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Mohammad H. Eslami Denis V. Rybin Gheorghe Doros Alik Farber 《Journal of vascular surgery》2017,65(1):65-74.e2
Objective
Despite vast improvement in the field of vascular surgery, elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair still leads to perioperative death. Patients with asymptomatic AAAs, therefore, would benefit from an individual risk assessment to help with decisions regarding operative intervention. The purpose of this study was to describe such a 30-day postoperative (POD) risk prediction model using American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) data.Methods
The NSQIP database (2005-2011) was queried for patients undergoing elective AAA repair using open or endovascular techniques. Clinical variables and known predictors of mortality were included in a full prediction model. These variables included procedure type, patient's age, functional dependence and comorbidities, and surgeon's specialty. Backward elimination with alpha-level of 0.2 was used to construct a parsimonious model. Model discrimination was evaluated in equally sized risk quintiles.Results
The overall mortality rate for 18,917 elective AAA patients was 1.7%. In this model, surgeon's specialty was not predictive of POD. The most significant factors affecting POD included open repair (odds ratio [OR], 2.712; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.119-3.469; P < .001), age >70 (OR, 2.243; 95% CI, 1.695-3.033; P < .001), functional dependency (OR, 2.290; 95% CI, 1.442-3.637; P < .001), creatinine above 2.0 mg/dL (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.403-3.142; P < .001) and low hematocrit levels (OR, 2.157; 95% CI, 1.365-3.408; P = .001).The discriminating ability of the NSQIP model was reasonable (C-statistic = 0.751) and corrected to 0.736 after internal validation. The NSQIP model performed well predicting mortality among risk-group quintiles.Conclusions
The NSQIP risk prediction model is a robust vehicle to predict POD among patient undergoing elective AAA repair. This model can be used for risk stratification of patients undergoing elective AAA repair. 相似文献2.
Natalie Domenick Sridharan Partha Thirumala Rabih Chaer Jeffrey Balzer Becky Long Donald Crammond Michel Makaroun Efthymios Avgerinos 《Journal of vascular surgery》2018,67(1):191-198
Objective
The efficacy of selective shunting during carotid endarterectomy (CEA) using intraoperative monitoring (IOM) for detection of cerebral ischemia is well established. There is mounting evidence that monitoring of both electroencephalography (EEG) and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEPs) increases the sensitivity of cerebral ischemia detection. Predictors of cerebral ischemia requiring selective shunt placement using IOM of both EEG and SSEPs have not been previously identified.Methods
Consecutive patients who underwent CEA between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2010, were retrospectively analyzed. Primary end points were IOM changes at any time during the operation or IOM changes with carotid cross-clamping. Risk factors assessed included demographics; baseline comorbidities; severity of ipsilateral and contralateral disease; symptomatic status; and use of statin, antiplatelet, and beta-blocker medications. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used for analysis.Results
During the 11-year study period, a total of 758 patients underwent 804 CEAs (mean age, 70.6 ± 9.5 years; 59.8% male; 39.2% symptomatic) using IOM of both SSEPs and EEG for selective shunting guidance. Postoperative stroke rate was 1.37%; 27.1% of patients had significant SSEP or EEG changes, and 49.1% of these were clamp induced (within 5 minutes of cross-clamping). Of these patients, 83.2% received a shunt (11.4% overall). The most common reason that a shunt was not placed after cross-clamp-induced changes was that the changes resolved with further blood pressure elevation (8 of 17 patients). Clamp-induced IOM changes were predictive of postoperative stroke (odds ratio [OR], 5.5; P = .005). Risk factors for clamp-induced IOM changes were contralateral carotid occlusion (OR, 2.5; P = .01), symptomatic stenosis (OR, 1.8; P = .006), and diabetes (OR, 1.6; P = .03), whereas there was a trend toward increased risk with female sex (OR, 1.5; P = .08). Risk factors for any IOM change (clamp and nonclamp induced) were symptomatic carotid stenosis (OR, 1.8; P < .001), use of beta blockers (OR, 1.5; P = .03), and female sex (OR, 1.5; P = .02).Conclusions
Whereas some patients can be expected to experience IOM changes by monitoring of SSEPs and EEG, a much smaller percentage will receive a shunt. Contralateral carotid occlusion, symptomatic stenosis, diabetes, and female sex increase the risk of clamp-induced IOM changes and should be anticipated to need a shunt. Patients receiving beta blockers are likely to experience IOM changes during the operation that are not associated with clamping. 相似文献3.
Natalie Domenick Sridharan Larry Fish Lan Yu Steven Weisbord Manisha Jhamb Michel S. Makaroun Theodore H. Yuo 《Journal of vascular surgery》2018,67(1):229-235
Objective
In addition to age and comorbidities, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is known to predict mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Understanding the association of vascular access type with HRQOL can help surgeons to provide patient-centered dialysis access recommendations. We sought to understand the impact of HD access type on HRQOL.Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional prospective study of community-dwelling prevalent HD patients in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We assessed patient satisfaction with their access using the Vascular Access Questionnaire (VAQ) and HRQOL with the Short Form Health Survey. We compared access satisfaction and HRQOL across access types. We used logistic regression modeling to evaluate the association of access type with satisfaction and multivariate analysis of variance to evaluate the association of both of these variables on HRQOL.Results
We surveyed 77 patients. The mean age was 61.8 ± 15.9 years. Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) was used by 62.3%, tunneled dialysis catheter (TDC) by 23.4%, and arteriovenous graft (AVG) by 14.3%. There was a significant difference in satisfaction by access type with lowest median VAQ score (indicating highest satisfaction) in patients with AVF followed by TDC and AVG (4.5 vs 6.5 vs 7.0; P = .013). Defining a VAQ score of <7 to denote satisfaction, AVF patients were more likely to be satisfied with their access, compared with TDC or AVG (77% vs 56% vs 55%; P = NS). Multivariate regression analysis yielded a model that predicted 46% of the variance of VAQ score; important predictors of dissatisfaction included <1 year on dialysis (β = 3.36; P < .001), increasing number of access-related hospital admissions in the last year (β = 1.69; P < .001), and AVG (β = 1.72; P = .04) or TDC (β = 1.67; P = .02) access. Mean physical and mental QOL scores (the composite scores of Short Form Health Survey) were not different by access type (P = .49; P = .41). In an additive multivariate analysis of variance with the two composite QOL scores as dependent variables, 25.8% of the generalized variance in HRQOL (effect size) was accounted for by access satisfaction with only an additional 3% accounted for by access type.Conclusions
HD patients experience greatest satisfaction with fistula, and access satisfaction is significantly associated with better HRQOL. Controlling for access satisfaction, there is no significant independent association of access type on HRQOL. Future research should investigate the relationship between access satisfaction, adherence to dialysis regimens, mortality, and the consequent implications for patient-centered care. 相似文献4.
Andrew E. Leake Michael A. Segal Rabih A. Chaer Mohammad H. Eslami Georges Al-Khoury Michel S. Makaroun Efthymios D. Avgerinos 《Journal of vascular surgery》2017,65(1):246-256.e2
Objective
Endovascular popliteal artery aneurysm repair (EPAR) is increasingly used over open surgical repair (OPAR). The purpose of this study was to analyze the available literature on their comparative outcomes.Methods
The PubMed and Embase databases were searched to identify studies comparing OPAR and EPAR. Studies with only one treatment and fewer than five patients were excluded. Demographics and outcomes were collected. Bias risk was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Results were computed from random-effects meta-analyses using the DerSimonian-Laird algorithm.Results
A total of 14 studies were identified encompassing 4880 popliteal artery aneurysm repairs (OPAR, 3915; EPAR, 1210) during the last decade. OPAR patients were younger (standard mean difference, ?0.798 [?0.798 to ?1.108]; P < .001) and more likely to have worse tibial runoff (odds ratio [OR], 1.949 (1.15-3.31); P = .013) than EPAR patients. OPAR had higher odds of wound complications (OR, 5.182 [2.191-12.256]; P < .001) and lower odds of thrombotic complications (OR, 0.362 [0.155-0.848]; P < .001). OPAR had longer length of stay (standardized mean difference, 2.158 [1.225-3.090]; P < .001) and fewer reinterventions (OR, 0.275 [0.166-0.454]; P < .001). Primary patency was better for OPAR at 1 year and 3 years (relative risk, 0.607 [P = .01] and 0.580 [P = .006], respectively). There was no difference in secondary patency at 1 year and 3 years (0.770 [P = .458] and 0.642 [P = .073], respectively).Conclusions
EPAR has a lower wound complication rate and shorter length of hospital stay compared with OPAR. This comes at the cost of inferior primary patency but not secondary patency out to 3 years. Studies reporting long-term outcomes are lacking and necessary. 相似文献5.
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Natalie D. Sridharan Aureline Boitet Kenneth Smith Kathy Noorbakhsh Efthymios Avgerinos Mohammad H. Eslami Michel Makaroun Rabih Chaer 《Journal of vascular surgery》2018,67(1):343-352
Objective
Drug-coated balloons (DCBs) may increase durability of endovascular treatment of superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease while avoiding stent-related risks. The purpose of this study was to use meta-analytic data of DCB studies to compare the cost-effectiveness of potential SFA treatments: DCB, drug-eluting stent (DES), plain old balloon angioplasty (POBA), or bare-metal stent (BMS).Methods
A search for randomized controlled trials comparing DCB with POBA for treatment of SFA disease was performed. Hazard ratios were extracted to account for the time-to-event primary outcome of target lesion revascularization. Odds ratios were calculated for the secondary outcomes of primary patency (PP) and major amputation. Incorporating pooled data from the meta-analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, assuming a payer perspective, used a decision model to simulate patency at 1 year and 2 years for each index treatment modality: POBA, BMS, DCB, or DES. Costs were based on current Medicare outpatient reimbursement rates.Results
Eight studies (1352 patients) met inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. DCB outperformed POBA with respect to target lesion revascularization over time (pooled hazard ratio, 0.41; P < .001). Risk of major amputation at 12 months was not significantly different between groups. There was significantly improved 1-year PP in the DCB group compared with POBA (pooled odds ratio, 3.30; P < .001). In the decision model, the highest PP at 1 year was seen in the DES index therapy strategy (79%), followed by DCB (74%), BMS (71%), and POBA (64%). With a baseline cost of $9259.39 per patent limb at 1 year in the POBA-first group, the incremental cost per patent limb for each other strategy compared with POBA was calculated: $14,136.10/additional patent limb for DCB, $38,549.80/limb for DES, and $59,748,85/limb for BMS. The primary BMS option is dominated by being more expensive and less effective than DCB. Compared directly with DCB, DES costs $87,377.20 per additional patent limb at 1 year. Based on the projected PP at 1 year in the decision model, the number needed to treat for DES compared with DCB is 20. At current reimbursement, the use of more than two DCBs per procedure would no longer be cost-effective compared with DES. At 2 years, DCB emerges as the most cost-effective index strategy with the lowest overall cost and highest patency rates over that time horizon.Conclusions
Current data and reimbursements support the use of DCB as a cost-effective strategy for endovascular intervention in the SFA; any additional effectiveness of DES comes at a high price. Use of more than one DCB per intervention significantly decreases cost-effectiveness. 相似文献11.
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Elizabeth A. Genovese Larry Fish Rabih A. Chaer Michel S. Makaroun Donald T. Baril 《Journal of vascular surgery》2017,65(2):459-470
Objective
Postoperative respiratory adverse events (RAEs) are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality in general surgery, however, little is known about these complications in the vascular surgery population, a frail subset with multiple comorbidities. The objective of this study was to describe the contemporary incidence of RAEs in vascular surgery patients, the risk factors for this complication, and the overall impact of RAEs on patient outcomes.Methods
The Vascular Quality Initiative was queried (2003-2014) for patients who underwent endovascular abdominal aortic repair, open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, thoracic endovascular aortic repair, suprainguinal bypass, or infrainguinal bypass. A mixed-effects logistic regression model determined the independent risk factors for RAEs. Using a random 85% of the cohort, a risk prediction score for RAEs was created, and the score was validated using the remaining 15% of the cohort, comparing the predicted to the actual incidence of RAE and determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The independent risk of in-hospital mortality and discharge to a nursing facility associated with RAEs was determined using a mixed-effects logistic regression to control for baseline patient characteristics, operative variables, and other postoperative adverse events.Results
The cohort consisted of 52,562 patients, with a 5.4% incidence of RAEs. The highest rates of RAEs were seen in current smokers (6.1%), recent acute myocardial infarction (10.1%), symptomatic congestive heart failure (9.9%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease requiring oxygen therapy (11.0%), urgent and emergent procedures (6.4% and 25.9%, respectively), open abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs (17.6%), in situ suprainguinal bypasses (9.68%), and thoracic endovascular aortic repairs (9.6%). The variables included in the risk prediction score were age, body mass index, smoking status, congestive heart failure severity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease severity, degree of renal insufficiency, ambulatory status, transfer status, urgency, and operative type. The predicted compared with the actual RAE incidence were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.943 (P < .0001) and a c-statistic = 0.818. RAEs had a significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality (25.4% vs 1.2%; P < .0001; adjusted odds ratio, 5.85; P < .0001), and discharge to a nursing facility (57.8% vs 19.0%; P < .0001; adjusted odds ratio, 3.14; P < .0001).Conclusions
RAEs are frequent and one of the strongest risk factors for in-hospital mortality and inability to be discharged home. Our risk prediction score accurately stratifies patients based on key demographics, comorbidities, presentation, and operative type that can be used to guide patient counseling, preoperative optimization, and postoperative management. Furthermore, it may be useful in developing quality benchmarks for RAE following major vascular surgery. 相似文献13.
Mohammad H. Eslami Denis V. Rybin Gheorghe Doros Jeffrey J. Siracuse Alik Farber 《Journal of vascular surgery》2018,67(1):143-150
Objective
The purpose of this study is to externally validate a recently reported Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) risk predictive model of postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to compare its predictive ability across different patients' risk categories and against the established risk predictive models using the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) AAA sample.Methods
The VQI AAA database (2010-2015) was queried for patients who underwent elective AAA repair. The VSGNE cases were excluded from the VQI sample. The external validation of a recently published VSGNE AAA risk predictive model, which includes only preoperative variables (age, gender, history of coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, creatinine levels, and aneurysm size) and planned type of repair, was performed using the VQI elective AAA repair sample. The predictive value of the model was assessed via the C-statistic. Hosmer-Lemeshow method was used to assess calibration and goodness of fit. This model was then compared with the Medicare, Vascular Governance Northwest model, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score for predicting mortality in VQI sample. The Vuong test was performed to compare the model fit between the models. Model discrimination was assessed in different risk group VQI quintiles.Results
Data from 4431 cases from the VSGNE sample with the overall mortality rate of 1.4% was used to develop the model. The internally validated VSGNE model showed a very high discriminating ability in predicting mortality (C = 0.822) and good model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .309) among the VSGNE elective AAA repair sample. External validation on 16,989 VQI cases with an overall 0.9% mortality rate showed very robust predictive ability of mortality (C = 0.802). Vuong tests yielded a significant fit difference favoring the VSGNE over then Medicare model (C = 0.780), Vascular Governance Northwest (0.774), and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (0.639). Across the 5 risk quintiles, the VSGNE model predicted observed mortality significantly with great accuracy.Conclusions
This simple VSGNE AAA risk predictive model showed very high discriminative ability in predicting mortality after elective AAA repair among a large external independent sample of AAA cases performed by a diverse array of physicians nationwide. The risk score based on this simple VSGNE model can reliably stratify patients according to their risk of mortality after elective AAA repair better than other established models. 相似文献14.
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Abhisekh Mohapatra Darve Robinson Othman Malak Michael C. Madigan Efthimios D. Avgerinos Rabih A. Chaer Michael J. Singh Michel S. Makaroun 《Journal of vascular surgery》2019,69(6):1766-1775
ObjectiveOpen procedures are often required for late complications after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). Our aim was to describe the indications for open interventions and their postoperative outcomes and to specifically examine our experience with limited conversions in which problem endoleaks are targeted without endograft explantation.MethodsWe reviewed patients from 2002 to 2017 who underwent any surgical abdominal aortic operation after a previous EVAR. Baseline characteristics, preoperative imaging, procedural details, and postoperative outcomes were reviewed. The primary end point was 30-day mortality.ResultsThere were 102 patients who underwent open conversion 3.8 ± 3.1 years after EVAR. The numbers increased significantly in recent years, with 18 cases performed in 2016; 48.5% of patients had undergone 1.9 ± 1.0 prior endovascular interventions. The indication for surgical conversion was an endoleak in 85 patients and infection in 15. One patient had a limb occlusion and another a proximal aneurysm. The 30-day mortality was 6.2% in 65 patients treated electively for endoleak but higher in 20 ruptures (40.0%) and 15 infections (40.0%). In a multivariate logistic regression model, independent predictors of 30-day mortality were rupture (odds ratio [OR], 6.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-25.60; P = .005), endograft infection (OR, 8.48; 95% CI, 1.99-36.20; P = .004), and use of a supraceliac clamp (OR, 4.80; 95% CI, 1.47-15.66; P = .009). Transient acute kidney injury (12.8%) and prolonged intubation (11.8%) were the most common postoperative complications. In 65 patients treated for endoleak without rupture, 37 underwent endograft explantation, whereas 28 had a graft-preserving intervention (branch vessel ligation for type II endoleak in 26, external banding of the aneurysm neck for type IA endoleak in 8). Mortality was 8.1% when the endograft was explanted and 3.6% when it was not (P = .63). During 3.0 ± 3.5 years of follow-up, there was one reintervention after endograft explantation (for rupture secondary to type IB endoleak) and two reinterventions after graft preservation (for a new type IA endoleak and a new type II endoleak). Survival was 87.4% at 1 year and 70.9% at 5 years.ConclusionsOpen conversion is playing an increasing role in the management of late EVAR complications. Endoleaks treated electively by open conversion are reasonably safe and show good midterm durability, even with graft-preserving interventions that avoid endograft explantation. 相似文献
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