北京市城区居民癌症发病率的变化及其趋势预测

利用长期进行的癌症发病登记报告资料进行了系统动态分析，根据癌症发病率时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，进而对北京地区２００１年癌症发病趋势做出预测。分析结果表明：到２００１年北京地区癌症发病率呈逐年升高的趋势，从１９９１～２００１年全部恶性肿瘤世界标化发病率将从１６２．５／１０万上升到１７９．９／１０万。不同部位恶性肿瘤的构成比将发生很大变化，肺癌和女性乳腺癌将出现迅速升高，肝癌、肠癌发病率亦呈上升趋势，食管癌、宫颈癌发病率持续下降，胃癌开始出现下降趋势。这些癌情变化信息为北京市癌症预防与控制研究提供科学依据。     

北京市城区居民癌症发病率的变化及其趋势观测

利用长期进行的癌症发病登记报告资料进行了系统动态分析，根据癌症发病率时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，进而对北京地区２００１年癌症发病趋势做出预测。分析结果表明：到２００１年北京地区癌症发病率呈逐年升高的趋势，从１９９１￣２００１年全部恶性肿瘤世界标化发病率将从１６２．５／１０万。不同部位恶性肿瘤的构成比将发生很大变化，肺癌和女性乳腺癌将出现迅速升高，肝癌、肠癌发病率亦呈上升趋势，食管癌、宫     

2001年北京地区癌症死亡预测

利用长期进行的恶性肿瘤登记报告资料，对北京地区１９８０－１９９１年恶性肿瘤死亡率变化进行了动态分析，找出时间序列变化的规律，利用灰色系统理论模型对北京地区２００１年癌症流行趋势做出预测，为癌症预防下控制策略、措施的研究提供科学依据。     

化学物质与癌症

本文就癌症发展趋势，致癌的主要危险因素，动物实验研究结果进行了综述，目前除烟草引起的肺癌死亡率上升外，其他一些癌症的发病率呈下降趋势；如把吸烟引起的癌症除外，因癌症引起的全死亡率是下降的。但统计学资料表明，某些癌症发病率呈上升趋势，这可能与普查诊断水平提高和疾病登记系统更为完善有一定的关系。人类的主要致癌危险因素包括膳食、老龄化、慢性炎症、吸烟等。因此人类许多癌症可以通过改变生活习惯或采用医疗干预     

谁是癌症中的“头号杀手”

近30年来，国内癌症的发病率和死亡率都呈明显上升趋势。在某些城镇居民中，癌症已经成为死因的首位。随着我国人口老龄化及生态环境、生活方式的改变，预计在未来的20～30年中，我国癌症的发病率和死亡率将持续上升。目前，我国癌症的发病率每年递增2．5％，死亡率每年递增1．8％；农村的上升速度明显高于城市。与此同时，国内高发癌症的排名也出现了明显变化。     

长乐县胃癌死亡率时间序列分析及预测

本文对长乐县１９８２－１９９３年胃癌死亡率进行时间序列分析，表明长乐县男女性胃癌死亡率均呈下降趋势。应用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型对１９９４－１９９８年长乐县胃癌死亡率进行预测，男性胃癌死亡率将逐年明显下降，女性变动不大。     

Lee-Carter模型在苏州市消化道癌症死亡分析中的应用

目的  通过建立Lee-Carter模型,分析苏州市2002-2016年消化道癌症的死亡特征和变化趋势。 方法  采用苏州市死因监测点居民的消化道癌症死亡数据,计算死亡率和标化死亡率,并建立Lee-Carter死亡率预测模型,进行死亡率的趋势分析。 结果  以苏州市2012-2016年消化道癌症死亡率数据检验模型的应用效果,其平均绝对百分误差（mean absolute percentage error,MAPE）值在年龄和年份水平上分别为2.48%、4.13%,表明模型预测效果较佳;2002-2016年消化道癌症总体的死亡指数呈下降趋势,其中上消化道癌症死亡指数呈现下降趋势,下消化道癌症死亡指数呈现上升趋势;上消化道癌症死亡率是下消化道癌症死亡率的4.23倍,男性死亡率是女性死亡率的2.17倍。 结论  苏州市居民消化道癌症死亡率总体呈逐年下降趋势,其中下消化道癌症男性死亡率呈逐年上升趋势。本研究发现苏州市已出现人口老龄化现象,其医疗卫生水平逐年提高。     

1987～2004年广东省四会市肺癌发病和死亡变化趋势分析

目的了解广东省四会市1987年至2004年间肺癌发病及死亡的变化趋势，并根据现有的发病数据预测今后肺癌的发病趋势。方法收集广东省四会市1987～2004年全肿瘤发病登记系统的肺癌发病和死亡数据和人口数据，计算各年肺癌标化发病率和死亡率，用对数线性模型拟合各年发病率并进行预测。结果广东省四会市的肺癌年发病粗率为21．462／10万，死亡粗率为16．691／10万；男性肺癌年发病粗率为27．384／10万，死亡粗率为21．447／10万；女性肺癌年发病粗率为10．344／10万，死亡粗率为7．877／10万。肺癌发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势，2004年与1987年比，发病率上升138．318％；死亡率上升57．502％。1987～1995年，肺癌年标化死亡率与标化发病率基本一致；1995～2004年，标化死亡率比标化发病率有所下降，尤其是女性。肺癌55岁以后的各年龄别发病率和死亡率有不同程度的上升，肺癌发病呈现年轻化趋势。对数线性模型预测今后四年四会市肺癌发病率将持续上升。结论由于肺癌发病率和死亡率的逐年上升趋势和发病年轻化，肺癌的防治工作刻不容缓。     

乳腺癌不能成为胸中永远的痛

发病率上升，死亡率下降，治疗越来越有效 癌症仅次于心血管疾病，成为死亡原因的第一位。乳腺癌是全球发病率最高的癌症之一，仅次于肺癌排在第二位，是很常见的一种恶性肿瘤，全球每年有超过100万妇女患上乳腺癌。北美、西欧是乳腺癌的高发区，美国的发病率每10万人中有110．6个患者。但是他们现在都出现了新发病例增多，但死亡率下降的趋势，说明早期诊断、手术后使用化疗、生物治疗和内分泌治疗等综合治疗手段和采用更先进的手术和放射治疗方式对乳腺癌的治疗越来越奏效。乳腺癌不是死亡率最高的癌症，个体差异大、生长期相对较慢．有很长的时间可以用来诊断和治疗，有很大的治疗空间。     

山东省城乡居民恶性肿瘤死亡水平的变化及其趋势预测

对山东省城乡居民１９８２～１９９６年恶性肿瘤死亡率进行了动态分析，并根据时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，对山东省城乡１９９７～２００６年恶性肿瘤流行趋势做出预测。分析结果表明，山东省城、乡居民１９８２～２００６年恶性肿瘤世界人口年龄标化死亡率将分别从１６６．３０／１０万、１３７．５／１０万上升至２０３．６７／１０万、１８２．２６／１０万。肺癌、肠癌、女性乳腺癌死亡率呈大幅度持续升高，胃癌、宫颈癌缓慢下降，食管癌死亡率城市降低，农村则呈升高之势。     

某特殊医院人群恶性肿瘤发病趋势分析

目的 了解某特殊职业人群恶性肿瘤发病趋势，探讨其影响因素，促进职工保健工作的开展。方法 回顾性调查北京市某肿瘤医院职工1991～2001年所有恶性肿瘤新发病例，并用灰色模型预测北京市近年发病率作对比。结果 该院恶性肿瘤实际累积发病率比预期累积发病率高12．8％，其中男性低12．9％，女性高39．2％。若不计近3年普查发现的5名早期癌，则累积发病率比预期累积发病率低1％，其中男性低23．9％，女性高22．5％。结论 该院总的发病趋势与北京市相同。其中，男职工低于北京市水平，女职工约高于北京市水平．但差异均无显著件。     

Estimation and projections of cancer prevalence from cancer registry data

A method, PIAMOD (Prevalence, Incidence, Analysis MODel), which allows the estimation and projection of cancer prevalence patterns by using cancer registry incidence and survival data is presented. As a first step the method involves the fit of incidence data by an age, period and cohort model to derive incidence projections. Prevalence is then estimated from modelled incidence and survival estimates. Cancer mortality is derived as a third step from modelled incidence, prevalence and survival. An application to female breast cancer is given for the Connecticut State by using data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry (CTR), 1973-1993. The age, period and cohort model fitted incidence quite well and allowed us to derive long-term projections up to 2030. Patients' survival was also projected to future years according to a scenario approach based on two extreme hypotheses: steady, that is, no more improvements after 1993 (conservative), and continuously improving at the same rate as during the observation period. Age-standardized estimated incidence shows a changing trend around the year 2005, when it starts decreasing. Age-standardized prevalence is expected to increase and change trend at a later date. Breast cancer mortality is projected as decreasing, as the combined result of no further increase in incidence and improving cancer patients' survival. An easy-to-use PIAMOD software package, on which work is in progress, will be made available to individual cancer registries and/or health planning institutions or authorities once it is developed. The use of the PIAMOD method for cancer registries will allow them to provide results of paramount importance for the whole community involved in the assessment of future disease burden scenarios in an evolving society.     

2001—2013年海门市居民肺癌发病与死亡情况

目的分析2001—2013年海门市居民肺癌发病与死亡趋势,为制定肺癌预防和控制措施提供依据。方法根据肿瘤信息系统登记的肺癌发病与死亡资料统计分析海门市居民肺癌的发病率、死亡率、中国人口标化率（中标率）、世界人口标化率（世标率）、年龄别发病率和死亡率及发病死亡年平均增长速度等指标。结果男女合计肺癌发病率72.55/10万,中标率和世标率分别为56.55/10万和42.65/10万,占全部癌症新发病例的21.73%;位居各类癌症之首。肺癌发病率从2001年的57.13/10万上升至2013的92.37/10万,以年平均3.77%的速度上升,2013年比2001年上升了61.68%。男女合计肺癌死亡率为62.41/10万,中标率和世标率分别为47.21/10万和35.53/10万。肺癌死亡率位居各类癌症死亡的第1位。2013年肺癌死亡率为75.74/10万,较2001年的46.40/10万上升了63.25%,以年平均3.84%的速度上升。结论肺癌发病率、死亡率均位居海门市癌症发病与死亡的第1位,且呈逐年上升趋势,人口老龄化、环境污染、吸烟及个人不良生活习惯等是造就肺癌发病率和死亡率增高的重要因素,当务之急应加强肺癌预防与控制工作。     

Trend in Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Fukushima From 2008 Through 2015

BackgroundCancer incidence in Fukushima Prefecture, especially thyroid cancer, has been a public concern, since the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants accident following the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011; however, cancer incidence for Fukushima residents before and after the accident based on a population-based cancer registry (PBCR) has not been known worldwide.MethodsWe obtained the corrected-incidence data for invasive cancers newly diagnosed from 2008 through 2015 from the Fukushima Cancer Registry. We checked data quality indicators for PBCRs to confirm comparability. We calculated age-standardized annual incidence and mortality of cancer for all-site, thyroid, and leukemia by calendar year and sex, as we did for Tochigi Prefecture and all of Japan as references for comparison. We applied joinpoint trend analysis to test an apparent trend in incidence and mortality.ResultsThe corrected incidence data from the Fukushima Cancer Registry had sufficient quality comparable to other PBCRs. For the age-standardized annual incidence by sex and cancer type in Fukushima and Tochigi, we did not detect any joinpoint in trend with statistical significance. Cancer incidence gently increased from 2008 through 2015 nationwide. Incidence and mortality of cancer for Fukushima before the accident was very close to that for Tochigi.ConclusionsWe interpreted the incidence statistics of cancer for Fukushima residents from 2008 through 2015. Our results will provide fundamental statistics for subsequent researchers to assess the relationship between the disaster and cancer incidence among Fukushima residents in the long term.Key words: cancer, incidence, population-based cancer registry     

Cancer incidence and mortality in France over the 1980–2012 period: Solid tumors

BackgroundCancer incidence and mortality estimates for 19 cancers (among solid tumors) are presented for France between 1980 and 2012.MethodsIncidence data were collected from 21 local registries and correspond to invasive cancers diagnosed between 1975 and 2009. Mortality data for the same period were provided by the Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale. The national incidence estimates were based on the use of mortality as a correlate of incidence. The observed incidence and mortality data were modeled using an age-period-cohort model. The numbers of incident cases and deaths for 2010–2012 are the result of short-term projections.ResultsIn 2012, the study estimated that 355,000 new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 148,000 deaths from cancer occurred in France. The incidence trend was not linear over the study period. After a constant increase from 1980 onwards, the incidence of cancer in men declined between 2005 and 2012. This recent decrease is largely related to the reduction in the incidence of prostate cancer. In women, the rates stabilized, mainly due to a change in breast cancer incidence. Mortality from most cancer types declined over the study period. A combined analysis of incidence and mortality by cancer site distinguished cancers with declining incidence and mortality (e.g., stomach) and cancers with increasing incidence and mortality (e.g., lung cancer in women). Some other cancers had rising incidence but declining mortality (e.g., thyroid).ConclusionThis study reveals recent changes in cancer incidence trends, particularly regarding breast and prostate cancers.     

北京市肺癌发病率、死亡率和生存率分析

根据北京市肿瘤登记报告所积累的资料,对1977~1986年的肺癌病例进行了核实整理、随防和分析。分析结果表明:近十年来北京市肺癌居各种恶件肿瘤发病率和死亡率的首位,且有逐年上升的趋势。1982~1984年北京市城区居民中男性肺癌年龄调整发病率为33.0/10万,占男性全部癌瘤发病总数的20.3%,女性肺癌调整发病率为21.1/10万,占女性全部癌瘤的16.1%。肺癌调整发病率性比值(男:女)为1.56。以北京市肺癌与部分国家和地区的肺癌比较,结果表明北京市肺癌流行特征是性比值低,女性肺癌相对突出。天津、上海和北京女性肺癌水平接近,同属于高发之列。     

2005-2013年中国女性乳腺癌发病及死亡趋势分析

目的  分析《中国肿瘤登记年报》中2005-2013年女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的变化趋势,为开展乳腺癌防治提供参考。 方法  提取2005-2013年中国女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的全部记录;运用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的变化趋势。 结果  2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌发病率水平高于农村,城市发病率变化趋势平稳（t=-0.2,P=0.828）,农村发病率呈现上升趋势（t=7.8,P<0.001）;城市和农村发病率高峰分别为50~岁、45~岁年龄组。2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌死亡率水平高于农村,城市死亡率变化趋势平稳（t=0.8,P=0.458）,农村死亡率上升趋势明显（t=3.3,P=0.014）;城市女性死亡率在30岁之后开始上升,75岁之后加速上升,农村女性死亡率在30岁之后开始上升,55~69岁变化趋于平稳,70岁后又开始上升。 结论  2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌发病率及死亡率均高于农村女性,农村女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率上升趋势明显,应积极制定并完善乳腺癌防治措施。     

Colorectal cancers in Martinique: incidence and mortality rates over a period of 20 years

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in Western countries, with an incidence progressively increasing in developing countries. Worldwide, colorectal cancer is the second and third leading cause of death by cancer in females and males respectively. According to the Martinique Cancer Register data, colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death by cancer in women, and the fourth in men. Colorectal cancer exhibits a variable distribution worldwide. This study was conducted to observe variations in colorectal incidence and mortality rates observed over a twenty-year period. Such data will be useful for monitoring changing trends related to onset of an organized screening program. METHOD: Patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed from 1981 to 2000 in Martinique were included in this study. Data are obtained from the Martinique Cancer Register. RESULTS: The incidence of colorectal cancer in Martinique (16/100,000 and 17/100,000 in the female and male population respectively in the year 2000) is intermediary compared with other countries worlwide. There is a current trend towards increased incidence and mortality. The incidence has increased for cancers localized in the proximal colon, the sigmoid colon and the rectum. CONCLUSION: The increasing incidence of colorectal cancer in all localisations raises concern in Martinique. A significant predominance of colorectal cancer incidence among the male population in Martinique was not observed. Gender and age do not appear to imply any preferential localisation of colorectal cancer.