Development of a predictive prognostic rule for early assessment of COVID-19 patients in primary care settings

ObjectiveTo investigate possible early prognostic factors among middle-aged and older adult and explore prognostic rules stratifying risk of patients.DesignCommunity-based retrospective cohort.SettingPrimary Health Care Tarragona region.Participants282 community-dwelling symptomatic patients ≥50 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (hospitalised and/or outpatient) during March-June 2020 in Tarragona (Southern Catalonia, Spain).Main outcome measurementsRelationship between demographics, pre-existing comorbidities and early symptomatology (first 5-days) and risk of suffering critical outcome (ICU-admission/death) across clinical course was evaluated by logistic regression analyses, and simple predictive models were developed.ResultsOf the 282 cases (mean age: 65.9 years; 140 men), 154 (54.6%) were hospitalised (30 ICU-admitted) and 45 (16%) deceased. Median time follow-up in clinical course was 31 days (range: 30–150) for survivors and 14 days (range: 1–81) for deceased patients. In crude analyses, increasing age, male sex, some comorbidities (renal, respiratory or cardiac disease, diabetes and hypertension) and symptoms (confusion, dyspnoea) were associated with an increased risk to suffer critical outcome, whereas other symptoms (rinorrhea, myalgias, headache, anosmia/disgeusia) were related with reduced risk. After multivariable-adjustment only age/years (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01–1.07; p = 0.004), confusion (OR: 5.33; 95% CI: 1.54–18.48; p = 0.008), dyspnoea (OR: 5.41; 95% CI: 2.74–10.69; p < 0.001) and myalgias (OR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.10–0.93; p = 0.038) remained significantly associated with increased or reduced risk. A proposed CD65-M prognostic rule (acronym of above mentioned 4 variables) showed a good correlation with the risk of suffering critical outcome (area under ROC curve: 0.828; 95% CI: 0.774–0.882).ConclusionClinical course of COVID-19 is early unpredictable, but simple clinical tools as the proposed CD65-M rule (pending external validation) may be helpful assessing these patients in primary care settings.     

Changes in Satisfaction with Meaningful Activities and Onset of Depressive Symptoms among Community-Dwelling Japanese Older Adults: A Population-Based Study Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

ObjectivesThis study aimed to clarify the association between changes in satisfaction with meaningful activities and the occurrence of depressive symptoms before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.DesignA population-based prospective cohort study (Tarumizu Study).Setting and ParticipantsA total of 231 community-dwelling older adults aged ≥65 years without depressive symptoms at baseline.MethodsThe participants completed baseline (June to December 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic) and follow-up (September to December 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic) assessments. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) and defined by a GDS-15 score of ≥5. Participants selected meaningful activities from the 95 activities included in the Aid for Decision-Making in Occupation Choice, and their satisfaction levels were evaluated. Satisfaction with the most meaningful activities was assessed as to whether it was maintained/improved or decreased at follow-up.ResultsIn the follow-up survey, 31 (14.3%) participants reported the occurrence of depressive symptoms. Compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic, the rates of meaningful activities during the COVID-19 pandemic decreased for interpersonal interaction and social life and increased for leisure, sports, self-care, and domestic life. Logistic regression analysis revealed that changes in satisfaction with meaningful activity were associated with the occurrence of depressive symptoms after adjusting for demographic variables, baseline GDS scores, cognitive and physical status, and instrumental activities of daily living (odds ratio, 2.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.17–6.59, P = .020).Conclusions and ImplicationsTo avoid decreasing satisfaction with meaningful activities, supporting older adults may be protective against the occurrence of depressive symptoms. Our findings highlight the need for health care professionals to not only encourage older adults to participate in activities for their mental health but also consider whether the activities are meaningful or satisfying for them.