GM(1,1)模型在AIDS发病预测中的应用

目的 探讨应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测AIDS发病率的可行性.方法 应用灰色GM(1,1)模型对南宁市2004～2010年艾滋病发病率数据进行拟合,并外推预测.结果 所建模型,拟合精度高(C≈0.0888,P=1),可用于外推预测.结论 GM(1,1)模型可以很好地模拟和预测AIDS发病率在时间序列上的变化趋势,将其应用于AIDS发病预测是可行的.     

灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在我国梅毒发病预测研究中的应用

目的探讨我国1996-2009年梅毒的发病趋势,并进行短期预测,为科学制定梅毒防控措施,合理配置防控资源提供参考。方法根据全国1996-2009年梅毒报告发病率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:x(1)(t+1)=7.5437e0.206t-6.5437,模型的回代拟合精度指标后验差比值C为0.1929,小误差概率P为100%,拟合精度等级达最好级别。利用建立的模型预测2010-2012年全国梅毒的报告发病率分别达25.12/10万、30.86/10万、37.92/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合全国梅毒的发病率数据结果理想,可用于梅毒发病率的短期预测。     

灰色GM(1,1)模型在艾滋病、淋病、梅毒发病率预测研究中的应用

目的探讨应用GM(1,1)模型预测艾滋病、淋病、梅毒的可行性,为卫生部门制定相应的策略提供理论依据。方法运用GM(1,1)模型对全国2003-2012年艾滋病、淋病、梅毒发病率数据,进行建模拟合并预测变化趋势。结果建立艾滋病、淋病、梅毒发病率GM(1,1)预测模型,对全国发病率进行预测。艾滋病灰色GM(1,1)预测模型为:x(1)(k+1)=0.517e0.298k-0.437(C1=0.312,P1=1.000);淋病灰色GM(1,1)预测模型为:x(1)(k+1)=-144.792e-0.119k-158.882(C2=0.155,P2=1.000);梅毒灰色GM(1,1)预测模型为:x(1)(k+1)=59.727e0.154k-55.227(C3=0.197,P3=1.000)。上述三种模型拟合精度高,均可进行外推预测。通过三种模型预测2013-2015年全国艾滋病发病率可能分别为2.758/10万人、3.731/10万人、5.046/10万人;2013-2015年全国淋病发病率可能分别为5.552/10万人、4.928/10万人、4.374/10万人;2013-2015年全国梅毒发病率可能分别为39.660/10万人、46.251/10万人、53.937/10万人。结论 GM(1,1)模型可以很好的模拟和预测艾滋病、淋病、梅毒发病率在时间序列上的变化趋势。通过预测可知,艾滋病和梅毒的发病率可能会继续增加,而淋病的发病率可能会减少。应加强对性病的防治,降低性病对人群的危害。     

GM(1,1)、二次趋势和指数趋势模型在我国梅毒发病率预测中的比较研究

目的应用GM(1,1)、二次趋势和指数趋势模型对我国梅毒发病率进行预测,比较其预测效果。方法应用三种模型对我国2006-2012年梅毒年发病率数据进行拟合建模并选取最优模型进行外推预测。结果三种模型的MAPE均未超过10%,预测精度较好,其中二次趋势方程的MAPE为2.39%,拟合精度最佳,外推预测2013年、2014年梅毒发病率分别为32.90/10万、34.40/10万。结论二次趋势方程对我国2006-2012年梅毒的发病率数据拟合结果最理想,可用于梅毒发病率的短期预测。     

GM（1，1）模型在梅毒发病预测中的应用

目的探讨南昌市2008--2011年梅毒的发病趋势,并进行短期预测,为科学制定梅毒防控措施,合理配置防控资源提供参考。方法根据2008--2011年梅毒报告发病率数据,拟合灰色系统GM（1,1）预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为：Yi=-417．6401e-0.0534（t-1）＋438．3801,模型的回代拟合精度指标后验差比值C为0．1076,小误差概率P为100％,拟合精度等级达最好级别。利用建立的模型预测2012--2014年梅毒的报告发病率分别达18．5022／10万、17．5402／10万、16．6281／10万。结论GM（1,1）模型拟合梅毒的发病率数据结果理想,可用于梅毒发病率的短期预测。     

灰色序列模型在三级综合医院门诊人次预测中的应用

目的 探讨灰色序列模型GM(1,1)在三级综合性医院门诊人次预测中的应用,为综合性医院门诊量预测提供方法学参考.方法 采用灰色序列模型GM(1,1)对门诊人次进行预测拟合分析,计算其相对误差,并进行外推预测.结果 灰色序列模型GM(1,1)预测门诊人次与实际值拟合误差较小,模型预测精度评级为优(P>0.95).结论 灰...     

肺结核发病率预测中灰色模型的应用

[目的]运用灰色模型预测某市肺结核发病率。探索数据波动较大的情况下,适用的灰色模型预测方法。[方法]根据某市1997~2008年肺结核发病率数据分别建立动态GM(1,1),新陈代谢GM(1,1)和常规GM(1,1)。比较3种模型预测精度和准确性,选择合适肺结核发病率的预测模型并进行外推预测。[结果]检验性预测中,3种模型预测精度均为一级,预测值相对误差依次为-13.56%、-12.27%和-31.18%。将动态GM(1,1)和新陈代谢GM(1,1)作为该市肺结核发病率预测模型,两种预测模型的预测精度分别为二级和四级。采用动态GM(1,1)对该市肺结核发病率进行外推预测,2009年、2010年该市肺结核发病率分别为90.22/10万、89.66/10万。[结论]针对该市肺结核发病率数据波动较大的情况,采用动态GM(1,1)进行预测是比较适用的方法。     

应用灰色模型预测痢疾发病率

目的探讨灰色模型预测痢疾发病率的价值,为制定防治措施提供依据。方法应用灰色模型对1995～2002年痢疾发病率进行模型拟合和趋势预测,用决定系数R2检验拟合效果。结果痢疾发病率GM(1,1)灰色模型^Y(t)=869.13-791.55e-0.0725(t-1),决定系数R2是0.9942。预测今后两年痢疾发病率呈下降趋势。结论痢疾发病率GM(1,1)灰色模型拟合较为理想,结果满意。     

应用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型预测梅毒发病率

目的：探讨预测江苏省梅毒发病率的数学模型,为梅毒防制工作提供科学的参考依据。方法：利用2004年～2009年江苏省梅毒的发病率资料建立GM（1,1）预测模型,并进行模型评价。结果：梅毒发病率的GM（1,1）模型为^Yt=53.1596e0.2253（t-1）-42.9478（t=1,2,…,n）,拟合效果较好,同时利用模型外推预测了江苏省2010年的梅毒发病率。结论：如无较大规模的梅毒流行,运用此预测方法预测梅毒年发病率较为方便适用,2010年江苏省梅毒预测发病率为41.43/10万。     

灰色GM(1,1)模型在我国新生儿死亡率预测中的应用

目的应用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测我国新生儿死亡率的变化趋势,为新生儿的预防保健工作提供科学依据。方法利用我国2004-2013年新生儿死亡率资料建立灰色GM(1,1)模型,并对模型做精度评价,利用模型进行外推预测。结^果新生儿死亡率的预测模型为Y(t)=-151.012 5e~(0.090 9(1-t))+166.412 5,模型拟合精度为优,同时利用模型外推预测了今后3年我国的新生儿死亡率为5.79‰、5.28‰和4.83‰。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型可用于我国新生儿死亡率的趋势预测,我国新生儿死亡率呈下降趋势。     

GSTM1及GSTT1和GSTP1基因多态性对尿中1-羟基芘水平的影响

目的 研究GSTM1、GSTT1和GSTP1基因多态性对多环芳烃接触工人尿中1-羟基芘(1-OHP)水平的影响.方法 分别选取2个炼焦厂共447名多环芳烃职业接触工人(接触组)和某线材厂220名非职业接触工人(对照组)作为研究对象,采用高效液相色谱法测定尿中1-OHP水平,采用线性回归统计模型分析GSTM1和GSTT1缺失型及GSTP1 I105V位点的多态性对不同人群尿中1-OHP水平的修饰作用.结果 接触组工人尿中1-OHP浓度为4.61 μmol/mol Cr,明显高于对照组(0.34μmol/mol Cr),差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05).接触类别和吸烟分别是影响尿中1-OHP水平的主要因素,在控制各混杂因素的影响后,线性回归分析显示,接触组尿中1-OHP水平和GSTP1 I105V位点多态性有关(单基因分析,P=0.012;多基因分析,P=0.011),对总体样本,单基因模型和多基因模型均显示,尿中1-OHP水平可能和GSTT1缺失型多态有关(P=0.055),多基因交互作用分析显示,GSTT1和GSTP1基因多态对接触组尿中1-OHP水平具有交互作用.结论 谷胱甘肽硫转移酶(GSTs)基因的多态性对接触多环芳烃工人尿中1-OHP水平有影响.

Abstract：

Objective To investigate the modification of GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 gene polymorphisms on urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) excretions in workers under different exposure levels. Methods Four hundred and forty-seven occupationally exposed workers from two coking plants and 220 control workers from a wire rod plant were genotyped to analyze the modification of GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 gene polymorphisms on urinary 1-OHP excretions. Results The urinary 1-OHP concentration in exposed group was much higher than that in control group (4.61 vs 0.34 μmol/mol Cr, P＜0.05). Occupational exposure levels and cigarette smoking were of the dominating factors affecting 1-OHP excretions in urine. After controlling potential confounders, decreased excretion of urinary 1-OHP was associated with GSTP1 I105V AG + GG genotype in coke oven workers (single-gene model, P=0.012; multi-gene model, P=0.011 ) and with GSTT1 null type in the analysis including all subjects (P=0.055 in both single-gene and multi-gene models). GSTT1 and GSTP1 were interacted on the urinary concentrations of 1-OHP. Conclusion Urinary 1-OHP concentrations can be modified by GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 gene polymorphisms, indicating that these genes are involved in the metabolism of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.     

多药耐药及相关蛋白基因抗砷作用

目的 研究多药耐药基因(MDRI)、多药耐药相关蛋白基因(MRP1)在长期砷暴露的细胞获得对砷的耐受过程中的作用,为抗砷机制的研究提供基础依据.方法 采用抑制剂维拉帕米(Verapamil)、MK571,在单一水平和联合水平上阻断MDR1和MRP1基因发挥作用,通过四甲基偶氮噻唑蓝(MTT)法检测细胞的生存率及半数致死量(IC50);通过原子荧光法(AFS)分别检测给予Vempamil、MK571的实验组和对照组在不同时间点抗砷细胞内砷的含量.结果 在2,4,8,16,32,64 μmol/L砷浓度下,给予抑制剂的抗砷细胞生存率分别为(73.5±0.02)%,(54.6±0.07)%,(44.2±0.05)%,(20.5±0.09)%,(13.5±0.1)%,(7.6±0.05)%,明显低于同步对照组的生存率(93.5±0.05)%,(71.5±0.02)%,(49.2±0.03)%,(38.8±0.08)%,(37.6±0.06)%,(19.5±0.04)%.Verapamil作用下IC50为8.8 μmol/L,MK571作用下IC50为6.22 μmol/L;同时给于2种抑制剂时,逆转作用更为明显,IC50为5.23μmol/L;MK571作用下,抗砷细胞内砷含量增加明显,至10 h时砷含量达到最大值1.62 ng,明显高出Verapmil组和对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05).结论 MDR1、MRP1基因在抗砷细胞获得耐药性过程中起重要作用.     

工作场所空气中1,1-二氯-1-硝基乙烷的气相色谱测定法

目的 建立工作场所空气中1,1-二氯-1-硝基乙烷的气相色谱测定方法.方法 活性炭管采集工作场所空气中的1,1-二氯-1-硝基乙烷,以二硫化碳解吸后毛细管柱气相色谱法测定.结果 方法的测定范围为4.0～858.2μg/ml;回归方程Y=283X-1076,相关系数r=0.9999;最低检出浓度为0.4 mg/m3(以采集3L空气样品计);不同浓度测定的相对标准偏差(RSD)为1.8%～4.1%(批内精密度试验的RSD分别为2.9%、1.8%和2.0%;批间精密度试验的RSD分别为4.1%、3.5%和3.2%);解吸效率为88.5%～90.6%;穿透容量大于0.7 mg;采样效率100%;样品在室温下至少可保存7 d.结论 方法的各项指标均符合GBZ/T210.4-2008<职业卫生标准制订指南-工作场所空气中化学物质测定方法>要求,可用于工作场所空气中1,1-二氯-1-硝基乙烷的测定.     

Co-circulation of pandemic 2009 H1N1, classical swine H1N1 and avian-like swine H1N1 influenza viruses in pigs in China

The pandemic A/H1N1 influenza viruses emerged in both Mexico and the United States in March 2009, and were transmitted efficiently in the human population. They were transmitted occasionally from humans to other mammals including pigs, dogs and cats. In this study, we report the isolation and genetic analysis of novel viruses in pigs in China. These viruses were related phylogenetically to the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses isolated from humans and pigs, which indicates that the pandemic virus is currently circulating in swine populations, and this hypothesis was further supported by serological surveillance of pig sera collected within the same period. Furthermore, we isolated another two H1N1 viruses belonging to the lineages of classical swine H1N1 virus and avian-like swine H1N1 virus, respectively. Multiple genetic lineages of H1N1 viruses are co-circulating in the swine population, which highlights the importance of intensive surveillance for swine influenza in China.     

Detection of CYP1A1 gene polymorphism using designed RFLP and distributions of CYP1A1 genotypes in Japanese

Isoleucine (Ile)-valine (Val) polymorphism, which is caused by a point mutation from A to G in exon 7, is reported to be associated with an elevated risk of lung cancer among Japanese. Because CYP1A1 catalyzes bioactivation of environmental procarcinogens, such as benzo[a]pyrene, it is very important to study the clinical meaning of Ile-Val polymorphism using an epidemiological study. In an epidemiological study, easy, economical, rapid and reliable identification of the CYP1A1 genotype is necessary. The present study shows that the new method, designed restriction fragment length polymorphism (designed RFLP), can detect Ile-Val polymorphism of CYP1A1 The Ile-Val polymorphism detected using this new method was consistent with that found by the allele-specific PCR amplifications (ASA) method in six cases tested. This new method detected Ile-Va1 polymorphism of CYP1A1 using 240 healthy Japanese who lived in the northern Kyusyu region. The frequency of the genotypes was as follows: Ile/Ile, 159 (66.2%); Ile/Val, 65 (27.1%); Val/Val, 16 (6.7%). The frequency of the Ile gene was 0.798 and that of the Val gene, 0.202. There was no difference in Ile-Val polymorphism based on sex or age. Racial differences influenced the distribution of this polymorphism, but Japanese regional differences did not. Since this new method, designed RFLP, is rapid, reliable and suitable for large-scale screening of polymorphisms, it may be used routinely to detect Ile-Val polymorphism of CYP1A1 Furthermore, it will help to evaluate the relationship between CYP1A1 polymorphism and individual sensitivity to xenobiotics that may affect the incidence of lung cancer.     

CYP1A1和CYP1B1基因多态性与RPL易感性

目的 探讨CYP1A1、CYP1B1基因多态性与复发性流产(RPL)遗传易感性关系,为预防和治疗该病提供新靶点.方法 本研究采用等位基因特异性PCR (As-PCR)和聚合酶链反应-限制性片断长度多态性(PCRRFLP)方法,针对CYP1A1基因MspI酶切位点和CYP1B1 L432V多态位点,检测81例患有原因不明RPL病例组和98名有生育史健康女性对照组之间差异.结果 RPL组和对照组CYP1A1 MspI位点3种基因型m1/m1、m1/m2、m2/m2分布频率差异无统计学意义(x2=0.335,P＞0.05);CYP1B1 L432V多态位点3种基因型C/C、C/G、G/G在病例组和对照组分布差异有统计学意义(x2=7.467,P＜0.05);2组间C、G等位基因分布差异有统计学意义(x2=9.129,P=0.003);G/G、C/G基因型与C/C基因型比较,RPL危险度分别提高2.620、1.954倍;等位基因G使RPL危险性增加2.038倍.结论 CYP1B1 L432V突变基因型增加RPL发病风险,尚不能认为CYP1A1基因MspI位点多态性与RPL易感性有关.     

Protective efficacy of an inactivated Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza vaccine against homologous H1N1 and heterologous H1N1 and H1N2 viruses in mice

Eurasian avian-like H1N1 (EA H1N1) swine influenza viruses are prevalent in pigs in Europe and Asia, but occasionally cause human infection, which raises concern about their pandemic potential. Here, we produced a whole-virus inactivated vaccine with an EA H1N1 strain (A/swine/Guangxi/18/2011, SW/GX/18/11) and evaluated its efficacy against homologous H1N1 and heterologous H1N1 and H1N2 influenza viruses in mice. A strong humoral immune response, which we measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and virus neutralization (VN), was induced in the vaccine-inoculated mice upon challenge. The inactivated SW/GX/18/11 vaccine provided complete protection against challenge with homologous SW/GX/18/11 virus in mice and provided effective protection against challenge with heterologous H1N1 and H1N2 viruses with distinctive genomic combinations. Our findings suggest that this EA H1N1 vaccine can provide protection against both homologous H1N1 and heterologous H1N1 or H1N2 virus infection. As such, it is an excellent vaccine candidate to prevent H1N1 swine influenza.