Continued adverse trends in coronary heart disease mortality among blacks, 1980-91.

An abrupt downturn in mortality rates from coronary heart disease occurred in the United States in the mid-1960s, and for the next decade all four major sex-race groups experienced virtually identical rates of decline. Beginning around the mid-1970s, however, trends for blacks and whites began to diverge, with a deceleration in the annual fall in rates for blacks. The recent release of mortality data extending through 1991, with correction of the denominator estimates in the 1980s using the 1990 census, demonstrate a striking linearity of this trend over the entire decade. In 1989, for the first time since the category of coronary heart disease has been recorded in vital statistics, the age-adjusted death rate for it among black men exceeded that of whites. As a result of the divergent trends among men, an excess of 4,000 deaths of blacks were recorded in 1991 alone. Among women, coronary heart disease mortality was higher among blacks at the beginning of this period, and the average annual percent decline was only two-thirds that of whites. As a result, the absolute mortality gap between blacks and whites steadily increased from 19 to 33 percent (1980 to 1991). This study indicates that the factors that have led to the decline in coronary heart disease have not influenced all demographic groups equally over the last decade.     

Sex-specific trends in validated coronary heart disease rates in southeastern New England, 1980-1991

Although the national decline in coronary heart disease mortality began earlier and was steeper in women relative to men, recent data suggest that the decline in women has slowed. The purpose of this study was to document sex-specific trends in coronary disease morbidity and mortality for the period 1980-1991 in two southeastern New England communities, and to determine whether temporal trends have been similar in men and women aged 35-74 years. Analyses were based on 6,282 validated in-hospital and out-of-hospital coronary disease events ascertained by the retrospective surveillance system of the Pawtucket Heart Health Program. Total (fatal plus non-fatal) coronary disease rates remained stable during this period. The flat trend was the result of an increase in non-fatal hospitalizations and a simultaneous decrease in both in-hospital and out-of-hospital mortality. The decline in fatal coronary disease was steeper for men, for both in- and out-of-hospital mortality, although the sex difference was statistically significant only for out-of-hospital deaths. In-hospital case-fatality for validated coronary disease declined for both men and women. The steeper decline in coronary disease mortality for men suggests the need for more information regarding sex differential trends in prevention, diagnosis, classification, and treatment.     

Racial and geographic variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Magnitudes, geographic and racial variation in trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality within the US require updating for health services and health disparities research. Therefore the aim of this study is to present data on these trends through 2007. METHODS: Data for CHD were analyzed using the US mortality files for 1999-2007 obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-adjusted annual death rates were computed for non-Hispanic African Americans (AA) and European Americans (EA) aged 35-84 years. The direct method was used to standardize rates by age, using the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC). RESULTS: For both AA men and women the magnitude in CHD mortality is higher compared to EA men and women, respectively. Between 1999 and 2007 the rate declined both in AA and in EA of both sexes in every geographic division; however, relative declines varied. For example, among men, relative average annual declines ranged from 3.2% to 4.7% in AA and from 4.4% to 5.5% in EA among geographic divisions. In women, rates declined more in later years of the decade and in women over 54 years. In 2007, age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 for CHD ranged from 93 in EA women in New England to 345 in AA men in the East North Central division. In EA, areas near the Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers had above average rates. Disparities in trends by urbanization level were also found. For AA in the East North Central division, the APC was similar in large central metro (-4.2), large fringe metro (-4.3), medium metro urbanization strata (-4.4), and small metro (-3.9). The somewhat higher APC in the micropolitan/non-metro (-5.3), and especially the non-core/non-metro (-6.5). For EA in the East South Central division, the APC was higher in large central metro (-5.3), large fringe metro (-4.3) and medium metro urbanization strata (-5.1) than in small metro (-3.8), micropolitan/non-metro (-4.0), and non-core/non-metro (-3.3) urbanization strata. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1999 and 2007, the level and rate of decline in CHD mortality displayed persistent disparities. Declines were greater in EA than AA racial groups. Rates were greater in the Ohio and Mississippi River than other geographic regions.     

Declining mortality from ischemic heart disease and changes in coronary risk factors in Japan, 1956-1980

Mortality from ischemic heart disease has declined in Japan since 1970. This paper addresses the declining mortality from ischemic heart disease and the possible contributing factors for 1956-1980. Mortality figures were obtained from Vital Statistics reports by the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Japan. National trends in blood pressure levels, prevalence of hypertension, Keys' lipid factor phi instead of the serum cholesterol level, and body mass index were obtained from the National Nutrition Survey which is carried out annually from random samples in Japan. The smoking rate which was obtained from other national surveys was also reviewed for this purpose. The age-adjusted (30-69 years) mortality from ischemic heart disease declined by 24% and 37% for men and women, respectively, between 1968 and 1978. It seemed that the decline in blood pressure levels and in the prevalence of hypertension and the increasing treatment rate for cardiovascular disease might contribute to the declining mortality from ischemic heart disease. The decline in cigarette smoking may, in part, also play a role. On the other hand, the increase in intake of lipids which resulted in Keys' lipid factor phi was compatible with the increase in mortality from ischemic heart disease during 1956-1970. The experience in Japan shows that the treatment of hypertension or the lowering of blood pressure and the recommendation to stop smoking help to prevent ischemic heart disease.     

Avoidable mortality in Europe (1980-1997): a comparison of trends

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To analyse international variations of trends in "avoidable" mortality (1980-1997). DESIGN: A multilevel model was used to study trends in avoidable and "non-avoidable" mortality and trends by cause of death. SETTING: Fifteen countries of the European Union, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. PARTICIPANTS: 19 avoidable causes of death among men and women aged 0-64 years. Mortality and population data were derived from the WHO mortality database; and perinatal mortality rates, from the Health for All statistical database. Main results: Avoidable mortality declined (1980-1997) in all the countries except Hungary. The difference between the trends in avoidable and non-avoidable mortality was small (-2.4% compared with -1.5%) and diminished over time. The largest trend variations between countries are attributable to causes mainly or partly amenable to prevention. For five of the 19 causes of death the international variations diminished over time. Various countries show trends that deviate significantly (p<0.003) from the mean trend. CONCLUSIONS: One explanation for the small and diminishing difference between avoidable and non-avoidable mortality is that some large avoidable causes show unfavourable trends. Another possible explanation is that the category of non-avoidable mortality is "polluted" by causes that have become avoidable with time. It is therefore suggested that Rutstein's lists of avoidable outcomes (1976) be updated to enable the appropriate monitoring of healthcare effectiveness. In countries that show unfavourable developments for specific avoidable causes, further research must unravel the causes of these trends.     

Ten-year trends in all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease mortality in socio-economically diverse neighbourhoods

OBJECTIVE: Although all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is declining in Sweden, as in most other countries in the industrialised world, we have limited information about the distribution and trends of mortality in deprived and affluent neighbourhoods. DESIGN: This study analyses the extent to which the decline in all-cause mortality and CHD mortality (over the age range 25-74 y) differs between affluent and deprived neighbourhoods during the decade 1984-1993. Incidence density ratios (IDR), estimated by Poisson regression, were calculated for small areas, grouped into population deciles, by both the care need index (CNI) and the Townsend deprivation score. On average, there were about 14 500 residents and 560 deaths in each decile over the period. SETTING: A large Swedish city. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality and mortality from CHD. RESULTS: The most deprived neighbourhoods had the highest IDR for all-cause mortality and CHD mortality. Over the period from 1984-1988 to 1989-1993 there was an overall decrease in all-cause mortality and CHD mortality, which was significantly higher in the most affluent areas. The mortality ratios for the most deprived neighbourhoods were almost three times higher than those of the most affluent areas. CONCLUSIONS: People liviing in more affluent neighbourhoods have had the benefit of most of the last decade's decline in CHD mortality.     

Malnutrition mortality in the elderly,southeast Brazil, 1980-1997

OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of nutritional disturbances as cause of death in elderly. METHODS: Female and male subjects aged 60 years and more were selected from municipalities of the southeastern region between 1980 and 1997. Data was collected from death certificates provided by the Death Data System (1980-1998) and the population size was estimated using data provided by the Center for Regional Development and Planning (Cedeplar). Death categorization was performed using the ICD-9 (260 to 263.9) for the period 1980 to 1995 and ICD-10 (E40 to E46) for recent years. RESULTS: In Brazil, between 1980 and 1997, there were 36,955 deaths associated to malnutrition among elderly. The southeast region concentrates the largest number of deaths, 23,968 (64.9%). In the state of S?o Paulo, there were 11,067 deaths caused by malnutrition in elderly and in the state of Rio de Janeiro, 7,763. These two regions are responsible for the highest values observed for the region. There are higher death proportions and mortality rates among subjects aged 70 years and more than in subjects of any sex of the age group 60 to 69 years. CONCLUSION: The preliminary results of the study raise some issues as follows: the role of malnutrition as an associated cause of death; the trend of increased number of deaths for malnutrition among elderly people; distinctive death characteristics among states in the same geographic region. Statistical analysis such as time series analysis might explain better these issues. There is a need to further study the role of malnutrition among elderly aged 60 years and more to establish adequate intervention programs.     

Milk, coronary heart disease and mortality

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To study the association between reported milk consumption and cardiovascular and all cause mortality. DESIGN: A prospective study of 5765 men aged 35-64 at the time of examination. SETTING: Workplaces in the west of Scotland between 1970 and 1973. PARTICIPANTS: Men who completed a health and lifestyle questionnaire, which asked about daily milk consumption, and who attended for a medical examination. MAIN RESULTS: 150 (2.6%) men reported drinking more than one and a third pints a day, Some 2977 (51.6%) reported drinking between a third and one and a third pints a day and 2638 (45.8%) reported drinking less than a third of a pint a day. There were a total of 2350 deaths over the 25 year follow up period, of which 892 deaths were attributed to coronary heart disease. The relative risk, adjusted for socioeconomic position, health behaviours and health status for deaths from all causes for men who drank one third to one and a third pints a day versus those who drank less than a third of a pint was 0.90 (95% CI 0.83, 0.97). The adjusted relative risk for deaths attributed to coronary heart disease for men who drank one third to one and a third pints a day versus those who drank less than one third of a pint was 0.92 (95% CI 0.81, 1.06). CONCLUSIONS: No evidence was found that men who consumed milk each day, at a time when most milk consumed was full fat milk, were at increased risk of death from all causes or death from coronary heart disease.     

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Finland between 1982 and 1997

In Finland since the 1980s, coronary heart disease mortality has declined more than might be predicted by risk factor reductions alone. The aim of this study was to assess how much of the decline could be attributed to improved treatments and risk factor reductions. The authors used the cell-based IMPACT mortality model to synthesize effectiveness of treatments and risk factor reductions with data on treatments administered to patients and trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the population. Cardiovascular risk factors were measured in random samples of patients in 1982 (n=8,501) and 1997 (n=4,500). Mortality and treatment data were obtained from the National Causes of Death Register, Hospital Discharge Register, social insurance data, and medical records. Estimated and observed changes in coronary heart disease mortality were used as main outcome measures. Between 1982 and 1997, coronary heart disease mortality rates declined by 63%, with 373 fewer deaths in 1997 than expected from baseline mortality rates in 1982. Improved treatments explained approximately 23% of the mortality reduction, and risk factors explained some 53-72% of the reduction. These findings highlight the value of a comprehensive strategy that promotes primary prevention programs and actively supports secondary prevention. It also emphasizes the importance of maximizing population coverage of effective treatments.     

Trends in coronary heart disease in Queensland, 1971-1980. An interpretation

Routine data on mortality and hospital activity were used to estimate changes in coronary heart disease mortality, case fatality, and hospitalizations in the Australian state of Queensland over the decade 1971-1980. Acute myocardial infarction (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 410) and other ischemic heart disease (ICD 411-414) were considered separately. For acute myocardial infarction, age-adjusted total mortality declined by about one fourth in both men and women; in-hospital mortality decreased somewhat more and deaths out of hospital correspondingly less. The age-adjusted case fatality ratio fell by the same amount (29%), in both sexes. Similar trends occurred at all ages. Admission rates decreased 11% in men and 18% in women. Similar patterns were evident for other ischemic heart disease except for admissions, which rose 23% among men and remained at the same level in women. These findings suggest that both declining incidence, particularly in the form of fewer deaths out of hospital, and improvements in care may have contributed to the general decline in coronary heart disease mortality in this community. Without direct measures of incidence or changing disease severity, the relative contributions of each factor cannot be examined.     

Global trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality 1973-1997

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, breast cancer is the most common cancer and is the leading cause of cancer death among women. METHODS: To describe global trends, we compared age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates over three decades (from 1973-77 to 1993-97) and across several continents. RESULTS: Both breast cancer incidence and mortality rates varied 4-fold by geographic location between countries with the highest and lowest rates. Recent (1993-1997) incidence rates ranged from 27/100,000 in Asian countries to 97/100,000 among US white women. Overall, North American and northern European countries had the highest incidence rates of breast cancer; intermediate levels were reported in Western Europe, Oceania, Scandinavia, and Israel; and Eastern Europe, South and Latin America, and Asia had the lowest levels. Breast cancer incidence rose 30-40% from the 1970s to the 1990s in most countries, with the most marked increases among women aged > or =50 years. Mortality from breast cancer paralleled incidence: it was highest in the countries with the highest incidence rates (between 17/100,000 and 27/100,000), lowest in Latin America and Asia (7-14/100,000), and rose most rapidly in countries with the lowest rates. CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates remain highest in developed countries compared with developing countries, as a result of differential use of screening mammograms and disparities in lifestyle and hereditary factors. Future studies assessing the combined contributions of both environmental and hereditary factors may provide explanations for worldwide differences in incidence and mortality rates.     

Smoking cessation and mortality trends among 118,000 Californians, 1960-1997.

We assessed the impact of smoking cessation on subsequent death rates among a cohort of 51,343 men and 66,751 women in California enrolled in late 1959 in the original American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study (CPS I) and followed for 38 years. We compared the age-adjusted death rate, expressed as deaths per 1,000 person-years, among all subjects who smoked cigarettes in 1959 but who had largely quit as of 1997 with the death rate among never smokers over a 38-year period. The all causes death rate for males decreased from 20.67 during 1960-1969 to 18.68 during 1960-1997 for smokers and decreased from 10.51 to 9.46 for never smokers. The lung cancer death rate for males increased from 1.558 to 1.728 for smokers and increased from 0.127 to 0.133 for never smokers. The all causes death rate for females increased from 9.54 to 10.14 for smokers and decreased from 6.95 to 6.44 for never smokers. The lung cancer death rate for females increased greatly from 0.208 to 0.806 for smokers and increased from 0.094 to 0.116 for never smokers. These results indicate there has been no important decline in either the absolute or relative death rates from all causes and lung cancer for cigarette smokers as a whole compared with never smokers in this large cohort, in spite of a substantial degree of smoking cessation. While cessation clearly reduces the mortality risk among long-term former smokers, the population impact of cessation appears to be less than currently believed.     

Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns.     

Cancer mortality trends in Rio Branco, Acre State, Brazil, 1980-2006

Time trends in cancer incidence and mortality in the Western Amazon remain unknown. This study explored age-standardized cancer mortality rates according to anatomical site in Rio Branco, Acre State, Brazil, by constructing linear regression time trend models. Cancer mortality showed an increasing but inconstant trend in men and stability in women. At the end of the time series, the highest cancer rates among women were for the cervix, lung, liver and intrahepatic biliary tract, stomach, and breast. Among men, the highest rates were for cancer of the lung, prostate, liver and intra-hepatic biliary tract, stomach, and esophagus. The study showed an increasing mortality time trend for cancer of the prostate, breast, and lung and declining mortality rates for cervical cancer in women, lung cancer in men, and stomach cancer in both sexes. The high mortality rate from liver cancer merits attention, considering the high hepatitis B and C infection rates in the State of Acre.