Dynamics of Neutralizing Antibody Responses Following Natural SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Correlation with Commercial Serologic Tests. A Reappraisal and Indirect Comparison with Vaccinated Subjects

Neutralising antibodies (NAbs) represent the real source of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections by preventing the virus from entering target cells. The gold standard in the detection of these antibodies is the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). As these experiments must be done in a very secure environment, other techniques based on pseudoviruses: pseudovirus neutralization test (pVNT) or surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) have been developed. Binding assays, on the other hand, measure total antibodies or IgG, IgM, and IgA directed against one epitope of the SARS-CoV-2, independently of their neutralizing capacity. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of six commercial binding assays to the pVNT and sVNT. In this study, we used blood samples from a cohort of 62 RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 patients. Based on the results of the neutralizing assays, adapted cut-offs for the binding assays were calculated. The use of these adapted cut-offs does not permit to improve the accuracy of the serological assays and we did not find an adapted cut-off able to improve the capacity of these tests to detect NAbs. For a part of the population, a longitudinal follow-up with at least two samples for the same patient was performed. From day 14 to day 291, more than 75% of the samples were positive for NAbs (n = 87/110, 79.1%). Interestingly, 6 months post symptoms onset, the majority of the samples (N = 44/52, 84.6%) were still positive for NAbs. This is in sharp contrast with the results we obtained 6 months post-vaccination in our cohort of healthcare workers who have received the two-dose regimens of BNT162b2. In this cohort of vaccinated subjects, 43% (n = 25/58) of the participants no longer exhibit NAbs activity 180 days after the administration of the first dose of BNT162b2.     

Hyperimmunized Chickens Produce Neutralizing Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is responsible for the global COVID-19 pandemic. Effective interventions are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 and likely require multiple strategies. Egg-extracted antibody therapies are a low-cost and scalable strategy to protect at-risk individuals from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Commercial laying hens were hyperimmunized against the SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein using three different S1 recombinant proteins and three different doses. Sera and egg yolk were collected at three and six weeks after the second immunization for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and plaque-reduction neutralization assay to determine antigen-specific antibody titers and neutralizing antibody titers, respectively. In this study we demonstrate that hens hyperimmunized against the SARS-CoV-2 recombinant S1 and receptor binding domain (RBD) proteins produced neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. We further demonstrate that antibody production was dependent on the dose and type of antigen administered. Our data suggests that antibodies purified from the egg yolk of hyperimmunized hens can be used as immunoprophylaxis in humans at risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2.     

Robust Neutralizing Antibody Levels Detected after Either SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination or One Year after Infection

Humoral immunity after infection or after vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been attributed a key part in mitigating the further transmission of the virus. In this study, we used a commercial anti-Spike immunoglobulin G (S-IgG) assay and developed a cell culture-based neutralization assay to understand the longitudinal course of neutralizing antibodies in both SARS-CoV2 infected or vaccinated individuals. We show that even more than one year after infection, about 78% of observed study participants remained seropositive concerning S-IgG antibodies. In addition, the serum of the individuals had stable neutralization capacity in a neutralization assay against a SARS-CoV-2 patient isolate from March 2020. We also examined volunteers after either homologous BNT162b2 prime-boost vaccination or heterologous AZD1222 prime/mRNA-based booster vaccination. Both the heterologous and the homologous vaccination regimens induced higher levels of neutralizing antibodies in healthy subjects when compared to subjects after a mild infection, showing the high effectiveness of available vaccines. In addition, we could demonstrate the reliability of S-IgG levels in predicting neutralization capacity, with 94.8% of seropositive samples showing a neutralization titer of ≥10, making it a viable yet cheap and easy-to-determine surrogate parameter for neutralization capacity.     

Chemiluminescence Immunoassay Based Serological Immunoassays for Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibodies in COVID-19 Convalescent Patients and Vaccinated Population

The development of rapid serological detection methods re urgently needed for determination of neutralizing antibodies in sera. In this study, four rapid methods (ACE2-RBD inhibition assay, S1-IgG detection, RBD-IgG detection, and N-IgG detection) were established and evaluated based on chemiluminescence technology. For the first time, a broadly neutralizing antibody with high affinity was used as a standard for the quantitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 specific neutralizing antibodies in human sera. Sera from COVID-19 convalescent patients (N = 119), vaccinated donors (N = 86), and healthy donors (N = 299) confirmed by microneutralization test (MNT) were used to evaluate the above methods. The result showed that the ACE2-RBD inhibition assay calculated with either ACE2-RBD binding inhibition percentage rate or ACE2-RBD inhibiting antibody concentration were strongly correlated with MNT (r ≥ 0.78, p < 0.0001) and also highly consistent with MNT (Kappa Value ≥ 0.94, p < 0.01). There was also a strong correlation between the two evaluation indices (r ≥ 0.99, p < 0.0001). Meanwhile, S1-IgG and RBD-IgG quantitative detection were also significantly correlated with MNT (r ≥ 0.73, p < 0.0001), and both methods were highly correlated with each other (r ≥ 0.95, p < 0.0001). However, the concentration of N-IgG antibodies showed a lower correlation with the MNT results (r < 0.49, p < 0.0001). The diagnostic assays presented here could be used for the evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine immunization effect and serological diagnosis of COVID-19 patients, and could also have guiding significance for establishing other rapid serological methods to surrogate neutralization tests for SARS-CoV-2.     

Proper Selection of In Vitro Cell Model Affects the Characterization of the Neutralizing Antibody Response against SARS-CoV-2

(1) Background: Our aim is the evaluation of the neutralizing activity of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine-induced antibodies in different in vitro cellular models, as this still represents one of the surrogates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 viral variants. (2) Methods: The entry mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 in three cell lines (Vero E6, Vero E6/TMPRSS2 and Calu-3) were evaluated with both pseudoviruses and whole virus particles. The neutralizing capability of sera collected from vaccinated subjects was characterized through cytopathic effects and Real-Time RT PCR. (3) Results: In contrast to Vero E6 and Vero E6/TMPRSS2, Calu-3 allowed the evaluation of both viral entry mechanisms, resembling what occurs during natural infection. The choice of an appropriate cellular model can decisively influence the determination of the neutralizing activity of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants. Indeed, the lack of correlation between neutralizing data in Calu-3 and Vero E6 demonstrated that testing the antibody inhibitory activity by using a single cell model possibly results in an inaccurate characterization. (4) Conclusions: Cellular systems allowing only one of the two viral entry pathways may not fully reflect the neutralizing activity of vaccine-induced antibodies moving increasingly further away from possible correlates of protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection.     

Persistence of Neutralizing Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in First Wave Infected Individuals at Ten Months Post-Infection: The UnIRSA Cohort Study

Longitudinal mapping of antibody-based SARS-CoV-2 immunity is critical for public health control of the pandemic and vaccine development. We performed a longitudinal analysis of the antibody-based immune response in a cohort of 100 COVID-19 individuals who were infected during the first wave of infection in northern Italy. The SARS-CoV-2 humoral response was tested using the COVID-SeroIndex, Kantaro Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 IgG Antibody RUO Kit (R&D Systems, Bio-Techne, Minneapolis, USA) and pseudotype-based neutralizing antibody assay. Using sequential serum samples collected from 100 COVID-19 recovered individuals from northern Italy—mostly with mild disease—at 2 and 10 months after their first positive PCR test, we show that 93% of them seroconverted at 2 months, with a geometric mean (GeoMean) half-maximal neutralization titer (NT50) of 387.9. Among the 35 unvaccinated subjects retested at 10 months, 7 resulted seronegative, with an 80% drop in seropositivity, while 28 showed decreased anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) and anti-spike (S) IgG titers, with a GeoMean NT50 neutralization titer dropping to 163.5. As an NT50 > 100 is known to confer protection from SARS-CoV-2 re-infection, our data show that the neutralizing activity elicited by the natural infection has lasted for at least 10 months in a large fraction of subjects.     

Structural Analysis of Neutralizing Epitopes of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike to Guide Therapy and Vaccine Design Strategies

Coronavirus research has gained tremendous attention because of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (nCoV or SARS-CoV-2). In this review, we highlight recent studies that provide atomic-resolution structural details important for the development of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that can be used therapeutically and prophylactically and for vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. Structural studies with SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing mAbs have revealed a diverse set of binding modes on the spike’s receptor-binding domain and N-terminal domain and highlight alternative targets on the spike. We consider this structural work together with mAb effects in vivo to suggest correlations between structure and clinical applications. We also place mAbs against severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 spike to suggest features that may be desirable to design mAbs or vaccines capable of conferring broad protection.     

SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection in a Healthcare Worker Despite the Presence of Detectable Neutralizing Antibodies

So far, only a few reports about reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 have been published, and they often lack detailed immunological and virological data. We report about a SARS-CoV-2 reinfection with a genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 variant in an immunocompetent female healthcare worker that has led to a mild disease course. No obvious viral escape mutations were observed in the second virus variant. The infectious virus was shed from the patient during the second infection episode despite the presence of neutralizing antibodies in her blood. Our data indicate that a moderate immune response after the first infection, but not a viral escape, did allow for reinfection and live virus shedding.     

Characterization of a Broadly Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody against SARS-CoV-2 Variants

The constant mutation of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of new variants, which call for urgent effective therapeutic interventions. The trimeric spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2 is highly immunogenic with the receptor-binding domain (RBD) that binds first to the cellular receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and is therefore the target of many neutralizing antibodies. In this study, we characterized a broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody (mAb) 9G8, which shows potent neutralization against the authentic SARS-CoV-2 wild-type (WT), Alpha (B.1.1.7), and Delta (1.617.2) viruses. Furthermore, mAb 9G8 also displayed a prominent neutralizing efficacy in the SARS-CoV-2 surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) against the Epsilon (B.1.429/7), Kappa (B.1.617.1), Gamma (P.1), Beta (B.1.351), and Delta Plus (1.617.2.1) RBD variants in addition to the variants mentioned above. Based on our in vitro escape mutant studies, we proved that the mutations V483F and Y489H within the RBD were involved in ACE2 binding and caused the neutralizing evasion of the virus from mAb 9G8. The development of such a cross-reactive neutralizing antibody against majority of the SARS-CoV-2 variants provides an important insight into pursuing future therapeutic agents for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.     

Neutralizing Antibodies in COVID-19 Patients and Vaccine Recipients after Two Doses of BNT162b2

The evaluation of the neutralizing capacity of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is important because they represent real protective immunity. In this study we aimed to measure and compare the neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) in COVID-19 patients and in vaccinated individuals. One-hundred and fifty long-term samples from 75 COVID-19 patients were analyzed with a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) and compared to six different SARS-CoV-2 serology assays. The agreement between the sVNT and pseudovirus VNT (pVNT) results was found to be excellent (i.e., 97.2%). The NAb response was also assessed in 90 individuals who had received the complete dose regimen of BNT162b2. In COVID-19 patients, a stronger response was observed in moderate–severe versus mild patients (p-value = 0.0006). A slow decay in NAbs was noted in samples for up to 300 days after diagnosis, especially in moderate–severe patients (r = −0.35, p-value = 0.03). In the vaccinated population, 83.3% of COVID-19-naive individuals had positive NAbs 14 days after the first dose and all were positive 7 days after the second dose, i.e., at day 28. In previously infected individuals, all were already positive for NAbs at day 14. At each time point, a stronger response was observed for previously infected individuals (p-value < 0.05). The NAb response remained stable for up to 56 days in all participants. Vaccinated participants had significantly higher NAb titers compared to COVID patients. In previously infected vaccine recipients, one dose might be sufficient to generate sufficient neutralizing antibodies.     

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid,Spike, and Neutralizing Antibodies in Vaccinated Japanese

Serological detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleocapsid (N), spike (S), and neutralizing antibodies (Abs) is commonly undertaken to evaluate the efficacy of vaccination. However, the relative efficiency of different SARS-CoV-2 Ab detection systems has not been extensively investigated. Here, we evaluated serological test systems in vaccinated Japanese. SARS-CoV-2 N, S, and neutralizing Abs in sera of 375 healthy subjects a mean 253 days after vaccination were assessed. The sensitivity of Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 S (Roche S) and Anti-SARS-CoV-2 S IgG (Fujirebio S) was 100% and 98.9%, respectively, with a specificity of 100% for both. The sensitivity of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing Ab (MBL Neu) was 2.7%, and the specificity was 100%. Fujirebio S correlated with Roche S (rho = 0.9182, p = 3.97 × 10⁻¹⁵²). Fujirebio S (rho = 0.1295, p = 0.0121) and Roche S (rho = 0.1232, p = 0.0170) correlated weakly with MBL Neu. However, Roche S did correlate with MBL Neu in patients with COVID-19 (rho = 0.8299, p = 1.01 × 10⁻¹²) and in healthy subjects more recently after vaccination (mean of 90 days, rho = 0.5306, p = 0.0003). Thus, the Fujirebio S and Roche S results were very similar, but neither correlated with neutralizing antibody titers by MBL Neu at a later time after vaccination.     

Third Early “Booster” Dose Strategy in France of bnt162b2 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients Enhances Neutralizing Antibody Responses

Immunocompromised individuals generally fail to mount efficacious immune humoral responses following vaccination. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern has raised the question as to whether levels of anti-spike protein antibodies achieved after two or three doses of the vaccine efficiently protect against breakthrough infection in the context of immune suppression. We used a fluorescence-based neutralization assay to test the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 variants (ancestral variant, Beta, Delta, and Omicron BA.1) to the neutralizing response induced by vaccination in highly immunosuppressed allogeneic HSCT recipients, tested after two and three doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine. We show that neutralizing antibody responses to the Beta and Delta variants in most immunocompromised HSCT recipients increased after three vaccine doses up to values similar to those observed in twice-vaccinated healthy adults and were significantly lower against Omicron BA.1. Overall, neutralization titers correlated with the amount of anti-S-RBD antibodies measured by means of enzyme immunoassay, indicating that commercially available assays can be used to quantify the anti-S-RBD antibody response as a reliable surrogate marker of humoral immune protection in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised individuals. Our findings support the recommendation of additional early vaccine doses as a booster of humoral neutralizing activity against emerging variants, in HSCT immunocompromised patients. In the context of Omicron circulation, it further emphasizes the need for reinforcement of preventive measures including the administration of monoclonal antibodies in this high-risk population.     

Intranasal Administration of a Monoclonal Neutralizing Antibody Protects Mice against SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Despite the recent availability of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2), there is an urgent need for specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 drugs. Monoclonal neutralizing antibodies are an important drug class in the global fight against the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic due to their ability to convey immediate protection and their potential to be used as both prophylactic and therapeutic drugs. Clinically used neutralizing antibodies against respiratory viruses are currently injected intravenously, which can lead to suboptimal pulmonary bioavailability and thus to a lower effectiveness. Here we describe DZIF-10c, a fully human monoclonal neutralizing antibody that binds the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. DZIF-10c displays an exceptionally high neutralizing potency against SARS-CoV-2, retains full activity against the variant of concern (VOC) B.1.1.7 and still neutralizes the VOC B.1.351, although with reduced potency. Importantly, not only systemic but also intranasal application of DZIF-10c abolished the presence of infectious particles in the lungs of SARS-CoV-2 infected mice and mitigated lung pathology when administered prophylactically. Along with a favorable pharmacokinetic profile, these results highlight DZIF-10c as a novel human SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody with high in vitro and in vivo antiviral potency. The successful intranasal application of DZIF-10c paves the way for clinical trials investigating topical delivery of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.     

Elicitation of Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies against B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and B.1.617.1 SARS-CoV-2 Variants by Three Prototype Strain-Derived Recombinant Protein Vaccines

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Most of the currently approved SARS-CoV-2 vaccines use the prototype strain-derived spike (S) protein or its receptor-binding domain (RBD) as the vaccine antigen. The emergence of several novel SARS-CoV-2 variants has raised concerns about potential immune escape. In this study, we performed an immunogenicity comparison of prototype strain-derived RBD, S1, and S ectodomain trimer (S-trimer) antigens and evaluated their induction of neutralizing antibodies against three circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and B.1.617.1. We found that, at the same antigen dose, the RBD and S-trimer vaccines were more potent than the S1 vaccine in eliciting long-lasting, high-titer broadly neutralizing antibodies in mice. The RBD immune sera remained highly effective against the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and B.1.617.1 variants despite the corresponding neutralizing titers decreasing by 1.2-, 2.8-, and 3.5-fold relative to that against the wild-type strain. Significantly, the S-trimer immune sera exhibited comparable neutralization potency (less than twofold variation in neutralizing GMTs) towards the prototype strain and all three variants tested. These findings provide valuable information for further development of recombinant protein-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and support the continued use of currently approved SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the regions/countries where variant viruses circulate.     

Kinetics of Nucleocapsid,Spike and Neutralizing Antibodies,and Viral Load in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Treated with Convalescent Plasma

COVID-19 is an ongoing pandemic with high morbidity and mortality. Despite meticulous research, only dexamethasone has shown consistent mortality reduction. Convalescent plasma (CP) infusion might also develop into a safe and effective treatment modality on the basis of recent studies and meta-analyses; however, little is known regarding the kinetics of antibodies in CP recipients. To evaluate the kinetics, we followed 31 CP recipients longitudinally enrolled at a median of 3 days post symptom onset for changes in binding and neutralizing antibody titers and viral loads. Antibodies against the complete trimeric Spike protein and the receptor-binding domain (Spike-RBD), as well as against the complete Nucleocapsid protein and the RNA binding domain (N-RBD) were determined at baseline and weekly following CP infusion. Neutralizing antibody (pseudotype NAb) titers were determined at the same time points. Viral loads were determined semi-quantitatively by SARS-CoV-2 PCR. Patients with low humoral responses at entry showed a robust increase of antibodies to all SARS-CoV-2 proteins and Nab, reaching peak levels within 2 weeks. The rapid increase in binding and neutralizing antibodies was paralleled by a concomitant clearance of the virus within the same timeframe. Patients with high humoral responses at entry demonstrated low or no further increases; however, virus clearance followed the same trajectory as in patients with low antibody response at baseline. Together, the sequential immunological and virological analysis of this well-defined cohort of patients early in infection shows the presence of high levels of binding and neutralizing antibodies and potent clearance of the virus.     

Characterizing Kinetics and Avidity of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses in COVID-19 Greek Patients

In-depth understanding of the immune response provoked by SARS-CoV-2 infection is necessary, as there is a great risk of reinfection and a difficulty in achieving herd immunity due to a decline in both antibody concentration and avidity. Avidity testing, however, could overcome variability in the immune response associated with sex or clinical symptoms, and thus differentiate between recent and past infections. In this context, here, we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 antibody kinetics and avidity in Greek hospitalized (26%) and non-hospitalized (74%) COVID-19 patients (N = 71) in the course of up to 15 months after their infection to improve the accuracy of the serological diagnosis in dating the onset of the infection. The results showed that IgG-S1 levels decline significantly at four months (p = 0.0239) in both groups of patients and are higher in hospitalized ones (up to 2.1-fold, p < 0.001). Additionally, hospitalized patients’ titers drop greatly and are equalized to non-hospitalized ones only at a time-point of twelve to fifteen months. Antibody levels of women in total remain more stable months after infection, compared to men. Furthermore, we examined the differential maturation of IgG avidity after SARS-CoV-2 infection, showing an incomplete maturation of avidity that results in a plateau at four months after infection. We also defined 38.2% avidity (sensitivity: 58.9%, specificity: 90.91%) as an appropriate “cut-off” that could be used to determine the stage of infection before avidity reaches a plateau.     

Overview of Neutralization Assays and International Standard for Detecting SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody

We aimed to review the existing literature on the different types of neutralization assays and international standards for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We comprehensively summarized the serological assays for detecting neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and demonstrated the importance of an international standard for calibrating the measurement of neutralizing antibodies. Following the coronavirus disease outbreak in December 2019, there was an urgent demand to detect neutralizing antibodies in patients or vaccinated people to monitor disease outcomes and determine vaccine efficacy. Therefore, many approaches were developed to detect neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, such as microneutralization assay, SARS-CoV-2 pseudotype virus assay, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and rapid lateral flow assay. Given the many types of serological assays for quantifying the neutralizing antibody titer, the comparison of different assay results is a challenge. In 2020, the World Health Organization proposed the first international standard as a common unit to define neutralizing antibody titer and antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2. These standards are useful for comparing the results of different assays and laboratories.     

Comparison of Six Serological Immunoassays for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody Levels in the Vaccinated Population

Neutralizing antibody (NAb) detection is critical for evaluating herd immunity and monitoring the efficacy of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study, quantitative SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels after vaccination were measured by chemiluminescent immunoassays, enzyme immunoassays, and surrogate virus neutralization tests (sVNTs), as well as plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNT). Sequential blood samples were collected before and 1 and 3 months after vaccination in 30 healthy participants (two doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca [AZ] or Pfizer-BioNTech [BNT]). After vaccination, all sera tested positive for PRNT, with NAb titers ranging from 1:10 to 1:723. Median NAb titers were higher in the BNT vaccine group than in the AZ vaccine group at both one and three months post-vaccination. Excellent overall concordance rates were observed between serological assays and PRNT. In a quantitative correlation analysis, the results of sVNTs showed a strong correlation with those of PRNT. Results of the four binding antibody assays showed a significant correlation with those of PRNT. The serologic assays evaluated in this study could be used as sVNTs to evaluate the efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.     

The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2

The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.

The unprecedented development of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 has represented a triumph in the global effort to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccines have been shown to provide short-term protection from major adverse health outcomes of hospitalization and death (1–4). However, protection against breakthrough infection wanes (5), and breakthroughs have been extensively documented (6, 7). In response, the Food and Drug Administration advisory committee has recommended a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines at least 5 mo after completion of the primary series to people ≥12 and ≥18 y of age, respectively (8). A booster dose of the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen vaccine has been authorized on a faster timescale—as early as 2 mo after the single dose to individuals 18 y of age and older (8). Nevertheless, the optimal timing of boosting remains challenging to assess. Consequently, rigorous prediction of the durability of immunity conferred by vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 virus is essential to personal and public health decision-making, having major implications regarding policy decisions about COVID-19 vaccination around the world (9, 10).Short-term longitudinal studies of SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated individuals (11–13) can provide information crucial to our understanding of the durability of vaccine-mediated immunity. Peak antibody responses following vaccination versus natural responses have also been quantified (14), facilitating analytical comparison of initial immune responses. For endemic viruses, longitudinal data on reinfection can provide reinfection probabilities associated with antibody level. However, longitudinal data on SARS-CoV-2 reinfection are not available during the short term associated with pandemic spread. Nevertheless, longitudinal reinfection data for a diversity of coronaviruses have been collected (15–20). SARS-CoV-2 reinfection probabilities have been obtained from them by phylogenetic analysis, using continuous ancestral and descendent state estimation (21). These estimates, produced before reinfection was commonplace, proved accurate (predicting an 18% probability of reinfection at ∼270 d [ref. 21] that was validated by a subsequent empirical finding of 18% reinfection by 275 to 300 d after primary infection [ref. 22] and, likewise, predicting a 34% probability of reinfection at ∼450 d after primary infection [ref. 21] that was validated by a subsequent empirical finding of 34% breakthrough infection 420 to 480 d after primary vaccination [ref. 23]). Similar analyses pairing antibody response and rates of waning for each vaccine with infection probabilities can enable quantification of the durability of vaccine-mediated immunity against breakthrough infections. The aim of this study is to leverage data on antibody response to each vaccine and corresponding probabilities of infection to estimate the durability of vaccine-mediated immunity against breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection for four well-studied vaccines: mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, and Ad26.COV2.S.