Instability of the pelvic ring and injury severity can be predictors of death in patients with pelvic ring fractures: a retrospective study

Background  The correlation between fracture type and mortality in patients with pelvic fracture has been previously investigated. The purpose of this study was to determine whether instability of the pelvic ring as assessed by Tile’s classification is a predictor of death in patients with pelvic fractures. Materials and methods  The clinical course of consecutive patients with pelvic fractures was retrospectively reviewed. Eighty-seven patients with pelvic ring fractures were included in the study. As potential predictive factors, fracture type according to Tile’s classification, and generally used traumatic parameters (injury severity score, revised trauma score, and probability of survival) were analyzed. Results  The mortality was significantly higher in patients with unstable fracture patterns (P < 0.05). In non-survivors, index values of traumatic parameters were more severe than those in survivors (P < 0.05). Conclusion  The present study suggests that patients with unstable pelvic fractures have an increased risk of death associated with exacerbated injury severity.     

APACHE-II scoring system in perforative peritonitis

BACKGROUND: Prospective assessment of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II) scoring system of stratification of disease severity has been shown to provide objective discrimination between low-risk and high-risk groups of patients with intra-abdominal sepsis. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the performance of APACHE-II score in prediction of mortality risk in patients with peritonitis due to hollow viscus perforation. STUDY DESIGN: Fifty patients admitted to a teaching hospital with peritonitis due to hollow viscus perforation were prospectively studied over a 2-year period. APACHE-II points were assigned to all patients in order to calculate their individual risk of mortality before undergoing emergency surgery. The accuracy in outcome prediction of the APACHE-II system was assessed by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Pearson correlation coefficient and its significance test. RESULTS: Of the 50 patients admitted during the study period, there were 42 (84%) survivors and 8 (16%) nonsurvivors. Mean APACHE-II score of the study population was 11.38 with a range of 1 to 23. The predicted death rate was 23% and the observed death rate was 16%. Mean APACHE-II score in survivors was 9.88, whereas in nonsurvivors it was 19.25. Using ROC analysis, the area under the curve was found to be .984. Correlation of APACHE-II score and predicted death rate showed perfect correlation, with r = .99 and P <.001 [R2 = .9993]. APACHE-II score between 11 and 15 showed a sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 73.8%, respectively, and APACHE-II score of 16 to 20 had a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5% and 100%, respectively. CONCLUSION: APACHE-II score between 11 and 20 was shown to be a better predictor of risk of mortality in patients with peritonitis due to hollow viscus perforation. Predicted mortality did not correlate with observed mortality in patients with APACHE-II scores of 1 to 10 and greater than 20. The APACHE-II scoring system can be used to assess group outcomes in patients with peritonitis due to hollow viscus perforation. However, it does not provide sufficient confidence for outcome prediction in individual patients.     

LAPAROTOMY FOR TRAUMA IN A REGIONAL CENTRE: THE EFFECT OF DELAY ON OUTCOME

From 1983 to 1990, 110 patients with abdominal trauma required laparotomy in the Albury-Wodonga region. Splenic and liver injuries occurred in 50% of cases, and bowel trauma in 20%. The mortality rate was 8.2% (nine deaths) and major postoperative complications occurred in 18 patients (16%). Delay in therapeutic intervention of greater than 4h from hospital admission led to a statistically significant increase in the complication rate (P < 0.01) despite a lower injury severity score in this group. Delayed repair of bowel injuries in particular led to an 80% major complication rate in survivors. A high index of clinical suspicion and the regular use of diagnostic peritoneal lavage is suggested to avoid such delays in diagnosis and subsequent surgery.     

Acute generalized peritonitis in African children: assessment of severity of illness using modified APACHE II score

Background: Generalized surgical acute abdomen is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among children. Severity assessment is useful in order to prioritize treatment and reduce complications. Patients with a high severity score are often faced with high morbidity and mortality, thus, requiring more intensive treatment than those with low severity scores. The purpose of the present study was to assess the severity of the acute abdomen in paediatric patients using a modification of the acute physiological and chronic ill‐health evaluation II score (APACHE II). Methods: Children admitted and operated on for generalized acute abdomen over a period of 7 years from January 1993 to December 1999 were prospectively studied. A study proforma was drafted and demographic, clinical, preoperative, operative and postoperative data on each patient were entered. Each patient had severity of illness assessed using APACHE II parameters with minor modification to make it applicable to children. Postoperative outcome and severity of illness were compared to determine any correlation. Results: There were 69 patients operated on within the period of the study. Age ranged from 3 months to 15 years, with a mean of 9.1 SD 4.3 years. Forty‐two patients (61.2%) were male and 27 (39.8%) were female. Typhoid intestinal perforation accounted for 35 (50.7%) and intestinal obstruction with or without intestinal gangrene accounted for nine (13%). Modified APACHE II score ranged from 0 to 18, mean 8.5 SD 5. For survivors, the mean score was 8; for non‐survivors, 13. Eight patients died (11.6%): four of 63 (6.4%) patients who scored 0?15 died; four of six (66.7%) patients who scored 16?18 (P < 00.05) died. A modified APACHE II score greater than 15 was associated with a significantly greater mortality. The data for postoperative morbidity and hospital stay were not conclusive. Conclusion: Although the APACHE II score was designed for adults, a modification can be suitably applied to predict mortality in children with generalized peritonitis. There will be a need to apply this to large number of patients in order to validate our finding.     

Predicting mortality, hospital length of stay and need for surgery in pediatrictrauma patients

Purpose: Pediatric trauma is one of the major health problems around the world which threats the life of children. The survival of injured children depends upon appropriate care, accurate triage and effective emergent surgery. The objective of this study was to determine the predictive values of injury severity score (ISS), new injury severity score (NISS) and revised trauma score (RTS) on children''s mortality, hospitalization and need for surgery. Methods: In this study, records of trauma patients under 15 years old transported from a trauma scene to emergency department of Poursina hospital from 2010 to 2011 were included. Statistical analysis was applied to determine the ISS, NISS and RTS ability in predicting the outcomes of interest. Results: There were 588 records in hospital registry system. The mean age of the patients was (7.3 ± 3.8) years, and 62.1% (n = 365) of patients were male. RTS was the more ability score to predict mortality with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.99 (95% CI, 0.99e1). In the hospital length of stay (LOS), ISS was best predictor for both the hospital LOS with AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67e0.76) and need for surgical surgery with AUC of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90e0.98). Conclusion: RTS as a physiological scoring system has a higher predicting AUC value in predicting mortality. The anatomic scoring systems of ISS and NISS have good performance in predicting of hospital LOS and need for surgery outcomes.     

New injury severity score (NISS) outperforms injury severity score (ISS) in the evaluation of severe blunt trauma patients

Purpose: The injury severity score (ISS) and new injury severity score (NISS) have been widely used in trauma evaluation. However, which scoring system is better in trauma outcome prediction is still disputed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the value of the two scoring systems in predicting trauma outcomes, including mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and ICU length of stay. Methods: The data were collected retrospectively from three hospitals in Zhejiang province, China. The comparisons of NISS and ISS in predicting outcomes were performed by using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Results: A total of 1825 blunt trauma patients were enrolled in our study. Finally, 1243 patients were admitted to ICU, and 215 patients died before discharge. The ISS and NISS were equivalent in predicting mortality (area under ORC curve [AUC]: 0.886 vs. 0.887, p ¼ 0.9113). But for the patients with ISS 25, NISS showed better performance in predicting mortality. NISS was also significantly better than ISS in predicting ICU admission and prolonged ICU length of stay. Conclusion: NISS outperforms ISS in predicting the outcomes for severe blunt trauma and can be an essential supplement of ISS. Considering the convenience of NISS in calculation, it is advantageous to promote NISS in China’s primary hospitals.     

SAPS 3 at dialysis commencement is predictive of hospital mortality in patients supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and acute dialysis

Objective: This study examined the association between hospital mortality and five illness–severity scoring systems evaluated at different time points in the intensive care unit (ICU) as well as clinical variables as predictors in critically ill patients supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and acute dialysis. Methods: This multicenter prospective observational study included 104 patients who received ECMO support and acute dialysis from January 2002 to December 2006. Patients’ demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analyzed as predictors of survival. The SAPS 2, APACHE II, SOFA, MODS, and SAPS 3 scores upon ICU admission and at acute dialysis commencement were evaluated to predict the patient's hospital mortality. Results: Hospital mortality for the study group was 76% (79/104). Among the five scoring systems, only SAPS 3 score showed a significant difference between survivors and non-survivors either upon ICU admission (p = 0.038) or at dialysis commencement (p = 0.001). SAPS 3 score at dialysis commencement showed the best discrimination ability by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SOFA, 0.55; SAPS 2, 0.56; MODS, 0.58; APACHE II, 0.59; and SAPS 3, 0.73). Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that SAPS 3 score at dialysis commencement (OR: 1.070, 95% CI: 1.016–1.216) and IABP usage before ECMO (OR: 4.181, 95% CI: 1.448–12.075) were two independent risk factors for hospital mortality. Conclusions: Among five common ICU scoring systems evaluated at different time points, SAPS 3 at dialysis commencement is the best risk adjustment systems to predict hospital mortality in critically ill patients supported by ECMO and acute dialysis. Furthermore, the SAPS 3 score at dialysis commencement and IABP usage before ECMO are two major independent predictors for hospital mortality in patients supported by ECMO and acute dialysis.     

Acute generalized peritonitis in adult African patients: Assessment of severity using APACHE II score

Background: Generalized surgical acute abdomen is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the Nigerian environment. Severity assessment is useful in order to prioritize treatment and reduce morbidity and mortality. High severity scores are often faced with high morbidity and mortality; these patients, often require more intensive treatment than those with low severity scores. The purpose of this study was to assess the severity of generalized surgical acute abdomen in adult patients using the Acute Physiological and Chronic Ill Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score. Methods: All patients (184) aged 16 years and above, admitted and operated for generalized acute abdomen over a period of 6 years from January 1993 to December 1998 were prospectively studied. Demographic, clinical, preoperative, operative and postoperative data on each patient were entered into a prepared proforma. Severity of illness was assessed using APACHE II parameters. Postoperative outcome and severity of illness were compared to determine the significance of severity of illness on postoperative outcome. Results: Thirty‐one patients (17%) died and 78 (42.4%) developed other postoperative complications. The APACHE II scores significantly correlated with the mortality and such other postoperative complications as residual intra‐abdominal abscess, abdominal sepsis, chest infection and faecal fistula (P < 0.05) and the duration of hospital stay (P < 0.05). The APACHE II scores ranged from 0 to 18, the mean score for survivors was 5.7, while it was 12.3 for those who did not survive. Only three (4%) patients who scored 0–5 died, six (9.4%) patients who scored 6–10, 15 (50%) patients who scored 11–15 and seven patients (87.5%) died who scored 16–20. Conclusion: The study showed that the severity of generalized peritonitis can be suitably assessed by APACHE II score in our environment and may serve as means of objective assessment of the quality of care. APACHE II score predicted mortality and morbidity in the patients studied. A further study is needed involving a larger number of patients to further validate our findings. We recommend to surgeons practicing in an environment similar to ours and to use the APACHE II scoring system in the assessment of patients with acute generalized peritonitis.      

Aortoiliac calcification correlates with 5-year survival after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Background

An anatomic severity grade (ASG) score to categorize and to define anatomic factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair was proposed. Other studies have previously reported that aortic anatomic complexity is a marker of survival and resource utilization after repair, although it remains unclear whether individual components of the ASG score independently contribute to survival. This study analyzed and validated an aortic and iliac artery calcium scoring system that can potentially predict survival after AAA repair.

Is there a need for the Fournier's gangrene severity index? Comparison of scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with Fournier's gangrene

Study Type – Prognosis (prospective cohort) Level of Evidence 2a What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Fournier's gangrene (FG) is a rare but life‐threatening disease challenging the treating medical staff. Despite the fact that antibiotic therapy combined with surgery and intensive care surveillance are performed as standard treatment, mortality rates remain high. There have been efforts to develop a reliable tool to predict severity of the disease, not only to identify patients at highest risk of major complications or death but also to provide a target for medical teams and researchers aiming to improve outcome and to gather information for counselling patients. Laor et al. published the FG severity index (FGSI) in 1995 presenting a complex prediction score solely for patients with FG. Fifteen years later, Yilmazlar et al. suggested a new and supposedly more powerful scoring system, the Uludag FGSI (UFGSI), adding an age score and an extent of disease score to the FGSI. In the present study population we applied two scoring systems for outcome prediction that are solitarily applicable in patients with FG (FGSI, UFGSI), as well as two general scoring systems such as the established age‐adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) and the recently introduced surgical Apgar Score (sAPGAR) to compare them and to test whether one system might be superior to the other. In addition, we identified potential prognostic factors in the study population. By contrast to many earlier studies, we performed a combined prospective and retrospective analysis and provided a 30‐day follow up. In the cohort of the present study, older patients with comorbidities as well as a need for mechanical ventilation and blood transfusion are at higher risk of lethal outcome. All scores are useful to predict mortality. Despite including more variables, the UFGSI does not seem to be more powerful than the FGSI. In daily routine we suggest applying ACCI and sAPGAR, as they are more easily calculated, generally applicable and well validated.

OBJECTIVE

• ? To compare four published scoring systems for outcome prediction (Fournier's gangrene severity index [FGSI], Uludag FGSI [UFGSI], age‐adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index [ACCI] and surgical Apgar Score [sAPGAR]) and evaluate risk factors in patients with Fournier's gangrene (FG).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

• ? In all, 44 patients were analysed. The scores were applied.
• ? A Mann–Whitney U‐test, Fisher's exact test, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were performed.

RESULTS

• ? The results of the present study show a significant association among FGSI (P= 0.002), UFGSI (P= 0.002), ACCI (P= 0.004), sAPGAR (P= 0.018) and death.
• ? The differences between the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the scores were not significant.
• ? Non‐survivors were older (P= 0.046), had a greater incidence of acute renal failure (P < 0.001) and coagulopathy (P= 0.041), were treated more often with mechanical ventilation (P= 0.001) and received more packed red blood cells (RBCs; P= 0.001).

CONCLUSION

• ? Older patients with comorbidities and need for mechanical ventilation and RBCs are at higher risk for death.
• ? In the present cohort, scores calculated easily at the bedside, such as ACCI and sAPGAR, seemed to be as good at predicting outcome in patients with FG as FGSI and UFGSI.

     

Repair of ischemic mitral regurgitation does not increase mortality or improve long-term survival in patients undergoing coronary artery revascularization: a propensity analysis

Background

The purpose of this study was to compare operative mortality and midterm outcome of patients with ischemic mitral regurgitation (MR) undergoing either coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) alone or CABG with mitral valve (MV) repair.

Methods

From 1996 to 2001, 51 consecutive patients underwent CABG with MV repair for ischemic MR. All patients in this group were matched to similar patients with ischemic MR undergoing CABG alone during the same 6-year period using propensity analysis (considering 24 covariates, including severity of MR and New York Heart Association [NYHA] class).

Results

Propensity score matching yielded 51 closely matched control patients. Preoperative MR severity was 3+ or 4+ in 94% of CABG with MV repair and 96% of CABG-alone patients, and 86% of patients in each group were NYHA class III or IV. Operative mortality was 3.9% ± 2.8% in both groups. Survival was also similar between CABG with MV repair and CABG alone at 1 year (84% ± 5% versus 82% ± 5%) and 3 years (70% ± 7% versus 71% ± 7% (p = 0.43). Among survivors, NYHA class improved at follow-up (50 ± 20 months) from 3.4 ± 0.7 to 1.7 ± 1.0 for CABG with MV repair (p < 0.001) and from 3.4 ± 0.7 to 1.8 ± 1.0 for CABG alone (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Operative mortality, midterm survival, and late functional class were similar between two well-matched groups of patients undergoing CABG for ischemic MR, differing only in the addition of MV repair. Whereas MV repair can be added safely to CABG in this group of high-risk patients without increasing mortality, its impact on late survival and functional class may be limited.     

Does Early Initiation of Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy Affect Outcome: Experience in a Tertiary Care Center

Abstract

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) requiring dialysis commonly occurs in critically ill patients and is associated with high mortality. Factors impacting outcomes of individuals with AKI who underwent continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), including early versus late initiation and duration of CRRT, were examined. Methods: Survival and recovery of renal function for patients with AKI in the intensive care unit were retrospectively examined over a 7-year period. Factors associated with mortality and renal recovery were analyzed based on severity of illness as defined by Cleveland Clinic Foundation (CCF) score. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis with backward elimination was performed to determine the most significant risk factors. Results: Of patients who underwent CRRT, 230/330 met inclusion criteria. During index admission 112/230 (48.7%) patients died. Median survival was 15.5 days [95% confidence interval (12.0, 18.0)]. Among survivors, renal recovery occurred in 84/118 (71.2%). Renal recovery overall was observed in 90/230 subjects (39.13%). A higher baseline CCF score correlated with higher mortality and lower probability of renal recovery. Patients initiated on CRRT > 6 days after AKI diagnosis had significantly higher mortality compared with those initiated earlier (odds ratio = 11.66, p = 0.0305). Patients receiving CRRT >10 days had a higher mortality rate compared with those with shorter exposure (71.3% vs. 45.5%, respectively, p = 0.012). Conclusions: CRRT remains an important dialysis modality in hemodynamically unstable patients with AKI. Mortality in these patients continues to be high. Renal recovery is high in survivors. Delay in initiation and length of CRRT exposure may portend poorer prognosis.     

Limitations of the pediatric risk of mortality score in assessing children with acute renal failure

The pediatric risk of mortality score (PRISM) incorporates 14 physiological and laboratory variables to calculate a patient's score, which is then adjusted for operative status and age to determine the probability of death. Because of the ethical issues surrounding the initiation of dialysis in critically ill children, a scoring system which could differentiate survivors from nonsurvivors prior to the initiation of dialysis would be useful to the clinician. Similarly, a score which could accurately estimate the probability of mortality in children with acute renal failure would be useful to third party payors attempting to evaluate the performance of individual care providers. We calculated PRISM scores on the day dialysis was initiated, retrospectively, in 31 children seen from 1984–1988 with the diagnosis of acute renal failure and requiring dialysis, in order to determine if the PRISM score was accurate in prediction of mortality. In addition, we calculated scores on the day of admission to the intensive care unit (DICU) in order to see if DICU scores accurately reflected mortality risk. The mean PRISM scores of nonsurvivors were significantly higher than the mean scores of survivors on the day dialysis therapy was initiated. However, overlap in the scores of survivors and nonsurvivors would limit the applicability of PRISM scores for clinical decision making. Children that developed acute renal failure requiring dialysis due to extrarenal diseases had a higher mortality rate than those that had primary renal disease (57% versus 12.5%,P<0.05). DICU scores underestimated the mortality of these patients. The decision to institute dialysis for children with acute renal failure cannot be based on PRISM scores calculated during the hospital course. The use of PRISM scores in quality assurance activities for children with acute renal failure is inappropriate.     

Long-term mortality outcome of victims of major trauma

Introduction

Although trauma is associated with major acute morbidity and mortality, its long-term outcome is less well defined. We sought to define the rate of readmission to hospital and long-term mortality of victims of major trauma.

Patients and Methods

All Calgary Health Region residents presenting to the regional trauma program with an injury severity score (ISS) ≥12 between April 1, 2002 and March 31, 2006 were included. Readmission to hospital within one-year and deaths occurring on or before September 30, 2008 were identified using regional and provincial databases.

Results

A total of 2652 incident major trauma episodes occurred among 2630 residents; the median age was 41.3 [interquartile range (IQR); 23.1-59.2] years, 1,915 (72%) were male, the median ISS was 19 (IQR; 16-25), and 717 (27%) required intensive care unit admission. Among 2350 survivors to hospital discharge, 537 readmissions occurred (median length of stay 4.0; IQR; 1.6-7.5 days) among 386 patients within one-year of the incident trauma episode, and 323 (60%) required surgery. Re-admitted patients were older, had higher ISS, had longer initial admission length of stay, and were less likely to have sports related injuries. Two hundred and fifteen (8%) of 2350 survivors to hospital discharge died during the median study follow-up duration of 1543 (IQR; 1181-1934) days. Case-fatality rates for 28 days, 90 days, and 365 days were 304 (11%), 327 (12%), and 370 (14%), respectively. Among survivors to 28 days (n = 2348), 66 (3%) suffered delayed one-year mortality (i.e. death occurred between 28 days and 365 days post-trauma). Age ≥65 years of age, initial hospitalisation for ≥28 days, and unintentional falls were independently associated with delayed one-year mortality.

Conclusions

Patients with major trauma are at risk for both acute and delayed adverse outcomes.     

Can SAPS II Predict Operative Mortality More Accurately Than POSSUM and P-POSSUM in Patients with Colorectal Carcinoma Undergoing Resection?

Background This study assessed the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II), POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Morbidity and Mortality), and P-POSSUM (Portsmouth-POSSUM) in patients with colorectal cancer undergoing curative or palliative resection. Methods Predicted mortality rates and the observed/expected mortality ratio were computed by means of each scoring system. The results were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors and between elective and emergency operations. Each model was assessed for its accuracy to predict the risk of death using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and risk stratification was generated as well. Results Some 224 patients were enrolled in the study. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 3.6% (n = 8). Predicted mortality rates generated by APACHE II, SAPS II, POSSUM, and P-POSSUM were 9.1%, 3.7%, 13.4%, and 5.2%, respectively. All the scoring systems assigned higher scores to those patients who died than to those who survived. Areas under the curve calculated by ROC curve analysis for APACHE II, SAPS II, POSSUM, and P-POSSUM were 0.786, 0.854, 0.793, and 0.831, respectively. Best stratification was achieved by the SAPS II score. Conclusions SAPS II and P-POSSUM were determined to be better predictors for patients with colorectal cancer undergoing resection. SAPS II also was found to have a higher degree of discriminatory power in colorectal resection for carcinoma. The predictive value of this useful severity score in several surgical subgroups must be examined to evaluate its routine use in risk-adjusted audit.     

Validierung des Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III Scoringsystems und Vergleich mit APACHE II auf einer deutschen Intensivstation

Objectives: The aim of the study was to systematically validate the APACHE III scoring system concerning severity of illness classification and prediction of hospital mortality. Such data have not yet been determined in a large population of critically ill patients in germany. Methods: 531 patients (ICU stay >4?hours) were prospectively and consecutively investigated. The day-1-scores and risk-of-death predictions of APACHE III and APACHE II were determined. A comparison was performed between both scoring systems, and the correlation with the observed hospital mortality was examined. Results: For both main validation criteria, as were discrimination (areas under the ROC-curves: APACHE III 0.873; APACHE II 0.859) and calibration (goodness-of-fit testings; p>0.05), both scoring systems provided satisfying results concerning hospital mortality, no system showing a significantly superior performance. Compared to the observed hospital mortality (13.4%), the prediction of APACHE III (13.2%) was extremely accurate, whereas the prediction of APACHE II was higher (16.8%). The standard (mortality index not significantly <or>1.0) provided by APACHE III was fulfilled, while the standard given by APACHE II was surpassed. The mean scores and the mean risk-of-death predictions for non-survivors were significantly higher compared to survivors (p<0.001). The individual score values of both systems were found to have a strong correlation (r=0.922). Conclusions: APACHE III (like APACHE II) provides a sufficient severity of disease classification and accurately predicts overall hospital mortality in a representatively large german population of a medical ICU. Therefore APACHE III can be regarded as validated for the use in comparable german ICUs. For use as a standard the more recently introduced APACHE III seems to be superior to the established but older APACHE II. However, each user will – depending on the particular questions to be addressed – carefully have to evaluate, if the improvement of prognostic accuracy really justifies the increased amount of workload necessary for calculating APACHE III score and risk prediction.     

Acute Thoracic Aortic Trauma: A Comparison of Endoluminal Stent Grafts with Open Repair and Nonoperative Management

The magnitude of injury necessary to cause a traumatic aortic tear often results in high mortality. Open surgery in these patients is often not well tolerated. The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes of three different treatment options in patients with traumatic aortic injuries. This was a retrospective review of a prospectively maintained computer database. Over a period of 33 months, 27 patients were diagnosed with thoracic aortic tears on the basis of a computed tomogram or a diagnostic angiogram. All patients were initially seen by trauma surgery staff and managed nonoperatively (n = 12) if the predicted mortality due to associated injuries approached 100%. Thoracic surgery staff were consulted on all other patients, and open surgical repair was performed in 10 patients. Thoracic stent grafts were used in five patients because of inability to ventilate following an attempted thoracotomy (n = 2) or associated organ injury that prohibited anticoagulation (head ± liver injury, n = 3). Overall, patients in the endovascular group had a higher injury severity score than that of the open surgical group (42 ± 9 vs. 32 ± 11). However, mortality was lowest in the endovascular group (20%), higher in the open surgical group (50%), and highest in the nonoperative group (92%). No paraplegia was noted, and all surviving patients have been free of complications during the follow-up period. Due to the small number of patients in each treatment, no strong recommendations can be made. However, the results of thoracic stent grafts for patients with traumatic thoracic pseudoaneurysms may prove to be a safer and less invasive treatment option. Presented at the Thirteenth Annual Winter Meeting of the Peripheral Vascular Surgery Society, Snowmass, CO, January 31-February 2, 2003.     

Comparison of prognostic models for burn patients: A retrospective nationwide registry study

BackgroundPrognostic burn index (PBI) is a unique model utilized to predict mortality of burn patients in Japan. In contrast, other prediction models are rarely used in Japan, and their accuracy and predictive value are unknown. The present study aimed to compare commonly used burn prediction models and determine the appropriate model for mortality prediction in Japanese burn patients.MethodsJapanese burn patients registered in the nationwide burn registry of Japanese Society for Burn Injury between April 1, 2011 and March 31, 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic performance of PBI was compared with Baux score, revised Baux score, abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI), Ryan score and Belgian outcome in burn injury score (BOBI). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.ResultsThe study included 7911 acute burn patients. The overall mortality rate was 10.7%, the median age was 52 (interquartile range, 26–72) years, and the median % total body surface area was 7% (interquartile range, 3%–17%). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for PBI, Baux score, ABSI, revised Baux score, Ryan score, and BOBI were 0.940 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.931–0.948), 0.943 (95% CI: 0.934–0.951; p = 0.002), 0.945 (95% CI: 0.937–0.953; p = 0.058), 0.946 (95% CI: 0.937–0.953; p = 0.002), 0.859 (95% CI: 0.846–0.870; p < 0.001), and 0.896 (95% CI: 0.885–0.905; p < 0.001), respectively.ConclusionAlthough the performance of PBI was good, it was not superior to the Baux score, revised Baux score, and ABSI. These three scores have a high prognostic accuracy. Hence, they are considered as alternative burn prognostic scores in Japan. The Baux score was an optimal prognostic model for patients with burns in Japan.     

Antimicrobial susceptibility and ESBL prevalence in Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from burn patients in the North West of Pakistan

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is one of the most prevalent pathogen in burn infections. Infections with P. aeruginosa are associated with higher mortality rate and antibiotic costs in hospitalized patients. These bacteria also produce enzymes called Expanded Spectrum Beta-Lactamases (ESBL) which render penicillins and cephalosporins inactive. The aim of this study was to assess the antimicrobial susceptibility pattern and prevalence of ESBL in P. aeruginosa in Peshawar, North West of Pakistan. During 2005–2006, one hundred and six P. aeruginosa isolates were collected from burn patients at a tertiary care hospital. Antibiotic susceptibility testing and ESBL detection were carried out according to Clinical Laboratory and Standards Institute (CLSI) criteria. Eighteen antibiotics were tested in this study. A total of 38 (35.85%) isolates were found to be ESBL producers. Thirty one (29.24%) isolates were resistant to 3 or more antibiotics (multidrug resistance). Meropenem and imipenem showed high potency with 99% and 96% isolates being susceptible respectively. Susceptibility to amikacin was 70%; gentamicin 25%; ciprofloxacin 49%; enoxacin 47%; gatifloxacin 42%; doxycycline 21% and to co-trimoxazole only 16%. This study reveals that P. aeruginosa isolated from burns in this region are multidrug resistant and produce ESBL in large proportions.     

A comparison of APACHE II and a clinical sickness score

The aim of this study was to compare the predictive power of a simple illness severity score (Clinical Sickness Score) to that of APACHE II in a District General Hospital intensive therapy unit. A prospective comparison was carried out on 97 consecutive adult patients whose severity of illness was scored one hour after admission using both the Clinical Sickness Score and APACHE II. Intensive Therapy Unit and hospital outcomes were recorded for each patient. The Clinical Sickness Score and APACHE II identified survivors and nonsurvivors with similar power (p less than 0.001). There was a highly significant correlation between the two scoring systems for hospital survivors and nonsurvivors together (r = 0.5418, r2 = 0.28, p = less than 0.0001) and for hospital survivors alone (r = 0.6102, r2 = 0.37, p = 0.0001). Correlation for hospital nonsurvivors was not significant (r = 0.1629, r2 = 0.027, p = 0.3134). The positive predictive values of APACHE II were between 5% and 10% more sensitive than the Clinical Sickness Score for hospital outcome. Admission Clinical Sickness Score and APACHE II scores had similar predictive power in this study.