Temporal Trends of Asthma Mortality Rates in Brazil from 1980 to 2010

Objective. Mortality from asthma has varied among countries during the last several decades. This study aimed to identify temporal trends of asthma mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 2010. Method. We analyzed 6840 deaths of patients aged 5–34 years that occurred in Brazil with the underlying cause of asthma. We applied a log-linear model using Poisson regression to verify peaks and trends. We also calculated the point estimation and 95% confidence interval (CI 95%) of the annual percent change (APC) of the mortality rates, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) for 2001–2010. Results. A decline was observed from 1980 to 1992 [APC = ?3.4 (?5.0 to ?1.8)], followed by a nonsignificant rise until 1996 [APC = 6.8 (?1.4 to 15.6)], and a new downward trend from 1997 to 2010 [APC = ?2.7 (?3.9 to ?1.6)]. The APCs varied according to age strata: 5–14 years from 1980 to 2010 [?0.3 (?1.1 to 0.5)]; 15–24 years from 1980 to 1991 [?2.1 (?5.0 to 0.9)], from 1992 to 1996 [6.8 (?6.7 to 22.2)], and from 1997 to 2010 [?3.9 (?5.7 to ?2.0)]; 24–25 years from 1980 to 1992 [?2.5 (?4.6 to ?0.3)], from 1993 to 1995 [12.0 (?21.1 to 59.1)], and from 1996–2010 [?1.7 (?3.0 to ?0.4)]. AAPC from 2001 to 2010 was ?1.7 (?3.0 to ?0.4); the decline for this period was significant for patients over 15 years old, women, and those living in the Southeast region. Conclusion. Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been declining since the late 1990s.     

Worldwide mortality from cirrhosis: an update to 2002

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Cirrhosis mortality has registered large changes over the last few decades. METHODS: Age-standardized (world standard) cirrhosis mortality rates per 100,000 were computed for 41 countries worldwide over the period 1980-2002 using data from the WHO mortality database. RESULTS: In the early 1980s, the highest rates were in Mexico, Chile (around 55/100,000 men and over 14/100,000 women), France, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Hungary and Romania (around 30-35/100,000 men and 10-15/100,000 women). Mortality from cirrhosis has been steadily declining in most countries worldwide since the mid or late 1970s (annual percent change, APC, between -5% and -1.5% in the last decade only for both sexes). In southern Europe, rates in the early 2000s were less than halved compared to earlier decades. In contrast, rates have been rising in Eastern European countries to reach extremely high values in the mid 1990s, and declined only thereafter. In the UK rates were still steadily rising (APC around +7% in men and +3% in women from England and Wales, and +9% in men and +7% in women from Scotland). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from cirrhosis shows favourable trends in most countries of the world, following the reduction in alcohol consumption and hepatitis B and C virus infection. The steady upward trends observed over more recent calendar periods in the UK and central and eastern European countries are attributed to the persistent increase in the prevalence of alcohol consumption.     

AIDS mortality trends in Mexico, 1988-1997

OBJECTIVE: To assess the geographic distribution and trends of AIDS deaths for the 1988-1997 period in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated for the 1988-1997 period. A trend test was performed using the simple linear regression method. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) were calculated for each Mexican state. RESULTS: During the study period (1988-1997), there were 26,999 AIDS deaths in Mexico; 86.5% (23,354) of them were among men. The mean age at the time of death was 38.4 years for men and 37.7 years for women (p > 0.05). The crude AIDS mortality rate for the period of study was 3.02 cases (95% CI: 2.94, 3.06) per 100,000 inhabitants. The adjusted rate was 3.13 (95% CI: 3.09, 3.17), with 5.22 (95% CI: 5.16-5.29) for men and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.79-0.84) for women. The states with the highest SMR were: Baja California (SMR: 248.69; 95% CI: 234.02-263.36), Mexico City (SMR: 220.74; 95% CI: 215.57-225.91), and Jalisco (SMR: 169.16; 95% CI: 162.88-175.44). Similarly, a Potential Lost Life Years Index (PLLYI) analysis by state showed a greater risk of premature AIDS mortality in the same states [Baja California (PLLYI index: 236.33; 95% CI: 233.97-238.68), Mexico City (PLLYI: 194.68; 95% CI: 193.88-195.48), and Jalisco (PLLYI: 170.69; 95% CI: 169.60-171.79)]. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality trends indicate that AIDS mortality in Mexico increased by an annual rate of 23% between 1988 and 1997. The adjusted AIDS mortality rate increased from 0.75 per 100,000 in 1988, to 4.20 per 100,000 in 1997, with the largest burden of mortality in men (male to female ratio of 6:1). We therefore expect that a decreasing effect on AIDS mortality trends will be observed in the next years. The English version of this paper is available too at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.     

Worldwide mortality from cirrhosis

Background/Aims: Cirrhosis mortality has registered large changes over the last few decades. Aim: To report worldwide mortality due to cirrhosis over the period 1980-2002.Methods: Age-standardized (world standard) cirrhosis mortality rates per 100,000 were computed for 41 countries worldwide over the period 1980-2002 using data from WHO mortality database.Results: In the early 1980s, the highest rates were in Mexico, Chile (around 55/100,000 men and 14/100,000 women), France, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Hungary and Romania (around 30-35/100,000 men and 10-15/ 100,000 women). Mortality from cirrhosis has been steadily declining in most countries worldwide since the mid or late 1970s (annual percent change, APC, between -5% and -1.5% in the last decade only for both sexes). In southern Europe, rates in the early 2000s were less than halved compared to earlier decades. In contrast, rates have been rising in Eastern European countries to reach extremely high values in the mid 1990s, and declined only thereafter. In the UK rates were still steadily rising (APC around +7% in men and +3% in women from England and Wales, and +9% in men and +7% in women from Scotland). Conclusions: Mortality from cirrhosis shows favourable trends in most countries of the world, following the reduction in alcohol consumption and hepatitis B and C virus infection. The steady upward trends observed over more recent calendar periods in the UK and central and eastern European countries are attributed to the persistent increase in the prevalence of alcohol consumption.Abstract published under the permision of the editor of J Hepatol     

Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mexico, 1981-1998. Inconsistencies between reports of the WHO and the Ministry of health

OBJECTIVE: To describe the tuberculosis morbidity and mortality trends in Mexico, by comparing the data reported by the Ministry of Health (MH) and the World Health Organization (WHO) between 1981 and 1998. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The number of cases notified in the past few years, their rates, and the trends of the disease in Mexico were analyzed. The incidence of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis was estimated for 1997 and 1998 with the annual tuberculosis infection risk (ATIR), to estimate the percentage of bacilliferous cases in 1997-1998. RESULTS: WHO reported more tuberculosis cases for Mexico than the MH. However, this difference has decreased throughout the years. The notification of smear-positive cases remained stable during 1993-1998. The estimated percentages of detection were 66% for 1997 and 26% for 1998 (based on ATIR of 0.5%). Tuberculosis mortality decreased gradually (6.7% per year) between 1990 and 1998, whereas the number of new cases increased, suggesting the persistence of disease transmission in the population. CONCLUSIONS: Inconsistencies between case notifications from national data and WHO were considerable, but decreased progressively during the study period. According to ATIR estimations, a considerable number of infectious tuberculosis cases are not detected. The English version of this paper is available at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.     

Reaching millennium development goal 4 - the Gambia

Objective To describe how, through a DSS in a rural area of The Gambia, it has been possible to measure substantial reductions in child mortality rates and how we investigated whether the decline paralleled the registered fall in malaria incidence in the country. Methods Demographic surveillance data spanning 19.5 years (1 April 1989–30 September 2008) from 42 villages around the town of Farafenni, The Gambia, were used to estimate childhood mortality rates for neonatal, infant, child (1–4 years) and under‐5 age groups. Data were presented in five a priori defined time periods, and annual rates per 1000 live births were derived from Kaplan–Meier survival probabilities. Results From 1989–1992 to 2004–2008, under‐5 mortality declined by 56% (95% CI: 48–63%), from 165 (95% CI: 151–181) per 1000 live births to 74 (95% CI: 65–84) per 1000 live births. In 1‐ to 4‐year‐olds, mortality during the period 2004–2008 was 69% (95% CI: 60–76%) less than in 1989–1992. The corresponding mortality decline in infants was 39% (95% CI: 23–52%); in neonates, it was 38% (95% CI: 13–66%). The derived annual under‐5 mortality rates declined from 159 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 45 per 1000 live births in 2008, thus implying an attainment of MDG4 seven years in advance of the target year of 2015. Conclusion Achieving MDG4 is possible in poor, rural areas of Africa through widespread deployment of relatively simple measures that improve child survival, such as immunisation and effective malaria control.     

The shifting pattern of cause-specific mortality in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected and non-infected injecting drug users

AIMS: To monitor changes in cause-specific mortality before and after 1997 according to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) serological status in a cohort of injecting drug users (IDUs) observed for a 17-year period (1987--2004). DESIGN: Community-based prospective cohort study of IDUs recruited in three acquired immunodeficiency virus (AIDS) prevention centres (1987--96) and followed-up until to 2004. METHODS: We obtained annual overall mortality rates and mortality rates by specific causes according to HIV status. Poisson regression models were adjusted to compare mortality rates between calendar periods. Significant changes in slope trends were evaluated by join-point regression. Disease-specific mortality rates were estimated using competing risk models. FINDINGS: From 7186 IDUs recruited (80677.218 person-years), 1589 deaths were observed with an overall mortality rate of 19.7 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 18.8-20.7). This rate decreased from 22.9 per 1000 (95% CI, 21.4-24.7) before 1997 to 17.4 per 1000 (95% CI, 16.3-18.6) after 1997 [relative risk (RR) 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.92]. Risk of death for HIV-positive was four times higher than for HIV-negative (RR 4.08; 95% CI, 3.63-4.58). Among HIV-positive individuals a significantly decreased change point in trend was found in 1997 for both total and AIDS mortality. HIV-negative individuals showed a similar pattern for drug overdose, suicide and accident mortality. Both groups showed an increase in proportional mortality by liver-related causes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Furthermore, a progressively increasing trend was observed for the three causes. However, there were no significant differences according to serological groups. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular and cancer mortality are increasing among IDUs, but the increases are not related to HIV infection. We have not found a link between highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) introduction and increases in mortality for specific causes.     

Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in the U.S. from 1980 through 2002: concealed leveling of mortality rates.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of our study was to examine age-specific mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly those among younger adults. BACKGROUND: Trends for obesity, diabetes, blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome among young adults raise concerns about the mortality rates from CHD in this group. METHODS: We used mortality data from 1980 to 2002 to calculate age-specific mortality rates from CHD for U.S. adults age > or =35 years. RESULTS: Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased by 52% in men and 49% in women. Among women age 35 to 54 years, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in mortality was -5.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] -5.8 to -4.9) from 1980 until 1989, -1.2% (95% CI -1.6 to -0.8) from 1989 until 2000, and 1.5% (95% CI -3.4 to 6.6) from 2000 until 2002. Among men age 35 to 54 years, the EAPC in mortality was -6.2% (95% CI -6.4 to -5.9) from 1980 until 1989, -2.3% (95% CI -2.6 to -2.1) from 1989 until 2000, and -0.5% (95% CI -3.7 to 2.9) from 2000 until 2002. Among women and men age > or =55 years, the estimated annual percentage decrease in mortality from CHD accelerated in more recent years compared with earlier periods. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rates for CHD among younger adults may serve as a sentinel event. Unfavorable trends in several risk factors for CHD provide a likely explanation for the observed mortality rates.     

The slowdown in the reduction rate of premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases puts the Americas at risk of achieving SDG 3.4: A population trend analysis of 37 countries from 1990 to 2017

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are leading causes of mortality and morbidity in the Americas, resulting in substantial negative economic and social impacts. This study describes the trends and inequalities of CVD burden in the Americas to guide programmatic interventions and health system responses. We examined the CVD burden trends by age, sex, and countries between 1990 and 2017 and quantified social inequalities in CVD burden across countries. In 2017, CVD accounted for 2 million deaths in the Americas, 29% of total deaths. Age‐standardized DALY rates caused by CVD declined by −1.9% (95% uncertainty interval, −2.0 to −1.7) annually from 1990 to 2017. This trend varied with a striking decreasing trend over the interval 1994‐2003 (annual percent change (APC) −2.4% [−2.5 to 2.2]) and 2003‐2007 (APC −2.8% [−3.4 to −2.2]). This was followed by a slowdown in the rate of decline over 2007‐2013 (APC −1.83% [−2.1 to −1.6]) and a stagnation during the most recent period 2013‐2017 (APC −0.1% [−0.5 to 0.3]). The social inequality in CVD burden along the socio‐demographic gradient across countries decreased 2.75‐fold. The CVD burden and related social inequality have both substantially decreased in the Americas since 1990, driven by the reduction in premature mortality. This trend occurred in parallel with the improvement in the socioeconomic development and health care of the region. The deceleration and stagnation in the rate of improvement of CVD burden and persistent social inequality pose major challenges to reduce the CVD burden and the achievement of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals Target 3.4.     

Lung cancer mortality trends by geographical area in Spanish women, 1980-2005.

OBJECTIVE: To provide up-to-date information and analyse recent changes in lung cancer mortality trends among women. DESIGN: The present study analysed subjects by geographical area in Spain during the period 1980-2005 using joinpoint regression models. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASR) for lung cancer were computed from death certificate data obtained from the official authorities in Spain. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when significant changes in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. RESULTS: The overall ASR changed during the period studied from 5.7 per 100,000 women in 1980 to 8.2/100,000 in 2005, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. Joinpoint regression analysis detected different trends in most Spanish communities. These changes occurred in the late 1980s or early 1990s. ASR among those women aged 35-64 years doubled during the period of study, from 5.6 in 1980 to 11.3 in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Time trends in lung cancer mortality among women are increasing sharply, especially in the age group 35-64 years, indicating the start of an epidemic phenomenon of lung cancer in women.     

Trends in coronary heart disease in France during the second half of the 1990s.

BACKGROUND: Data on the recent evolution in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incidence rates are lacking in France. This paper aims to investigate whether the declining trends observed from 1985-1993 still persist in the second half of the 1990s. METHODS: Population registers of acute CHD have been implemented in three specific geographical areas, first as part of the MONICA Project (1985-1993) and, since 1997, according to a simplified registration procedure. Weighted Poisson regressions have been used to investigate time trends in CHD events in men and women aged 35-64 after correction for registration differences. RESULTS: Data obtained from 1997-2000 showed that the north-to-south gradient of decreasing frequency of CHD events in France was still present. Besides, they revealed no specific trend in CHD morbidity by centre and gender, except in Lille (in the north of France) where events tended to increase in women. Coronary heart disease mortality rates in recent years were decreasing in men, particularly in the north and east of France, but were stable in women with, even, a rising tendency in the north. CONCLUSION: The decreasing trend in CHD events in France observed from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s seemed to markedly slow down in the second half of the 1990s.     

Type 1 diabetes mellitus in Czech children diagnosed in 1990-1997: a significant increase in incidence and male predominance in the age group 0-4 years. Collaborators of the Czech Childhood Diabetes Registry.

AIMS: To overview total, age-and sex-specific incidence rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus and their trends in Czech children 0-14 years of age in the period of 1990-1997. METHODS: Type 1 DM cases were ascertained by two independent sources, data of general population were obtained from the annual demographic reports of the State Statistic Bureau. Incidence rates were computed using both ascertainment sources combined. RESULTS: In the study period 1.1.1990-31.12.1997, the total incidence was 10.1 (95% CI 9.6-10.6) per 100,000/year in both sexes, 10.0 (95% CI 9.4-10.7) in boys, and 10.2 (95% CI 9.5-11.0) in girls. The total age-standardized incidence was 9.9 (95% CI 9.4-10.4). The total incidence had a significant increasing trend over the study period (P= 10(-4), annual increment 4.3%). A significant increasing trend was also found in the groups of children 0-4 (P = 0.033, increment 6.9%) and 5-9 years at diagnosis (P = 0.038, increment 4.8%). Statistically significant male predominance was observed in the group diagnosed at age 0-4 years (boys/girls ratio of incidence 1.33, P = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: We report the first population-based epidemiological data on incidence of childhood Type 1 DM in the Czech Republic. The incidence has increased significantly during the last 8 years. The present incidence is at an intermediate level compared to other European countries.     

Tuberculosis epidemiology in six provinces of Vietnam after the introduction of the DOTS strategy.

SETTING: Six provinces in Vietnam where the DOTS strategy was introduced in 1989. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of improved tuberculosis (TB) control on TB epidemiology in Vietnam. METHODS: Data from the surveillance system in the period 1990-2003 were analysed to assess trends of notification rates and the mean ages of notified cases. Data from repeated tuberculin surveys in the period 1986-2002 were estimated to assess the prevalence of TB infection, the annual risk of infection and its trend using various cut-off points in those with and without bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) scar. RESULTS: Age-standardised notification rates in the period 1996-2003 declined significantly, by 2.6% to 5.9% per year, in five provinces. However, in four provinces notification rates in the age group 15-24 years increased significantly, by 4.5% to 13.6% per year, during this period. The mean age of newly diagnosed patients with smear-positive TB increased up to 1995 but decreased thereafter. The annual risk of TB infection showed a significant annual decrease (4.9% per year) in one province in surveys performed between 1986 and 1997, and in two provinces (6.6% and 4.7%) in surveys conducted between 1993 and 2002. CONCLUSION: These data suggest limited impact to date of the DOTS strategy in Vietnam.     

Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and disease among health care workers, Chiang Rai, Thailand.

SETTING: A provincial referral hospital in northern Thailand, where a cross-sectional study during 1995-1996 reported on the occupational risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. OBJECTIVE: To describe the effectiveness of prevention strategies for nosocomial tuberculosis (TB). DESIGN: A prospective study among health care workers (HCW) including annual tuberculin skin test (TST) screening and active TB surveillance. Following a comprehensive risk assessment, preventive interventions were implemented targeting HCWs, hospitalised patients, and the hospital environment. RESULTS: The number of pulmonary TB cases diagnosed increased steadily from 102 in 1990 to 356 in 1999. The TST conversion rate was 9.3 (95% CI 3.3-15) per 100 person-years (py) in 1995-1997, but declined steadily to 2.2 (95% CI 0.0-5.1) in 1999. HCWs first screened within 12 months of employment had higher TST conversion rates (adjusted RR = 9.5, 95% CI 1.8-49.5) compared to those employed for longer than 12 months. The annual rate of active TB per 100 000 HCWs was 536 in 1995-1999. CONCLUSION: These HCWs were exposed to active TB patients and were at risk for M. tuberculosis infection, particularly during their first 12 months of employment. Implementation of nosocomial TB control measures in 1996 was followed by declining TST conversion rates, despite increasing exposure to active TB patients.     

Impact of hepatitis C infection on long-term mortality of injecting drug users from 1990 to 2002: differences before and after HAART

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection on long-term mortality in injecting drug users (IDU). DESIGN: Community-based prospective cohort study. METHODS: Mortality data from follow-up in clinical sites and the Mortality Registry by December 2002 were collected for 3247 IDU who attended three centres for voluntary counselling and testing for HIV/AIDS, HCV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 1990-1996. Mortality rates by Poisson regression were adjusting for age, sex, duration of drug use, education, HBV and calendar period (1990-1997 and 1998-2002). RESULTS: Overall, 11.2% were HIV/HCV negative, 43.7% positive only for HCV and 45.1% positive for both. During 26 772 person-years of follow-up, 585 deaths were detected (2.19/100 person-years). Before 1997, HIV/HCV-positive subjects had a five-fold increase in risk of death [relative risk (RR), 5.4; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.5-11.4] compared with those negative for both; after 1997, a three-fold increase was observed (RR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.7-4.2). Being HCV positive/HIV negative was not associated with an increase in the risk of death either before (RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.6-2.9) or after (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-1.9) 1997 compared with HCV/HIV negative. While increases in mortality were seen in those HCV/HIV negative (RR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.7-3.7) and those only positive for HCV (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0-2.1), a 20% reduction among coinfected IDUs was observed after 1997 (interaction P = 0.033). CONCLUSIONS: HCV/HIV coinfection has had a large impact on mortality in IDU. After 1997, mortality increased in HIV negative/HCV positive subjects and decreased in HIV positive/HCV positive.     

The impact of HIV on mortality rates in the complete UK haemophilia population

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of HIV-1 infection on subsequent mortality in a complete population. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: A total of 7250 haemophilic males were registered in the UK Haemophilia Centre Doctors' Organisation database, 1977-1998. Most were infected with hepatitis C virus. In the early 1980s, 1246 were infected with HIV-1 from contaminated clotting factor concentrate. The main outcome measure was the date of death. RESULTS: During 1977-1984 annual mortality in severely haemophilic males was 0.9%. For those with HIV, annual mortality increased progressively from 1985 reaching over 10% during 1993-1996 before falling to 5% in 1997-1999, whereas without HIV it remained approximately 0.9% throughout 1985-1999. For moderately/mildly haemophilic males the annual mortality was 0.4% during 1977-1984. Without HIV it remained approximately 0.4% throughout 1985-1999, but with HIV it was similar to that in severe haemophilia with HIV. Survival was strongly related to age at HIV infection. The large temporal changes in mortality with HIV were largely accounted for by HIV-related conditions. Without HIV annual liver disease mortality remained below 0.2% throughout 1985-1999, but with HIV it was 0.2% during 1985-1990, 0.8% during 1991-1996, and 0.8% during 1997-1999. CONCLUSION: These data provide a direct estimate of the effect of HIV-1 infection on subsequent mortality in a population with a high prevalence of hepatitis C. From approximately 3 years after HIV infection, large, progressive increases in mortality were seen. From 1997, after the introduction of effective treatment, substantial reductions occurred, although mortality from liver disease remained high.     

Ulcerative colitis: no rise in mortality in a European-wide population based cohort 10 years after diagnosis

BACKGROUND: Population based studies have revealed varying mortality for patients with ulcerative colitis but most have described patients from limited geographical areas who were diagnosed before 1990. AIMS: To assess overall mortality in a European cohort of patients with ulcerative colitis, 10 years after diagnosis, and to investigate national ulcerative colitis related mortality across Europe. METHODS: Mortality 10 years after diagnosis was recorded in a prospective European-wide population based cohort of patients with ulcerative colitis diagnosed in 1991-1993 from nine centres in seven European countries. Expected mortality was calculated from the sex, age and country specific mortality in the WHO Mortality Database for 1995-1998. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: At follow-up, 661 of 775 patients were alive with a median follow-up duration of 123 months (107-144). A total of 73 deaths (median follow-up time 61 months (1-133)) occurred compared with an expected 67. The overall mortality risk was no higher: SMR 1.09 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.37). Mortality by sex was SMR 0.92 (95% CI 0.65 to 1.26) for males and SMR 1.39 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.93) for females. There was a slightly higher risk in older age groups. For disease specific mortality, a higher SMR was found only for pulmonary disease. Mortality by European region was SMR 1.19 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.53) for the north and SMR 0.82 (95% CI 0.45-1.37) for the south. CONCLUSIONS: Higher mortality was not found in patients with ulcerative colitis 10 years after disease onset. However, a significant rise in SMR for pulmonary disease, and a trend towards an age related rise in SMR, was observed.     

Declining syphilis prevalence in pregnant women in Nairobi since 1995: another success story in the STD field?

Untreated maternal syphilis during pregnancy will cause adverse pregnancy outcomes in more than 60% of the infected women. In Nairobi, Kenya, the prevalence of syphilis in pregnant women of 2.9% in 1989, showed a rise to 6.5% in 1993, parallel to an increase of HIV-1 prevalence rates. Since the early 1990s, decentralized STD/HIV prevention and control programmes, including a specific syphilis control programme, were developed in the public health facilities of Nairobi. Since 1992 the prevalence of syphilis in pregnant women has been monitored. This paper reports the findings of 81,311 pregnant women between 1994 and 1997. A total of 4244 women (5.3%) tested positive with prevalence rates of 7.2% (95% CI: 6.7-7.7) in 1994, 7.3% (95% CI: 6.9-7.7) in 1995, 4.5% (95% CI: 4.3-4.8) in 1996 and 3.8% (95% CI: 3.6-4.0) in 1997. In conclusion, a marked decline in syphilis seroprevalence in pregnant women in Nairobi was observed since 1995-96 (P<0.0001, Chi-square test for trend) in contrast to upward trends reported between 1990 and 1994-95 in the same population.     

Increasing prevalence of asthma in UK primary care during the 1990s.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate recent prevalence trends of physician-diagnosed asthma in primary care in the UK, and to test the hypothesis that the asthma epidemic in the UK peaked in the mid-1990s and is currently declining. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of asthma patients was obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). From January 1990 to February 1999, asthmatics were followed up to death, censoring or mention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in their clinical record. Prevalence rates of ever and managed asthma were obtained by sex, age and calendar year. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 1998, annual prevalence rates of managed physician-diagnosed asthma in women rose from 3.01% (95%CI 2.99-3.03) to 5.14% (95%CI 5.10-5.18), and in men from 3.44% (95%CI 3.41-3.46) to 5.06% (95 %CI 5.02-5.10) (P for trend <0.01 in both). In 1998, prevalence rates of managed asthma in children aged 5-14 affected 7.86% (95%CI 7.71-8.00) of girls and 10.30% (95%CI 10.15-10.47) of boys. Increasing prevalence rates in adult asthma (maximum 4.11% in 1998, 95%CI 4.03-4.19) and elderly asthma (maximum 3.37% in 1998, 95%CI 3.29-3.46) were observed as well in 1998. The study shows that the burden of asthma in UK primary care during the 1990s was still increasing.     

Trends in mortality due to invasive mycotic diseases in the United States, 1980-1997.

To determine national trends in mortality due to invasive mycoses, we analyzed National Center for Health Statistics multiple-cause-of-death record tapes for the years 1980 through 1997, with use of their specific codes in the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9 codes 112.4-118 and 136.3). In the United States, of deaths in which an infectious disease was the underlying cause, those due to mycoses increased from the tenth most common in 1980 to the seventh most common in 1997. From 1980 through 1997, the annual number of deaths in which an invasive mycosis was listed on the death certificate (multiple-cause [MC] mortality) increased from 1557 to 6534. In addition, rates of MC mortality for the different mycoses varied markedly according to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status but were consistently higher among males, blacks, and persons > or =65 years of age. These data highlight the public health importance of mycotic diseases and emphasize the need for continuing surveillance.