Prediabetes and incident heart failure in hypertensive patients: Results from the Swedish Primary Care Cardiovascular Database

Backgrounds and aimsThe cardiovascular risk conferred by concomitant prediabetes in hypertension is unclear. We aimed to examine the impact of prediabetes on incident heart failure (HF) and all-cause mortality, and to describe time in therapeutic blood pressure range (TTR) in a hypertensive real-world primary care population.Methods and resultsIn this retrospective cohort study, 9628 hypertensive individuals with a fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in 2006–2010 but no diabetes, cardiovascular or renal disease were followed to 2016; median follow-up was 9 years. Prediabetes was defined as FPG 5.6–6.9 mmol/L, and in a secondary analysis as 6.1–6.9 mmol/L. Study outcomes were HF and all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) were compared for prediabetes with normoglycemia using Cox regression. All blood pressure values from 2001 to the index date (first FPG in 2006–2010) were used to calculate TTR. At baseline, 51.4% had prediabetes. The multivariable-adjusted HR (95% confidence intervals) was 0.86 (0.67–1.09) for HF and 1.06 (0.90–1.26) for all-cause mortality. For FPG defined as 6.1–6.9 mmol/L, the multivariable-adjusted HR were 1.05 (0.80–1.39) and 1.42 (1.19–1.70), respectively. The prediabetic group had a lower TTR (p < 0.05).ConclusionsPrediabetes was not independently associated with incident HF in hypertensive patients without diabetes, cardiovascular or renal disease. However, prediabetes was associated with all-cause mortality when defined as FPG 6.1–6.9 mmol/L (but not as 5.6–6.9 mmol/L). TTR was lower in the prediabetic group, suggesting room for improved blood pressure to reduce incident heart failure in prediabetes.     

Glycemic Markers and Heart Failure Subtypes: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BackgroundAlthough diabetes increases heart failure (HF) risk, it is unclear how various dysglycemia markers (hemoglobin A_1C [HbA_1C], fasting plasma glucose [FPG], homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, and fasting insulin) are associated with HF subtypes (HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF] and HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF]). We assessed the relation of markers of dysglycemia and risks of HFpEF and HFrEF.Methods and ResultsWe included 6688 adults without prevalent cardiovascular disease who attended the first MESA visit (2000–2002) and were followed for incident hospitalized HF (HFpEF or HFrEF). Association of glycemic markers and status (normoglycemia, prediabetes, diabetes) with HFpEF and HFrEF were evaluated using adjusted Cox models. Over a median follow-up of 14.9 years, there were 356 HF events (145 HFpEF, 173 HFrEF, and 38 indeterminate HF events). Diabetes status conferred higher risks of HFpEF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.57–2.68) and HFrEF (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.38–2.97) compared with normoglycemia. Higher levels of FPG (≥126 mg/dL) and HbA_1C (≥6.5%) were associated with similarly higher risks of HFpEF (HR for FPG 1.96, 95% CI 1.21–3.17; HR for HbA_1C 2.00, 95% CI 1.20–3.31) and HFrEF (HR for FPG 1.84, 95% CI 1.18–2.88; HR for HbA_1C 1.99, 95% CI 1.28–3.09) compared with reference values. Prediabetic range HbA_1C (5.7%–6.4%) or FPG (100%–125 mg/dL), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, and fasting insulin were not significantly associated with HFpEF or HFrEF.ConclusionsAmong community-dwelling individuals, HbA_1C and FPG in the diabetes range were each associated with higher risks of HFpEF and HFrEF, with similar magnitudes of their associations.Lay AbstractHeart failure (HF) has 2 major subtypes (the heart's inability to pump or to fill up). Diabetes is known to increase HF risk, but its effects and that of markers of high glucose levels (fasting blood glucose and hemoglobin A_1C) on the occurrence of HF subtypes remains unknown. Among 6688 adults without known cardiovascular disease followed for nearly 15 years, diabetes conferred significantly higher risks of both HF types, compared with those with normal blood glucose levels. Higher levels of fasting blood glucose and hemoglobin A_1C were similarly associated with higher risks of both types of HF.     

Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Outcomes by Levels of Baseline-Predicted Cardiovascular Risk: The Look AHEAD Study

BackgroundWe evaluated the associations of cardiorespiratory fitness with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by levels of baseline-predicted ASCVD risk among adults with type 2 diabetes.MethodsWe analyzed data from 4203 adults with type 2 diabetes in the Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) study. Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed using maximal exercise testing and categorized into low, moderate, and high; baseline-predicted. ASCVD risk was calculated using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equation. We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ASCVD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke).ResultsOver a median of 9.6 years, there were 295 ASCVD events. The effect of fitness on outcomes was different across levels of 10-year predicted ASCVD risk (P for interaction < .001). Among participants with a baseline-predicted risk of 7.5% to 20%, the HR of low (vs high) fitness group was 1.94 (95% CI, 1.12-3.35) for ASCVD events. Fitness was not significantly associated with ASCVD events in the groups with baseline-predicted risk <7.5% (HR 1.53; 95% CI, 0.49-4.76) or ≥20% (HR 1.40; 95% CI, 0.88-2.24). A similar pattern was observed for myocardial infarction and stroke separately.ConclusionsIn a large sample of type 2 diabetes individuals, the association of low fitness with incident ASCVD was modified by the baseline-predicted 10-year ASCVD risk. Our findings suggest the utility of assessing fitness in ASCVD risk stratification in type 2 diabetes, especially among those with intermediate predicted 10-year risk of ASCVD.     

Is race or ethnicity associated with under-utilization of statins among women in the United States: The study of women's health across the nation

BackgroundRates of statin use among minority women are unclear.HypothesisWe hypothesized that statin use would vary by race/ethnicity with lower rates among minority women compared with Whites.MethodsData from the study of women''s health across the nation, a multiethnic cohort of women collected between 2009 to 2011 were used to examine reported statin use by race/ethnicity and risk profile. Multivariable logistic modeling was performed to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of statin treatment.ResultsOf the 2399 women included, 234 had a diagnosis of atherosclerotic disease (ASCVD), 254 were diabetic (without ASCVD), 163 had an LDL ≥190 mg/dL, and 151 had a 10 year ASCVD pooled risk score ≥7.5%. Statins were used by 49.6% of women with CVD; 59.8% of women with diabetes without known ASCVD; 42.3% of women with an LDL ≥190 mg/dL; and 19.9% of women with an ASCVD risk ≥7.5%. Rates of statin use were 43.8% for women with ≥ two prior ASCVD events and 69.4% for women with ≥ one prior ASCVD event plus multiple high‐risk conditions. Among women eligible for statins, Black women had a significantly reduced adjusted odds of being on a statin (OR 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.36‐0.78) compared with White women.ConclusionsIn this cohort of multiethnic women, rates of statin use among women who would benefit were low, with Black women having lower odds of statin use than White women.     

Race and Ethnicity With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes Within a Universal Health Care System: Insights From the CARTaGENE Study

BackgroundIt remains unclear whether racial and ethnic disparities for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) persist within universal health care systems. We aimed to explore long-term ASCVD outcomes within a single-payer health care system with extensive drug coverage in Québec, Canada.MethodsCARTaGENE (CaG) is a population-based prospective cohort study of individuals aged 40 to 69 years. We included only participants without previous ASCVD. The primary composite endpoint was time to the first ASCVD event (cardiovascular death, acute coronary syndrome, ischemic stroke-transient ischemic attack, or peripheral arterial vascular event).ResultsThe study cohort included 18,880 participants followed for a median of 6.6 years (2009 to 2016). The mean age was 52 years, and 52.4% were female. After further adjustment for socioeconomic and cardiovascular factors, the increase in ASCVD risk for South Asians (SAs) was attenuated (hazard ratio [HR], 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75, 2.67), whereas Black participants’ risk was lower (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.29, 0.95) compared with White participants. After similar adjustments, there were no significant differences in ASCVD outcomes among the Middle Eastern, Hispanic, East-Southeast Asian, Indigenous, and mixed race-ethnicities participants and the White participants.ConclusionsAfter adjustment for CV risk factors, the risk of ASCVD was attenuated in the SA CaG participants. Intensive risk-factor modification may mitigate the ASCVD risk of the SAs. Within a universal health care context and comprehensive drug coverage, the ASCVD risk was lower among Black compared with White CaG participants. Future studies are needed to confirm whether universal and liberal access to health care and medications can reduce the rates of ASCVD among the Black population.     

Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Statin Use Among Adults with Metabolic Dysfunction Associated Fatty Liver Disease

BackgroundA leading cause of mortality in fatty liver disease is cardiovascular disease. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is new terminology that classifies fatty liver due to metabolic dysfunction attributable to obesity and associated complications. We evaluated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and statin use in adults with MAFLD.MethodsThis was a retrospective study of the 2011-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Adults with MAFLD were identified using established criteria: presence of hepatic steatosis (US Fatty Liver Index>30) plus ≥1 of the following: 1) body mass index >25 kg/m² in non-Asians or >23 kg/m² in Asians, 2) diabetes mellitus, and 3) ≥2 metabolic risk factors. Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the validated 10-year ASCVD risk score. Statin use was assessed in intermediate and high 10-year ASCVD risk groups.ResultsPrevalence of MAFLD was 34.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.9%-35.8%), comprising 54.4% males, 27.9% aged 65 years and older, and 38.2% non-Hispanic white. Among adults with MAFLD, 23.3% and 23.0% had intermediate and high 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Compared with females, males were more likely to have high 10-year ASCVD risk (28.7% vs 16.1%, adjusted odds ratio 5.24, 95% CI, 3.87-7.10, P < .01). In intermediate and high ASCVD risk groups, overall statin use was 48.3% (95% CI, 46.1-51.3).ConclusionsOver 46% of adults with MAFLD had intermediate or high 10-year ASCVD risk. Statin use was underutilized at 48.3% in those meeting statin criteria. These findings are alarming given the high cardiovascular disease risk and low statin use in this cohort.     

CAC for Risk Stratification Among Individuals With Hypertriglyceridemia Free of Clinical Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

ObjectivesIn this study, we sought to evaluate whether the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score can enhance current paradigms for risk stratification among individuals with hypertriglyceridemia in primary prevention. The eligibility criteria for icosapent ethyl (IPE) were used as case example.BackgroundRecent trials of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk-reduction therapies for individuals with hypertriglyceridemia without clinical ASCVD restricted enrollment to participants with diabetes or various other risk factors. These criteria were mirrored in the Food and Drug Administration product label for IPE.MethodsWe pooled 2,345 participants with triglycerides 150 to <500 mg/dL (or >178-<500 mg/dL if not on a statin) and without clinical ASCVD from MESA, CARDIA, the Dallas Heart Study, and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. We evaluated the incidence of ASCVD events overall, by IPE eligibility (as defined in the product label), and further stratified by CAC scores (0, >0-100, >100). The number needed to treat for 5 years (NNT₅) to prevent 1 event was estimated among IPE-eligible participants, assuming a 21.8% relative risk reduction with IPE. In exploratory analyses, the NNT₅ was also estimated among noneligible participants.ResultsThere was marked heterogeneity in CAC burden overall (45% CAC 0; 24% CAC >100) and across IPE eligibility strata. Overall, 17% of participants were eligible for IPE and 11.9% had ASCVD events within 5 years. Among participants eligible for IPE, 38% had CAC >100, and their event rates were markedly higher (15.9% vs 7.2%) and the NNT₅ 2.2-fold lower (29 vs 64) than those of the 25% eligible participants with CAC 0. Among the 83% participants not eligible for IPE, 20% had CAC >100, and their 5-year incidence of ASCVD (13.9%) was higher than the overall incidence among IPE-eligible participants.ConclusionsCAC can improve current risk stratification and therapy allocation paradigms among individuals with hypertriglyceridemia without clinical ASCVD. Future trials of risk-reduction therapies in hypertriglyceridemia could use CAC >100 to enroll a high-risk study sample, with implications for a larger target population.     

Incidence of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Young Adults at Low Short-Term But High Long-Term Risk

BackgroundYoung adults may have high long-term atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk despite low short-term risk.ObjectivesIn this study, we sought to compare the performance of short-term and long-term ASCVD risk prediction tools in young adults and evaluate ASCVD incidence associated with predicted short-term and long-term risk.MethodsWe included adults aged 18 to 39 years, from 2008 to 2009 in a U.S. integrated health care system, and followed them through 2019. We calculated 10-year and 30-year ASCVD predicted risk and assessed ASCVD incidence.ResultsAmong 414,260 young adults, 813 had an incident ASCVD event during a median of 4 years (maximum 11 years). Compared with 10-year predicted risk, 30-year predicted risk improved reclassification (net reclassification index: 16%) despite having similar discrimination (Harrell’s C: 0.749 vs 0.726). Overall, 1.0% and 2.2% of young adults were categorized as having elevated 10-year (≥7.5%) and elevated 30-year (≥20%) predicted risk, respectively, and 1.6% as having low 10-year (<7.5%) but elevated 30-year predicted risk. The ASCVD incidence rate per 1,000 person-years was 2.60 (95% CI: 1.92-3.52) for those with elevated 10-year predicted risk, 1.87 (95% CI: 1.42-2.46) for those with low 10-year but elevated 30-year predicted risk, and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.30-0.35) for those with low 10-year and 30-year predicted risk. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratio was 3.04 (95% CI: 2.25-4.10) comparing those with low 10-year but elevated 30-year predicted risk and those with low 10-year and 30-year predicted risk.ConclusionsLong-term ASCVD risk prediction tools further discriminate a subgroup of young adults with elevated observed risk despite low estimated short-term risk.     

Association of Low-Density Lipoprotein Testing After an Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Event with Subsequent Statin Adherence and Intensification

PurposeThis study aimed to evaluate associations between outpatient low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) testing and subsequent statin adherence and intensification in patients after an atherosclerotic cardiovascular (ASCVD) event.MethodsThis was a longitudinal study of adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitalized with an ASCVD event (myocardial infarction or stroke) during January 01, 2016, to December 31, 2017, with follow-up through December 31, 2019. Outcomes were statin adherence (estimated using continuous medication gap [CMG]) and intensification (defined by an increased dose or switch to a higher-intensity statin) based on pharmacy dispensing. The exposure of interest was first outpatient LDL-C test after an ASCVD event. Baseline for follow-up was LDL-C test date or a date assigned using incidence density sampling. Multivariate logistic regression models were specified to estimate the odds ratios for statin adherence or intensification among those with vs without an LDL-C test, with adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.ResultsThere were 19,604 adults hospitalized with ASCVD, including 7054 adults not on high-intensity statins. The mean age was 69.5 years and 33.0% were female. Prevalence of good adherence (continuous medication gap ≤20%) was significantly higher (80.2% vs 75.9%; odds ratio 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-1.49; P <.001) among participants who had an LDL-C test compared with participants who did not. LDL-C testing was associated with significantly higher rates of treatment intensification (16.1% vs 10.7%; odds ratio 1.51; 95% confidence interval,1.29-1.76; P <0.001).ConclusionsLow-density lipoprotein cholesterol testing is recommended for patients with a history of ASCVD and may be a high-value and low-cost intervention to improve adherence and statin management.     

Prediabetes is not an independent risk factor for incident heart failure,other cardiovascular events or mortality in older adults: Findings from a population-based cohort study

Background

Whether prediabetes is an independent risk factor for incident heart failure (HF) in non-diabetic older adults remains unclear.

Methods

Of the 4602 Cardiovascular Health Study participants, age ≥ 65 years, without baseline HF and diabetes, 2157 had prediabetes, defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) 100–125 mg/dL. Propensity scores for prediabetes, estimated for each of the 4602 participants, were used to assemble a cohort of 1421 pairs of individuals with and without prediabetes, balanced on 44 baseline characteristics.

Results

Participants had a mean age of 73 years, 57% were women, and 13% African American. Incident HF occurred in 18% and 20% of matched participants with and without prediabetes, respectively (hazard ratio {HR} associated with prediabetes, 0.90; 95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.76–1.07; p = 0.239). Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for incident HF associated with prediabetes among 4602 pre-match participants were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.07–1.40; p = 0.003) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.85–1.14; p = 0.826), respectively. Among matched individuals, prediabetes had no independent association with incident acute myocardial infarction (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.81–1.28; p = 0.875), angina pectoris (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.77–1.12; p = 0.451), stroke (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.70–1.06; p = 0.151) or all-cause mortality (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88–1.11; p = 0.840).

Conclusions

We found no evidence that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for incident HF, other cardiovascular events or mortality in community-dwelling older adults. These findings question the wisdom of routine screening for prediabetes in older adults and targeted interventions to prevent adverse outcomes in older adults with prediabetes.     

The effect of vitamin D supplementation on cardiovascular risk in patients with prediabetes: A secondary analysis of the D2d study

AimsLow blood 25(OH)D level is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Additionally, individuals with prediabetes are at higher risk for CVD than individuals with normoglycemia. We investigated the effects of vitamin D supplementation on CVD outcomes in the vitamin D and type 2 diabetes (D2d) study, a large trial among adults with prediabetes.Methods2423 participants were randomized to 4000 IU/day of vitamin D₃ or placebo and followed for median 3.0 years for new-onset diabetes. In pre-specified secondary analyses, we examined the effect of vitamin D supplementation on composite Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE); expanded MACE (MACE + revascularization); atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score; and individual CVD risk factors (blood pressure, lipids, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein). Cox models compared hazard ratios (HR) between the two groups on MACE and expanded MACE.ResultsMean age was 60 years, 45 % were women, 13 % had history of CVD. Twenty-one participants assigned to vitamin D and 12 participants assigned to placebo met the MACE outcome (HR 1.81, 95%CI 0.89 to 3.69). There were 27 expanded MACE outcomes in each group (HR 1.02, 95%CI, 0.59 to 1.76). There were no significant differences between vitamin D and placebo in individual CVD risk factors, but change in ASCVD risk score favored the vitamin D group (?0.45 %, 95%CI -0.75 to ?0.15).ConclusionsIn people with prediabetes not selected for vitamin D insufficiency and with intermediate CVD risk, vitamin D supplementation did not decrease MACE but had a small favorable effect on ASCVD risk score.Trial registration: D2d ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01942694, prospectively registered September 16, 2013.     

Novel approach to examining first cardiovascular events after hypertension onset

Hypertension confers risk for multiple types of cardiovascular events, but competing risks for these outcomes are unknown. We estimated the competing risks over 12 years after hypertension onset among cases and age-, sex-, and examination-matched controls using competing Cox cumulative incidence and proportional hazards models. We included all Framingham Heart Study subjects examined after 1977 with new-onset hypertension who were free of cardiovascular disease. There were 645 men and 702 women with new-onset hypertension (mean age: men, 55+/-12 years; women, 59+/-12 years). Compared with matched nonhypertensive controls, subjects with new-onset hypertension were more likely to experience a cardiovascular event first rather than noncardiovascular death. Among new-onset hypertensives, the 12-year competing cumulative incidence of any cardiovascular end point as a first event in men was 24.7%, compared with 9.8% for noncardiovascular death (hazards ratio [HR], 2.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.83 to 3.50); in women, the competing incidences were 16.0% versus 10.1%, respectively (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.20). The most common first major cardiovascular events were hard coronary disease (8.2%) in men and stroke (5.2%) in women. Type and incidence of first cardiovascular events varied by age and severity of hypertension at onset, with stroke predominating among older subjects with new-onset hypertension. After hypertension onset, cardiovascular events are more likely to occur first as opposed to noncardiovascular death. Types of initial events differ by gender, age, and severity of hypertension at onset. These results represent a novel approach to understanding the complications of hypertension and may help target therapies for patients with new-onset hypertension to optimize prevention strategies.     

Effects of a digital diabetes prevention program on cardiovascular risk among individuals with prediabetes

ObjectiveTo examine changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk outcomes of overweight/obese adults with prediabetes.MethodsUsing data from a randomized control trial of digital diabetes prevention program (d‐DPP) with 599 participants. We applied the atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk calculator to predict 10-year CVD risk for d‐DPP and small education (comparison) groups. Between-group risk changes at 4 and 12 months were compared using a repeated measures linear mixed-effect model. We examined within-group differences in proportion of participants over time for specific CVD risk factors using generalized estimating equations.ResultsWe found no differences between baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. Relative to the comparison group, the d‐DPP group experienced greater reductions in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk at each follow-up visit and a significant group difference at 4 months (−0.96%; 95% confidence interval: −1.58%, −0.34%) (but not at 12 months). Additionally, we observed that the d‐DPP group experienced a decreased proportion of individuals with hyperlipidemia (18% and 16% from baseline to 4 and 12 months), high-risk total cholesterol (8% from baseline to 12 months), and being insufficiently active (26% and 22% from baseline to 4 and 12 months at follow-up time points.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that a digitally adapted DPP may promote the prevention of cardiometabolic disease among overweight/obese individuals with prediabetes. However, given the lack of maintenance of effect on ASCVD risk at 12 months, there may also be a need for additional interventions to sustain the effect detected at 4 months.     

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: The Hisayama Study

Aim: To develop and validate a new risk prediction model for predicting the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Japanese adults. Methods: A total of 2,454 participants aged 40–84 years without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were prospectively followed up for 24 years. An incident ASCVD event was defined as the first occurrence of coronary heart disease or atherothrombotic brain infarction. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to construct the prediction model. In addition, a simplified scoring system was translated from the developed prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell’s C statistics, a calibration plot with the Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino test, and a bootstrap validation procedure. Results: During a median of a 24-year follow-up, 270 participants experienced the first ASCVD event. The predictors of the ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, proteinuria, smoking habits, and regular exercise. The developed models exhibited good discrimination with negligible evidence of overfitting (Harrell’s C statistics: 0.786 for the multivariable model and 0.789 for the simplified score) and good calibrations (the Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino test: P =0.29 for the multivariable model, 0.52 for the simplified score). Conclusion: We constructed a risk prediction model for the development of ASCVD in Japanese adults. This prediction model exhibits great potential as a tool for predicting the risk of ASCVD in clinical practice by enabling the identification of specific risk factors for ASCVD in individual patients.     

The "metabolic syndrome" is less useful than random plasma glucose to screen for glucose intolerance

AIMS: To compare the utility of metabolic syndrome (MetS) to random plasma glucose (RPG) in identifying people with diabetes or prediabetes. METHODS: RPG was measured and an OGTT was performed in 1155 adults. Test performance was measured by area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AROC). RESULTS: Diabetes was found in 5.1% and prediabetes in 20.0%. AROC for MetS with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was 0.80 to detect diabetes, and 0.76 for diabetes or prediabetes--similar to RPG alone (0.82 and 0.72). However, the AROC for MetS excluding fasting plasma glucose was lower: 0.69 for diabetes (p<0.01 vs. both RPG and MetS with FPG), and 0.69 for diabetes or prediabetes. AROCs for MetS with FPG and RPG were comparable and higher for recognizing diabetes in blacks vs. whites, and females vs. males. MetS with FPG was superior to RPG for identifying diabetes only in subjects with age <40 or BMI <25. CONCLUSIONS: MetS features can be used to identify risk of diabetes, but predictive usefulness is driven largely by FPG. Overall, to identify diabetes or prediabetes in blacks and whites with varying age and BMI, MetS is no better than RPG--a more convenient and less expensive test.     

The incidence of heart failure among nondiabetic patients with and without impaired fasting glucose

ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to elucidate the relationship between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), development of diabetes, and incident heart failure (HF) in a large, community sample of nondiabetic subjects.Research Design and MethodsFrom Kaiser Permanente Northwest medical records, we identified 10,113 subjects with an FPG level of 100–125 mg/dl in 1997 or 1998 who were free of diabetes and HF and matched them to an equal number of subjects with an FPG level of <100 mg/dl on sex and 5-year age groups. Subjects were followed until a new diagnosis of HF was entered into the medical record, death, termination of health plan membership, or December 31, 2005, whichever came first.ResultsAfter controlling for known HF risk factors, each 10 mg/dl increase in FPG was independently associated with an 8% increase in the risk of HF over a mean follow-up of 79 months [hazard ratio (HR)=1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.13, P=.003]. However, in a subsequent analysis that included only those HF cases that occurred prior to diabetes onset and censored follow-up at the time of diabetes development, FPG was not a significant predictor of HF risk (HR=1.01, 95% CI 0.96–1.07, P=.621). Age, male sex, body mass index, smoking, and cardiovascular disease were highly predictive of HF incidence.ConclusionsAlthough the risk of HF is increased among subjects with higher FPG, the increased risk is explained by greater likelihood of developing diabetes. Risk factors other than FPG are much stronger independent predictors of incident HF.     

老年高血压糖尿病前期患者心血管危险因素分析

目的调查老年高血压合并糖尿病前期患者心血管危险因素分布。方法收集年龄≥60岁、既往无糖尿病病史、且入院空腹血糖(FPG)<7.0mmol/L的高血压患者388例,以空腹血糖受损(IFG)诊断标准为FPG≥5.6mmol/L,分为A组260例(FPG<5.6mmol/L)、B组65例(5.6mmol/L≤FPG<6.1mmol/L)及C组63例(6.1mmol/L≤FPG<7mmol/L),比较3组各种心血管危险因素分布的差异。结果 338例患者中,IFG患病率33.0%。与A组比较,B组和C组高血压≥2级或高血压高危、左心室舒张功能障碍、颈动脉增厚比例等无明显变化(P>0.05)。结论尽管未发现IFG与其他心血管危险因素有关,但糖代谢异常在此类患者中的影响应予重视。     

The utility of fasting glucose for detection of prediabetes

Treatment of prediabetes attenuates progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus. The American Diabetes Association (ADA) previously defined prediabetes as either impaired fasting glucose (IFG) = 6.1 to 6.9 mmol/L (110-125 mg/dL) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour postload glucose of 7.8-11.0 mmol/L [140-199 mg/dL]). For practical reasons, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is commonly used for diabetes screening. Recently, the ADA lowered the fasting glucose threshold value for IFG from 110 to 100 mg/dL. Our objective was to determine the utility of FPG alone for detecting prediabetes in African Americans. Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) data from a cohort of 304 young adult African American men and women were examined. We calculated prediabetes prevalence using the previous ADA criteria and examined the effect of lowering the IFG threshold value for IFG to 100 mg/dL. The prediabetes prevalence in this cohort using the previous ADA criteria was 20.4% (n = 62). Of the 62 cases, 8 had IFG, 45 had IGT, and 9 had IFG together with IGT. Fasting plasma glucose testing alone detected 17 (27.4%) prediabetic cases, whereas a complete OGTT detected 54 (87.1%). Lowering the IFG threshold value to FPG = 100 mg/dL identified 13 of the 45 IGT-only cases. However, this lower IFG threshold increased prediabetes prevalence in the overall cohort from 20.4% to 31.9%. In conclusion, in young adult African Americans, an ethnic group at high risk for developing diabetes, FPG testing alone may be inadequate for diagnosing prediabetes. Until alternative strategies are identified, an OGTT is presently the best method for detecting the prediabetic condition in these high-risk patients.     

Abdominal obesity and incident cardio-metabolic disorders in Asian-Indians: A 10-years prospective cohort study

Background and aimsTo estimate the strength of association between abdominal obesity and incident cardio-metabolic diseases.MethodsA subset of Chandigarh Urban Diabetes study cohort (n = 543) was followed after a mean of 10.7 years for development of diabetes, prediabetes, dysglycaemia (either prediabetes or diabetes), hypertension and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Diabetes and prediabetes were defined as per American Diabetes Association consulting group criteria, hypertension as blood pressure of ≥140/90 mmHg and ASCVD after review of medical records. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference of ≥80 cm and ≥90 cm in females and males, respectively.ResultsAs compared to non-obese (n = 209), abdominally obese individuals (n = 334) had a higher risk of diabetes [RR:1.82(1.28–2.57)], prediabetes [RR:1.40(1.05–1.85)], dysglycaemia [ RR:1.38(1.07–1.78)], hypertension [RR: 1.84(1.30–2.59)] and ASCVD [RR:2.12(1.02–4.4)]. The optimal cut-off of waist circumference for detecting incident diabetes, hypertension and ASCVD in females was 88 cm, 85 cm and 91 cm, respectively; while in males it was 90 cm, 87 cm and 94 cm, respectively.ConclusionIn Asian-Indians, abdominal obesity as defined by waist circumference of ≥90 cm and ≥80 cm in males and females, respectively is associated with a twofold higher risk of diabetes, hypertension and ASCVD. In addition, the current-cut-offs of waist circumference to define abdominal obesity need reconsideration to optimally identify individuals at a higher risk of cardio-metabolic diseases. However, a high attrition rate represents a major limitation.