Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: The Hisayama Study

Aim: To develop and validate a new risk prediction model for predicting the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Japanese adults. Methods: A total of 2,454 participants aged 40–84 years without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were prospectively followed up for 24 years. An incident ASCVD event was defined as the first occurrence of coronary heart disease or atherothrombotic brain infarction. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to construct the prediction model. In addition, a simplified scoring system was translated from the developed prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell’s C statistics, a calibration plot with the Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino test, and a bootstrap validation procedure. Results: During a median of a 24-year follow-up, 270 participants experienced the first ASCVD event. The predictors of the ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, proteinuria, smoking habits, and regular exercise. The developed models exhibited good discrimination with negligible evidence of overfitting (Harrell’s C statistics: 0.786 for the multivariable model and 0.789 for the simplified score) and good calibrations (the Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino test: P =0.29 for the multivariable model, 0.52 for the simplified score). Conclusion: We constructed a risk prediction model for the development of ASCVD in Japanese adults. This prediction model exhibits great potential as a tool for predicting the risk of ASCVD in clinical practice by enabling the identification of specific risk factors for ASCVD in individual patients.     

Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring Model for Early Prediction of Severe Colon Ischemia

Digestive Diseases and Sciences - Colon ischemia (CI) is injury to the intestines secondary to insufficient blood flow. Its clinical severity can range from mild to life-threatening. To investigate...     

Maternal Preeclampsia and Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in Offspring

Variability is a phenomenon attributed to most biological processes and is a particular feature of blood pressure (BP) that concerns many physicians regarding the clinical meaning and the impact on their clinical practice. In this review, we assessed the role of different indices of BP variability in cardiovascular risk stratification. We reviewed the indices of BP variability derived from ambulatory BP monitoring (day-to-night ratio, morning surge of BP, and short-term BP variability) and home BP measurement (standardized conventional BP measurement and self-BP measurement), and summarized our recent results with the intention to provide a clear message for clinical practice. Conclusion: BP variability, either derived from ambulatory BP measurement or home BP measurement does not substantially refine cardiovascular risk prediction over and beyond the BP level. Practitioners should be aware that BP level remains the main modifiable risk factor derived from BP measurement and contributes to improving the control of hypertension and adverse health outcomes.     

Preeclampsia and Related Cardiovascular Risk: Common Genetic Background

Purpose of Review

Preeclampsia (PE) is a hypertensive disorder exclusive for pregnancy. It affects women all over the world and poses a great threat to life, both for mother and child. No definitive treatment exists and placenta delivery comprises the only known cure for PE. One of the most severe complications observed in preeclamptic women is the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) later in life.

Recent Findings

Both PE and CVDs share some of their pathogenic pathways and gene variations. Thus far, a number of publications have examined those relationships; however, almost all of them focus only on common risk factors. The precise pathomechanism and genetic basis of PE and its associated cardiovascular complications remain unknown.

Summary

Therefore, the aim of this review is to unify and clarify the current state of knowledge and provide direction for future studies, especially those regarding the genetic aspect.

     

External Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Ventricular Arrhythmias in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

The new 5-year ventricular arrhythmia (VA) occurrence risk model is a major breakthrough for arrhythmia risk stratification in the challenging population of patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). In the original study, the model resulted in a 20.6% reduction in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) placement compared with the 2015 consensus, for the same protection level. However, only internal validation was performed, limiting generalisation. We externally validated the model in a European tertiary care cohort of 128 patients with ARVC with restrictive indications for primary prevention ICD placement. Overall, 74% were men, none had VA history, and a single patient had an ICD at baseline. Median age at diagnosis was 38 years (interquartile range [IQR] 28-50). During a median follow-up of 7.8 years (IQR 6.1-9.7), 15 patients (12%) experienced VA. The model provided good discrimination, with a C-index for 5-year VA risk prediction of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.93). However, the model led to an overestimation of the 5-year VA risk when applying thresholds < 50%. With a < 10% predicted risk, no patient showed VA. With a 7.5% predicted risk, the ICD:VA ratio was 6.3 vs 3.4 in the original study. The model still outperformed the 2015 International Task Force Consensus. Overall, in a relatively large European ARVC cohort with restrictive indications for ICD placement, the ARVC model for VA prediction successfully identified ARVC patients with VA during follow-up. Yet, our study underscores the need for careful threshold selection, considering the model’s associated risk overestimation in low- to intermediate-risk patients.     

Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study,a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan

Aim: To construct a risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on the Suita study, an urban Japanese cohort study, and compare its accuracy against the Framingham CVD risk score (FRS) model.Methods: After excluding participants with missing data or those who lost to follow-up, this study consisted of 3,080 men and 3,470 women participants aged 30–79 years without CVD at baseline in 1989–1999. The main outcome of this study was incidence of CVD, defined as the incidence of stroke or coronary heart disease. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with stepwise selection were used to develop the prediction model. To assess model performance, concordance statistics (C-statistics) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a bootstrap procedure. A calibration test was also conducted.Results: During a median follow-up period of 16.9 years, 351 men and 241 women developed CVD. We formulated risk models with and without electrocardiogram (ECG) data that included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and urinary protein as risk factors. The C-statistics of the Suita CVD risk models with ECG data (0.782; 95% CI, 0.766–0.799) and without ECG data (0.781; 95% CI, 0.765–0.797) were significantly higher than that of the FRS model (0.768; 95% CI, 0.750–0.785).Conclusions: The Suita CVD risk model is feasible to use and improves predictability of the incidence of CVD relative to the FRS model in Japan.     

Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in High-Risk Populations: Epidemiology and Opportunities for Risk Reduction

Despite significant growth in the number of drug classes and individual agents available to combat various cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in clinical practice, the prevalence of these risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and obesity, has remained largely unchanged and in some cases has even increased during the past decade. CV risk factors remain consistently undertreated across the world, despite consensus guidelines issued by national and international health care organizations. Given the earlier onset of obesity and diabetes mellitus in many national populations, beginning from childhood, it is desirable to implement a range of lifestyle and pharmacologic interventions intended to modify CV risk factors while also improving glucose tolerance. Drugs that block the renin-angiotensin system are associated with reduced incidence of diabetes compared with other antihypertensive agents and should be considered mainstays of therapy for patients with hypertension who are at high risk for diabetes, CV disease, or both.