Prognostic performance of different lymph node classification systems in young gastric cancer

BackgroundAccurate staging plays a pivotal role in cancer care. The lymph node (LN) ratio (LNR) and the log odds of positive LNs (LODDS) have been suggested as alternatives to the N staging since the TNM system has the risk of stage migration. The prognostic significance of LNR and LODDS in young patients with gastric cancer (GC) has not been reported. This study aims to investigate the correlations between LNR and LODDS and survival of young patients with GC, and compare the predictive performance of these LN staging methods.MethodsGC patients before the age of 40 from 2004 to 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database were enrolled. The prognostic evaluation of the N factor, LNR and LODDS was compared using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, area under the curve (AUC), C-index and Akaike information criterion (AIC).ResultsMultivariate survival analysis identified that the LNR and LODDS were significantly independent prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS) in young patients with GC and in the subgroups comprised of patients with ≤15 LNs examined. The time-dependent ROC curves of the LNR and LODDS were continuously superior to that of the N factor in predicting OS during the observation period. And the AUCs revealed that the predictive accuracy of the LNR and LODDS was remarkably superior to the N factor at 1 and 3 years (P<0.05). The model incorporating LNR or LODDS had higher C-index and lower AIC when comparing to the model incorporating the N factor.ConclusionsThe LNR and LODDS improve accuracy of survival risk prediction in young patients with GC when comparing to the N factor. These two novel LN classification methods should be considered as alternatives to the N staging for the prognostic prediction of young patients with GC.     

Comparison of 4 lymph node staging systems for the prognostic prediction of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma with ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes

BackgroundDirectly applying the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system to evaluate the prognosis of patients with esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (AEG) might lead to under-staging, when insufficient lymph nodes were retrieved during surgery. The prognostic value of 4 lymph nodes staging systems, 8th AJCC TNM N stage, lymph node ratio (LNR), log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), and negative lymph nodes (NLN), in AEG patients having ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes were compared.Methods869 AEG patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2012 with ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess the association of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) with 8th AJCC TNM N stage, LNR, LODDS, and NLN respectively. Predictive survival ability was assessed and compared using linear trend χ2 score, likelihood ratio (LR) test, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Harrell concordance index (C-index), and Receiver Operative Curve (ROC).ResultsThe N stage, LNR, LODDS, and NLN were all independent prognostic predictors for CSS and OS in multivariate Cox models. Comparatively, LODDS demonstrated higher linear trend χ2 score, LR test score, C-index and integrated area under the curve (iAUC) value, and lower AIC in CSS compared to the other three systems. Moreover, for patients without regional lymph node metastasis, NLN showed higher C-index and lower AIC.ConclusionsLODDS showed better predictive performance than N, LNR, and NLN among patients with node-positive patients while NLN performed better in node-negative patients. A combination of LODDS and NLN has the potential to provide more prognostic information than the current AJCC TNM classification.     

Development and validation of prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

ObjectiveOur aims were to establish novel nomogram models, which directly targeted patients with signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC), for individualized prediction of overall survival (OS) rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS).MethodsWe selected 1,365 SRC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and then randomly partitioned them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Independent predicted indicators, which were identified by using univariate testing and multivariate analyses, were used to construct our prognostic nomogram models. Three methods, Harrell concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, were used to assess the ability of discrimination and predictive accuracy. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess clinical utility of our nomogram models.ResultsSix independent predicted indicators, age, race, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), T stage, M stage and tumor size, were associated with OS rate. Nevertheless, only five independent predicted indicators were associated with CSS except race. The developed nomograms based on those independent predicted factors showed reliable discrimination. C-index of our nomogram for OS and CSS was 0.760 and 0.763, which were higher than American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.734 and 0.741, respectively). C-index of validation cohort for OS was 0.757 and for CSS was 0.773. The calibration curves also performed good consistency. IDI, NRI and DCA showed the nomograms for both OS and CSS had a comparable clinical utility than the TNM staging system.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram models based on LODDS provided satisfying predictive ability of SRC both in OS and CSS than AJCC 8th edition TNM staging system alone.     

Comprehensive analysis of prognostic value of lymph node staging classifications in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma after cervical lymph node dissection

PurposeTo determine the optimal threshold of examined lymph node (ELN) number from cervical lymph node dissection for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Further to compare the prognostic value of multiple lymph node classification systems and to determine the most suitable scheme to predict survival.MethodsA total of 20991 HNSCC patients were included. Odds ratios (ORs) for negative-to-positive node stage migration and hazard ratios (HRs) for survival were fitted using the LOWESS smoother. Structural breakpoints were determined by the Chow test. The R square, C-index, likelihood ratio, and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare the prognostic abilities among AJCC N stage, number of positive lymph nodes (pN), positive lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) stages.ResultsA minimal threshold ELN number of fifteen had the discriminatory capacities for both stage migration and survival. LODDS stages had the highest R square value (0.208), C-index (0.736) and likelihood ratio (2467) and the smallest AIC value (65874). LODDS stages also showed prognostic value in estimating patients with AJCC N0 stage. A novel staging system was proposed and showed good prognostic performance when stratified by different primary sites.ConclusionFifteen lymph nodes should be examined for HNSCC patients. LODDS stage allows better prognostic stratification, especially in N0 stage. The proposed staging system may serve as precise evaluation tools to estimate postoperative prognoses.     

Development and validation of a new clinical staging system to predict survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: Application of the nomogram

IntroductionSurvival of patients with the same clinical stage varies widely and effective tools to evaluate the prognosis utilizing clinical staging information is lacking. This study aimed to develop a clinical nomogram for predicting survival of patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC).Materials and methodsOn the basis of data extracted from the SEER database (training cohort, n = 3375), we identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for nomogram development and internal validation. The model was then subjected to external validation with a separate dataset obtained from Jinling Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (validation cohort, n = 1187). The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and calibration curves. And risk group stratification was performed basing on the nomogram scores.ResultsOn multivariable analysis of the training cohort, seven independent prognostic factors were identified and included into the nomogram. Calibration curves presented good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. The AIC value of the nomogram was lower than that of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM (AJCC) staging system, whereas the C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the AJCC staging system. The risk groups stratified by CART allowed significant distinction between survival curves within respective clinical TNM categories.ConclusionsThe risk stratification system presented better discriminative ability for survival prediction than current clinical staging system and might help clinicians in decision making.     

Prognostic Nomogram for Overall Survival in Early Stage Extranodal Natural Killer/T Cell Lymphoma Treated With High-Dose Radiotherapy

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to develop a prognostic nomogram for early stage extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKL) treated with high-dose radiotherapy (RT).Patients and MethodsA total of 81 patients at 2 cancer centers with stage I to IIE ENKL who received chemotherapy (CT) and high-dose RT were retrospectively analyzed. The development of the nomogram was on the basis of the Cox proportional hazards model. We implemented the concordance index (C-index) and performed a calibration curve to determine its predictive and discriminatory capacity and compared our nomogram with the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and the Korean Prognostic Index (KPI).ResultsThe nomogram included 4 important variables and used a multivariate analysis: lactate dehydrogenase, primary tumor invasion, tumor response, and CT regimen. The 5-year OS rate and progression-free survival were 64.7% and 57.5%, respectively for the entire group. The C-index of the nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction was 0.87, and it was superior to the predictive power of the IPI and KPI. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram accurately predicted the 5-year OS.ConclusionThe proposed nomogram could provide an individualized risk estimate of the OS for early stage ENKL treated with CT and high-dose RT.     

A prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer liver metastases after percutaneous thermal ablation

Purpose: To assess the efficacy of percutaneous thermal ablation in treating colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRCLM), and to propose a prognostic nomogram for overall survival (OS).

Materials and methods: Seventy-one patients with CRCLM undergoing thermal ablation at our institute from 2009 to 2013 were identified and analysed to formulate a prognostic nomogram. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were calculated to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared with two current prognostic nomograms for patients with CRCLM who had undergone hepatectomy (Kattan) and selective internal radiation therapy (Fendler). Predictive validity was assessed in the validation cohort of 25 patients who had undergone thermal ablation from 2014 to 2016.

Results: The median OS in the primary cohort was 26.4?months, whereas the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 72.2%, 37.2% and 17%, respectively. The median progression-free survival was 4.2?months. After univariate and multivariate analysis, a prognostic nomogram was formulated based on four predictors, including the number of tumours, maximum diameter of the tumour, CA19–9 level and ablation margin. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.815. Based on the patients of this study, the C-index was significantly higher than that of the Fendler nomogram (C-index, 0.698) and Kattan nomogram (C-index, 0.514, p?Conclusions: Thermal ablation was an effective therapy for CRCLM. Moreover, the nomogram was effective and simple for CRCLM patients undergoing thermal ablation.     

Nomogram for Predicting the Overall Survival of Patients With Breast Cancer With Pathologic Nodal Status N3

BackgroundPatients with breast cancer with pathologic N3 (pN3) lymph node status have been proven to have a poor prognosis. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with pN3 breast cancer.Materials and MethodsThe eligible patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. χ² tests and survival curves were performed to define the consistency between these 2 cohorts. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were carried out to identify the independent clinicopathologic factors of patients with pN3 breast cancer. A nomogram was developed and validated internally and externally by a calibration curve and compared with the seventh edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging classification in discrimination ability.ResultsRace, age at diagnosis, marital status, grade, T stage, N stage, breast cancer subtype, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent predictive factors of OS in pN3 breast cancer. We developed a nomogram to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and further validated it in both cohorts, demonstrating better prediction capacity in OS than that of the seventh edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging classification (area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.745 and 0.611 in the training cohort and 0.768 and 0.624 in the validation cohort, respectively).ConclusionWe have developed and validated the first nomogram for predicting the survival of pN3 breast cancer. This nomogram accurately and reliably predicted the OS of patients with pN3 breast cancer. However, more prognostic factors need to be further explored to improve the nomogram.     

Prognosis prediction model for a special entity of gastric cancer,linitis plastica

BackgroundGastric linitis plastica (GLP) is characteristic by its poor prognosis and highly aggressive characteristics compared with other types of gastric cancer (GC). However, the guidelines have not yet been distinguished between GLP and non-GLP.MethodsA total of 342 eligible patients with GLP identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) dataset were randomly divided into training set (n=298) and validation set (n=153). A nomogram would be developed with the constructed predicting model based on the training cohort’s data, and the validation cohort would be used to validate the model. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to evaluate the differences between groups. Cox regression and LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) were used to construct the models. Calibration curve, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the predicting performance. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) was used to analyze the curative effect of adjuvant therapy.ResultsFor patients in training cohort, univariable and multivariable Cox analyses showed that age, examined lymph nodes (LN.E), positive lymph nodes (LN.P), lesion size, combined resection, and radiotherapy are independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), while chemotherapy can not meet the proportional hazards (PHs) assumption; age, race, lesion size, LN.E, LN.P, combined resection and marital status are independent prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS). The C-index of the nomogram was 0.678 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.660–0.696] and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.630–0.716) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. Meanwhile, the C-index of the CSS nomogram was 0.671 (95% CI, 0.653–0.699) and 0.650 (95% CI, 0.601–0.691) in the training and validation cohort for CSS, respectively. Furthermore, the nomogram was well calibrated with satisfactory consistency. RMST analysis further determined that chemotherapy and radiotherapy might be beneficial for improving 1- and 3-year OS and CSS, but not the 5-year CSS.ConclusionsWe developed nomograms to help predict individualized prognosis for GLP patients. The new model might help guide treatment strategies for patients with GLP.     

Adjuvant Radiation Field Extent and Sites of Failure in Node Positive Endometrioid Endometrial Cancer

PurposeIn patients with node-positive endometrial cancer, adjuvant radiation therapy with chemotherapy decreases local-regional recurrence compared with chemotherapy alone. However, the optimal radiation field borders and extent of nodal coverage have not been well studied. In a multi-institutional cohort, survival outcomes and sites of failure were analyzed for patients with International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage IIIC endometrioid endometrial cancer treated with pelvic radiation therapy (PRT) versus extended-field radiation therapy (EFRT), which encompassed high para-aortic lymph nodes.Methods and MaterialsIn a multi-institutional retrospective study, 143 patients with FIGO stage IIIC1 or IIIC2 endometrioid endometrial cancer treated with adjuvant radiation therapy from 2000 to 2016 were identified. Patient subgroups were classified by substage and radiation field extent: stage IIIC1 received EFRT, stage IIIC1 received PRT, and stage IIIC2 received EFRT. Recurrence-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and out-of-field recurrence were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Sites of failure were categorized as within or outside the radiation field.ResultsThe median follow-up was 59 months; 87% of patients received chemotherapy. The 5-year RFS and OS rates were 73% and 87%, respectively. By subgroup, 5-year RFS rates were 79% for stage IIIC1 EFRT, 73% for stage IIIC1 PRT, and 69% for stage IIIC2 EFRT (P = .4). On multivariate analysis, the recurrence risk was highest for stage IIIC2 EFRT, although this result was not statistically significant (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.0; P = .4). In-field vaginal and nodal recurrences were observed in 2 patients (1%) and 4 patients (3%), respectively. Of 78 patients with stage IIIC1 cancer treated with PRT, 5 (6%) had isolated para-aortic nodal relapse outside the radiation field; 3 were long-term survivors (more than 6 years after salvage therapy). For patients with para-aortic recurrence, 86% had lymphovascular invasion, 71% had myometrial invasion of ≥50%, and 57% had grade 3 disease.ConclusionsAdjuvant chemoradiation therapy resulted in excellent survival outcomes for patients with FIGO stage IIIC endometrioid endometrial cancer. For patients with positive pelvic nodes, isolated para-aortic relapse outside the PRT field was uncommon and amenable to salvage therapy.     

Development and validation of a novel classification scheme for combining pathological T stage and log odds of positive lymph nodes for colon cancer

AimLog Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes (LODDS) have a better predictive ability than N stage for colon cancer. However, the prognostic value of developing a novel prognostic classification by combining T stage and LODDS (TLODDS) for colon cancer remains unknown. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to develop a TLODDS classification for colon cancer, and assess whether or not the novel TLODDS classification could improve survival stratification by comparing its discrimination, model-fitting, and net benefits, with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor/Node/Metastasis (TNM) classification.Methods45,558 Western colon cancers were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database as a training set. A novel LODDS stage was established and patients with similar survival rates were grouped by combining T and LODDS stages to develop a novel TLODDS classification. The TLODDS classification was further assessed in a Chinese validation set of 3,515 colon cancers and an application set of 3,053 rectal cancers.ResultsWe developed a novel TLODDS classification that incorporated 7 stages: stage I (T1LODDS1), IIA (T2LODDS1, T1LODDS2, T1LODDS3), IIB (T2LODDS2-3, T3LODDS1, T1LODDS4), IIC (T3LODDS2, T2LODDS4, T4aLODDS1), IIIA (T3LODDS3, T1-2LODDS5, T4bLODDS1, T4aLODDS2), IIIB (T3LODDS4-5, T4aLODDS3-4, T4bLODDS2) and IIIC (T4bLODDS3-5, T4aLODDS5). In the training set, it showed significantly better discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, 0.691 vs. 0.664, P < 0.001), better model-fitting (Akaike information criteria, 265,644 vs. 267,410), and superior net benefits, than the latest AJCC TNM classification. The predictive performance of the TLODDS classification was further validated in colon cancers and was successfully applied in rectal cancers with regards to both overall and disease-free survival.ConclusionsThe TLODDS classification has better discriminatory ability, model-fitting, and net benefits than the existing TNM classification, and represents an alternative to the current TNM classifications for colon and rectal cancers.     

Nomogram predicted disease free survival for colorectal liver metastasis patients with preoperative chemotherapy followed by hepatic resection

BackgroundHepatic resection is regarded to as a potentially curative option for colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM), but it is associated with a high rate of recurrence. The present study intended to establish an effective nomogram to predict disease free survival (DFS) and select candidates of hepatic resection.MethodsThe nomogram was based on a retrospective study on 447 CRLM patients treated with preoperative chemotherapy followed by hepatic resection using a multicentric database between January 1st, 2010 and December 31st, 2017. Results were validated using bootstrap resampling on 117 patients. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. Overall survival, disease free survival, and local recurrence rate for patients with colorectal cancer were measured.ResultsBased on multivariate analysis of the primary cohort, independent factors for DFS included tumor size larger than 5 cm, multiple liver metastases(>1), RAS mutation, primary lymph node metastasis and tumor size increase after preoperative chemotherapy. These five factors were all considered in the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.675. With external validation, the C-index of the nomogram for the prediction of the DFS was 0.77, which demonstrated that this model has a good level of discriminative ability. For the 382 patients (66.7%) who developed recurrence, the optimal cutoff point for early recurrence was determined to be 12 months after hepatic resection.ConclusionsThe proposed nomogram demonstrated accurate prognostic prediction of DFS for CRLM patients with preoperative chemotherapy followed by hepatic resection.     

Development and External Validation of a Clinical Nomogram for Individually Predicting Survival of Metaplastic Breast Cancer

BackgroundFew studies have concerned the prognosis of metaplastic breast cancer (MpBC), a rare and diverse malignancy. A prognostic index estimating the MpBC survival would be attractive in clinical practice.Patients and MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed MpBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Prognostic factors were identified and the final nomogram was developed to predict the 1-, 3-, or 5-year overall survival (OS). Calibration curves were provided to internally validate the performance of the nomogram and discriminative ability was appraised by concordance index (C-index).ResultsA total of 1017 MpBC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were assigned into 3:1 as training set (n = 763) and SEER validation set (n = 254). An external validation was performed by an individual set of 94 MpBC patients from National Cancer Center in China from 2010 to 2018. The nomogram finally consisted of 7 independent prognostic factors and presented a good accuracy for predicting the OS with the C-index of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.751-0.786). Interestingly, the nomogram based on the western (including 92.5% non-Asian) SEER validation population (C-index of nomogram: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.737-0.796) also has an optimal discrimination in Asian population (C-index of nomogram: 0.70). The calibration plots of the nomogram predictions were also accurate and corresponded closely with the actual survival rates.ConclusionThis novel nomogram was accurate enough to predict the OS by using readily available clinicopathologic factors in MpBC general population, which could provide individualized recommendations for patients and clinical decisions for physicians.     

Topographic lymph node staging system shows prognostic superiority compared to the 8th edition of AJCC TNM in gastric cancer. A western monocentric experience

IntroductionThe current Tumor Node Metastasis staging system (TNM) for gastric cancer classifies the extent of lymph node metastasis based upon the number of lymph nodes involved. Choi et al. have recently proposed a new anatomical classification based upon the regionality of the involved nodes. This new classification seems to have a better predictive prognostic value than the traditional one. We investigated the prognostic role of the new anatomical based classification, reviewing our institutional gastric cancer database.MethodsWe performed a retrospective chart review of 329 patients who underwent gastrectomy at our Institution from 2003 to 2017. We excluded from data analysis any patient with distant metastases at the time of first diagnosis and or surgery, pathology other than adenocarcinoma, lymphadenectomy less than D2, impossibility to identify location of lymph nodes (LNs) on pathological report and neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The extent of D2 lymphadenectomy was defined according to Japanese Gastric Cancer Association criteria. LN metastasis were reclassified into three topographic groups (lesser, greater curvature, and extraperigastric nodes) and staged according to Choi. The new N stage was combined with the current pT according to the 8th edition of TNM and a new hybrid TNM stage was established. All patients were followed up until June 2019. The prognostic performance of the new stage and of the current anatomical numeric based system (TNM) was analyzed and assessed by the C-index, AIC and likelihood ratio χ² value.ResultsIn predicting both Overall Survival (OS) and Disease free Survival (DFS) the new N stage and the new TNM staging system had the highest C-index and likelihood ratio χ2 value and the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), showing a better accuracy and displaying a better prognostic performance.ConclusionsOur study is the first from the Western world to compare the new hybrid classification, based on the anatomical location of metastatic nodes, to the 8th of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system. Our findings on a small, monocentric sample suggest that hybrid topographic lymph node staging system is more accurate than TNM.     

Comprehensive lymphadenectomy and survival prediction in uterine serous cancer patients after surgery: A population-based analysis

ObjectiveEvidence on uterine serous cancer (USC) prognosis has been limited and inconclusive. We aim to explore the survival benefits of comprehensive lymphadenectomy in USC patients after surgery and develop a prognostic nomogram to predict survival.MethodsUSC patients who had undergone hysterectomy between 2010 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The relationship between the extent of lymphadenectomy and survival, including overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), was estimated with Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were utilized to determine the independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then developed, calibrated and internally validated.ResultsA total of 2853 patients were identified. K-M survival analysis revealed that patients with ≥12 pelvic lymph nodes (PLNs) removed had significantly better OS and CSS than those without (both P < 0.001). However, patients with ≥6 para-aortic lymph nodes removed was not associated with similar survival benefits than patients without (P > 0.1). Multivariate analyses for OS and CSS revealed that age, T-stage, N-stage, tumor size, adjuvant therapy and ≥12 PLNs removed were independent prognostic factors (all P < 0.05) and were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram. The Harrell's C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the FIGO staging system (OS: 0.739 vs 0.671, P < 0.001; CSS: 0.752 vs 0.695, P < 0.001). Furthermore, the nomogram was well calibrated with satisfactory consistency.ConclusionsComprehensive pelvic lymphadenectomy should be recommended to USC patients for its survival benefits. And a nomogram has been developed to predict the survivals of USC patients after surgery.     

Nomogram prediction for overall survival of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer

Background:Nomograms are predictive tools that are widely used for estimating cancer prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for the prediction of overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with cervical cancer.Methods:Cervical cancer databases of two large institutions were analysed. Overall survival was defined as the clinical endpoint and OS probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Based on the results of survival analyses and previous studies, relevant covariates were identified, a nomogram was constructed and validated using bootstrap cross-validation. Discrimination of the nomogram was quantified with the concordance probability.Results:In total, 528 consecutive patients with invasive cervical cancer, who had all nomogram variables available, were identified. Mean 5-year OS rates for patients with International Federation of Gynecologists and Obstetricians (FIGO) stage IA, IB, II, III, and IV were 99.0%, 88.6%, 65.8%, 58.7%, and 41.5%, respectively. Seventy-six cancer-related deaths were observed during the follow-up period. FIGO stage, tumour size, age, histologic subtype, lymph node ratio, and parametrial involvement were selected as nomogram covariates. The prognostic performance of the model exceeded that of FIGO stage alone and the model's estimated optimism-corrected concordance probability was 0.723, indicating accurate prediction of OS. We present the prediction model as nomogram and provide a web-based risk calculator (http://www.ccc.ac.at/gcu).Conclusion:Based on six easily available parameters, a novel statistical model to predict OS of patients diagnosed with cervical cancer was constructed and validated. The model was implemented in a nomogram and provides accurate prediction of individual patients' prognosis useful for patient counselling and deciding on follow-up strategies.     

基于SEER数据库构建1~2枚淋巴结阳性且乳房全切的老年早期乳腺癌患者不同腋窝手术方式的生存预测模型

背景与目的：指南推荐1~2枚前哨淋巴结阳性的保乳并计划行全乳放疗的T1-2期乳腺癌患者可以豁免腋窝淋巴结清扫。探讨1~2枚淋巴结阳性且乳房全切的老年早期乳腺癌患者的预后危险因素,并构建不同腋窝处理手术方式下的生存预测模型。方法：从SEER数据库收集2010—2015年期间65岁及以上、T 1-2 期、1~2枚淋巴结阳性且乳房全切的乳腺癌患者并随机分为验证集和训练集。对训练集进行单因素及多因素COX比例风险回归分析筛选出影响总生存的独立预后因素,利用R软件构建预测患者3年和5年总生存率的列线图,利用一致性指数（C指数）和校正曲线对预测模型进行内部（训练集）和外部（验证集）验证。结果：共纳入4 863例患者,中位随访42个月,训练集（3 647例）和验证集（1 216例）的基线分布符合简单随机分组。将多因素COX回归分析筛选出的年龄、种族、婚姻状态、组织学分级、分子分型、T分期、腋窝手术方式、是否放化疗共9个总生存的独立风险因素（P<0.05）用于构建列线图预测模型。训练集（即内部验证）和验证集（即外部验证）的C指数分别为0.710（95% CI：0.689~0.731）和0.728（95 % CI：0.691~0.765）,两组的校正曲线均靠近45°参考线,表明列线图具有良好的预测能力。结论：本研究构建的列线图预测模型具有良好的预测价值,有利于指导临床对患者进行个体化治疗。     

Does Prophylactic Paraortic Lymph Node Irradiation Improve Outcomes in Women With Stage IIIC1 Endometrial Carcinoma?

PurposeTo evaluate the impact of prophylactic paraortic lymph node (PALN) radiation therapy (RT) on clinical outcomes in patients with International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2018 stage IIIC1 endometrial cancer (EC).Methods and MaterialsA multi-institutional retrospective study included patients with International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2018 stage IIIC1 EC lymph node assessment, status postsurgical staging, followed by adjuvant chemotherapy and RT using various sequencing regimens. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariable and multivariable analysis were performed by Cox proportional hazard models for RFS/OS. In addition, propensity score matching was used to estimate the effect of the radiation field extent on survival outcomes.ResultsA total of 378 patients were included, with a median follow-up of 45.8 months. Pelvic RT was delivered to 286 patients, and 92 patients received pelvic and PALN RT. The estimated OS and RFS rates at 5 years for the entire cohort were 80% and 69%, respectively. There was no difference in the 5-year OS (77% vs 87%, P = .47) and RFS rates (67% vs 70%, P = .78) between patients treated with pelvic RT and those treated with pelvic and prophylactic PALN RT, respectively. After propensity score matching, the estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of prophylactic PALN RT versus pelvic RT were 1.50 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-3.19; P = .28) for OS and 1.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-2.42; P = .51) for RFS, suggesting that prophylactic PALN RT does not improve survival outcomes. Distant recurrence was the most common site of first recurrence, and the extent of RT field was not associated with the site of first recurrence (P = .79).ConclusionsProphylactic PALN RT was not significantly associated with improved survival outcomes in stage IIIC1 EC. Distant metastasis remains the most common site of failure despite routine use of systemic chemotherapy. New therapeutic approaches are necessary to optimize the outcomes for women with stage IIIC1 EC.     

A novel prognostic nomogram based on microvascular invasion and hematological biomarkers to predict survival outcome for hepatocellular carcinoma patients

PurposeThis study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction in which combine clinical characteristics and hematological biomarkers in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of 807 HCC patients. All the clinical data of these patients were collected through electronic medical record (EMR). The independent predictive variables were identified by cox regression analysis. We tested the accuracy of the nomograms by discrimination and calibration, and then plotted decision curves to assess the benefits of nomogram-assisted decisions in a clinical context, and compared with the TNM staging systems and microvascular invasion (MVI) on HCC prognosis.ResultsThe primary cohort consisted of 545 patients with clinicopathologically diagnosed with HCC from 2008 to 2013, while 262 patients from 2014 to 2016 in external validation cohort. Variables included in the nomograms were TNM Stage, microvascular invasion (MVI), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and prothrombin time (PT). The C-index of nomogram was 0.768, which was superior than the C-index of TNM Stage (0.660, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.664, P < 0.001) alone in the primary cohort. In the validation cohort, the models had a C-index of 0.845, and were also statistically higher when compared to C-index values for TNM Stage (0.687, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.684, P < 0.001). Calibration curves showed adequate calibration of predicted and reported OS prediction throughout the range of HCC outcomes. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful than the TNM Stage and MVI alone. Moreover, patients were divided into three distinct risk groups for OS by the nomogram: low risk group, middle risk group and a high risk group, respectively.ConclusionThe nomogram presents more accurate and useful prognostic power, which could be used to predict OS for patients with HCC.     

Lymphadenectomy increases the prognostic value of the revised 2009 FIGO staging system for endometrial cancer: A multi-center study

Background

We investigated whether pelvic or para-aortic lymphadenectomy increases the prognostic value of the revised 2009 FIGO staging system in patients with endometrial cancer (EC).

Methods

We reviewed 786 patients with EC from six tertiary medical centers between July 1996 and June 2008. All patients were classified according to the 1988 FIGO staging system: IA (n = 234); IB (n = 270); IC (n = 109); IIA (n = 35); IIB (n = 29); IIIA (n = 37); IIIB (n = 3); IIIC (n = 69), and the revised 2009 FIGO staging system was also applied to divide them: IA (=542); IB (=125); II (n = 29); IIIA (n = 18); IIIB (n = 3); IIIC1 (n = 43); IIIC2 (n = 26). Prognostic values between the 1988 and the revised 2009 FIGO staging systems were compared by multivariate Cox’s proportional hazard analysis.

Results

The 1988 FIGO stage IC, IIB, IIIA + IIIB and IIIC, and the revised 2009 FIGO stage IB, II, IIIA + IIIB and IIIC2 diseases were prognostic factors for poor PFS, whereas the 1988 FIGO stage IIB and IIIC, and the revised 2009 FIGO stage II, IIIA + IIIB and IIIC2 diseases were unfavorable prognostic factors for OS. Although these results were similar to those in 595 patients who underwent pelvic or para-aortic lymphadenectomy, the revised 2009 FIGO stage IIIC1 disease was an additional prognostic factor for poor PFS and OS (adjusted HRs, 4.19 and 11.25; 95% CIs, 1.39–12.60 and 2.23–36.74).

Conclusions

The revised 2009 FIGO staging system had a higher prognostic value than the 1988 FIGO staging system, and pelvic or para-aortic lymphadenectomy increased the prognostic value of the revised 2009 FIGO staging system for EC.