Disproportionality at the "front end" of the child welfare services system: an analysis of rates of referrals, "hits", "misses", and "false alarms"

Data from NIS-4, NCANDS, and the State of California were used to analyze the front end of the child welfare services system--the referral and substantiation components--in terms of the system's ability to diagnose or detect instances of child maltreatment. The analyses show that Blacks are disproportionately represented in rates of referral into the system. Moreover, the analyses demonstrate that the system is less accurate for Blacks than for other racial or ethnic groups. There is a higher rate of false positives (or "false alarms") for Blacks than for other groups--that is, referrals leading to unsubstantiated findings. There is also a higher rate of false negatives (or "misses") for Blacks than for other groups--that is, children for whom no referral was made but who are in fact neglected or abused. The rate of true positives (or "hits")--children for whom a referral has been made and for whom that allegation has been substantiated--is generally higher for Blacks than for other groups, but this is attributable largely to the higher rate of referral for Blacks. In sum, the system demonstrates lower levels of accuracy for Blacks than for other groups. A model is proposed demonstrating that random error, as opposed to systematic bias, could produce a pattern of results much like that observed in the data.     

我国尘肺病防治发展历程与展望

对我国尘肺病防治的发展历程进行了系统总结，重点回顾了我国建立的尘肺病防治法规体系、尘肺病以预防为主的策略和措施，以及开展的尘肺病治疗科技攻关实践，对我国在尘肺病防治方面开展的卓有成效的工作进行了展示。同时通过对客观数据的分析，反映我国目前尘肺病防治形势依然非常严峻，任重而道远。结合国家发布的《尘肺病防治攻坚行动方案》，展望我国尘肺病防治今后的工作和前景，认为通过全国统一行动，以及全社会的共同努力，一定会从根本上预防和减少新发尘肺病病人，实现全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标。     

Modelling disease progression in terms of exposure history.

We consider the relationship between accumulating exposure to a putative agent and the associated change in physiologic function. This type of problem is common to prospective studies of cognitive, pulmonary and cardiovascular function. A general model is proposed for data from prospective, observational studies with concurrent measures of exposures and continuous outcome measures. This model permits non-linearity in the relationship between exposure and outcome and is designed to describe outcome in terms of one's entire exposure history. As exposure data are often severely right-skewed, we use regression spline estimation methods which localize the influence of extreme points. We illustrate our methodology using data from a longitudinal epidemiologic investigation of the effects of amateur boxing on neuropsychologic function.     

执行《中华人民共和国尘肺病防治条例》回顾与对策

1987年12月3日,国务院发布了《中华人民共和国尘肺病防治条例》(以下简称《条例》),标志着我国劳动卫生职业病防治工作开始从行政管理走向法制管理。十余年来,我市在贯彻执行《条例》、加强尘肺病监管及执法队伍建设、开展尘肺流行病学调查研究等方面做了大量工作。同时,就执行《条例》中面临的问题进行剖析,提出了一些对策。1 依法建立和完善尘肺病监督执法管理体系1.1 地方法规的制定 十年间先后制定了《广东省劳动安全卫     

Accidents and acts of God: a history of the terms.

Despite criticism from safety professionals, scientists continue to use the word accident, meaning an unexpected, unintended injury, or event. Some argue for its use based on tradition, but "traditional" arguments appear to be invalid given our examination of the history of the word and its companion phrase act of God in statistics, law, and religion. People who were interested in public health recognized in the 1600s that unintended injuries were neither random nor unexpected. Legal scholars in the 1800s saw the word was useless for technical purposes. The word does not appear in the Bible until the mid 1900s and then only in a para-phrased edition. Others have maintained that the meaning of accident is well understood, even though it has not been perfectly defined. We maintain that without a clear definition, people substitute an image, which may be distorted or damaging.