Weight adjustment of serum markers in early first-trimester prenatal screening for Down syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether existing weight correction formulas for PAPP-A and free-beta-hCG developed for weeks 11 to 14 can be applied to pregnancies in weeks 8 to 10. METHODS: Development of formulas based on limited data sets of 8- to 10-week pregnancies and comparison with existing formulas. Calculation of median MoMs adjusted with different formulas for weight correction. RESULTS: Weight correction formulas for the gestational age of 11 to 14 weeks were not appropriate in the 8- to 10-week gestational age interval for PAPP-A, whereas existing weight correction formulas could be applied to free-beta-hCG, independent of gestational age interval. CONCLUSION: If PAPP-A is used in different gestational age intervals, weight corrections should be developed for the interval.     

False-negative results in routine combined first-trimester screening for down syndrome in Finland

We analyzed the frequency and possible causes of false-negative (Fn) screening results in first-trimester combined Down syndrome screening in Finland. During the study period (May 1, 2002, to December 31, 2008), 76,949 voluntary women with singleton pregnancies participated in screening. Maternal age at screening, week of gestation, levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (fβ-hCG), and nuchal translucency (NT) measurement were compared and statistically analyzed between true-positive (Tp) and Fn cases. There were a total of 188 Down syndrome cases (1:409) in the screened population; 154 confirmed Tp and 34 Fn cases. Most Fn cases (n = 25) occurred at 12 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation and only nine Fn cases presented between 10 and 11 weeks' gestation. According to the logistic regression analysis, the NT measurement was the most powerful discriminating factor in Fn screening results and accounted for 37.2% of Fn results. The second most important factor was fβ-hCG, adding 14.0% to R(2), followed by PAPP-A, which contributed a further 14.3%. The chosen parameters explain 83.9% of Fn results, but 16.1% remain due to unknown factor(s). All investigated parameters contributed to Fn screening results, but fetal NT was the most discriminating factor leading to an Fn screening result.     

ADAM 12 as a first-trimester maternal serum marker in screening for Down syndrome

BACKGROUND: A Disintegrin And Metalloprotease 12 (ADAM 12) is a glycoprotein synthesised by placenta and it has been shown to be a potential first-trimester maternal serum marker for Down syndrome (DS) in two small series. Here we analyse further, the potential of ADAM 12 as a marker for DS in a large collection of first-trimester serum samples. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The concentration of ADAM 12 was determined in 10-14-week pregnancy sera from 218 DS pregnancies and 389 gestational age-matched control pregnancies, which had been collected as part of routine prospective first-trimester screening programs (DS = 105) or as part of previous research studies (DS = 113). ADAM 12 was measured using a semi-automated time resolved immunofluorometric assay and median values for normal pregnancies were established by polynomial regression. These medians were then used to determine population distribution parameters for DS and normal pregnancy groups. Correlation with previously established PAPP-A and free beta-hCG multiple of the medians (MoMs) and delta nuchal translucency (NT) were determined and used to model the performance of first-trimester screening with ADAM 12 in combination with other first-trimester markers at various time periods across the first trimester. The benefits of a contingent testing model incorporating early measurement of PAPP-A and ADAM 12 were also explored. RESULTS: The maternal serum concentration of ADAM 12 was significantly reduced (p = 0.0049) with an overall median MoM of 0.79 in the DS cases and a log(10) MoM SD of 0.3734 in the DS cases and 0.3353 in the controls. There was a significant correlation of ADAM 12 MoM in DS cases with gestational age (r = 0.375) and the median MoM increased from 0.50 at 10-11 weeks to 1.38 at 13 weeks. ADAM 12 was correlated with maternal weight (r(controls) = 0.283), PAPP-A (r(controls) = 0.324, r(DS) = 0.251) but less so with free beta-hCG (r(controls) = 0.062, r(DS) = 0.049) and delta NT (r(controls) = 0.110, r(DS) = 0.151). ADAM 12 was significantly (p = 0.026) lower in smokers (0.87 vs 1.00) and elevated in Afro-Caribbean women compared to Caucasian women (1.34 vs 1.00).Population modelling using parameters from this and an earlier study showed that a combination of ADAM 12 and PAPP-A measured at 8-9 weeks and combined with NT and free beta-hCG measured at 12 weeks could achieve a detection rate of 97% at a 5% false-positive rate or 89% at a 1% false-positive rate. PAPP-A and ADAM 12 alone at 8-9 weeks could identify 91% of cases at a 5% false-positive rate. Using this as part of a contingent-screening model to select an intermediate risk group of women for NT and free beta-hCG at 11-12 weeks would enable the detection of 92% of cases with a 1% false-positive rate at a cost of providing NT and free beta-hCG for 6% of women with 94% of women having completed screening by the 10th week of pregnancy. CONCLUSION: ADAM 12 in early first trimester is a very efficient marker of DS. In combination with existing markers, it offers enhanced screening efficiency in a two-stage sequential first-trimester screening program or in a contingent-screening model, which may have benefits in health economies where universal access to high quality ultrasound is difficult. More data on early first-trimester cases with DS are required to establish more secure population parameters by which to assess further the validity of these models.     

Combined first-trimester versus second-trimester serum screening for Down syndrome: a cost analysis

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of combined first-trimester screening for fetal Down syndrome with second-trimester maternal serum triple screening. STUDY DESIGN: A first-trimester screening approach that used nuchal translucency measurement and maternal serum screening was evaluated against second-trimester maternal serum triple screening in a hypothetic population. Screening sensitivities and screen-positive rates were 91% and 5% for the first-trimester approach and 70% and 7.5% for the second-trimester approach, respectively. The costs of fetal Down syndrome, live-born Down syndrome cost, and total costs (screening plus live-born costs) were calculated for each screening program. RESULTS: First-trimester screening was associated with lower screening and live-born Down syndrome costs versus second-trimester serum screening. Total Down syndrome screening costs were 29.1% lower with first-trimester screening. CONCLUSION: In this hypothetic model, combined first-trimester screening for fetal Down syndrome was more cost-effective than universal second-trimester triple serum screening.     

Maternal serum screening for down syndrome in pregnancies conceived by intra-uterine insemination

The purpose of our study was to assess the influence of intra-uterine insemination (IUI) on the results of maternal serum Down syndrome screening. 43 women with IUI pregnancies and 4507 healthy women who conceived were studied. Ovulation in IUI pregnancies was induced by clomiphene and/or human menopausal gonadotrophin (hMG). Maternal serum levels of free beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were measured for Down syndrome screening. It was considered screen-positive when the risk of Down syndrome was 1 in 270 or greater in the second trimester. The value of maternal serum AFP was significantly lower in the IUI group (median=0.760 MoM) than in the control group (median=1.050 MoM). However, the value of free beta-hCG was not significantly different between the two groups. The positive rate of maternal serum Down syndrome in IUI pregnancies was similar to that of the control group. Our results indicate that IUI pregnancy may be associated with a lower level of AFP, although the mechanism for this difference remains unknown.     

妊娠早期超声多指标筛查胎儿染色体异常的临床价值

目的 探讨妊娠早期超声多指标筛查胎儿染色体异常的临床价值.方法 对2008年9月至2010年9月在暨南大学附属第一医院产科就诊的2789例妊娠早期(11～13+6周)单胎初产孕妇超声测量胎儿颈项透明层(nuchal translucency,NT)厚度,记录胎心率(fetal heart rate,FHR)、面部角度(facial angle,FA)、静脉导管(ductus venosus,DV)、三尖瓣反流(tricuspid reverse,TR)、胎儿鼻骨(nasal bone,NB)等超声指标,观察胎儿结构.全部超声指标检查结果输入Astraia风险筛查软件计算染色体异常风险值(＞1/300为高风险截断值),根据知情同意原则对高风险者取绒毛或羊水进行染色体核型产前诊断.所有研究对象随访至分娩后6个月.率的比较用x2检验或Fisher精确概率法.结果 (1) 2789例孕妇筛查出21三体高风险107例,其中96例接受侵入性产前诊断,诊断染色体异常16例,染色体异常发生率为0.6％(16/2789),其中6例21-三体.2789例孕妇中,超声筛查21-三体高风险孕妇4例,最终确诊21-三体6例,假阳性率为3.6％ (101/2783).(2) NT≥2.5 mm者196例,21-三体高风险66例,均经绒毛穿刺诊断,发现染色体异常16例;有创性检查率2.3％(66/2789).(3)≥35岁孕妇占筛查总数的6.7％(186/2789),其中检出21三体高风险32例,占21-三体高风险总数的29.9％ (32/107);诊断21-三体2例,21-三体检出率为1.1％(2/186);年龄＜35岁者21-三体检出率为0.2％(4/2597);年龄≥35岁和年龄＜35岁人群中胎儿21-三体检出率差异无统计学意义(P=0.055).(4)筛查过程诊断胎儿结构异常13例,其中5例染色体核型异常.结论 妊娠早期超声多指标筛查将明显提高染色体异常胎儿检出率并降低假阳性和假阴性率,大大降低有创性检查率.尤其对高龄孕妇的染色体异常风险评估更有明显的指导意义.妊娠早期超声筛查不仅可以有效检出核型异常,同时可以诊断严重的胎儿结构异常.     

Early vaginal bleeding and first-trimester markers for Down syndrome

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of early vaginal bleeding on first-trimester markers for Down syndrome. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 2330 normal singleton fetuses who underwent first-trimester combined screening for Down syndrome based on ultrasound and maternal serum markers. Fetal nuchal translucency (NT), maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), free beta-hCG and the false-positive rate of the test were compared between pregnancies with (n = 253) and without (n = 2077) a history of early vaginal bleeding. RESULTS: The mean +/- SD log(10) MoM for NT, PAPP-A and free beta-hCG was -0.024 +/- 0.101, 0.007 +/- 0.244, 0.047 +/- 0.273 and -0.011 +/- 0.108, -0.006 +/- 0.223, 0.008 +/- 0.264 in pregnancies with and without a history of early vaginal bleeding, with a p value of 0.07, 0.40 and 0.03 respectively. The false-positive rate was 2.4% and 3.6% (p = 0.33). CONCLUSIONS: An earlier episode of vaginal bleeding is associated with an increase in maternal serum free beta-hCG levels at first-trimester combined screening for Down syndrome. However, this phenomenon is unlikely to significantly affect the false-positive rate of the test.     

Appropriate biochemical parameters in first-trimester screening for Down syndrome.

Meta-analysis was used to calculate maternal serum marker distribution parameters for Down syndrome risk estimation in the first trimester. Data from 44 series were combined: relating to pregnancy associated plasma protein (PAPP)-A in 18, free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) in 17, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in 26 and unconjugated oestriol (uE3) in 9. All levels were expressed in multiples of the normal median (MOM) for gestational age. Individual PAPP-A levels were available for 439 first and second-trimester Down syndrome pregnancies. The median MOM value increased with gestation: 0.35 at 6-8 weeks (31 cases), 0.40 at 9-11 weeks (197), 0.62 at 12-14 weeks (113) and 0.94 thereafter (98). A cubic regression equation was fitted so it could be estimated for each week of gestation. For the other markers the median value in Down syndrome was estimated from the weighted mean across all first-trimester series: 1.98 MOM for free beta-hCG in 579 cases; 0.79 MOM for AFP in 243 and 0.74 MOM for uE3 in 226. Variance-covariance matrices were calculated directly in unaffected pregnancies and from the difference between affected and unaffected pregnancies in Down syndrome. Based on these parameters we estimate that screening at 9-11 weeks with PAPP-A and free beta-hCG will yield a 64.6 per cent detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate. Adding a third marker will increase detection to 66.6 per cent for AFP and 68.6 per cent for uE3; using all four markers it increases to 70.1 per cent. Routine ultrasound nuchal translucency measurement in addition to serum testing will increase the rates to 86.4 per cent, 87.2 per cent, 87.9 per cent and 88.3 per cent, respectively.     

Nuchal translucency and first trimester biochemical markers for down syndrome screening: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis that compared the first- and second- trimester screening tools for Down syndrome. STUDY DESIGN: A decision tree was designed that compared four possible screens for Down syndrome: (1) current second- trimester expanded maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein test (AFP), (2) first-trimester nuchal translucency screen, (3) first-trimester serum screen, and (4) combined first-trimester screen with both nuchal translucency screen and a serum screen. Incremental cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated that compared the first-trimester screens with expanded alpha-fetoprotein. RESULTS: The combined screen (nuchal translucency screen + first-trimester serum screen) identified 3,833 Down syndrome fetuses, the nuchal translucency alone identified 3,413 Down syndrome fetuses, and the first- trimester serum screen identified 2,993 Down syndrome fetuses. Each of these screens was an improvement over the current expanded AFP screen, which diagnosed 2,446 Down syndrome fetuses. It would cost $98,381 for each additional Down syndrome case that would be identified by nuchal translucency alone, with a benefit-to-cost ratio of 4.85. The addition of the first-trimester serum screen is still cost-effective compared with expanded AFP; the cost would be $319,934 for each additional Down syndrome fetus who was identified, which would be a benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.57. CONCLUSION: First-trimester screening for Down syndrome with nuchal translucency screening alone or with serum markers is more clinically effective and cost-effective than the current expanded AFP screen that is being used.     

Chinese weight-correction model for maternal serum markers in Down syndrome prenatal screening.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best weight-correction model by means of analyzing the relationship between maternal weight and maternal serum markers when screening for Down syndrome in China. METHODS: Serum levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) were measured in 35,917 Chinese women during the second semester of a normal singleton pregnancy and converted to multiple of median (MoM) values. Using 2 methods of statistical analysis, the all-point method and the median regression method, 4 weight-correction models were then tried, the simple linear, reciprocal, quadratic, and log-linear regression models. RESULTS: The median regression method performed better than the all-point method, and the quadratic regression model showed the best fit for both AFP and hCG in the median regression method, with adjusted R(2)s of 0.987 and 0.988, respectively. CONCLUSION: The quadratic regression model was found to be the most suitable for Chinese pregnant women.     

Predicting the result of additional second-trimester markers from a woman's first-trimester marker profile: a new concept in Down syndrome screening

OBJECTIVE: To describe a method for deciding whether an individual's first-trimester Down syndrome screening test result justifies further testing in the second trimester. METHODS: Statistical modelling was used to estimate the distribution of second-trimester marker profiles for a given first-trimester profile and hence the probability of a final positive result, using a 1 in 250 term cut-off. A multi-variate log Gaussian model was used with published parameters. Markers were maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and free beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) at 10 weeks, nuchal translucency at 11 weeks, and second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, total hCG, unconjugated estriol and inhibin-A. To illustrate the method, the model was applied to a published series of 24 Down syndrome and 367 unaffected pregnancies. RESULTS: Modelling predicts that for 63% Down syndrome and 0.4% unaffected pregnancies having first-trimester tests, there is a 50% or more probability of a final positive result. A step-wise sequential screening policy based on immediate prenatal diagnosis for those with high probability and second-trimester testing for the remainder would have a 90% detection rate and 1.7% false-positive rate. Modelling also predicts 8.0% Down syndrome and 89% unaffected pregnancies with probabilities below 3%. A contingent screening policy restricting second-trimester testing to those with 3-49% probabilities would have an 88% detection rate and 1.4% false-positive rate. CONCLUSION: Predicting the probability of a positive final result from the first-trimester marker profile has potential utility, either as a decision aide for individual women or as a formal part of screening policy in selecting a subset of women for second-trimester testing.     

Accuracy of Down syndrome risks produced in a first-trimester screening programme incorporating fetal nuchal translucency thickness and maternal serum biochemistry

Over the past three years approximately 12 000 women have been screened in the first trimester through our OSCAR programme, which utilizes fetal NT and maternal serum free beta-hCG and PAPP-A. During this time 30 cases of Down syndrome were identified either prenatally or postnatally. Using an established procedure the accuracy of predicted risk for Down syndrome was assessed in a population of 30 cases of Down syndrome and 11 758 unaffected pregnancies. The correlation between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome was very high (r=0.9995). It is concluded that risks produced by the Fetal Medicine Foundation combined risk algorithm agree very closely with Down syndrome prevalence and can be used with confidence when counselling women of their risk.     

Combining nuchal translucency and serum markers in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies

A method is described to combine the ultrasound marker nuchal translucency (NT) with serum markers so that they can be used together in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies. For monochorionic twin pregnancies (taken as monozygous), the two fetus-specific NT measurements are averaged before risk is calculated and before the contribution of the serum markers is incorporated. For dichorionic twin pregnancies (taken as dizygous), the risk for each fetus based on the individual NT measurements is calculated, the two fetus-specific risks are added together, and then the contribution of the serum markers is incorporated. In this way, all the screening markers can be used in combination to produce a pregnancy-specific "pseudo-risk", rather than a fetus-specific pseudo-risk. We refer to pseudo-risk because in the absence of sufficient data on the screening markers in affected twin pregnancies, a true risk estimate cannot be calculated. Tentative estimates are given of screening performance in twins using NT, the combined test (NT with first-trimester serum markers), and the integrated test (NT with first- and second-trimester serum markers), all interpreted with maternal age.