Development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict the carcinogenic potency of chemicals I. Alternative toxicity measures as an estimator of carcinogenic potency

Determining the carcinogenicity and carcinogenic potency of new chemicals is both a labor-intensive and time-consuming process. In order to expedite the screening process, there is a need to identify alternative toxicity measures that may be used as surrogates for carcinogenic potency. Alternative toxicity measures for carcinogenic potency currently being used in the literature include lethal dose (dose that kills 50% of a study population [LD(50)]), lowest-observed-adverse-effect-level (LOAEL) and maximum tolerated dose (MTD). The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between tumor dose (TD(50)) and three alternative toxicity measures as an estimator of carcinogenic potency. A second aim of this study was to develop a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) between TD(50) and estimated/experimental predictor variables to predict the carcinogenic potency of new chemicals. Rat TD(50)s of 590 structurally diverse chemicals were obtained from the Cancer Potency Database, and the three alternative toxicity measures considered in this study were estimated using TOPKAT, a toxicity estimation software. Though poor correlations were obtained between carcinogenic potency and the three alternative toxicity (both experimental and TOPKAT) measures for the CPDB chemicals, a CART developed using experimental data with no missing values as predictor variables provided reasonable estimates of TD(50) for nine chemicals that were part of an external validation set. However, if experimental values for the three alternative measures, mutagenicity and logP are not available in the literature, then either the CART developed using missing experimental values or estimated values may be used for making a prediction.     

Development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict the carcinogenic potency of chemicals. II. Using oral slope factor as a measure of carcinogenic potency

The overall risk associated with exposure to a chemical is determined by combining quantitative estimates of exposure to the chemical with their known health effects. For chemicals that cause carcinogenicity, oral slope factors (OSFs) and inhalation unit risks are used to quantitatively estimate the carcinogenic potency or the risk associated with exposure to the chemical by oral or inhalation route, respectively. Frequently, there is a lack of animal or human studies in the literature to determine OSFs. This study aims to circumvent this problem by developing quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict the OSFs of chemicals. The OSFs of 70 chemicals based on male/female human, rat, and mouse bioassay data were obtained from the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. A global QSAR model that considered all 70 chemicals as well as species and/or sex-specific QSARs were developed in this study. Study results indicate that the species and sex-specific QSARs (r(2)>0.8, q(2)>0.7) had a better predictive abilities than the global QSAR developed using data from all species and sexes (r(2)=0.77, q(2)=0.73). The QSARs developed in this study were externally validated, and demonstrated reasonable predictive abilities.