Coronary computed tomographic angiography derived findings and risk score improves the allocation of lipid lowering therapy compared to clinical score

The initiation of therapy for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASVCD) is currently guided by cohort-based risk scores. Coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) offers more personalised risk assessments to optimise therapy allocation. This study investigates the utility of CCTA determined coronary stenosis (both obstructive and non-obstructive plaque) to guide allocation of lipid lowering therapy. A retrospective analysis of 450 patients with CCTA performed for the assessment of chest pain at a single centre was conducted. Baseline characteristics, investigations, treatments and clinical outcomes were recorded. The allocation of lipid lowering therapy was evaluated with three models, cohort-based risk score (pooled cohort equation), a previously validated CCTA based clinical risk score (pooled cohort equation and CCTA findings) and CCTA alone (without clinical characteristics). The reclassification analysis included 266 patients. Compared to the cohort-based risk score, CCTA based clinical risk score in total reassigned 23% of patients. CCTA alone compared to the CCTA based clinical risk score correctly reassigned 23% and incorrectly reassigned 10%. When comparing the performance of CCTA alone against the cohort-based risk score, both the additive NRI of 25.8 (95% CI 4.12–37.56) and absolute NRI of 13.2 (95% CI 5.88–19.77) was significant. Revascularisation was required in 3% with a low cohort-based risk, but no patients with low risk as per CCTA alone or CCTA based clinical risk score required revascularisation The use of a CCTA based clinical risk score or CCTA alone compared to cohort-based risk scores can improve the allocation of lipid lowering therapy.     

Impact of clinical and morphological variables in classification and regression tree-based survival (CART) analysis of CML with special emphasis on dynamic features

Abstract: To determine parameters of predictive value in CML, a retrospective clinico-pathological study was performed. This included laboratory data and (pretreatment) bone marrow biopsies of 120 patients with a monotherapy by busulfan (BU) and 50 patients with interferon-alpha 2b (IFN)treatment. Median survival in the BU group was 39 months and in the IFN-treated patients 65 months. Morphological features (CD61-positive megakaryocytes, argyrophilic fibres, pseudo-Gaucher cells) were evaluated by morphometry. Additionally, we measured the incidence of apoptosis (in situ end-labelling technique) and the expression of the proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA). The ratio between the proliferative and apoptotic cell fraction was coined leukaemia turnover index (LTI). In order to estimate the impact of clinical and various morphological as well as dynamic features of prognostic significance, a multivariate analysis was carried out using the classification and regression tree approach (CART). Discrimination of single disease parameters revealed that fibrosis remained the most significant variable for survival in both therapeutic groups. Indicators of myeloid metaplasia such as occurrence of erythro-normoblasts and/or splenomegaly were important clinical parameters for prognosis. Inclusion of morphological as well as dynamic disease features in risk classification resulted in a substantial improvement of prognostic efficiency compared to other predictive scores which could be demonstrated by means of ROC-analysis.     

Propensity score matching analysis of the impact of Syntax score and Syntax score II on new onset atrial fibrillation development in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction

Background

New‐onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is a common complication in the setting of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and worsened short/long‐term prognosis. Several clinical parameters have already been associated with NOAF development. However, relationship between NOAF and coronary artery disease (CAD) severity in STEMI patients is unclear. This study evaluates the relationship between NOAF and CAD severity using Syntax score (SS) and Syntax score II (SSII) in STEMI patients who were treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI).

Method

We enrolled 1,565 consecutive STEMI patients who were treated with pPCI. Patients with NOAF were compared to patients without NOAF in the entire study population and in a matched population defined by propensity score matching.

Results

Patients with NOAF had significantly higher SS and SSII than those without, both in the matched population (18.6 ± 4 vs 16.75 ± 3.6; p < .001 and 42 ± 13.4 vs 35.1 ± 13.1; p < .001, respectively), and in all study population (18.6 ± 4 vs 16.5 ± 4.6; p < .001 and 42 ± 13.3 vs 31.5 ± 11.9; p < .001 respectively). SSII, compared to its components, was the only independent predictor of NOAF (OR: 1,041 95% CI: 1.015–1.068; p = .002). In the long‐term follow‐up, all‐cause long‐term mortality was significantly higher in patients with NOAF than those without NOAF (23.3% vs. 11%; p = .032).

Conclusion

This is the first study to comprehensively examine the relationship between NOAF development and CAD severity using SS and SSII. We demonstrated that, in STEMI patients, high SSII was significantly related to NOAF and was an independent predictor of NOAF. Furthermore, patients with NOAF were associated with poor prognosis.

     

Strong predictive value of TIMI risk score analysis for in-hospital and long-term survival of patients with right ventricular infarction.

BACKGROUND: While right ventricular myocardial infarction is associated with increased in-hospital morbidity and mortality, prognostic risk factors for in-hospital and long-term mortality are poorly defined. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic value of TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) risk score analysis in patients with right ventricular myocardial infarction (RVI). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a community population. SETTING: Mayo Clinic Coronary Care Unit. PATIENTS: One hundred and two patients with RVI from 580 consecutive patients from Rochester, Minnesota admitted to the Coronary Care Unit with acute inferior or lateral wall myocardial infarction from January 1988 through March 1998. MEASUREMENT: Combined TIMI risk score analysis with in-hospital and long-term mortality. RESULTS: In-hospital morbidity (RVI: 54.9% vs non-RVI: 22.2%; P<0.001) and mortality (RVI: 21.6% vs non-RVI: 6.9%;P <0.001) were increased in patients with RVI. The TIMI risk score predicted risk (per one point increase in TIMI score) for in-hospital mortality (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02-1.51, P=0.037) and long-term mortality (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.25-1.96, P<0.001). Patients with RVI whose TIMI risk score was >or=4 had significantly worse long-term survival compared to those patients with RVI and TIMI score <4 (P=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital morbidity and mortality, and long-term mortality are increased by right ventricular infarction and can be accurately predicted by the initial TIMI risk score.     

Comparative assessment of the HAS-BLED score with other published bleeding risk scoring schemes,for intracranial haemorrhage risk in a non-atrial fibrillation population: The Chin-Shan Community Cohort Study

Background

The HAS-BLED score is a validated bleeding risk model for predicting major bleeding events in anticoagulated individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF). It remains uncertain whether the HAS-BLED score could identify non-AF individuals at risk of developing intracranial haemorrhage (ICH), which is the most intractable and devastating major bleeding complication.

Methods

We assessed the predictive value of a modified HAS-BLED and other bleeding risk scoring models to predict the risk for ICH in the Chin-Shan Community Cohort, which followed 1899 women and 1703 men, aged > 35 years, for a median of 15.9 years. ICH events (including haemorrhagic strokes) were ascertained according to questionnaires and the national register database.

Results

Of 3524 individuals without baseline AF, 54 ICH events occurred during follow-up. The risk for ICH was raised with increasing HAS-BLED scores, and was significantly associated with uncontrolled hypertension and older age (Odds Ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)], 4.2[2.3–7.6] and 1.9[1.1–3.4], respectively). Among the five bleeding risk scoring schemes tested, HAS-BLED had highest general discrimination performance (c-statistic [95% CI], 0.72 [0.67–0.78]), and better ability to discriminate between those who were at risk for ICH and who were not (NRI, net reclassification improvement, all p < 0.05, compared to other four scoring schemes).

Conclusion

The HAS-BLED score had the highest general discrimination performance and best ability to discriminate risk for ICH. This score may be of clinical use in predicting the risk for occurrence of ICH among non-AF individuals.     

Assessment of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: impact of the new EULAR recommendations on the score cardiovascular risk index

To assess the impact of the application of the European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk of a series of Spanish patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Two hundred consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of Bellvitge Hospital, Barcelona, were studied. Information on clinical features of the disease, classic CV risk factors, and history of CV events was assessed. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) CV risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) according to the last EULAR recommendations were calculated. Based on the classic CV risk factors, the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.1 ± 2.3% (median, 2; interquartile range [IQR], 1–3). Twenty-three (11%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population (≥5%). Following the EULAR recommendations, a change in the score was required in 119 (59%) patients. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 2.7 ± 2.9% (median, 2; IQR, 1–3) and, due to this, 28 (14%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk. Nine (5%) had at least one ischemic CV event. Patients with CV events were older and had more CV risk factors and higher SCORE and mSCORE than those without CV events. Although a large proportion of patients from this series fulfilled the criteria for the application of the EULAR recommendations, the final impact on the calculated CV risk was low and clinically significant in only a few patients. However, an association between the mSCORE and the presence of ischemic CV events was observed.     

Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in men

Background

Colorectal cancer is a common and preventable disease for which screening rates remain unacceptably low.

Methods

We developed a risk scoring system for the development of colorectal cancer among participants in the Physician’s Health Study, a prospective cohort of 21,581 US male physicians who were all free of cancer. Predictors of colorectal cancer were self-reported and identified from the baseline questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of incident colorectal cancer over the follow-up period. Risk scores were created from the sum of the odds ratios of the final predictors and used to divide the cohort into categories of increasing relative risk.

Results

During 20 years of follow-up, 381 cases of colon cancer and 104 cases of rectal cancer developed in the cohort. Age, alcohol use, smoking status, and body mass index were independent significant predictors of colorectal cancer. The point scores were used to define 10 risk groups. Those in the highest risk group (9-10 points) had an odds ratio of 15.29 (6.19-37.81) for colorectal cancer compared with those with the lowest risk. We further stratified scores into 3 risk classes. Compared with those at the lowest relative risk, the odds ratio for colorectal cancer was 3.07 (2.46-3.83) in the intermediate risk group and 5.75 (4.44-7.44) in the highest risk group.

Conclusions

We developed a simple scoring system for colorectal cancer that identifies men at increased relative risk on the basis of age and modifiable factors. This tool should be validated in other populations.     

China-PAR模型与Framingham危险评分对中国绝经后女性健康体检人群心血管疾病风险评估的比较研究

目的:比较美国Framingham危险评分(FRS)和中国动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病风险预测模型(China-PAR)对中国绝经后女性健康体检人群10年心血管疾病(CVD)发病风险评估的差异,以期找到可更加准确地评估该人群10年CVD发病风险的方法.方法:回顾性选取进行健康体检的绝经后女性4100例,对所有研究对象进行问...     

Prognostic evaluation in multiple myeloma: an analysis of the impact of new prognostic factors

We have analysed the prognostic information for survival of presenting features in an unselected series of 394 myeloma patients. 15 variables with significant prognostic information were identified, among these were some not previously or only recently reported: serum levels of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of collagen I (ICTP) and soluble interleukin-6 receptor (sIL-6R). In a multivariate Cox analysis six variables were significantly and independently associated with poor survival: high age, low W.H.O.-performance status (PS), high serum levels of calcium, beta-2-microglobulin (beta-2M), IL-6 and sIL-6R. A risk score formed to predict survival for each percentile of the patient population allowed an efficient separation of prognostic groups. The discriminating power of the model compared favourably with three other previously published staging systems applied to the study population. Exclusion of IL-6 and sIL-6R from the model only marginally decreased the efficacy of the separation. The predictive value of some variables (sIL-6R, beta-2M and W.H.O.-PS) decreased significantly over time. We conclude that formation of a risk score based on independent variables is an efficient way to separate prognostic groups, that the contribution of new and not easily available parameters should be thoroughly evaluated before inclusion in prognostic models for clinical use and that the predictive value of parameters may decrease over time.     

Effect of centre volume and high donor risk index on liver allograft survival

BackgroundA growth in the utilization of high-risk allografts is reflective of a critical national shortage and the increasing waiting list mortality. Using risk-adjusted models, the aim of the present study was to determine whether a volume–outcome relationship existed among liver transplants at high risk for allograft failure.MethodsFrom 2002 to 2008, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database for all adult deceased donor liver transplants (n= 31 587) was queried. Transplant centres (n= 102) were categorized by volume into tertiles: low (LVC; 31 cases/year), medium (MVC: 64 cases/year) and high (HVC: 102 cases/year). Donor risk comparison groups were stratified by quartiles of the Donor Risk Index (DRI) spectrum: low risk (DRI ≤ 1.63), moderate risk (1.64 > DRI > 1.90), high risk (1.91 > DRI > 2.26) and very high risk (DRI ≥ 2.27).ResultsHVC more frequently used higher-risk livers (median DRI: LVC: 1.82, MVC: 1.90, HVC: 1.97; P < 0.0001) and achieved better risk adjusted allograft survival outcomes compared with LVC (HR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.85–0.95). For high and very high risk groups, transplantation at a HVC did contribute to improved graft survival [high risk: hazard ratio (HR): 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76–0.96; Very High Risk: HR: 0.88, 95%CI: 0.78–0.99].ConclusionWhile DRI remains an important aspect of allograft survival prediction models, liver transplantation at a HVC appears to result in improved allograft survival with high and very high risk DRI organs compared with LVC.     

心血管病高危与非高危人群的生存质量比较:倾向评分匹配分析

目的探究心血管病高危与非高危人群生存质量差异。方法采用2015-2017年国家心血管病高危人群早期筛查与综合干预项目江苏省项目点调查数据,对调查对象进行问卷调查和体格检查,运用倾向评分匹配分析(PSM)方法,按照1∶1匹配心血管病高危组与非高危组间性别和年龄,采用多重线性回归模型分析心血管病高危对生存质量[欧洲五维度健康量表(EQ-5D)]得分及其中的直观相似尺度(EQ-VAS)评分的影响。结果调查对象40 243(高危组20 839,非高危组19 404)人,倾向评分匹配后得到调查对象31 605(高危组15 948,非高危组15 657)人,EQ-5D指数得分0.97±0.07,EQ-VAS评分79.83±9.36,高危组行动能力、自理能力、日常生活能力和疼痛/不适报告有困难率高于非高危组(1.9%比1.0%、0.6%比0.3%、1.5%比0.8%、16.8%比15.7%,均P<0.05);高危组与非高危组焦虑/不适报告有困难率差异无统计学意义(4.5%比4.4%,P=0.785);女性、高龄、不在婚、初中及以下学历、不吸烟、不饮酒、肥胖、患有高血压、患有血脂异常的调查对象EQ-5D指数得分和EQ-VAS评分低于不在此状态或不患有此疾病人群(P<0.05),家庭年收入≤5万元、患有糖尿病的调查对象EQ-VAS评分低于不在此状态或不患有此疾病人群(P<0.001);多因素线性回归分析显示,调整基本情况和主要慢性病情况后,高危组EQ-VAS评分降低(β=-0.054, 95 CI-1.264^-0.766,P<0.001)。结论高危组人群的EQ-VAS评分低,应关注心血管病高危人群的生存质量。     

The impact of interferon versus busulfan therapy on the reticulin stain-measured fibrosis in CML — A comparative morphometric study on sequential trephine biopsies

To evaluate treatment-related changes of the reticulin stain-measured fibrosis in Ph¹⁺-CML, a clinicopathological study was performed on sequential trephine biopsies of the bone marrow following either interferon (IFN) or busulfan (BU) monotherapy. Using the monoclonal antibody CD61 for the identification of megakaryopoiesis and Gomori's silver impregnation method, number of megakaryocytes and density of argyrophilic (reticulin and collagen) fibers were determined by morphometry. We studied specimens from 26 patients with IFN-alpha 2b (including nine patients with additional IFN gamma) therapy and from 23 patients who had received BU. In both groups, repeated bone marrow biopsies (total 125) revealed a significant increase in the fiber content, as well as in the number of megakaryocytes during treatment. To assess the dynamics of myelofibrosis more precisely, computation of differences in the degree of fiber density between the first and last examination was carried out. Regarding the considerable variations in the biopsy intervals, a so-called myelofibrosis progression index (MPI) was calculated. Following this rationale, we were able to demonstrate that, in comparison to the BU-group, speed of progression of bone marrow fibrosis was significantly increased in CML patients treated with IFN. Preliminary statistical analysis indicated a relationship between myelofibrosis on admission, which was always associated with increased growth of megakaryocytes, and the MPI with survival. Even when these parameters were regarded, prognosis was significantly more favorable in the IFN-treated patients. The failure of IFN and BU to inhibit the evolution of myelofibrosis may be related to several conversely acting pathomechanisms. Among others, the inability of both therapeutic agents to reduce the number of megakaryocytes more effectively should be taken into consideration.Supported by a grant from theDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG — Th 390/1-3)     

Impact of geriatric nutritional risk index on prognosis in peripheral artery disease patients undergoing endovascular therapy

The prevalence of peripheral artery disease continues to rise, with major amputations and mortality remaining prominent. Frailty is a significant risk factor for adverse outcomes in the management of the vascular disease. The geriatric nutritional risk index has been used to predict adverse outcomes in lower extremity peripheral artery disease and is a nutrition-based surrogate for frailty. The authors recruited 126 patients with peripheral artery disease who underwent endovascular stent implantation. As in previous reports, malnutrition was diagnosed by the geriatric nutritional risk index. The authors used Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to analyze the risk of major adverse limb events, which included mortality, major amputation, and target limb revascularization. There were 67 major adverse limb events during a median follow-up of 480 days. Malnutrition on the basis of the geriatric nutritional risk index was present in 31% of patients. Cox regression analysis showed that malnutrition based on the geriatric nutritional risk index was an independent predictor of major adverse limb events. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that major adverse limb events increased with worsening malnutrition. Our single-center, retrospective evaluation of geriatric nutritional risk index (as a synonym for body health) correlates with an increased risk of major adverse limb events. Future directions should focus not only on identifying these patients but also on modifying risk factors to optimize long-term outcomes.