Determination of the relative probability for prostate cancer to avoid unnecessary biopsy

BACKGROUND: To investigate whether using a new concept of relative probability for prostate cancer (RPpca) can increase sensitivity and specificity in detecting prostate cancer. METHODS: For 217 patients with total prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of 4-20 ng/mL, prostate volume and free to total PSA (F/T) ratio were measured. From the fitted curves between positive predictive values for prostate cancer and age, prostate volume, total PSA or the F/T ratio, each function predicting prostate cancer was determined. RPpca defined by the combined functions of age, prostate volume, total PSA and F/T ratio was calculated for each individual patient. The probability of prostate cancer was also calculated, using logistic regression analysis (LRPpca). Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed to elucidate the areas under the curve (AUC), sensitivities and specificities and cutoff values of the conventional and new parameters. Finally, we investigated the applicability of the above parameters in the other patient group using a different PSA assay kit (AxSYM). RESULTS: Although RPpca had the largest AUC in the total PSA range of 4-20 ng/mL, it did not reach statistical significance between RPpca and F/T ratio or LRPpca. The cutoff values of F/T ratio, LRPpca and RPpca were determined as 0.15, 0.12 and 0.20, respectively. Using these cutoff values in AxSYM data, RPpca had the highest sensitivity (91%) and specificity (57%). CONCLUSIONS: RPpca can provide more precise information to avoid unnecessary biopsy than LRPpca or F/T ratio. RPpca could be valuable to decide whether to perform prostate biopsy when using various PSA kits.     

Value of prostate specific antigen α1-antichymotrypsin complex for the detection of prostate cancer in patients with a PSA level of 4.1–10.0ng/mL: Comparison with PSA-related parameters

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the usefulness of prostate specific antigen alpha1-antichymotrypsin complex (PSA-ACT) in the differential diagnosis of prostate cancer in patients with a PSA level of 4.1-10.0 ng/mL compared to several PSA- and PSA-ACT-related parameters. METHODS: Serum samples were obtained from 103 patients with no evidence of malignancy on biopsy and 29 with histologically confirmed prostate cancer. All patients had pretreatment serum PSA levels between 4.0 and 10.0 ng/mL. The different forms of serum PSA, including total PSA (tPSA), free PSA (fPSA) and PSA-ACT were measured using immunofluorometric techniques with different monoclonal antibodies against PSA and ACT. Furthermore, tPSA and PSA-ACT densities of the whole prostate (PSAD and ACTD, respectively) and the f-to-tPSA and the f-to-PSA-ACT ratios (F/T ratio and F/ACT ratio, respectively) were calculated. RESULTS: The differences between patients with prostate cancer and benign prostatic disease were significant with respect to all six parameters examined in this study. Analysis of receiver operating characteristics revealed that the areas under the curve for PSA-ACT, ACTD and the F/ACT ratio were larger than those for tPSA, PSAD and the F/T ratio, respectively. However, there were no significant differences in discrimination between benign and malignant diseases among these six parameters. CONCLUSIONS: In patients who have an intermediate serum PSA level, PSA-ACT and its associated parameters may not be significantly superior in the differential diagnosis between prostate cancer and benign prostatic diseases compared to tPSA and its traditional relatives.     

Measurement of serum zinc improves prostate cancer detection efficiency in patients with PSA levels between 4 ng/mL and 10 ng/mL

Aim： To investigate whether the measurement of serum zinc may improve the detection of prostate cancer （PCa） in men who had total prostate-specific antigen （PSA） levels higher than 4.1 ng/mL. Methods： A mass screening for PCa of 3940 men over 50 years old was undertaken using total serum PSA. Of the 190 men （4.8 %） with elevated PSA, 143 （3.6 %） underwent a transrectal ultrasonography （TRUS）-guided biopsy of the prostate, and 42 men （1% of total and 29.3 % of men undergoing biopsy） were found to have cancer. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves （ROC-AUC） were used to compare the diagnostic power of cancer detection by means of serum zinc, and free PSA/total PSA ratio （fit）. Results： The men with levels of serum zinc that ranged from 40 ng/mL-60 ng/mL, had an age-adjusted odds ratios（OR） of 5.0. A cutoff value of 100 gg/mL for-serum zinc concentration provided a sensitivity of 90.5 % and a specificity of 32.7 % in elevated PSA range, and a sensitivity of 93.3 % and specificity of 27.1% in gray zone, respectively. In the gray zone ranges of 4.1 ng/mL-10.0 ng/mL, the ROC-AUC for zinc was 73.0 % higher than 62.7 % of f/t PSA ratio and 56.7 % of total PSA. Conclusion： PCa displays a lower serum zinc concentration. The measurement of zinc levels improves PCa detection in the gray zone compared with the f/t PSA ratio and total PSA. （Asian J Androl 2005 Sep; 7： 323-328）     

Characterizing prostatic adenocarcinomas in men with a serum prostate specific antigen level of < 4.0 ng/mL

OBJECTIVE: To characterize prostate cancer in men undergoing radical prostatectomy who have a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of < 4.0 ng/mL, hypothesizing that a low PSA is not caused by diminished tumour production of PSA, nor does it signify clinically insignificant disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Seventy-nine men (mean age 59.3 years, range 43-77) with a PSA level of < 4.0 ng/mL were identified from 702 who had a radical prostatectomy between 1994 and 2000. Demographic and clinical data were analysed; pathological specimens were evaluated by routine haematoxylin and eosin staining and immunohistochemistry with anti-PSA antibody, for both pathological staging and grading, and for the presence of PSA production. Tumours were classified as 'clinically insignificant' if the tumour volume was < 0.5 mL and the Gleason score < 7. RESULTS: The mean (SD, range) preoperative PSA level was 3.04 (0.85, 0.8-3.8) ng/mL Indications for biopsy included an abnormal digital rectal examination (61%), a PSA velocity of > 0.75 ng/mL/year (12%), a strong family history of prostate cancer (3%), obstructive urinary symptoms (2%), or no obvious indication (23%). Thirty-eight (48%) tumours were clinically insignificant. Of 41 clinically significant cancers, 13 had a final Gleason score of > or = 7, 20 had extraprostatic extension and 11 had a tumour volume of > or = 10 mL Of the 79 prostate cancer specimens 78 stained strongly for PSA; the exception was a Gleason 9 tumour. With a mean (range) follow-up of 3.5 (0.18-6) years only one patient had a biochemical recurrence (PSA > or = 0.1 ng/mL). CONCLUSIONS: Most prostate cancers in men with a PSA level of < 4.0 ng/mL are clinically significant and PSA-producing. Many of these tumours are high-grade, high-volume and extraprostatic. We are currently exploring factors to explain why serum PSA is not elevated in these men, including tumour location, pattern of invasion and microvessel density.     

Complexed prostate specific antigen (PSA) reduces unnecessary prostate biopsies in the 2.6-4.0 ng/mL range of total PSA

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of complexed prostate-specific antigen (cPSA) to total PSA (tPSA) and percentage free PSA (f/tPSA) in the diagnosis of prostate cancer for the tPSA range 2.6-4.0 ng/mL. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive men scheduled for prostate biopsy were enrolled prospectively at 14 different sites in two multicentre studies in Europe and the USA. Serum obtained before biopsy was tested with the ACS:180 and Immuno 1 tPSA and cPSA assays (Bayer Diagnostics, Tarrytown, NY, USA) and the Access fPSA and tPSA assays (Beckman, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were generated to compare the diagnostic performance of tPSA, cPSA and f/tPSA. RESULTS: Of 316 men with a tPSA of 2.6-4.0 ng/mL, 82 (26%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer on biopsy. ROC analysis of all 316 men showed an area under the curve (AUC) for cPSA of 0.63, significantly greater than the AUC for tPSA of 0.56 (P = 0.008). At a sensitivity of 95%, threshold values of 2.3 ng/mL for cPSA and 2.73 ng/mL for tPSA provided specificities of 20.1% and 9.8%, respectively. f/tPSA was only available for 205 of the 316 (65%) men and the AUC for cPSA was 0.63, and did not significantly differ from the f/tPSA AUC of 0.64 (P = 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: As a single test, cPSA provides improved specificity over tPSA and comparable specificity to f/tPSA for detecting prostate cancer, and may reduce the number of unnecessary prostate biopsies in the 2.6-4.0 ng/mL tPSA range.     

Tumour markers for managing men who present with metastatic prostate cancer and serum prostate-specific antigen levels of <10 ng/mL

OBJECTIVE: To define immunohistochemical features of the primary cancers that might help in the differential diagnosis and monitoring of treatment in men presenting with metastatic prostate cancer and low serum levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), who can be difficult to diagnose and manage. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Paraffin blocks of prostate biopsies were obtained for 33 patients presenting with untreated metastatic prostate cancer and serum PSA levels of <10 ng/mL. Sections were immunostained for PSA, prostatic acid phosphatase (PAP), prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA), androgen receptor (AR), chromogranin A and CD 56. RESULTS: The combined Gleason scores were 8-10 in 25 men (76%) and 6 or 7 in the other eight (24%). Morphologically, there were no neuroendocrine features. PSA immunostaining was equivocal in 12 (36%) cases and in a further 19 (58%) was strong but focal and could be missed on biopsy sampling. PSMA was expressed in 90% of cases, and staining was widely distributed in nine of the 12 in which PSA staining was equivocal. There was strong AR expression in 30 (91%) cases and it was present in areas where PSA was absent. CONCLUSION: In this patient group, immunohistochemical assessments of PSMA and AR are potentially useful as diagnostic markers.     

Prostate gland volume is a strong predictor of biopsy results in men 70 years or older with prostate-specific antigen levels of 2.0–10.0 ng/mL

PURPOSE: The incidence of prostate cancer, benign prostatic enlargement and serum level of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) increase with patient age. Intermediate elevation of PSA in elderly populations is apt to be considered insignificant. We evaluated the impact of PSA and prostate volume on the presence of non-palpable prostate cancer in elderly men with an intermediate level of PSA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical records of 154 men 70 years or older, with non-cancerous digital rectal examination findings and with serum PSA levels of 2.0-10.0 ng/mL, who underwent initial 6- to 10-core transrectal prostate biopsy, were reviewed for prostate volume, number of biopsy cores, PSA and associated parameters. Stepwise logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) models were used to determine the impacts of the parameters on the biopsy results. RESULTS: Overall cancer detection rate was 40/154 or 26.0%. Prostate-specific antigen showed no significant association with the presence of prostate cancer (P = 0.59, Mann-Whitney U-test), while prostate volume did (P < 0.0001). On stepwise logistic regression analysis, prostate volume (P = 0.024, 95% CI 1.008-1.116) and biopsy core density (P = 0.017, 95% CI 4.76-7.12 x 10(6)) were independently associated with a cancer diagnosis, whereas PSA density was not an independent factor for a positive biopsy result. The area under the ROC curve for prostate volume was significantly superior to that of PSA (0.802 vs. 0.529; P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: In men 70 years or older with gray zone PSA, prostate cancer patients are equally distributed over any PSA range. Although PSA has less impact on cancer presence than mere prostate volume, prostate cancer would be detected in a substantial proportion of older patients with PSA levels of 2.0-10.0 ng/mL.     

M1 prostate cancer with a serum level of prostate-specific antigen less than 10 ng/mL

BACKGROUND: M1 prostate cancer, which is invasive, is usually associated with a serum level of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) greater than 10 ng/mL, but cases are occurring where the serum PSA level is less than this. The present study investigated the clinical and pathologic characteristics of these cases of M1 prostate cancer. METHODS: Between April 1989 and March 1998, 167 cases of M1 prostate cancer were diagnosed by transrectal needle biopsy and eight of these with a serum PSA level less than 10 ng/mL were investigated. The patients' ages ranged from 57 to 79 years (median, 73) and the serum PSA levels ranged from less than 4.0 to 9.8 ng/mL. In all cases except one, the distal metastasis was to bones only. All cases had received hormonal therapy as the initial therapy. Immunostaining of PSA, chromogranin A, neuron-specific enolase, carcinoembryonic antigen and vimentin were performed in five of the eight cases. RESULTS: Four cases were poorly differentiated, two were undifferentiated, one was a mixture of poorly differentiated and undifferentiated and one case was moderately differentiated. Of the five cases in the immunohistochemical study, three cases with an undifferentiated carcinoma component showed negative staining reactions for PSA and all cases were positive for carcinoembryonic antigen. Four of the patients died of prostate cancer. In two of these four cases, hormonal therapy was ineffective, but systemic chemotherapy and irradiation therapy had been moderately effective. The overall 3-year survival rate was 33.3%. CONCLUSIONS: The cases of M1 prostate cancer with a serum PSA less than 10 ng/mL are almost always poorly differentiated or undifferentiated and have a poor prognosis compared with the usual M1 prostate cancer. Because hormonal therapy is ineffective in these cases, systemic chemotherapy and irradiation therapy should be chosen as the initial therapy.     

Development of a new nomogram for predicting the probability of a positive initial prostate biopsy in Japanese patients with serum PSA levels less than 10 ng/mL

Objectives:   Although several nomograms for prostate cancer detection have been developed for Western populations, the models constructed on Japanese data would be more useful for the Japanese population because of various differences between Western and Asian populations. We previously developed a model for predicting the probability of a positive initial prostate biopsy using clinical and laboratory data from Japanese males. In the present study, a predictive model for Japanese males with a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) < 10 ng/mL was developed to guide decision-making for prostate biopsies.
Methods:   The age, total PSA level, free to total PSA ratio, prostate volume, and the digital rectal examination findings of 1037 Japanese males with a PSA < 10 ng/mL undergoing initial prostate biopsy as part of individual screening were analyzed. For study validation, 20% of these data was randomly reserved. Logistic regression analysis estimated relative risk, 95% confidence intervals, and P -values.
Results:   Age and the independent predictors of a positive biopsy result (elevated PSA, decreased free to total PSA ratio, small prostate volume, and abnormal digital rectal examination findings) were used to develop a predictive nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly higher for the model (73.0%) than for PSA alone (55.0%). If externally validated, the use of this nomogram could reduce unnecessary biopsies by 26% and overall prostate biopsies by 7.8%.
Conclusions:   This predictive nomogram could provide more precise risk-analysis information for individual Japanese patients with PSA levels less than 10 ng/mL and may help to identify patients who need a prostate biopsy.     

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) complexed to alpha1-antichymotrypsin improves prostate cancer detection using total PSA in Japanese patients with total PSA levels of 2.0-4.0 ng/mL

OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) complexed to alpha1-antichymotrypsin (PSA-ACT) in prostate cancer screening in Japanese men with a total PSA level of 2.0-4.0 ng/mL, as improving cancer detection in men with these total PSA levels is a challenge for clinical urologists. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Total PSA and PSA-ACT were prospectively assessed and prostate biopsy recommended for patients who met either of two thresholds, i.e. a total PSA of > or = 2.0 ng/mL or a PSA-ACT of > or= 1.5 ng/mL. The diagnostic ability of total PSA and PSA-ACT, and free-to-total PSA ratio and prostate volume-adjusted density were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: Of 1003 men enrolled, 547 met the biopsy criteria and a biopsy was taken in 315 (57.6%) patients. The area under the ROC curve for PSA-ACT (0.679) was significantly greater than that for total PSA (0.601, P = 0.04) and equivalent to that for the free-to-total ratio (0.686, P = 0.911) in 116 men, including 27 with cancer with total PSA levels of 2.0-4.0 ng/mL. PSA-ACT was more specific than the free-to-total ratio at a sensitivity of 95% (36% vs 18%, P < 0.05). The best variable for discriminating between cancer and benign disease in men with PSA levels of 2.0-4.0 ng/mL was PSA-ACT density (area under the curve 0.852) which provided 66% specificity at a sensitivity of 90%. CONCLUSIONS: PSA-ACT is better than total PSA and equivalent to the free-to-total ratio for detecting prostate cancer in men with PSA levels of 2.0-4.0 ng/mL, and is thus useful for reducing the number of unnecessary biopsies.     

Does transrectal ultrasound guided eight‐core prostate biopsy improve cancer detection rates in patients with prostate‐specific antigen levels of 4.1–10 ng/mL?

BACKGROUND: To investigate retrospectively whether the eight-core biopsy method improves the prostate cancer detection rate when compared with the standard sextant biopsy method in patients with prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels of 4.1-10 ng/mL. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Of 437 patients whose PSA levels ranged from 4.1 to 10 ng/mL, 237 underwent a transrectal ultrasound guided sextant biopsy (sextant group), and 200 underwent an eight-core biopsy (eight-core group). Eight core samples were obtained from each of the far lateral regions in addition to the standard sextant biopsy cores. None of the patients had a previous history of prostate biopsy. RESULTS: Of the 237 patients in the sextant group, prostate cancer was detected in 47 patients (19.8%) and in 50 of the 200 patients in the eight- core group (25.0%). The rates of detection in the two methods were not statistically significant. However, in patients whose PSA density was less than 0.1 ng/mL per cc, the cancer detection rates in the sextant group and the eight-core group were 4.5% and 18.8%, respectively (P = 0.046). The morbidity and complications of the eight-core biopsy method were not notable. CONCLUSIONS: Only in patients with PSA levels of 4.1-10 ng/mL and density of less than 0.1 ng/mL per cc was the eight-core biopsy method an improvement on the sextant biopsy method in terms of prostate cancer detection rate. Accordingly, a number of cores greater than eight will be required to improve the cancer detection rates in patients with PSA levels of 4.1-10 ng/mL and PSA densities of more than 0.1 ng/mL per cc.     

Over-diagnosis and under-diagnosis of screen- vs non-screen-detected prostate cancers with in men with prostate-specific antigen levels of 2.0-10.0 ng/mL

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate possible over‐ and under‐diagnosis of prostate cancer in a screened vs a referral population in the same range of prostate‐specific antigen (PSA).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In all, 1445 patients undergoing radical prostatectomy and with a PSA level of <10 ng/mL were evaluated; 237 were from outside Tyrol (Austria) and represented the unscreened group, and 1208 were Tyrolean screening volunteers. Over‐diagnosis was defined as a pathological stage of pT2a and a Gleason score of <7 with no positive surgical margins. Under‐diagnosis was defined as a pathological stage of ≥pT3a or positive surgical margins. The chi‐square test was used to assess the differences, with P < 0.05 considered to indicate statistical significance.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in patient age or PSA levels between the study groups. There was over‐diagnosis in the screening and referral groups in 17.4% and 8.9%, respectively, and under‐diagnosis in 18.6% and 42.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that patients with prostate cancer participating in a screening programme are less likely to be under‐diagnosed or have extracapsular disease than their counterparts in a referral population, even in the same PSA range, after radical prostatectomy. Furthermore, there was more under‐diagnosis in the referral group than over‐diagnosis in the screened group.     

Predicting the probability of significant prostate cancer in Japanese men with serum prostate‐specific antigen less than 10 ng/mL: Development of a novel pre‐biopsy nomogram

Objectives: To develop and assess a new nomogram incorporating pre‐biopsy clinical data to predict significant prostate cancer in Japanese men with a serum prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) level of less than 10 ng/mL. Methods: We collected pre‐biopsy data from 620 men with a serum total PSA of less than 10 ng/mL. They included 491 men with a negative biopsy and 129 men who were confirmed to have histological prostate cancer and subsequently underwent radical prostatectomy. Clinically significant tumors were defined as those with a tumor volume larger than 0.5 mL and/or a Gleason score of 7 or more. Results: One hundred and seven prostatectomy patients had clinically significant cancers. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that digital rectal examination findings, PSA adjusted for transition zone volume and free‐to‐total PSA ratio were the significant independent predictors of significant cancers (P < 0.0001). Using these pre‐biopsy independent factors, a nomogram was developed to predict significant cancers. According to a receiver operating characteristics analysis, the nomogram showed an area under the curve of 0.831. Conclusion: This represents the first nomogram to predict the probability of clinically significant cancers before biopsy. This tool is most likely to be useful in the management of patients with moderate to elevated PSA.     

Prostate-specific antigen cut-off point of 2.5 ng/mL and increasing the number of prostate biopsies results in the detection of curable prostate cancer even in Japanese population

AIM: There is a trend for the cut-off point of Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) to be lower and the number of biopsies to be increased for detecting prostate cancer. I divided patients who visited my institution for prostate biopsy into 3 groups based on the time of examination. The results were evaluated retrospectively. METHODS: The three groups were: group A, PSA cut-off point of 4.0 ng/mL and sextant biopsy; group B, 2.5 ng/mL and 12 core biopsies; and group C, 2.5 ng/mL and saturation biopsy. I evaluated the rates of cancer detection, localized cancer, T1c, high grade cancer, major complications, insignificant cancer and the pain scores, and compared biopsy number and cancer detection rates with PSA range. Only the patients with T1c and PSA 2.6-10.0 ng/mL were evaluated about high grade cancer and insignificant cancer rates. RESULTS: Cancer detection rates, localized cancer rates and T1c rates were significantly high in group C. There were no significant differences in the high grade cancer rates, major complication rates and the insignificant cancer rates. A comparison between biopsy number and cancer detection rates was significantly high in the saturation biopsy group with PSA 4.1-10.0 ng/mL. CONCLUSION: A PSA cut-off point of 2.5 ng/mL and increasing the number of biopsies results in the increased detection of localized prostate cancer. The insignificant cancer rate, the high grade cancer rate and the complication rate were not significantly different among the groups. I recommend a PSA cut-off point of 2.5 ng/mL and an increased number of biopsies, saturation biopsy particularly in cases with PSA 4.1- 10.0 mg/mL.     

Predictors of prostate cancer on repeat prostatic biopsy in men with serum total prostate-specific antigen between 4.1 and 10 ng/mL

OBJECTIVES: We determine whether the different molecular forms of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and other PSA variables can predict prostate cancer in men undergoing repeat prostate needle biopsy. METHODS: Between 1997 and 2001, repeat biopsy was performed in 97 patients who had undergone prior negative prostate biopsy. The ability of total PSA (tPSA), complexed PSA (cPSA), free PSA (fPSA), free-to-total PSA (fPSA/tPSA), free-to-complexed PSA (fPSA/cPSA), complexed-to-total PSA (cPSA/tPSA), tPSA density (tPSAD), cPSA density (cPSAD), transition zone tPSA density (tPSATZ) and transition zone cPSA density (cPSATZ) was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyzes as well as receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Prostate cancer on repeat biopsy was detected in 24% of subjects (23 of 97) who had a negative initial biopsy. The PSA parameters cut-off to ensure a 96% sensitivity of cancer detection, were 29% using fPSA/tPSA, 32% using fPSA/cPSA, 0.18 ng/mL/cc using tPSATZ and 0.16 ng/mL/cc using cPSATZ. The fPSA/tPSA would have prevented 32% of negative biopsies, the fPSA/cPSA 28%, the tPSATZ 23% and the cPSATZ 30%. ROC curve analysis fPSA/tPSA, fPSA/cPSA ratios, tPSATZ and cPSATZ were significantly better predictors of repeat biopsy results than tPSA or cPSA, but there was no significant difference in the ROC curves among these four PSA parameters. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis these four PSA parameters were significant predictors for cancer detection in the repeat biopsy group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: fPSA/tPSA ratio, fPSA/cPSA ratio, tPSATZ and cPSATZ enhance the specificity of PSA testing compared to tPSA or cPSA when determining which patients should undergo repeat biopsy.     

建立前列腺特异性抗原灰区患者重复穿刺阳性的数学模型

目的:建立预测前列腺特异性抗原(PSA)灰区患者重复穿刺阳性的数学模型。方法:选择2004~2016年158例血清PSA位于4~10ng/ml且首次穿刺病理结果为阴性的患者行重复穿刺,记录并分析患者的年龄、前列腺体积(PV)、PSA、游离PSA(fPSA)/总PSA(tPSA)、前列腺特异性抗原速率(PSAV)、前列腺特异抗原密度(PSAD)、前列腺移行带特异性抗原密度(PSAD-TZ)、超声检查(TRUS)、直肠指检(DRE)、高级别上皮内瘤变(HGPIN)、不典型小腺泡增生(ASAP)等重复活检结果的潜在预测指标。将有统计学意义的变量行二分类Logistic回归分析和建立数学模型,该模型的预测价值通过ROC曲线下面积(AUC)来评估。结果:158例前列腺重复穿刺活检患者中,前列腺癌的检出率为25.9%(41/158),单变量分析结果中统计学上有意义的指标包括Age、PV、f/tPSA、PSAD、PSAD-TZ、DRE、TRUS、Previous HGPIN、Previous ASAP(P<0.05),对以上所有变量进行二分类Logistic回归分析并建立数学模型,预测指标ASAP、HGPIN、f/tPSA、TRUS、DRE被纳入该模型。该模型AUC为89.8%,预测价值较高。结论:该数学模型可以很好的预测PSA患者重复穿刺阳性的概率,能够帮助临床医师判断哪些PSA灰区患者更适合行超声引导下前列腺重复穿刺活检术。