Risk Factors for Perimenopausal Fractures: A Prospective Study

This prospective study was aimed at determining the risk factors for the development of fractures in perimenopausal women. The study group (n= 3068) was comprised of a stratified population sample of women aged between 47 and 56 years. During the follow-up period of 3.6 years, 257 (8.4%) of the women sustained a total of 295 fractures. After adjustment for covariates, the relative risk (RR) of sustaining a fracture was found to be 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–1.6] for a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in the spinal and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Women with a previous fracture history were found to have an increased risk of fracture [RR 1.7 (95% CI 1.3–2.2)] and those reporting three or more chronic illnesses exhibited a RR of 1.4 (95% CI 1.0–1.9). Women not using hormone replacement therapy (HRT) had a RR of 1.5 (95% CI 1.1–2.2) for all fracture types. When osteoporotic fractures (vertebral, hip, proximal humerus and wrist fractures; n= 98) were used as an endpoint, the independent risk factors were found to be a low BMD (RR for a 1 SD decrease in both spinal and femoral neck BMD was 1.6, 95% CI 1.3–2.0), a previous fracture history (RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3–2.9) and nonuse of HRT (RR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3–4.0). The independent risk factors for all other fractures (n = 158) were a low BMD (RR for a 1 SD decrease in the spinal BMD was 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.6 and in the femoral neck BMD was 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.5), a previous fracture history (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.2), smoking (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–2.7) and having had three or more chronic illnesses (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.2). Weight, height, age, menopausal status, maternal hip fracture, use of alcohol, coffee consumption or dietary calcium intake were not independently associated with the development of any particular type of fracture. We conclude that the independent risk factors for perimenopausal fractures are a low bone density, previous fracture history, nonuse of HRT, having had three or more chronic illnesses and smoking, the gradient of risk being similar for spinal and femoral neck BMD measurements in the perimenopausal population. The risk factors are slightly different for perimenopausal osteoporotic than for other types of fractures. Received: 6 April 1999 / Accepted: 18 August 1999     

Risk factors for hip fracture in Asian men and women: the Asian osteoporosis study.

The objectives of the Asian Osteoporosis Study (AOS) were to determine risk factors for hip fracture in men and women in four Asian countries, that is, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. A total of 451 men and 725 women (aged 50 years and over) with hip fractures were compared with an equal number of community controls. A standardized questionnaire was administered by interview. The following relative risks (RRs) were found in women and men by multiple logistic regression: dietary calcium intake < 498 mg/day, 2.0 for women (95% CI, 1.5-2.8) and 1.5 for men (95% CI, 1.0-2.2); no load bearing activity in the immediate past, 2.0 for women (95% CI, 1.4-2.7) and 3.4 for men (95% CI, 2.3-5.1); no vigorous sport activities in young adulthood, 7.2 for women (95% CI, 4.0-13.0) and 2.4 for men (95% CI, 1.6-3.6); cigarette smoking, 1.5 for men (95% CI, 1.0-2.1); alcohol consumption 7 days a week, 2.9 for women (95% CI, 1.0-8.6) and 1.9 for men (95% CI, 1.1-3.2); fell twice or more in the last 12 months, 3.0 for women (95% CI, 1.8-4.8) and 3.4 for men (95% CI, 1.8-6.6); a history of fractures after 50 years of age, 1.8 for women (95% CI, 1.1-2.9) and 3.0 for men (95% CI, 1.6-5.6); a history of stroke, 3.8 for women (95% CI, 2.0-7.1) and 3.6 for men (95% CI, 1.8-7.1); use of sedatives, 2.5 for women (95% CI, 1.0-6.3) and 3.0 for men (95% CI, 1.0-9.7); and use of thyroid drugs, 7.1 for women (95% CI, 2.0-25.9) and 11.8 for men (95% CI, 1.3-106.0). Women who were 1.56 m or taller had an RR of 2.0 (95% CI, 1.3-3.0) for hip fracture and men who were 1.69 m or taller had an RR of 1.9 (95% CI, 1.2-3.1) for hip fracture. Based on these findings, primary preventive programs for hip fracture could be planned in Asia.     

Vascular calcification in middle age and long-term risk of hip fracture: the Framingham Study.

Osteoporosis and atherosclerosis frequently occur in the same individuals and may share similar pathogenic mechanisms. This study examined the relation between severity of aortic calcification in middle-age years and subsequent risk of hip fracture in women and men in the population-based Framingham Study. INTRODUCTION: We assessed vascular calcification in women and men in middle age and risk of hip fracture at advanced age. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants included 2499 Framingham cohort members (mean age, 61 yr; range, 47-80 yr). Semiquantitative methods were used to determine severity of abdominal aortic calcification on baseline radiographs. Information on potential confounding factors was obtained from study examinations conducted at, or before, baseline radiography. Hip fractures were ascertained by active surveillance and confirmed by medical records. RESULTS: Thirty-five-year cumulative incidence of hip fracture was 16% in women and 5% in men with prevalent aortic calcification at baseline (score 1+) and 14% in women and 4% in men without aortic calcification (score 0). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for hip fracture did not increase from the lowest to the highest category of aortic calcification. HRs were 1.0, 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9-1.8), 1.2 (95% CI, 0.7-1.9), 1.1 (95% CI, 0.7-1.7), and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.8-2.3) in women (p for trend = 0.44) and 1.0, 1.8 (95% CI, 0.8-3.8), 1.8 (95% CI, 0.7-4.6), 1.5 (95% CI, 0.6-3.9), and 1.2 (95% CI, 0.2-5.7) in men (p for trend = 0.29) for aortic calcification scores 0 (reference), 1-4, 4-5, 6-10, and 11+, respectively. However, aortic calcification score was strongly associated with increased risk of death (p for trend < 0.0001 in women and men). HRs (95% CIs) for mortality from the lowest to highest aortic calcification score were 1.0, 1.6 (1.4-1.9), 1.7 (1.4-2.1), 1.8 (1.5-2.2), and 2.1 (1.7-2.6) for women, and for men were 1.0, 1.4 (1.1-1.6), 1.4 (1.2-1.8), 1.6 (1.3-2.0), and 1.9 (1.5-2.5). CONCLUSIONS: Vascular calcification in middle-aged adults does not increase long-term hip fracture risk.     

Fracture Risk in Type 2 Diabetes: Update of a Population‐Based Study

We found no significant excess of fractures among Rochester, MN, residents with diabetes mellitus initially recognized in 1950–1969, but more recent studies elsewhere have documented an apparent increase in hip fracture risk. To explore potential explanations for any increase in fractures, we performed an historical cohort study among 1964 Rochester residents who first met glycemic criteria for diabetes in 1970–1994 (mean age, 61.7 ± 14.0 yr; 51% men). Fracture risk was estimated by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and risk factors were evaluated in Andersen‐Gill time‐to‐fracture regression models. In 23,236 person‐years of follow‐up, 700 diabetic residents experienced 1369 fractures documented by medical record review. Overall fracture risk was elevated (SIR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2–1.4), but hip fractures were increased only in follow‐up beyond 10 yr (SIR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1–1.9). As expected, fracture risk factors included age, prior fracture, secondary osteoporosis, and corticosteroid use, whereas higher physical activity and body mass index were protective. Additionally, fractures were increased among patients with neuropathy (hazard ratio [HR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1–1.6) and those on insulin (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1–1.5); risk was reduced among users of biquanides (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6–0.96), and no significant influence on fracture risk was seen with sulfonylurea or thiazolidinedione use. Thus, contrary to our earlier study, the risk of fractures overall (and hip fractures specifically) was increased among Rochester residents with diabetes, but there was no evidence that the rise was caused by greater levels of obesity or newer treatments for diabetes.     

Risk factors for hip fracture in skilled nursing facilities: who should be evaluated?

This paper aims to identify risk factors for hip fracture in Medicare skilled nursing facility (SNF) residents and to develop a predictive model based on routinely collected administrative data (the Minimum Data Set, MDS) to identify high-risk residents. Prospective cohort study of 28,807 North Carolina Medicare SNF residents aged >65 years with a complete MDS assessment in 1999. Demographic, historical, physical, cognitive, behavioral, activities of daily living, and medication variables were obtained from the MDS. Hip fracture occurring after the first MDS assessment identified by ICD-9 code was the outcome measure. Variables significantly associated with hip fracture by chi-square test in a randomly selected derivation sample were combined in a multivariable logistic model and in models stratified by gender. The models were validated in the remaining subjects. Variables significantly related to subsequent hip fracture in the full cohort include: female sex (odds ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.0-1.7), white race (2.3, 1.6-3.5), age (1.03 per year, 1.01-1.04), cognitive impairment (1.4, 1.8-1.8), incontinence (0.68, 0.5-0.9), prior fractures (1.6, 1.2-2.1), and prior falls (1.4, 1.2-1.8). In ambulatory non-Hispanic white women, anxiety (1.5, 1.0-2.1), anxiolytic use (1.4, 1.1-1.9), wandering (1.4, 1.0-2.2), and training in community skills (1.4, 1.1-1.8) were new significant variables. For ambulatory non-Hispanic white men, education level (2.0, 1.2-3.2), weight loss (0.5, 0.2-1.0), history of osteoporosis (3.0, 1.3-6.7), pathologic bone fracture (9.7, 2.2-42.6), COPD (2.1, 1.3-3.5), glaucoma (2.6, 1.0-6.2), and standing balance impairment (1.8, 1.0-3.3) were also significant. All models were highly correlated with subsequent hip fracture, but the discriminative ability was limited (c statistic 0.678). Risk factors explained more of hip fracture risk in non-Hispanic white men (c statistic 0.793) than non-Hispanic white women (0.658). Risk factors for hip fracture in Medicare SNF residents have similarities and differences from those previously identified in community-dwelling older adults. Osteoporosis screening and intervention should focus on the healthiest, most independent subset of residents who have the greatest fracture risk.     

Relationships Between Risk Factors and Fractures Differ by Type of Fracture: A Population-Based Study of 12192 Perimenopausal Women

Relationship between selected factors and fractures according to type of fracture were retrospectively examined in 12192 women aged 47–56 years responding to the baseline postal enquiry of the Kuopio Osteoporosis Study, Finland, in 1989. A total of 1358 women reported fractures sustained during the previous 9.4 years, i.e. at ages 38–57 years. The incidence of fractures per 1000 person-years was 17.2 after menopause and 9.5 before (p < 0.0001). The adjusted fracture risk was elevated in smokers versus non-smokers (OR: 1.5; (95%CI = 1.3–1.9) and in those with chronic health disorders versus the healthy (OR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.1–1.5). Long-term work disability was associated with fractures independently of health disorders (OR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.1–1.6). Anthropometric measures were not associated with the overall fracture risk. Menopause was strongly and linearly related to wrist fracture but not to ankle fracture. A 1 SD increase in body mass index decreased the risk of wrist fracture by 21% (p = 0.0001) but increased that of ankle fracture by 24% (p = 0.002). Smoking was related to ankle fracture (OR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.6–3.2) but not to wrist fracture (OR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.6–1.4). Health disorders were more markedly associated with fractures other than those of the wrist or ankle. Relationships between several risk factors and pre- and perimenopausal fractures vary by type of fracture. This may affect, for example, the comparability of studies with varying fracture profiles.     

Quantitative Ultrasound (QUS) of the Heel Predicts Wrist and Osteoporosis-Related Fractures in Women Age 45–75 Years

This study was designed to determine the ability of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) of the heel to predict fracture risk at different sites in postmenopausal women between the ages of 45 and 75 years. Heel QUS was measured at baseline using a Lunar Achilles scanner, and subsequent fractures were identified over 3 yr. The results were analyzed graphically after age adjustment and using Cox's proportional regression to estimate odds ratios for fracture risk; 3180 women were scanned (79% of sample). Sixty-three wrist, 12 hip, 4 vertebral, 7 proximal humerus, 3 pelvic, and 61 other fractures were identified over a mean followup of 31 mo. There was a fivefold difference in numbers of wrist and osteoporosis-related fractures (hip, vertebra, pelvis, and humerus combined) between the lowest and highest quartiles of QUS results adjusted for age. The odds ratios per 1 SD decline in QUS parameters adjusted for age were: wrist fractures BUA = 1.6, SOS = 1.5, stiffness = 1.8, osteoporosis-related fractures BUA = 1.9, speed of sound (SOS) = 1.6, stiffness = 2.2, and other fractures, BUA = 1.0, SOS = 1.1, stiffness = 1.1. When analyzed for each 10-yr age group, the odds ratios were generally higher in the 56-65 yr group than the other decades. In women between 45 and 75 yr, heel QUS can predict wrist and osteoporosis- related fractures at about the same level that dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) of various sites can predict wrist fractures. This extends the current evidence that heel QUS can predict hip fracture risk in women over 75 yr to include other fracture sites in younger women. Heel QUS may be useful in the primary care assessment of osteoporotic fracture risk in women after the menopause.     

Risk factors for fractures of the proximal humerus: results from the EPIDOS prospective study.

Fracture of the proximal humerus is one of the most frequent fractures attributable to osteoporosis; yet, it has seldom been studied. Two types of factors (related to bone fragility and falls) were evaluated to identify risk factors for proximal humerus fractures as well as to examine possible interactions between them. Subjects were 6901 white women aged > or =75 years and all participated in the EPIDOS study of risk factors for osteoporotic fractures (France, 1992-1998). The baseline examination included measurements of femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and calcaneal ultrasound parameters (speed of sound [SOS] and broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA]), a functional clinical examination, and completing a questionnaire on health status and lifestyle. During a mean of 3.6 (0.8) years of follow-up, 165 women had a humeral fracture. Using multivariate Cox regression models, we identified three predictors related to bone fragility-low BMD (relative risk [RR] = 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), low SOS (RR = 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6), and maternal history of hip fracture (RR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0-3.0)-and four fall-related predictors-a previous fall (RR = 3.0; 95% CI, 1.5-6.1), a low level of physical activity (RR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.4), impaired balance (RR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9), and pain in lower limb extremity (RR = 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-2.1). The effect of these fall-related predictors varied according to the BMD level; they were significantly associated with proximal humerus fractures in women with osteoporosis (BMD T score < -2.5) but not in nonosteoporotic women. The incidence of proximal humerus fracture in women with osteoporosis and a low fall risk score (5.1 per 1000 woman-years) was only slightly higher than in nonosteoporotic women (4.6 per 1000 woman-years) and similar to the incidence in women without osteoporosis but a high fall risk score (5.3 per 1000 woman-years). On the other hand, the incidence in women who had both types of risk factors was more than two times higher (12.1 per 1000 woman-years) than in women with only one of the two risk factors. These results suggest that women who have both types of risk factors should receive the highest priority for prevention.     

Long-Term Fracture Risk Following Ischemic Stroke: A Population-Based Study

The overall risk of fracture following stroke has not been well quantified. We addressed this issue in a population-based retrospective cohort study among the 387 Rochester, Minnesota residents who survived for 90 days following their first cerebral infarction during the 10-year period, 1960–69. Cases were matched by age and sex to controls from the general population of Rochester, and subsequent fractures were assessed through review of each subject’s complete (inpatient and outpatient) medical records in the community. With comparable follow-up, the 128 fractures observed among cases were little more than the 118 seen among controls, and the cumulative incidence of any fracture after 25 years was not significantly different (71% versus 66%; p=0.464). Using stratified Cox analysis, there was no increase in the risk of fractures generally (hazard ratio (HR), 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8–1.6) or hip fractures specifically (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6–2.1) compared with controls. Among the stroke patients with hemiparesis or hemiplegia, the majority of fractures occurred on the impaired side. In a multivariate analysis, fracture risk increased with age (HR per 10 years, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4–2.0), with hospitalization at onset of stroke (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3–3.2) and with moderate functional impairment (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.02–2.5) but not severe disability (HR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.4–1.6). No other characteristic of the stroke or its treatment was an independent predictor of overall fracture risk. Patients and their caretakers need to be aware of the risk of fracture from falls, particularly when moderate impairment permits the patient to be independently mobile. Received: 29 September 2000 / Accepted: 26 April 2001     

Identification of high-risk individuals for hip fracture: a 14-year prospective study.

In this 14-year prospective study, men and women were found to share a common set of risk factors for hip fracture: low BMD, postural instability and/or quadriceps weakness, a history of falls, and prior fracture. The combination of these risk factors accounted for 57% and 37% of hip fractures in women and men, respectively. INTRODUCTION: Risk factors for hip fracture, including low BMD, identified in women, have not been shown to be useful in men. It is also not known whether fall-related factors (muscle strength and postural instability) predict hip fracture. This study examined the association between falls-related factors and hip fractures in elderly men and women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is an epidemiologic, community-based prospective study, which included 960 women and 689 men > or = 60 years of age who have been followed for a median of 12 years (interquartile range, 6-13). The number of person-years was 9961 for women and 4463 for men. The outcome measure was incidence of hip fracture. Risk factors were femoral neck BMD (FNBMD), postural sway, quadriceps strength, prior fracture, and fall. RESULTS: Between 1989 and 2003, 115 (86 women) sustained a hip fracture. The risk of hip fracture (as measured by hazards ratio [HR]) was increased by 3.6-fold (95% CI: 2.6-4.5) in women and 3.4-fold (95% CI: 2.5-4.6) in men for each SD (0.12 g/cm2) reduction in FNBMD. After adjusting for BMD, the risk of hip fracture was also increased in individuals with the highest tertile of postural sway (HR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.6-4.5) and low tertiles of quadriceps strength (HR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.3-6.8). Furthermore, a history of fall during the preceding 12 months and a history of fracture were independent predictors of hip fracture. For each level of BMD, the risk of hip fracture increased linearly with the number of non-BMD risk factors. Approximately 57% and 37% of hip fracture cases in women and men, respectively, were attributable to the presence of risk factors, osteoporosis (BMD T score < or = -2.5), and advancing age. CONCLUSIONS: Men and women had a common set of risk factors for hip fracture: low BMD, postural instability and/or quadriceps weakness, a history of falls, and prior fracture. Preventive strategies should simultaneously target reducing falls and improvement of bone strength in both men and women.     

A Simple Risk Score for the Assessment of Absolute Fracture Risk in General Practice Based on Two Longitudinal Studies

The aim of this prospective study was to develop a risk score, based on putative risk factors in current guidelines, which can be used to identify women at high risk of fractures in general practice. The study sample included 4157 women ≥60 yr of age (mean ± SD: 74.1 ± 9.1 yr), with a median follow‐up of 8.9 yr of the Rotterdam Study (ERGO), and 762 women ≥65 yr of age (mean ± SD: 76.0 ± 6.7.yr), with a median follow‐up of 6.0 yr of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA). Potential risk factors were those proposed in risk scores of three recent guidelines on osteoporosis: age, family history of fractures, prior fracture, low body weight/body mass index (BMI), serious immobility, rheumatoid arthritis, current smoking, alcohol consumption >2 units daily, prevalent vertebral fracture, and systemic corticosteroid use. Five‐year absolute risk of hip fracture was 3.9% in the Rotterdam Study and 3.1% in LASA, and 10‐yr absolute risk of hip fracture was 8.4% in the Rotterdam Study. Using Cox regression analysis, age (70–79 and 80+ versus <60–69) and four other risk factors were included in the risk profiles of hip fractures and fragility fractures: any prior fracture after age 50, body weight <64 kg, use of a walking aid as a proxy measure of serious immobility, and current smoking. Estimated 10‐yr absolute risk of hip fracture ranged from 1.4% in women, age 60–69 years, without any of these predictors to 29% in women, ≥80 yr of age, having two or more positive risk factors. A simple risk score can satisfactorily identify older women at high risk of osteoporotic fractures in general practice. Future studies are needed to validate this score.     

Epidemiology of fracture risk in the Women’s Health Initiative

Osteoporosis is one of the most disabling consequences of aging in women. Strategies that permit earlier identification of women at risk for fracture are needed. The Women’s Health Initiative has extended our knowledge of clinical risk factors and biomarkers of fracture risk in postmenopausal women. Based upon 11 clinically available risk factors (age, race/ethnicity, self-reported health, weight, height, physical activity, parental hip fracture, fracture history after age 54, current smoking, corticosteroid use, and history of treated diabetes), an algorithm has been developed to predict 5-year hip fracture risk. Biomarkers including low vitamin D or bioavailable testosterone and/or high cystatin C or sex hormone-binding globulin also predict risk for hip fracture independent of clinical risk factors. To address the growing incidence of fractures in minority women, clinical risk factors for fracture have been identified. These data demonstrate that we can better identify women, irrespective of race or ethnicity, at risk for fracture.     

Risk of Subsequent Fractures and Mortality in Elderly Women and Men with Fragility Fractures with and without Osteoporotic Bone Density: The Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study

Half of fragility fractures occur in individuals with nonosteoporotic BMD (BMD T‐score > –2.5); however, there is no information on postfracture adverse events of subsequent fracture and mortality for different BMD levels. The objective of this work was to determine the risk and predictors of subsequent fracture and excess mortality following initial fracture according to BMD. The subjects were community‐dwelling participants aged 60+ years from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study with incident fractures followed from 1989 to 2011. The outcome measurements were as follows: risk of subsequent fracture and mortality according to BMD categorized as normal (T‐score < –1), osteopenia (T‐score ≤ –1 and > –2.5), and osteoporosis (T‐score ≤ –2.5). There were 528 low‐trauma fractures in women and 187 in men. Of these, 12% occurred in individuals with normal BMD (38 women, 50 men) and 42% in individuals with osteopenia (221 women, 76 men). The relative risk (RR) of subsequent fracture was >2.0‐fold for all levels of BMD (normal BMD: 2.0 [1.2 to 3.3] for women and 2.1 [1.2 to 3.8] for men; osteopenia: 2.1 [1.7 to 2.6] for women and 2.5 [1.6 to 4.1] for men; and osteoporosis 3.2 [2.7 to 3.9] for women and 2.1 [1.4 to 3.1] for men. The likelihood of falling and reduced quadriceps strength contributed to subsequent fracture risk in women with normal BMD. By contrast with subsequent fracture risk, postfracture mortality was increased particularly in individuals with low BMD (age‐adjusted standardized mortality ratio [SMR] for osteopenia 1.3 [1.1 to 1.7] and 2.2 [1.7 to 2.9] for women and men, respectively, and osteoporosis 1.7 [1.5 to 2.0] and 2.7 [2.0 to 3.6] for women and men, respectively). This study demonstrates the high burden of subsequent fracture in individuals with normal BMD and osteopenia, and excess mortality particularly for those with osteopenia (and osteoporosis). These findings highlight the importance of these fractures and underscore the gap in evidence for benefit of antiosteoporotic treatment for fragility fracture, in those with only mildly low BMD. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Functional limitations and poor physical performance as independent risk factors for self-reported fractures in older persons

Objective: This study examined whether three aspects of functioning (i.e., functional limitations, physical performance, and physical activity) were associated with fractures in older men and women. Design: A 3-year prospective cohort study. Participants and setting: A total of 715 men and 762 women, aged 65 years and older, of the population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam. Measurements: During an interview at home, three aspects of functioning were assessed: functional limitations (what people say they can do), physical performance, i.e., three performance tests and handgrip strength (what people are able to do), and physical activity (what people actually do). Afterward, a follow-up on fractures was conducted for 3 years. Results: 77 patients (5.2%) suffered a fracture during 3-year follow-up. Most patients suffered a hip fracture (1.6%) or a wrist fracture (1.4%). The fracture rate per 1,000 person-years was 20.1. During 3-year follow-up, a fracture was reported by 12%, 10%, 12%, and 6% of the respondents with functional limitations, low performance test score, poor handgrip strength, and low physical activity, respectively. Using Cox proportional hazard analysis, functional limitations (RR=3.5; 95%CI, 2.1 to 6.0), low performance test score (RR=1.9; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.3), low handgrip strength (RR=2.5; 95% CI, 1.5 to 4.1), and low physical activity (RR=1.9; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.5) were significantly associated with fractures after adjustment for age and sex. Functional limitations (RR=3.2; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.5), low performance test score (RR=1.8; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.3) and low handgrip strength (RR=2.0; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.6) remained significantly associated with fractures after additional adjustment for body composition, chronic diseases, psychosocial factors, life style factors, and the other levels of functioning. No significant interaction terms were found. Conclusions: Functional limitations and poor physical performance were independent risk factors for fractures.     

Independent predictors of all osteoporosis-related fractures in healthy postmenopausal women: the OFELY study

Several epidemiological studies have identified clinical factors that predict the risk of hip fractures in elderly women independently of the level of bone mineral density (BMD), such as low body weight, history of fractures, and clinical risk factors for falls. Their relevance in predicting all fragility fractures in all postmenopausal women, including younger ones, is unknown. The objective of this study was to identify independent predictors of all osteoporosis-related fractures in healthy postmenopausal women. We prospectively followed for 5.3 +/- 1.1 years a cohort of 672 healthy postmenopausal women (mean age 59.1 +/- 9.8 years). Information on social and professional conditions, demographic data, current and past medical history, fracture history, medication use, alcohol consumption, caffeine consumption, daily calcium intake, cigarette smoking, family history of fracture, and past and recent physical activity was obtained. Anthropometric and total hip bone mineral density measurements were made. Incident falls and fractures were ascertained every year. We observed 81 osteoporotic fractures (annual incidence, 21 per 1000 women/year). The final model consisted of seven independent predictors of incident osteoporotic fractures: age > or = 65 years, odds ratio estimate (OR), 1.90 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-3.46], past falls, OR, 1.76 (CI 1.00-3.09), total hip bone mineral density (BMD) < or = 0.736 g/cm(2), OR, 3.15 (CI 1.75-5.66), left grip strength < or = 0.60 bar, OR, 2.05 (CI 1.15-3.64), maternal history of fracture, OR, 1.77 (CI 1.01-3.09), low physical activity, OR, 2.08 (CI 1.17-3.69), and personal history of fragility fracture, OR, 3.33 (CI 1.75-5.66). In contrast, body weight, weight loss, height loss, smoking, neuromuscular coordination assessed by three tests, and hormone replacement therapy were not independent predictors of all fragility fractures after adjustment for all variables. We found that some--but not all--previously reported clinical risk factors for skeletal fragility predicted all fragility fractures independently of BMD in healthy postmenopausal women, although they differed somewhat from those predicting specifically hip fractures in elderly women. These risk factors appear to reflect quality of bone structure (previous fragility fracture), lifestyle habits (physical activity), muscle function and health status (grip strength), heredity (maternal history of fracture), falls, and aging. Measurements of these variables should be included in the clinical assessment of the risk of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women.     

Contributions of bone density and structure to fracture risk assessment in men and women

Although bone mineral density (BMD) is a strong predictor of fractures, it is only a surrogate for bone strength. Bone structural parameters can now be measured on BMD scans, but it is unclear whether they would be more useful for risk assessment. We measured structural parameters using the Hip Structural Analysis Program and evaluated their association, compared with standard hip BMD, with fracture risk in a population-based sample of 213 postmenopausal women and 200 men 50 years of age. Altogether, 38% of the women and 27% of the men had experienced a fracture due to moderate trauma (half involved hip, spine or distal forearm), while 23% and 36%, respectively, had a previous fracture due to severe trauma. In logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, the hip BMD and structural parameters were all associated with moderate trauma fractures generally, and osteoporotic fractures specifically, in women, but the best predictor in a multivariate model was femoral neck BMD (odds ratio [OR], 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9–4.0). BMD and the structural parameters were strongly correlated, however, and could be interchanged with little reduction in predictive power. These variables were less predictive of moderate trauma fractures in men. The best model included age (OR per 10 years, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1–2.1), femoral neck section modulus (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1–2.5) and intertrochanteric buckling ratio (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3–2.0). Correction for body size did not alter these relationships. Fractures due to severe trauma were best predicted by structural parameters: in women, femoral neck buckling ratio (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.04–1.5) and, in men, intertrochanteric buckling ratio (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2–1.6). These data suggest that selected structural variables as assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry would be as good as standard BMD measurements for predicting fracture risk. Because of the strong correlations, however, some judgment can be used in selecting the variables easiest to measure.     

Proximal Femur Geometry To Detect and Distinguish Femoral Neck Fractures from Trochanteric Fractures in Postmenopausal Women

Some proximal femur geometry (PFG) parameters, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), have been reported to discriminate subjects with hip fracture. Relatively few studies have tested their ability to discriminate femoral neck fractures from those of the trochanter. To this end we performed a cross-sectional study in a population of 547 menopausal women over 69 years of age with femoral neck fractures (n= 88), trochanteric fractures (n= 93) or controls (n= 366). Hip axis length (HAL), neck–shaft angle (NSA), femoral neck diameter (FND) and femoral shaft diameter (FSD) were measured by DXA, as well as the bone mineral density (BMD) of the nonfractured hip at the femoral neck, trochanter and Ward’s triangle. In fractured subjects, BMD was lower at each measurement site. HAL was longer and NSA wider in those with femoral neck fractures. With logistic regression the age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in BMD was significantly associated at each measurement site with femoral neck fracture (femoral neck BMD: OR 1.9, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.4–2.5; trochanter BMD: OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2–2.0; Ward’s triangle BMD: OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3–2.2) and trochanteric fracture (femoral neck BMD: OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9–3.6; trochanter BMD: OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.2–4.1; Ward’s triangle BMD: OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4–2.3). Age-adjusted OR for 1 SD increases in NSA (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.7–2.8) and HAL (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.6) was significantly associated with the fracture risk only for femoral neck fracture. In the best predictive model the strongest predictors were site-matched BMD for both fracture types and NSA for neck fracture. Trochanteric BMD had the greatest area (0.78, standard error (SE) 0.02) under the receiver operating characteristic curve in trochanteric fractures, whereas for NSA (0.72, SE 0.03) this area was greatest in femoral neck fractures. These results confirm the association of BMD with proximal femur fracture and support the evidence that PFG plays a significant role only in neck fracture prediction, since NSA is the best predictive parameter among those tested. Received: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 1 August 2001     

Preoperative predictors of blood transfusion in colorectal cancer surgery

Transfusion is associated with multiple risks and morbidities. Little is known, however, about preoperative predictors of transfusion in gastrointestinal surgery patients. To identify factors that influence transfusion practices, we analyzed hospital discharge data from colorectal cancer surgery patients in Maryland between 1994 and 2000 (n = 14,052). The primary outcome variable was whether or not patients received a blood product (“Any Transfusion”). Characteristics independently associated with an increased risk of receiving Any Transfusion included: advanced age (>80 yr: OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.9-2.9; 70–79 yr: OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4-2.0 vs. <60 yr), moderate to severe liver disease (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.5-4.2), mild liver disease (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.5-2.9), diabetes with complications (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.6-2.6), chronic renal disease (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.4-3.0), female gender (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.2-1.5), chronic pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1-1.4), and metastatic disease (OR 1.2; 95% CI 1.1-1.4). Patients at hospitals with an annual case volume in the highest quartile were at an increased risk for receiving Any Transfusion (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.4) and those with surgeons in the highest volume quartile (>12 cases/yr) were at a decreased risk (OR 0.8; 95% CI 0.6-0.99). The association between greater surgeon case volume and low transfusion rates was seen in all but the very high volume hospitals (>74 cases/yr). Blood product transfusion was associated with a 2.5-fold (95% CI 2.1-3.1) increased mortality, 3.7 day (95% CI 2.1-3.1) increase in hospital length of stay, and a $7120 (95% CI $6472-$7769) increase in total charges compared to patients that did not receive Any Transfusion. This data can be used by providers in discussions with patients regarding the risks for transfusion and in identifying patients in whom strategies to reduce transfusions should be evaluated.     

Risk factors for incident vertebral fractures in men and women: the Rotterdam Study.

Low BMD and prevalent vertebral fractures are known risk factors for incident vertebral fractures. In 3001 men and women from the Rotterdam Study, prevalent nonvertebral fractures, early menopause, current smoking, and walking aid use were also strong risk factors for incident vertebral fractures. INTRODUCTION: Thus far, age, low BMD, and prevalent vertebral fractures are the only well-known risk factors for incident vertebral fractures. Therefore, our aim was to investigate other potential risk factors for incident vertebral fractures in the elderly. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was based on the Rotterdam Study, a large prospective population-based cohort study among men and women > or =55 years of age. For 3001 subjects, spinal radiographs were obtained at baseline and again approximately 6.3 years later. These follow-up radiographs were scored for vertebral fractures using the McCloskey-Kanis method. Whenever a vertebral fracture was detected, the radiograph was compared with the baseline radiograph. If this fracture was not already present at baseline, it was considered incident. At baseline, information on potential risk factors was obtained. RESULTS: Low BMD and prevalent vertebral fractures were strong risk factors for incident vertebral fractures in both men and women (RR 2.3 [1.6-3.3] and 2.2 [0.9-5.0] for men and RR 2.1 [1.6-2.6] and 4.1 [2.5-6.7] for women, respectively). For women, age, early menopause (< or =45 years of age; RR 1.0 [1.1-3.5]), current smoking (2.1 [1.2-3.5]), and walking aid use (2.5 [1.1-5.5]) were additional independent risk factors. For men, only a history of nonvertebral fractures was a significant independent risk factor (OR 2.4 [1.2-4.8]). CONCLUSION: Apart from low BMD and prevalent vertebral fractures, prevalent nonvertebral fractures are associated with an increased incident vertebral fracture risk in men. In women, early menopause, current smoking, and walking aid use are additional independent risk factors for incident vertebral fractures.