Transarterial chemoembolization combined with recombinant human adenovirus type 5 H101 prolongs overall survival of patients with intermediate to advanced hepatocellular carcinoma:a prognostic nomogram study

Background: Patients with intermediate to advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are most commonly treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Previous studies showed that TACE combined with recombinant human adenovirus type 5 (H101) may provide a clinical survival benefit. In the present study, we aimed to determine the survival benefit of TACE with or without H101 for patients with intermediate to advanced HCC and to develop an effective nomogram for predicting individual survival outcomes of these patients. Methods: We retrospectively collected data from 590 patients with intermediate to advanced HCC who were treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between January 2007 and July 2015. After propensity score matching, 238 patients who received TACE with H101 (TACE with H101 group) and 238 patients who received TACE without H101 (TACE group) were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method; the nomogram was developed based on Cox regression analysis. Discrimination and calibration were measured using the concordance index (c-index) and calibration plots. Results: Clinical and radiologic features were similar between the two groups. OS rates were significantly lower in the TACE group than in the TACE with H101 group (1-year OS rate, 53.8% vs. 61.3%; 2-year OS rate, 33.4% vs. 44.2%;3-year OS rate, 22.4% vs. 40.5%; all P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis for the entire cohort showed that alpha-fetoprotein level, alkaline phosphatase level, tumor size, metastasis, vascular invasion, and TACE with or without H101 were independent factors for OS, all of which were included in the nomogram. Calibration curves showed good agreement between nomogram-predicted survival and observed survival. The c-index of the nomogram for predict-ing OS was 0.716 (95% confidence interval 0.686–0.746). Conclusions: TACE plus H101 extends the survival of patients with intermediate to advanced HCC. Our proposed nomogram provides individual survival prediction and stratification for patients with intermediate to advanced HCC who receive TACE with or without H101.     

Comparison of TNM staging systems for nasopharyngeal carcinoma,and proposal of a new staging system

Background:

There are few systematic evaluations regarding the sixth and seventh editions of the UICC/AJCC TNM Staging System (TNM6th, TNM7th) and Chinese 2008 Staging System (TNMc2008) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

Methods:

We classified 2333 patients into intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) cohort (n=941) and conventional radiotherapy (CRT) cohort (n=1392). Tumour staging defined by TNM6th, TNM7th and TNMc2008 was compared based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Harrell''s concordance index (c-index).

Results:

For T-classification, TNM6th (AIC=2585.367; c-index=0.6390385) had superior prognostic value to TNM7th (AIC=2593.242; c-index=0.6226889) and TNMc2008 (AIC=2593.998; c-index=0.6237146) in the IMRT cohort, whereas TNMc2008 was superior (AIC=5999.054; c-index=0.623547) in the CRT cohort. For N-classification, TNMc2008 had the highest prognostic value in both cohorts (AIC=2577.726, c-index=0.6297874; AIC=5956.339, c-index=0.6533576). Similar results were obtained when patients were stratified by chemotherapy types, age and gender. Using staging models in the IMRT cohort, we failed to identify better stage migrations than TNM6th T-classification and TNMc2008 N-classification. We therefore proposed to combine these categories; resultantly, stage groups of the proposed staging system showed superior prognostic value over TNM6th, TNM7th and TNMc2008.

Conclusion:

TNM6th T-classification and TNMc2008 N-classification have superior prognostic value in the IMRT era. By combining them with slight modifications, TNM criteria can be unified and its prognostic value be improved.     

Preoperative serum fibrinogen as a valuable predictor in the nomogram predicting overall survival of postoperative patients with gallbladder cancer

BackgroundCoagulation and fibrinolysis activation are frequently observed in cancer patients, and the tumors in these cases are thought to be associated with a higher risk of invasion, metastasis and worse long-term outcome. The specific aim of this study was to develop an effective prognostic nomogram to help make individualized estimates for patients with resected gallbladder cancer (GBC).MethodsPatients with resected GBC who were diagnosed between 2006 and 2014 at Xinhua Hospital were selected. Model performance was measured by c-index and calibration curve. The results were further validated using bootstrap and a cohort of 38 patients from a branch hospital who underwent surgery from 2006 to 2014.ResultsBackward stepwise selection and Lasso were applied respectively to select predictors. T stage, N stage, and preoperative serum fibrinogen were included in the final model. Predictions correlated well with observed 1- and 3-year survival. The c-index for predicting survival was 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.70–0.78), which was statistically higher than that of the AJCC 7th system and Nevin system (P=0.04, 0.04, respectively). In the validation cohort, the nomogram performed better than the other two staging systems (c-index: 0.71 vs. 0.67 and 0.67).ConclusionsThe validated nomogram is a practical tool for predicting the overall survival (OS) of postoperative GBC patients. Preoperative serum fibrinogen levels were associated with tumor progression and may be an independent predictor for GBC patients.     

基于MRI及IMRT下的鼻咽癌新T分期研究

目的 建立一个基于MRI并与IMRT相适应的鼻咽癌新T分期系统。方法 回顾分析2008—2010年我院基于MRI并接受IMRT的608例初治无转移鼻咽癌患者资料,按鼻咽癌第7版UICC/AJCC分期系统进行分期。Kaplan-Meier法计算相关生存率及Logrank检验,Cox法多因素分析。现行UICC/AJCC分期系统存在不足,在此基础上建立新鼻咽癌T分期系统,并对新T分期系统合理性进行评价。结果 5年随访率为94.5%,5年OS、DFS、LRFS、DMFS分别为81.5%、80.1%、86.0%、81.1%。单因素及多因素分析结果显示鼻咽、咽旁间隙、颅底解剖结构均为影响患者OS率因素(P=0.000—0.045)。根据风险差异性及生存曲线分布提出新T分期标准:T₁期:侵袭鼻咽、咽旁间隙、口咽、鼻腔、颅底、翼内肌;T₂期:侵袭翼外肌、鼻窦、眼眶、颅内、颞下窝、颅神经。推荐新T分期系统LRFS曲线及OS曲线均能很好地拉开。结论 推荐新T分期系统能较客观地预测鼻咽癌患者预后,可作为鼻咽癌临床新分期探索性的尝试。     

Development and validation of a new clinical staging system to predict survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: Application of the nomogram

IntroductionSurvival of patients with the same clinical stage varies widely and effective tools to evaluate the prognosis utilizing clinical staging information is lacking. This study aimed to develop a clinical nomogram for predicting survival of patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC).Materials and methodsOn the basis of data extracted from the SEER database (training cohort, n = 3375), we identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for nomogram development and internal validation. The model was then subjected to external validation with a separate dataset obtained from Jinling Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (validation cohort, n = 1187). The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and calibration curves. And risk group stratification was performed basing on the nomogram scores.ResultsOn multivariable analysis of the training cohort, seven independent prognostic factors were identified and included into the nomogram. Calibration curves presented good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. The AIC value of the nomogram was lower than that of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM (AJCC) staging system, whereas the C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the AJCC staging system. The risk groups stratified by CART allowed significant distinction between survival curves within respective clinical TNM categories.ConclusionsThe risk stratification system presented better discriminative ability for survival prediction than current clinical staging system and might help clinicians in decision making.     

Predicting prognosis in resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma using a clinical nomogram and recursive partitioning analysis

Background

Development demand of precise medicine in resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) require to recognize patients at high risk treated by surgery alone. Thus, our aim was to construct a clinical nomogram and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) to predict long-term survival in ESCC treated by surgery alone.

Nomogram for Predicting the Overall Survival of Patients With Breast Cancer With Pathologic Nodal Status N3

BackgroundPatients with breast cancer with pathologic N3 (pN3) lymph node status have been proven to have a poor prognosis. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with pN3 breast cancer.Materials and MethodsThe eligible patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. χ² tests and survival curves were performed to define the consistency between these 2 cohorts. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were carried out to identify the independent clinicopathologic factors of patients with pN3 breast cancer. A nomogram was developed and validated internally and externally by a calibration curve and compared with the seventh edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging classification in discrimination ability.ResultsRace, age at diagnosis, marital status, grade, T stage, N stage, breast cancer subtype, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent predictive factors of OS in pN3 breast cancer. We developed a nomogram to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and further validated it in both cohorts, demonstrating better prediction capacity in OS than that of the seventh edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging classification (area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.745 and 0.611 in the training cohort and 0.768 and 0.624 in the validation cohort, respectively).ConclusionWe have developed and validated the first nomogram for predicting the survival of pN3 breast cancer. This nomogram accurately and reliably predicted the OS of patients with pN3 breast cancer. However, more prognostic factors need to be further explored to improve the nomogram.     

Development and validation of prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

ObjectiveOur aims were to establish novel nomogram models, which directly targeted patients with signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC), for individualized prediction of overall survival (OS) rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS).MethodsWe selected 1,365 SRC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and then randomly partitioned them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Independent predicted indicators, which were identified by using univariate testing and multivariate analyses, were used to construct our prognostic nomogram models. Three methods, Harrell concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, were used to assess the ability of discrimination and predictive accuracy. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess clinical utility of our nomogram models.ResultsSix independent predicted indicators, age, race, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), T stage, M stage and tumor size, were associated with OS rate. Nevertheless, only five independent predicted indicators were associated with CSS except race. The developed nomograms based on those independent predicted factors showed reliable discrimination. C-index of our nomogram for OS and CSS was 0.760 and 0.763, which were higher than American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.734 and 0.741, respectively). C-index of validation cohort for OS was 0.757 and for CSS was 0.773. The calibration curves also performed good consistency. IDI, NRI and DCA showed the nomograms for both OS and CSS had a comparable clinical utility than the TNM staging system.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram models based on LODDS provided satisfying predictive ability of SRC both in OS and CSS than AJCC 8th edition TNM staging system alone.     

中国肝癌分期Ⅲ期肝细胞癌放疗后预后因素分析及列线图构建

目的 探讨影响接受调强放疗（intensity-modulated radiotherapy,IMRT）的中国肝癌分期（China liver cancer staging,CNLC）Ⅲ期肝细胞癌（hepatocellular carcinoma,HCC）患者预后的危险因素,并建立预后列线图模型。方法 收集2012年1月到2021年3月在广西医科大学附属肿瘤医院接受IMRT治疗的CNLCⅢ期HCC患者的临床资料进行回顾性分析。采用单因素和多因素Cox回归分析影响患者预后的独立危险因素。构建列线图模型预测患者1年、2年、3年的总生存率,并采用受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic,ROC）曲线和校准曲线评估模型效能。根据Cox模型风险评分的中位数将患者分为高、低风险组,使用Kaplan-Meier法绘制生存曲线图,log-rank检验分析两组的生存差异。结果 本研究共纳入250 HCC例患者。多因素Cox回归分析结果显示,肿瘤数目、甲胎蛋白（alpha-fetoprotein,AFP）、血清碱性磷酸酶(alkaline phosphatase,...     

A nomogram to predict survival and guide individualized induction chemotherapy in T3-4N1M0 nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Induction chemotherapy (IC) plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) and CCRT alone were the optional treatment regimens for T3-4N1M0 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. Therefore, we established a nomogram to predict clinical prognosis and guide individualized IC in T3-4N1M0 NPC. Overall, 699 T3-4N1M0 NPC patients treated with CCRT with or without IC between January 2010 and December 2018 were examined. Overall survival (OS) was the main endpoint. A nomogram was developed that included prognostic variables selected by multivariable analysis. The risk score, which was calculated according to the nomogram, was used for risk stratification. The survival difference of patients undergoing CCRT with or without IC was then compared in risk-stratified subgroups. The nomogram yielded C-indexes of 0.708 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.682-0.734) in the training cohort and 0.670 (95% CI: 0.625-0.715) in the validation cohort. Calibration curves for 1-, 3- and 5-year OS suggested a good association between the nomogram predicted and observed probabilities. High-risk patients stratified by nomogram benefited from IC (IC + CCRT vs CCRT: 5-year OS: 77.8% vs 58.8%; P = 0.040; 5-year disease-free survival: 75.0% vs 58.2%; P = 0.017), whereas in the low-risk group, the application of IC was associated with worse locoregional recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival. This nomogram can serve as a reliable model for prognostic prediction and can be used to guide individualized treatment of T3-4N1M0 NPC. High-risk patients are candidates for IC before CCRT, while the use of IC for low-risk patients should be considered carefully.     

APRI评分对HBV相关肝细胞癌切除术患者预后的预测价值

目的:评估天冬氨酸转氨酶与血小板计数比值指数（APRI）对HBV相关肝细胞癌（HCC）切除术患者术后总生存率（OS）的预测价值。方法:采用回顾性队列研究方法,收集2012年1月至2016年12月期间在广西医科大学附属肿瘤医院行切除术治疗的1 031例HBV相关HCC患者的术前临床资料。通过Kaplan-Meier生存曲线确定APRI评分的cutoff值。采用Kaplan-Meier法绘制不同APRI组患者的生存曲线,并通过Log-rank检验评估两组人群的生存差异。运用逐步多因素Cox回归筛选患者OS独立影响因素。采用限制性立方条图（RCS)评价患者APRI与死亡风险的相关性。建立列线图模型评估APRI对OS的预测能力并内部验证。结果:RCS显示APRI与死亡风险呈非线性关联（非线性P＜0.001）。多因素Cox回归结果显示:APRI、BCLC分期、AFP、性别和肿瘤大小是OS独立影响因素,高APRI组死亡风险是低APRI组2.1倍。患者OS的列线图显示APRI对OS的预测能力仅次于BCLC分期。在建模组和验证组中预测OS列线图的C-index分别为0.71（95%CI:0.68~0.74）、0.69（95%CI:0.64~0.75）;1和5年OS校正曲线显示列线图具有良好的校准度;临床决策曲线（DCA）显示模型具有良好的临床应用价值。结论:APRI是HBV相关HCC切除术患者OS独立影响因素,基于APRI对患者预后进行分层,有利于进行个体化治疗和随访。     

美国癌症研究联合会两版临床分期标准对局部晚期胃癌疗后预测价值比较

目的 比较美国癌症研究联合会第6、7版分期对局部晚期胃癌根治术后的预后预测。方法 对2002-2004年在本院接受胃癌根治性手术(R0切除且＞D1淋巴结清扫)、病理诊断为T3-4N0～1M0、TxN2-3 M0期的297例患者分别按两版分期标准进行分期,比较两版分期的N、TNM分期中5年总生存(OS)、无瘤生存(DFS...     

Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization Following Liver Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Based on Survival Risk Stratification

Background.

The effectiveness of adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after hepatectomy remains unclear. This study was performed to identify ICC patients who would benefit from adjuvant TACE.

Patients and Methods.

The study included 553 patients who underwent hepatectomy for ICC between January 2008 and February 2011 at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital and who were treated with or without TACE (122 with TACE and 431 without TACE). Survival risk stratification was performed using the established prognostic nomogram (ICC nomogram). The predictive performance was evaluated by concordance index and calibration. The tumor recurrence and overall survival (OS) rates were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method before and after propensity score matching (PSM).

Results.

The predictive performance of the ICC nomogram was demonstrated by the well-fitted calibration curves and an optimal c-index of 0.71 for OS prediction. In the whole cohort, the 5-year recurrence and OS rates between the TACE and non-TACE groups were significantly different (5-year recurrence: 72.9% vs. 78.1%; OS: 38.4% vs. 29.7%). After 1:1 PSM, the TACE and non-TACE groups (122 patients each) had similar 5-year recurrence and OS rates (5-year recurrence: 72.9% vs. 74.2%; OS: 38.4% vs. 36.0%). By survival risk stratification based on ICC nomogram, only the patients in the lowest tertile (nomogram scores ≥77) benefited from adjuvant TACE (TACE vs. non-TACE groups: 90.4% vs. 95.9% for 5-year recurrence; 21.3% vs. 6.2% for 5-year OS).

Conclusion.

Adjuvant TACE following liver resection might be suitable for ICC patients with high ICC nomogram scores (≥77).

Implications for Practice:

The accurate predictive performance of the established prognostic nomogram for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) following liver resection was reconfirmed in an independent cohort with 553 patients. Based on the survival risk stratification using the nomogram, adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization following liver resection might be suitable only for ICC patients with high scores from the nomogram.     

化生性乳腺癌预后影响因素分析与预后模型构建

目的:分析对比中国和美国化生性乳腺癌(metaplastic breast carcinoma,MBC)患者的临床病理特征和预后影响因素,并构建列线图来预测MBC患者的3年和5年生存率。方法:以SEER数据库中提取的673例患者作为建模集,采用Cox等比例回归模型分析确定MBC的独立预后因素,然后将这些因素纳入并构建列线图模型,然后以我院的36例MBC患者作为验证集进行外部验证。结果:建模集和验证集的临床病理特征除年龄、肿瘤分级、是否第一原发肿瘤及N分期外无明显差异。单因素及多因素分析结果显示,所有患者中,年龄、是否化疗、T分期、N分期以及M分期均是MBC患者预后的独立危险因素。将这些因素纳入并建立列线图预测模型。结论:列线图能准确预测我国MBC患者的预后情况,为临床的诊疗提供科学依据。     

鼻咽癌小靶区调强放疗及化疗的远期疗效分析

目的 分析鼻咽癌(NPC)缩小临床靶区调强放疗(IMRT)的长期疗效,为小靶区IMRT技术在NPC中应用提供依据。方法 2003-2007年接受IMRT的鼻咽癌患者413例,中位年龄45岁,男311例、女102例。按第6版AJCC分期标准Ⅰ期3例、Ⅱ期66例、Ⅲ期235例、Ⅳ_a期78例、Ⅳ_b期31例。336例患者接受了以铂类为基础的化疗。结果 随访率100%,5年总生存率、局部控制率、无区域复发生存率、无远处转移生存率和无瘤生存率分别为80%、93%、96%、81%和75%。多因素分析提示T分期、N分期、年龄是影响总生存的预后因素(P=0.001、0.001、0.002),T分期、N分期是无远处转移生存的预后因素(P=0.000、0.001)。进展期鼻咽癌患者中诱导化疗组5年总生存有高于无诱导化疗组趋势(78%∶68%,P=0.053),辅助化疗者5年无远处转移生存率低于无辅助化疗者(65%∶83%,P=0.003)。结论 鼻咽癌小靶区IMRT技术安全可靠,远期疗效理想。     

Intensity-modulated radiotherapy prolongs the survival of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma compared with conventional two-dimensional radiotherapy: A 10-year experience with a large cohort and long follow-up

BackgroundTo evaluate the survival benefit of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) compared with conventional two-dimensional radiotherapy (2D-CRT) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) using a large cohort with long follow-up.MethodsWe retrospectively analysed 7081 non-metastatic NPC patients who received curative IMRT or 2D-CRT from February 2002 to December 2011.ResultsOf the 7081 patients, 2245 (31.7%) were administered IMRT, while 4836 (68.3%) were administered 2D-CRT. At 5 years, the patients administered IMRT had significantly higher local relapse-free survival (LRFS), loco-regional relapse-free survival (LRRFS), progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) (95.6%, 92.5%, 82.1% and 87.4%, respectively) than those administered 2D-CRT (90.8%, 88.5%, 76.7% and 84.5%, respectively; p < 0.001). The distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) was higher for IMRT than 2D-CRT, with borderline significance (87.6% and 85.7%, respectively; p = 0.056). However, no difference was observed between IMRT and 2D-CRT in nodal relapse-free survival (NRFS; 96.3% and 97.4%, respectively; p = 0.217). Multivariate analyses showed that IMRT was an independent protective prognostic factor for LRFS, LRRFS and PFS, but not NRFS, DMFS or OS.ConclusionsIMRT provided an improved LRFS, LRRFS and PFS in both the early and advanced T classifications and overall stage for non-disseminated NPC compared with 2D-CRT. However, no significant advantage was observed in NRFS, DMFS or OS when IMRT was used.     

肺腺癌患者列线图预后模型的构建与验证

目的 基于SEER数据库的大样本数据,构建肺腺癌患者生存预后的列线图预测模型.方法 回顾性分析SEER数据库收集的2010—2015年诊断为肺腺癌患者的临床数据.根据影响肺腺癌患者预后的独立因素,采用Lasso Cox回归分析构建列线图模型.C指数和校准曲线评估列线图的判别和校准能力.使用NRI和DCA曲线评估列线图的...     

A novel prognostic nomogram based on microvascular invasion and hematological biomarkers to predict survival outcome for hepatocellular carcinoma patients

PurposeThis study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction in which combine clinical characteristics and hematological biomarkers in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of 807 HCC patients. All the clinical data of these patients were collected through electronic medical record (EMR). The independent predictive variables were identified by cox regression analysis. We tested the accuracy of the nomograms by discrimination and calibration, and then plotted decision curves to assess the benefits of nomogram-assisted decisions in a clinical context, and compared with the TNM staging systems and microvascular invasion (MVI) on HCC prognosis.ResultsThe primary cohort consisted of 545 patients with clinicopathologically diagnosed with HCC from 2008 to 2013, while 262 patients from 2014 to 2016 in external validation cohort. Variables included in the nomograms were TNM Stage, microvascular invasion (MVI), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and prothrombin time (PT). The C-index of nomogram was 0.768, which was superior than the C-index of TNM Stage (0.660, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.664, P < 0.001) alone in the primary cohort. In the validation cohort, the models had a C-index of 0.845, and were also statistically higher when compared to C-index values for TNM Stage (0.687, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.684, P < 0.001). Calibration curves showed adequate calibration of predicted and reported OS prediction throughout the range of HCC outcomes. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful than the TNM Stage and MVI alone. Moreover, patients were divided into three distinct risk groups for OS by the nomogram: low risk group, middle risk group and a high risk group, respectively.ConclusionThe nomogram presents more accurate and useful prognostic power, which could be used to predict OS for patients with HCC.     

美国癌症研究联合会第七版肿瘤分期对鼻咽癌放疗预后的影响

目的 观察美国癌症研究联合会( AJCC)第7版肿瘤分期标准对鼻咽癌常规放疗(CRT)和凋强放疗(IMRT)预后的影响.方法 用AJCC第7版肿瘤TNM分期标准对本院2004-2006年接受CRT和IMRT的鼻咽癌患者重新分期和分析预后.共1138例患者入组,CRT 790例,IMRT 348例.CRT和IMRT患者中位年龄分别为47岁和45岁(x2 =1.49,P=0.222),男女比例分别为580∶210和266∶82(x2=1.15,P=0.303),Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ期例数分别为0、41、488、261和5、65、176、102例(x2 =64.78,P=0.001).比较两种放疗的3年疗效,Kaplan-Meier法计算生存率并Logrank法检验.结果 3年随访率为96.0％.常规、IMRT患者中位随访时间分别为32、33个月,死亡例数分别为113、35例.N分期是影响常规、IMRT总生存和无远处转移生存的因素(x2 =6.50、13.60,P=0.038、0.004和X2=7.78、15.30,P=0.009、0.002),临床分期对CRT总生存有影响(x2=6.70,P=0.035)、对IMRT无远处转移生存有影响(x2=9.12,P=0.028).结论 第7版AJCCT分期仍不能满足准确判断鼻咽癌预后的需要,N分期是影响鼻咽癌总生存和无远处转移生存的重要预后因素.     

Development and validation of survival nomograms in colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastases underwent simultaneous surgical treatment of primary and metastatic lesions

Colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastases (CRSLM) can be treated by simultaneous surgery, that is the primary tumor and liver metastasis are removed at the same time. However, criteria for simultaneous surgery are underwent continuously modified and expanded. An appropriate selection of adequate candidates for simultaneous surgery is vital to get best benefits. A retrospective study including CRSLM patients underwent simultaneous surgical treatment was conducted. CRSLM patients from SEER database were screened as development set, while CRSLM patients in Harbin (China) were enrolled as validation set. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were applied as end-point. Variables were screen by LASSO-Cox regression, then Cox regression was applied to construct 1-, 3- and 5-year OS, and CSS nomograms. Nomograms were compared to TMN stage for survival prediction and evaluated by concordance indexes (C-indexes), Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). 1347 and 112 CRSLM patients were included in the development set and validation set respectively. Nine factors were found associated with OS and CSS, i.e., Age, Primary Site, Differentiation grade, Histology type, T stage, N stage, Tumor size, Chemotherapy, CEA. Compared to the TNM stage, OS nomogram in development set and validation set got C-indexes values of 0.701 vs 0.641, 0.670 vs 0.557 respectively. Meanwhile, compared to the TNM stage, CSS nomogram in development set and validation set got C-indexes values of 0.704 vs 0.649, 0.677 vs 0.569 respectively. AUC values of the OS and CSS nomograms were higher than the TNM stage, DCA showed the OS and CSS nomograms got more clinical net benefit than the TNM stage, in both the development set and validation set. Our nomograms for predicting survival might be helpful to identify the right CRSLM patients who can get most benefit from simultaneous surgery.