Time trend and age-period-cohort effects on gastric cancer incidence in Zaragoza and Navarre, Spain.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe time trends in gastric cancer incidence in Zaragoza and Navarre, and to investigate time period and birth cohort as determinants of such trends. DESIGN: Cases from two registries were grouped into five year intervals and the following were calculated: age specific and sex specific incidence rates, and the male to female ratio. Log linear models including age, period of diagnosis, and birth cohort were fitted. SETTING: The Zaragoza Cancer Registry covers the province of Zaragoza, which has a population of 824,776 (403,755 men and 421,021 women). The Navarre Cancer Registry covers the province of Navarre which has 512,512 inhabitants (254,786 men and 257,726 women). In both cases population figures were based on the late census. PATIENTS: These comprised incident cases of gastric cancer reported to the Zaragoza Cancer Registry in 1963-87 and to the Navarre Cancer Registry in 1973-87. MAIN RESULTS: Navarre registered higher adjusted and cumulative rates than Zaragoza for both sexes. In both provinces, there were relative declines in the rates for men and women of 3% and 4% respectively per year. In Zaragoza, the risk of developing stomach cancer fell in generations born between 1888 and 1933, and rose in subsequent birth cohorts in both sexes, while in Navarre the cohort effect showed an approximately linear risk for both sexes. Both provinces recorded increases in risk associated with cohorts born between 1933 and 1943. CONCLUSION: The incidence rates of gastric cancer fell in both Zaragoza and Navarre. The reason for the greater incidence of gastric cancer in Navarre remains unknown. Trends in rates seem to be mainly linked to birth cohort. Increases in risk in generations born after 1933 may be ascribable to nutritional deficiencies in the early years of life.     

Dietary vitamin K intakes are associated with hip fracture but not with bone mineral density in elderly men and women

BACKGROUND: Vitamin K has been associated with bone mineral density (BMD) and risk of hip fracture. The apolipoprotein (apo) E4 allele (APOE*E4) has been associated with bone fracture through a putative effect on vitamin K transport in blood. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to determine the associations between vitamin K intake, apo E genotype, BMD, and hip fracture in a population-based cohort of elderly men and women. DESIGN: Dietary vitamin K intake was assessed with a food-frequency questionnaire in 335 men and 553 women (average age: 75.2 y) participating in the Framingham Heart Study in 1988-1989. Incidence of hip fractures was recorded from 1988 to 1995. BMD at the hip, spine, and arm was assessed on 2 separate occasions (1988-1989 and 1992-1993). Comparisons between apo E genotype and BMD were made relative to E4 allele status (at least 1 epsilon4 allele compared with no epsilon4 allele). RESULTS: Individuals in the highest quartile of vitamin K intake (median: 254 microg/d) had a significantly lower fully adjusted relative risk (0.35; 95% CI: 0. 13, 0.94) of hip fracture than did those in the lowest quartile of intake (median: 56 microg/d). There were no associations between vitamin K intake and BMD in either men or women. No association was found between the E4 allele and BMD, and there were no significant interactions between the E4 allele and phylloquinone intake and BMD or hip fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Low vitamin K intakes were associated with an increased incidence of hip fractures in this cohort of elderly men and women. Neither low vitamin K intake nor E4 allele status was associated with low BMD.     

Metacarpal cortical area and risk of coronary heart disease: the Framingham Study

The objective of this study was to determine the relation between bone mass and the incidence of coronary heart disease in women and men. Participants included 2,059 cohort members of the Framingham Study (1,236 women and 823 men aged 47-80 years) who underwent posteroanterior hand radiography and were free from cardiovascular disease at baseline (1967-1970) and who were then followed for 30 years through the end of 1997 for the incidence of coronary heart disease. The incidence of coronary heart disease decreased from 15.65/1,000 person-years among women in the lowest metacarpal cortical area quartile to 11.76/1,000 person-years among women in the highest quartile (p(trend) = 0.03), and the inverse relation persisted after adjustment for confounders (highest vs. lowest quartile of metacarpal cortical area: hazard ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.00; p(trend) = 0.03). In contrast, no association was present in men (highest vs. lowest quartile of metacarpal cortical area: hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.84, 1.56; p(trend) = 0.55).     

Ex-smokers and risk of hip fracture.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the reversibility of the effect of smoking on hip fracture incidence rates. METHODS: A 3-year follow-up cohort study was conducted involving 35,767 adults 50 years of age or older. Of these individuals, 421 suffered a hip fracture. RESULTS: Among participants less than 75 years of age, the relative risk (RR) of hip fracture was elevated for ex-smokers, even for those who had quit smoking more than 5 years previously (men: RR = 4.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2, 15.3; women: RR = 1.3, 95% CI = 0.6, 3.0), but was not as high as that for current smokers (men: RR = 5.0, 95% CI = 1.5, 16.9; women: RR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.2, 3.1). CONCLUSIONS: The effect of smoking on risk of hip fracture was not reversed completely 5 years after smoking cessation.     

The AIDS epidemic among Spanish drug users: a birth cohort-associated phenomenon.

OBJECTIVES: In Spain the number of new acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases among injection drug users continues to rise. The time trend up to 1994 has been analyzed, with special attention paid to the different generations. METHODS: The source for injection drug use-related cases was the Spanish AIDS Register. Independent analyses of annual specific rates were run for each sex with the use of an age-period-cohort log-linear model. RESULTS: After adjustment for age and year of diagnosis, AIDS incidence related to injection drug use is associated with specific birth cohorts. Rising values are observed in the successive generations born during the 1950s, peaking in men born in 1962 and women born in 1964. In subsequent cohorts, there is a marked falloff in incidence for both sexes, but this decline is seen to halt in men from the 1972 birth cohort onwards. The overall period effect is upward, yet the trend flattens in the last years. There is a pronounced age effect with maximum values in men and women at ages 29 and 27, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It is essential to urge avoidance of risk behaviors in new generations.     

Variations in the risk of disability pension in Norway 1970-99. A gender-specific age-period-cohort analysis

AIMS: A study was undertaken to investigate whether cohort or period effects could explain the varying and generally increasing incidence of disability pension in Norway between 1970 and 1999. METHODS: The study used data from a complete national register of new disability cases in Norway, including all cases of disability pension in the 16-60 age group categorized according to age and gender for each year from 1970 to 1999. The population at risk was defined for each year from census data and number of individuals already receiving disability pension. Data were organized in five-year age groups, five-year time periods and corresponding overlapping nine-year birth cohorts. Age- and gender-specific rates were displayed graphically for periods and cohorts. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted for age periods and age cohorts. Finally a combined age, period, and cohort model was applied. RESULTS: The overall incidence was 7.4/1,000 non-disabled persons per year for women and 6.0/1,000 for men. For women 52.1% of the cases were in the 51-60 age group, whereas the corresponding figure for men was 57.6%. Statistical analysis showed an increasing trend for both genders, more pronounced for women than men. All time periods deviated significantly from the trend, either upwards or downwards. Age-cohort models showed less variation, but recent cohorts had higher than expected rates, especially for men. CONCLUSIONS: Further studies should investigate why Norwegian women were more affected by the period effects than men. An increasing incidence of disability pension among recent cohorts is a major challenge for the Norwegian welfare system.     

Trends in mortality from lung cancer in Mexico, 1980-2000]

OBJECTIVE: To analyze trends in age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates in Mexico for the period of 1980 through 2000. METHOD: The trends were assessed using the adjusted rates of mortality from lung cancer, year of death, year of birth, age at death, state, and standard population. The standardized mortality rate and the index of potential years of life lost were used to compare incidence and premature deaths. The standardized mortality rate was analyzed by age groups according to the age at death (30-74 years), five-year observation period (1980-1999), and birth cohort (1910-1950). Nonparametric Spearman correlations were calculated for per capita tobacco consumption, social marginalization, and emigration. RESULTS: The adjusted mortality rate from lung cancer declined from 7.91 per 100 000 in 1989 to 5.96 per 100 000 in 2000. This pattern correlated with the reduction in per capita tobacco consumption, from 2.145 kg in 1959 to 0.451 kg in 1982. The latent period for the appearance of lung cancer in Mexico was 30 years. The male:female ratio was 2.4:1. The highest adjusted mortality rate was found in men who were 70-74 years old at the time of death. The adjusted mortality rates were low among the cohorts of persons born in 1945 or later, and those rates declined over the 1980-2000 period. The index of potential years of life lost and the incidence of premature death were greater among men. The mortality rates for the cohorts of men born between 1915 and 1940 showed a slight decline over the 1980-2000 period; beginning with men born in 1944 the rates increased slightly, mainly among men 30-34 and 35-39 years old at the time of death. For women the adjusted mortality rates were highest among those 75 or older; the rates gradually declined among the women born between 1945 and 1960, with the largest decrease among women 30-34 years old. The adjusted mortality rates varied according to the five-year observation period, the year of death, and birth cohort and gender. The correlation coefficient for the adjusted mortality rate by state and social marginalization was -0.70 (P = 0.00). There was no statistically significant correlation with the index of emigration (P = 0.56). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from lung cancer has declined in Mexico. Morbidity and premature death due to lung cancer are greater in the states of northern Mexico.     

Dietary intakes of arachidonic acid and alpha-linolenic acid are associated with reduced risk of hip fracture in older adults

PUFA are hypothesized to influence bone health, but longitudinal studies on hip fracture risk are lacking. We examined associations between intakes of PUFA and fish, and hip fracture risk among older adults (n = 904) in the Framingham Osteoporosis Study. Participants (mean age ~75 y at baseline) were followed for incident hip fracture from the time they completed the baseline exam (1988-1989) until December 31, 2005. HR and 95% CI were estimated for energy-adjusted dietary fatty acid exposure variables [(n-3) fatty acids: α-linolenic acid (ALA), EPA, DHA, EPA+DHA; (n-6) fatty acids: linoleic acid, arachidonic acid (AA); and the (n-6):(n-3) ratio] and fish intake categories, adjusting for potential confounders and covariates. Protective associations were observed between intakes of ALA (P-trend = 0.02) and hip fracture risk in a combined sample of women and men and between intakes of AA (P-trend = 0.05) and hip fracture risk in men only. Participants in the highest quartile of ALA intake had a 54% lower risk of hip fracture than those in the lowest quartile (Q4 vs. Q1: HR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.26-0.83). Men in the highest quartile of AA intake had an 80% lower risk of hip fracture than those in the lowest quartile (Q4 vs. Q1: HR = 0.20; 95% CI = 0.04-0.96). No significant associations were observed among intakes of EPA, DHA, EPA+DHA, or fish. These findings suggest dietary ALA may reduce hip fracture risk in women and men and dietary AA may reduce hip fracture risk in men.     

Incapacidad permanente y mortalidad prematura en una cohorte de afiliados a la Seguridad Social en España, 2004-2015

ObjectiveTo describe a surveillance and monitoring system based on the analysis of the incidence rate of permanent disability (PD) and premature mortality (PM) in a sample of members of the Spanish Social Security.MethodStudy of three birth cohorts (1950-1959, 1960-1969 and 1970-1979) of people affiliated to the general Social Security system, included in the Continuous Sample of Labour Lives, who has been active for at least one day between 2004 and 2015 (N = 753,341). For each cohort, the annual incidence rates of PD and MP were estimated according to occupation and economic activity in women and men.ResultsBetween 2004 and 2015 the rates of PI and MP showed higher values in men with respect to women in practically all cohorts of births, occupations and economic activities groups. The trend throughout the observation period was increasing, both in the incidence of PD and PM in men and women, for the three birth cohorts and for all occupational categories.ConclusionsThe results derived from this work allows the continuous monitoring of the temporal evolution of the incidence of permanent disability and premature mortality in a representative sample of social security affiliates.     

Leisure time physical activity and risk of non-vertebral fracture in men and women aged 55?years and older: the Troms? Study

Our aim was to examine associations between leisure time physical activity and risk of non-vertebral fractures in men and women aged ≥55 years, with focus on the anatomical fracture location. Self-reported physical activity was registered in 3,450 men and 4,072 women aged 55-97 years at baseline in the Troms? Study, Norway, in 1994-1995. Non-vertebral fractures were registered through December 31, 2009. During 75,546 person-years at risk, 1,693 non-vertebral fractures were identified. Risk of any non-vertebral fracture decreased with increasing physical activity level in men (P (trend) = 0.006) and non-significantly in women (P (trend) = 0.15), after adjustment for age, body mass index, height, smoking, and previous fracture. The reduced fracture risk was due to a reduced risk in the weight-bearing skeleton, particular at the hip, whereas risk of fracture in the non-weight-bearing skeleton was not related to physical activity. At weight-bearing sites, an inverse relationship between physical activity and fracture risk was present in both sexes (P (trend) ≤ 0.013). Compared with sedentary subjects, the most active men and women had respectively 37% (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.45, 0.88) and 23% (HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.95) reduced fracture risk in the weight-bearing skeleton. Physical activity is associated with reduced fracture risk at weight-bearing sites, with no associations at non-weight-bearing sites, in both sexes. Habitual physical activity is an important amendable approach to prevent hip fracture.     

Are children with birth defects at higher risk of childhood cancers?

Birth defects may influence the risk of childhood cancer development through a variety of mechanisms. The rarity of both birth defects and childhood cancers makes it challenging to study these associations, particularly for the very rare instances of each. To address this limitation, the authors conducted a record linkage-based cohort study among Texas children born between 1996 and 2005. Birth defects in the cohort were identified through the Texas Birth Defects Registry, and children who developed cancer were identified by using record linkage with Texas Cancer Registry data. Over 3 million birth records were included; 115,686 subjects had birth defects, and there were 2,351 cancer cases. Overall, children with a birth defect had a 3-fold increased risk of developing cancer (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 3.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.65, 3.50), with germ cell tumors (IRR = 5.19, 95% CI: 2.67, 9.41), retinoblastomas (IRR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.21, 4.16), soft-tissue sarcomas (IRR = 2.12, 95% CI: 1.09, 3.79), and leukemias (IRR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.75) having statistically significant elevated point estimates. All birth defect groups except for musculoskeletal had increased cancer incidence. Untangling the strong relation between birth defects and childhood cancers could lead to a better understanding of the genetic and environmental factors that affect both conditions.     

The effects of specific medical conditions on the functional limitations of elders in the Framingham Study.

OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this study was to identify associations between specific medical conditions in the elderly and limitations in functional tasks; to compare risks of disability across medical conditions, controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity; and to determine the proportion of disability attributable to each condition. METHODS. The subjects were 709 noninstitutionalized men and 1060 women of the Framingham Study cohort (mean age 73.7 +/- 6.3 years). Ten medical conditions were identified for study: knee osteoarthritis, hip fracture, diabetes, stroke, heart disease, intermittent claudication, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depressive symptomatology, and cognitive impairment. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated for dependence on human assistance in seven functional activities. RESULTS. Stroke was significantly associated with functional limitations in all seven tasks; depressive symptomatology and hip fracture were associated with limitations in five tasks; and knee osteoarthritis, heart disease, congestive heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, were associated with limitations in four tasks each. CONCLUSIONS. In general, stroke, depressive symptomatology, hip fracture, knee osteoarthritis, and heart disease account for more physical disability in noninstitutionalized elderly men and women than other diseases.     

Water fluoride concentration and fracture of the proximal femur.

STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between water fluoride concentration and the incidence of hip fracture, since evidence on this is at present inconsistent. DESIGN--Numbers of hospital admissions for fractures of proximal femur were obtained from hospital activity analysis data for the years 1978-1982. The fracture rates were compared with water fluoride concentrations in 39 county districts of England and Wales (fluoride concentrations had been measured in these districts between 1969 and 1973 as part of the British Regional Heart Study). PATIENTS--During the study period, 4121 men and 16,272 women aged 45 years and over were discharged from hospital after hip fracture. RESULTS--Poor correlations were found between discharge rates and both total (r = 0.16, p = 0.34) and natural (r = 0.01, p = 0.95) water fluoride concentrations. CONCLUSIONS--Water fluoridation to levels of around 1 mg/litre is unlikely to reduce hip fracture incidence markedly in this country.     

Incidence of hypertension in the Framingham Study.

Incidence and trends in incidence of definite hypertension were analyzed based on 30 years follow-up of 5,209 subjects in the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Based on pooling of 15 two-year periods, hypertension incidence per biennium increased with age in men from 3.3 per cent at ages 30-39 to 6.2 per cent at ages 70-79, and in women from 1.5 per cent at ages 30-39 to 8.6 per cent at ages 70-79. No consistent trend in incidence rates was evident for either sex from the 1950s through the 1970s. The proportion of hypertensive subjects receiving antihypertensive medication has increased since 1954-58 and exceeded 80 per cent for both men and women ages 60-89 years in 1979-81. Incidence data presented in this report may serve as a baseline for assessing the impact of future public health efforts in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

Breast cancer trends among young women in the United States

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that exposures associated with industrialization have increased breast cancer risk among young women in recent decades in the United States despite data demonstrating declining breast cancer mortality in birth cohorts born after 1945. METHODS: Trends for in situ and invasive breast cancer incidence rates from 1975 through 2002 among white and black U.S. women ages 20 to 49 are evaluated by decade of age using linear regression analyses. RESULTS: Despite increasing rates of in situ breast cancer after 1980 reflecting increased use of mammography, invasive breast cancer rates declined for both white and black women under age 50. These declines are consistent with a decrease in birth cohort risk of breast cancer for women born after 1945. CONCLUSIONS: Invasive breast cancer incidence rates are not increasing in young U.S. women despite increases in mammography and trends in known risk factors (eg, reproductive factors) that would predict increasing risk.     

Trends in reproductive, smoking, and other chronic disease risk factors by birth cohort in a large occupational study

PURPOSE: To illustrate the value of using large cohort studies to identify birth cohort trends in several chronic disease risk factors.METHODS: In collaboration with the American Registry of Radiologic Technologists (ARRT) and the University of Minnesota, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) initiated a cohort study of radiologic technologists who were certified by ARRT for at least two years between 1926 and 1982. Over 90,000 technologists (nearly four-fifths female) from all 50 states responded to a mailed questionnaire on reproductive, medical, work, and lifestyle factors. Ten, mostly five-year, birth cohorts, from before 1920 through 1960 and later, were evaluated.RESULTS: In this population, the mean height of both men and women generally rose in each subsequent birth cohort. The proportion of men who smoked before age 18 fell among those born since the late 1920s. In contrast, the proportion of women smoking before age 18 rose among those born since the early 1950s, reaching 14.2% among those born in 1960 and later. The mean age at menarche fell, until leveling off at 12.5, among those born after 1940. Recent birth cohorts (since 1950) show among the highest mean ages at birth of first child (>26 yeras), highest rates of nulliparity at age 25 (>/=63%), and lowest mean parity levels (相似文献   

Time trends in incidence rates of first hip fracture in the Uppsala Health Care Region, Sweden, 1965-1983

Time trends from 1965 through 1983 for age-specific and age-standardized rates of first hospital admission for a proximal femur fracture were studied in the Uppsala Health Care Region, Sweden, using a centralized register for inpatient care. During the 19-year study period, 29,277 hospital admissions for a first hip fracture were recorded in this population of about 1.5 million persons. The total number of first hip fracture admissions per year increased for both sexes. Age-standardized admission rates for both cervical and trochanteric fractures increased in men (average change per year of 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively) in contrast to the decreased admission rate for cervical fractures (-1.6% per year) and a stable rate for trochanteric fractures (0.4% per year) in women. The cumulative rate of cervical or trochanteric fracture at ages 30-79 years increased 46% in men (from 42/1,000 population in 1965 to 61.5/1,000 population in 1983) in contrast to a 24% decrease in women (from 134/1,000 population in 1965 to 101.5/1,000 population in 1983). The female:male ratio of age-standardized incidence rates decreased for both types of fracture during the study period. This finding of stable or decreasing rates of hip fracture in women contrasts with the findings of most previous studies.     

Size at birth and coronary artery disease in a population with high birth weight

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies suggest a link between fetal and childhood growth and later coronary artery disease (CAD). The influence of adult body size on the relation between birth size and CAD has not been thoroughly studied. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between birth and adult sizes and CAD within a population with higher birth weight and a lower incidence of and mortality rate from CAD than those seen in other Scandinavian populations. DESIGN: Fatal or nonfatal CAD was ascertained in 2399 men and 2376 women born in the Greater Reykjavik area between 1914 and 1935. Birth size was obtained from the National Archives. Anthropometric measurements in adults were obtained from the randomized prospective Reykjavik Study. RESULTS: CAD was inversely related to birth length (P for trend = 0.029) in men but was not significantly related to birth weight or ponderal index (kg/m(3)). In men who were born short (< or = 50.5 cm) and who became tall adults (either 175-180.5 or > 180.5 cm), the odds ratios (95% CI) for CAD were 1.9 (1.1, 3.1) and 2.2 (1.2, 4.0), respectively, when compared with men in the reference group (those born 52.5-54.0 cm long). A U-shaped relation between birth size and CAD was found for women. CONCLUSIONS: Size at birth has an effect on CAD, but the effect is modified by adult body size. This confirms that environmental factors operate in both the prenatal and postnatal periods with regard to the development of CAD. The large birth size seen among Icelanders may explain the lower incidence and mortality rate of CAD in Iceland than are seen in other white populations.     

State firearm laws and rates of suicide in men and women

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the associations of state laws restricting firearms and incidence rates of suicide in men and women using a cross-sectional design. METHODS: States were divided into three categories based on the restrictiveness of their firearm laws: restrictive (n =8); modest (n =22); and unrestrictive (n =20). State suicide incidence rates stratified by gender were compared using Poisson regression analyses that controlled for measures of race/ethnicity, income, and urbanization. Analyses were based on 2000 census data and state suicide data from 1999 and 2000. RESULTS: In the analysis of women, compared to states with restrictive firearm laws, there were higher suicide incidence rate ratios (IRR) in states with modest (IRR=1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-2.01) and unrestrictive laws (IRR=1.55; 95% CI, 1.23-1.95). The analysis of men showed comparable results: modest firearm laws (IRR=1.51; 95% CI, 1.27-1.79); unrestrictive firearm laws (IRR=1.49; 95% CI, 1.23-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: Results support the hypothesis that state restrictions on firearms have the potential to reduce the suicide rate. Findings do not support a hypothesis that greater firearm restrictions are associated with the substitution of alternative methods of suicide. Firearms appear to be a comparable exposure for suicide in men and women. Although men are more likely to use firearms in suicide than women, this difference may merely reflect more frequent gun ownership among men.