Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany

In his article with the provocative title "Are Recessions Good for Your Health?", Ruhm (J. Health Econ. 21(4) (2000) 659) has found robust and consistent evidence that the total mortality rate, age-specific mortality rates as well as most specific mortality causes are pro-cyclical. His finding that high unemployment rates are associated with lower mortality and vice versa stands in stark contrast to Brenner's earlier work, who found the opposite effect, possibly after a time lag. Ruhm controls for state-specific effects in a panel of US states over the period 1972-1991, whereas Brenner's work is based on time-series analysis. Extending and improving upon Ruhm's original analysis, we analyse the effect of state unemployment and economic growth rates on mortality in the states of Germany over the period 1980-2000, both in a static and a dynamic econometric model. Controlling for state-specific effects, we find evidence that aggregate mortality rates for all age groups taken together as well as most specific age groups are lower in recessions. The same is true for mortality from cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and influenza, motor vehicle accidents and suicides, but not for necessarily for other specific mortality causes. In particular, there is never a statistically significant effect on homicides, other external effects and malignant neoplasms. There are also few differences apparent between the effect on male and female mortality. If we do not control for state-specific effects, then we often arrive at the opposite result with higher unemployment being associated with higher mortality. This suggests that a failure to control for time-invariant state-specific effects leads to omitted variable bias, which would erroneously suggest that mortality rates move counter-cyclically. Overall, we can confirm Ruhm's main finding for another country: recessions lower some, but not all, mortality rates in the case of Germany.     

Lack of association between vaccination rates and excess mortality in Cyprus during the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundIt has been claimed that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, a claim that contributes to vaccine hesitancy. We examined whether all-cause mortality has actually increased in Cyprus during the first two pandemic years, and whether any increases are associated with vaccination rates.MethodsWe calculated weekly excess mortality for Cyprus between January 2020 and June 2022, overall and by age group, using both a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM) adjusted for mean daily temperature, and the EuroMOMO algorithm. Excess deaths were regressed on the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths and on weekly first-dose vaccinations, also using a DLNM to explore the lag-response dimension.Results552 excess deaths were observed in Cyprus during the study period (95% CI: 508–597) as opposed to 1306 confirmed COVID-19 deaths. No association between excess deaths and vaccination rates was found overall and for any age group except 18–49 years, among whom 1.09 excess deaths (95% CI: 0.27–1.91) per 10,000 vaccinations were estimated during the first 8 weeks post-vaccination. However, detailed cause-of-death examination identified just two such deaths potentially linked to vaccination, therefore this association is spurious and attributable to random error.ConclusionsExcess mortality was moderately increased in Cyprus during the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily as a result of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths. No relationship was found between vaccination rates and all-cause mortality, demonstrating the excellent safety profile of COVID-19 vaccines.     

Short-term mortality following COVID-19 vaccination in Bologna,Italy: a one-year study

The main objective of the study is to assess whether there is an increased risk of mortality in the days following the administration of COVID-19 vaccines in Bologna Health Authority in the first year of COVID-19 vaccination campaign. A secondary objective was to describe causes of deaths occurred in the days after vaccination. We conducted a retrospective observational study on all residents of Bologna Health Authority who received at least one COVID-19 vaccination dose from December 27, 2020 to December 31, 2021 and compared mortality in the 3, 7, 14 30 days after vaccination (risk interval) with the mortality in the period of the same length (3, 7, 14 and 30 days) beyond the 30th day after the last dose of vaccination (control interval). The cohort included 717,538 people. The mortality rate was 2.24 per 100 person-years during the 30 days risk interval vs 2.72 in the control interval with an adjusted incidence rate ratio equal to 0.76 (95% CI: 0.70–0.83, p < 0.001). The risk of mortality is significantly lower (p < 0.001) also in the 3, 7, 14 days risk intervals than in the control intervals. This study shows that there is no increase in mortality in the short-term period after COVID-19 vaccines.     

Impact of COVID-19 immunisation on COVID-19 incidence,hospitalisations, and deaths by age group in Germany from December 2020 to October 2021

BackgroundUtilising national surveillance data, we investigated the impact of the COVID-19 immunisation campaign on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality between December/2020 and October/2021 in Germany.MethodsWe compared patterns in immunisation coverage, incidence, hospitalisations, and deaths among 12–17, 18–59, and 60+ year-olds and examined these patterns within the context of anti-pandemic measures.ResultsCOVID-19 incidence increased in all age groups following the end of lockdown restrictions in March/2021, but as Germany experienced successive peaks in incidence, age groups with higher immunisation coverage experienced successively smaller peaks. Notwithstanding corresponding increases during periods of higher incidence, among those aged 60+ years, COVID-19 related hospitalisations and deaths declined considerably as immunisation coverage increased, despite circulation of virus variants known to cause more severe illness.ConclusionAlthough ecological in nature, this study allows us to demonstrate clear patterns of decline in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Germany during the course of the immunisation campaign.     

Barriers to vaccination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control: experience from the United States

To date,the United States (U.S.) has been the most heavily impacted country by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).By November 30,2020,when this paper was w...     

Finding the way forward: COVID-19 vaccination progress in Germany,Austria and Switzerland

Objectives: This paper presents an overview of the procurement and deployment of COVID-19 vaccinations in Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) from the success of the first vaccine trials until the end of August 2021. Data regarding vaccination procurement and deployment is presented, followed by an analysis of the challenges these countries face in improving their vaccination rates.Methods: A review and analysis of available data from the DACH countries was conducted. Data was collected from official government sources whenever possible and supplemented by information from international databases and local reports. The data was analyzed to identify common patterns as well as divergences across the DACH region, especially as they relate to vaccine hesitancy and health policy.Results: Following initial global supply problems, the DACH countries were largely successful at administering vaccinations to their populations. However, by the end of August 2021 their vaccination progress had plateaued. This was primarily due to vaccine hesitancy in the region, which is correlated with a multitude of complex factors. These factors need to be better understood before this issue can be effectively addressed. Unlike other countries, the DACH countries have not (yet) used financial incentives or mandates to increase vaccination rates.Conclusions: The DACH countries displayed effective governance in their deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, but vaccine hesitancy is slowing progress. Due to various social and political factors, Germany, Austria and Switzerland have not been able to employ effective policy levers to overcome this barrier and a more nuanced strategy will have to be developed.Public Interest Summary: Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) were largely successful at procuring COVID-19 vaccine doses and administering them to their populations. After the first doses were acquired, their vaccination rates continued to steadily rise, but progress began to slow down substantially by August 2021 due in part to vaccine hesitancy. Unlike in other countries, the DACH governments have not been able to implement vaccine mandates to try and overcome this issue due to their specific political and social circumstances. A deeper understanding of the factors driving vaccine hesitancy in the region will be required before effective solutions can be found.     

Impact of reduced human papillomavirus vaccination coverage rates due to COVID-19 in the United States: A model based analysis

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly affected utilization of preventative health care, including vaccines. We aimed to assess HPV vaccination rates during the pandemic, and conduct a simulation model-based analysis to estimate the impact of current coverage and future pandemic recovery scenarios on disease outcomes. The model population included females and males of all ages in the US. The model compares pre-COVID vaccine uptake to 3 reduced coverage scenarios with varying recovery speed. Vaccine coverage was obtained from Truven Marketscan™. Substantially reduced coverage between March-August 2020 was observed compared to 2018–2019. The model predicted that 130,853 to 213,926 additional cases of genital warts; 22,503 to 48,157 cases of CIN1; 48,682 to 110,192 cases of CIN2/3; and 2,882 to 6,487 cases of cervical cancer will occur over the next 100 years, compared to status quo. Providers should plan efforts to recover HPV vaccination and minimize potential long-term consequences.     

瑞丽市2021年7—11月COVID-19境外输入病例分子流行病学分析

目的  分析瑞丽市境外陆路输入COVID-19病例的流行特征和基因组特征,为云南省边境疫情防控工作提供参考依据。方法  收集2021年7月至11月瑞丽市境外陆路输入SARS-CoV-2感染者相关信息,对流行病学特征进行统计分析;筛选40例阳性样本使用Illumina公司二代测序平台进行高通量测序,分析基因分型情况及变异特征。结果  研究期间瑞丽市累计报告SARS-CoV-2感染者796例,年龄范围1~85岁, 年龄M(IQR)为28.5(10)岁;男女性别比4.61∶1;职业以商业服务49.75%(396/796)为主;轻型、普通型占比95.60%。获得的34例测序结果按照Nextstrain分型法可分为3个型,24例属于21A(Delta)分支,9例属于21I(Delta)分支,1例属于20I(Alpha, V1)分支。结论  本研究中的病例病毒基因分型主要分为三大支系且互相之间有一定差异,其中大部分为Delta株。应继续落实好边境管控措施,持续对境外输入病例进行病毒变异监测,以评估变异株对云南省疫情防控现状的威胁。     

Reducing the rates of household transmission: The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in healthcare workers with a known household exposure

ObjectiveTo determine the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on infection rates in healthcare workers (HCWs) with a household exposure.MethodsRetrospective cohort study 8410 HCWs (400 fully vaccinated, 1645 partially vaccinated, 6365 unvaccinated), employed by a large integrated healthcare system in the southeastern United States, tested for SARS-CoV-2 between January 1 and February 26, 2021.ResultsBenefit of vaccination persisted even with household exposure, with unvaccinated HCWs being 3.7 to 7.7 times more likely to be infected than partially or fully vaccinated HCW with positive household contacts respectively (partial OR = 3.73, 95% CI 2.17 – 6.47; full OR = 7.67, CI 2.75 – 21.35). Whereas 89.4% of unvaccinated COVID-positive HCWs with known household exposures were symptomatic, 50% of fully vaccinated HCWs had symptoms, reducing risk of secondary spread from and between HCWs.ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccination provided protection against infection even amongst healthcare workers with close household contact, and after adjusting for community prevalence.     

Serologic responses to COVID-19 vaccination in children with history of multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C)

Understanding the serological responses to COVID-19 vaccination in children with history of MIS-C could inform vaccination recommendations. We prospectively enrolled seven children hospitalized with MIS-C and measured SARS-CoV-2 binding IgG antibodies to spike protein variants longitudinally pre- and post-Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 primary series COVID-19 vaccination. We found that SARS-CoV-2 variant cross-reactive IgG antibodies variably waned following acute MIS-C, but were significantly boosted with vaccination and maintained for up to 3 months. We then compared post-vaccination binding, pseudovirus neutralizing, and functional antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) titers to the reference strain (Wuhan-hu-1) and Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among previously healthy children (n = 16) and children with history of MIS-C (n = 7) or COVID-19 (n = 8). Despite the breadth of binding antibodies elicited by vaccination in all three groups, pseudovirus neutralizing and ADCC titers were significantly reduced to the Omicron variant.     

Attitude toward a mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy and its determinants: Evidence from serial cross-sectional surveys conducted throughout the pandemic in Germany

BackgroundMandating vaccination against COVID-19 is often discussed as a means to counter low vaccine uptake. Beyond the potential legal, ethical, and psychological concerns, a successful implementation also needs to consider citizens’ support for such a policy. Public attitudes toward vaccination mandates and their determinants might differ over time and, hence, should be monitored.MethodsBetween April 2020 and April 2021, we investigated public support for mandatory vaccination policies in Germany and examined individual correlates, such as vaccination intentions, confidence in vaccine safety, and perceived collective responsibility, using a series of cross-sectional, quota-representative surveys (overall N = 27,509).ResultsSupport for a vaccination mandate declined before the approval of the first vaccine against COVID-19 in December 2020 and increased afterwards. However, at the end of April 2021, only half of respondents were in favor of mandatory regulations. In general, mandates were endorsed by those who considered the vaccines to be safe, anticipated practical barriers, and felt responsible for the collective. On the contrary, perceiving vaccination as unnecessary and weighing the benefits and risks of vaccination was related to lower support. Older individuals and males more often endorsed vaccination mandates than did younger participants and females. Interestingly, there was a gap between vaccination intentions and support for mandates, showing that the attitude toward mandatory vaccination was not only determined by vaccination-related factors such as vaccine safety or prosocial considerations.ConclusionsBecause of low public support, mandatory vaccination against COVID-19 should be considered a measure of last resort in Germany. However, if removing barriers to vaccination and educational campaigns about vaccine safety and the societal benefits of high vaccination uptake are not sufficient for increasing vaccination uptake to the required levels, mandates could be introduced. In this case, measures to ensure and increase acceptance and adherence should be taken.     

Anaphylaxis rates following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in children and adolescents: Analysis of data reported to EudraVigilance

AimThe present study aimed to estimate the anaphylaxis rates following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in children and adolescents in Europe.MethodsWe retrieved data on 371 anaphylaxis cases following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in children ≤ 17 years old notified to EudraVigilance as of October 8, 2022. Overall, 27,120,512 doses of BNT162b2 vaccine and 1,400,300 doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine have been delivered to children during the study period.ResultsThe overall mean anaphylaxis rate was 12.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): 11.49–14.12] per 10⁶ mRNA vaccine doses [12.14 (95% CI: 6.37–17.91) per 10⁶ doses for mRNA-1273 and 12.84 (95% CI: 11.49–14.19) per 10⁶ doses for BNT162b2]. Children 12–17 years old accounted for 317 anaphylaxis cases, followed by 48 cases in children 3–11 years old, and 6 cases in children 0–2 years old. Children 10–17 years old had a mean anaphylaxis rate of 13.52 (95% CI: 12.03–15.00) cases per 10⁶ mRNA vaccine doses and children 5–9 years old had a mean anaphylaxis rate of 9.51 (95% CI: 6.82–12.20) cases per 10⁶ mRNA vaccine doses. There were two fatalities, both in the 12–17 years age group. The fatal anaphylaxis rate was 0.07 cases per 10⁶ mRNA vaccine doses.ConclusionsAnaphylaxis is a rare adverse event after receiving an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in children. Continuous surveillance of serious adverse events is needed to guide vaccination policies as we move towards SARS-CoV-2 endemicity. Larger real-world studies on COVID-19 vaccination in children, using clinical case confirmation, are imperative.     

Association between metabolic syndrome and mortality in patients with COVID-19: A nationwide cohort study

ObjectivesWe investigated the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and mortality among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in Korea.MethodsWe analyzed 3876 individuals aged ≥ 20 years who were confirmed with COVID-19 from January 1 to June 4, 2020 based on the Korea National Health Insurance Service (NHIS)-COVID-19 database and had undergone health examination by NHIS between 2015 and 2017. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed.ResultsOf total participants, the prevalence of MetS was 21.0% (n = 815). During 58.6 days of mean follow-up, 3.1 % (n = 120) of the participants died. Compared to individuals without MetS, COVID-19 patients with MetS had a significantly increased mortality risk after adjusting for confounders in total participants (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.68, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–2.47) and women (HR: 2.41, 95 % CI: 1.17–4.96). A low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level in total participants (HR: 1.63, 95 % CI: 1.12–2.37) and hyperglycemia in women (HR: 1.97, 95 % CI: 1.01–3.84) was associated with higher mortality risk. The mortality risk increased as the number of MetS components increased among total participants and women (P for trend = 0.009 and 0.016, respectively). In addition, MetS groups had higher mortality risk in aged ≥ 60 years (HR: 1.60, 95 % CI: 1.07–2.39), and never-smokers (2.08, 1.21–3.59).ConclusionsThe presence of MetS and greater number of its components were associated with increased mortality risks particularly in female patients with COVID-19. Managing MetS may contribute to better outcomes of COVID-19.     

Effectiveness of adenovirus type 5 vectored and inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic COVID-19, COVID-19 pneumonia,and severe COVID-19 caused by the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant: Evidence from an outbreak in Yunnan,China, 2021

BackgroundIn partial response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, countries around the world are conducting large-scale vaccination campaigns. Real-world estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant are still limited. An outbreak in Ruili city of China provided an opportunity to evaluate VE against the Delta variant of two types of COVID-19 vaccines in use in China and globally – inactivated (CoronaVac and BBIBP-CorV) and adenovirus type 5 vectored (Convidecia) vaccines.MethodsWe estimated VE using a retrospective cohort study two months after the Ruili vaccination campaign (median: 63 days). Close contacts of infected people (Chinese nationality, 18 years and above) were included to assess VE against symptomatic Covid-19, COVID-19 pneumonia, and severe COVID-19. We calculated the relative risks (RR) of the outcomes for unvaccinated compared with fully vaccinated individuals. We used logistic regression analyses to estimate adjusted VEs, controlling for gender and age group (18–59 years and 60 years and over).We compared unvaccinated and fully vaccinated individuals on duration of RT-PCR positivity and Ct value.FindingsThere were 686 close contacts eligible for VE estimates. Adjusted VE of ad5-vectored vaccine was 61.5% (95% CI, 9.5–83.6) against symptomatic COVID-19, 67.9% (95%CI: 1.7–89.9) against pneumonia, and 100% (95%CI: 36.6–100) against severe/critical illness. For the two inactivated vaccines, combined VE was 74.6% (95% CI, 36.0–90.0) against symptomatic COVID-19, 76.7% (95% CI: 19.3–93.3) against pneumonia, and 100% (95% CI: 47.6–100) against severe/critical COVID-19. There were no statistically significant differences in VE between two inactivated vaccines for symptomatic COVID-19 and for pneumonia, nor were there statistically significant differences between inactivated and ad5-vectored VE in any of the three outcomes. The median durations of RT-PCR positivity were 17 days for fifteen people vaccinated with an inactivated vaccine, 18 days for forty-four people vaccinated with the Ad5 vectored vaccine, and 26 days for eleven unvaccinated individuals. InterpretationThese results provide reassuring evidence that the three vaccines are effective at preventing Delta-variant COVID-19 in short term following vaccination campaign, and are most effective at preventing more serious illness. The findings of reduced duration of RT-PCR positivity and length of hospital stay associated with full vaccination suggests potential saving of health-care system resources.     

COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring in the Republic of Korea: February 26, 2021 to April 30, 2021

ObjectivesOn February 26, 2021, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination was started for high-priority groups based on the recommendation of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices with 2 available COVID-19 vaccines (AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech) in Korea. This report provides a summary of adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination as of April 30, 2021.Methods Adverse events following immunization are notifiable by medical doctors to the Korea Immunization Management System (KIMS) under the national surveillance system. We analyzed all adverse events reports following COVID-19 vaccination to the KIMS from February 26 to April 30, 2021. Results In total, 16,196 adverse events following 3,586,814 administered doses of COVID-19 vaccines were reported in approximately 2 months (February 26 to April 30, 2021). Of these, 15,658 (96.7%) were non-serious adverse events, and 538 (3.3%) were serious adverse events, including 73 (0.5%) deaths. The majority of adverse events (n=13,063, 80.7%) were observed in women, and the most frequently reported adverse events were myalgia (52.2%), fever (44.9%), and headache (34.9%). Of the 73 deaths following the COVID-19 vaccination, none were related to the vaccines.ConclusionBy April 30, 3.6 million doses of the COVID 19 vaccine had been given in Korea, and the overwhelming majority of reports were for non-serious events. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency continues to monitor the safety of COVID-19 vaccination.     

Impact of prior vaccination with CovishieldTM and Covaxin® on mortality among symptomatic COVID-19 patients during the second wave of the pandemic in South India during April and May 2021: a cohort study

BackgroundCOVID-19 vaccines were authorised for emergency use to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. This study evaluated the effect of prior vaccination with either Oxford Astra Zeneca’s Covishield? or Bharath Biotech’s Covaxin® on mortality among symptomatic COVID-19 patients during the second wave of the pandemic in India.MethodologyIn this cohort study comprising of RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 patients presenting during April and May 2021, the effect of prior vaccination on mortality (primary outcome), need for hospitalization, oxygen therapy, non-invasive ventilation (NIV) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were assessed and expressed as risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsThe mean (SD) age of the cohort (n = 4183) was 46.3 (15.5) years; 17.9% (748/4183) had received at least one dose of Covishield? and 4.8% (201/4183) had received Covaxin®. Mortality was 0.2% (95% CI: 0.2% – 0.7%), 3.5% (1.9–5.2%), 6.2% (0.3–12%) and 12.9% (11.8–14.1%) among fully vaccinated (>2 weeks after two doses), partially vaccinated (>2 weeks after one dose or <2 weeks after two doses), indeterminate (<2 weeks after one dose) and unvaccinated patients respectively. The difference in mortality among unvaccinated vs. fully vaccinated was 12.7% (95% CI: 11.4–13.9%), unvaccinated vs. partially vaccinated was 9.4% (7.4–11.4%) and unvaccinated vs. indeterminate vaccinated was 6.8% (0.8–12.7%). On adjusted analysis, as compared to unvaccinated patients, at least one dose of vaccine reduced the need for hospitalization (RR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.35–0.47), oxygen (0.33; 0.27–0.40), NIV (0.23; 0.17–0.32), ICU admission (0.18; 0.12–0.27) and mortality (0.18; 0.11–0.29).ConclusionAmong symptomatic COVID-19 patients, prior vaccination with Covishield ? or Covaxin® impacted the severity of illness and reduced mortality during a period of widespread delta variant circulation. Full vaccination conferred greater protection than partial vaccination.     

Effectiveness of vaccines in preventing hospitalization due to COVID-19: A multicenter hospital-based case-control study,Germany, June 2021 to January 2022

We included 852 patients in a prospectively recruiting multicenter matched case-control study in Germany to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing COVID-19-associated hospitalization during the Delta-variant dominance. The two-dose VE was 89 % (95 % CI 84–93 %) overall, 79 % in patients with more than two comorbidities and 77 % in adults aged 60–75 years. A third dose increased the VE to more than 93 % in all patient-subgroups.