Cohort patterns in mortality trends among the elderly in seven European countries, 1950-99

BACKGROUND: Secular trends in old-age mortality are of crucial importance to population ageing. For the understanding and prediction of these trends, it is important to determine whether birth cohort effects, i.e. long-lasting effects of exposures earlier in life, are important in determining mortality trends up to old age. This study aimed to identify and describe cohort patterns in trends in mortality among the elderly (>60 years of age) in seven European countries. METHODS: A standard age-period-cohort analysis was applied to all-cause and cause-specific mortality data by 5-year age groups and sex, for Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, in the period 1950-99. RESULTS: Cohort patterns were identified in all countries, for both the sexes and virtually all causes of death. They strongly influenced the trends in all-cause mortality among Danish, Dutch, and Norwegian men, and the trends in mortality from infectious diseases, lung cancer (men only), prostate cancer, breast cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). All-cause mortality decline stagnated among Danish, Dutch, and Norwegian male birth cohorts born between 1890 and 1915, among French men born after 1920, and among women from all countries born after 1920. Where all-cause mortality decline stagnated, cohort patterns in mortality from lung cancer, COPD, and to a lesser extent ischaemic heart diseases, were unfavourable as well. For infectious diseases, stomach cancer, and cerebrovascular diseases, mortality increased among cohorts born before 1890, and decreased strongly thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Cohort effects related to factors such as living conditions in childhood and smoking in adulthood were important in determining the recent trends in mortality among the elderly in seven European countries.     

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands between 1980 and 2009

Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the US and the UK. This work aimed to analyse recent trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands. Analysis was of annual all circulatory, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2009 for the Netherlands. Data were stratified by sex and 10-year age group (age 35–85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in the trend were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression. For almost all age and sex groups examined the rate of IHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Netherlands has more than halved between 1980 and 2009. The decline in mortality from both IHD and cerebrovascular disease is continuing for all ages and sex groups, with anacceleration in the decline apparent from the late 1990s/early 2000s. The decline in age-specific all circulatory, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates continues for all age and sex groups in the Netherlands.     

Trends in infant mortality inequalities in the Americas: 1955-1995

STUDY OBJECTIVE:s: To describe overall and income related trends in infant mortality inequalities in the Region of the Americas from 1955 to 1995. DESIGN: Infant mortality rates (IMRs) were computed and their trends assessed by ordinary least squares. Overall trends in IMR inequalities among countries were analysed by comparing 10 year period IMRs, Gini coefficients, and Lorenz curves. Income related trends in IMR inequalities were assessed using 10 year period IMR ratios between the highest and the lowest quintiles of the per capita gross national product (GNP) distributions (adjusted for purchasing power). SETTING: Aggregated country data were used for all countries with over 200 thousand inhabitants (33 geopolitical units). The 10 year period midpoint IMR estimates used for the 1955-1995 time series were those published by the United Nations in 1997. MAIN RESULTS: IMRs decreased from 90.34 to 31.31 per 1000 live births between 1955 and 1995 at an average of 15.3 every 10 years. In contrast, Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients were similar for the five 10 year periods. After grouping by adjusted GNP distribution, a similar decreasing trend of IMR was observed in all groups. The rate ratio between the group at the lowest quintile and that at the highest quintile ranged from 4 to 5. The analysis of variance for repeated observations showed that there is a significant reduction in the IMR (F=130.18; p<0.01), that trends did not differ significantly among groups (F=1.16; p=0.32), and that they were approximately linear (F=155.83; p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Despite a sizable reduction in the infant mortality, whether or not income related, levels of IMR inequality among countries have remained almost constant between 1955 and 1995 in the Region of the Americas. Further analysis and focused interventions are needed to tackle the challenges of reducing these persistent mortality inequalities.     

Mortality of 1880-1980 generations in Switzerland: a rereading of evolution of mortality based on longitudinal data

OBJECTIVES: Seek to explain the declining mortality rates observed in Switzerland using a different approach from conventional period analyses. METHODS: Analysis of the mortality rates for cohorts born between 1880 and 1980 in Switzerland. RESULTS: While the mortality transition was a constant feature of the 20th century, mortality receded most sharply among the 1900 to 1940 birth cohorts. Life expectancy gains were much lower for the pre-1900 cohorts, while early trends for the post-1940 cohorts point to a slowdown in the rate of mortality decline. These findings may be connected with the social and health conditions in which the different cohorts lived. CONCLUSION: In contrast to the cross-sectional analysis, the longitudinal approach shows that the decline in mortality suddenly stops with the 1940 cohort.     

Trends in chronic disease mortality in the Northern Territory Aboriginal population, 1997‐2004: using underlying and multiple causes of death

Objective: To assess trends in chronic disease mortality in the Aboriginal population of the Northern Territory (NT), using both underlying and multiple causes of death. Method: Death registration data from 1997 to 2004, were used for the analysis of deaths from five chronic diseases; ischaemic heart disease (IHD), diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), renal failure and stroke. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the average annual change in mortality rates for each of the five diseases. Chi squared tests were conducted to determine associations between the five diseases. Results: The five chronic diseases contributed to 49.3% of all Aboriginal deaths in the NT. The mortality rate ratio of NT Aboriginal to all Australian death rates from each of the diseases ranged from 4.3 to 13.0, with the lowest rate ratio for stroke and highest for diabetes. There were significant statistical associations between IHD, diabetes, renal failure and stroke. The mortality rates for diabetes, COPD and stroke declined at estimated annual rates for NT Aboriginal males of 3.6%, 1.0% and 11.7% and for Aboriginal females by 3.5%, 6.1% and 7.1% respectively. There were increases in mortality rates for Aboriginal males and females for IHD and a mixed result for renal failure. Conclusion: NT Aboriginal people experience high chronic disease mortality, however, mortality rates appear to be declining for diabetes, COPD and stroke. The impact of chronic disease on mortality is greater than previously reported by using a single underlying cause of death. The results highlight the importance of integrated chronic disease interventions.     

Association of body mass index measured in childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood with risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke: findings from 3 historical cohort studies

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether early life body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) is associated with adult cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the association of early life BMI with the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. DESIGN: The association between early life BMI and risk of adult mortality from IHD and stroke was assessed in 3 historical cohort studies in which height and weight had been assessed by using standard procedures. Participants were traced and linked to national mortality data. Participants in the 3 cohorts were born between 1922 and 1937, 1927 and 1956, and 1928 and 1950 and were aged 2-15, 9-18, and 16-22 y, respectively, at the time of assessment of their height and weight. RESULTS: Participants in all 3 cohorts had mean BMIs similar to those reported for contemporary children and young adults, but fewer of the cohort participants were overweight or obese. BMI was not associated with future risk of IHD or stroke in any cohort. The pooled (all 3 cohorts) adjusted hazard ratio per SD of early life BMI was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.19) for IHD and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.08) for stroke. The pooled hazard ratio of IHD when participants who were overweight or obese for their age were compared with all other participants was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.91), and no association was found between overweight or obesity and stroke risk. The effects of BMI did not vary by cohort or by age. CONCLUSION: These results do not provide strong evidence that being overweight or obese in childhood is associated with future cardiovascular disease risk.     

Breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine 1963-2002: an age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE: To determine the reasons for the steady increase in breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine. METHODS: Age-period-cohort analysis, supplemented by analysis of historical fertility trends. RESULTS: Mortality from breast cancer has risen steadily in both countries over the past 40 years, although faster in Russia than in Ukraine. There are strong birth cohort effects, which are consistent with known changes in fertility. Death rates were highest among those born in the first half of the 20th century, declining among those born after the 1950s. There has been a decline in mortality among younger women since the mid 1990s, which may reflect improvements in treatment. CONCLUSION: The increase in breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine can largely be explained by known changes in fertility, while recent changes may reflect changes in treatment. Observed trends suggest that death rates from female breast cancer in the two countries are likely to stabilize or even decline in the future.     

Death from cardiovascular disease in Italy, 1972-1981: decline in mortality rates and possible causes

Mortality rates for cardiovascular disease vary widely between countries, and epidemiological patterns (trends in incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors, availability of medical care) are heterogeneous even among industrialized nations. We studied mortality from cardiovascular disease in Italy from 1972 to 1981 and compared mortality to trends in risk factors during the same period. Age-adjusted mortality rates for acute ischaemic heart disease (IHD) have increased in Italy from 1972 to reach a peak in 1978 (180.53/100,000 in males, 51.55/100,000 in females), then declined between 1978 and 1981, by 7% in males and 5% in females. The decline was more evident in males and in the younger age groups. Deaths from chronic IHD reached a peak in 1973 in females and in 1975 in males, then decreased, respectively by 24.8% and 35.7% until 1981. Mortality for cerebrovascular disease declined from 1972 to 1981 by 16.2% in males and 21.5% in females. Data from national statistics and sample surveys in different areas of Italy show an increase in total calorie intake, in animal proteins, fats and dairy products and raised average serum cholesterol levels plus an increase in smoking prevalence but a possible decline in blood pressure levels. The roles of hypertension treatment and of access to specialized medical care are discussed as possible contributors to the new declining trend of IHD, and the need is stressed for preventive strategies in health promotion.     

Infant mortality, season of birth and the health of older Puerto Rican adults

The increasing prevalence of heart disease and diabetes among aging populations in low and middle income countries leads to questions regarding the degree to which endogenous early life exposures (exposures in utero) are important determinants of these health conditions. We devised a test using infant mortality (IMR) to verify if season of birth is a good indicator of early life (in utero) conditions that precipitate adult onset of disease. We linked annual IMR at the municipality (municipio) level from the late 1920s to early 1940s with individual birth year and place using a representative sample of older Puerto Rican adults (n = 1447) from the Puerto Rican Elderly: Health Conditions (PREHCO) study. We estimated the effects of season of birth on adult heart disease and diabetes for all respondents and then for respondents according to whether they were born when IMR was lower or higher, controlling for age, gender, obesity, respondent's educational level, adult behavior (smoking and exercise) and other early life exposures (childhood health, knee height and childhood socioeconomic status (SES)). The pattern of effects suggests that season of birth reflects endogenous causes: (1) odds of heart disease and diabetes were strong and significant for those born during the lean season in years when IMR was lower; (2) effects remained consistent even after controlling for other childhood conditions and adult behavior; but (3) no seasonality effects on adult health for adults born when IMR was higher. We conclude that in this population of older Puerto Rican adults there is continued support that the timing of adverse endogenous (in utero) conditions such as poor nutrition and infectious diseases is associated with adult heart disease and diabetes. It will be important to test the validity of these findings in other similar populations in the developing world.     

Body mass index and cardiovascular disease mortality in Japan: the Ohsaki Study

OBJECTIVE: Although there is a clear positive association between obesity and the incidence and severity of cardiovascular disease, the association between underweight and cardiovascular disease is unclear. The objective of this study was to examine the relation between body mass index (BMI) and cardiovascular disease in Japan, where the proportion of the population that is underweight is relatively high. METHOD: A total of 43,916 Japanese adults (21,003 men and 22,913 women) aged 40 to 79 years who had no history of cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), or stroke participated in the baseline survey in 1994. Hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death due to total cardiovascular disease, all strokes, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and IHD were calculated according to BMI by using Cox's proportional hazards regression models. The 22.5-24.9 kg/m(2) BMI category was used as the reference category in all analyses. RESULTS: There were U-shaped associations between BMI and total cardiovascular disease, all stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and IHD mortality, and a J-shaped association between BMI and ischemic stroke mortality. Participants with a BMI <18.5 kg/m(2) had a significantly increased risk of total cardiovascular disease, all stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and IHD mortality, and the multivariate HR (95% CI) was 1.62 (1.19-2.19), 1.50 (1.02-2.21), 2.11 (1.07-4.17), 1.83 (1.11-3.01), respectively. CONCLUSION: Underweight was substantially associated with hemorrhagic stroke and IHD mortality in Japan, while obesity was associated with increased risk of total cardiovascular disease mortality and mortality from individual cardiovascular diseases.     

The decline of ischemic heart disease mortality in Texas

This is a study of the decline of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the State ofTexas, from 1970 to 1977. The data were collected and analyzed at three different levels: state, health service area (HSA), and county. The study was designed to test hypotheses pertaining to the role of the medical care system as a possible factor associated with the changing IHD mortality trends. The results suggest that factors such as emergency medical services (EMS), intensive care units (ICU) and coronary care units (CCUs) in hospitals, intensive care and coronary care beds and medical specialists are associated with the observed decline in heart disease mortality in Texas.     

Association between gross domestic product throughout the life course and old-age mortality across birth cohorts: parallel analyses of seven European countries, 1950-1999

Mortality levels of national populations have often been studied in relation to levels of gross domestic product (GDP) at time of death. Following the life course perspective, we assessed whether old-age mortality levels for subsequent cohorts are differentially associated with GDP levels prevailing at different ages of the cohorts. We used all-cause and cause-specific mortality data by sex, age at death (65-99), year at death (1950-1999), and year of birth (1865-1924) for Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Trends in national GDP per capita between 1865 and 1999 were reconstructed from historical national accounts data. Through Poisson regression analyses, we determined for each country both univariate and multivariate associations across five-year birth cohorts between mortality and GDP levels prevailing at time of death, and at earlier ages of the cohorts (i.e. 0-5, 6-19, 20-49, and 50-64). For the subsequent cohorts, levels of GDP at time of death were strongly inversely associated with all-cause mortality, especially among women, and among men in England and Wales, Finland, and France. In most countries, stronger associations were observed with GDP levels prevailing at earlier ages of the cohorts. After control for GDP at time of death, these associations remained. An independent association of GDP at earlier ages of the cohort was also observed for cause-specific mortality. The associations were negative for ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and stomach cancer. They were positive for prostate cancer, breast cancer, COPD (women), and lung cancer (women). GDP prevailing at ages 20-49 (men) and ages 50-64 (women) had the largest associations with old-age mortality. These findings suggest an independent, mostly negative effect of GDP prevailing at earlier ages of subsequent cohorts on old-age mortality. Socio-economic circumstances during adulthood and middle age seem more important in determining old-age mortality trends than those during infancy or childhood.     

Do changes in cardiovascular risk factors explain the increasing socioeconomic difference in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in Finland?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To estimate the extent to which changes in blood pressure, smoking, and serum cholesterol concentration explain the observed increase in socioeconomic differences in mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in Finland during the past 20 years. DESIGN: Predicted changes in mortality from IHD were calculated using logistic regression models with the risk factor levels assessed by cross sectional population surveys conducted in 1972, 1977, 1982, and 1987. The subjects included white collar and blue collar workers and farmers. The predicted changes were compared with the observed mortality changes in the same socioeconomic groups in the total population of the same geographical area. SETTING: North Karelia and Kuopio provinces, eastern Finland. PARTICIPANTS: 16,741 men and 16,389 women aged 30-59 randomly drawn from the population registers of the study areas. Mortality data were obtained from the total population in the same areas. MAIN RESULTS: In men, the changes in diastolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and smoking predicted a 28% decline in the mortality from IHD among white collar workers, a 30% decline among blue collar workers, and a 33% decline in farmers. Observed declines in the same socioeconomic groups were 61%, 40%, and 37%, respectively. In women, the predicted decline was 41% among white collar workers, 35% among blue collar workers, and 39% among farmers. The respective observed declines were 57%, 43%, and 20%. CONCLUSIONS: Less than half of the decline in IHD mortality among white collar men was explained by the risk factor changes, while they explained 75% of the decline among blue collar men and 89% of the decline among male farmers. Changes in risk factors did not explain the increasing difference in IHD mortality between the socioeconomic groups, especially among men.

 

     

The decline in the mortality rates of cervical cancer and a plausible explanation in Shandong, China

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study is to describe the temporal trends in mortality rates of cervical cancer in Shandong Province, China, and to elucidate their likely explanations. METHODS: Three retrospective surveys of all causes of death in 1970-1974, 1985-1989 and 1990-1992 in Shandong were carried out. An age-period-cohort analysis based on similar survey data from Qixia, a county in Shandong, from 1970 to 1994 was performed. A correlation analysis between prevalence of syphilis and cervical cancer mortality rates three decades later was conducted. A cross-sectional survey of risk factors for cervical cancer was conducted in 1991 in one city and 12 villages in the province. RESULTS: A marked decline in cervical cancer mortality rates was observed from 1970 to 1992 and in successive birth cohorts from 1892 to 1927, and rates remained relatively constant in subsequent birth cohorts through that of 1952. The decline in these rates was strongly correlated with a decline in positive serological tests for syphilis 32 years previously. The percentages of women with selected risk factors were lower in younger women (30-54 years) than in older women (55-69 years) in both cities and rural areas. CONCLUSION: These trends are compatible with a decrease in risk of exposure to sexually transmitted factors at an early age after the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, and a decline in lifetime duration of exposure to possible co-factors in successive birth cohorts who reached sexual maturity before that time.     

Trends in mortality from major diseases in Europe, 1980–1993

Trends in age-standardized death certification rates from all causes, coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular diseases, all neoplasms and lung cancer were analysed over the period 1980–1993 in 20 major European countries. There were steady and substantial declines of overall mortality in all western European countries for both sexes, although appreciable geographic differences persisted. These favourable trends reflect a decline in CHD mortality in most western countries, besides a persisting fall in cerebrovascular disease, and a substantial stability (with some decline in a few northern and central European countries) in cancer mortality. In contrast, in eastern European countries appreciable rises were registered in mortality from major causes of death considered for males. For females, only moderate declines were observed in Eastern Europe. In the early 1990s, overall mortality was 30 to 100% higher for males and 20 to 100% higher for females as compared to Western Europe. As indicated by the trends in lung cancer death rates, this reflects a major impact of the tobacco-related disease epidemic in subsequent cohorts, as well as more unfavourable lifestyle factors (i.e. aspects of diet, other environmental factors), and a delayed control of hypertension in Eastern Europe, together with a substantial excess of suicides, (road) accidents, homicides and alcohol-related diseases, and the delayed introduction of rational treatment for some conditions. An indication of reversal of mortality trends was evident in the early 1990s only in Poland. In conclusion, there is ample scope for intervention on avoidable mortality in eastern European countries.     

Variations in the pace of mortality decline in elderly in 7 Northwestern European countries between 1950-1999: the impact of smoking

OBJECTIVE: Examination of the variations in the pace of old-age (80+) mortality decline in 7 Northwestern European countries for the period 1950-1999, and the impact of smoking DESIGN: Retrospective. METHOD: The population mortality data of 7 Northwestern European countries were collated according to year of death for a 50 year period (1950-1999), single year of age (60+ and 80+) and sex. Both all-cause and non-smoking-related mortality were analysed. In addition, a comparison was made with the pace of mortality decline at younger age among the same cohorts. Regression and correlation analyses were used. RESULTS: Marked variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline were found between countries, periods and sexes. While mortality declines were constantly strong in France and England and Wales, modest declines or even increases in mortality rate were observed in the 1950s in the Nordic countries, and since the 1980s in Denmark, The Netherlands, and (for men only) Norway. For non-smoking-related mortality, a high and consistent pace ofmortality decline was observed. The declines showed a clear cohort pattern, with the smallest declines or even increases for men born between 1890 and 1899, compared to an increased pace of mortality decline among women born between 1847 and 1937. Among men, but not women, the pace of old-age mortality decline correlated with the pace of mortality decline at ages 60-69 among the same cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline are strongly influenced by smoking and probably also by other factors originating earlier in life. For future decades, substantial further declines in old-age mortality may be expected, even though rates of change in specific countries and periods would be difficult to predict.     

Multiple cause-of-death analysis of hypertension-related mortality in New York State

Multiple cause-of-death data--that is, records of all medical conditions listed on death certificates--are used to study hypertension mortality in New York State during 1968-82. Mortality rates based on underlying causes for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke are selected for comparison. During 1968-78, white women showed the largest age-adjusted decline of all race-sex groups for hypertension, as white men did for stroke and nonwhite men did for IHD. White men showed the largest age-adjusted decline for all three diseases for 1979-82. In general, declines in hypertension death rates are more comparable to declines in stroke mortality than to IHD mortality.     

Divergent mortality trends by ethnicity in Fiji

Objective : To examine trends in infant mortality rate (IMR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) in the two major Fijian ethnic groups since 1975. Methods : Estimates of IMR, adult mortality (15–59 years) and LE by ethnicity are calculated from previously unreported Fiji Ministry of Health data and extracted from published sources. Results : Over 1975–2008: IMR decreased from 33 to 20 deaths/1,000 live births in i‐Taukei (Fiji Melanesians); and 38 to 18 in Fijians of Indian descent. Increased adult male mortality among i‐Taukei and decline among Fijians of Indian descent led to an equal probability of dying in 2007 of 29%; while in female adults the probability trended upwards in i‐Taukei to 25%, and declined in Fijians of Indian descent to 17%. Life expectancy in both ethnicities increased until 1985 (to 64 years for males; 68 for females) then forming a plateau in males of both ethnicities, and Fijian females of Indian descent, but declining in i‐Taukei females to 66 years in 2007. Conclusions : Despite IMR declines over 1975–2008, LE for i‐Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent has not increased since 1985, and has actually decreased in i‐Taukei women, consistent with trends in adult mortality (15–59 years). Mortality analyses in Fiji that consider the entire population mask divergent trends in the major ethnic groups. This situation is most likely a consequence of non‐communicable disease mortality, requiring further assessment and a strengthened response.     

1990-2010年我国城乡成年人群脑血管疾病死亡率的流行趋势

目的探讨近20年我国城乡成年人群脑血管疾病死亡率的流行趋势。方法利用《全国卫生统计年报/鉴》中城市和农村地区的分性别分年龄的汇总数据,采用标化死亡率进行不同时点和不同人群脑血管病死亡率的比较,Poisson回归模型进行死亡率的趋势分析,年龄-时期-队列模型法探讨脑血管病的时期、队列和年龄效应。结果 （1）近20年城市人群脑血管病死亡率呈现明显下降趋势,年平均下降率男性约为3.11%,女性约为3.30%,而农村人群则无明显升高或下降趋势;（2）控制了时期和出生队列因素的影响,脑血管疾病的死亡风险随着年龄的增加而增加;（3）控制了时期和年龄因素的影响,出生年代越近,人群脑血管疾病的死亡风险越高。结论城乡成年人群中脑血管疾病所致的疾病负担日益增加;针对病因的初始预防和一级预防应该脑血管疾病人群防治的重点,中年人群可能是防治的重点人群;二级和三级预防中,农村人群不应被忽视。