浙江省三级医院床位及卫技人员需求预测研究

目的 预测浙江省三级医院床位及卫技人员需求数量,为制定区域卫生规划提供参考.方法 采用医院规划模式法,预测浙江省2013-2020年所需的医疗机构床位及卫技人员.结果 预测2020年浙江省医疗机构总床位为38.15万张,三级医院床位数为17.17万张,卫技人员数为18.03万人.结论 在开展区域卫生规划时,建议采用医院规划模式法进行需求预测,同时可根据实际情况,做一定的调整.     

新医改背景下北京乡镇卫生机构人力资源配置分析

目的 了解新医改背景下北京远郊区县基层卫生人力的配置状况,探讨人力建设面临的主要问题及机遇,为农村卫生人力发展提供实证依据和政策建议.方法 收集北京市3个远郊区县近两年卫生人力的监测信息,对关键人物进行个人深入访谈.结果 2009年调查地区乡镇卫生机构卫技人员数共2 709人;每千服务人口卫技人员1.01人,低于200...     

甘肃省农村地区医护人员需求预测分析

目的 预测甘肃省2012-2020年农村地区医护人员数量及需求变化情况,为区域卫生人力规划提供参考依据。方法 收集2003-2011年甘肃省农村人口及医护人员的基础数据,运用人力人口比值法对甘肃省2012-2020年的农村医护人员需求量及缺口进行预测。结果 甘肃省2003-2011年农村地区每千人口执业（助理）医师和注册护士的平均年增长率分别为1.74%和5.27%;到2020年,甘肃省农村地区执业（助理）医师和注册护士的预测值分别是23 810和21 763人,与《医药卫生中长期人才发展规划（2011-2020年）》相比,仍将存在15 253和36 645人的缺口。结论 甘肃省2012-2020年农村地区医护人员数量将逐年增加,供需缺口虽有缩小却将持续存在。     

北京市医疗机构卫生专业技术人员需求预测——基于人力人口比值法

目的:预测北京市医疗机构卫生技术人员需求量,为制定卫生人力规划提供参考。方法:根据2004—2011年北京市常规统计数据资料,运用人力人口比值法预测2020年北京市医疗机构卫技人员需求量和医护比结构。结果:从人员数量看,2020年卫技人员将达到308577人;从专业结构看,2020年医师数和护士数分别为108316人和148122人,医护比为1∶1.4;从不同层级医疗机构看,2020年二级及以下医疗机构医师数和护士数仍远远低于三级医疗机构。结论:2020年北京市医疗机构卫生技术人员数总量相对充足,但医护比例不合理,基层医疗机构医师和护士配备不足。建议保持卫技人员总量充足的优势,调整卫技人员专业结构,重点加大全科、护理等专业人员配置。     

西部贫困地区卫生人力及床位需要量预测方法探讨

[目的]探讨西部贫困地区卫生人力及床位需要量预测方法,为西部贫困地区制定卫生规划提供参考。[方法]以广元市为基础,采用人力人口比值法、趋势外推法、医院规划模式法3种方法预测卫生人力及床位需要量并比较。[结果]预测2005年卫技人员需要量时,3种方法预测结果的相对误差分别为0.98%、20.00%、2.62%,预测2005年床位需要量时,3种方法预测结果的相对误差分别为5.70%、0.38%、6.46%。[结论]西部贫困地区进行卫生人力需要量预测时,可考虑选择人力人口比值法、医院规划模式法,床位需要量预测时,3种方法均可选用。     

2015年四川省医疗机构卫技人员配置标准测算

目的:为适应社会经济、卫生事业的发展以及满足人民群众日益增长的卫生服务需求与需要,对四川省2015年的各市(州)各类卫技人员数量进行预测,为全省卫生资源配置标准的制定提供依据.方法:以居民健康需求调查和卫生资源调查数据为基础,综合考虑地区经济发展水平、人口增长等因素.采用基于卫生资源密度指数的卫生人力综合配置模型进行测算.结果:到2015年,全川执业医师(含助理)配置范围为151700至205557人,每千人口注册护士数应达到1.37至1.85人,每千人口医技人员应达到0.55至0.74人,每千人口药荆人员应达到0.31至0.42人.结论:卫生事业要实现"加快发展,科学发展,又好又快发展".各地区应因地制宜地调整卫技人员数量,尤其是注册护士要大幅增加.     

谈卫生人力规划

卫生人力规划就是对未来卫生人力的需求量、拥有量和需求关系的预测,是卫生部门人力数量和知识、技能类型的预测过程.人口的增长,社会需要的发展,医疗技术的提高,疾病类型的变化,需要大量的、多样性的卫生服务.     

基于ARIMA组合模型的不同经济类型区域卫技人员预测研究

目的:研究我国东、中、西部不同经济类型区域经济社会发展与卫技人员配置变化规律,为优化卫生资源配置及决策提供方法学实证依据。方法:利用我国东、中、西部不同类型区域经济发展、人口规模及卫技人员配置数量的21年历史数据,探索构建ARIMA与多重线性回归组合模型,并进行预测拟合分析。结果:1986—2008年不同区域卫技人员实际值与预测值的拟合度较好,预测精度高。结论:ARIMA组合模型综合设计考虑了除时间综合变量之外不同区域经济社会发展对卫技人员总量的需求影响,适用性强,具有可行性及合理性。     

成都市卫生人力及床位需要量预测方法探讨

目的:探讨成都市卫生人力及床位需要量的预测方法,为区域卫生规划的制定提供参考.方法:采用灰色模型和医院规划模式两种方法,预测成都市2009～020年的卫生人力及床位数,并将预测值与对2009年实际值进行比较,说明预测效果.结果:预测2009 年卫生人员数时,两种方法预测结果的相对误差分别为4.16%、3.34%,预测2009年床位数时,两种方法预测结果的相对误差分别为0.32%、1.19%.结论:两种方法预测效果均较好,政府在开展区域卫生规划时,应根据成都市实际情况,采用适宜的预测方法.     

湖北省卫生人力资源情境分析

目的 对湖北省卫生人力资源的现状进行分析和评估，探讨改善卫生人力质量及分布结构的对策。方法 采用回顾性分析方法，对湖北省1952－2000年卫生人力状况进行描述性分析，并采用聚类分析和秩和比评价法对卫生人力资源进行综合评价。结果 1952－2000年湖北省卫生人员数量由3．57万增至30．14万，卫生人员及卫技人员数平均年递增2．41％和2．44％；2000年千人口拥有卫技人员，医生及护师（士）数分别为4．02人，1．74人和1．03人，医生护士比为1．32，医生防疫人员比为9．91；武汉市，黄石市等6个城市卫生人力资源综合评价较优。结论 湖北省卫生人力资源呈增长趋势，总体数量趋于饱和，但存在素质不高，卫生人力地区间及专业间结构分布不均衡等问题。     

健康公平性概述

健康公平性在国际上得到广泛关注,各国把消除健康不公平作为卫生改革与发展的主要目标。本文就健康公平性的内涵进行梳理,为我国健康公平性内涵和测量研究提供参考。     

The Communication Infrastructure as a Social Determinant of Health: Implications for Health Policymaking and Practice

Policy Points

• Persistent communication inequalities limit racial/ethnic minority access to life‐saving health information and make them more vulnerable to the effects of misinformation.
•  Establishing data collection systems that detect and track acute gaps in the supply and/or access of racial/ethnic minority groups to credible health information is long overdue.
• Public investments and support for minority‐serving media and community outlets are needed to close persistent gaps in access to credible health information.

     

Policy Commercializing Nonprofits in Health: The History of a Paradox From the 19th Century to the ACA

Policy Points:

• Health policy in the United States has, for more than a century, simultaneously and paradoxically incentivized the growth as well as the commercialization of nonprofit organizations in the health sector.
• This policy paradox persists during the implementation of the Affordable Care Act of 2010.

Context

For more than a century, policy in the United States has incentivized both expansion in the number and size of tax-exempt nonprofit organizations in the health sector and their commercialization. The implementation of the Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) began yet another chapter in the history of this policy paradox.

Methods

This article explores the origin and persistence of the paradox using what many scholars call “interpretive social science.” This methodology prioritizes history and contingency over formal theory and methods in order to present coherent and plausible narratives of events and explanations for them. These narratives are grounded in documents generated by participants in particular events, as well as conversations with them, observing them in action, and analysis of pertinent secondary sources. The methodology achieves validity and reliability by gathering information from multiple sources and making disciplined judgments about its coherence and correspondence with reality.

Findings

A paradox with deep historical roots persists as a result of consensus about its value for both population health and the revenue of individuals and organizations in the health sector. Participants in this consensus include leaders of governance who have disagreed about many other issues. The paradox persists because of assumptions about the burden of disease and how to address it, as well as about the effects of biomedical science that is translated into professional education, practice, and the organization of services for the prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and management of illness.

Conclusions

The policy paradox that has incentivized the growth and commercialization of nonprofits in the health sector since the late 19th century remains influential in health policy, especially for the allocation of resources. However, aspects of the implementation of the ACA may constrain some of the effects of the paradox.     

Understanding population health terminology

Population health is a relatively new term, with no agreement about whether it refers to a concept of health or a field of study of health determinants. There is debate, sometimes heated, about whether population health and public health are identical or different. Discussions of population health involve many terms, such as outcomes, disparities, determinants, and risk factors, which may be used imprecisely, particularly across different disciplines, such as medicine, epidemiology, economics, and sociology. Nonetheless, thinking and communicating clearly about population health concepts are essential for public and private policymakers to improve the population's health and reduce disparities. This article defines and discusses many of the terms and concepts characterizing this emerging field.     

The Impact of Medical Home on Selected Children's Health Outcome

Medical Home practice has been shown to deliver effective health care to children. This practice model calls for providing patient-centered care that is compassionate, culturally effective, coordinated, integrated, safe, of high quality, and accessible. This study shows that children in the states with a higher amount of Medical Home received childhood vaccinations at a higher rate than others. However, Medical Home had a limited effect on the rate of children receiving dental/medical services, mental health services, or number of overweight children.     

Adolescent Health: Priorities for the Next Millennium

There have been dramatic changes in adolescent health status over the past decade that have resulted from successful interventions. Overall mortality rates are down 14%, and many morbidities have declined. Today we know many of the elements that reduce risk: parental caring and connectedness, parental expectations for school and parent availability all outweigh family structure, ethnicity, and income. Likewise, schools can be extremely protective when young people feel connectedness. Factors associated with successful interventions include: strengthening families; strengthening educational involvement; expanding economic opportunities; and supporting youth development, not just problem reduction. Priorities for the next decade include: establishing resiliency-building interventions; developing positive correlates of negative behaviors; establishing broader multisectorial interdisciplinary teams; and formulating a new, more inclusive framework for adolescent health and development.     

1994年全国学校卫生现状抽样调查──2000年学校卫生发展战略目标与对策研究之一

全国抽样调查561所城乡中小学校的学校卫生现状。结果表明,我国城乡中小学校的学校卫生现状具有两大特点:其一,学校卫生发展呈现出以经济发达地区城市中学领先、经济欠发达地区乡村小学明显滞后的总态势。其二,学校卫生三个维度发展不平衡,健康环境明显落后于健康服务和健康教育。