Specific laboratory methodologies achieve higher model for endstage liver disease (MELD) scores for patients listed for liver transplantation.

Priority for liver transplantation is currently based on the Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) score, a mathematical function which includes the following objective variables: bilirubin, creatinine (Cr), and international normalized ratio (INR). We have noted that specific laboratory methodologies may yield consistently higher values of bilirubin, Cr, and INR. Therefore, we performed a study to determine if higher MELD scores could be obtained by utilizing laboratory methodologies selected to return higher laboratory values than standard methodologies used in our hospital's clinical laboratory. Phlebotomy was performed for routine clinical indications in 29 consecutive patients listed for liver transplantation. MELD scores were calculated using bilirubin, Cr, and INR from laboratory methods in our hospital's clinical laboratory (designated Lab #1) and from 2 other clinical laboratories (designated Lab #2 and Lab #3). The mean MELD score in our hospital's clinical laboratory (Lab #1) (13.6) was not significantly different than in Lab #2 (14.7), but in Lab #3, it was significantly higher by 20% (17.1), P <.03. Virtually all of the difference in MELD score between our hospital's clinical laboratory (Lab #1) and Lab #3 could be attributed to the INR, which was significantly higher by 26% in Lab #3 (1.9) vs. Lab #1 (1.4), P <.00002. Using MELD scores calculated from our hospital's clinical laboratory, the average change in priority for liver transplantation was from the 58th percentile to the 77th percentile (compared to Lab #3), P =.01. In conclusion, patients listed for liver transplantation at our center achieved significantly higher MELD scores and therefore a higher priority for liver transplantation by using laboratory methodologies that yield higher INR values than our hospital laboratory. The selection of laboratory methodologies may have a significant impact on MELD score.     

A comparison of disease severity and survival rates after liver transplantation in the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States.

The severity of preoperative liver disease influences the outcome of liver transplantation, is commonly used to determine priority on liver transplant waiting lists, and may differ between countries with different rates of liver disease and organ allocation systems. We compared the relative severity of liver disease in transplant recipients with chronic liver disease in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom and its relation to outcome. Data were obtained from national databases on patients who received transplants in the year 2000. The data included age, gender, diagnosis, the status at the time of transplantation, and indices of chronic liver disease [serum bilirubin and international normalized ratio (INR), and serum creatinine] from which a comparative score [model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score] was calculated. The data revealed marked differences between the three countries. No patient in the United Kingdom was in intensive care before transplantation compared with 19.3% of recipients in the United States and 7.5% in Canada. The median model MELD score of recipients in the United Kingdom was 10.9 compared with 16.1 in the United States and 17 in Canada. The median MELD score of transplant recipients in North America did not vary according to diagnosis, whereas in the United Kingdom, patients with cholestatic liver disease had a lower median MELD score (8.5) than those with alcoholic liver disease (15.7) at the time of transplantation. In conclusion, the disease severity of UK liver transplant recipients varied by diagnosis and was lower than recipients in North America; the 1-year survival rate was, however, similar between the countries.     

MELD and Other Factors Associated with Survival after Liver Transplantation

Allocation of cadaveric livers for transplantation in the United States is now based on the severity of illness as determined by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, a function of bilirubin, creatinine and international normalized ratio (INR). The aim of our study was to determine the association of various pre-transplant risk factors, including the MELD score, on patient survival after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). The medical records of 499 consecutive patients (233 female, 266 males, mean age 50.9 +/- 10.6 years) undergoing cadaveric OLT at our institution between June 1990 and February 1998 were reviewed. In the 407 patients alive at the latest contact, follow-up was 4.7 years, with a minimum of 20 months (maximum of 9.4 years). Variables considered for analysis included MELD score, age, pre-transplant renal dysfunction requiring dialysis, Child-Pugh classification, underlying liver disease, diabetes mellitus, and heart disease (ischemic/valvular/other). There were 92 deaths during follow-up. In univariate analysis, the MELD score, renal failure requiring hemodialysis pre-OLT, age > 42 years, and underlying etiology of liver disease were significantly associated with death during long-term follow-up. In multivariate models, age, underlying etiology of liver disease and renal failure requiring hemodialysis were independent predictors of death after OLT.     

Small Difference in International Normalized Ratio May Yield a Significant Impact on Prioritizing Patients Listed for Liver Transplantation

Priority for liver transplantation is currently based on the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. The aim of our study was to assess in detail the contribution of international normalized ratio (INR) differences for MELD scores because of interlaboratory variability. The samples from 92 cirrhotic patients were measured on different systems combining three coagulometers and three thromboplastin products to determine variations in INR and MELD score. The INR differences among the first four systems varied between 0 and 0.2, resulting in MELD differences of 0 to 2. The MELD scores of 92 patients changed only among 10 possible integers so that normally 2 to 10 patients shared the same MELD value. In some cases, one MELD score difference resulted in a 10 superpositioning on the waiting list. Including one more system (mechanical vs optical) into our investigations achieved a five MELD difference. Supposing an extreme situation where one patient competes with his or her lowest, all the other with their highest possible score (and visa versa), the difference may be even 20 positions, overturning the complete waiting list. In conclusion substantial interlaboratory differences in MELD score have profound clinical consequences.     

The International Normalized Ratio (INR) in the MELD Score: Problems and Solutions

The Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is widely used to prioritize patients for liver transplantation. One of the pitfalls of the MELD score is the interlaboratory variability in all three components of the score (INR, bilirubin, creatinine). The interlaboratory variability in the INR has the largest impact on the MELD score, with a mean difference of around 5 MELD points in most studies. During the 3rd conference on Coagulopathy and Liver disease, a multidisciplinary group of scientists and physicians discussed possible solutions for the INR problem in the MELD score with the intention to provide a constructive contribution to the international debate on this issue. Here we will discuss possible solutions and highlight advantages and disadvantages.     

Pretransplant MELD score and post liver transplantation survival in the UK and Ireland.

It has been shown that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an accurate predictor of survival in patients with liver disease without transplantation. Four recent studies carried out in the United States have demonstrated that the MELD score obtained immediately prior to transplantation is also associated with post-transplant patient survival. Our aim was to evaluate how accurately the MELD score predicts 90-day post-transplant survival in adult patients with chronic liver disease in the UK and Ireland. The UK and Ireland Liver Transplant Audit has data on all liver transplants since 1994. We studied survival of 3838 adult patients after first elective liver transplantation according to United Network for Organ Sharing categories of their MELD scores (< or = 10, 11-18, 19-24, 25-35, > or =36). The overall survival at 90-days was 90.2%. The 90-day survival varied according to the United Network for Organ Sharing MELD categories (92.6%, 91.9%, 89.7%, 89.7%, and 70.8%, respectively; P < 0.01). Therefore, only those patients with a MELD score of 36 or higher (3% of the patients) had a survival that was markedly lower than the rest. As a consequence, the ability of the MELD score to discriminate between patients who were dead or alive was poor (c-statistic 0.58). Re-estimating the coefficients in the MELD regression model, even allowing for nonlinear relationships, did not improve its discriminatory ability. In conclusion, in the UK and Ireland the MELD score is significantly associated with post-transplant survival, but its predictive ability is poor. These results are in agreement with results found in the United States. Therefore, the most appropriate system to support patient selection for transplantation will be one that combines a pretransplant survival model (e.g., MELD score) with a properly developed post-transplant survival model.     

Analysis of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in a liver transplantation waiting list

BACKGROUND: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was introduced in 1999 to quantify the 3-month prognosis of cirrhotic patients after a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). Because of the imbalance between organ donors and patients on the waiting list, the MELD was adopted by the United States in 2002 to allocate liver grafts for transplantation. Preliminary results have indicated a reduction in waiting list deaths and an increase in transplantation rates for candidates. Seeking to find a new model to predict death on the waiting list and after liver transplantation, retrospective studies have examined MELD scores in waiting list patients. The aim of this study was to analyze the MELD scores of patients on the liver waiting list for comparisons between transplanted patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was performed analyzing 131 registrations of 127 orthotopic liver transplant (OLT) patients (4 underwent retransplantation) grafted between November 2000 and January 2006, excluding 24 patients: 2 had urgent retransplantations due to hepatic artery thrombosis and 22 had incomplete data. These patients were divided into 3 groups: group I (transplanted patients)-53 patients underwent 55 OLT; group II-29 patients who died on the waiting list; group III-patients on the waiting list including 23 patients still waiting as of the date of the study. RESULTS: The main indication for OLT was hepatitis C virus cirrhosis (50.50%), followed by alcoholic liver cirrhosis (23.30%), cryptogenic cirrhosis (12.60%), autoimmune hepatitis (5.80%), hepatitis B virus cirrhosis (4.85%), and primary biliary cirrhosis (2.91%). Group I: MELD score 15.62 (range, 6-39) on admission to the list, and 18.87 (range, 7-39) at transplantation. The mean waiting time for OLT was 478.39 days (range, 2-1270 days). The 38 patients who survived underwent 39 OLT (1 retransplantation). The MELD score at entrance to the list was 14.62 (range, 7-30) and at transplantation, 17.70 (range, 7-39). The mean time between admission to the list and transplantation was 505.37 days (range, 6-1270 days). The 15 patients who died had received 16 OLT (1 retransplantation). Their MELD scores were 17.80 (range, 6-39) and 21.81 (range, 9-39) at admission to the list and at transplantation, respectively, with a mean time on the waiting list of 417.93 days (range, 2-872 days). Group II: 29 patients died before OLT, at a mean age of 52.60 years (range, 22-67 years). Their MELD score was 19.24 (range, 7-45), and the interval between admission to the waiting list and death was 249.55 days (range, 3-1247 days). Group III: 23 patients still active on the OLT waiting list at the time of study displayed a mean MELD score of 13.65 (range, 6-28) and 354.30 days (range, 2-905 days) waiting until the moment. In conclusion, MELD score at the time of admission to the waiting list was higher among those patients who died either awaiting a liver graft (19.24) or after OLT (17.80) compared with those who survived after OLT (14.60) or are still awaiting OLT (13.65).     

MELD-XI: a rational approach to "sickest first" liver transplantation in cirrhotic patients requiring anticoagulant therapy.

Priority for "sickest first" liver transplantation (LT) in the United States is determined by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). MELD is a good predictor of short-term mortality in cirrhosis, but it can overestimate risk when international normalized ratio (INR) is artificially elevated by anticoagulation. An alternate prognostic index omitting INR is needed in this situation. We retrospectively analyzed survival data for 554 cirrhotic veterans referred for consideration of LT prior to December 1, 2003 (training group). Using logistic regression we derived a predictive formula for 90-day pretransplant mortality incorporating bilirubin and creatinine but omitting INR. We normalized this formula to the same scale as MELD using linear regression. This yielded MELD-XI (for MELD excluding INR) = 5.11 Ln(bilirubin) + 11.76 Ln(creatinine) + 9.44. Accuracy of MELD-XI was validated in a holdout group of 278 cirrhotic veterans referred after December 1, 2003, and in an independent validation dataset of 7,203 cirrhotic adults listed for LT in the United States between May 1, 2001, and October 31, 2001. MELD-XI and MELD correlated well in training, holdout, and independent validation cohorts (r = 0.930, 0.954, and 0.902, respectively). In the holdout cohort, c-statistics of MELD vs. MELD-XI for mortality were, respectively, 0.939 vs. 0.906 at 30 days;0.860 vs. 0.841 at 60 days; 0.842 vs. 0.829 at 90 days; and 0.795 vs. 0.797 at 180 days. In the independent validation dataset, c-statistics for MELD vs. MELD-XI as predictors of 90-day survival were, respectively, 0.857 vs. 0.843 in noncholestatic liver diseases and 0.905 vs. 0.894 in cholestatic liver diseases. Comparable MELD and MELD-XI scores were associated with comparable prognosis. In conclusion, MELD-XI, despite omission of INR, is nearly as accurate as MELD in predicting short-term survival in cirrhosis. In patients treated with oral anticoagulants, substitution of MELD-XI for MELD may permit more accurate assessment of risk and more rational assignment of "sickest first" priority for LT.     

Value of the MELD score for the assessment of pre- and post-liver transplantation survival

The MELD score has now been implemented in the United States for liver allocation, but it has not been validated in Europe. Its association with posttransplant outcome is unclear. Optimal cutoff values of MELD and Child-Pugh scores to predict death on the liver waiting list were defined in a series of 137 cirrhotic patients listed for liver transplantation. Six-month actuarial survival while on the waiting list was 90% with a Child-Pugh <11 and MELD <17, whereas it decreased progressively to 40% at 6 months after listing for those having a Child-Pugh and MELD score >10 and >16. Analysis of a series of 112 patients (85 chronic liver disease and 27 hepatocellular carcinoma) revealed no change in MELD value at the time of transplantation compared to the score at the time of listing (mean +/- SD: 15.5 +/- 7.7 vs 15 +/- 5.8) with a mean waiting time of 118 days. Using either the optimal cutoff for MELD score (<17 or >16) or seven different strata (3 to 7, 8 to 10, 11 to 13, 14 to 16, 17 to 19, 20 to 22, 23 to 39), whether measured at listing or just before liver transplantation, there was no significant difference (chi(2) 4.97, P = .58) in survival: 82.7% and 63% at 6 and 60 months, overall. Our data confirm that the MELD score with only three parameters is as good as the Child-Pugh score to predict mortality on the Eurotransplant waiting list. The optimal cutoff to assess higher priority for the bad category is >16. There was no negative impact on short- or long-term prognosis of the bad categories of MELD.     

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and organ allocation from cadaveric donors for 198 liver transplantation procedures performed in a single center

Since February 2002, the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) proposed to adopt a modified version of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) to assign priority on the waiting list for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). In this study, we evaluated the impact of MELD score on liver allocation in a single center series of 198 liver recipients (mean age of patients, 52.21+/-8.92 years), considering the relationship between clinical urgency derived from MELD score (overall MELD, 18.7+/-6.83; MELD <15 in 69 patients, MELD >or=15 in 129 patients) and geographical distribution of cadaveric donors (inside/outside Liguria Region, 125/73). The waiting time for OLT was 230+/-248 days, whereas the 3-month and 1-year patient survivals were 87.37% and 79.79%, respectively. No difference was observed for MELD score retrospectively calculated for patients who underwent OLT before February 2002 (n=71) compared with MELD score calculated for patients who received a liver thereafter (18.26+/-6.68 vs 18.94+/-6.92; P= .504). No significant difference was found in waiting time before and after adoption of MELD score (213+/-183 vs 238+/-278 days; P= .500), or by stratifying patients for MELD <15/>or=15 (225+/-234 vs 232+/-256 days; P= .851). Using the geographical distribution of donors as a grouping variable (outside vs inside Liguria Region), no significance occurred for MELD score (19.68+/-7.42 vs 18.17+/-6.42; P= .135) or waiting time (211+/-226 vs 242+/-261 days; P= .394). In our series, more OLTs were performed among sicker patients and no differences were found in the management of livers procured from cadaveric donors outside or inside Liguria Region. However, further efforts are needed to reduce the waiting time among patients with higher MELD scores.     

Predictive models in cirrhosis: correlation with the final results and costs of liver transplantation in Chile

Medical scores for predicting survival are essential to stratify patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) for prioritization for liver transplantation (OLT). Recently the UNOS has adopted the Mayo Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score as the basis for liver allocation in the United States. We retrospectively evaluated and assessed the prognostic impact, the length of stay (LOS), and hospital charges for OLT using two severity scores (Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] versus MELD) to stratify cirrhotic patients before OLT. Twenty-six consecutive adult cirrhotic patients (11 women, mean age 46 years) underwent LT between 2000 and 2002. The main causes for transplantation were alcohol and primary biliary cirrhosis. The mean CTP and MELD scores at the moment of listing for OLT were 8.9 and 16.3 points, respectively. The best discriminative values with prognostic impact in terms of outcome and costs of OLT were a Child Pugh score >/=11 points or a MELD score >/=20 points. Patients in these strata showed a significant increase in LOS in the hospital (from a mean of 12 to 22 days) and intensive care stay (from a mean of 4 to 14 days) post-OLT when compared with patients with a lower CTP or MELD score (P <.05). There was also a trend toward higher hospital charges (P =.06). Organ allocation by MELD score will probably adversely affect the LOS and hospital charges of patients being transplanted due to ESLD.     

终末期肝病模型评分及MELD-Na评分评估肝衰竭肝移植短期预后的对比观察

目的探讨终末期肝病模型（model for end-stage liver disease, MELD）评分与MELD-Na评分对肝衰竭患者行肝移植短期预后（3个月）的临床价值。 方法收集从2012年1月至2019年12月在中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九〇〇医院因肝衰竭行肝移植的86例患者的术前及术中临床资料。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评价MELD和MELD-Na评分对短期预后的鉴别能力并根据Youden指数确定最佳的cut-off值。 结果86例患者中早期死亡21例（24.4%）。术前MELD评分（P=0.001）和术中输血量（P<0.001）是肝衰竭行肝移植患者早期死亡的独立危险因素。MELD和MELD-Na评分预测肝移植术后早期死亡的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.696和0.686，差异无统计学意义（P=0.677）。MELD≥24.3组、MELD<24.3组的早期生存率分别为51.7%（15/29）和87.7%（50/57），MELD-Na≥25.7组、MELD<25.7组的早期生存率分别为54.9%（17/31）和87.3%（48/55），差异均有统计学意义（P<0.001），MELD评分与MELD-Na评分升高时，早期生存率降低。 结论在预测肝衰竭行肝移植患者早期预后方面，MELD评分与MELD-Na评分预测能力无明显差异。MELD评分与术中输血量是患者早期死亡的独立危险因素。     

Impact of the MELD score on waiting time and disease severity in liver transplantation in United States veterans.

Organ allocation for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States is based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. The MELD score prioritizes organ distribution to sicker patients. There is limited data on the effect of this policy on transplantation in the Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the MELD score on U.S. veteran patients undergoing LT. Comparison of MELD scores and waiting time of LT recipients before and after the introduction of the MELD system was done. A total of 192 LT recipients were analyzed. Blood type, diagnosis, listing MELD score, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score at transplant did not differ although MELD era recipients were older (mean 54.3 vs. 51.3 yr, P = 0.009). Mean waiting time decreased from 461 days (pre-MELD) to 252 days (MELD era) (P = 0.004). Mean MELD score at LT increased from 23.4 (MELD era) compared to 20.3 (pre-MELD) (P = 0.01). In conclusion, waiting time for LT in U.S. veterans has decreased significantly in the MELD era. The MELD score of patients transplanted in the MELD era is significantly higher and patients are still being listed at a high MELD score. The MELD system has lead to sicker veterans being transplanted with shorter waiting times.     

术前MELD评分和术后CD14^＋／HLA—DR测定在肝移植术后感染预测中的意义

目的：探讨原位肝移植术前终末期肝病模型（MELD）评分和术后CD14^＋单核细胞人自细胞DR抗原（CD14^＋／HLA-DR）表达率的变化在术后感染预测中的临床意义。方法：按美国胸科医师协会／危重病医学会的定义,将83例肝移植术后患者分为非感染组、感染组、感染性休克组,分别测定3组患者术前血胆红素、凝血酶原时间国际标准化比值（INR）、血肌酐,计算MELD评分,并动态检测术后CD14^＋／HLA—DR表达率,分析其在感染监测中的价值。结果：感染组和感染休克组术前血胆红素、INR、血肌酐和MELD评分均显著高于非感染组（P〈0．01）,CD14^＋／HLA-DR表达率均显著低于非感染组（P〈0．01）。感染组和感染休克组之间比较,上述指标均无显著性差异（P〉0．05）。感染发生后,感染组、感染性休克组的CD14^＋／HLA—DR值显著下降,与非感染组比较,差异具有显著性（P〈0．05或P〈0．01）;感染最重时两组的CD14^＋／HLA—DR值均降到最低值,与非感染组比较,差异具有显著性（P〈0．01）。结论：术前MELD评分和术后CD14^＋／HLA—DR表达率是监测肝移植术后感染发生及判断预后的良好指标。对术前高MELD评分或术后可疑感染的患者,动态监测CD14^＋／HLA-DR表达率对病情判断和治疗调整均有较好的指导意义。     

Bilirubin appears to be the only independent variable affecting mortality on liver transplant waiting list if waiting time exceeds 1 year

BACKGROUND: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been shown to be the best predictor of short-term mortality on the liver transplant waiting list in the United States but waiting time often exceeds 1 year in many countries. We wanted to identify the factors affecting mortality on the liver transplant waiting list in Singapore where waiting time for liver transplant exceeds 1 year. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients who were listed on the liver transplant waiting list in Singapore from January 1997 to December 2003 excluding those who were transplanted were analyzed. MELD was calculated according to the United Network for Organ Sharing formula. Univariate analysis was performed to identify factors affecting mortality on the waiting list and multivariate analysis by logistic regression. Categorical and continuous variables were compared with the chi-square and Mann-Whitney U tests. RESULTS: There were 48 patients in the study. We found that on univariate analysis, bilirubin, INR, MELD score, and Child's score significantly influenced mortality on the waiting list but on multivariate analysis, bilirubin was the only independent prognostic indicator of mortality on the waiting list (LR = 1.97; 95% confidence interval = 1.08 to 3.61). INR was found to be significantly correlated to bilirubin with Pearson correlation (R = 0.63, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Bilirubin is the only independent factor affecting mortality on the liver transplant waiting list where waiting time exceeds 1 year.     

Sex‐Based Disparities in Liver Transplant Rates in the United States

We sought to characterize sex‐based differences in access to deceased donor liver transplantation. Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data were used to analyze n = 78 998 adult candidates listed before (8/1997–2/2002) or after (2/2002–2/2007) implementation of Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD)‐based liver allocation. The primary outcome was deceased donor liver transplantation. Cox regression was used to estimate covariate‐adjusted differences in transplant rates by sex. Females represented 38% of listed patients in the pre‐MELD era and 35% in the MELD era. Females had significantly lower covariate‐adjusted transplant rates in the pre‐MELD era (by 9%; p < 0.0001) and in the MELD era (by 14%; p < 0.0001). In the MELD era, the disparity in transplant rate for females increased as waiting list mortality risk increased, particularly for MELD scores ≥15. Substantial geographic variation in sex‐based differences in transplant rates was observed. Some areas of the United States had more than a 30% lower covariate‐adjusted transplant rate for females compared to males in the MELD era. In conclusion, the disparity in liver transplant rates between females and males has increased in the MELD era. It is especially troubling that the disparity is magnified among patients with high MELD scores and in certain regions of the United States.     

High model for end-stage liver disease score as a predictor of survival during long-term follow-up after liver transplantation

Background

The allocation of cadaveric livers for transplantation in the United States is now based on the severity of illness as determined by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), which was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. However, its impact to predict posttransplantation survival is controversial. The objective of this study was to determine the association of various pretransplantation risk factors, including the MELD score and whether its use to allocate organs is likely to lead to overall poorer outcomes of liver transplantation.

Methods

The 1,032 consecutive adult liver transplantation patients at King's College Hospital between 2 January 1994 and 29 December 2001 were examined for 9 preoperative risk factors, including MELD score, using univariate and multivariate techniques. Based on their pretransplantation MELD scores, we categorized recipients as low (<15) medium (15-25), or high (>25). Kaplan-Meier patient survival analysis was used to identify differences in outcomes.

Results

The patients had a mean age of 47.2 years and mean posttransplantation follow-up of 5.3 years. Univariate analysis showed recipient diabetes mellitus, renal dysfunction, and pretransplantation MELD score to be associated with patient survival. Multivariate analysis showed the MELD score to be significantly associated with death during long-term follow-up.

Conclusions

A high pretransplantation MELD score was associated with poor posttransplantation outcomes.     

The MELD score may help to determine optimum time for liver transplantation

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a good predictor of mortality on the waiting list and short-term survival post liver transplantation. Aim: Our aim was to determine if there is a pretransplant MELD score beyond which liver transplantation is prohibitive. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty-six adult patients underwent primary liver transplantation from January 1996 to December 2002. Patients followed to the most recent visit or death underwent survival analysis using Cox regression and Kaplan Meier methods. RESULTS: There was a significant correlation between the pretransplant MELD score and survival at 6 months posttransplant (P=.037 95% CI: 1.004-1.13). Patients with pretransplant MELD score greater than or equal to 32 showed significantly greater mortality compared with those less than 32 (HR 9.18, 95%CI=1.16-72.44). CONCLUSION: Pretransplant MELD may help to determine the optimum time for liver transplantation.     

Variability of MELD score during the year before liver transplantation

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a good parameter to establish the patient survival before liver transplantation and give priority to the sickest patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the variability and potential regression of MELD score during the months before liver transplant. From the 350 patients waitlisted for transplantation, we evaluated the 124 patients who had enough blood tests during 12 months before the final event (transplantation, death, removal from list due to improvement or worsening). We considered month 12 as the final event and blood tests from 0, 3, 6, and 12 months were analyzed. MELD score was calculated and compared using ANOVA for repeated measures test. To determine variability of MELD and its components, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated for 0, 3, and 6 months. The degree of constancy was defined by proximity of ICC to 1. Two groups by initial MELD (< or =17 or >17) were considered. Patient data are: mean age, 53 +/- 9 years; sex: 70% men, etiology, 28% hepatitis C, 11% alcohol and hepatitis C, 16% alcohol, 28% hepatocellular carcinoma, 6% hepatitis B, 11% others; Initial Child-score, 8.5 +/- 2.0; Initial MELD score, 15.2 +/- 4.9; mean time on waiting list, 8.1 +/- 5.7 months. MELD score from 6 and 12 months was significantly higher than the initial one. The most constant parameter was creatinine (ICC:0.89); bilirubin (ICC:0.58) and INR (ICC:0.59) were the most variable ones. MELD score ICC was 0.79. In only one patient did MELD score decrease 5 points below the initial one. For initial MELD < or = 17 and >17, variability was lower in the former. In conclusion, MELD became significantly higher 6 months after the basal determination. This score is reliable as it does not tend to decrease in time. In high MELD scores (>17), 3-month survival was lower and variability greater so that more careful follow-up and prioritizing are needed.     

Impact of MELD on Waitlist Outcome of Retransplant Candidates

Under the current allocation system for liver transplantation (LTx), primary and retransplantation (ReTx) are treated identically. The aims of this study were (1) to compare the risk of death between ReTx and primary LTx candidates at a given MELD score and (2) to gauge the impact of the MELD‐based allocation system on the waitlist outcome of ReTx candidates. Based on data of all waitlist registrants in the United States between 2000 and 2006, unique adult patients with chronic liver disease were identified and followed forward to determine mortality within six months of registration. There were a total of 45,943 patients waitlisted for primary LTx and 2081 registered for ReTx. In the MELD era (n = 30,175), MELD was significantly higher among ReTx candidates than primary LTx candidates (median, 21 vs. 15). Within a range of MELD scores where most transplantation took place, mortality was comparable between ReTx and primary candidates after adjusting for MELD. The probability for LTx increased significantly following implementation of the MELD‐based allocation in both types of candidates. We conclude that by and large, primary and ReTx candidates fare equitably under the current MELD‐based allocation system, which has contributed to a significant increase in the probability of LTx.