Arterial lactate improves the prognostic performance of severity score systems in septic patients in the ED

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic performance of lactate in septic patients in the emergency department (ED) and investigate how to add lactate to the traditional score systems.

Methods

This was a single-centered, prospective, observational cohort study conducted in ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital. The study enrolled adult septic patients admitted to the ED. Arterial lactate was measured in every patient. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) scores were calculated on ED arrival. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality.

Results

The average levels of lactate, MEDS, APACHE II, and SOFA were much higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (P < .001), and they were the independent predictors of 28-day mortality. Area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves of MEDS, APACHE II, SOFA, and lactate were 0.74, 0.74, 0.75, and 0.79, respectively. The AUCs of combination lactate and MEDS, APACHE II, and SOFA were 0.81, 0.81, and 0.82, respectively and were much higher than that of score systems alone (P < .05). The AUCs of modified MEDS, APACHE II, and SOFA were 0.80, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively. The prognostic value of the modified score systems was superior to the original score systems and similar to the combination of the lactate and original score systems.

Conclusions

Lactate is a prognostic predictor in septic patients in the ED, and it may improve the performance of APACHE II, SOFA, and MEDS scores in predicting mortality.     

Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score as a prognostic indicator in patients with pyogenic liver abscess

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to explore the predictor index of mortality in patients with pyogenic liver abscess (PLA).

Methods

We performed a retrospective review that enrolled 431 patients 18 years and older hospitalized due to PLA between January 2005 and December 2010. Clinical characteristics, laboratory results, treatments, and outcomes retrieved from medical records were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed.

Results

The mean age of the 431 patients identified with PLA was 56.9 ± 15.0 years. The mean Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score on admission was 4.8 ± 4.1 (range, 0-17). During hospitalization, 94 patients (22%) required intensive care. Of the 431 patients, 63 died, yielding a 15% case fatality rate. Multivariate analysis revealed that higher MEDS scores on admission (P < .0001) and the presence of underlying malignancy (P = .006), multiple abscesses (P = .001), anaerobic infections (P < .0001), hyperbilirubinemia (P < .0001), and higher serum creatinine levels (P < .0001) were significantly associated with PLA mortality. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for MEDS in predicting PLA mortality was 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.791-0.864; P < .0001). The optimal cutoff MEDS value of 7 or higher had a sensitivity of 76% sensitivity and a specificity of 81%, with a 10.7-fold PLA mortality risk (P < .0001) and a 26.2-fold intensive care unit admission risk (P < .0001).

Conclusions

The MEDS scores on admission represent a significant prognostic indicator for patients with PLA.     

Comparison of Predisposition, Insult/Infection, Response, and Organ dysfunction, Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis in patients meeting criteria for early goal-directed therapy and the severe sepsis resuscitation bundle

Purpose

The aim of the study was to examine the performance of the Predisposition, Insult/Infection, Response, and Organ dysfunction (PIRO) model compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) scoring systems in predicting in-hospital mortality for patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with severe sepsis or septic shock.

Materials and Methods

This study was an analysis of a prospectively maintained registry including adult patients with severe sepsis or septic shock meeting criteria for early goal-directed therapy and the severe sepsis resuscitation bundle over a 6-year period. The registry contains data on patient demographics, sepsis category, vital signs, laboratory values, ED length of stay, hospital length of stay, physiologic scores, and outcome status. The discrimination and calibration characteristics of PIRO, APACHE II, and MEDS were analyzed.

Results

Five-hundred forty-one patients with age 63.5 ± 18.5 years were enrolled, 61.9% in septic shock, 46.9% blood-culture positive, and 31.8% in-hospital mortality. Median (25th and 75th percentile) PIRO, APACHE II, and MEDS scores were 6 (5 and 8), 28 (22 and 34), and 12 (9 and 15), with predicted mortalities of 48.5% (40.1 and 63.9), 66.0% (42.0 and 83.0), and 16.0% (9.0 and 39.0), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for PIRO was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.75); APACHE II, 0.71 (0.66-0.76); and MEDS, 0.63 (0.60-0.70). The standardized mortality ratio was 0.70 (0.08-1.41), 0.70 (−0.46 to 1.80), and 4.00 (−8.53 to 16.62), respectively. Actual mortality significantly increased with increasing PIRO score in patients with APACHE II 25 or more (P < .01).

Conclusions

The PIRO, APACHE II, and MEDS have variable abilities to early discriminate and estimate in-hospital mortality of patients presenting to the ED meeting criteria for early goal-directed therapy and the severe sepsis resuscitation bundle. The PIRO may provide additional risk stratification in patients with APACHE II 25 or more. More studies are required to evaluate the clinical applicability of PIRO in high-risk patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.     

The prognostic and risk-stratified value of heart-type fatty acid–binding protein in septic patients in the emergency department

Purpose

To evaluate the prognostic and risk-stratified ability of heart-type fatty acid–binding protein (H-FABP) in septic patients in the emergency department (ED).

Materials and Methods

From August to November 2012, 295 consecutive septic patients were enrolled. Circulating H-FABP was measured. The predictive value of H-FABP for 28-day mortality, organ dysfunction on ED arrival, and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression and was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

Results

The 28-day mortality, APACHE II, MEDS, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores were much higher in H-FABP–positive patients. The incidence of organ dysfunction at ED arrival and requirement for mechanical ventilation or a vasopressor within 6 hours after ED arrival was higher in H-FABP–positive patients. Heart-type fatty acid–binding protein was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for H-FABP predicting 28-day mortality and organ dysfunction was 0.784 and 0.755, respectively. Combination of H-FABP and MEDS improved the performance of MEDS in predicting organ dysfunction, and the difference of AUC was statistically significant (P < .05). The combinations of H-FABP and MEDS or H-FABP and APACHE II also improved the prognostic value of MEDS and APACHE II, but the areas under the curve were not statistically different.

Conclusions

Heart-type fatty acid–binding protein was helpful for prognosis and risk stratification of septic patients in the ED.     

Critically ill elderly patients in a developing world—mortality and functional outcome at 1 year: A prospective single-center study

Purpose

To study the mortality and outcome of critically ill elderly patients in a developing country with focus on nutritional and socioeconomic status.

Methods

A prospective study of 109 patients (215 screened) admitted consecutively to the intensive care unit from 2011 to 2012. Demographics, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, mechanical ventilation, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool score, socioeconomic category, functional status, delirium, and length of stay were recorded. Telephonic assessment of outcome was done at 1 year. Appropriate statistical tests compared differences between subgroups. Multivariate analysis was performed on significant variables (P < .1) affecting mortality.

Results

At 12 months after discharge, 46.8% of patients (mean age, 76.5 ± 9.6 years; APACHEII, 22.7 ± 6.4; and intensive care unit stay, 7.8 ± 3.4 days) had died. Risk factors for mortality at 12 months were APACHE II score (P < .001; odds ratio [OR], 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.3), severe malnutrition (P = .006; OR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.01-0.48), and delirium (P = .03; OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.11-0.9). Risk factors for short-term mortality (at 28 days) were APACHE II score (P = .02; OR, 1.1 [1.0-1.2]) and premorbid functional status (P = .03; OR, 0.2 [0.1-0.8]). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a significant association with malnutrition (log-rank test, P = .012) but not with socioeconomic category. Most (72%) of the survivors had a favorable functional status.

Conclusions

Malnutrition, delirium, and APACHEII were risk factors for long-term mortality. Survivors had a good functional outcome. Appropriate quality of life tools for this population need to be developed.     

Outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to a specialty liver intensive care unit in India

Purpose

The study aimed to describe the clinical outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) and to compare the performance of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in predicting mortality.

Methods

In this prospective study of patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU, demographic data, APACHE II score, SOFA score, presence of acute renal failure (ARF), need for organ support, and mortality were collected.

Results

The observed mortality in ICU and at 30 days among 104 patients was 42.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 32.7%-52.0%) and 56.7% (95% CI, 47.0%-66.4%), respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for first-day APACHE II in predicting 30-day mortality was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.83-0.96) and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.98) for SOFA score (P = .24). On multivariate analysis, ARF (adjusted odds ratio, 7.7; 95% CI, 1.09-54.64) and mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 277.6; 95% CI, 12.83-6004.94) were significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusions

Presence of ARF and need for mechanical ventilation are associated with high mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the ICU. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and SOFA are good prognostic models in predicting 30-day mortality and do not differ in performance.     

Rapid Emergency Medicine Score as a main predictor of mortality in Vibrio vulnificus–related patients

Objectives

Vibrio vulnificus causes potentially life-threatening and rapidly progressing infections. Therefore, the severity-of-illness assessment appears to be important for V vulnificus–infected patients at the time of admission. The aim of our study was to evaluate the performance of the severity-of-illness scoring model on admission in V vulnificus–infected patients.

Methods

One hundred seventy-one consecutive patients (mean age: 63.1 ± 12.3 years) with V vulnificus infection who were admitted to a teaching hospital between January 1999 and June 2010 were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, illness severity on admission, treatment, and outcomes were collected for each patient and extracted for analysis. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed.

Results

The mean Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) on admission was 6.5 ± 3.0 points. During hospitalization, 68 patients (40%) required intensive care. The overall case-fatality rate was 25%. In multivariate analysis, the presence of underlying liver disease (P = .002), hemorrhagic bullous lesions/necrotizing fasciitis (P = .012), and higher REMS values on admission (P < .0001) were associated with increased mortality risk; a time span < 24 hours between arrival and surgical treatment was associated with a decreased mortality risk (P = .007). Additionally, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the REMS in predicting mortality risk was 0.895 (P < .0001). An optimal cut-off REMS ≥ 8 had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 85%, with a 26.6-fold mortality risk (P < .0001) and a 12.5-fold intensive care unit admission risk (P < .0001).

Conclusion

The REMS could provide clinicians with an effective adjunct risk stratification tool for V vulnificus–infected patients.     

Prognostic value of adrenomedullin in septic patients in the ED

Objective

The aims of the present study were to evaluate the prognostic value of adrenomedullin (AM) in septic patients in the emergency department (ED) and to compare it with procalcitonin (PCT) and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score.

Methods

We enrolled 837 consecutive patients who fulfilled the systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria and were admitted to the ED of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital and 100 age-matched healthy controls. Serum AM and PCT were determined, and MEDS score was calculated at enrollment. The prognostic value of AM was compared with PCT and MEDS score. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

Results

On admission, mean levels of AM were 28.66 ± 6.05 ng/L in 100 healthy controls, 31.65 ± 6.47 ng/L in 153 systemic inflammatory response syndrome patients, 33.24 ± 8.59 ng/L in 376 sepsis patients, 34.81 ± 8.33 ng/L in 210 severe sepsis patients, and 45.15 ± 9.87 ng/L in 98 septic shock patients. The differences between the 2 groups were significant. Adrenomedullin level was higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors in every group. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of AM for predicting in-hospital mortality in septic patients was 0.773, which was better than PCT (0.701) and MEDS score (0.721). Combination of AM and MEDS score improved the accuracy of AM and MEDS score in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.817). In logistic regression analysis, AM and MEDS score were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions

Adrenomedullin is valuable for prognosis in septic patients in the ED.     

Predictors of mortality in patients with stress-induced cardiomyopathy developed during critical care

Purpose

The aims of this study were to define predictors of in-hospital mortality and to explore the implication of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score in patients with stress-induced cardiomyopathy (SCM) developed during critical care.

Materials and Methods

All patients admitted to intensive care unit and underwent transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) were consecutively enrolled from January 2008 to May 2011. Clinical, demographic and laboratory data, APACHE II score, and transthoracic echocardiography finding were analyzed using a logistic regression model to investigate predictors of in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 71 patients (60 ± 18 years, 37% male) were included in the final analysis. In univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, underlying malignancies, male sex, age less than 65 years, and APACHE II score higher than 15 remained independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality of SCM. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for APACHE II was 0.745 (95% confidence interval, 0.630-0.861; P = .001), and an APACHE II score of 15 (sensitivity 73%, specificity 68%) was the optimal cutoff value in predicting in-hospital mortality of SCM during critical care.

Conclusion

The in-hospital mortality in patients with SCM that developed during critical care was associated with underlying malignancy, male sex, old age, and APACHE II score.     

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition,infection, response,and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study

Introduction

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores.

Methods

Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems.

Results

Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs of PIRO were significantly greater than those of APACHE II and MEDS (P < 0.05) in predicting ICU admission and MOD.

Conclusions

The study indicates that PIRO is helpful for risk stratification and prognostic determinations in septic patients in the ED.     

Risk stratification of severe sepsis patients in the emergency department

Objective

To determine the efficacy of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in the stratification of patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) with severe sepsis.

Methods

Adults who presented to the ED with severe sepsis were retrospectively recruited and divided into group A (MEDS score <12) and group B (MEDS score ⩾12). Their outcomes were evaluated with 28 day hospital mortality rate, length of hospital stay, Kaplan‐Meier survival analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Discriminatory power of the MEDS score in mortality prediction was further compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model.

Results

In total, 276 patients (44.6% men and 55.4% women) were analysed, with 143 patients placed in group A and 133 patients in group B. Patients with MEDS score ⩾12 had a significantly higher mortality rate (48.9% v 17.5%, p<0.01) and higher median APACHE II score (25 v 20 points, p<0.01). Significant difference in mortality risk was also demonstrated with Kaplan‐Meier survival analysis (log rank test, p<0.01). No difference in the length of hospital stay was found between the groups. ROC analysis indicated a better performance in mortality prediction by the MEDS score compared with the APACHE II score (ROC 0.75 v 0.62, p<0.01).

Conclusion

Our results showed that mortality risk stratification of severe sepsis patients in the ED with MEDS score is effective. The MEDS score also discriminated better than the APACHE II model in mortality prediction.     

Diagnostic value and prognostic evaluation of Presepsin for sepsis in an emergency department

Introduction

Presepsin levels are known to be increased in sepsis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the early diagnostic and prognostic value of Presepsin compared with procalcitonin (PCT), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in septic patients in an emergency department (ED) and to investigate Presepsin as a new biomarker of sepsis.

Methods

This study enrolled 859 consecutive patients with at least two diagnostic criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) who were admitted to Beijing Chao-yang Hospital ED from December 2011 to October 2012, and 100 age-matched healthy controls. Patients were stratified into four groups: SIRS, sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock. Plasma Presepsin and serum PCT were measured, and MEDS score and APACHE II score were calculated at enrollment. Comparisons were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann–Whitney U tests.

Results

On admission, the median levels of plasma Presepsin increased with sepsis severity. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves of Presepsin were greater than those of PCT in diagnosing sepsis, and predicting severe sepsis and septic shock. The AUC of Presepsin for predicting 28-day mortality in septic patients was slightly lower than that of PCT, MEDS score and APACHE II score. The AUC of a combination of Presepsin and MEDS score or APACHE II score was significantly higher than that of MEDS score or APACHE II score alone in predicting severe sepsis, and was markedly higher than that of Presepsin alone in predicting septic shock and 28-day mortality in septic patients, respectively. Plasma Presepsin levels in septic patients were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors at 28 days’ follow-up. Presepsin, MEDS score and APACHE II score were found to be independent predictors of severe sepsis, septic shock and 28-day mortality in septic patients. The levels of plasma Presepsin were positively correlated with PCT, MEDS score and APACHE II score in every septic group.

Conclusion

Presepsin is a valuable biomarker for early diagnosis of sepsis, risk stratification, and evaluation of prognosis in septic patients in the ED.     

Predictors of Functional Recovery in Patients Admitted to Geriatric Postacute Rehabilitation

Objective

To examine characteristics associated with functional recovery in older patients undergoing postacute rehabilitation.

Design

Observational study.

Setting

Postacute rehabilitation facility.

Participants

Patients (N=2754) aged ≥65 years admitted over a 4-year period.

Interventions

Not applicable.

Main Outcome Measure

Functional status was assessed at admission and again at discharge. Functional recovery was defined as achieving at least 30% improvement on the Barthel Index score from admission compared with the maximum possible room for improvement.

Results

Patients who achieved functional recovery (70.3%) were younger and were more likely to be women, live alone, and be without any formal home care before admission, and they had fewer chronic diseases (all P<.01). They also had better cognitive status and a higher Barthel Index score both at admission (mean ± SD, 63.3±18.0 vs 59.6±24.7) and at discharge (mean ± SD, 86.8±10.4 vs 62.2±22.9) (all P<.001). In multivariate analysis, patients <75 years of age (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16–1.98; P=.003), women (adjusted OR=1.24; 95% CI, 1.01–1.52; P=.045), patients living alone (adjusted OR=1.61; 95% CI, 1.31–1.98; P<.001), and patients without in-home help prior to admission (adjusted OR=1.39; 95% CI, 1.15–1.69; P=.001) remained at increased odds of functional recovery. In addition, compared with those with moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination score <18), patients with mild-to-moderate impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination score 19–23) and those cognitively intact also had increased odds of functional recovery (adjusted OR=1.56; 95% CI, 1.13–2.15; P=.007; adjusted OR=2.21; 95% CI, 1.67–2.93; P<.001, respectively).

Conclusions

Apart from sociodemographic characteristics, cognition is the strongest factor that identifies older patients more likely to improve during postacute rehabilitation. Further study needs to determine how to best adapt rehabilitation processes to better meet the specific needs of this population and optimize their outcome.     

The impact of do-not-resuscitate order on triage decisions to a medical intensive care unit

Purpose

To determine whether the presence of a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) order impacts on triage decisions to a medical intensive care unit (MICU) of an academic medical center.

Methods

Data were collected on 179 patients in whom MICU consultation was sought and included demographic, clinical information, diagnoses, ICU admission decision, Acute Physiological and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and the presence of DNR order. Functional status was determined retrospectively using the Modified Rankin Score.

Results

The only factor that influenced MICU admission was the presence of DNR order at the time of MICU consultation (odds ratio, 0.25; 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.71, P < .006). There was no difference between the age, APACHE II scores, or functional status between admitted or refused. Medical intensive care unit admission was associated with increased length of stay without difference in mortality.

Conclusion

The presence of a DNR order at the time of MICU consultation was significantly associated with the decision to refuse a patient to the MICU.     

Performance of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score for predicting hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis and septic shock

Objective

The aim of the study was to test if the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score accurately predicts death among emergency department (ED) patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.

Methods

This study was a preplanned secondary analysis of a before-and-after interventional study conducted at a large urban ED. Inclusion criteria were suspected infection, 2 or more criteria for systemic inflammation, and either systolic blood pressure of less than 90 mm Hg after a fluid bolus or lactate 4 mmol/L or higher. Exclusion criteria were: age of less than 18 years, no aggressive care desired, or need for immediate surgery. Clinical and outcomes data were prospectively collected on consecutive eligible patients for 1 year before and 1 year after implementing early goal-directed therapy (EGDT). The MEDS scores and probabilities of in-hospital death were calculated. The main outcome was in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate score performance.

Results

One hundred forty-three patients, 79 pre-EGDT and 64 post-EGDT, were included. The mean age was 58 ± 17 years, and pneumonia was the source of infection in 37%. The in-hospital mortality rate was 23%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for MEDS to predict mortality was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-0.72) overall, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.56-0.82) in pre-EGDT patients, and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.33-0.74) in post-EGDT patients.

Conclusions

The MEDS score performed with poor accuracy for predicting mortality in ED patients with sepsis. These results suggest the need for further validation of the MEDS score before widespread clinical use.     

Predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with end-stage liver disease

Purpose

Critically-ill patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) are at high risk for death during intensive care unit hospitalization, and currently available prognostic models have limited accuracy in this population. We aimed to identify variables associated with in-hospital mortality among critically ill ESLD patients and to develop and validate a simple, parsimonious model for bedside use.

Materials and methods

We performed a retrospective chart review of 653 intensive care unit admissions for ESLD patients; modeled in-hospital mortality using multivariable logistic regression; and compared the predictive ability of several different models using the area under receiver operating characteristic (AU-ROC) curves.

Results

Multivariable predictors of in-hospital mortality included Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, mechanical ventilation, and gender; there was also an interaction between MELD score and gender (P < .02). MELD alone had better discrimination (AU-ROC 0.83) than APACHE II alone (AU-ROC 0.76), and adding mechanical ventilation to MELD achieved the single largest increase in model discrimination (AU-ROC 0.85; P < .01). In a parsimonious, 2-predictor model, higher MELD scores (OR 1.14 per 1-point increase; 95% CI 1.11-1.16), and mechanical ventilation (OR 6.20; 95% CI 3.05–12.58) were associated with increased odds of death. Model discrimination was also excellent in the validation cohort (AU-ROC 0.90).

Conclusions

In critically ill ESLD patients, a parsimonious model including only MELD and mechanical ventilation is more accurate than APACHE II alone for predicting in-hospital mortality. This simple bedside model can provide clinicians and patients with valuable prognostic information for medical decision-making.     

Imipenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection at a medical-surgical intensive care unit: Risk factors and mortality

Objectives

The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors and attributable mortality associated with imipenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (IRPA) infections in a medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was carried out at a 16-bed medical-surgical ICU in a 780-bed, university-affiliated hospital. All patients admitted from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2004, who had nosocomial infection caused by IRPA, were included in the study.

Results

Imipenem-resistant P. aeruginosa was recovered from 63 patients during the study period. One hundred eighty-two controls were matched with cases by period of admission, age, and time at risk. Urinary tract (34.9%) and respiratory tract (22.2%) were the main sources of IRPA isolation. In multivariate analysis, a previous stay in the ICU (odds ratio, 3.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-9.73; P = .03) was the only independent risk factor for IRPA infection. The in-hospital mortality rate among case patients was 49% (31 of 63) compared with 33% (61 of 182) for control patients (odds ratio, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.07-3.44; P = .02). Thus, we had an attributable mortality of 16% (95% CI, 9.74%-22.3%; P = .03).

Conclusions

Our study suggests that IRPA infections are strongly related to previous ICU stay, and that IRPA infections significantly increase mortality in those critical patients.     

Prognostic factors in critically ill cancer patients admitted to the intensive care unit

Objective

The objective of this study is to identify factors predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in cancer patients admitted to a medical ICU.

Patients and methods

We conducted a retrospective study in 162 consecutive cancer patients admitted to the medical ICU of a 1000-bed university hospital between January 2009 and June 2012. Medical history, physical and laboratory findings on admission, and therapeutic interventions during ICU stay were recorded. The study end point was ICU mortality. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for ICU mortality.

Results

The study cohort consisted of 104 (64.2%) patients with solid tumors and 58 patients (35.8%) with hematological malignancies. The major causes of ICU admission were sepsis/septic shock (66.7%) and respiratory failure (63.6%), respectively. Overall ICU mortality rate was 55 % (n = 89). The ICU mortality rates were similar in patients with hematological malignancies and solid tumors (57% vs 53.8%; P = .744). Four variables were independent predictors for ICU mortality in cancer patients: the remission status of the underlying cancer on ICU admission (odds ratio [OR], 0.113; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.027-0.48; P = .003), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.032-1.215; P = .007), sepsis/septic shock during ICU stay (OR, 8.94; 95% CI, 2.28-35; P = .002), and vasopressor requirement (OR 16.84; 95% CI, 3.98-71.24; P = .0001). Although Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.054-1.61; P = .014), admission through emergency service (OR, 0.005; 95% CI, 0.00-0.69; P = .035), and vasopressor requirement during ICU stay (OR, 140.64; 95% CI, 3.59-5505.5; P = .008) were independent predictors for ICU mortality in patients with hematological malignancies, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.29-2.6; P = .001), lactate dehydrogenase level on admission (OR, 1.002; 95% CI, 1-1.005; P = .028), sepsis/septic shock during ICU stay (OR, 138.4; 95% CI, 12.54-1528.4; P = .0001), and complete or partial remission of the underlying cancer (OR, 0.026; 95% CI, 0.002-0.3; P = .004) were the independent risk factors in patients with solid tumors.

Conclusion

Intensive care unit mortality rate was 55% in our cancer patients, which suggests that patients with cancer can benefit from ICU admission. We also found that ICU mortality rates of patients with hematological malignancies and solid tumors were similar.     

Usefulness of intra-abdominal pressure in a predominantly medical intensive care unit

Background

The deleterious effects of elevated intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) have been known for more than a century. The proposed objectives were to measure changes in IAP and analyze increase-related factors and complications and whether high IAP and its persistence are related to complications and mortality in a predominantly medical intensive care unit.

Methods

Over a 1-year period, we conducted a prospective cohort study in which IAP was measured using the bladder method. Hospitalization time, demographic variables, diagnosis on admission, APACHE II score, and clinical complications were recorded.

Results

A total of 130 patients were studied. Overall mean IAP was 12.3 mm Hg (standard deviation [SD], 3.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.7-13), and on the first day, 12.68 mm Hg (SD, 5.32; 95% CI, 11.8-13.6); maximum IAP was 16.4 mm Hg (SD, 4.6; 95% CI, 15.6-17.2). A positive correlation was found between IAP, APACHE (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation) II, and age. Higher IAP values were independently associated with higher age, prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time, need for dialysis, and intolerance to enteral feeding. The value showing the best sensitivity and specificity in predicting mortality was persistence of IAP 20 mm Hg or greater for 4 days or more. The number of days with IAP 20 mm Hg or greater was a factor associated with a higher risk of death (odds ratio, 2.3). Patients who died showed a tendency to increased IAP.

Conclusion

In this study, a threshold IAP of 20 mm Hg and its permanence over time were the best predictive factors of complications and mortality. Among other relationships, we also observed that older patients had higher IAP. High IAP was a cause of intolerance to enteral nutrition.     

Simple translational equations to compare illness severity scores in intensive care trials

Purpose

Comparison of illness severity for intensive care unit populations assessed according to different scoring systems should increase our ability to compare and meta-analyze past and future trials but is currently not possible. Accordingly, we aimed to establish a methodology to translate illness severity scores obtained from one system into another.

Materials and methods

Using the Australian and New-Zealand intensive care adult patient database, we obtained simultaneous admission Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and APACHE III scores and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II in 634 428 patients admitted to 153 units between 2001 and 2010. We applied linear regression analyses to create models enabling translation of one score into another. Sensitivity analyses were performed after removal of diagnostic categories excluded from the original APACHE database, after matching for similar risk of death, after splitting data according to country of origin (Australia or New Zealand) and after splitting admissions occurring before or after 2006.

Results

The translational models were APACHE III = 3.08 × APACHE II + 5.75; APACHE III = 1.47 × SAPS II + 8.6; and APACHE II = 0.36 × SAPS II + 4.4. The area under the receiver operating curve for mortality prediction was 0.853 (95% confidence interval, 0.851-0.855) for the “APACHE II derived APACHE III” score and 0.854 (0.852-0.855) for the “SAPS II derived APACHE III” vs 0.854 (0.852-0.855) for the original APACHE III score. Similarly, it was 0.841 (0.839-0.843) for the “SAPS II derived APACHE II score” vs 0.842 (0.840-0.843) for the original APACHE II score. Correlation coefficients as well as intercepts remained very similar in all subgroups analyses.

Conclusions

Simple and robust translational formulas can be developed to allow clinicians to compare illness severity between studies involving critically ill patients. Further studies in other countries and health care systems are needed to confirm the generalizability of these results.