Using physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models to incorporate chemical and non-chemical stressors into cumulative risk assessment: a case study of pesticide exposures

Cumulative risk assessment has been proposed as an approach to evaluate the health risks associated with simultaneous exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) models can allow for the inclusion and evaluation of multiple stressors, including non-chemical stressors, but studies have not leveraged PBPK/PD models to jointly consider these disparate exposures in a cumulative risk context. In this study, we focused on exposures to organophosphate (OP) pesticides for children in urban low-income environments, where these children would be simultaneously exposed to other pesticides (including pyrethroids) and non-chemical stressors that may modify the effects of these exposures (including diet). We developed a methodological framework to evaluate chemical and non-chemical stressor impacts on OPs, utilizing an existing PBPK/PD model for chlorpyrifos. We evaluated population-specific stressors that would influence OP doses or acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition, the relevant PD outcome. We incorporated the impact of simultaneous exposure to pyrethroids and dietary factors on OP dose through the compartments of metabolism and PD outcome within the PBPK model, and simulated combinations of stressors across multiple exposure ranges and potential body weights. Our analyses demonstrated that both chemical and non-chemical stressors can influence the health implications of OP exposures, with up to 5-fold variability in AChE inhibition across combinations of stressor values for a given OP dose. We demonstrate an approach for modeling OP risks in the presence of other population-specific environmental stressors, providing insight about co-exposures and variability factors that most impact OP health risks and contribute to children's cumulative health risk from pesticides. More generally, this framework can be used to inform cumulative risk assessment for any compound impacted by chemical and non-chemical stressors through metabolism or PD outcomes.     

Non-chemical stressors and cumulative risk assessment: an overview of current initiatives and potential air pollutant interactions

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit from coordination of information from several different scientific disciplines, including, for example, toxicology, epidemiology, nutrition, neurotoxicology, and the social sciences.     

Lung cancer risk associated to exposure to radon and smoking in a case-control study of French uranium miners

A case-control study nested in the cohort of French uranium miners took smoking information into account in investigating the effect of radon exposure on lung cancer risk. This study included 100 miners who died of lung cancer and 500 controls matched for birth period and attained age. Data about radon exposure came from the cohort study, and smoking information was retrospectively determined from a questionnaire and occupational medical records. Smoking status (never vs. ever) was reconstructed for 62 cases and 320 controls. Statistical analyses used conditional logistic regression. The effect of radon exposure on lung cancer risk was assessed with a linear excess relative risk model, and smoking was considered as a multiplicative factor. Mean cumulative radon exposures were 114.75 and 70.84 Working Level Months (WLM) among exposed cases and controls, respectively. The crude excess risk of lung cancer per 100 WLM was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.18-3.08%). When adjusted for smoking, the excess risk was 0.85 per 100 WLM (95% CI: 0.12-2.79%), which is still statistically significant. The relative risk related to smoking was equal to 3.04 (95% CI: 1.20-7.70). This analysis shows a relative risk of lung cancer related to smoking similar to that estimated from previous miners' cohorts. After adjustment for smoking, the effect of radon exposure on lung cancer risk persists, and its estimated risk coefficient is close to that found in the French cohort without smoking information.     

Canadian individual risks of radon-induced lung cancer for different exposure profiles

BACKGROUND: Indoor radon has been determined to be the second leading cause of lung cancer after tobacco smoking. There is an increasing need among radiation practitioners to have numerical values of lung cancer risks for men and women, ever-smokers and never-smokers exposed to radon in homes. This study evaluates individual risks for the Canadian population exposed to radon in homes at different radon concentrations and for different periods of their lives. METHODS: Based on the risk model developed recently by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), individual risks of radon-induced lung cancers are calculated with Canadian age-specific rates for overall and lung cancer mortalities (1996-2000) as well as the Canadian smoking prevalence data in 2002. RESULTS: Convenient tables of lifetime relative risks are constructed for lifetime exposures and short exposures between any two age intervals from 0 to 110, and for various radon concentrations found in homes from 50 to 1000 Bq/m3. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing lung cancer from residential radon exposure increases with radon concentration and exposure duration. For short exposure periods, such as 10 or 20 years, risks are higher in middle age groups (30-50) compared especially to the later years. Individuals could lower their risks significantly by reducing radon levels earlier in life. The tables could help radiation protection practitioners to better communicate indoor radon risk to members of the public.     

Quantitative risk assessment for lung cancer after exposure to bitumen fume

An international cohort of asphalt workers was assembled to study cancer risk after bitumen exposure. This article describes the combination of the exposure assessment with the exposure-response for a quantitative risk assessment for lung cancer mortality within the Dutch component of the study. We identified a retrospective cohort of 3,709 workers with at least one season of employment. Semi-quantitative exposure to bitumen fume was estimated by a job-exposure matrix. Exposure-response relations were fitted by Poisson regression, and excess lifetime risks through age 75 were calculated by a life table method. Working lifetime cumulative exposure to bitumen fume was calculated under different scenarios, representing past and future exposures. For workers with exposures accumulated in the past, excess risks for lung cancer varied from 7.8 to 14.3%. Calculations for future exposures resulted in considerably lower excess risks ranging from 0.6 to 2.6%. The calculated excess risks for lung cancer mortality after working lifetime exposure to bitumen fume depend strongly on when exposure was experienced and to some extent on the exposure-response model chosen, while confounding by smoking cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, the excess lifetime risk for lung cancer in this Dutch cohort of asphalt workers is above benchmark risks as applied by the Dutch Health Council. Current exposure levels have decreased this risk considerably, but further exposure control may be required.     

A case-referent study of lung cancer and incense smoke, smoking, and residential radon in Chinese men

Background: Burning incense generates large amounts of air pollutants, many of which are confirmed or suspected human lung carcinogens.Objectives: We conducted a population-based case-referent study to examine the effect of incense smoke exposure on lung cancer risk among Chinese males and explored the joint effect of cigarette smoking and exposure to residential radon.Methods: We recruited 1,208 male lung cancer incident cases and 1,069 community referents from 2004 to 2006 and estimated their lifetime exposures to incense smoke and other residential indoor air pollutants based on self-reported information collected during interviews. We performed unconditional multivariable logistic regression analysis to estimate the odds ratio (OR) for lung cancer associated with exposure to incense smoke after adjusting for possible confounders. We conducted stratified analyses by smoking status and exposures to incense burning and residential radon and explored the potential additive-scale interactions.Results: We observed an association between incense exposure and lung cancer that was limited primarily to smokers. Cigarette smoking and high cumulative incense exposure at home appeared to have a synergistic effect on lung cancer (compared with never-smokers who never used incense, the OR for lung cancer for smokers who used incense ≥ 60 day-years = 5.00; 95% confidence interval: 3.34, 7.51). Power was limited, but we also found preliminary evidence suggesting that radon exposure may increase risk among smokers using incense.Conclusion: Our study suggests that exposure to incense smoke in the home may increase the risk of lung cancer among smokers and that exposure to radon may further increase risk.     

Toward a more realistic appraisal of the lung cancer risk from radon: the effects of residential mobility.

OBJECTIVES: A consideration of the effects of residential mobility produces much more realistic estimates of typical individuals' radon exposures and mortality risks than those of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). METHODS: A model linking residential mobility, the distribution of radon in US homes, and lung cancer risk is used to simulate lifetime radon exposure, with and without mitigation of high-radon homes, for typical mobile individuals. Radon-related lung cancer mortality risks are then estimated for smokers and never-smokers. RESULTS: Most individuals residing in high-radon homes have equivalent lifelong radon exposures well below those they are currently experiencing. Consequently, actual lung cancer risks are generally well below those implied in the EPA's radon risk charts. For most people who mitigate high-radon homes, risk reduction is modest. CONCLUSIONS: Radon may indeed be responsible for as large a population risk of lung cancer as the EPA estimates. However, caution must be used in interpreting the EPA's risk assessment for individuals; in many cases, mitigation will have little effect on residents' health risks.     

Residential radon exposure and lung cancer: variation in risk estimates using alternative exposure scenarios

The most direct way to derive risk estimates for residential radon progeny exposure is through epidemiologic studies that examine the association between residential radon exposure and lung cancer. However, the National Research Council concluded that the inconsistency among prior residential radon case-control studies was largely a consequence of errors in radon dosimetry. This paper examines the impact of applying various epidemiologic dosimetry models for radon exposure assessment using a common data set from the Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study (IRLCS). The IRLCS uniquely combined enhanced dosimetric techniques, individual mobility assessment, and expert histologic review to examine the relationship between cumulative radon exposure, smoking, and lung cancer. The a priori defined IRLCS radon-exposure model produced higher odds ratios than those methodologies that did not link the subject's retrospective mobility with multiple, spatially diverse radon concentrations. In addition, the smallest measurement errors were noted for the IRLCS exposure model. Risk estimates based solely on basement radon measurements generally exhibited the lowest risk estimates and the greatest measurement error. The findings indicate that the power of an epidemiologic study to detect an excess risk from residential radon exposure is enhanced by linking spatially disparate radon concentrations with the subject's retrospective mobility.     

Clinical measures, smoking, radon exposure, and risk of lung cancer in uranium miners.

OBJECTIVES: Exposure to the radioactive daughters of radon is associated with increased risk of lung cancer in mining populations. An investigation of incidence of lung cancer following a clinical survey of Ontario uranium miners was undertaken to explore whether risk associated with radon is modified by factors including smoking, radiographic silicosis, clinical symptoms, the results of lung function testing, and the temporal pattern of radon exposure. METHODS: Miners were examined in 1974 by a respiratory questionnaire, tests of lung function, and chest radiography. A random selection of 733 (75%) of the original 973 participants was followed up by linkage to the Ontario Mortality and Cancer Registries. RESULTS: Incidence of lung cancer was increased threefold. Risk of lung cancer among miners who had stopped smoking was half that of men who continued to smoke. There was no interaction between smoking and radon exposure. Men with lung function test results consistent with airways obstruction had an increased risk of lung cancer, even after adjustment for cigarette smoking. There was no association between radiographic silicosis and risk of lung cancer. Lung cancer was associated with exposures to radon daughters accumulated in a time window four to 14 years before diagnosis, but there was little association with exposures incurred earlier than 14 years before diagnosis. Among the men diagnosed with lung cancer, the mean and median dose rates were 2.6 working level months (WLM) a year and 1.8 WLM/year in the four to 14 year exposure window. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of lung cancer associated with radon is modified by dose and time from exposure. Risk can be substantially decreased by stopping smoking.     

Predicted reduction in lung cancer risk following cessation of smoking and radon exposure

Recently there has been considerable public and regulatory concern that radon, produced by the decay of naturally occurring uranium, can accumulate in homes, offices, and schools at levels that may substantially increase the risk of lung cancer. The major cause of lung cancer is smoking, and radon appears to interact multiplicatively with smoking in causing lung cancer. Thus, the most effective way to reduce the increased risk of lung cancer resulting from radon exposure is to cease smoking. In this paper, a model for the risks associated with radon exposure that was developed by a committee of the National Academy of Sciences is used to calculate the benefits, in terms of reduction in lifetime risk of lung cancer, of ceasing to smoke, ceasing radon exposure, or ceasing both. Ceasing to smoke is considerably more beneficial than ceasing radon exposure, and thus policymakers addressing the health effects of radon should place priority on encouraging individuals to stop smoking.     

Radon and lung cancer risk: an extension of the mortality follow-up of the Newfoundland fluorspar cohort

Radon is a well-recognized cause of lung cancer, and studies of underground miners have provided invaluable insights on the mechanisms of radon carcinogenesis. Given the dramatic decreases in occupational exposures and the latent interval between the time of exposure and the development of lung cancer, continued follow-up of these cohorts is needed to address uncertainties in risk estimates. Here, we report on the relationship between radon and lung cancer mortality in a cohort of 1,742 Newfoundland fluorspar miners between 1950 and 2001; follow-up has been extended 11 y from previous analyses. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was used to compare the mortality experience of the cohort to similarly aged Newfoundland males. Poisson regression methods were used to characterize the radon-lung cancer relationship with respect to: age at first exposure, attained age, time since last exposure, interactions with cigarette smoking, and exposure rate. In total, 191 lung cancers were observed among underground miners (SMR = 3.09; 95% CI = 2.66, 3.56). ERR/WLMs decreased with attained age and time since last exposure. An inverse dose-rate effect was observed, while age at first exposure was not associated with lung cancer risk. An important strength of this study is that the effects of gamma radiation, thoron, and radioactive dust, common exposures in other miner studies, can be ruled out because the source of radon was from water running through the mine. However, the results should be interpreted cautiously due to uncertainties associated with the estimation of radon exposure levels before ventilation was introduced into the mine, and the relatively small number of lung cancer deaths that precluded joint modeling of multiple risk factors.     

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's assessment of risks from indoor radon

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has updated its assessment of health risks from indoor radon, which has been determined to be the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking. This risk assessment is based primarily on results from a recent study of radon health effects (BEIR VI) by the National Academy of Sciences. In BEIR VI, the National Academy of Sciences fit empirical risk models to data from 11 cohorts of miners, and estimated that each year about 20,000 lung cancer deaths in the U.S. are radon related. A summary, abstracted from the technical report, is given of the EPA's risk assessment results and methods, including some modifications and extensions to the approach used in BEIR VI. Results include numerical estimates of lung cancer deaths per unit exposure, which had not been provided in BEIR VI.     

Lung cancer risk among former uranium miners of the WISMUT Company in Germany

After 1946, the WISMUT Company developed the third-largest uranium-mining province in the world in the German Democratic Republic. METHODS: A case-control study among former WISMUT miners was conducted to investigate the lung cancer risk in relation to attained age, time since exposure, exposure duration, and exposure rate. It consisted of 505 patients with lung cancer and 1,073 controls matched to cases according to the year of birth. The cumulative exposure to radon and radon decay products was calculated as the sum of yearly exposures and expressed in Working Level Months (WLM). Cases had a mean cumulative exposure of 552 WLM compared to 420 WLM in controls. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant increase in lung cancer risk for cumulative exposures above 800 WLM. Under the assumption of a linear risk model, there was a significant increase in the relative risk of 0.10 per 100 WLM after adjusting for smoking and asbestos exposure. For current smokers the increase in relative risk was lower (0.05 per 100 WLM), whereas it was higher (0.20 per 100 WLM) among nonsmokers and longtime ex-smokers. After correcting in a sensitivity analysis for the fact that the controls of this study had a higher average exposure than the population of WISMUT workers they were recruited from, the adjusted ERR increased to 0.24 per 100 WLM. Lung cancer risk declined with time since exposure, except for exposures received 45 or more years ago. No inverse dose rate effect was observed.     

Mortality of a cohort of tin miners 1941-86.

The mortality patterns of United Kingdom tin miners were examined in relation to calendar period and duration of underground work with particular attention to lung cancer and exposure to radon. Subjects were all men who had worked for at least one year between 1941 and 1984 at one of two United Kingdom tin mines and for whom a complete work history could be constructed from mine records. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using national (England and Wales) rates. The pattern of SMRs in relation to potential explanatory variables was analysed using Poisson regression methods. Mortalities from lung cancer and silicosis (including silicotuberculosis) were significantly raised and showed a significant relation with duration of underground work (mortality from stomach cancer was raised in both underground and surface workers, but not significantly). Excess mortality from silica related disease declined steeply from 35% among workers first exposed before 1920 to 1% among those first exposed after 1950. Thirteen surface workers with known exposure to arsenic had high rates of lung and stomach cancer. The SMR for lung cancer showed a consistent pattern in relation to duration of underground exposure, rising from 83 (observed/expected = 8/9.6) for surface workers (without exposure to arsenic) to 447 (15/3.4) for workers with more than 30 years underground exposure. Examination of the SMR for lung cancer by total underground exposure, age, and time since last exposure gave rise to a model for the expression of risk which depends only on total exposure and time since exposure. The fitted model implies that the effect of exposure to radon in a given year has no effect on risk for 10 years, then rapidly rises to a maximum from which the excess risk then declines, halving every 4.3 years. There were no direct measurements of historic radon levels. A conservative estimate based on measurements taken since 1969 by the National Radiological Protection Board and the Mines and Quarries Inspectorate is that the annual dose to an underground worker was about 10 working level months (WLM). Given this assumption, the risk/exposure slope implied by the present data, and the model fitted to it, was somewhat lower than that given in the fourth Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionisation Radiation (BEIR IV) report (about 40% lower for lifetime exposures). The present data also imply different risks depending on the age at exposure, with relatively higher lifetime risks for exposure at older ages, and relatively lower risks for exposures at younger ages. In conclusion, there was a clear relation between exposure to radon and death from lung cancer. The relative risk of lung cancer due to exposure to radon was not constant in cessation of exposure. The lifetime excess risk of lung cancer implied by these data for 40 years exposure at the current statutory limit of four WLM a year starting at age 20, was about 8% (79 excess deaths per 1000 exposed), assuming average smoking habits among the exposed workers. Control of dust concentrations in the mines has substantially reduced--and may have eliminated--direct mortality from silica related disease.     

Mortality of a cohort of tin miners 1941-86

The mortality patterns of United Kingdom tin miners were examined in relation to calendar period and duration of underground work with particular attention to lung cancer and exposure to radon. Subjects were all men who had worked for at least one year between 1941 and 1984 at one of two United Kingdom tin mines and for whom a complete work history could be constructed from mine records. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using national (England and Wales) rates. The pattern of SMRs in relation to potential explanatory variables was analysed using Poisson regression methods. Mortalities from lung cancer and silicosis (including silicotuberculosis) were significantly raised and showed a significant relation with duration of underground work (mortality from stomach cancer was raised in both underground and surface workers, but not significantly). Excess mortality from silica related disease declined steeply from 35% among workers first exposed before 1920 to 1% among those first exposed after 1950. Thirteen surface workers with known exposure to arsenic had high rates of lung and stomach cancer. The SMR for lung cancer showed a consistent pattern in relation to duration of underground exposure, rising from 83 (observed/expected = 8/9.6) for surface workers (without exposure to arsenic) to 447 (15/3.4) for workers with more than 30 years underground exposure. Examination of the SMR for lung cancer by total underground exposure, age, and time since last exposure gave rise to a model for the expression of risk which depends only on total exposure and time since exposure. The fitted model implies that the effect of exposure to radon in a given year has no effect on risk for 10 years, then rapidly rises to a maximum from which the excess risk then declines, halving every 4.3 years. There were no direct measurements of historic radon levels. A conservative estimate based on measurements taken since 1969 by the National Radiological Protection Board and the Mines and Quarries Inspectorate is that the annual dose to an underground worker was about 10 working level months (WLM). Given this assumption, the risk/exposure slope implied by the present data, and the model fitted to it, was somewhat lower than that given in the fourth Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionisation Radiation (BEIR IV) report (about 40% lower for lifetime exposures). The present data also imply different risks depending on the age at exposure, with relatively higher lifetime risks for exposure at older ages, and relatively lower risks for exposures at younger ages. In conclusion, there was a clear relation between exposure to radon and death from lung cancer. The relative risk of lung cancer due to exposure to radon was not constant in cessation of exposure. The lifetime excess risk of lung cancer implied by these data for 40 years exposure at the current statutory limit of four WLM a year starting at age 20, was about 8% (79 excess deaths per 1000 exposed), assuming average smoking habits among the exposed workers. Control of dust concentrations in the mines has substantially reduced--and may have eliminated--direct mortality from silica related disease.     

The impact of declining smoking on radon-related lung cancer in the United States

Objectives. We examined the effect of current patterns of smoking rates on future radon-related lung cancer.Methods. We combined the model developed by the National Academy of Science''s Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) for radon risk assessment with a forecasting model of US adult smoking prevalence to estimate proportional decline in radon-related deaths during the present century with and without mitigation of high-radon houses.Results. By 2025, the reduction in radon mortality from smoking reduction (15 percentage points) will surpass the maximum expected reduction from remediation (12 percentage points).Conclusions. Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that radon in the home is responsible for over 21 000 lung cancer deaths annually among Americans, making radon the major cause of lung cancer after tobacco use. The agency considers radon a major public health problem and, since 1986, has mounted an aggressive campaign urging the public to test their homes for radon and take remedial actions when airborne concentrations of radon exceed 4 picocuries per liter of air (4 pCi/L).¹For its most current risk assessment, the EPA employed the BEIR VI model, developed by the Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS).² The BEIR VI model''s calculation of radon-related risk (as was the case for its predecessor, BEIR IV) was estimated from data on miners, who are subject to much higher levels of radon than is the average population and have shown a significant correlation between lung cancer risk and radon exposure. Although the extrapolation of the results from miners to the much less exposed general public initially caused controversy, the BEIR VI implications of risk have been validated by recent case–control studies at the population level.^3–5 The BEIR VI model is thus broadly accepted as a valid predictor of the radon-related risk for typical individuals.The available data suggest a strong interaction effect between radon exposure and smoking status in the determination of lung cancer risk, which means that smokers are at a much higher risk of dying from radon-induced lung cancer than are nonsmokers. This interaction is recognized in the BEIR VI model, which postulates a superadditive (but less than multiplicative) interaction between smoking and radon. To appreciate the magnitude of this interaction, consider the fact that the background lung cancer risk ratio between ever and never smokers is 13 to 1.⁶ A multiplicative interaction between radon and smoking would imply that, at the same level of radon exposure, the ratio of radon-induced excess risk between ever and never smokers would be the same as the ratio of background lung cancer risks between those 2 groups (i.e., 13 to 1). On the other hand, an additive relationship between radon and smoking would imply that radon would add the same extra risk to ever and never smokers exposed to the same dosage, making the excess risks ratio between the 2 groups equal 1 to 1. Using the BEIR VI model, the EPA calculates that, at a radon level of 4 pCi/L, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer death is 62 per 1000 for ever smokers and 7 per 1000 for never smokers, yielding an excess risk ratio of 8.86 to 1 between the 2 groups.¹ As 8.86 falls between 1 and 13, the BEIR VI model implies that radon adds more risk to ever smokers than to never smokers, but that excess risk is less than proportional to the lung cancer background risk of those 2 groups, suggesting a submultiplicative (but superadditive) relationship between smoking and radon. The BEIR VI model does not distinguish between current and former smokers.Given this implied superadditive interaction, the number of future radon deaths will heavily depend on population smoking rates. As smoking rates in the United States have been falling for several decades and are expected to continue declining, the overall magnitude of the radon death toll is likely to decline as well. The question we try to address is what is the magnitude of this expected decline?We extend the EPA''s analysis by examining the sensitivity of radon-related lung cancer in the United States to future smoking rates. We estimate the proportional decline in the number of lung cancer deaths caused by radon for the period 2006 through 2100, assuming a likely scenario for smoking rates. We do not forecast specific numbers of radon-induced lung cancer deaths because these numbers will depend on many factors likely to change over such a long period of time. Instead, we concentrate on the relative impact of the smoking decline on the overall radon death toll and also examine the benefits of remediating houses with high radon levels given the results of our analysis. Following the EPA''s approach, in our computations, we employ the BEIR VI model, thereby assuming a submultiplicative relationship between smoking and radon. In the remaining sections of the report, we discuss the assumptions, models, and data employed in our analysis, our findings, and the implications of the results for both the magnitude of radon-related risk to the population and the effectiveness of housing remediation in reducing such risk.     

Relative risk models for assessing the joint effects of multiple factors

A goal of analyses of occupational cohort data is the specification of how covariate information relates to age-specific disease risks. In describing this relationship, certain assumptions or models must be defined. For example, the usual standardized mortality ratio assumes a constant multiplicative increase in the age and calendar period disease rates of an exposed cohort over rates in a unexposed referent group. For analyzing several exposures, some of which may be continuous, such as cumulative dose, dose rate, duration of employment, and smoking patterns, or for analyzing complex associations between disease rate and covariates, flexible regression procedures are required. Using a crossclassification of the data and a Poisson probability model, relative risk regression methods are outlined. Breslow and Storer [1985], Guerrero and Johnson [1982], and Thomas [1981] propose general models for the relative risk as alternatives to, but which include, the usual exponential form. We review these models, discuss some limitations (in particular when there is more than one covariate) and present alternatives. Methods and models are illustrated by examining the joint effects of radon exposure and tobacco use on lung cancer mortality among a group of uranium miners.     

Radon and lung cancer risk: taking stock at the millenium

Radon is a well-established human carcinogen for which extensive data are available, extending into the range of exposures experienced by the general population. Mounting epidemiologic evidence on radon and lung cancer risk, now available from more than 20 different studies of underground miners and complementary laboratory findings, indicates that risks are linear in exposure without threshold. Radon is also a ubiquitous indoor air pollutant in homes, and risk projections imply that radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Recommended control strategies in the United States and other countries, which include testing of most homes and mitigation of those exceeding guideline levels, have been controversial. Further research is needed, drawing on molecular and cellular approaches and continuing the follow-up of the underground miner cohorts, and scientists should work toward constructing mechanistically based models that combine epidemiologic and experimental data to yield risk estimates with enhanced certainty.     

Cumulative risk assessment: an overview of methodological approaches for evaluating combined health effects from exposure to multiple environmental stressors

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain.