结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率新评分系统的建立和评价

目的建立预测术后病死率的改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM评分系统并与POSSUM比较，评价其对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率的预测能力。方法调查北京大学第三医院1992-2005年间结直肠癌经手术切除的903例患者资料，按70：30把本组病例分成建立模型样本和预测模型样本，用Logistic回归分析建立改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM，用ROC曲线分析判断改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM评分的判别能力，用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验判断评分的拟合优度，用不同危险因素群的O：E值判断评分的预测能力。结果本组患者住院期间的病死率为1．0％（9／903）。POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM评分预测的病死率明显高于实际病死率，O：E值分别为0．18、0．35和0．20。改良P-POSSUM除在急诊手术和姑息手术中判别能力较差外，在其他手术中都具有较好的判别能力，在所有手术中预测的死亡率与实际死亡率接近（O：E值为0．91）；改良Cr-POSSUM除在姑息手术中有很好的判别能力外，在评价模型样本和急诊手术预测的死亡率高于实际死亡率，但仍在实际死亡率95％的可信区间内（0：E值为0．78）。两者的预测能力都好于POSSUM。结论POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM在中国结直肠癌手术中预测的病死率高于实际病死率。改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM可较准确地预测中国结直肠癌患者手术住院期间病死率。     

五种结直肠癌评分系统对中国患者的预测价值

目的 评价5种结直肠癌评分预测系统对中国结直肠癌患者术后病死率的预测能力.方法 回顾性研究904例结直肠癌手术病例,其中结肠癌525例,直肠癌379例.分别使用Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity(POSSUM)、Portsmouth POSSUM(P-POSSUM)、colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM)、Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI)、Cleveland Clinic Foundation Colorectal Cancer Model (CCF-CCM)5种评分系统,对结直肠癌患者术后30 d内病死率进行预测.将预测结果与实际情况进行比较,并比较各系统之间的预测能力.主要通过受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC)判断各评分系统的判别能力.结果 各评分系统的ROC曲线下面积分别为POSSUM 0.882,P-POSSUM 0.885,CR-POSSUM 0.844,ACPGBI0.78,CCF-CCM 0.809. 结论 5种结直肠癌预测评分系统对于中国患者的预测高于实际情况.POSSUM,P-POSSUM,CR-POSSUM对中国结直肠癌术后患者30 d病死率的预测好于ACPGBI、CCF-CCM系统.     

POSSUM、P-POSSUM、Cr-POSSUM及新评分系统对中国结直肠癌患者术后死亡率的预测

RenL、UpadhyayAM及WangL比较好计算死亡率及并发症发病率的生理学和手术侵袭度评分系统（POSSUM）、朴茨茅斯评分系统（P—POSSUM）和结直肠评分系统（Cr-POSSUM）预测中国结直肠癌患者外科手术死亡率的准确性,同时开发新的评分系统以提高其预测准确性。     

POSSUM评分系统预测肝癌患者术后并发症发生率及病死率的意义

目的 :探讨POSSUM评分系统预测肝癌患者术后并发症发生率及病死率的临床意义。方法 :2009~2014年294例手术治疗的肝癌患者进行POSSUM及P-POSSUM评分,预测术后并发症发生率及病死率,并分别与实际并发症发生率及病死率比较。结果:POSSUM评分系统预测并发症发生率18%(53/294),实际发生率14%(42/294),差异无统计学意义(P=0.218),预测病死率5.1%(15/294),实际病死率1.02%(3/294),差异有统计学意义(P=0.004)。P-POSSUM预测病死率2.4%(7/294),实际病死率1.02%(3/294),差异无统计学意义(P=0.339)。结论:POSSUM评分系统能够较准确地预测肝癌患者术后并发症的发生率,但高估了术后病死率,P-POSSUM预测术后病死率更为准确。     

POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统对老年股骨颈骨折手术风险的预测研究

目的 探讨生理学和手术严重度评分系统,即POSSUM和P-POSSOM评分系统,对老年股骨颈骨折手术的手术风险预测价值.方法 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院骨科于2010年1月-2012年5月收治因股骨颈骨折行人工关节置换手术治疗的老年患者108例,应用POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统预测患者手术病死率和并发症发病率,分析人工髋关节置换手术风险预测值和观察值之间的差异.同时对病例资料进行分组比较,分析不同组别间的预测情况是否存在差异.结果 根据POSSUM评分系统预测,47例患者术后发生并发症,平均并发症发病率为43.52％,而实际发生并发症37例,实际并发症发病率为34.26％,预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.238);预测11例死亡,平均病死率为10.19％,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85％,预测值明显高于实际值.根据P-POSSUM评分系统预测的病死率(预测死亡4例,平均病死率为3.70％,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85％),预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.625).以POSSUM评分得分40分为界分组,两组并发症发病率及病死率的预测值与实际值分组比较差异无统计学意义(P =0.527,P =0.285).结论 POSSUM评分系统能较好地预测老年股骨颈骨折手术患者并发症发病率,但过高估计手术病死率;P-POSSUM评分系统能准确地预测手术病死率,对于高危组患者的预测结果尤为满意.     

POSSUM及P-POSSUM对胃肠外科手术风险度的评价

目的探讨术前使用POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统对预测胃肠外科患者术后并发症和病死率的准确性。方法以POSSUM和P-POSSUM各项指标及常见临床影响因素为参考,对近1年内泸州医学院附属医院普外科收治的633例胃肠外科手术患者进行前瞻性的评估,并与患者实际并发症、死亡情况进行比较。以Logistic回归分析,非参数独立样本t检验,ROC曲线,预测和实际病死率及并发症符合度(OE比率)等统计学方法评价POSSUM及P-POSSUM预测的准确性。结果POSSUM预测并发症发生数为229例,实际发生数为188例;P-POSSUM预测死亡数为44例,实际死亡数为34例,差异均无统计学意义(P0.05);在高危机组(R138,R250)预测更具准确性,预测和实际病死率和并发症率符合度等于1;而在低危机组(R138,R250)则其死亡发生率被高估,预测和实际病死率和并发症率符合度大于1。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,肝功能、血糖、体高比、手术时间和术中血压的平稳因素与术后并发症和病死率均有相关性。结论对于胃肠外科患者,POSSUM预测其并发症率和P-POSSUM预测其病死率有良好的相关性。     

POSSUM、(P、Cr)-POSSUM、APGBI评分系统预测结直肠癌术后死亡率的研究

目的：评价POSSUM、（P、Cr）-POSSUM、APGBI评分系统对预测结直肠癌术后死亡率的效果。方法：采用POSSUM、（P、Cr）-POSSUM、APGBI评分系统预测120例结直肠癌患者（分为中年组、老年组、总体）术后死亡率，并比较实际发生率与理论预测率的差异。结果：120例结直肠癌患者中，实际死亡率为1．67％（2例），中年组实际死亡率0％，老年组实际死亡率2．67％。POSSUM、P—POSSUM预测各组死亡率均高于实际水平；Cr—POSSUM、APGBI评分系统在预测总体水平及老年组时，理论预测率与实际死亡率比较无明显差异（x^2=0．839，P〉0．05），而预测中年患者预测值稍高于实际水平。结论：APGBI及Cr-POSSUM评分系统能较准确地评估结直肠癌患者手术风险性。     

改良POSSUM及P-POSSUM评分在老年髋部骨折手术风险评估中的应用价值

目的 应用改良的生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM及P-POSSUM)对老年髋部骨折手术死亡率和并发症率进行评估探讨对手术风险评估的价值.方法 应用POSSUM及P-POSSUM,预测191例老年髋部骨折术后30 d内并发症率及死亡率,比较其预测价值.以并发症率50%为界,分为中低风险组(101例)及高风险组(9...     

基于预测评分系统的高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症的预防策略

目的探讨高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生的危险因素和预防策略。方法收集2006年1月至2009年12月间北京大学人民医院胃肠外科收治并行手术治疗的107例高龄结直肠癌患者（75岁以上）的临床资料。应用POSSUM、E．POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率,并用ROC曲线及实际例数／预测例数（O／E）比值评估其效度：采用Logistic回归分析影响并发症发生的独立危险因素。结果E．POSSUM和POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率分别为13．9％。86．6％（平均32．7％）和19．1％～99．1％（平均55．5％）,E—POSSUM评分系统优于POSSUM评分系统[ROC曲线下面积（AUC值）：0．862比0．576];O／E：0．771比0．454,更加接近于实际并发症发生率（25．2％,27／107）。术前合并糖尿病（P=0．019）和发病部位为直肠（P=0．005）是手术相关并发症的独立危险因素：吻合口瘘为最常见的手术相关并发症;术前合并慢性阻塞性肺病（P=0．026）、术前ASA分级（P_0．025）、术前肠梗阻（P=0．037）及术前肠穿孔（P=0．001）是非手术相关并发症的独立危险因素：肺部感染是最常见的非手术相关并发症。结论术前应用E—POSSUM评分系统可对高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生率进行较为准确的预测：对于并发症发生高危患者术前应积极干预高危因素．以预防术后并发症的发生。     

基于预测评分系统的高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症的预防策略

目的 探讨高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生的危险因素和预防策略.方法 收集2006年1月至2009年12月间北京大学人民医院胃肠外科收治并行手术治疗的107例高龄结直肠癌患者(75岁以上)的临床资料.应用POSSUM、E-POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率,并用ROC曲线及实际例数／预测例数(O/E)比值评估其效度;采用Logistic回归分析影响并发症发生的独立危险因素.结果 E-POSSUM和POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率分别为13.9％～86.6％(平均32.7％)和19.1％～99.1％(平均55.5％),E-POSSUM评分系统优于POSSUM评分系统[ ROC曲线下面积(AUC值):0.862比0.576];O/E:0.771比0.454,更加接近于实际并发症发生率(25.2％,27/107).术前合并糖尿病(P=0.019)和发病部位为直肠(P=0.005)是手术相关并发症的独立危险因素;吻合口瘘为最常见的手术相关并发症;术前合并慢性阻塞性肺病(P=0.026)、术前ASA分级(P=0.025)、术前肠梗阻(P=0.037)及术前肠穿孔(P=0.001)是非手术相关并发症的独立危险因素;肺部感染是最常见的非手术相关并发症.结论 术前应用E-POSSUM评分系统可对高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生率进行较为准确的预测;对于并发症发生高危患者术前应积极干预高危因素,以预防术后并发症的发生.     

Mortality rate prediction by Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM and Colorectal POSSUM and the development of new scoring systems in Chinese colorectal cancer patients

Background

The aim of this study was to compare the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and Colorectal POSSUM (Cr-POSSUM) for predicting surgical mortality in Chinese colorectal cancer patients and to create new scoring systems to achieve better prediction.

Methods

Data from 903 patients undergoing surgery for colon and rectal cancers from 1992 to 2005 at Peking University Third Hospital were included in this study. POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and Cr-POSSUM were used to predict mortality. Stepwise logistic regression was used to develop the modified P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM. Their performances were tested by receiver operating characteristic curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, and observed:expected ratio.

Results

The actual inpatient mortality was 1.0% (9 of 903). The predicted mortality of POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and Cr-POSSUM were 5.6%, 2.8%, and 4.8%, respectively, which were significantly higher than the actual mortality in our cohort. The predicted mortality of the modified P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM was very close to the observed mortality. Both the modified models offered better accuracy than P-POSSUM.

Conclusions

The predicted mortality of POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and Cr-POSSUM were significantly higher than the observed mortality in our patients. The modified P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM models provided an accurate prediction of inpatient mortality rate in colorectal cancer patients in China.     

Comparison of the possum, P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM scoring systems as predictors of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing major colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND: Physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), 'Portsmouth'-physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) and 'Colorectal'-physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (Cr-POSSUM) are three related scoring systems, which uses individual patient parameters to predict postoperative mortality. POSSUM overpredicts mortality in low-risk patients and underpredicts mortality in elderly and emergency patients. P-POSSUM was developed to compensate for these weaknesses. Cr-POSSUM was developed specifically for colorectal surgery. We aim to establish which of these scoring systems would be most useful in an Australasian context. METHODS: Data were collected for 308 patients and predicted mortality risk values were generated using each of the three systems. The Mann-Whitney U-test was then carried out on the scores for each system. Receiver-operator characteristic curves were designed to determine the relative accuracy of each approach at discriminating between death and survival. RESULTS: All three POSSUM scoring systems showed a statistically significant ability to predict postoperative mortality. Additionally, in each system there was a significant difference in the raw physiologic and operative severity scores between survivors and those who died. A risk-stratification model was applied to each set of data, showing a correlation between an increase in risk and an increase in mortality rate. Finally, the receiver-operator characteristic curves generated showed that in this study group POSSUM, P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM were all satisfactory predictive tools although the latter tended to be relatively less accurate. CONCLUSION: Physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity, P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM are all reliable predictors of postoperative mortality in the Australasian context; although there was a trend towards POSSUM and P-POSSUM being better predictors than Cr-POSSUM. However, Cr-POSSUM requires fewer individual patient parameters to be calculated and is thus easier to generate. An ideal preoperative scoring system remains to be developed for predicting mortality in patients undergoing colorectal surgery.     

POSSUM and P-POSSUM for risk-adjusted audit of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy

BACKGROUND: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a scoring system that is used widely to predict 30-day mortality and morbidity rates. The Portsmouth predictor modification (P-POSSUM) was developed to overcome the overprediction of mortality by POSSUM, especially in low-risk patients. In this prospective study, the validity of POSSUM and P-POSSUM was tested in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in a referral hospital of a developing country. METHODS: Some 120 patients who underwent emergency laparotomy in a single unit were studied. Predicted morbidity and mortality rates were calculated by POSSUM and P-POSSUM equations using both linear regression and the exponential methods of analysis. These were compared with actual outcomes. RESULTS: When the linear method of analysis was used POSSUM overpredicted morbidity, and there was a significant difference between the observed and predicted values (observed to expected (O : E) ratio 0.68). The prediction was more accurate when the exponential method was used (O : E ratio 0.91). POSSUM also significantly overpredicted mortality when analysed by the linear method (O : E ratio 0.39), but the prediction improved when exponential analysis was used (O : E ratio 0.62). Applying linear and exponential analyses for P-POSSUM, the O : E ratios for mortality were 0.66 and 0.88 respectively. CONCLUSION: If analysed correctly POSSUM is a good predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. P-POSSUM predicts mortality equally well. Both equations may be used for risk-adjusted surgical audit of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.     

Validation of risk assessment scoring systems for an audit of elective surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in elderly patients: an audit

The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems for predicting the mortality in elective neurosurgical patients

A simple way of evaluating surgical outcomes is to compare mortality and morbidity. Such comparisons may be misleading without a proper case mix. The POSSUM scoring system was developed to overcome this problem. The score can be used to derive predictive mortality and morbidity for surgical procedures. POSSUM and a modified version P-POSSUM have been evaluated in various groups of surgical patients for the accuracy of predicting mortality. These scoring systems have not been evaluated in neurosurgical patients. Thus, we tried to evaluate the usefulness of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in neurosurgical patients in predicting in-hospital mortality. POSSUM physiological and operative variables were collected from all neurosurgical patients undergoing elective craniotomy, from April 2005 to Feb 2006. In-hospital mortality was obtained from the hospital mortality register. The physiological score, operative score, POSSUM predicted mortality rate and P-POSSUM predicted mortality rate were calculated using a calculator. The observed number of deaths was compared against the predicted deaths. A total of 285 patients with a mean age of 38 +/- 15 years were studied. Overall observed mortality was nine patients (3.16%). The mortality predicted by the P-POSSUM model was also nine patients (3.16%). Mortality predicted by POSSUM was poor with predicted deaths in 31 patients (11%). The difference between observed and predicted deaths at different risk levels was not significant with P-POSSUM (p = 0.424) and was significantly different with POSSUM score (p < 0.001). P-POSSUM scoring system was highly accurate in predicting the overall mortality in neurosurgical patients. In contrast, POSSUM score was not useful for prediction of mortality.     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in assessing outcome after laparoscopic colectomy

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to compare the actual and predicted risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality after laparoscopic colectomy (LAC) calculated using both the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) scoring systems. METHODS: All patients who underwent LAC performed by a single surgeon between March 1999 and December 2000 were analysed. The observed morbidity and mortality rates were compared with those predicted by the POSSUM scoring system, and the observed mortality rate with that predicted by P-POSSUM. The operative severity component of the operative score was sequentially decreased from 4 (standard score for open colectomy) to 2, then 1, in an attempt to correct overprediction. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-one consecutive patients underwent LAC, with a conversion rate of 8.0 per cent. The morbidity rate (6.8 per cent) was significantly lower than the predicted rates calculated with an operative score of 4 or 2 (12.4 per cent, P < 0.001; 9.6 per cent, P = 0.001), but was fully corrected with an operative score of 1 (7.0 per cent, P = 0.325). The observed mortality rate (0.8 per cent) was significantly different from the expected mortality rates calculated using either uncorrected POSSUM (9.6 per cent, P = 0.001) or P-POSSUM (3.5 per cent, P = 0.001). POSSUM (2.6 per cent, P = 0.007) continued to overpredict mortality but P-POSSUM (1.0 per cent, P = 0.001) accurately predicted mortality with an operative score of 1. CONCLUSION: LAC appeared to be associated with lower morbidity and mortality rates than those predicted by the POSSUM scoring system, and with a lower mortality rate than that predicted using the P-POSSUM system.     

Predictive Value of POSSUM and ACPGBI Scoring in Mortality and Morbidity of Colorectal Resection: A Case–Control Study

Background  

Preoperative risk prediction to assess mortality and morbidity may be helpful to surgical decision making. The aim of this study was to compare mortality and morbidity of colorectal resections performed in a tertiary referral center with mortality and morbidity as predicted with physiological and operative score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). The second aim of this study was to analyze the accuracy of different POSSUM scores in surgery performed for malignancy, inflammatory bowel diseases, and diverticulitis. POSSUM scoring was also evaluated in colorectal resection in acute vs. elective setting. In procedures performed for malignancy, the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) score was assessed in the same way for comparison.     

Evaluation of outcome of laparoscopic colorectal resection with POSSUM, Portsmouth POSSUM and colorectal POSSUM

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth (P) POSSUM and colorectal (CR) POSSUM in laparoscopic colorectal resection. METHODS: Observed mortality and morbidity rates in 400 patients who underwent laparoscopic colorectal resection were compared with those predicted by POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM. RESULTS: Observed mortality and morbidity rates were 0.5 and 19.0 per cent respectively. Mortality rates predicted by POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM were 10.8, 4.0 and 5.6 per cent respectively, and the morbidity rate predicted by POSSUM was 43.0 per cent. The predicted and observed mortality and morbidity rates showed significant lack of fit. The conversion rate to open surgery was 11.5 per cent. The mortality rate for patients having conversion was 2 per cent and was not significantly different to that predicted by P-POSSUM (4 per cent; P = 0.493) or CR-POSSUM (5 per cent; P = 0.370). In this group, the observed and POSSUM-predicted morbidity rates were also similar (43 versus 48 per cent respectively; P = 0.104). CONCLUSION: POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM overestimated mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent laparoscopic colorectal resection. However, the mortality rate in patients who required conversion fitted the models of P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM, and the morbidity rate was comparable to that predicted by POSSUM.     

Prospective comparison of POSSUM and P-POSSUM with clinical assessment of mortality following emergency surgery

BACKGROUND: Tools to accurately estimate the risk of death following emergency surgery are useful adjuncts to informed consent and clinical decisions. This prospective study compared the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) scoring systems with clinical judgement in predicting mortality from emergency surgery. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively from 163 patients. Details of the physiological and operative severity scores were recorded for POSSUM and P-POSSUM. The estimates of both the surgeon and anaesthetist for 30-day and in-hospital mortality were also recorded pre-operatively. The accuracies of the four predictions were then compared with actual mortalities using linear and exponential analysis and receiver operator characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: P-POSSUM gave the most accurate prediction of 30-day mortality using linear analysis [observed to expected ratio (O : E) = 1.0]. POSSUM gave the most accurate prediction using exponential analysis (O : E = 1.15). Clinical judgement of mortality from both operating surgeons and anaesthetists compared favourably with the scoring systems for 30-day mortality (O : E = 0.83 and O : E = 0.93, respectively). ROC analyses showed both clinical judgement and the POSSUM scores to be good predictors of 30-day mortality with area under the curve values (AUC) of 0.903, 0.907, 0.946 and 0.940 for surgeons, anaesthetists, POSSUM and P-POSSUM respectively. CONCLUSIONS: POSSUM and P-POSSUM appear to be useful indicators for the prediction of mortality. Clinical judgement compares strongly with scoring systems in predicting post-operative mortality, but may underestimate mortality in very high-risk patients with more than 90% mortality.