Health and economic impact of rotavirus vaccination in GAVI-eligible countries

Background  

Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately borne by children in low-income countries. Recently the World Health Organization (WHO) has released a global recommendation that all countries include infant rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization programs. Our objective was to provide information on the expected health, economic and financial consequences of rotavirus vaccines in the 72 GAVI support-eligible countries.     

Health and economic outcomes of HPV 16,18 vaccination in 72 GAVI-eligible countries

The risk of dying from cervical cancer is disproportionately borne by women in developing countries. Two new vaccines are highly effective in preventing HPV 16,18 infection, responsible for approximately 70% of cervical cancer, in girls not previously infected. The GAVI Alliance (GAVI) provides technical assistance and financial support for immunization in the world's poorest countries. Using population-based and epidemiologic data for 72 GAVI-eligible countries we estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted years of life (DALYs) averted and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) associated with HPV 16,18 vaccination of young adolescent girls. In addition to vaccine coverage and efficacy, relative and absolute cancer reduction depended on underlying incidence, proportion attributable to HPV types 16 and 18, population age-structure and competing mortality. With 70% coverage, mean reduction in the lifetime risk of cancer is below 40% in some countries (e.g., Nigeria, Ghana) and above 50% in others (e.g., India, Uganda, Kenya). At I$10 per vaccinated girl (approximately $2.00 per dose assuming three doses, plus wastage, administration, program support) vaccination was cost-effective in all countries using a per capita GDP threshold; for 49 of 72 countries, the cost per DALY averted was less than I$100 and for 59 countries, it was less than I$200. Taking into account country-specific assumptions (per capita GNI, DPT3 coverage, percentage of girls who are enrolled in fifth grade) for the year of introduction, percent coverage achieved in the first year, and years to maximum coverage, a 10-year modeled scenario prevented the future deaths of approximately 2 million women vaccinated as adolescents. Despite favorable cost-effectiveness, assessment of financial costs raised concerns about affordability; as the cost per vaccinated girl was increased from I$10 to I$25 (approximately $2 to $5 per dose), the financial costs for the 10-year scenario increased from >US$ 900 million to US$ 2.25 billion. Provided high coverage of young adolescent girls is feasible, and vaccine costs are lowered, HPV 16,18 vaccination could be very cost-effective even in the poorest countries, and provide comparable value for resources to other new vaccines such as rotavirus.     

Projected health benefits and costs of pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination in Uganda

We determined impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination programs among children < 5 years of age in Uganda from the public health system perspective. Disease-specific models compared the disease burden and cost with and without a vaccination program. If introduced, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccine programs will save 10,796 and 5265 lives, respectively, prevent 94,071 Streptococcus pneumoniae and 94,729 rotavirus cases in children < 5 years, and save 3886 and 996 million Ugandan shillings ($2.3 and $0.6 million US dollars), respectively, in direct medical costs annually. At the GAVI price ($0.15/dose), pneumococcal vaccine will be cost-saving and rotavirus vaccine highly cost-effective.     

Projected impact,cost-effectiveness,and budget implications of rotavirus vaccination in Mongolia

Introduction

Rotavirus disease in Mongolia is estimated to cause more than 50 deaths yearly and many more cases and hospitalizations. Mongolia must self-finance new vaccines and does not automatically access Gavi prices for vaccines. Given the country’s limited resources for health, it is critical to assess potential new vaccine programs. This evaluation estimates the impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications associated with a nationwide rotavirus vaccine introduction targeting infants as part of the national immunization program in Mongolia, in order to inform decision-making around introduction.

Projected health impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination among children <5 years of age in China

Introduction

Two rotavirus vaccines have been licensed globally since 2006. In China, only a lamb rotavirus vaccine is licensed and several new rotavirus vaccines are in development. Data regarding the projected health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of children in China against rotavirus will assist policy makers in developing recommendations for vaccination.

Methods

Using a Microsoft Excel model, we compared the national health and economic burden of rotavirus disease in China with and without a vaccination program. Model inputs included 2007 data on burden and cost of rotavirus outcomes (deaths, hospitalizations, outpatient visits), projected vaccine efficacy, coverage, and cost. Cost-effectiveness was measured in US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and US dollars per life saved.

Results

A 2-dose rotavirus vaccination program could annually avert 3013 (62%) deaths, 194,794 (59%) hospitalizations and 1,333,356 (51%) outpatient visits associated with rotavirus disease in China. The medical break-even price of the vaccine is $1.19 per dose. From a societal perspective, a vaccination program would be highly cost-effective in China at the vaccine price of $2.50 to $5 per dose, and be cost-effective at the price of $10 to $20 per dose.

Conclusions

A national rotavirus vaccination program could be a cost-effective measure to effectively reduce deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits due to rotavirus disease in China.     

Establishing the health and economic impact of influenza vaccination within the European Union 25 countries

BACKGROUND: In 2003, the World Health Assembly (WHA) issued a resolution for prevention and control of influenza pandemics and annual epidemics, which urges the European Union 25 (EU-25) Member States to (1) establish and implement strategies to increase vaccination coverage of all people at high risk, including the elderly and people with underlying disease, with the goal of attaining vaccination coverage of the elderly population of at least 50% by 2006 and 75% by 2010; (2) to assess the disease burden and economic impact of annual influenza epidemics as a basis for framing and implementing influenza prevention policies. This resolution was reinforced by the European Union (EU), where Member States agreed to make additional efforts to improve uptake on their territory in accordance with their own recommendations and to achieve the World Health Organisation (WHO) target of 75% in high risk groups before 2010. It was also noted that the changing demographic profile of the EU population would result in an increasing number of elderly people falling within the current target groups. OBJECTIVES: To establish the number of people who may be eligible for influenza vaccination in the EU, and estimate the costs and consequences of not vaccinating this population for five EU Member States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. METHODS: A mathematical model has previously been developed, in which vaccine distribution data are combined with demographic and health economics data to model the public health consequences of influenza and possible intervention strategies. We have extended that model using specific EU-25 demographic data on populations at risk of influenza during the inter-pandemic period. For each country, the total population and age breakdown was calculated to estimate the percentage of the population that falls under the WHA recommendations. Other target groups for influenza vaccination were identified by analysing estimating the proportion of the population with respiratory or cardiovascular related diseases, diabetes, AIDS or transplantation, as well as health care professionals. Target population size and possible vaccination coverage rates across the EU-25 Member States, along with the potential cost and health consequence impact is estimated. RESULTS: For the EU-25, it was estimated that up to 49.1% of the population (or 223.4 million people) should be vaccinated against influenza. This ranged from 41.6% in Cyprus to 56.4% in the UK. There were, on average, 174 vaccine doses distributed per 1000 population within the EU-25, which leads to an average vaccination rate of the target population of 35.4% based on current supply constraints. As a consequence, up to 144.4 million people who could be considered "at risk" may not currently be vaccinated. Implementing a 100% vaccination rate programme for all risk groups across the EU-25 would lead to an estimated reduction of number of influenza cases of 7.22 million, 1.96 million reduced PCP visits for influenza treatment, 796,743 less hospital admissions and 68,537 fewer influenza related deaths for all EU-25 countries. The implementation of a 100% vaccination rate programme for all risk groups in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK would require an additional 1.52 billion Euro. This would result in estimated savings of 39.45 million Euro of reduced primary care visits and further savings of 1.59 billion Euro in reduced hospitalisations respectively in these countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is a gap between current vaccination coverage and the EU recommendations. The public health consequences of low vaccination coverage include increased morbidity, hospitalisations and mortality associated with influenza-related complications. This model is a powerful tool to: (1) support EU public health officials in implementing recommendations; (2) to visualize the need for increased vaccination rates for better influenza control; (3) the consequences of low vaccine coverage.     

The economic impact of the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination on rotavirus gastroenteritis related hospitalisations in children in Ireland

BackgroundRotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE), a vaccine preventable disease, remains a common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children globally. Ireland introduced the universal rotavirus vaccination to the national immunisation programme in 2016. In this paper the economic impact on RVGE related hospitalisations amongst children under 5 years is examined.MethodsUsing national data from all Irish public hospitals, an Interrupted Times Series Analysis (ITSA) compares RVGE hospitalisations amongst children under 5 years, pre- and post-vaccine introduction. Costs are estimated and ITSA results are compared to the counterfactual to estimate the economic impact of the vaccine. A probit model examines patient characteristics pre- and post-vaccine introduction.ResultsVaccine introduction coincided with lowered RVGE related hospitalisations. While this effect was delayed (1 year) there is evidence of a sustained impact. RVGE patients' post-vaccine introduction were likely to be over 2 years (p = 0.001) and length of stay was lower on average (p = 0.095). The counterfactual analysis revealed 492 RVGE hospitalisations were avoided on average annually since the introduction of the vaccine. This has an estimated economic value of €0.92 million per annum.ConclusionsFollowing the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in Ireland, hospitalisations for RVGE decreased significantly and those hospitalised were older and with a reduced length of stay on average. This has the potential for significant cost savings for the Irish healthcare system.     

An economic analysis of rotavirus vaccination in Italy

We have evaluated health and economic benefits of a universal infant vaccination with two rotavirus vaccines registered in Italy, on the bases of the burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in a birth cohort of 520,000 Italian infants followed until 5 years of age. Estimates from published and unpublished sources of disease burden, costs, vaccine coverage, efficacy trials of both vaccines, and price were used to estimate cost-effectiveness from the perspectives of the Italian National Health Service (NHS) and society. According to our estimates, a universal rotavirus vaccination program would avoid 10,679 hospitalizations, 39,202 emergency visits, and 44,223 at home visits. At €65.6 per vaccination courses, the program would cost €30,700,800 and realize a net loss of €9,057,928 from the Italian NHS perspective. On the contrary, the program would provide a net savings of €24,324,198 from the societal perspective. From the Italian NHS perspective, the break-even price per vaccination course should be reduced at least to €46.25 to achieve a zero cost-effectiveness ratio.     

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan

IntroductionDespite progress made in child survival in the past 20 years, 5.9 million children under five years died in 2015, with 9% of these deaths due to diarrhea. Rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of diarrhea deaths. In 2013, rotavirus was estimated to cause 215,000 deaths among children under five years, including 89,000 in Asia. As of April 2017, 92 countries worldwide have introduced rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization program. Afghanistan has applied for Gavi support to introduce rotavirus vaccination nationally. This study estimates the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus immunization program in Afghanistan.MethodsThis study examined the use of Rotarix® (RV1) administered using a two-dose schedule at 6 and 10 weeks of age. We used the ProVac Initiative’s UNIVAC model (version 1.2.09) to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine program compared with no vaccine over ten birth cohorts from 2017 to 2026 with a 3% annual discount rate. All monetary units are adjusted to 2017 US$.ResultsRotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan has the potential to avert more than one million cases; 660,000 outpatient visits; approximately 50,000 hospital admissions; 650,000 DALYs; and 12,000 deaths, over 10 years. Not accounting for any Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination can avert DALYs at US$82/DALY from the government perspective and US$80/DALY from the societal perspective. With Gavi support, DALYs can be averted at US$29/DALY and US$31/DALY from the societal and government perspective, respectively. The average yearly cost of a rotavirus vaccination program would represent 2.8% of the total immunization budget expected in 2017 and 0.1% of total health expenditure.ConclusionThe introduction of rotavirus vaccination would be highly cost-effective in Afghanistan, and even more so with a Gavi subsidy.     

Dynamic model of rotavirus transmission and the impact of rotavirus vaccination in Kyrgyzstan

New rotavirus vaccines show promise to reduce the burden of severe diarrhea among children in developing countries. We present an age-specific dynamic rotavirus model to assess the effect of rotavirus vaccination in Kyrgyzstan, a country in Central Asia that is eligible for funds from the GAVI Alliance. A routine rotavirus vaccination program at 95% coverage and 54% effectiveness against severe infection is estimated to lead to a 56% reduction in rotavirus-associated deaths and a 50% reduction in hospital admissions, while outpatient visits and homecare episodes would decrease by 52% compared to baseline levels after 5 years of intervention. A 10% reduction in vaccine efficacy due to incomplete 3-dose regimen is estimated to increase the numbers of severe cases by 6-8%. Herd immunity was found to account for 1% or less of averted cases of severe gastroenteritis, while an extra 7-8% of all rotavirus infections would be avoided due to reduced transmission. Conclusion: Rotavirus vaccines would reduce the burden of rotavirus disease substantially, but the results are sensitive to delay in age-appropriate vaccination.     

Predicting the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination in 112 countries from 2006 to 2034: A transmission modeling analysis

Rotavirus vaccination has been shown to reduce rotavirus burden in many countries, but the long-term magnitude of vaccine impacts is unclear, particularly in low-income countries. We use a transmission model to estimate the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2006 to 2034 for 112 low- and middle-income countries. We also explore the predicted effectiveness of a one- vs two- dose series and the relative contribution of direct vs indirect effects to overall impacts. To validate the model, we compare predicted percent reductions in severe rotavirus cases with the percent reduction in rotavirus positivity among gastroenteritis hospital admissions for 10 countries with pre- and post-vaccine introduction data. We estimate that vaccination would reduce deaths from rotavirus by 49.1 % (95 % UI: 46.6–54.3 %) by 2034 under realistic coverage scenarios, compared to a scenario without vaccination. Most of this benefit is due to direct benefit to vaccinated individuals (explaining 69–97 % of the overall impact), but indirect protection also appears to enhance impacts. We find that a one-dose schedule would only be about 57 % as effective as a two-dose schedule 12 years after vaccine introduction. Our model closely reproduced observed reductions in rotavirus positivity in the first few years after vaccine introduction in select countries. Rotavirus vaccination is likely to have a substantial impact on rotavirus gastroenteritis and its mortality burden. To sustain this benefit, the complete series of doses is needed.     

Modeling of rotavirus transmission dynamics and impact of vaccination in Ghana

BackgroundRotavirus incidence remains relatively high in low-income countries (LICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs) after vaccine introduction. Ghana introduced monovalent rotavirus vaccine in April 2012 and despite the high coverage, vaccine performance has been modest compared to developed countries. The predictors of low vaccine effectiveness in LICs are poorly understood, and the drivers of subnational heterogeneity in rotavirus vaccine impact are unknown.MethodsWe used mathematical models to investigate variations in rotavirus incidence in children <5 years old in Ghana. We fit models to surveillance and case-control data from three different hospitals: Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi, and War Memorial Hospital in Navrongo. The models were fitted to both pre- and post-vaccine data to estimate parameters describing the transmission rate, waning of maternal immunity, and vaccine response rate.ResultsThe seasonal pattern and age distribution of rotavirus cases varied among the three study sites in Ghana. Our model was able to capture the spatio-temporal variations in rotavirus incidence across the three sites and showed good agreement with the age distribution of observed cases. The rotavirus transmission rate was highest in Accra and lowest in Navrongo, while the estimated duration of maternal immunity was longer (~5 months) in Accra and Kumasi and shorter (~3 months) in Navrongo. The proportion of infants who responded to the vaccine was estimated to be high in Accra and Kumasi and low in Navrongo.ConclusionsRotavirus vaccine impact varies within Ghana. A low vaccine response rate was estimated for Navrongo, where rotavirus is highly seasonal and incidence limited to a few months of the year. Our findings highlight the need to further explore the relationship between rotavirus seasonality, maternal immunity, and vaccine response rate to determine how they influence vaccine effectiveness and to develop strategies to improve vaccine impact.     

Timeliness of rotavirus vaccination at sentinel sites in four early-adopter African countries

BackgroundThe majority of countries with the highest rotavirus-associated death rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended routine vaccination against rotavirus worldwide, with unique age recommendations to administer the first dose before 15 weeks of age and last dose by 32 weeks of age. These age restrictions were relaxed in January 2013, but they may still lead to lower rotavirus vaccine coverage.MethodsChildren age-eligible to have received rotavirus vaccine that were enrolled in Ghana, Zimbabwe, Rwanda or Burkina Faso′s active rotavirus surveillance platforms from 2013 to 2017 and had a stool specimen that tested rotavirus-negative were included in the analysis. Proportion vaccinated and timeliness of rotavirus vaccine versus DTPw-HepB-Hib (pentavalent) first dose and last dose were compared at weeks 15 and 32, respectively, using Chi-square analyses. Odds ratios were calculated using logistic regression.ResultsAmong children who received rotavirus vaccine dose 1, 96–99% received this dose by 15 weeks of age and among children who received the last dose, 98–99% received it by 32 weeks of age. In all four countries, there was no significant difference in the proportion of children who received first dose rotavirus versus pentavalent vaccine by week 15, or last dose rotavirus versus concordant pentavalent vaccine by week 32. Delayed administration of first dose pentavalent vaccine was significantly associated with missing first dose of rotavirus vaccine in 3 of the 4 countries studied, although delays in administration were rare (1–4%).ConclusionsRotavirus vaccination was timely among sentinel sites in these four early rotavirus vaccine-introducing countries in Africa. Late presentation for vaccination may have resulted in some children with access to care missing first dose of rotavirus vaccine; however, vaccination delays were infrequent and therefore the potential impact of the age restrictions on overall proportion vaccinated was minimal.     

Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on the burden of rotavirus diarrhea and the impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination in Pakistan

Globally, rotavirus is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and related mortality. Although rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in many countries worldwide, there are numerous low- to middle-income countries that have not yet introduced. Pakistan is one of the countries with the highest number of rotavirus deaths in children under five years. Although rotavirus infection is almost universal among children, mortality is often a result of poor nutrition and lack of access to health care and other aspects of poverty. We assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing childhood rotavirus vaccination in Pakistan. We use household data from the 2012–2013 Demographic Health survey in Pakistan to estimate heterogeneity in rotavirus mortality risk, vaccination benefits, and cost-effectiveness across geographic and economic groups. We estimate two-dose rotavirus vaccination coverage that would be distributed through a routine vaccination program. In addition, we estimate rotavirus mortality (burden), and other measures of vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact by subpopulations of children aggregated by region and economic status. Results indicate that the highest estimated regional rotavirus burden is in Sindh (3.3 rotavirus deaths/1000 births) and Balochistan (3.1 rotavirus deaths/1000 births), which also have the lowest estimated vaccination coverage, particularly for children living in the poorest households. In Pakistan, introduction could prevent 3061 deaths per year with current routine immunization patterns at an estimated $279/DALY averted. Increases in coverage to match the region with highest coverage (Islamabad) could prevent an additional 1648 deaths per year. Vaccination of children in the highest risk regions could result in a fourfold mortality reduction as compared to low risk children, and children in the poorest households have a three to four times greater mortality reduction benefit than the richest. Based on the analysis presented here, the benefits and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination can be maximized by reaching economically and geographically vulnerable children.     

The cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination: Comparative analyses for five European countries and transferability in Europe

Cost-effectiveness analyses are usually not directly comparable between countries because of differences in analytical and modelling assumptions. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in five European Union countries (Belgium, England and Wales, Finland, France and the Netherlands) using a single model, burden of disease estimates supplied by national public health agencies and a subset of common assumptions. Under base case assumptions (vaccination with Rotarix^®, 3% discount rate, health care provider perspective, no herd immunity and quality of life of one caregiver affected by a rotavirus episode) and a cost-effectiveness threshold of €30,000, vaccination is likely to be cost effective in Finland only. However, single changes to assumptions may make it cost effective in Belgium and the Netherlands. The estimated threshold price per dose for Rotarix^® (excluding administration costs) to be cost effective was €41 in Belgium, €28 in England and Wales, €51 in Finland, €36 in France and €46 in the Netherlands.     

Estimating and comparing the clinical and economic impact of paediatric rotavirus vaccination in Turkey using a simple versus an advanced model

Background

The burden of rotavirus disease is high in Turkey, reflecting the large birth cohort (>1.2 million) and the risk of disease. Modelling can help to assess the potential economic impact of vaccination. We compared the output of an advanced model with a simple model requiring fewer data inputs. If the results are similar, this could be helpful for countries that have few data available.

Methods

The advanced model was a previously published static Markov cohort model comparing costs and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) outcomes of vaccination versus no vaccination. In contrast, the simple model used only a decision tree. Both models included data on demography, epidemiology, vaccine efficacy, resource use, unit costs, and utility scores from national databases and published papers. Only the perspective of the health care payer was considered in the analysis. The simple model had 23 variables, compared with 103 in the advanced model to allow additional comparisons of different vaccine types, dose schemes and vaccine waning.

Results

With the same input data, both models showed that rotavirus vaccination in Turkey would improve health outcomes (fewer QALYs lost to rotavirus disease). The projected annual cost offsets were $29.9 million in the simple and $29.4 million in the advanced model. Sensitivity analysis indicated that in both models the main cost driver was disease incidence followed by cost for hospital care and medical visits. Vaccine efficacy had a smaller effect.

Conclusion

Both models reached similar conclusions. Both projected that rotavirus vaccination in Turkey would improve health outcomes and may result in savings in direct healthcare costs to offset the cost of vaccination. The analysis indicated that the simple model can produce meaningful economic results in conditions where few data are available.     

Projected state-specific increases in self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis and arthritis-attributable activity limitations--United States, 2005-2030

Arthritis and other rheumatic conditions (e.g., gout, lupus, and fibromyalgia) affect approximately 46 million adults in the United States, resulting in substantial disability and costs of $128 billion annually. Because U.S. adults are living longer and the number of persons in older age groups is growing, the number of U.S. adults living with chronic conditions such as arthritis likely will increase. The number of U.S. adults with doctor-diagnosed arthritis has been projected to reach nearly 67 million adults by the year 2030, including 25 million adults who are expected to have arthritis-attributable activity limitations. This report supplements those estimates by projecting the number of adults aged >/=18 years in each state who will have doctor-diagnosed arthritis and arthritis-attributable activity limitations in 2030. The results indicate that, among 48 states, the median projected increase in doctor-diagnosed arthritis from 2005 to 2030 will be 16%; a total of 14 states are projected to have increases of 30% to 87%. Greater use of existing evidence-based interventions and development of new interventions aimed at decreasing pain, improving function, and delaying disability associated with arthritis are needed to reduce the impact of these projected increases, particularly in those states that will be most heavily affected.     

Potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination for rotavirus gastroenteritis in eight Latin American and Caribbean countries.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the costs, benefits and cost-effectiveness of vaccination for rotavirus gastroenteritis in eight Latin American and Caribbean countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, and Venezuela. METHODS: An economic model was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination from the health care system perspective, using national administrative and published epidemiological evidence, country-specific cost estimates, and vaccine efficacy data. The model was applied to the first five years of life for the 2003 birth cohort in each country. The main health outcome was the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and the main summary measure was the incremental cost per DALY averted. A 3% discount rate was used for all predicted costs and benefits. Sensitivity analyses evaluated the impact of uncertainty regarding key variables on cost-effectiveness estimates. RESULTS: According to the estimates obtained with the economic model, vaccination would prevent more than 65% of the medical visits, deaths, and treatment costs associated with rotavirus gastroenteritis in the eight countries analyzed here. At a cost of US$ 24 per course (for a two-dose vaccine), the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ranged from 269 US dollars/DALY in Honduras to 10,656 US dollars/DALY in Chile. Cost-effectiveness ratios were sensitive to assumptions about vaccine price, mortality, and vaccine efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination would effectively reduce the disease burden and health care costs of rotavirus gastroenteritis in the Latin American and Caribbean countries analyzed here. From the health care system perspective, universal vaccination of infants is predicted to be cost-effective, based on current standards.