Predictors of development and progression of microvascular complications in a cohort of Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

AIMS: Microvascular complications are associated with increased mortality in diabetes. The objective of this study was to investigate the predictors of microvascular complication development and progression in a prospective study of Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients. METHODS: A prospective follow-up study was carried out with 471 type 2 diabetic outpatients. Primary end points were the development or progression of retinopathy, peripheral neuropathy, and clinical nephropathy. Predictors were assessed for each individual microvascular complication and also as a composite outcome by Kaplan-Meier estimation of survival curves and by uni- and multivariate Cox analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 196 patients (41.6%) developed or had a progression in microvascular disease. Retinopathy occurred in 22.5%, nephropathy in 19.1%, and neuropathy in 15.5% of the patients. In Cox multivariate analysis, increased echocardiographic left ventricular mass (LVM) and longer diabetes duration were selected as predictors for all end points. Higher mean fasting glycemia was a predictor for retinopathy and neuropathy, lower serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol for neuropathy, and higher total cholesterol for nephropathy. Increased LVM [hazard ratio (HR): 1.39, 95% CI: 1.23-1.56], higher fasting glycemia (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04-1.36), and longer diabetes duration (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.11-1.47) were the predictors of the composite end point. CONCLUSIONS: Development and progression of microvascular complications in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients are associated with worse hypertension and metabolic control. Additional studies are necessary to show if modification of these risk factors can reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality related to microvascular disease in type 2 diabetes.     

Long-term prediction of mortality in elderly persons by dobutamine stress echocardiography

BACKGROUND: Dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) was shown to provide incremental prognostic information. However, its role in the prediction of mortality in elderly persons is not well defined. We assessed the value of DSE in the prediction of mortality and hard cardiac events during long-term follow-up in patients older than 65 years. METHODS: We studied 1434 patients >65 years old (mean age 72 +/- 3 years) who underwent DSE for evaluation of coronary artery disease. Ischemia was defined as new or worsening wall motion abnormalities. Follow-up events were total mortality and hard cardiac events (cardiac mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of follow-up events. RESULTS: Ischemia was detected in 675 patients (47%). Five hundred six patients (35%) had a normal study, and 253 (18%) had fixed wall motion abnormalities. During a mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 532 (37%) deaths occurred, of which 249 (17%) were due to cardiac causes. A nonfatal myocardial infarction occurred in 45 patients (3%). Independent predictors of all-cause mortality in a multivariate analysis model were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.08), male sex (HR 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8), hypertension (HR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4), smoking (HR 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), diabetes (HR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8), rest wall motion abnormalities (HR 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09), and ischemia (HR 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6). Independent predictors of hard cardiac events were age (HR 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09), male sex (HR 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), smoking (HR 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), diabetes (HR 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.2), rest wall motion abnormalities (HR 1.13; 95% CI, 1.12-1.16), and ischemia (HR 2.1; 95% CI, 1.5-2.8). CONCLUSION: DSE provides independent prognostic information to predict all-cause mortality and hard cardiac events in elderly patients.     

Prognostic value of QT interval parameters in type 2 diabetes mellitus: results of a long-term follow-up prospective study

The prognostic importance of electrocardiographic ventricular repolarization QT parameters (maximum rate-corrected QT interval-QTcmax, QT interval dispersion-QTd, and QTcd), in relation to other risk markers, on cardiovascular and cardiac mortality, and on total fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events, was evaluated prospectively in 471 type 2 diabetic outpatients. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range: 2-84), 121 (25.7%), patients died, 44 (36.3% of them) from cardiovascular causes and 106 (22.5%) fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events were observed. In Cox proportional hazards multivariate analysis, both QTd and QTcmax were independent predictors of cardiovascular and cardiac mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.34, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.12-1.59, for each 10-ms increments in QTd and HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.03-1.21 for 10-ms increments in QTcmax, for cardiovascular mortality). They were also predictors of total fatal or nonfatal cardiac and cardiovascular events (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.05-1.33 for QTd and HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.15 for QTcmax). Additional independent prognostic markers for total cardiovascular events were the presence of previous cardiac disease, cerebral or peripheral vascular disease, age, male gender, known diabetes duration, heart rate, and serum triglycerides. Excluding patients with prior cardiac disease did not change significantly the prognostic performance of QTd but decreased that of QTcmax. In conclusion, QT interval parameters give additional prognostic information in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, beyond that obtained from traditional risk factors. QT interval dispersion seems a better prognostic marker than maximum QT interval, particularly in patients without previous cardiac diseases.     

Mild renal insufficiency as a cardiovascular risk factor in non-proteinuric type II diabetes

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate cardiovascular risk according to baseline renal function in a group of non-proteinuric type II diabetic patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective study with a follow-up of 423 non-proteinuric type II diabetic patients with creatinine <150 micromol/l for an average of 4.7 years (S.D. 1.55). Creatinine clearance (CC) was estimated using the Cockcroft-Gault formula and expressed in millilitre per minute. The hazard ratio (HR) associated with each millilitre per minute decrease in baseline CC on fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events and total mortality was evaluated using the Cox regression model. RESULTS: Baseline creatinine was 89 micromol/l (S.D. 15.9) and CC was 69.5 ml/min (S.D. 20). There were 63 cardiovascular events (15 unstable angina, 10 non-fatal myocardial infarctions, 25 non-fatal strokes, two amputations, nine fatal myocardial infarctions and two fatal strokes) and 39 total deaths (11 for cardiovascular causes). The cardiovascular event rate was 31.7/1000 patient-years and the total mortality rate was 19.6/1000 patient-years. The independent predictors of cardiovascular events were: CC (HR=1.035; confidence interval (CI) 95% 1.02-1.05; P<0.0001), total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio (HR=1.25; CI 95% 1.1-1.4; P=0.0008), baseline coronary heart disease (HR=2.05; CI 95% 1.07-3.9; P=0.04) and baseline microalbuminuria (HR=2.3; CI 95% 1.3-3.8; P=0.003). The independent total mortality predictors were: CC (HR=1.04; CI 95% 1.02-1.08; P<0.0001), male (HR=2.1; CI 95% 1.1-4; P=0.027) and baseline microalbuminuria (HR=2.1; CI 95% 1.1-4;P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Mild renal insufficiency increases cardiovascular risk in non-proteinuric patients with type II diabetes.     

Severe infections in systemic lupus erythematosus: disease pattern and predictors of infection-related mortality

Infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). To describe the pattern of serious infections in patients with SLE and to identify the predictors of infection-related mortality among SLE patients with serious infections, we prospectively studied all SLE patients who were hospitalized with infections in Sarawak General Hospital during 2011–2015. Demographic data, clinical features, and outcomes were collected. Cox regression analysis was carried out to determine the independent predictors of infection-related mortality. There were a total of 125 patients with 187 episodes of serious infections. Our patients were of multiethnic origins with female predominance (89.6%). Their mean age was 33.4?±?14.2 years. The patients had a mean disease duration of 66.8?±?74.0 months. The most common site of infection was pulmonary (37.9%), followed by septicemia (22.5%). Gram-negative organisms (38.2%) were the predominant isolates within the cohort. There were 21 deaths (11.2%) during the study period. Independent predictors of infection-related mortality among our cohort of SLE patients were flare of SLE (HR 3.98, CI 1.30–12.21) and the presence of bacteremia (HR 2.54, CI 0.98–6.59). Hydroxychloroquine was protective of mortality from serious infections (HR 9.26, CI 3.40–25.64). Pneumonia and Gram-negative organisms were the predominant pattern of infection in our SLE cohort. The presence of flare of SLE and bacteremia were independent prognostic predictors of infection-related mortality, whereas hydroxychloroquine was protective of infection-related mortality among SLE patients with serious infections.     

The influence of age at symptom onset and length of followup on mortality in patients with recent-onset inflammatory polyarthritis

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of age at symptom onset and length of followup on mortality in patients with recent-onset inflammatory polyarthritis (IP), and to examine predictors of mortality in relation to disease duration. METHODS: From 1990 to 1994, patients with recent-onset IP were registered with the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) and followed up prospectively. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and for those who were younger than age 55 years at disease onset and for the first 5 and 10 years of followup. Cox proportional hazards models were developed to assess predictors of early and later mortality. RESULTS: Of 1,098 patients, 224 (20%) had died by the end of 2004. All-cause and CVD mortality were increased in rheumatoid factor (RF)-positive patients and in this subgroup, CVD mortality was increased at both early and later followup (SMR 5-year followup 1.93 [95% confidence interval 1.08-3.19]; SMR 10-year followup 2.00 [95% confidence interval 1.37-2.80]). CVD mortality was highest in seropositive patients<55 years of age at disease onset (SMR 5.58 [95% confidence interval 2.24-11.50]). In multivariate models, age at onset, male sex, RF positivity, Health Assessment Questionnaire score>or=1.5, and nodules were predictors of early and later mortality. CONCLUSION: Patients with IP had higher rates of CVD mortality throughout the followup period studied, and this was highest in seropositive patients who were <55 years of age at symptom onset. This subgroup deserves particular attention in terms of disease and risk factor modification. Nodules were independent predictors of CVD mortality, suggesting that extraarticular/vascular inflammation identifies patients at particularly high CVD risk.     

Dobutamine stress echocardiography and the effect of revascularization on outcome in diabetic and non-diabetic patients with chronic ischaemic left ventricular dysfunction

AIM: To evaluate the interaction between prognostic effect of revascularization and viability in diabetic and non-diabetic patients with ischaemic left ventricular dysfunction. METHODS: 612 patients with angiographically proven coronary artery disease and left ventricular ejection fraction <35% underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography to assess viability (peak-rest wall motion score index >0.4). 262 patients (75 diabetics, 187 non-diabetics) underwent revascularization and 350 (88 diabetics, 262 non-diabetics) were on medical therapy. RESULTS: During follow-up 215 patients died. Independent predictors of mortality in revascularized patients were resting left ventricular ejection fraction (HR=0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p<0.0001), Delta WMSI>40 (HR=0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.85, p=0.01), and age (HR=1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06, p=0.04). In medically treated patients, independent predictors of mortality were diabetes mellitus (HR=1.64, 95% CI 1.13-2.38, p=0.009), number of diseased vessels (HR=1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.56, p=0.02), and age (HR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.04, p=0.03). In revascularized patients, 4-year mortality was 15% in those with viability and 26% in those without viability (p=0.04), there was no difference between diabetics and non-diabetics (24% vs 22%; p=0.24). CONCLUSIONS: Viability at dobutamine stress echocardiography independently predicts improved outcome following revascularization in non-diabetics as well as diabetic patients with ischaemic left ventricular dysfunction.     

Lipid but not glycaemic parameters predict total mortality from Type 2 diabetes mellitus in Canterbury,New Zealand

A cohort of 447 subjects with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (208 male, 239 female; age range 30–82, median 62 years; and of predominantly European origin) was characterized in a clinic survey in 1989. Individual status (dead or alive) at 1 June 1995 was ascertained. Mortality rates were compared with the general New Zealand population by calculating standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and the hazard ratio (HR) of prognostic factors evaluated with Cox’s proportional hazards model. At 6 years, 289 subjects were confirmed as alive and 133 as dead; only 25 were untraceable. Six-year survival for the cohort was 70 % (95 % CI 66–74). SMR was 2.53 (95 % CI 1.99–2.68) for the female cohort and 2.03 (95 % CI 1.60–2.59) for the male cohort. Factors assessed at baseline (1989) that were independently prognostic of total mortality included age, male sex, pre-existing coronary artery disease (CAD) (HR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.5–3.3) and plasma cholesterol (HR for 1.4 mmol l⁻¹ change: 1.49, 95 % CI 1.2–1.9). HDL-cholesterol was protective in women (HR for 0.4 mmol l⁻¹ change: 0.72, 95 % CI 0.51–1.00) but not men. Glycated haemoglobin was not a significant predictor of total mortality. Predictors of CAD mortality (in those subjects free of CAD in 1989) included plasma cholesterol (HR for 1.4 mmol l⁻¹ change: 1.86 95 % CI 1.20–2.89), glycated haemoglobin (HR for 1.8 % change: 1.9 95 % CI 1.04–3.47), male sex, peripheral vascular disease, and smoking. There is therefore increased mortality in Type 2 diabetic subjects in Canterbury, New Zealand. HDL-cholesterol is protective against total mortality in females. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delayed mortality in a cohort of persons hospitalized with West Nile virus disease in Colorado in 2003

Most mortality associated with West Nile virus (WNV) disease occurs during the acute or early convalescent phases of illness. However, some reports suggest mortality may be elevated for months or longer after acute illness. The objective of this study was to assess the survival of a cohort of patients hospitalized with WNV disease in Colorado in 2003 up to 4 years after illness onset. We calculated age-adjusted standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) to evaluate excess mortality, evaluated reported causes of death in those who died, and analyzed potential covariates of delayed mortality. By 1 year after illness onset, 4% of the 201 patients had died (SMR, 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-5.2), and 12% had died by 4 years after onset (SMR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.0). Among those who had died, the most common immediate and contributory causes of death included pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease; cancer, hepatic disease, and renal disease were mentioned less frequently. In multivariate analysis, age (hazard ratio [HR], 2.0 per 10-year increase; 95% CI, 1.4-2.7), autoimmune disease (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.1-7.9), ever-use of tobacco (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.3-7.0), encephalitis during acute WNV illness (HR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.1-6.4), and endotracheal intubation during acute illness (HR 4.8; 95% CI, 1.9-12.1) were found to be independently associated with mortality. Our finding of an approximate twofold increase in mortality for up to 3 years after acute illness reinforces the need for prevention measures against WNV infection among at-risk groups to reduce acute as well as longer-term adverse outcomes.     

Usefulness of QT-interval parameters for cardiovascular risk stratification in type 2 diabetic patients with arterial hypertension

QT-interval parameters are potential indicators of increased cardiovascular risk. We evaluated prospectively their prognostic value, in relation to other risk markers, for cardiovascular fatal and nonfatal events in a cohort of 271 hypertensive type 2 diabetic outpatients. QT intervals were measured from 12-lead standard ECGs obtained on admission and maximum rate-corrected QT-interval duration and QT-interval dispersion (QTd) calculated. Clinical and laboratory data and 2-D echocardiograms (available in 126 patients) were recorded. Survival analyses included Kaplan-Meier survival curves, uni and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards models. After a median follow-up of 55 months (range 2-84), 68 total fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events and 34 cardiovascular deaths (24 of them from cardiac causes) were observed. In multivariate Cox analysis, QTd was an independent predictor for total cardiovascular events (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.34, for each 10 ms increments) and for cardiac deaths (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.60). Other independent risk indicators for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality were echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (Echo-LVH), serum triglycerides, presence of pre-existing cardiac and peripheral arterial disease, age, diabetes duration, heart rate and the presence of frequent ventricular premature contractions on ECG. The combination of QTd and Echo-LVH improved cardiovascular risk stratification compared with either alone, the presence of both prolonged QTd (>65 ms) and Echo-LVH was associated with a 3.2-fold (95% CI: 1.7-6.1) increased risk of a first cardiovascular event and a 5.9-fold (95% CI: 2.1-16.4) increased risk of cardiovascular death. Thus, QT provided additive prognostic information for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality beyond that obtained from conventional risk markers, including Echo-LVH, in type 2 diabetic patients with arterial hypertension.     

Increased cerebrovascular mortality in patients with hypopituitarism

OBJECTIVE  An increased prevalence of atherosclerosis has been shown among patients with hypopituitarism. The aim of the present study was to assess whether patients with hypopituitarism experience increased cardiovascular, in particular cerebrovascular, mortality.
DESIGN AND PATIENTS  Retrospective cohort study of mortality, 1952–1992, in 344 patients, of whom 130 were female, receiving conventional hormone replacement for hypopituitarism following neurosurgery for pituitary tumours. The general population in the catchment area of southern Sweden from which the patients were recruited constituted the reference population. Expected mortality was obtained from cause, sex, calendar year, and 5-year age-specific death rates for the area.
RESULTS  Increased mortality from cerebrovascular disease (standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 3.39; 95% CI 2.27–4.99) was the main contributor to the increased overall cardiovascular mortality (SMR 1.75; 95% CI 1.40–2.19). The increase in mortality from cardiac diseases was much smaller (SMR 1.41; 95% CI 1.04–1.88). The risk for cerebrovascular death was higher in women (SMR 4.91) than in men (SMR 2.64). The relative risk for cerebrovascular death was independent of the time interval since diagnosis of pituitary insufficiency, but was greater in subjects diagnosed at an earlier age (<55 years). No increased mortality in malignant tumours was observed (SMR 0.95; 95% CI 0.60–1.48).
CONCLUSION  The increased cerebrovascular mortality may be due to GH deficiency, or to long-term lack or inadequacy of substitution for other pituitary hormones. The observations that an early onset of pituitary insufficiency and female sex are predictors for a high risk for cerebrovascular mortality merit particular attention when treating this group of patients.     

Elderly patients undergoing major vascular surgery: risk factors and medication associated with risk reduction

This study assesses risk factors in elderly vascular surgery patients and to evaluate whether perioperative cardiac medication can reduce postoperative mortality rate. In a cohort study, 1693 consecutive patients > or =65 years undergoing major non-cardiac vascular surgery were preoperatively screened for cardiac risk factors and medication. During follow-up (median: 8.2 years), mortality was noted. Hospital mortality occurred in 8.1% and long-term mortality in 28.5%. In multivariate analysis, age, coronary artery disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, renal failure and diabetes were significantly associated with increased hospital and long-term mortality. Perioperative aspirin (OR: 0.53, 95% confidence interval: 0.34-0.83), beta-blockers (OR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.19-0.54) and statins (OR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.18-0.68) were significantly associated with reduced hospital mortality. In addition, aspirin (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81), angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE)-inhibitors (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.59-0.92), beta-blockers (HR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.76) and statins (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.49-0.87) were significantly associated with reduced long-term mortality. Heterogeneity tests revealed a gradient decrease of mortality risk in patients from low to high age using statins (p=0.03). In conclusion, age is an independent predictor of hospital and long-term mortality in elderly patients undergoing major vascular surgery. Aspirin, ACE-inhibitors, beta-blockers and statins reduce long-term mortality risk. Especially the very elderly may benefit from statin therapy.     

Predictors of long-term mortality after hospitalization for primary unstable angina pectoris and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Data are sparse regarding long-term outcomes after hospitalization for unstable angina pectoris (UAP) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), as defined by contemporary criteria. We extended follow-up in a preexisting database of unselected patients with primary UAP and NSTEMI admitted by way of the emergency department from 1991 to 1992. Stepwise Cox models were used to identify multivariate predictors of long-term mortality. There were 275 patients (mean age 66 +/- 12 years, 33% women) who survived to hospital discharge; 134 patients (49%) died during follow-up (median 9.4 years). Significant multivariate predictors of long-term mortality were: age (hazard ratio [HR] per decade 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4 to 1.9); prior MI (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.5); diabetes (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.4); congestive heart failure (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.4); elevated creatinine (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.7 to 3.8); elevated leukocyte count (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.5); systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg at presentation (HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.6); lack of coronary revascularization during the index hospitalization (HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.0); and lack of discharge beta-blocker therapy (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.2). A clinical prediction rule was generated by assigning weighted point scores for the presence of each significant covariate. Long-term mortality increased markedly with each quintile of score; for quintiles 1 to 5, mortality rates were 8.5%, 29.4%, 47.6%, 75.0%, and 91.5%, respectively (p value for trend <0.001). These data are among the first assessments of long-term mortality after hospitalization for primary UAP and NSTEMI, as defined by contemporary guideline criteria. Easily obtained clinical covariates provide excellent prediction of long-term mortality up to 10 years after hospitalization for primary UAP and NSTEMI.     

Mortality in Behçet's disease

Objective

To report the long‐term mortality in patients with Behçet's disease (BD).

Methods

A cohort of 817 patients fulfilling the international criteria for BD from a single center in France were analyzed for causes of death, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and the factors associated with mortality.

Results

Among the 817 patients with BD, 41 (5%) died after a median followup of 7.7 years, of whom 95.1% were male. The mean ± SD age at death was 34.8 ± 11.9 years. Main causes of death included major vessel disease (mainly, arterial aneurysm and Budd‐Chiari syndrome) (43.9%), cancer and malignant hemopathy (14.6%), central nervous system involvement (12.2%), and sepsis (12.2%). The mortality rate at 1 year and 5 years was 1.2% and 3.3%, respectively. There was an increased mortality among patients ages 15–24 years (SMR 2.99, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.54–5.39) and those ages 25–34 years (SMR 2.90, 95% CI 1.80–4.49) as compared with age‐and sex‐matched healthy controls. The mortality decreased in patients older than age 35 years (SMR 1.23, 95% CI 0.75–1.92). In multivariate analyses, male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 4.94, 95% CI 1.53–16.43), arterial involvement (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.07–5.90), and a high number of BD flares (HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.09–5.14) were independently associated with the risk of mortality.

Conclusion

The overall mortality in our BD cohort was 5% after a median followup of 7.7 years. Male sex, arterial involvement, and the number of flares were associated with mortality in BD.

     

Predictors of hyperglycaemic crises and their associated mortality in Jamaica

The objective of the study was to determine the clinical characteristics and mortality of patients with hyperglycaemic hyperosmolar syndrome (HHS) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at a Jamaican tertiary care hospital. In a retrospective study of 1560 admissions for diabetes during the period 1998-2002, 980 dockets were reviewed and 164 individuals met the ADA diagnostic criteria for DKA or HHS. Patients with HHS were older than DKA patients (64.5 years [95% CI: 60.7-68.4] versus 35.9 years [95% CI: 30.2-41.6]), but were not more likely to be non-compliant with medications, infected, or male. Overall, 24% had a mixed DKA/HHS syndrome. Most DKA patients had type 2 diabetes (62%). Only 2% of HHS and 6% of DKA/HHS patients had type 1 diabetes. Syndrome specific mortality was: DKA 6.7%, HHS 20.3%, and DKA/HHS 25% (p for trend=0.013). Mortality increased significantly with age, especially in patients > or =50 years. Significant univariate predictors of mortality were altered mental status on admission, co-existing medical disease, increasing age, older age at onset of diabetes, acute stressors, and DKA/HHS. In multivariate models, only altered mental status was significant (OR=3.59; 95% CI: 1.24-10.41). Hence, hyperglycaemic crises in a Jamaican tertiary care hospital are associated with significant mortality especially in patients who are older or with altered mental status.     

Long-term survival in elderly patients hospitalized for heart failure: 14-year follow-up from a prospective randomized trial

BACKGROUND: The growing heart failure epidemic imposes a substantial burden on the US health care system. The ability to accurately assess prognosis would allow clinicians to triage patients to appropriate therapy and to plan the intensity of care following hospital discharge. METHODS: A cohort of 282 elderly (mean +/- SD age, 79.2 +/- 6.1 years) patients with heart failure were followed for up to 14 years after enrollment in a prospective randomized multidisciplinary disease management trial conducted from 1990 through 1994. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed to assess the probability of survival during the follow-up period. A Cox proportional hazards model was developed to identify independent predictors of long-term survival. C statistics were calculated to assess the utility of the model for predicting mortality at 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years. RESULTS: During the 14-year follow-up period, 269 patients (95%) died and the median survival was 894 days. Cox analysis identified 7 variables that were independent predictors of shorter survival time: older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.14 per 5 years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.26), serum sodium level less than 135 mEq/L (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.19-2.32), coronary artery disease (HR 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16-1.95), dementia (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.13-3.61), peripheral vascular disease (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.20-2.52), systolic blood pressure (HR, 0.95 per 10 mm Hg; 95% CI, 0.92-0.98), and serum urea nitrogen level (HR, 1.20 per 10 mg/dL [3.57 mmol/L]; 95% CI, 1.12-1.29). C statistics for the model were 0.84, 0.79, and 0.75 at 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years, respectively. A risk score for mortality was developed using the 7 independent predictor variables. One-year mortality rates among patients with 0 to 1 (n = 89), 2 to 3 (n = 153), and 4 or more (n = 37) risk factors were 9.0%, 22.2%, and 73.0%, respectively (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among elderly patients hospitalized with heart failure, median survival is about 2.5 years. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in survival, with 25% of patients dying within 1 year and 25% surviving for more than 5 years. A simple 7-item risk score, based on data readily available at the time of admission, provides a reliable estimate of prognosis.     

Ulcerative colitis: no rise in mortality in a European-wide population based cohort 10 years after diagnosis

BACKGROUND: Population based studies have revealed varying mortality for patients with ulcerative colitis but most have described patients from limited geographical areas who were diagnosed before 1990. AIMS: To assess overall mortality in a European cohort of patients with ulcerative colitis, 10 years after diagnosis, and to investigate national ulcerative colitis related mortality across Europe. METHODS: Mortality 10 years after diagnosis was recorded in a prospective European-wide population based cohort of patients with ulcerative colitis diagnosed in 1991-1993 from nine centres in seven European countries. Expected mortality was calculated from the sex, age and country specific mortality in the WHO Mortality Database for 1995-1998. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: At follow-up, 661 of 775 patients were alive with a median follow-up duration of 123 months (107-144). A total of 73 deaths (median follow-up time 61 months (1-133)) occurred compared with an expected 67. The overall mortality risk was no higher: SMR 1.09 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.37). Mortality by sex was SMR 0.92 (95% CI 0.65 to 1.26) for males and SMR 1.39 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.93) for females. There was a slightly higher risk in older age groups. For disease specific mortality, a higher SMR was found only for pulmonary disease. Mortality by European region was SMR 1.19 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.53) for the north and SMR 0.82 (95% CI 0.45-1.37) for the south. CONCLUSIONS: Higher mortality was not found in patients with ulcerative colitis 10 years after disease onset. However, a significant rise in SMR for pulmonary disease, and a trend towards an age related rise in SMR, was observed.     

Predictors of mortality in hospitalized diabetic patients: A 7-year prospective study

This study was conducted to investigate the mortality rate, causes of death, and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and to identify the significant predictive factors of mortality in diabetic patients at a medical center in Taiwan. Clinical data were obtained from 1792 diabetic inpatients discharged from the metabolism department of a medical center during the years 1996–2002. Underlying causes of death were determined from death certificates. Predictors of mortality were assessed by uni- and multivariate Cox survival analyses. Of 1792 patients studied, 410 (22.9%) patients died. The crude mortality rate was 93.2/1000 person-years, and the overall SMR was 2.98 (2.71–3.28). The percentages of causes of death ascribed to diabetes, cancer, cardiopulmonary disease, infection, stroke, digestive diseases, nephropathy, accidents, suicide, and disease of arteries, arterioles, and capillaries were 38.0, 13.2, 9.5, 7.8, 7.6, 6.8, 5.1, 2.0, 0.5, and 0.2%, respectively. The independent predictors of mortality were age greater than 65, duration of hypertension more than 5 years, 24 h proteinuria greater than 0.3 g, and estimated creatinine clearance less than 60 mL/min. Conclusion: The mortality of diabetic inpatients was about threefold that of the general population. The predictors of mortality included older age, longer duration of hypertension, increased 24 h proteinuria, and decreased creatinine clearance.     

Isolated systolic hypertension in a cohort of type 2 diabetic patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous studies of the adverse effects of isolated and borderline isolated systolic hypertension excluded or under-represented type 2 diabetic patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and role of isolated and borderline isolated systolic hypertension in a cohort of 3892 type 2 diabetic patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: The hypertensive patients were classified as treated (n= 1806; 46.4%), untreated diastolic hypertension (n=407; 10.4%), untreated isolated systolic hypertension (n=166; 4.3%) and untreated borderline isolated systolic hypertension (n=625; 16%). A Cox proportional hazard model including several confounders showed that the patients with untreated isolated systolic hypertension were at significantly higher risk of hospital admissions due to cerebrovascular diseases than the normotensive and untreated diastolic hypertensive patients (HR=2.05; 95% CI: 1.2-3.4 and HR=1.97; 95%CI: 1.1-3.5, respectively). In the same model, borderline isolated systolic hypertension significantly correlated with admissions for cerebrovascular diseases in comparison with normotensive patients (HR=1.73; 95% CI: 1.2-2.6). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report concerning the prevalence of isolated and borderline isolated systolic hypertension in a large cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. The results are in line with population-based estimates. Our data show that isolated systolic hypertension is an independent predictor of hospital admissions due to cerebrovascular diseases.     

Causes of death in patients with peptic ulcer perforation: a long-term follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Survival is lower in ulcer perforation patients than in the general population. This study assesses the causes of death in patients treated for peptic ulcer perforation. METHODS: Cause-specific mortality in a population-based cohort of 817 patients treated for ulcer perforation in western Norway during the period 1962-1990 was compared with cause-specific population death rates. Analyses were based on observed and expected mortality curves for major causes of death and on standardized mortality rates (SMRs). Cox regression models were used to analyse possible differences on the basis of sex, birth cohort, surgical procedure, and ulcer location. RESULTS: Ulcer perforation patients experienced increased mortality from neoplasms (SMR = 1.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.4-2.1), lung cancer (SMR = 3.6; 95% CI = 2.3-4.9), circulatory diseases (SMR = 1.3; 95% CI = 1.1-1.6), ischaemic heart disease (SMR = 1.3; 95% CI = 1.03-1.6), and respiratory diseases (SMR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.3-2.6). Postoperative deaths accounted for 38% of all excess deaths. Death from recurrent peptic ulcer was increased also in subjects who survived the 1st year after the perforation (SMR = 5.8; 95% CI = 1.2-10.4) but accounted for only a few deaths. The increase in mortality from lung cancer was higher in subjects born after 1910 than in patients of older generations. Excess mortality from lung cancer and from circulatory diseases was higher in male than in female patients. CONCLUSIONS: Increased mortality in ulcer perforation patients could mainly be attributed to smoking-related diseases. This is indirect evidence that smoking may be an important aetiologic factor for ulcer perforation.