Moderate alcohol intake is associated with survival in the elderly: the Dubbo Study

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between alcohol intake and survival in elderly people. DESIGN AND SETTING: A prospective study over 116 months of non-institutionalised subjects living in Dubbo, a rural town (population, 34,000) in New South Wales. PARTICIPANTS: 1235 men and 1570 women aged 60 years and over who were first examined in 1988-89. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-causes mortality; gross cost of alcohol per life-year gained. RESULTS: Death occurred in 450 men and 392 women. Intake of alcohol was generally moderate (i.e., less than 14 drinks/week). Any intake of alcohol was associated with reduced mortality in men up to 75 years and in women over 64 years. In a proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio for mortality in men taking any alcohol was 0.63 (95% CI, 0.47-0.84) and in women was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.60-0.94). Cardiovascular deaths in men were reduced from 20/100 (95% CI, 14-26) to 11/100 (95% CI, 9-13) and in women from 16/100 (95% CI, 13-19) to 8/100 (95% CI, 6-10). The reduction in mortality occurred in men and women taking only 1-7 drinks/week--hazard ratios, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.49-0.94) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.61-0.99), respectively, with a similar protective effect from intake of beer or other forms of alcohol. After almost 10 years' follow-up, men taking any alcohol lived on average 7.6 months longer, and women on average 2.7 months longer, compared with non-drinkers. The gross cost for alcohol per life-year gained if consuming 1-7 drinks/week was $5700 in men, and $19,000 in women. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate alcohol intake in the elderly appears to be associated with significantly longer survival in men 60-74 years and in all elderly women.     

Impact of smoking, diabetes and hypertension on survival time in the elderly: the Dubbo Study

OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of various risk factors on survival time in a cohort of elderly Australians. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A longitudinal, prospective cohort study conducted in Dubbo, NSW. Participants were men and women aged 60 years or over living in the community, first assessed in 1988-1989 and followed for 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality rates; risk factors; survival times. RESULTS: There were 668 deaths in 1233 men (54%) and 625 deaths in 1572 women (40%). Coronary heart disease was the major cause of death, rates being higher in men than women until age group 80+ years; stroke death rates were similar in both sexes; cancer and respiratory death rates were higher in men than women across all ages. In a proportional hazards model, the independent predictors of mortality were cigarette smoking, diabetes, very high blood pressure (BP), impaired peak expiratory flow (PEF), physical disability, and zero intake of alcohol. Over 15 years, the average reductions in survival time associated with various risk factors, in men and women respectively, were smoking, 22 and 15 months; diabetes, 18 and 18 months; very high BP, 16 and 9 months; impaired PEF, 14 and 17 months; physical disability, 16 and 12 months; zero alcohol intake, 9 and 5 months. Combinations of selected risk factors were associated with a multiplier effect. CONCLUSION: The reduction in survival time in elderly citizens demonstrated in the presence of smoking, diabetes and hypertension highlights a potential benefit to healthy ageing to be gained from prevention and intervention.     

A prospective study of folate intake and the risk of breast cancer

CONTEXT: Folate is involved in DNA synthesis and methylation and may reduce breast cancer risk, particularly among women with greater alcohol consumption. OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between folate intake and risk of breast cancer and whether higher folate intake may reduce excess risk among women who consume alcohol. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study performed in 1980, with 16 years of follow-up. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 88818 women who completed the dietary questionnaire section of the Nurses' Health Study in 1980. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of invasive breast cancer by levels of folate and alcohol intake. RESULTS: A total of 3483 cases of breast cancer were documented. Total folate intake was not associated with overall risk of breast cancer. However, among women who consumed at least 15 g/d of alcohol, the risk of breast cancer was highest among those with low folate intake. For total folate intake of at least 600 microg/d compared with 150 to 299 microg/d, the multivariate relative risk (RR) was 0.55 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-0.76; P for trend = .001). This association was only slightly attenuated after additional adjustment for intake of beta carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin, preformed vitamin A, and total vitamins C and E. The risk of breast cancer associated with alcohol intake was strongest among women with total folate intake of less than 300 microg/d (for alcohol intake > or =15 g/d vs <15 g/d, multivariate RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.15-1.50). For women who consumed at least 300 microg/d of total folate, the multivariate RR for intake of at least 15 g/d of alcohol vs less than 15 g/d was 1.05 (95% CI, 0.92-1.20). Current use of multivitamin supplements, the major source of folate, was associated with lower breast cancer risk among women who consumed at least 15 g/d of alcohol (for current users of supplements vs never users, RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.59-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the excess risk of breast cancer associated with alcohol consumption may be reduced by adequate folate intake.     

Prevalence and Determinants of Hypertension in a Rural Community

Background

There are few epidemiological studies on prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in rural population. This cross sectional study was done to determine the same in a rural community.

Methods

A random sample of 406 people (218 men and 188 women) of 30 years and above was selected from a rural area. The pre tested proforma was used to collect the data by trained doctors.

Result

Prevalence of smoking and tobacco use was 16%, alcohol intake 9.4 %, daily salt intake (≥ 5 gram) 34.2%, daily saturated fat intake (≥ 10 % of daily energy intake) 47 .0 % and physical inactivity (work and leisure) as 18.5%. Body Mass Index (BMI) was ≥ 25 in 18 % and ≥ 30 in 3.2% men and women. Prevalence of truncal obesity (Waist Hip Ratio: men ≥ 0.9; women ≥ 0.8) was 8.5% with higher incidence in men. Prevalence of abdominal obesity (men ≥ 102 cms; women ≥ 88 cms) was found in 15.7 % with higher incidence in men. Differences in prevalence of risk factors between men and women were statistically significant in case of smoking, alcohol consumption and abdominal obesity. 18.5% men and women were suffering from systolic hypertension (≥ 140 mg Hg) and 15 % from diastolic hypertension (≥ 90 mg Hg). Prevalence of risk factors for hypertension was significantly more among subjects suffering from systolic and diastolic hypertension than normotensive subjects.

Conclusion

Prevalence of systolic hypertension in rural community was 18.5 % and of diastolic hypertension 15% with higher prevalence in the age group of 60 years and above, in case of men and women. There was a significant linear trend in prevalence of systolic hypertension with respect to age group in men whereas it was not significant in case of women.Key Words: Hypertension, Prevalence, Determinants, Rural community     

Vegetable protein and fiber from cereal are inversely associated with the risk of hypertension in a Spanish cohort

BACKGROUND: Some cross-sectional studies suggest that fiber and protein intake can be associated with lower levels of blood pressure, but results from prospective cohorts are scarce and none has been conducted outside the U.S. METHODS: The SUN cohort followed-up prospectively 5880 Spanish men and women older than 20 years of age, all university graduates. Dietary information was gathered at baseline with a previously validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. New cases of medically diagnosed hypertension (HT) were identified through responses to a mailed questionnaire after at least 2 years from recruitment. RESULTS: One hundred and eighty new cases of HT were ascertained after a median follow-up of 28 months. After adjustment for potential confounders and several dietary factors, participants in the highest quintile of vegetable protein intake had a lower risk of incident HT compared with those in the lowest quintile [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2-0.9, p for trend = 0.06]. Similarly, fiber from cereals was inversely associated with a lower risk of HT (HR comparing fifth vs. first quintile = 0.6, 95% CI 0.3-1.0, p for trend = 0.05). Risk reduction was more important among men and obese and older individuals. Total or animal protein and total fiber as well as fiber from other sources different from cereal were not associated with the risk of HT. CONCLUSIONS: In this Mediterranean cohort, dietary intake of vegetable protein and fiber from cereals was associated with a lower risk of HT when other nutrients were also taken into consideration.     

Alcohol consumption and the risk of cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk levels for the development of cirrhosis in Australian men who consume alcohol and to compare this risk with that of Australian women. DESIGN AND SETTING: A case-control study using an interview technique, based in two major tertiary referral hospitals in Sydney. PATIENTS: Forty-three men with newly diagnosed cirrhosis of the liver and a total of 115 male control subjects, age matched with the case subjects. The data for women (36 cases and 99 controls) have been reported previously. RESULTS: The risk of men developing cirrhosis increases significantly above the baseline when the alcohol intake exceeds 40 g per day. The risk to women is significant at a similar intake level. Dietary intake and past major illnesses appear to have no role in determining risk. CONCLUSION: The recommended safe drinking level for men and women should be 40 g per day, as suggested by the National Health and Medical Research Council.     

Whole grain consumption and risk of ischemic stroke in women: A prospective study

CONTEXT: Although increased intake of grain products has been recommended to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD), prospective data examining the relation of whole grain intake to risk of ischemic stroke are sparse, especially among women. OBJECTIVE: To examine the hypothesis that higher whole grain intake reduces the risk of ischemic stroke in women. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prospective cohort of 75,521 US women aged 38 to 63 years without previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, or other CVDs in 1984, who completed detailed food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) in 1984, 1986, 1990, and 1994, and were followed up for 12 years as part of the Nurses' Health Study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischemic stroke, confirmed by medical records, by quintile of whole grain intake according to FFQ responses. RESULTS: During 861,900 person-years of follow-up, 352 confirmed incident cases of ischemic stroke occurred. We observed an inverse association between whole grain intake and ischemic stroke risk. The age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) from the lowest to highest quintiles of whole grain intake were 1.00 (referent), 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.49-0.94), 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51-0.95), 0.49 (95% CI, 0.35-0.69), and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.42-0.78; P =.003 for trend). Adjustment for smoking modestly attenuated this association (RR comparing extreme quintiles, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.47-0.89). This inverse association remained essentially unchanged with further adjustment for known CVD risk factors, including saturated fat and transfatty acid intake (multivariate-adjusted RR comparing extreme quintiles, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.50-0.98). The inverse relation between whole grain intake and risk of ischemic stroke was also consistently observed among subgroups of women who never smoked, did not drink alcohol, did not exercise regularly, or who did not use postmenopausal hormones. No significant association was observed between total grain intake and risk of ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, higher intake of whole grain foods was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke among women, independent of known CVD risk factors. These prospective data support the notion that higher intake of whole grains may reduce the risk of ischemic stroke.     

A prospective study of egg consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease in men and women

CONTEXT: Reduction in egg consumption has been widely recommended to lower blood cholesterol levels and prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). Epidemiologic studies on egg consumption and risk of CHD are sparse. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between egg consumption and risk of CHD and stroke in men and women. DESIGN AND SETTING: Two prospective cohort studies, the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-1994) and the Nurses' Health Study (1980-1994). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 37851 men aged 40 to 75 years at study outset and 80082 women aged 34 to 59 years at study outset, free of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, or cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal CHD, and stroke corresponding to daily egg consumption as determined by a food-frequency questionnaire. RESULTS: We documented 866 incident cases of CHD and 258 incident cases of stroke in men during 8 years of follow-up and 939 incident cases of CHD and 563 incident cases of stroke in women during 14 years of follow-up. After adjustment for age, smoking, and other potential CHD risk factors, we found no evidence of an overall significant association between egg consumption and risk of CHD or stroke in either men or women. The relative risks (RRs) of CHD across categories of intake were less than 1 per week (1.0), 1 per week (1.06), 2 to 4 per week (1.12), 5 to 6 per week (0.90), and > or =1 per day (1.08) (P for trend = .75) for men; and less than 1 per week (1.0), 1 per week (0.82), 2 to 4 per week (0.99), 5 to 6 per week (0.95), and > or =1 per day (0.82) (P for trend = .95) for women. In subgroup analyses, higher egg consumption appeared to be associated with increased risk of CHD only among diabetic subjects (RR of CHD comparing more than 1 egg per day with less than 1 egg per week among diabetic men, 2.02 [95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.87; P for trend = .04], and among diabetic women, 1.49 [0.88-2.52; P for trend = .008]). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that consumption of up to 1 egg per day is unlikely to have substantial overall impact on the risk of CHD or stroke among healthy men and women. The apparent increased risk of CHD associated with higher egg consumption among diabetic participants warrants further research.     

Fruit and vegetable intake in relation to risk of ischemic stroke.

CONTEXT: Few studies have evaluated the relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between fruit and vegetable intake and ischemic stroke. DESIGN, SETTING, AND SUBJECTS: Prospective cohort studies, including 75 596 women aged 34 to 59 years in the Nurses' Health Study with 14 years of follow-up (1980-1994), and 38683 men aged 40 to 75 years in the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study with 8 years of follow-up (1986-1994). All individuals were free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischemic stroke by quintile of fruit and vegetable intake. RESULTS: A total of 366 women and 204 men had an ischemic stroke. After controlling for standard cardiovascular risk factors, persons in the highest quintile of fruit and vegetable intake (median of 5.1 servings per day among men and 5.8 servings per day among women) had a relative risk (RR) of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-0.92) compared with those in the lowest quintile. An increment of 1 serving per day of fruits or vegetables was associated with a 6% lower risk of ischemic stroke (RR, 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.90-0.99; P =.01, test for trend). Cruciferous vegetables (RR, 0.68 for an increment of 1 serving per day; 95% CI, 0.49-0.94), green leafy vegetables (RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.62-0.99), citrus fruit including juice (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.96), and citrus fruit juice (RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) contributed most to the apparent protective effect of total fruits and vegetables. Legumes or potatoes were not associated with lower ischemic stroke risk. The multivariate pooled RR for total stroke was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.93-1.00) for each increment of 2 servings per day. CONCLUSIONS: These data support a protective relationship between consumption of fruit and vegetables-particularly cruciferous and green leafy vegetables and citrus fruit and juice-and ischemic stroke risk.     

阿尔茨海默病的心理社会危险因素研究

探讨阿尔茨海默病（Ａｌｚｈｅｉｍｅｒｄｉｓｅａｓｅ,ＡＤ）的心理社会危险因素,方法在城市社区中分层整群抽样,１０年间对同一批５５岁及以上人群完成两次二阶段法调查。统计ＡＤ发病率,以Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型分析１０年前的心理社会因素对以后发生ＡＤ的影响作用。结果４８９６名１９８７年时非痴呆时,于１９９７年实访１２０３名。其中按ＤＳＭ－Ⅲ－Ｒ标准诊的发生科研部呆病人１２４例,８１例为符合ＮＩＮＣＤＳ／ＡＤ     

Risk functions for prediction of cardiovascular disease in elderly Australians: the Dubbo Study

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a Framingham risk function for coronary heart disease in an elderly Australian cohort and to derive a risk function for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in elderly Australians. DESIGN AND SETTING: Analysis of data from a prospective cohort study (the Dubbo Study) in a semi-urban town (population, 34 000). PARTICIPANTS: 2805 men and women 60 years and older living in the community, first assessed in 1988, and a subcohort of 2102 free of CVD at study entry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary death or stroke) over 5 and 10 years. RESULTS: A Framingham risk function assessing "hard" coronary heart disease (ie, myocardial infarction or coronary death) accurately predicted 10-year incidence in men and women aged 60-79 years who were free of prevalent CVD or diabetes at study entry. In a multiple logistic model, CVD incidence was significantly predicted by age, sex, taking antihypertensive medication, blood pressure, smoking, total cholesterol level and diabetes. For a given age and cholesterol level, CVD risk over 5 years was doubled in the presence of antihypertensive medication or diabetes, increased by 50% with cigarette smoking, and halved in women compared with men. CONCLUSIONS: We have derived a simple CVD risk function specifically for elderly Australians that employs risk factors readily accessible to all medical practitioners.     

Alcohol consumption in a healthy population. Relationship to gamma-glutamyl transferase activity and mean corpuscular volume

We analyzed the multivariate relationship between alcohol consumption and gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), and tobacco consumption. A group of 995 healthy outpatients (604 men and 391 women, 18 to 76 years old) were systematically examined. Daily alcohol consumption was established after an interview regarding complete dietary habits. Significant correlations have been found between daily alcohol intake and corresponding GGT and MCV values, .35 and .34, respectively, in men and .24 and .21 in women. Multiple regression analyses confirm the superiority of GGt over MCV as a laboratory marker of alcohol intake and show the advantage of using them together. A rough estimation of alcohol consumption is proposed as a first step in mass screening of heavy drinkers.     

Dietary fat and fiber in relation to risk of breast cancer. An 8-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVE--To address the hypotheses that dietary fat increases and fiber decreases the risk of breast cancer. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study with dietary assessment at baseline, using a validated, self-administered food frequency questionnaire. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS--89,494 women in the Nurses' Health Study who were 34 through 59 years of age in 1980 and who were followed up for 8 years (> 95% complete). RESULTS--1439 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed, including 774 among postmenopausal women. After adjustment for age, established risk factors, and total energy intake, we observed no evidence of any positive association between total fat intake and breast cancer incidence (relative risks [RRs] for increasing quintiles of fat intake were 1.0, 0.85, 0.96, 0.91, and 0.90; 95% confidence interval for highest vs lowest quintile, 0.77 to 1.07). Among postmenopausal women alone, corresponding RRs were 1.0, 0.89, 1.00, 0.95, and 0.91. Comparing extreme deciles of total fat intake (> or = 49% vs < 29% of total energy intake), the RR was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.08). A similar absence of any positive association was observed without adjustment for energy intake; for tumors less than 2 cm as well as 2 cm or greater in diameter; for saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fat; and after excluding the first 4 years of follow-up. Also, we found no suggestion of any positive association when using a more detailed and precise dietary questionnaire completed in 1984 (666 subsequent cases), even when women consuming less than 25% of energy from fat were used as the comparison group. No suggestion of a protective effect of dietary fiber was observed (RRs for increasing quintiles were 1.0, 0.95, 0.93, 1.02, and 1.02). CONCLUSIONS--These data provide evidence against both an adverse influence of fat intake and a protective effect of fiber consumption by middle-aged women on breast cancer incidence over 8 years. Nevertheless, the positive association between intake of animal fat and risk of colon cancer observed in many studies provides ample reason to limit this source of energy.     

东亚男性饮酒和卒中关系的前瞻性队列研究荟萃分析

目的 系统评价源自于中、日、韩关于饮酒和卒中关系的前瞻性队列研究,探讨东亚男性饮酒和卒中及全因死亡的关系.方法 检索Pubmed等数据库,纳入符合入选条件的前瞻性队列研究,记录研究来源国家、研究对象例数、性别、年龄(均数或中位数及间距)、随访期限、饮酒量(g/d)、与饮酒相关的卒中或死亡相对风险(RR)及95%可信区间(CI)等.根据异质性检验结果,采用随机或固定效应模型,以RR作为评价饮酒量与缺血性卒中或出血性卒中发病率及全因死亡率的风险效应指标.结果 共纳入17项前瞻性队列研究.样本量最小1 322人,最大108 461人,9项研究报道了全因死亡;7项报道了缺血性卒中、7项报道了出血性卒中.随访期间4.1～19.0年.分层比较显示每日饮酒量≤20、21～40、41～60、＞60 g/d的各组与不饮酒者比较,缺血性卒中风险(RR及95%CI)分别为0.85(0.78～0.93;P=0.0002)、0.94(0.79～1.11;P=0.46)、1.08(0.86～1.37;P=0.50)和1.24(0.96～1.59;P=0.10);出血性卒中风险分别为0.92(0.75～1.12;P=0.40)、1.11(0.96～1.28;P=0.17)、1.20(0.92～1.56;P=0.18)和1.74(1.32～2.28;P＜0.01);全因死亡风险分别为0.83(0.75～0.91,P=0.01)、0.93(0.87～0.99,P=0.03)、1.01(0.95～1.07;P=0.86)和1.32(1.29～1.36;P＜0.01).结论 在东亚男性人群中,少量饮酒(≤20 g/d)降低缺血性卒中的风险,过量饮酒使卒中(尤其是出血性卒中)、全因死亡的风险明显增加.适量饮酒的范围应每日酒精量不超过40g.     

Reproductive period and risk of dementia in postmenopausal women

CONTEXT: Exogenous estrogen use may lower risk of dementia in postmenopausal women. A relationship between long-term exposure to endogenous estrogens and incident dementia has been hypothesized but not studied. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a longer reproductive period, as an indicator of longer exposure to endogenous estrogens, is associated with lower risk of dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) in women who have natural menopause. DESIGN AND SETTING: The Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study conducted in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3601 women aged 55 years or older who did not have dementia at baseline (1990-1993) and had information on age at menarche, age at menopause, and type of menopause. Participants were reexamined in 1993-1994 and 1997-1999 and were continuously monitored for development of dementia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of dementia, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Revised Third Edition criteria, and AD, based on National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke/Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria, compared by quartiles of reproductive period among women with natural menopause. RESULTS: During 21 046 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 6.3 years), 199 women developed dementia, including 159 who developed AD. After adjusting for age, dementia was not clearly associated with length of reproductive period. However, after adjusting for multiple covariates, women with natural menopause and more reproductive years had an increased risk of dementia (adjusted rate ratio [RR] for women with >39 reproductive years [highest quartile] compared with <34 reproductive years [lowest quartile], 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.84). The adjusted RR per year of increase was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01-1.08). For risk of AD, the adjusted RRs were 1.51 (95% CI, 0.91-2.50) and 1.03 (95% CI, 1.00-1.07), respectively. Risk of dementia associated with a longer reproductive period was most pronounced in APOE epsilon4 carriers (adjusted RR for >39 reproductive years compared with <34 reproductive years, 4.20 [95% CI, 1.97-8.92] for dementia and 3.42 [95% CI, 1.51-7.75] for AD), whereas in noncarriers, no clear association with dementia or AD was observed. CONCLUSION: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that a longer reproductive period reduces risk of dementia in women who have natural menopause.     

Severity of alcohol dependence in patients with alcoholic liver disease

To determine the severity of dependence on alcohol in patients with alcoholic liver disease the severity of alcohol dependence questionnaire was administered to 193 patients with various types of alcoholic liver disease established histologically, in whom a detailed history of lifetime alcohol consumption was also obtained. Only 34 patients (18%) were classified as being severely dependent compared with 56% of patients without overt liver disease who were attending a neighbouring alcohol treatment unit. There was a significant correlation between the severity of dependence and mean daily alcohol consumption (r = 0.45 and 0.39 for men and women, respectively) but not duration of drinking. Dependence scores tended to be lower in patients with cirrhosis than in those with precirrhotic liver disease, but this difference reached significance only in women. These findings confirm that patients who develop chronic alcoholic liver disease are usually only mildly dependent on alcohol and support the hypothesis that patients who escape florid symptoms of alcohol dependence are at greater risk of developing liver damage because they are able to sustain a continual consumption of alcohol over many years.     

Smoking and diabetes in Chinese men

Smoking is a major cardiovascular risk factor and cause of death. Diabetes mellitus is also associated with an increased mortality and morbidity. Evidence concerning whether smoking increases the incidence of diabetes remains conflicting. Glycaemic status and smoking habits were analysed in 3718 Chinese subjects in order to assess the possible association between smoking and risk of diabetes in the Chinese population. The World Health Organisation 1998 criteria were used for the diagnosis of glucose intolerance. Smoking was defined as current cigarette smoking or ex-smoking without regard to daily consumption. The smoking habits of the studied subjects were correlated with glycaemic status. There were 3003 (80.8%) women and 715 (19.2%) men. The mean age (SD) was 38.4 (12.8) years (median 35.0, range 12-88 years). Of the 3718 subjects, 786 (21.1%) had diabetes, 708 (19.1%) had impaired glucose tolerance, and 2224 (59.8%) had normal results. Of the 3003 women, only 87 (2.9%) were smokers. The female smokers were younger, heavier, and had higher alcohol consumption than non-smokers. The prevalence of diabetes was similar between female smokers and non-smokers after adjustment for age, body mass index, family history of diabetes, and alcohol. Of the 715 men, 175 (24.5%) were smokers. The male smokers were younger, had lower blood pressure, and higher alcohol consumption. After adjustment for age, body mass index, family history of diabetes and alcohol, the male smokers had lower blood pressure, higher one hour plasma glucose, and more diabetes. Using logistic regression analysis (stepwise forward) with age, body mass index, alcohol, smoking, and family history of diabetes as independent variables to predict the risk of having diabetes, age and body mass index are independently associated with diabetes in both men and women. In addition, smoking is independently associated with the risk of diabetes in men, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval, CI) being 1.705 (1.106 to 2.630). Family history of diabetes is independently associated with the risk of diabetes in women, and the odds ratio (95% CI) is 1.643 (1.314, to 2.053). In conclusion, it was found that smoking is independently associated with diabetes after adjustment for age, body mass index, alcohol, and family history of diabetes in Hong Kong Chinese men, the odds ratio being 1.7. The prevalence of smoking in Hong Kong Chinese women is low and its association with diabetes is inconclusive.     

Are the urban poor vulnerable to non-communicable diseases? A survey of risk factors for non-communicable diseases in urban slums of Faridabad

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases have modifiable risk factors, which are easy to measure and can help in planning effective interventions. We established a community-based sentinel surveillance to estimate the prevalence and level of common risk factors for major non-communicable diseases as part of a joint Indian Council of Medical Research/WHO initiative. METHODS: This survey was done from February 2003 to June 2004 and included 1260 men and 1 304 women 15-64 years of age living in urban slum areas of Ballabgarh block, Faridabad district, Haryana. A list of all slums in Ballabgarh block was obtained from the Municipal Corporation of Faridabad. Slums were selected by stratified cluster sampling. All households in the selected slums were visited and men and women interviewed in alternate households. The study instrument was based on the STEPS approach of WHO. It included questions related to tobacco use, alcohol intake, diet, physical activity, and history of treatment for hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Height, weight, waist circumference and blood pressure were measured. To estimate prevalence at the population level, age adjustment was done using the urban Faridabad population structure from the 2001 Census of India. RESULTS: The age-adjusted prevalence of smoking among men was 36.5% compared with 7% in women. Bidi was the predominant form of smoked tobacco used. The use of smokeless tobacco was reported by 10.2% of men and 2.9% of women. While 26% of men reported consuming alcohol in the past 1 year, none of the women did. The mean number of servings per day of fruits and vegetables was 2.7 for men compared with 2.2 for women. Overall, only 7.9% and 5.4% of men and women, respectively took > or = 5 servings per day of fruits and vegetables. Women were more likely to be physically inactive compared with men (14.8% v. 55%); 67% of men and 22.8% of women reported mean physical activity > 150 minutes per week. The mean body mass index (BMI) was lower in men than in women (20.9 v. 21.9 kg/m2). The prevalence of overweight (BMI > or = 25 kg/m2)) was 16% among men and 21.9% among women. The prevalence of hypertension (blood pressure > or = 1 40/> or = 90 mmHg or on an antihypertensive drug) was 17.2% in men and 15.8% in women. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases across all age groups in this urban slum community indicates the likelihood of a high future burden of illness. Immediate action for prevention and control is required to prevent the situation from worsening.     

China-PAR模型在北方农村人群中预测动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病发病风险的应用

目的：在中国北方农村人群的前瞻性队列中,独立验证并比较动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病（atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease,ASCVD）5年发病风险预测模型的准确性,对模型的实际应用进行评价并提供证据。方法：研究对象为2010年6至8月参加基线调查并随访至2017年1月的6 489名基线调查时未患ASCVD的40~79岁北京房山农村人群,分别采用美国心脏病学会/美国心脏协会指南最新发布的汇总队列公式（pooled cohort equations,PCE）和中国动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病风险预测研究（prediction for ASCVD risk in China,China-PAR）的模型计算预测的5年发病风险。通过Kaplan Meier方法调整获得5年实际观察到的新发ASCVD事件（包括急性心肌梗死、冠心病死亡以及致死和非致死性脑卒中）的发病率,并计算预测风险/实际发病率的比值以评价验证队列中是否存在风险高估或低估。研究人群按照ASCVD预测风险分为4个类别（＜5.0%、 5.0%~7.4%、 7.5%~9.9%以及≥10.0%）进行比较。采用区分度C统计量、校准度卡方值以及校准图评估模型的预测准确性。结果：在本验证队列6 489名研究对象平均5.82年的随访时间内,共出现新发ASCVD事件955例。China-PAR模型高估了ASCVD的5年发病风险,再校准后对男性和女性的发病风险分别高估了22.2%和33.1%;而PCE模型的高估程度更严重,再校准后男性和女性分别高估了67.3%和53.1%。China-PAR和PCE模型的区分度接近,C统计量及其95%可信区间在男性中分别为0.696（0.669~0.723）和0.702（0.675~0.730）,在女性中分别为0.709（0.690~0.728）和0.714（0.695~0.733）。China-PAR模型的校准度卡方值在男性和女性中分别为17.2和54.2,但PCE模型的校准度较差（男性和女性分别为192.0和181.2）。另外,只有China-PAR模型的校准图显示其预测风险与实际发病率的一致性较好,特别是在男性人群。结论：作为国内开展ASCVD风险评估和一级预防的工具,China-PAR模型对于中国北方农村人群ASCVD 5年发病风险的预测优于PCE模型,特别是在男性中更加准确。