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1.

Objective

To increase case-finding of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Zambia and their referral to HIV care and treatment by supplementing existing client-initiated voluntary counselling and testing (VCT), the dominant mode of HIV testing in the country.

Methods

Lay counsellors offered provider-initiated HIV testing and counselling (PITC) to all outpatients who attended primary clinics and did not know their HIV serostatus. Data on counselling and testing were collected in registers. Outcomes of interest included HIV testing coverage, the acceptability of testing, the proportion testing HIV-positive (HIV+), the proportion enrolling in HIV care and treatment and the time between testing and enrolment.

Findings

After the addition of PITC to VCT, the number tested for HIV infection in the nine clinics was twice the number undergoing VCT alone. Over 30 months, 44 420 patients were counselled under PITC and 31 197 patients, 44% of them men, accepted testing. Of those tested, 21% (6572) were HIV+; 38% of these HIV+ patients (2515) enrolled in HIV care and treatment. The median time between testing and enrolment was 6 days. The acceptability of testing rose over time.

Conclusion

The introduction of routine PITC using lay counsellors into health-care clinics in Lusaka, Zambia, dramatically increased the uptake and acceptability of HIV testing. Moreover, PITC was incorporated rapidly into primary care outpatient departments. Maximizing the number of patients who proceed to HIV care and treatment remains a challenge and warrants further research.  相似文献   

2.

Problem

Governments and donors encourage the integration of family planning into voluntary testing and counselling (VCT) services. We aimed to determine if clients of VCT services have a need for and will accept quality family planning services.

Approach

“Voluntary HIV counselling and testing integrated with contraceptive services” is a proof-of-concept study that interviewed 4019 VCT clients before the addition of family planning services and 4027 different clients after family planning services were introduced. Clients attended eight public VCT facilities in the Oromia region, Ethiopia. The intervention had four components: development of family planning counselling messages for VCT clients, VCT provider training, contraceptive supply provision and monitoring.

Local setting

Ethiopia’s population of 80 million is increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 2.5%. Contraceptive prevalence is only 15%. The estimated adult HIV prevalence rate is 2.1%, with more than 1.1 million people infected. The number of VCT facilities increased from 23 in 2001 to more than 1000 in 2007, and the number of HIV tests taken doubled from 1.7 million tests in 2007 to 3.5 million in 2008.

Relevant changes

Clients interviewed after the introduction of family planning services received significantly more family planning counselling and accepted significantly more contraceptives than those clients served before the intervention. However, three-quarters of the clients were not sexually active. Of those clients who were sexually active, 70% were using contraceptives.

Lessons learned

The study demonstrated that family planning can be integrated into VCT clinics. However, policy-makers and programme managers should carefully consider the characteristics and reproductive health needs of target populations when making decisions about service integration.  相似文献   

3.

Problem

Despite seven years of investment from the President''s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the expansion of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related services continues to challenge Mozambique’s health-care infrastructure, especially in the country’s rural regions.

Approach

In 2012, as part of a national acceleration plan for HIV care and treatment, Namacurra district employed a mobile clinic strategy to provide temporary manpower and physical space to expand services at four rural peripheral clinics. This paper describes the strategy deployed, the uptake of services and the key lessons learnt in the first 18 months of implementation.

Local setting

In 2012, Namacurra´s adult population was estimated to be 125 425, and of those 15 803 were estimated to be HIV infected. Although there is consistent government support of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes, national coverage remains low, with less than 15% of those eligible having received ART by December 2012.

Relevant changes

Between April 2012 and September 2013, Namacurra district enrolled 4832 new patients into HIV care and treatment. By using the mobile clinic strategy for ART expansion, the district was able to expand provision of ART from two to six (of a desired seven) clinics by September 2013.

Lessons learnt

Mobile clinic strategies could rapidly expand HIV care and treatment in under-funded settings in ways that both build local capacity and are sustainable for local health systems. The clinics best serve as a transition to improved capacity at fixed-site services.  相似文献   

4.

Setting:

A regional hospital in rural Swaziland.

Objectives:

To evaluate a hospital-based contact screening programme and test approaches to improve its effectiveness.

Design:

An evaluation and quality improvement study of tuberculosis (TB) contact tracing services.

Results:

Hospital-based TB contact tracing led to screening of 157 (24%) of 658 contacts; of these, 4 (2.5%) were diagnosed with TB. Of 68 contacts eligible for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and counselling, 45 (66%) were tested and 7/45 (16%) were identified as HIV-positive. Twelve (50%) of 24 screened contacts aged <5 years were provided isoniazid prophylaxis. Three enhanced models of TB contact tracing were piloted to screen contacts in the community. Although some enhanced models screened large numbers of contacts, no contacts were diagnosed with TB.

Conclusion:

Contact tracing of household members conducted in TB clinics within hospital settings is effective in high-burden, low-income settings, and can be provided using current resources. Enhanced household contact tracing models that followed up contacts in the community were not found to be effective. Additional resources would be required to provide household TB contact tracing in the community.  相似文献   

5.

Objective

To assess the availability of essential health services in northern Liberia in 2008, five years after the end of the civil war.

Methods

We carried out a population-based household survey in rural Nimba county and a health facility survey in clinics and hospitals nearest to study villages. We evaluated access to facilities that provide index essential services: artemisinin combination therapy for malaria, integrated management of childhood illness, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) counselling and testing, basic emergency obstetric care and treatment of mental illness.

Findings

Data were obtained from 1405 individuals (98% response rate) selected with a three-stage population-representative sampling method, and from 43 of Nimba county’s 49 health facilities selected because of proximity to the study villages. Respondents travelled an average of 136 minutes to reach a health facility. All respondents could access malaria treatment at the nearest facility and 55.9% could access HIV testing. Only 26.8%, 14.5%, and 12.1% could access emergency obstetric care, integrated management of child illness and mental health services, respectively.

Conclusion

Although there has been progress in providing basic services, rural Liberians still have limited access to life-saving health care. The reasons for the disparities in the services available to the population are technical and political. More frequently available services (HIV testing, malaria treatment) were less complex to implement and represented diseases favoured by bilateral and multilateral health sector donors. Systematic investments in the health system are required to ensure that health services respond to current and future health priorities.  相似文献   

6.

Objective

To quantify the deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) that are misattributed to other causes in South Africa’s death registration data and to adjust for this bias.

Methods

Deaths in the World Health Organization’s mortality database were distributed among 48 mutually exclusive causes. For each cause, age- and sex-specific global death rates were compared with the average rate among people aged 65–69, 70–74 and 75–79 years to generate “relative” global death rates. Relative rates were also computed for South Africa alone. Differences between global and South African relative death rates were used to identify the causes to which deaths from HIV/AIDS were misattributed in South Africa and quantify the HIV/AIDS deaths misattributed to each. These deaths were then reattributed to HIV/AIDS.

Findings

In South Africa, deaths from HIV/AIDS are often misclassified as being caused by 14 other conditions. Whereas in 1996–2006 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS accounted for 2.0–2.5% of all registered deaths in South Africa, our analysis shows that the true cause-specific mortality fraction rose from 19% (uncertainty range: 7–28%) to 48% (uncertainty range: 38–50%) over that period. More than 90% of HIV/AIDS deaths were found to have been misattributed to other causes during 1996–2006.

Conclusion

Adjusting for cause of death misclassification, a simple procedure that can be carried out in any country, can improve death registration data and provide empirical estimates of HIV/AIDS deaths that may be useful in assessing estimates from demographic models.  相似文献   

7.

PURPOSE

The decision and ability of primary care clinician to make recommendations for routine human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccines are shaped by knowledge of their patient’s risk behaviors. For men who have sex with men, such knowledge requires disclosure of same-sex sexual behavior or sexual identity.

METHODS

Data were analyzed from a national survey of rural men who have sex with men (N = 319) to understand whether the disclosure of sexual identity to clinicians was associated with increased uptake of HIV testing and hepatitis vaccinations.

RESULTS

We found that disclosure of sexual identity to clinicians was significantly associated (OR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08–1.47) with uptake of routine HIV testing and HAV/HBV vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Our finding reinforces the need for safe, nonjudgmental settings for patients to discuss their sexual identities freely with their clinicians.  相似文献   

8.

Problem

A multinational company with operations in several African countries was committed to offer antiretroviral treatment to its employees and their dependants.

Approach

The Accelerating Access Initiative (AAI), an initiative of six pharmaceutical companies and five United Nations’ agencies, offered the possibility of obtaining brand antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) at 10% of the commercial price. PharmAccess, a foundation aimed at removing barriers to AIDS treatment in Africa, helped to establish an HIV policy and treatment guidelines, and a workplace programme was rolled out from September 2001.

Local setting

Private sector employers in Africa are keen to take more responsibility in HIV prevention and AIDS care. An important hurdle for African employers remains the price and availability of ARVs.

Relevant changes

The programme encountered various hurdles, among them the need for multiple contracts with multiple companies, complex importation procedures, taxes levied on ARVs, lack of support from pharmaceutical companies in importation and transportation, slow delivery of the drugs, lack of institutional memory in pharmaceutical companies and government policies excluding the company from access to ARVs under the AAI.

Lessons learned

The launch of the AAI enabled this multinational company to offer access to ARVs to its employees and dependants. The private sector should have access to these discounted drugs under the AAI. A network of local AAI offices should be created to assist in logistics of drugs ordering, purchase and clearance. No taxes should be levied on ARVs.  相似文献   

9.

Objective

To assess the sexual and reproductive health interventions included by countries in HIV-related proposals approved by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund).

Methods

We examined the Global Fund database for elements and indicators of sexual and reproductive health in all approved HIV-related proposals (214) submitted by 134 countries, from rounds 1 to 7, and in an illustrative sample of 35 grant agreements.

Findings

At least 70% of the HIV-related proposals included one or more of the four broad elements: sexual and reproductive health information, education and communication; condom promotion/distribution; diagnosis and treatment of sexually transmitted infections; and prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Between 20% and 30% included sexual health counselling, gender-based violence, and the linking of voluntary counselling and testing for HIV with sexual and reproductive health services. Less than 20% focused on adolescent sexual and reproductive health, the rights and needs of people living with HIV, or safe abortion services. All these elements were rarely featured, if at all, in the grant agreements reviewed. Overall, however, sexual and reproductive health indicators did appear in most HIV-related proposals and in more than 80% of the grant agreements.

Conclusion

Country coordinating mechanisms and national-level stakeholders see in funding for sexual and reproductive health a means to address the problem of HIV infection in their respective national settings. However, we highlight some missed opportunities for linking HIV and sexual and reproductive health services.  相似文献   

10.

Setting:

Puducherry, a district in South India with a low prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (<1% among antenatal women).

Objectives:

1) To estimate the proportion of patients with known HIV status who were HIV-positive, 2) to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with unknown HIV status among presumptive TB patients, and 3) to assess the additional workload at HIV testing centres.

Design:

In this cross-sectional study, consecutive presumptive TB patients attending microscopy centres for diagnosis during March–May 2013 were asked if they knew their HIV status. Patients with unknown HIV status were offered voluntary counselling and HIV testing.

Results:

Of 1886 presumptive TB patients, HIV status was ascertained for 842 (44.6%); 28 (3.3%) were HIV-positive. The uptake of HIV testing was significantly higher in younger age groups, males, residents of Puducherry and smear-positive TB patients. The median increase in the number of clients tested for HIV per day per testing centre was 1 (range 0–6).

Conclusion:

The uptake of HIV testing was low. HIV prevalence was higher among presumptive TB patients than in antenatal women, and as high as in TB patients. With minimal increase in workload at HIV testing centres, HIV testing could be implemented using existing resources.  相似文献   

11.

Problem

Comprehensive service delivery models for providing post-rape care are largely from resource-rich countries and do not translate easily to resource-limited settings such as Kenya, despite an identified need and high rates of sexual violence and HIV.

Approach

Starting in 2002, we undertook to work through existing governmental structures to establish and sustain health sector services for survivors of sexual violence.

Local setting

In 2003 there was a lack of policy, coordination and service delivery mechanisms for post-rape care services in Kenya. Post-exposure prophylaxis against HIV infection was not offered.

Relevant changes

A standard of care and a simple post-rape care systems algorithm were designed. A counselling protocol was developed. Targeted training that was knowledge-, skills- and values-based was provided to clinicians, laboratory personnel and trauma counsellors. The standard of care included clinical evaluation and documentation, clinical management, counselling and referral mechanisms. Between early 2004 and the end of 2007, a total of 784 survivors were seen in the three centres at an average cost of US$ 27, with numbers increasing each year. Almost half (43%) of these were children less than 15 years of age.

Lessons learned

This paper describes how multisectoral teams at district level in Kenya agreed that they would provide post-exposure prophylaxis, physical examination, sexually transmitted infection and pregnancy prevention services. These services were provided at casualty departments as well as through voluntary HIV counselling and testing sites. The paper outlines which considerations they took into account, who accessed the services and how the lessons learned were translated into national policy and the scale-up of post-rape care services through the key involvement of the Division of Reproductive Health.  相似文献   

12.

Problem

The introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa has improved the quality of life of millions of people and reduced mortality. However, substantial problems with the infrastructure for ART delivery remain.

Approach

Clinicians and researchers at an HIV clinic in Guinea-Bissau identified problems with the delivery of ART by establishing a clinical database and by collaborating with international researchers.

Local setting

The Bissau HIV cohort study group was established in 2007 as a collaboration between local HIV physicians and international HIV researchers. Patients were recruited from the HIV clinic at the country’s main hospital in the capital Bissau.

Relevant changes

Between 2005 and 2013, 5514 HIV-positive patients were treated at the clinic. Working together, local health-care workers and international researchers identified the main problems affecting ART delivery: inadequate drug supply; loss of patients to follow-up; and inadequate laboratory services. Solutions to these problems were devised. The collaborations encouraged local physicians to start their own research projects to find possible solutions to problems at the clinic.

Lessons learnt

The HIV clinic in Bissau faced numerous obstacles in delivering ART at a sufficiently high quality and patients’ lives were put in jeopardy. The effectiveness of ART could be enhanced by delivering it as part of an international research collaboration since such collaborations can help identify problems, find solutions and increase the capacity of the health-care system.  相似文献   

13.

Objectives

To investigate patients’ experiences of health services, and how these related to what they had expected to receive, and satisfaction with their care.

Design

Surveys of patients before and after their consultations in general practice and hospital outpatients departments.

Setting

Greater London and Essex

Participants

In total, 833 patients attending 21 hospitals (434 patients; 52%) and 22 general practices (399 patients; 49%) across Greater London and Essex sampled in clinics and a population survey.

Main outcome measures

Patient expectations of care, patient satisfaction.

Results

Compared with younger people, and those in black and ethnic minority groups, older people (aged 65+) and White British people had significantly higher overall realistic expectations of their care (pre-visit realistic expectations score: age 60+: mean 53.26 [standard deviation 13.73]; age <60: 56.20 [15.17]; White British: 54.41 [13.50]; Black and other ethnic groups: 56.90 [16.15]) and greater satisfaction post-consultation (satisfaction score age 60+: 1.71 [0.80]; age <60: 1.97 [0.97]; White British: 1.79 [0.89]; Black and other ethnic groups: 2.01 [0.95]). Pre-visit ideal and realistic expectations of care was not significantly associated with patient satisfaction, although met expectations (post-visit experiences) were. Elements of these which was predictive of satisfaction were communication with the doctor, information conveyed and clinical outcomes. Factors associated with satisfaction included having a sense of control over one''s life, being older, female, White British and attending general practice, compared with hospital outpatient clinics.

Conclusions

It is the ability of the system to meet patients’ expectations in respect of the emotional and human features of the consultation, and the clinical outcomes, that matter most to people. This research also questions prevailing stereotypes of older age: it is not the case that older patients are more satisfied with their care because their expectations are lower. In fact, they are higher, but they believe that they are being met.  相似文献   

14.

Objective

To determine whether the Mexico City Policy, a United States government policy that prohibits funding to nongovernmental organizations performing or promoting abortion, was associated with the induced abortion rate in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

Women in 20 African countries who had induced abortions between 1994 and 2008 were identified in Demographic and Health Surveys. A country’s exposure to the Mexico City Policy was considered high (or low) if its per capita assistance from the United States for family planning and reproductive health was above (or below) the median among study countries before the policy’s reinstatement in 2001. Using logistic regression and a difference-in-difference design, the authors estimated the differential change in the odds of having an induced abortion among women in high exposure countries relative to low exposure countries when the policy was reinstated.

Findings

The study included 261 116 women aged 15 to 44 years. A comparison of 1994–2000 with 2001–2008 revealed an adjusted odds ratio for induced abortion of 2.55 for high-exposure countries versus low-exposure countries under the policy (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.76–3.71). There was a relative decline in the use of modern contraceptives in the high-exposure countries over the same time period.

Conclusion

The induced abortion rate in sub-Saharan Africa rose in high-exposure countries relative to low-exposure countries when the Mexico City Policy was reintroduced. Reduced financial support for family planning may have led women to substitute abortion for contraception. Regardless of one’s views about abortion, the findings may have important implications for public policies governing abortion.  相似文献   

15.

Objective

To investigate the relationships between the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and underlying structural factors of poverty and wealth in several African countries.

Methods

A retrospective ecological comparison and trend analysis was conducted by reviewing data from demographic and health surveys, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) indicator surveys and national sero-behavioural surveys in 12 sub-Saharan African countries with different estimated national incomes. Published survey reports were included in the analysis if they contained HIV testing data and wealth quintile rankings. Trends in the relation between gender-specific HIV prevalence and household wealth quintile were determined with the χ2 test and compared across the 12 countries, and also within one country (the United Republic of Tanzania) at two points in time.

Findings

The relationship between the prevalence of HIV infection and household wealth quintile did not show consistent trends in all countries. In particular, rates of HIV infection in higher-income countries did not increase with wealth. Tanzanian data further illustrate that the relationship between wealth and HIV infection can change over time in a given setting, with declining prevalence in wealthy groups occurring simultaneously with increasing prevalence in poorer women.

Conclusion

Both wealth and poverty can lead to potentially risky or protective behaviours. To develop better-targeted HIV prevention interventions, the HIV community must recognize the multiple ways in which underlying structural factors can manifest themselves as risk in different settings and at different times. Context-specific risks should be the targets of HIV prevention initiatives tailored to local factors.  相似文献   

16.

Setting:

Intensive case finding (ICF) for tuberculosis (TB) is recommended by the World Health Organization among known human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients. However, ICF may also be appropriate in generalized patient populations.

Objective:

To evaluate the yield of ICF in a general medical clinic in a high HIV prevalence setting.

Methods:

A nurse designated as a ‘cough officer’ identified clinic attendees with cough of >2 weeks and collected sputum for evaluation at the hospital and provincial referral laboratories. We retrospectively evaluated the number and proportion of patients with microbiologically confirmed TB identified in 2007–2008.

Results:

Among 56 207 clinic attendees, 1442 (2.6%) TB suspects were identified and 122 (8.5%) were sputum Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) positive. Of 389 available results, 72 (18.5%) were auramine-positive and 99 (25.4%) were culture-positive; multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant TB were identified in 16 (16.2%). The number needed to screen was 11.8 patients to identify one ZN-positive case and 3.9 to identify one culture-positive case.

Conclusions:

A nurse-facilitated cough officer program successfully identified TB suspects and drug-susceptible and drug-resistant TB. Culture was more sensitive for TB screening and critical for identifying drug resistance. ICF is operationally feasible, and should be expanded to general medical clinics in high HIV and TB prevalence, resource-limited settings.  相似文献   

17.

Setting:

In 2008, the Kenya tuberculosis (TB) program reported low (31%) antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected TB patients.

Objective:

To confirm ART coverage and identify factors associated with HIV clinic enrollment and ART initiation among TB patients.

Design:

Retrospective chart abstraction of adult TB patients newly diagnosed with HIV and eligible for ART at 58 Nyanza Province TB clinics between October 2006 and April 2008. TB data were linked to HIV clinic data at 50 facilities that provided ART. Associations with HIV clinic enrollment and ART were evaluated.

Results:

Among 1137 ART-eligible TB patient records sampled, 32% documented HIV clinic enrollment and 29% ART. Date fields were largely incomplete; 11% of the patient records included HIV testing dates and ≤1% had dates for cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, HIV clinic enrollment and ART initiation. Adding HIV clinic data increased HIV clinic enrollment and ART documentation to respectively 62% and 44%. Among TB patients in HIV care, female sex, older age group and baseline CD4 documentation were associated with ART initiation.

Conclusion:

Linking data increased documentation of HIV clinic enrollment and ART uptake. Continued efforts are required to improve the documentation of HIV service delivery, especially in TB clinics. Interventions to increase ART uptake are needed for younger patients and men.  相似文献   

18.

Problem

Malawi’s national guidelines recommend that infants exposed to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) be tested at 6 weeks of age. Rollout of services for early infant diagnosis has been limited and has resulted in the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in very few infants.

Approach

An early infant diagnosis programme was launched. It included education of pregnant women on infant testing, community sensitization, free infant testing at 6 weeks of age, active tracing of HIV-positive infants and referral for treatment and care.

Local setting

The programme was established in two primary care facilities in Blantyre, Malawi.

Relevant changes

Of 1214 HIV-exposed infants, 71.6% presented for early diagnosis, and 14.5% of those who presented tested positive for HIV. Further testing of 103 of these 126 apparently HIV-positive infants confirmed infection in 88; the other 15 results were false positives. The initial polymerase chain reaction testing of dried blood spots had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 85.4%. Despite active tracing, only 87.3% (110/126) of the mothers of infants who initially tested positive were told their infants’ test results. ART was initiated in 58% of the infants with confirmed HIV infection.

Lessons learnt

Early infant diagnosis of HIV infection at the primary care level in a resource-poor setting is challenging. Many children in the HIV diagnosis and treatment programme were lost to follow-up at various stages. Diagnostic tools with higher PPV and point-of-care capacity and better infrastructures for administering ART are needed to improve the management of HIV-exposed and HIV-infected infants.  相似文献   

19.

Objectives

To investigate the effect of physician gender on consultation length in UK hospital outpatient clinics and compare this, through meta-analysis, with previous studies outside the UK.

Design

Observational data on clinic times were analysed and findings were combined in a meta-analysis with existing studies investigating the effect of physician gender on consultation length.

Setting

UK hospital practice.

Participants

A total of 174 observations of outpatient consultations with 10 hospital specialists (consultants) from different specialties in two UK hospital trusts.

Main outcome measures

Clinic times were recorded and analysis of consultation length was undertaken with physician gender as a covariate. Data were then synthesised through meta-analysis with 10 existing studies in this field.

Results

No statistically significant difference was found in the length of consultations for male and female doctors in these UK hospital settings. When pooled with existing studies, consultations with women doctors were found to be approximately two minutes longer than with men (p = 0.01).

Conclusions

Findings from this analysis of clinic consultations in the UK National Health Service do not support previous studies, which were undertaken predominantly in North America and primary care settings. Overall, meta-analysis suggests doctors’ gender may influence consultation length. Gender differences in communication should be considered in training clinicians and in overall clinical practice.  相似文献   

20.

Objective

To develop a model for identifying areas at high risk for sporadic measles outbreaks based on an analysis of factors associated with a national outbreak in South Africa between 2009 and 2011.

Methods

Data on cases occurring before and during the national outbreak were obtained from the South African measles surveillance programme, and data on measles immunization and population size, from the District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to investigate the association between the risk of measles in infants in a district and first-dose vaccination coverage, population density, background prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and expected failure of seroconversion. Model projections were used to identify emerging high-risk areas in 2012.

Findings

A clear spatial pattern of high-risk areas was noted, with many interconnected (i.e. neighbouring) areas. An increased risk of measles outbreak was significantly associated with both the preceding build-up of a susceptible population and population density. The risk was also elevated when more than 20% of infants in a populous area had missed a first vaccine dose. The model was able to identify areas at high risk of experiencing a measles outbreak in 2012 and where additional preventive measures could be undertaken.

Conclusion

The South African measles outbreak was associated with the build-up of a susceptible population (owing to poor vaccine coverage), high prevalence of HIV infection and high population density. The predictive model developed could be applied to other settings susceptible to sporadic outbreaks of measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.  相似文献   

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