Risk factors for recurrence after bowel resection for Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND Complications of Crohn's disease such as intestinal obstruction, fistula or perforation often need surgical treatment. Nearly 70%-80% patients with Crohn's disease would receive surgical treatment during the lifetime. However, surgical treatment is incurable for Crohn's disease. The challenge of recurrence postoperatively troubles both doctors and patients. Over 50% patients would suffer recurrence postoperatively. Some certain risk factors are associated with recurrence of Crohn's disease.AIM To evaluate the risk factors for endoscopic recurrence and clinical recurrence after bowel resection in Crohn's disease.METHODS Patients diagnosed Crohn's disease and received intestinal resection between April 2007 and December 2013 were included in this study. Data on the general demographic information, preoperative clinical characteristics, surgical information, postoperative clinical characteristics were collected. Continuous data are expressed as median(inter quartile range), and categorical data as frequencies and percentages. Kaplan-Meier method was applied to estimate the impact of the clinical variables above on the cumulative rate of postoperative endoscopic recurrence and clinical recurrence, then log-rank test was applied to test the homogeneity of those clinical variables. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors of postoperative endoscopic recurrence and clinical recurrence.RESULTS A total of 64 patients were included in this study. The median follow-up time for the patients was 17(9.25-25.75) mo. In this period, 41 patients(64.1%) had endoscopic recurrence or clinical recurrence. Endoscopic recurrence occurred in34(59.6%) patients while clinical recurrence occurred in 28(43.8%) patients, with the interval between the operation and recurrence of 13.0(8.0-24.5) months and 17.0(8.0-27.8) mo, respectively. In univariate analysis, diagnosis at younger age(P 0.001), disease behavior of penetrating(P = 0.044) and preoperative use of anti-tumor necrosis factor(TNF)(P = 0.020) were significantly correlated with endoscopic recurrence, while complication with perianal lesions(P = 0.032) and preoperative use of immunomodulatory(P = 0.031) were significantly correlated with clinical recurrence. As to multivariate analysis, diagnostic age(P = 0.004),disease behavior(P = 0.041) and preoperative use of anti-TNF(P = 0.010) were independent prognostic factors for endoscopic recurrence, while complication with perianal lesions(P = 0.023) was an independent prognostic factor for clinical recurrence.CONCLUSION Diagnostic age, disease behavior, preoperative use of anti-TNF and complication with perianal lesions were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease.     

Prognostic factors in idiopathic myelofibrosis: a simple scoring system with prognostic significance

In a prognostic univariate analysis of a series of 80 patients with idiopathic myelofibrosis the Hb-concentration, the platelet count and osteomyelosclerosis emerged as factors with prognostic significance. A Hb-concentration less than 10 g/dl was associated with a significantly shorter survival than a Hb-concentration greater than or equal to 10 g/dl. A platelet count less than 100 x 10(9)/l also implied a significantly shorter survival. Patients with osteomyelosclerosis on X-ray of the skeleton had a significantly better prognosis as compared to those without osteomyelosclerosis. In a multivariate regression analysis the Hb-concentration consistently emerged as an important prognostic parameter, whereas the platelet count was only of prognostic significance within the first 6 months from diagnosis and the presence of osteomyelosclerosis emerged as a favourable parameter at 3 and 5 years. Based upon the above parameters and spleen size, a prognostic scoring system was designed which categorized the patients into three prognostic groups with highly different survival times (low risk group = 69 months; intermediate risk group = 33 months; high risk group = 4 months).     

A simple scoring system for risk-stratifying rectal cancer patients prior to radical resection

Background

Various predictors of perioperative risk for patients with rectal cancer undergoing radical resection have been well described, but no simple scoring system for surgeons to estimate this risk currently exists. The objective of this study was to develop a system for more accurate preoperative evaluations of competing risks and more informed shared decision-making with patients diagnosed with rectal cancer.

Methods

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Participant Use Data File for 2005–2011 was used to retrospectively identify patients undergoing radical resection for rectal cancer. A forward-stepwise multivariable logistic regression model was used to create a dynamic scoring system to preoperatively estimate a patient’s risk of major complications.

Results

A total of 6,847 patients met study inclusion criteria. Thirteen risk factors were identified, and using these predictive variables, a scoring system was derived to stratify major complication risk after radical resection.

Conclusions

The risk of a major complication after radical resection for rectal cancer is dependent on multiple preoperative variables. This study provides surgeons with a simple but effective tool for estimating major complication risk in rectal cancer patients prior to radical resection. This risk-stratification score serves as a patient-centered resource for discussing perioperative risks and assisting with the shared decision-making of operative planning.     

Prognostic factors of survival and a new scoring system for liver resection of colorectal liver metastasis

BACKGROUNDHepatic resection has become the preferred treatment of choice for colorectal liver metastasis (CLM) patients.AIMTo identify the prognostic factors and to formulate a new scoring system for management of CLM.METHODSClinicopathologic and long-term survival data were analyzed to identify the significant predictors of survival by univariate and multivariate analyses with the Cox model. A clinical score was constructed based on the analysis results.RESULTSThree factors of worse overall survival were identified in the multivariate analysis. They were number of liver metastases ≥ 5, size of the largest liver lesion ≥ 4 cm, and the presence of nodal metastasis from the primary tumor. These three factors were chosen as criteria for a clinical risk score for overall survival. The clinical score highly correlated with median overall survival and 5-year survival (P = 0.002).CONCLUSIONPriority over surgical resection should be given to the lowest score groups, and alternative oncological treatment should be considered in patients with the highest score.     

Assessment of a scoring system for predicting complications after esophagectomy

Complications occur frequently after esophagectomy. Identifying the risk of complications preoperatively may help in patient selection and postoperative management. We performed a retrospective review of patients who underwent esophagectomy between 1980 and 2009. A previously reported scoring system was used to estimate risk, and its ability to predict complications was assessed. A total of 514 patients (382 men; 74%) with a mean age of 59.0 ± 12.5 years underwent esophagectomy for cancer (398; 77%) or benign disease. Minor complications occurred in 224 patients (44%) and severe complications occurred in 134 patients (26%). The calculated risk score was based on weighted values for age, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, type of operation, and forced expiratory volume in the first second expressed as a percent of predicted (FEV1%). Increasing risk score was associated with a linear increase in the incidence of complications (P < 0.001 for either severe complications or any complications). The scoring system predicted severe complications with an accuracy of 65.3% (P < 0.001). Score groups identified an incremental risk of severe complications (0 to 6 = 12%; 7 to 13 = 18%; 14 to 20 = 28%; 21 to 27 = 36%; >27 = 52%; P < 0.001). Complications are frequent after esophagectomy and can be predicted using a previously reported scoring system. This scoring system may assist in patient selection for esophagectomy and in providing appropriate resources for postoperative management of higher risk patients.     

终末期肝病模型预测慢性重型肝炎患者预后影响因素的研究

目的 应用终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分系统预测慢性重型肝炎患者的预后并探讨年龄、性别、病因、低钠血症、顽固性腹水对MELD评分系统的影响.方法 对300例慢性重型肝炎患者进行MELD评分,计算3个月病死率,应用c-统计值评估MELD预测的准确性并分析该评分系统的影响因素.结果 MELD在20～29分的慢性重型肝炎患者3个月病死率为56.0%,30～39分者为76.5%,≥40分者为98.2%.评估MELD模型c-统计值为0.782.在单因素分析中,MELD在20～29分的慢性重型肝炎患者的病死率与年龄(P=0.047)、病因(P=0.039)、血清钠(P=0.029)和腹水(P=0.031)密切相关.多因素分析显示,MELD在20～29分时年龄(P=0.012)、病因(P=0.024),血清钠(P=0.005)和腹水(P=0.017)是预测慢性重型肝炎患者预后的独立因素.当MELD大于30分时,只有MELD积分(P=0.015)是预测慢性重型肝炎患者预后的独立因素.结论 MELD评分系统能准确预测慢性重型肝炎患者3个月的预后.MELD在20～29分时,年龄、病因、低钠血症、顽固性腹水对MELD评分系统有一定影响.当MELD大于30分时,只有MELD积分是预测慢性重型肝炎患者预后的独立因素.     

ERS: A simple scoring system to predict early recurrence after surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Surgical resection (SR) is a potentially curative treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) hampered by high rates of recurrence. New drugs are tested in the adjuvant setting, but standardised risk stratification tools of HCC recurrence are lacking.

Objectives

To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict 2-year recurrence after SR for HCC.

Methods

2359 treatment-naïve patients who underwent SR for HCC in 17 centres in Europe and Asia between 2004 and 2017 were divided into a development (DS; n = 1558) and validation set (VS; n = 801) by random sampling of participating centres. The Early Recurrence Score (ERS) was generated using variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS and validated in the VS.

Results

Variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS were (with associated points) alpha-fetoprotein (<10 ng/mL:0; 10–100: 2; >100: 3), size of largest nodule (≥40 mm: 1), multifocality (yes: 2), satellite nodules (yes: 2), vascular invasion (yes: 1) and surgical margin (positive R1: 2). The sum of points provided a score ranging from 0 to 11, allowing stratification into four levels of 2-year recurrence risk (Wolbers' C-indices 66.8% DS and 68.4% VS), with excellent calibration according to risk categories. Wolber's and Harrell's C-indices apparent values were systematically higher for ERS when compared to Early Recurrence After Surgery for Liver tumour post-operative model to predict time to early recurrence or recurrence-free survival.

Conclusions

ERS is a user-friendly staging system identifying four levels of early recurrence risk after SR and a robust tool to design personalised surveillance strategies and adjuvant therapy trials.     

Novel clinical risk scoring model for predicting mortality in patients with necrotizing fasciitis: The MNF scoring system

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a life-threatening soft tissue infection that rapidly progresses and requires urgent surgery and medical therapy. If treatment is delayed, the likelihood of an unfavorable outcome, including death, is significantly increased. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel scoring model for predicting mortality in patients with NF. The proposed system is hereafter referred to as the Mortality in Necrotizing Fasciitis (MNF) scoring system. A total of 1503 patients with NF were recruited from 3 provincial hospitals in Thailand during January 2009 to December 2012. Patients were randomly allocated into either the derivation cohort (n = 1192) or the validation cohort (n = 311). Clinical risk factors used to develop the MNF scoring system were determined by logistic regression. Regression coefficients were transformed into item scores, the sum of which reflected the total MNF score. The following 6 clinical predictors were included: female gender; age > 60 years; white blood cell (WBC) ≤5000/mm³; WBC ≥ 35,000/mm³; creatinine ≥ 1.6 mg/dL, and pulse rate > 130/min. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) analysis showed the MNF scoring system to have moderate power for predicting mortality in patients with NF (AuROC: 76.18%) with good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ²: 1.01; P = .798). The positive likelihood ratios of mortality in patients with low-risk scores (≤2.5) and high-risk scores (≥7) were 11.30 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.16–20.71) and 14.71 (95%CI: 7.39–29.28), sequentially. When used to the validation cohort, the MNF scoring system presented good performance with an AuROC of 74.25%. The proposed MNF scoring system, which includes 6 commonly available and easy-to-use parameters, was shown to be an effective tool for predicting mortality in patients with NF. This validated instrument will help clinicians identify at-risk patients so that early investigations and interventions can be performed that will reduce the mortality rate among patients with NF.     

Refractory anemia with excess of blasts: A multivariate analysis of prognostic factors in 91 patients and a simplified scoring system for predicting survival

Abstract: Prognosis in myelodysplastic syndromes is extremely variable. The prognostic value of the FAB classification has been demonstrated in many studies. However, within the same FAB subtype, some patients may experience prolonged survival, whereas others die in a few weeks. This prognostic heterogeneity makes the therapy decision difficult. In an attempt to identify significant prognostic factors for survival in refractory anemia with excess of blasts (RAEB), clinical and hematological characteristics were analyzed in 91 patients. Multivariate regression analysis showed that bone marrow total blast cells percentages, sex and hemoglobin level were the characteristics significantly associated with survival. A scoring index based upon these three characteristics may be proposed and had a great prognostic value (p < 0.00001). It allows us to separate patients into three groups with low, intermediate and high score with a median survival of 239, 133 and 45 days for each group respectively. This scoring index may be useful in the design of therapy and analysis of future clinical trials. However, its predictive value needs to be confirmed in other series.     

Risk factors for persistent diarrhea in infants

BACKGROUND: Persistent diarrhea is a multicausal disease. The analysis of risk factors for persistent diarrhea includes environmental and biological variables as well as therapeutical management. AIM: To identify risk factors for persistent diarrhea among children hospitalized with acute diarrhea. PATIENT AND METHODS: This is a case-control study. The sample consisted of 212 infants under 24 months, hospitalized with acute diarrhea, at the "Instituto Materno-Infantil de Pernambuco", Recife, PE, Brazil. Cases were infants with persistent diarrhea and controls those with acute diarrhea. Cases and controls were compared to a series of socio-economic, biological and clinical variables, previous morbidities and therapeutic management prior to hospital admission. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio were used with the respective 95% confidence intervals. It was adopted the level of significance of 5%. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to control for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: The risk of persistent diarrhea was higher for infants with: dysentery, fever at the onset of diarrhea, fasting and taking antibiotics prior to hospital admission. The variables that showed the highest adjusted odds ratios for persistent diarrhea were infants living in households without refrigerator and perianal hyperemia at hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: The improvement of environmental conditions and an adequate clinical management of diarrhea for hospitalized infants may contribute to the reduction of diarrhea morbidity.     

Simple scoring system for predicting cirrhosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

AIM:To investigate a simple noninvasive scoring system for predicting liver cirrhosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)patients.METHODS:A total of 1048 patients with liver-biopsyconfirmed NAFLD were enrolled from nine hepatology centers in Japan(stage 0,216;stage 1,334;stage 2,270;stage 3,190;stage 4,38).The weight and height of the patients were measured using a calibrated scale after requesting the patients to remove their shoes and any heavy clothing.Venous blood samples were obtained in the morning after the patients had fasted overnight for 12 h.Laboratory evaluation was performed in all patients.Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS version 12.0.Continuous variables were expressed as mean±SD.RESULTS:The optimal cutoff value of platelet count,serum albumin,and aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio(AAR)was set at<15.3 104/μL,<4.0g/dL,and>0.9,respectively,by the receiver operating characteristic curve.These three variables were combined in an unweighted sum(platelet count=1 point,serum albumin=1 point,AAR=1 point)to form an easily calculated composite score for predicting cirrhosis in NAFLD patients,called the PLALA(platelet,albumin,AAR)score.The diagnosis of PLALA≥2 had sufficient accuracy for detecting liver cirrhosis in NAFLD patients.CONCLUSION:The PLALA score may be an ideal scoring system for detecting cirrhosis in NAFLD patients with sufficient accuracy and simplicity to be considered for clinical use.     

Primary thrombocythaemia: diagnostic criteria and a simple scoring system for positive diagnosis

Forty new patients with elevated platelet counts (greater than 600 x 10(9)/l) and without palpable splenomegaly were assigned to diagnostic groups defined by essentially conventional criteria after 3 months follow up: Proliferative (17), reactive (17) or unclassified (six). Mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet distribution width (PDW), platelet nucleotide ratio (ATP:ADP), unstimulated BFU-E derived colony formation from peripheral blood, spleen scan and clinical ischaemia were assessed at the outset, with a view to defining diagnostic criteria for distinguishing primary thrombocythaemia from reactive thrombocytosis. All except the first variable were significantly associated with diagnostic group (P less than 0.05). A simple scoring system was devised: enlarged spleen on scan, or presence of BFU-E, each scored 2; elevated PDW (greater than 2 SD from mean), elevated ATP:ADP (greater than 4 SD from mean) or presence of clinical ischaemia, each scored 1. Score totals greater than or equal to 3 predicted primary thrombocythaemia, and totals less than 3 suggested reactive thrombocytosis (predictive value 89%). The system correctly predicted diagnosis in four out of four (probably six out of six) patients whose diagnosis was not apparent initially, and thus whose results were not used in constructing the scoring system. Exclusion of BFU-E from the system resulted in only one incorrect prediction in this group.     

A novel difficulty scoring system for laparoscopic liver resection

Early on, laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) was limited to partial resection, but major LLR is no longer rare. A difficulty scoring system is required to guide surgeons in advancing from simple to highly technical laparoscopic resections. Subjects were 90 patients who had undergone pure LLR at three medical institutions (30 patients/institution) from January 2011 to April 2014. Surgical difficulty was assessed by the operator using an index of 1–10 with the following divisions: 1–3 low difficulty, 4–6 intermediate difficulty, and 7–10 high difficulty. Weighted kappa statistic was used to calculate the concordance between the operators' and reviewers' (expert surgeon) difficulty index. Inter‐rater agreement (weighted kappa statistic) between the operators' and reviewers' assessments was 0.89 with the three‐level difficulty index and 0.80 with the 10‐level difficulty index. A 10‐level difficulty index by linear modeling based on clinical information revealed a weighted kappa statistic of 0.72 and that scored by the extent of liver resection, tumor location, tumor size, liver function, and tumor proximity to major vessels revealed a weighted kappa statistic of 0.68. We proposed a new scoring system to predict difficulty of various LLRs preoperatively. The calculated score well reflected difficulty.     

A scoring system for lung function tests in infants.

Measurements of thoracic gas volume (TGV), airway resistance (Raw), and airway conductance (Gaw) were calculated in a group of 42 normal infants using a whole-body plethysmograph. Maximum expiratory flow at functional residual capacity was measured in a separate group of 108 normal infants. Using data obtained from these infants the following regression equations were calculated: Gaw (L.s-1.cmH2O) = -0.0475 + 0.00164 x length (cm) square root of TGV (mL1/2) = -3.22 + 0.263 x length (cm) VmaxFRC (mL.s-1) = -173 + 5.2 x length (cm). The standard errors of prediction are a measure of the scatter of individual results from the normal population about the true regression line. They were used to define limits of the normal ranges for these tests of lung function, and to develop a scoring system. This approach is preferable to expressing results as percent predicted, which gives no indication of how likely a measurement is to be within normal limits.     

Simplified scoring system for predicting mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop a simplified scoring system based on pre-intervention clinical characteristics to predict in-hospital mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). BACKGROUND: Percutaneous coronary intervention is associated with variety of complications, including the risk of death. Factors leading to poor outcomes need to be identified. Currently available indexes are cumbersome and therefore seldom used. METHODS: Crude mortality and univariate odds ratios (ORs) for mortality associated with multiple clinical characteristics were calculated for 9,954 patients undergoing PCI at the William Beaumont Hospital during 1996 to 1998. Based on the OR, each factor was assigned a weighted score. Using these scores, a classification was constructed to determine the probability of death after PCI, with classes I through IV representing an increasing probability of procedural mortality. This classification was validated in a separate group of patients.RESULTS: The factors with the highest univariate odds of dying and their scores were: myocardial infarction <14 days = 7; elevated creatinine = 4; multivessel disease = 4; and age >65 years = 3. Classes were created based on the presence of these factors in a given patient. The odds of dying and mortality increased significantly with each class. These results were reproduced in the validation subset. CONCLUSIONS: Preprocedural clinical risk factors have a differential influence on the probability of death after PCI. Risk classification based on these factors can be used to accurately predict the procedural outcome. This simple classification can be used by interventionalists to assist in management decisions, to provide an estimate of procedural risk to the patients and relatives, and for quality assurance.     

A clinical scoring system for chronic inflammatory bowel disease in children

A clinical scoring system for the assessment of children with chronic inflammatory bowel disease has been devised. A close correlation is demonstrated between severity of disease and the level of serum albumin. The clinical score is simple to perform, sensitive to changes in clinical status, reproducible by different observers, and specifically designed to evaluate inflammatory bowel disease in children and adolescents. The clinical score is a useful adjunct in the management of children with chronic inflammatory bowel disease and can be used in prospective studies of various therapeutic modalities.