Population crises and population cycles

To prevent a population irretrievably depleting its resources, mammals have evolved a behavioural and physiological response to population crisis. When a mammalian population becomes dangerously dense, there is a reversal of behaviour. Co-operation and parental behaviour are replaced by competition, dominance and aggressive violence, leading to high mortality, especially of females and young, and a reduced population. The stress of overpopulation and the resulting violence impairs both the immune and the reproductive systems. Hence epidemics complete the crash of the population, and reproduction is slowed for three or four generations, giving the resources ample time to recover. In some mammal species, crisis and crisis response recur regularly, leading to cycles of population growth and relapse, oscillating about a fixed mean. Population crisis response and population cycles have been equally prominent in the history of human societies. But in man successive advances in food production have made possible growing populations, though with every such advance population soon outgrew resources again. Hence human cycles have been superimposed on a rising curve, producing a saw-tooth graph. Because advances in food production amounted to sudden disturbances in the relations between human populations and their environments, the crisis response in man has failed to avert famine and resource damage. In the large human societies evolved since the coming of settled agriculture and cities, the basic effects of violence, epidemics, famine and resource damage have been mediated by such specifically human disasters as inflation, unemployment, and political tyranny. An account of past crises, periods of relative relief from population pressure, and resulting cycles, is given for a number of regions: China, North Africa and Western Asia, the northern Mediterranean, and north-western Europe. The paper ends with an account of the present world-wide population crisis, and the solution made possible by Malthus's discovery that, unlike animals, we can choose to check population growth by reducing the birth-rate, instead of raising the death-rate, as in other mammals, by the population crisis response.     

World population perspectives 1985

Overpopulation is one of the major problems facing humanity in the final two decades of the twentieth century. Although some progress has been made in curbing global population growth much remains to be done, especially in Third World countries.

In recent years the major demographic changes in industrialized nations have been the continuing fall in birth rates and the increase in the relative and absolute numbers of older people. The transcendent feature in developing countries is the variability of conventional demographic indices such as birth rates, death rates and infantile mortality rates. The population giants, India and China, contain about half of the world's people and the success or otherwise of these countries’ population policies will be crucial for the future of mankind.

Doctors, as custodians of human welfare, must become deeply concerned about the world population crisis and in this way contribute to the forward movement of history.     

Violence and alienation: An issue of public mental health

This century has seen more extensive social and political change than ever before. Some, such as antibiotics, has been beneficial, but much has led to alienation and political and cultish ideologies. These in turn have spawned widespread violence. Not all violence is physical; some is inner‐directed and can lead to suicide. Some is inspired by genuine idealism but too often this degenerates into cruelty excused as a struggle with alleged evil. Violence can be nation‐ or even continent‐wide ‐Africa, Latin America, Middle East, Indochina, but also Europe including the former Soviet Union. It is also local, especially in inner cities throughout the world, linked to drugs but also as mindless vandalism.

Solutions must be both at the macro level, through the UN and its agencies; the UN charter must be revised to allow appropriate intervention within national borders. At the local level, underlying causes such as human rights abuses and unemployment can be put right. Much more research is needed but action cannot await the findings. The author's recent personal experience in Osijek in former Yugoslavia shows that the most important factor is the people themselves, but outsiders can provide knowledge, resources and support.     

On population aspects of group disasters: An evolutionary view

Simple mathematical models were constructed (using a DEC PDP 11/40 computer) to evaluate the probable significance of differences between individuals in adaptive reserve—survival time (modelled as “failure rate")—for group survival and of basic population parameters (fertility and mortality) for the gradual compensation of group size/age distribution of a population after an acute group disaster. The results indicate that reversion to prehuman biological regulative mechanisms probably occurs, and that after short‐lasting group disasters the time‐course for compensation (normalization) of population size and age distribution (when probable values of fertility and mortality were considered) is prolonged.     

HIV/AIDS and Debt Crises: Threat to human survival in Sub‐Saharan Africa*

Whether originating from the African primates in the Central African forest, or from polio vaccine trials by some western scientists, there is no doubt that HIV/AIDS poses the greatest single challenge to the marginalized poor of Africa, where it has found a malnourished, vulnerable, defenceless host. Collective response is necessary by physicians and health professionals who must be at the forefront of restoring hope and a dignified quality of life. In sub‐Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS is not a security threat but a painful slow death which forces victims into exhausting their lifetime savings on expensive medicines and massive hospital bills. It leaves helpless orphans to struggle for survival in countries where government subsidy on education and healthcare has been long withdrawn so as to channel the meagre state resources into debt servicing. A combination of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and Third World debt is subjecting millions of children to the worst form of violence. This article reviews the situation in sub‐Saharan Africa, with special reference to Kenya and South Africa as examples of countries devastated by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Changes elsewhere are noted and the global response is critically examined.     

Cell cycle arrest and aberration yield in normal human fibroblasts. I. Effects of X‐rays and 195 MeV u−1 C ions

Purpose: To examine the relationship between cell proliferation and the expression of chromosomal damage in normal human skin fibroblasts after X‐ray and particle irradiation.

Materials and methods: Confluent G0/G1 AG1522B cells were exposed to X‐rays or 195?MeV?u^?1 C ions with a linear energy transfer of 16.6?keV?µm^?1 in the dose range 1–4?Gy. Directly after irradiation, cells were reseeded at a low density in medium containing 5‐bromo‐2′‐deoxyuridine. At multiple time points post‐irradiation, the cumulative BrdU‐labelling index, mitotic index and aberration frequency were measured. Based on these data, the total amount of damage induced within the entire cell population was estimated by means of mathematical analysis.

Results: Both types of radiation exposure exert a pronounced effect on the cell cycle progression of fibroblasts. They result in delayed entry of cells into S‐phase and into the first mitosis, and cause a dramatic reduction in mitotic activity. Measurement of chromosomal damage in first‐cycle cells at multiple time points post‐irradiation shows that the frequencies of aberrant cells and aberrations increase with time up to twofold for the lower doses. However, for the higher doses, this effect is less pronounced or even disappears. When the data for the whole cell population are analysed, it becomes evident that only a few damaged fibroblasts can progress to the first mitosis, a response attributable at least in part to a long‐term arrest of injured cells in the initial G0/G1‐phase. As observed in other investigations, the effectiveness of 195?MeV?u^?1 C ions was similar or slightly higher than X‐rays for all endpoints studied leading to a relative biological effectiveness in the range 1.0–1.4.

Conclusions: Cell cycle arrests affect the aberration yield observable in normal human fibroblasts at mitosis. The data obtained for the cell population as a whole reveal that injured cells are rapidly removed from the mitotically active population through a chronic cell cycle arrest, which is consistent with other studies that indicate that this response is a specific strategy of fibroblasts to minimize the fixation and propagation of genetic alterations.     

David Josephs MBChB MFCM

Abstract

International relations is fundamentally about people. Psychology provides a wide range of tools to understand the rise of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism and offers part of the framework for its resolution. Western societies need to avoid being consumed with fear, revenge or anger which might lead to polarisation and perpetuate the cycle of violence. Understanding the enemy and the virulence of their ideas is essential to winning the hearts and minds of their potential supporters through dialogue, public diplomacy and foreign policy. The West needs to build trust, relationships, reputation and address double standards in its behaviour in order to build a global coalition of people with shared values. The concept of ‘war on terror’ has been damaging, not least by inhibiting western societies from the self-reflection required to overcome the challenge of terrorism.     

Global action to prevent war: A programme for government and Grassroots efforts to stop war,genocide and other forms of deadly conflict

Summary

At the end of history's bloodiest century and the outset of a new millennium, we have an opportunity to fulfil one of humanity's oldest dreams: making the world largely free of war.

Global changes make this goal achievable. Nuclear weapons have shown the folly of war. For the first time, there is no war and no immediate prospect of war among the main military powers. For the first time, many proven measures to prevent armed conflict, distilled in the crucible of this century's wars, are available. If systematically applied, these measures can sharply decrease the frequency and violence of war, genocide, and other forms of deadly conflict.

To seize the opportunity, nations should adopt a comprehensive programme to reduce conventional armaments and armed conflict. This programme will complement and strengthen efforts to eliminate nuclear arms. To assure its ongoing worldwide implementation, the conventional reduction programme should be placed in a treaty framework. We propose a four‐phased process, with three treaties, each lasting five to ten years, to lay the groundwork for the fourth treaty, which will establish a permanent international security system. The main objectives of the treaties are to achieve:

1. A verified commitment to provide full transparency on conventional armed forces and military spending, not to increase forces during negotiations on arms reductions, and to increase the resources allocated to multilateral conflict prevention and peacekeeping.

2. Substantial worldwide cuts in national armed forces and military spending and further strengthening of United Nations and regional peacekeeping and peace‐enforcement capabilities.

3. A trial of a watershed commitment by participating nations, including the major powers, not to deploy their armed forces beyond national borders except in a multilateral action under UN or regional auspices.

4. A permanent transfer to the UN and regional security organizations of the authority and capability for armed intervention to prevent or end war, accompanied by further substantial cuts in national armed forces and increases in UN and regional forces.

This programme offers many valuable features: a global framework for conventional forces that parallels the nuclear Non‐Proliferation Treaty; a verified no‐increase commitment for national armed forces based on full data exchange; a commitment to undertake prescribed confidence‐building measures, including limits on force activities and deployments; a commitment to a specified plan for increased funding of UN and regional peacekeeping capabilities; a commitment to strengthen international legal institutions; and after a trial period, a lasting commitment by each participant not to unilaterally deploy its armed forces beyond its borders, but instead to give the responsibility for peacekeeping and peace enforcement to international institutions.

This programme of phased steps to reduce armed forces and strengthen peacekeeping institutions will make war rare. It will foster the spread of zones of peace like those in North America and Western Europe where, after centuries of violence, international and civil war have given way to the peaceful settlement of disputes.     

Indexes

The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child grew out of protests against the male‐dominated violence of war, particularly in the Balkans, during two world wars. Many children have been killed, disabled, made homeless, and psychologically traumatized, particularly in intrastate wars, since the Second World War. Recently, large numbers of children have become soldiers, often after violent indoctrination. Several community‐based measures to prevent this abuse of children's rights are proposed.     

Family violence in Victoria,Australia: a retrospective case-control study of forensic medical casework

Objective

To identify the risk factors and assault characteristics of family violence among victims referred for forensic medical examination in Victoria, Australia.

Methods

A retrospective 1:1 case-control study was conducted, comparing adult family violence victims and non-family violence victims examined by clinical forensic practitioners from the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine, between July 2015 and June 2016. Data were extracted from victims’ forensic medical casework. Chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests and Mann-Whitney U tests were used to examine group differences. A multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine independent predictors of family violence.

Results

One hundred and forty-three family violence victims (97.2% female, Mdn_age = 29, 90.2% intimate partner violence) were identified and gender- and age-matched with controls. Family violence victims had significantly higher odds of reporting a history of violence victimisation (OR = 5.20; 95% CI, 2.54 to 10.66) and current pregnancy (OR = 5.28; 95% CI, 1.09 to 25.46) than controls. Family violence was significantly more likely than non-family violence to occur in the victim’s home, and to involve physical assault, use of weapon(s), trauma to the neck and anal sexual assault. Family violence victims sustained significantly more physical injuries, and were more likely to be injured to almost every bodily location, than controls.

Conclusion

This study highlights the importance of assessing and managing risk for family violence following initial victimisation and throughout pregnancy. Findings further indicate that family violence is more dangerous (i.e. more likely to involve severe forms of assault and cause injury) than non-family violence.

     

Genetic variation among the major Pakistani populations based on 15 autosomal STR markers

Pakistan is located at an important cross-road of human history and has been a passageway for many invaders and dynasties in the past. The historic human migrations across this country have resulted in a blend of ancient civilizations, which are still reflected in the current socio-cultural fabrication of this population. This makes Pakistan an ideal country to study the genetic differentiation and various other genomic aspects of a human population.

     

Spirituality: the basis for nurses' ethics

A social crisis in both the labor and ecological systems constitutes a problem that requires the formulation of a new ethics for humanity. The social crisis is a result of the organizational model used by modern societies in the production of wealth and its unequal distribution. This intense inequality in wealth distribution contributes to a schism between populations. On one side an opulent and privileged society exists, and on the other a poor and downtrodden humanity. This crisis in the labor system stems from automated production methods, which devalue man's work and exclude him from contemporary society. The ecological crisis emerges from the dominance with which men have subjugated the Earth and its resources. Man has not acknowledged Earth's permutations and, therefore, has not taken the necessary caution of such changeability nor respected its effects. Such crises affect all populations and cry out for attention. Contemporary societies demand solutions to these questions. Nursing is a part and parcel of this yearning. In this setting, the nurse should be able to offer collaboration and solidarity with a project of creating a world ethos based on a minimum consensus amongst humans. Understanding and believing that spirituality is invaluable in this process, the authors of this work aim at addressing it as an essential dimension for nurses' ethics.     

International medical co‐operation against hunger and disease

The priority health needs of the Third World are the eradication of mass poverty, famine and malnutrition. Social responsibility there requires physicians to address these needs. Development is aided by appropriate technologies, UN Agencies and international understanding.     

Inter‐group aggression: The multi‐individual organism and the survival instinct

Inter‐group aggression, carried out at the level of the in‐groups and out‐groups of ethnocentric theory, continued unabated throughout the twentieth century. Its frequency, together with its ferocity, indicates a potent biological cause. We have evolved as social animals, and it is postulated that evolution has proceeded to such an extent that ‘multi‐individual social organisms’, that is, ‘social groups that fight each other are self‐sustaining, self‐replicating wholes containing interdependent parts’. This results from the total integration of individuals into the social structure and culture of the in‐group; individuals are inseparable from their society and evidence for this proposal is given. Cohesion is given through the collective consciousness and collective memory. The analogy is to multicellular organisms that evolved from the association of single cell organisms. All biological organisms are subject to the survival instinct, which is thus the potent biological cause of inter‐group aggression. Groups compete for territory and see other groups as a threat. Prevention of inter‐group aggression should come from the insight that threatening behaviour endangers the integrity of the society of out‐groups, initiating conflict.     

Radicicol potentiates heat‐induced cell killing in a human oesophageal cancer cell line: the Hsp90 chaperone complex as a new molecular target for enhancement of thermosensitivity

Purpose: To examine the ability of a heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) chaperone complex inhibitor, radicicol, to modify thermal response and heat‐induced cell killing, and to clarify the underlining mechanisms.

Materials and methods: A human oesophageal cancer cell line (TE‐1), with a mutant p53 gene, was used. To examine the effect of radicicol on heat‐induced cell killing, radicicol at a concentration of 100?nM was incubated with the cells for 7?h during heat treatment. Changes in the expression of proteins were examined by Western blot and immunofluorescence analysis.

Results: Radicicol in combination with heat synergistically potentiated heat‐induced cellular killing despite an increase in the expression of Hsp72 and Hsp27 caused by radicicol. Heat alone activated Raf‐1 and p42/p44 extracellular signal‐regulated kinase (Erk), and heat in combination with radicicol inhibited the activation of Raf‐1 and p42/p44 Erk through reduced binding of Raf‐1 to Hsp90. Phosphorylation of Akt was also decreased by radicicol.

Conclusions: The Hsp90 chaperone complex inhibitor, radicicol, potentiated heat‐induced cellular killing, and inhibition of p42/p44 Erk and Akt activation rather than modification of Hsp expression might be involved in enhancing cellular thermosensitivity. Results suggest that the Hsp90 chaperone complex could be a new molecular target for the modification of the cellular response to heat.     

Some psychopathological and sociopsychological determinants of bloodthirstiness

This article briefly reviews the life histories of five recent bloodthirsty leaders to discern shared features of their early childhoods and their cultures related to this trait. Three features of societies that foster transformation of widespread latent into manifest bloodthirstiness are noted. Two areas especially warranting further study are the contributions of genetic‐organic factors and the relation of this trait to the power drive.     

Androgen and the blocking of radiation‐induced sensitization to Fas‐mediated apoptosis through c‐jun induction in prostate cancer cells

Purpose: To clarify the key mechanism by which androgen makes prostate cancer cells highly resistant to Fas‐mediated apoptosis.

Materials and methods: The role of c‐jun induction by 10?nM dihydrotestosterone (DHT) in 5?Gy radiation‐induced up‐regulation of Fas and sensitization to the apoptosis was studied by using the human prostate cancer cell line LNCaP.

Results: On exposure to 5?Gy radiation, LNCaP cells demonstrated high sensitization to Fas‐mediated apoptosis through increased Fas expression, stabilized p53 expression and binding to p53 response elements within the promoter and first intronic region of the Fas gene. Following treatment with DHT, in vivo binding of p53 to its response elements was strongly inhibited. In addition, DHT significantly up‐regulated c‐jun expression through extracellular stress‐regulated kinase (ERK) activation, and transfection of an antisense oligonucleotide for c‐jun or ERK inhibition by PD98059 cancelled DHT‐mediated suppression of radiation‐induced transactivation of Fas gene and sensitization to Fas‐mediated apoptosis.

Conclusions: Radiation‐induced Fas sensitization in prostate cancer cell was mediated through p53‐dependent transactivation of the Fas gene, which can be blocked by androgen stimulation mainly through induction of c‐jun.     

The Biology of non‐violence

This article reviews the examination of aggression in ethology. It concludes that though ethology establishes a biology of aggression, it does not conclude a biological determinism behind human violence. The article begins by examining this miscomprehension. Ethology shows a strong evolutionary tendency for aggression to be non‐violent behaviour. The human, as a higher order social animal, should conform to this. That we do not behave in this way is not a reflection of biology but that of the unique influence of culture on behaviour. Humans tend to non‐violence, biologically; it is culture that alters that tendency. How this is achieved is examined in the latter part of the article. In conclusion, ethologists, from Lorenz onwards, have argued that while aggression is rooted in human biology, violence is not, but has a cultural root. What culture has developed, it can alter, a positive optimistic message from ethology which is too often overlooked.