Sampling Patients Within and Across Health Care Providers: Multi-Stage Non-Nested Samples in Health Services Research

In order to better inform study design decisions when sampling patients within and across health care providers we develop a simulation-based approach for designing complex multi-stage samples. The approach explores the tradeoff between competing design goals such as precision of estimates, coverage of the target population and cost.We elicit a number of sensible candidate designs, evaluate these designs with respect to multiple sampling goals, investigate their tradeoffs, and identify the design that is the best compromise among all goals. This approach recognizes that, in the practice of sampling, precision of the estimates is not the only important goal, and that there are tradeoffs with coverage and cost that should be explicitly considered. One can easily add other goals. We construct a sample frame with all phase III clinical cancer treatment trials that are conducted by cooperative oncology groups of the National Cancer Institute from October 1, 1998 through December 31, 1999. Simulation results for our study suggest sampling a different number of trials and institutions than initially considered.Simulations of different study designs can uncover efficiency gains both in terms of improved precision of the estimates and in terms of improved coverage of the target population. Simulations enable us to explore the tradeoffs between competing sampling goals and to quantify these efficiency gains. This is true even for complex designs where the stages are not strictly nested in one another.     

The Effect of Health Plan Characteristics on Medicare+Choice Enrollment

Objective. To provide national estimates of the effect of out-of-pocket premiums and benefits on Medicare beneficiaries' choice among managed care health plans.
Data Sources/Study Setting. The data represent the population of all Medicare+Choice (M+C) plans offered to Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 1999.
Study Design. The dependent variable is the log of the ratio of the market share of the j th health plan to the lowest cost plan in the beneficiary's county of residence. The explanatory variables are measures of premiums and benefits in the j th health plan relative to the premiums and benefits in the lowest cost plan.
Data Collection Methods. The data are from the 1999 Medicare Compare database, and M+C enrollment data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).
Principal Findings. A $10 increase in an M+C plan's out-of-pocket premium, relative to its competitors, is associated with a decrease of four percentage points in the j th plan's market share (i.e., from 25 to 21 percent), holding the premiums of competing plans constant.
Conclusions. Although our price elasticity estimates are low, the market share losses associated with small changes in a health plan's premium, relative to its competitors, may be sufficient to discipline premiums in a competitive market. Bidding behavior by plans in the Medicare Competitive Pricing Demonstration supports this conclusion.     

The American Community Survey and Health Insurance Coverage Estimates: Possibilities and Challenges for Health Policy Researchers

Objective. To introduce the American Community Survey (ACS) and its measure of health insurance coverage to researchers and policy makers.
Data Sources/Study Setting. We compare the survey designs for the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS) that measure insurance coverage.
Study Design. We describe the ACS and how it will be useful to health policy researchers.
Principal Findings. Relative to the CPS, the ACS will provide more precise state and substate estimates of health insurance coverage at a point-in-time. Yet the ACS lacks the historical data and detailed state-specific coverage categories seen in the CPS.
Conclusions. The ACS will be a critical new resource for researchers. To use the new data to the best advantage, careful research will be needed to understand its strengths and weaknesses.     

Evaluation of the Effect of a Consumer-Driven Health Plan on Medical Care Expenditures and Utilization

Objective. To compare medical care costs and utilization in a consumer-driven health plan (CDHP) to other health insurance plans.
Study Design. We examine claims and employee demographic data from one large employer that adopted a CDHP in 2001. A quasi-experimental pre–post design is used to assign employees to three cohorts: (1) enrolled in a health maintenance organization (HMO) from 2000 to 2002, (2) enrolled in a preferred provider organization (PPO) from 2000 to 2002, or (3) enrolled in a CDHP in 2001 and 2002, after previously enrolling in either an HMO or PPO in 2000. Using this approach we estimate a difference-in-difference regression model for expenditure and utilization measures to identify the impact of CDHP.
Principal Findings. By 2002, the CDHP cohort experienced lower total expenditures than the PPO cohort but higher expenditures than the HMO cohort. Physician visits and pharmaceutical use and costs were lower in the CDHP cohort compared to the other groups. Hospital costs and admission rates for CDHP enrollees, as well as total physician expenditures, were significantly higher than for enrollees in the HMO and PPO plans.
Conclusions. An early evaluation of CDHP expenditures and utilization reveals that the new health plan is a viable alternative to existing health plan designs. Enrollees in the CDHP have lower total expenditures than PPO enrollees, but higher utilization of resource-intensive hospital admissions after an initially favorable selection.     

Managing Costs, Managing Benefits: Employer Decisions in Local Health Care Markets

Objectives.  To better understand employer health benefit decision making, how employer health benefits strategies evolve over time, and the impact of employer decisions on local health care systems.
Data Sources/Study Setting.  Data were collected as part of the Community Tracking Study (CTS), a longitudinal analysis of health system change in 12 randomly selected communities.
Study Design.  This is an observational study with data collection over a six-year period.
Data Collection/Extraction Methods.  The study used semistructured interviews with local respondents, combined with monitoring of local media, to track changes in health care systems over time and their impact on community residents. Interviewing began in 1996 and was carried out at two-year intervals, with a total of approximately 2,200 interviews. The interviews provided a variety of perspectives on employer decision making concerning health benefits; these perspectives were triangulated to reach conclusions.
Principal Findings.  The tight labor market during the study period was the dominant consideration in employer decision making regarding health benefits. Employers, in managing employee compensation, made independent decisions in pursuit of individual goals, but these decisions were shaped by similar labor market conditions. As a result, within and across our study sites, employer decisions in aggregate had an important impact on local health care systems, although employers' more highly visible public efforts to bring about health system change often met with disappointing results.
Conclusions.  General economic conditions in the 1990s had an important impact on the configuration of local health systems through their effect on employer decision making regarding health benefits offered to employees, and the responses of health plans and providers to those decisions.     

Specificity and Sensitivity of Claims-Based Algorithms for Identifying Members of Medicare+Choice Health Plans That Have Chronic Medical Conditions

Objective. To examine the effects of varying diagnostic and pharmaceutical criteria on the performance of claims-based algorithms for identifying beneficiaries with hypertension, heart failure, chronic lung disease, arthritis, glaucoma, and diabetes.
Study Setting. Secondary 1999–2000 data from two Medicare+Choice health plans.
Study Design. Retrospective analysis of algorithm specificity and sensitivity.
Data Collection. Physician, facility, and pharmacy claims data were extracted from electronic records for a sample of 3,633 continuously enrolled beneficiaries who responded to an independent survey that included questions about chronic diseases.
Principal Findings. Compared to an algorithm that required a single medical claim in a one-year period that listed the diagnosis, either requiring that the diagnosis be listed on two separate claims or that the diagnosis to be listed on one claim for a face-to-face encounter with a health care provider significantly increased specificity for the conditions studied by 0.03 to 0.11. Specificity of algorithms was significantly improved by 0.03 to 0.17 when both a medical claim with a diagnosis and a pharmacy claim for a medication commonly used to treat the condition were required. Sensitivity improved significantly by 0.01 to 0.20 when the algorithm relied on a medical claim with a diagnosis or a pharmacy claim, and by 0.05 to 0.17 when two years rather than one year of claims data were analyzed. Algorithms that had specificity more than 0.95 were found for all six conditions. Sensitivity above 0.90 was not achieved all conditions.
Conclusions. Varying claims criteria improved the performance of case-finding algorithms for six chronic conditions. Highly specific, and sometimes sensitive, algorithms for identifying members of health plans with several chronic conditions can be developed using claims data.     

Consumer Experiences in a Consumer-Driven Health Plan

Objective. To assess the experience of enrollees in a consumer-driven health plan (CDHP).
Data Sources/Study Setting. Survey of University of Minnesota employees regarding their 2002 health benefits.
Study Design. Comparison of regression-adjusted mean values for CDHP and other plan enrollees: customer service, plan paperwork, overall satisfaction, and plan switching. For CDHP enrollees only, use of plan features, willingness to recommend the plan to others, and reports of particularly negative or positive experiences.
Principal Findings. There were significant differences in experiences of CDHP enrollees versus enrollees in other plans with customer service and paperwork, but similar levels of satisfaction (on a 10-point scale) with health plans. Eight percent of CDHP enrollees left their plan after one year, compared to 5 percent of enrollees leaving other plans. A minority of CDHP enrollees used online plan features, but enrollees generally were satisfied with the amount and quality of the information provided by the CDHP. Almost half reported a particularly positive experience, compared to a quarter reporting a particularly negative experience. Thirty percent said they would recommend the plan to others, while an additional 57 percent said they would recommend it depending on the situation.
Conclusions. Much more work is needed to determine how consumer experience varies with the number and type of plan options available, the design of the CDHP, and the length of time in the CDHP. Research also is needed on the factors that affect consumer decisions to leave CDHPs.     

Medicaid Managed Care and Health Care for Children

Objective. Many states expanded their Medicaid managed care programs during the 1990s, causing concern about impacts on health care for affected populations. We investigate the relationship between Medicaid managed care enrollment and health care for children.
Data Sources and Measures. Repeated cross-sections of Medicaid-covered children under 18 years of age from the 1996/1997 and 1998/1999 Community Tracking Study Household Surveys ( n =2,602) matched to state-year CMS Medicaid managed care enrollment data. For each individual, we constructed measures of health care utilization (provider and emergency department visits, hospitalizations, surgeries); health care access (usual source of care, unmet medical needs, put-off needed care); and satisfaction (satisfaction overall, with doctor choice, and with last visit).
Study Design. Regression analysis of the relationship between within-state changes in Medicaid managed care enrollment rates and changes in mean utilization, access, and satisfaction measures for children covered by Medicaid, controlling for a range of potentially confounding factors.
Principal Findings. Increases in Medicaid health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollment are associated with less emergency room use, more outpatient visits, fewer hospitalizations, higher rates of reporting having put off care, and lower satisfaction with the most recent visit. Medicaid primary care case management (PCCM) plans are associated with increases in outpatient visits, but also with higher rates of reporting unmet medical needs, putting off care, and having no usual source of care.
Conclusions. Both Medicaid HMO and PCCM plans can have important impacts on health care utilization, access, and satisfaction. Some impacts may be positive (e.g., less ED use and more outpatient provider use), although concern about increasing challenges in access to care and satisfaction is also warranted.     

An Empty Toolbox? Changes in Health Plans' Approaches for Managing Costs and Care

Objective. To examine how health plans have changed their approaches for managing costs and utilization in the wake of the recent backlash against managed care.
Data Sources/Study Setting. Semistructured interviews with health plan executives, employers, providers, and other health care decision makers in 12 metropolitan areas that were randomly selected to be nationally representative of communities with more than 200,000 residents. Longitudinal data were collected as part of the Community Tracking Study during three rounds of site visits in 1996–1997, 1998–1999, and 2000–2001.
Study Design. Interviews probed about changes in the design and operation of health insurance products—including provider contracting and network development, benefit packages, and utilization management processes—and about the rationale and perceived impact of these changes.
Data Collection/Extraction Methods. Data from more than 850 interviews were coded, extracted, and analyzed using computerized text analysis software.
Principal Findings. Health plans have begun to scale back or abandon their use of selected managed care tools in most communities, with selective contracting and risk contracting practices fading most rapidly and completely. In turn, plans increasingly have sought cost savings by shifting costs to consumers. Some plans have begun to experiment with new provider networks, payment systems, and referral practices designed to lower costs and improve service delivery.
Conclusions. These changes promise to lighten administrative and financial burdens for physicians and hospitals, but they also threaten to increase consumers' financial burdens.     

Meeting the Need for State-Level Estimates of Health Insurance Coverage: Use of State and Federal Survey Data

Objective. Critically review estimates of health insurance coverage available from different sources, including the federal government, state survey initiatives, and foundation-sponsored surveys for use in state policy research.
Study Setting and Design. We review the surveys in an attempt to flesh out the current weaknesses of survey data for state policy uses. The main data sources assessed in this analysis are federal government surveys (such as the Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement, and the National Health Interview Survey), foundation-supported surveys (National Survey of America's Families, and the Community Tracking Survey), and state-sponsored surveys.
Principal Findings. Despite information on estimates of health insurance coverage from six federal surveys, states find the data lacking for state policy purposes. We document the need for state representative data on the uninsured and the recent history of state data collection efforts spurred in part by the Health Resources Services Administration State Planning Grant program. We assess the state estimates of uninsurance from the Current Population Survey and make recommendations for a new consolidated federal survey with better state representative data.
Conclusions. We think there are several options to consider for coordinating a federal and state data collection strategy to inform state and national policy on coverage and access.     

Employee Choice of Consumer-Driven Health Insurance in a Multiplan, Multiproduct Setting

Objective. To determine who chooses a Consumer-Driven Health Plan (CDHP) in a multiplan, multiproduct setting, and, specifically, whether the CDHP attracts the sicker employees in a company's risk pool.
Study Design. We estimated a health plan choice equation for employees of the University of Minnesota, who had a choice in 2002 of a CDHP and three other health plans—a traditional health maintenance organization (HMO), a preferred provider organization (PPO), and a tiered network product based on care systems. Data from an employee survey were matched to information from the university's payroll system.
Principal Findings. Chronic illness of the employee or family members had no effect on choice of the CDHP, but such employees tended to choose the PPO. The employee's age was not related to CDHP choice. Higher-income employees chose the CDHP, as well as those who preferred health plans with a national provider panel that includes their physician in the panel. Employees tended to choose plans with lower out-of-pocket premiums, and surprisingly, employees with a chronic health condition themselves or in their family were more price-sensitive.
Conclusions. This study provides the first evidence on who chooses a CDHP in a multiplan, multiproduct setting. The CDHP was not chosen disproportionately by the young and healthy, but it did attract the wealthy and those who found the availability of providers more appealing. Low out-of-pocket premiums are important features of health plans and in this setting, low premiums appeal to those who are less healthy.     

Tales from the New Frontier: Pioneers' Experiences with Consumer-Driven Health Care

Objective. To conduct site visits to study the early experiences of firms offering consumer-driven health care (CDHC) plans to their employees and firms that provide CDHC products.
Data Sources/Study Setting. A convenience sample of three firms offering CDHC products to their employees, one of which is also a large insurer, and one firm offering an early CDHC product to employers.
Study Design. We conducted onsite interviews of four companies during the spring and summer of 2003. These four cases were not selected randomly. We contacted organizations that already had a consumer-driven plan in place by January 2002 so as to provide a complete year's worth of experience with CDHC.
Principal Findings. The experience of the companies we visited indicated that favorable selection tends to result when a CDHC plan is introduced alongside traditional preferred provider organization (PPO) and health maintenance organization (HMO) plan offerings. Two sites demonstrated substantial cost-savings. Our case studies also indicate that the more mundane aspects of health care benefits are still crucial under CDHC. The size of the provider network accessible through the CDHC plan was critical, as was the role of premium contributions in the benefit design. Also, companies highlighted the importance of educating employees about new CDHC products: employees who understood the product were more likely to enroll.
Conclusions. Our site visits suggest the peril (risk selection) and the promise (cost savings) of CDHC. At this point there is still far more that we do not know about CDHC than we do know. Little is known about the extent to which CDHC changes people's behavior, the extent to which quality of care is affected by CDHC, and whether web-based information and tools actually make patients become better consumers.     

Managed Care and Gender Disparities in Problematic Health Care Experiences

Objective. To determine whether gender differences in reports of problematic health care experiences are associated with characteristics of managed care.
Data Sources. The 2002 Yale Consumer Experiences Survey ( N =5,000), a nationally representative sample of persons over 18 years of age with private health insurance, Interstudy Competitive Edge HMO Industry Report 2001, Area Resource File 2002, and the American Hospital Association Annual Survey of Hospitals 2002.
Study Design. Independent and interactive effects of gender and managed care on reports of problematic health care experiences were modeled using weighted multivariate logistic regression.
Principal Findings. Women were significantly more likely to report problems with their health care compared with men, even after controlling for gendered differences in expectations about medical care. Gender disparities in problem reporting were larger in plans that used certain managed care techniques, but smaller in plans using other methods. Some health plan managed care practices, including closed networks of providers and gatekeepers to specialty care, were associated with greater problem reporting among women, while others, such as requirements for primary care providers, were associated with greater problem reporting among men. Markets with higher HMO competition and penetration were associated with greater problem reporting among women, but reduced problem reporting among men. Women reported more problems in states that had enacted regulations governing access to OB/GYNs, while men reported more problems in states with regulations allowing specialists to act as primary care providers in health plans.
Conclusions. There are nontrivial gender disparities in reports of problematic health care experiences. The differential consequences of managed care at both the plan and market levels explain a portion of these gender disparities in problem reporting.     

Managed Care, School Health Programs, and Adolescent Health Services: Opportunities for Health Promotion

ABSTRACT: The rapid expansion of managed care creates opportunities and dilemmas for those involved in school health and adolescent health promotion. Managed care organizations (MCOs), public health agencies, and school and adolescent health providers share certain common goals and priorities including an emphasis on prevention, cost-effectiveness, and quality of care — and a willingness to explore innovative approaches to health promotion and disease prevention. However, MCOs often face conflicting challenges, balancing the goals of cost containment and investment in prevention. In considering support for school health programs, MCOs will be interested in evidence about the effectiveness of services in improving health and/or reducing medical expenditures. Mechanisms for improving prevention efforts within MCOs include quality assurance systems to monitor the performance of health plans, practice guidelines from professional organizations, and the contracting process between payers and health care providers. Development of partnerships between MCOs and schools will be a challenge given competing priorities, variation in managed care arrangements, structural differences between MCOs and schools, and variability in services provided by school health programs     

Employer Health Insurance Offerings and Employee Enrollment Decisions

Objective. To determine how the characteristics of the health benefits offered by employers affect worker insurance coverage decisions.
Data Sources. The 1996–1997 and the 1998–1999 rounds of the nationally representative Community Tracking Study Household Survey.
Study Design. We use multinomial logistic regression to analyze the choice between own-employer coverage, alternative source coverage, and no coverage among employees offered health insurance by their employer. The key explanatory variables are the types of health plans offered and the net premium offered. The models include controls for personal, health plan, and job characteristics.
Principal Findings. When an employer offers only a health maintenance organization married employees are more likely to decline coverage from their employer and take-up another offer (odds ratio (OR)=1.27, p <.001), while singles are more likely to accept the coverage offered by their employer and less likely to be uninsured (OR=0.650, p <.001). Higher net premiums increase the odds of declining the coverage offered by an employer and remaining uninsured for both married (OR=1.023, p <.01) and single (OR=1.035, p <.001) workers.
Conclusions. The type of health plan coverage an employer offers affects whether its employees take-up insurance, but has a smaller effect on overall coverage rates for workers and their families because of the availability of alternative sources of coverage. Relative to offering only a non-HMO plan, employers offering only an HMO may reduce take-up among those with alternative sources of coverage, but increase take-up among those who would otherwise go uninsured. By modeling the possibility of take-up through the health insurance offers from the employer of the spouse, the decline in coverage rates from higher net premiums is less than previous estimates.     

The Role of Product Design in Consumers' Choices in the Individual Insurance Market

Objective. To evaluate the role of health plan benefit design and price on consumers' decisions to purchase health insurance in the nongroup market and their choice of plan.
Data Sources and Study Setting. Administrative data from the three largest nongroup insurers in California and survey data about those insured in the nongroup market and the uninsured in California.
Study Design. We fit a nested logit model to examine the effects of plan characteristics on consumer choice while accounting for substitutability among certain groups of products.
Principal Findings. Product choice is quite sensitive to price. A 10 percent decrease in the price of a product would increase its market share by about 20 percent. However, a 10 percent decrease in prices of all products would only increase overall market participation by about 4 percent. Changes in the generosity of coverage will also affect product choice, but have only small effects on overall participation. A 20 percent decrease in the deductible or maximum out-of-pocket payment of all plans would increase participation by about 0.3–0.5 percent. Perceived information search costs and other nonprice barriers have substantial effects on purchase of nongroup coverage.
Conclusions. Modest subsidies will have small effects on purchase in the nongroup market. New product designs with higher deductibles are likely to be more attractive to healthy purchasers, but the new benefit designs are likely to have only small effects on market participation. In contrast, consumer education efforts have a role to play in helping to expand coverage.     

Hospitals' Negotiating Leverage with Health Plans: How and Why Has It Changed?

Objective.  To describe how hospitals' negotiating leverage with managed care plans changed from 1996 to 2001 and to identify factors that explain any changes.
Data Sources.  Primary semistructured interviews, and secondary qualitative (e.g., newspaper articles) and quantitative (i.e., InterStudy, American Hospital Association) data.
Study Design.  The Community Tracking Study site visits to a nationally representative sample of 12 communities with more than 200,000 people. These 12 markets have been studied since 1996 using a variety of primary and secondary data sources.
Data Collection Methods.  Semistructured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of individuals from hospitals, health plans, and knowledgeable market observers. Secondary quantitative data on the 12 markets was also obtained.
Principal Findings.  Our findings suggest that many hospitals' negotiating leverage significantly increased after years of decline. Today, many hospitals are viewed as having the greatest leverage in local markets. Changes in three areas—the policy and purchasing context, managed care plan market, and hospital market—appear to explain why hospitals' leverage increased, particularly over the last two years (2000–2001).
Conclusions.  Hospitals' increased negotiating leverage contributed to higher payment rates, which in turn are likely to increase managed care plan premiums. This trend raises challenging issues for policymakers, purchasers, plans, and consumers.     

Delayed Care and Unmet Needs among Health Care System Users: When Does Fiduciary Trust in a Physician Matter?

Objectives. To examine whether fiduciary trust in a physician is related to unmet health care needs and delayed care among patients who have a regular physician, and to investigate whether the relationships between trust and unmet health care needs and delays in care are attenuated for disadvantaged patients who face structural obstacles to obtaining health care.
Data Sources/Study Setting. The 1998–1999 Community Tracking Study (CTS) Household Survey, a cross-sectional sample representative of the U.S. noninstitutionalized population. This study analyzes adults who usually see the same physician for their health care ( n =29,994).
Study Design. We estimated logistic regression models of the association of trust with unmet health care needs and delayed care. We tested interactions between trust and barriers to obtaining care, including minority race/ethnicity, poverty, and the absence of health insurance. Control variables included patients' sociodemographic characteristics, health status, satisfaction with the available choice of primary physicians, and the number of physician visits during the last year.
Principal Findings. Patients' fiduciary trust in a physician is negatively associated with the likelihood of reporting delayed care and unmet health care needs among most patients. Among African Americans, Hispanics, the poor, and the uninsured, however, fiduciary trust is not significantly associated with the likelihood of delayed care. For unmet needs, only the uninsured have no significant association with trust.
Conclusions. Results show that trust is associated with improved chances of getting needed care across most subgroups of the population, although this relationship varies by subpopulation.     

Measuring Contextual Characteristics for Community Health

Objective. To conceptualize and measure community contextual influences on population health and health disparities.
Data Sources. We use traditional and nontraditional secondary sources of data comprising a comprehensive array of community characteristics.
Study Design. Using a consultative process, we identify 12 overarching dimensions of contextual characteristics that may affect community health, as well as specific subcomponents relating to each dimension.
Data Collection. An extensive geocoded library of data indicators relating to each dimension and subcomponent for metropolitan areas in the United States is assembled.
Principal Findings. We describe the development of community contextual health profiles, present the rationale supporting each of the profile dimensions, and provide examples of relevant data sources.
Conclusions. Our conceptual framework for community contextual characteristics, including a specified set of dimensions and components, can provide practical ways to monitor health-related aspects of the economic, social, and physical environments in which people live. We suggest several guiding principles useful for understanding how aspects of contextual characteristics can affect health and health disparities.