Correlation between procalcitonin and intra-abdominal pressure and their role in prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis

Background/aimsEarly assessment of disease severity and vigilant patient monitoring are key factors for adequate treatment of acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to determine the correlation of procalcitonin (PCT) serum concentrations and intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) as prognostic markers in early stages of AP.MethodsThis prospective observational study included 51 patients, of which 29 had severe AP (SAP). Patients were evaluated with the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, C-reactive protein (CRP) and PCT serum concentrations and IAP at 24 h from admission. PCT was measured three times in the 1st week of disease and three times afterward, while IAP was measured daily. PCT and IAP values correlated with each other, and also compared with APACHE II score and CRP values.ResultsPCT, IAP, CRP values and APACHE II score at 24 h after hospital admission were significantly elevated in patients with SAP. There was significant correlation between PCT and IAP values measured at 24 h of admission, and between maximal PCT and IAP values. Sensitivity/specificity for predicting AP severity at 24 h after admission was 89%/69% for APACHE II score, 75%/86% for CRP, 86%/63% for PCT and 75%/77% for IAP.ConclusionsIncreased IAP was accompanied by increased PCT serum concentration in patients with AP. PCT and IAP can both be used as early markers of AP severity.     

The clinical value of procalcitonin in early assessment of acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES: Early assessment of the severity and the etiology is crucial in the management of acute pancreatitis. To determine the value of procalcitonin (PCT) as a prognostic marker and as an indicator of biliary etiology in the early phase of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: In a prospective study, 75 consecutive patients were included (severe pancreatitis in 12 patients, biliary etiology in 42 cases). The value of PCT as a prognostic marker was compared to C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit (HCT), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, and Ranson score. The value of PCT as an indicator of biliary etiology was compared to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and alkaline phosphatase (AP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was applied as a measure of the overall accuracy of the single markers and multiple scoring systems. RESULTS: The most accurate prediction of severe disease was provided by the APACHE II score on the day of admission (AUC: APACHE II, 0.78; CRP, 0.73; HCT, 0.73; and PCT, 0.61), and by CRP after 48 h (AUC: CRP, 0.94; Ranson score, 0.81; PCT, 0.71; APACHE II score, 0.69; and HCT, 0.46). ALT was the most accurate indicator of biliary pancreatitis (AUC: ALT, 0.83; AP, 0.81; and PCT, 0.68). CONCLUSIONS: PCT is of limited additional value for early assessment of severity and etiology in acute pancreatitis. CRP is found to be a reliable prognostic marker with a delay of 48 h, while ALT is validated as the best indicator of biliary etiology.     

Intra-Abdominal Pressure in the Early Phase of Severe Acute Pancreatitis: Canary in a Coal Mine? Results from a Rigorous Validation Protocol

Background/Aims

Intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) is being increasingly reported in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) with worsened outcomes. The present study was undertaken to evaluate intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) as a marker of severity in the entire spectrum of acute pancreatitis and to ascertain the relationship between IAP and development of complications in patients with SAP.

Methods

IAP was measured via the transvesical route by measurements performed at admission, once after controlling pain and then every 4 hours. Data were collected on the length of the hospital stay, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), multiorgan failure, the extent of necrosis, the presence of infection, pleural effusion, and mortality.

Results

In total, 40 patients were enrolled and followed up for 30 days. The development of IAH was exclusively associated with SAP with an APACHE II score ≥8 and/or persistent SIRS, identifying all patients who were going to develop abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS). The presence of ACS was associated with a significantly increased extent of pancreatic necrosis, multiple organ failure, and mortality. The mean admission IAP value did not differ significantly from the value obtained after pain control or the maximum IAP measured in the first 5 days.

Conclusions

IAH is reliable marker of severe disease, and patients who manifest organ failure, persistent SIRS, or an Acute Physiology and Chronic health Evaluation II score ≥8 should be offered IAP surveillance. Severe pancreatitis is not a homogenous entity.     

Early recognition of abdominal compartment syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis

AIM： To assess the value of widely used clinical scores in the early identification of acute pancreatitis （AP） patients who are likely to suffer from intra-abdominal hypertension （IAH） and abdominal compartment syndrome （ACS）.
METHODS： Patients （η = 44） with AP recruited in this study were divided into two groups （ACS and non-ACS） according to intra-abdominal pressure （IAP） determined by indirect measurement using the transvesical route via Foley bladder catheter. On admission and at regular intervals, the severity of the AP and presence of organ dysfunction were assessed utilizing different multifactorial prognostic systems： Glasgow-Imrie score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ （APACHE-Ⅱ） score, and Multiorgan Dysfunction Score （MODS）. The diagnostic performance of scores predicting ACS development, cut-off values and specificity and sensitivity were established using receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve analysis.
RESULTS： The incidence of ACS in our study population was 19.35%. IAP at admission in the ACS group was 22.0 （18.5-25.0） mmHg and 9.25 （3.0-12.4） mmHg in the non-ACS group （P 〈 0.01）. Univariate statistical analysis revealed that patients in the ACS group had significantly higher multifactorial clinical scores （APACHE Ⅱ, Glasgow-Imrie and MODS） on admission and higher maximal scores during hospitalization （P 〈 0.01）. ROC curve analysis revealed that APACHE Ⅱ, Glasgow-Imrie, and MODS are valuable tools for early prediction of ACS with high sensitivity and specificity, and that cut-off values are similar to those used for stratification of patients with severe acute pancreatitis （SAP）.
CONCLUSION： IAH and ACS are rare findings in patients with mild AR Based on the results of our study we recommend measuring the IAP in cases when patients present with SAP （APACHE Ⅱ 〉 7; MODS 〉 2 or Glasgow-Imrie score 〉 3）.     

凝血功能异常在急性胰腺炎患者病情和预后评估中的意义

目的研究急性胰腺炎（AP）患者凝血功能的改变及其对病情严重程度和预后判断的意义。方法入院24小时内对313例AP患者进行APACHEm评分,同时抽取静脉血测定部分凝血活酶活化时间（APTT）、凝血酶原时间（PT）、凝血酶时间（TT）、D-二聚体（D—dimer）、纤维蛋白原（FIB）、抗凝血酶-III（AT-Ⅲ）以及血小板（PLT）水平。结果（1）APTF、PT、D—dimer与APACHEⅢ评分之间呈正相关（P〈0．05）;AT—III、PLT与APACHE III评分之间呈负相关（P〈0．05）。（2）多因素Logistic回归分析发现,PT、D—dimer对全身炎症反应综合征（SIRS）的发生及死亡预后具有独立预测意义,将PT、D—dimer引入APACHEm评分进行联合评分（PDA评分）。APACHE III评分与PDA评分进行预测价值比较,PDA评分对SIRS的预测灵敏度和特异度较APACHE III评分高,PDA评分对AP患者死亡预后的预测灵敏度和特异度较APACHE III评分高,差异均有显著性。结论AP患者凝血功能出现明显异常,凝血、抗凝、纤溶指标的紊乱程度与AP患者病情严重程度相关。将PT、D—dimer与APACHE III评分进行联合评分,可以提高AP患者病情早期评估及预后预测的准确性。     

The APACHE II score is unreliable to diagnose necrotizing pancreatitis on admission to hospital

INTRODUCTION: The APACHE II score is highly recommended worldwide for the assessment of severe pancreatitis (interstitial and necrotizing), and a score of at least eight points on admission to the hospital is said to indicate severe pancreatitis. AIM: To evaluate this assumption and to check whether an APACHE II score of at least eight points really indicates necrotizing pancreatitis as shown by contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT). METHODOLOGY: This study included 326 patients with a first attack of acute pancreatitis and is part of a prospective study on the natural course of acute pancreatitis. All patients underwent contrast-enhanced CT within 72 hours of admission. The following parameters for the severity of the disease were used: respiratory and renal failure according to the Atlanta classification; indication for dialysis, ventilation, and surgery; time spent in intensive care unit and total hospital stay; Ranson score adjusted for cause; Imrie score; and Balthazar score (CT). RESULTS: Of the 326 patients, 262 (80%) had interstitial pancreatitis and 64 (20%) had necrotizing pancreatitis. In 74 (28%) of the 262 patients with interstitial pancreatitis, the APACHE II score was at least eight points, indicating severe pancreatitis (overestimation of the disease), whereas the score was less than eight in 41 (64%) of 64 patients with necrotizing pancreatitis (underestimation). Sensitivity was 36%; specificity was 72%; the positive predictive value was 24%; and the negative predictive value was 82%. CONCLUSION: The evaluation of sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all APACHE II score points showed that there was not a "golden" cutoff to detect necrotizing pancreatitis. We conclude that the APACHE II score on admission to the hospital is unreliable to diagnose necrotizing pancreatitis.     

Machine learning can improve prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis using admission values of APACHE II score and C-reactive protein.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) has a variable course. Accurate early prediction of severity is essential to direct clinical care. Current assessment tools are inaccurate, and unable to adapt to new parameters. None of the current systems uses C-reactive protein (CRP). Modern machine-learning tools can address these issues. METHODS: 370 patients admitted with AP in a 5-year period were retrospectively assessed; after exclusions, 265 patients were studied. First recorded values for physical examination and blood tests, aetiology, severity and complications were recorded. A kernel logistic regression model was used to remove redundant features, and identify the relationships between relevant features and outcome. Bootstrapping was used to make the best use of data and obtain confidence estimates on the parameters of the model. RESULTS: A model containing 8 variables (age, CRP, respiratory rate, pO2 on air, arterial pH, serum creatinine, white cell count and GCS) predicted a severe attack with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.82 (SD 0.01). The optimum cut-off value for predicting severity gave sensitivity and specificity of 0.87 and 0.71 respectively. The predictions were significantly better (p = 0.0036) than admission APACHE II scores in the same patients (AUC 0.74) and better than historical admission APACHE II data (AUC 0.68-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: This system for the first time combines admission values of selected components of APACHE II and CRP for prediction of severe AP. The score is simple to use, and is more accurate than admission APACHE II alone. It is adaptable and would allow incorporation of new predictive factors.     

新CT评分系统预测急性胰腺炎病情严重程度的临床研究

目的 在综合急性胰腺炎(AP)患者胰腺外炎症征象及胰腺坏死程度基础上,建立一种新CT评分系统--胰腺外炎症和胰腺坏死CT指数(EPIPN)评分系统.以初步探讨其预测AP病情严重程度和预后的诊断价值.方法 回顾分析2006年8月至2007年12月住院确诊的77例AP患者的临床资料,包括年龄、性别、病因、起病72 h C反应蛋白(CRP)水平、Ranson评分、人院48 h时APACHEⅡ评分,器官衰竭发生情况、腹痛消失时间、住院时间等.所有患者人院后2～3 d行增强CT检查,获得CT严重指数(CTSI)评分和EPIPN评分,CTSI≥7分为重症AP(SAP),EPIPN>5分为SAP.应用ROC曲线比较EPIPN和CTSI预测AP病情严重程度的诊断效力,初步分析EPlPN和CTSI与AP临床预后指标的相关性.结果 77例患者中男34例,女43例,平均年龄51.79岁(22～92岁).胆源性63例,高血脂6例,酒精性1例,原因不明7例.14例(18.2%)患者曾发生器官衰竭.EPIPN和CTSI预测SAP的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.82(95%可信区间0.73～0.91)、0.72(95%可信区间0.59～0.86),CTSI≥7预测SAP的灵敏度、特异度分别为80.4%和55%,EPIPN>5预测SAP的灵敏度、特异度分别为91.3%和63%.EPIPN与AP患者住院时间、APACHEⅡ评分、CRP有良好的相关性.结论 EPIPN可准确预测和评估AP病情严重程度和预后,其诊断效力优于CTSI.EPIPN简便实用,具有良好的临床应用价值.     

Leptin Is Associated With Persistence of Hyperglycemia in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Clinical Study

Adipokines have many homeostatic roles, including modulation of glucose metabolism, but their role in the pathophysiology of hyperglycemia associated with acute and critical illnesses in general, and acute pancreatitis (AP) in particular, is largely unknown. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between a panel of adipokines and hyperglycemia in the early course of AP, as well as the role of adipokines as predictors of AP severity.Adiponectin, leptin, omentin, resistin, and visfatin were measured on a daily basis in the first 72 hours after hospital admission. A first set of analyses was undertaken with admission glycemia stratified by severity, and a second set of analyses was undertaken based on persistence of early hyperglycemia. All of the analyses were adjusted for confounders.A total of 32 patients with AP were included in this study. None of the studied adipokines was significantly associated with glucose level on admission. Leptin was significantly (P = 0.003) increased in patients with persistent hyperglycemia. Adiponectin was significantly associated with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in patients with persistent hyperglycemia (P = 0.015), visfatin with APACHE II score in patients with persistent hyperglycemia (P = 0.014), and omentin with APACHE II score in all of the patients regardless of the presence or absence of hyperglycemia (P = 0.021).Leptin is significantly associated with persistent hyperglycemia in the early course of AP. Omentin has a potential to become an accurate predictor of AP severity.     

Prior statin therapy is associated with milder course and better outcome in acute pancreatitis – A cohort study

BackgroundStatin treatment was shown to be associated with improved outcomes in several inflammatory conditions. We wanted to evaluate the effects of statin therapy on the course and outcome of acute pancreatitis (AP).MethodsA prospective cohort study included patients with acute pancreatitis divided into two groups according to statin use prior to hospitalization. Age, sex, etiology of AP, Ranson's score, APACHE II score and maximal CRP were recorded. Outcome measures were hospital length of stay and mortality. Matching of patients for matched analyses was done using individual matching and propensity score matching using variables a priori associated with course and outcome of acute pancreatitis.ResultsInclusion criteria were met for 1062 patients of whom 92 were taking statins. Statin users were older and had higher body mass indexes. Severe disease was more common in the no-statin group than in statin group (20.6% vs. 8.7% respectively). All severity markers were also higher in the no-statin group. All cause mortality was not different, while cardiovascular mortality was higher in the statin group in the cohort analysis. After matching by either method, the severity of disease was greater for the patients without statins treatment. Pancreatitis related mortality was higher in the no-statin group after matching. Among patients who developed severe AP, statin users showed lower Ranson's and APACHE II scores and lower maximal CRP.ConclusionsPrior statin treatment significantly reduces morbidity and mortality in acute pancreatitis. Further studies are needed to evaluate possible therapeutic use of statins in acute pancreatitis.     

Predictors of Vascular and Gastrointestinal Complications in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Aim: To determine prognostic factors for arterial injury and gastrointestinal perforation in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: A prospective cohort study was performed in 39 patients with AP whose Ranson scores were ≥3. The following parameters were assessed: Ranson score, APACHE II score, C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration on admission and on day 7, and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) scans on admission (first CT) and between days 6 and 8 (second CT). The Balthazar CT severity index was calculated. Results: Six patients developed seven vascular and/or gastrointestinal complications (duodenal perforations in 3 and arterial pseudoaneurysm in 4). CRP on day 7 and the CT severity indices at the second CT were significantly higher in the complication group than in the noncomplication group. A stepwise logistic regression analysis demonstrated that CRP ≥15 mg/dl on day 7 and CT severity index ≥7 at the second CT were independent risk factors (p = 0.02 and 0.04, respectively). The odds ratio for CRP ≥15 mg/dl was 23.0 and 15.7 for a CT severity index of ≥7. Conclusion: A persistent elevation of the CRP concentration and a high CT severity index are independent riskfactors for local complications associated with AP. Copyright © 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel and IAP     

Evaluation of diagnostic findings and scoring systems in outcome prediction in acute pancreatitis

AIM: To determine factors related to disease severity, mortality and morbidity in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: One hundred and ninety-nine consecutive patients were admitted with the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) in a 5-year period (1998-2002). In a prospective design, demographic data, etiology, mean hospital admission time, clinical, radiological, biochemical findings, treatment modalities, mortality and morbidity were recorded. Endocrine insuffi ciency was investigated with oral glucose tolerance test. The relations between these parameters, scoring systems (Ranson, Imrie and APACHE Ⅱ) and patients' outcome were determined by using invariable tests and the receiver operating characteristics curve. RESULTS: One hundred patients were men and 99 were women; the mean age was 55 years. Biliary pancreatitis was the most common form, followed by idiopathic pancreatitis (53/ and 26/, respectively). Sixty-three patients had severe pancreatitis and 136 had mild disease. Respiratory rate > 20/min, pulse rate > 90/min, increased C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, organ necrosis > 30/ on computed tomography (CT) and leukocytosis were associated with severe disease. The rate of glucose intolerance, morbidity and mortality were 24.1/, 24.8/ and 13.6/, respectively. CRP > 142 mg/L, BUN > 22 mg/dL, LDH > 667 U/L, base excess > -5, CT severity index > 3 and APACHE score > 8 were related to morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: APACHE Ⅱ score, LDH, base excess and CT severity index have prognostic value and CRP is a reliable marker for predicting both mortality and morbidity.     

Comparison of early enteral nutrition in severe acute pancreatitis with prebiotic fiber supplementation versus standard enteral solution： A prospective randomized double-blind study

AIM: To compare the benefi cial effects of early enteral nutrition (EN) with prebiotic fiber supplementation in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (AP).METHODS: Thirty consecutive patients with severe AP, who required stoppage of oral feeding for 48 h, were randomly assigned to nasojejunal EN with or without prebiotics. APACHE Ⅱ score, Balthazar’s CT score and CRP were assessed daily during the study period.RESULTS: The median duration of hospital stay was shorter in the study group [10 ± 4 (8-14) d vs 15 ± 6 (7-26) d] (P < 0.05). The median value of days in intensive care unit was also similar in both groups [6 ± 2 (5-8) d vs 6 ± 2 (5-7) d]. The median duration of EN was 8 ± 4 (6-12) d vs 10 ± 4 (6-13) d in the study and control groups, respectively (P > 0.05). Deaths occurred in 6 patients (20%), 2 in the study group and 4 in the control group. The mean duration of APACHE Ⅱ normalization (APACHE Ⅱ score < 8) was shorter in the study group than in the control group (4 ± 2 d vs 6.5 ± 3 d, P < 0.05). The mean duration of CRP normalization was also shorter in the study group than in the control group (7 ± 2 d vs 10 ± 3 d, P < 0.05).CONCLUSION: Nasojejunal EN with prebiotic fiber supplementation in severe AP improves hospital stay, duration nutrition therapy, acute phase response and overall complications compared to standard EN therapy.     

急性胰腺炎多层螺旋CT灌注参数与临床病情评估系统的关系研究

目的 探讨急性胰腺炎(AP)患者胰腺CT灌注的变化以及与临床常用AP病情评估系统的关系,评价CT灌注参数的临床应用价值.方法 2006年8月至2008年4月行胰腺CT灌注成像120例,其中正常胰腺34例,AP患者86例.采用德国Siemens somatom Sensation 64层螺旋CT进行灌注扫描,获取灌注参数血流量(BF)、血容量(BV)、峰值时间(TTP)和表面通透性(PS),并与APACHEⅡ评分、Ranson评分、CRP、CTSI、腹痛缓解时间、住院天数、局部并发症发生率进行相关性分析.结果 AP组平均BF、BV、TTP、PS分别为(113.57±50.04)ml·100 ml~(-1)·min~(-1)、(146.61±45.11)ml/L、(148.88±21.16)0.1 s、(119.53±52.36)0.5 ml·100 ml~(-1)·min~(-1),与正常对照组相比,BF、BV明显下降(P<0.05),TTP、PS变化无统计学意义.AP患者的CT灌注参数BF、BV与APACHEⅡ评分、Ransont评分、CRP、CTSI存在相关性(P<0.05),与腹痛缓解时间、住院天数、局部并发症发生率也存在相关性(P<0.05).结论 AP患者胰腺血流灌注降低,灌注参数BV、BF与临床常用AP病情评估系统存在相关关系,提示CT灌注成像在AP病情评估中具有良好的临床应用前景.     

Correlation between serum levels of PTX-3, SIL-2R,inflammatory markers,and APACHE II scores in patients with severe acute pancreatitis

To investigate the correlation of serum pentraxin 3 (PTX-3), soluble interleukin-2 receptor (SIL-2R), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) levels, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). A total of 30 patients with SAP from October 2020 to October 2021 were selected as the SAP group, and 42 patients with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) or moderate-severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) was selected as the control group. The serum levels of PTX-3, SIL-2R, CRP, PCT, and APACHE II scores were evaluated. The serum levels of PTX-3, SIL-2R, CRP, PCT, and APACHE II scores at admission in the SAP group were significantly higher than those in the control group (all P < .05). Spearman analysis showed that serum PTX-3, SIL-2R, CRP, and PCT levels were positively correlated with APACHE II scores (all P < .05). The mortality rate within 28 days was 26.7% in the SAP group; moreover, the serum PTX-3, SIL-2R, CRP, and PCT levels and APACHE II scores at admission in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group (all P < .05). The receiver operating curve showed that the combined prediction value of all indicators (PTX-3 + SIL-2R + CRP + PCT + APACHE II) was superior to the single indicators, and the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 90.9% and 84.2%, respectively. Serum PTX-3, SIL-2R, CRP, and PCT levels and APACHE II scores have high guiding significance in early diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of SAP patients.     

A rapid quantitative D-dimer assay at admission correlates with the severity of community acquired pneumonia.

Previous research has shown a link between infectious inflammatory processes and hemostatic abnormalities. No data exist, however, on whether coagulation markers correlate with the severity of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at admission. We conducted a prospective, observational study in an Emergency Medicine Department of a primary care hospital. Sixty-eight patients admitted with CAP were included. Blood samples were collected at admission and assayed for D-dimer levels. D-dimers were correlated with the Pneumonia Patient Outcome Research Team (PORT) score and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score on admission, with length of hospital stay, number of organ failures, time to defervescence and hospital mortality. D-dimer levels were positively correlated with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (r = 0.44, P = 0.0002), the PORT score (r = 0.36, P = 0.002) and the length of hospital stay (r = 0.24, P = 0.046). Mean D-dimer levels of patients for whom hospitalization is recommended, according to PORT guidelines, were significantly higher than D-dimer levels of patients for whom hospitalization is not recommended (1.47 +/- 1.05 microg/ml and 0.71 +/- 0.79 microg/ml respectively; P = 0.006). The correlation between D-dimer levels and time to defervescence, development of organ system failure and outcome was not statistically significant. We conclude that D-dimer levels at admission may predict the severity of CAP.     

Comparison of scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

AIM:To investigate the prognostic usefulness of several existing scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis(AP).METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected clinical database from consecutive patients with AP in our institution between January 2011 and December 2012.Ranson,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)-Ⅱ,and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP)scores,and computed tomography severity index(CTSI)of all patients were calculated.Serum C-reactive protein(CRP)levels were measured at admission(CRPi)and after 24h(CRP24).Severe AP was defined as persistent organ failure for more than 48 h.The predictive accuracy of each scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver-operating curve(AUC).RESULTS:Of 161 patients,21(13%)were classified as severe AP,and 3(1.9%)died.Statistically significant cutoff values for prediction of severe AP were Ranson≥3,BISAP≥2,APACHE-Ⅱ≥8,CTSI≥3,and CRP24≥21.4.AUCs for Ranson,BISAP,APACHE-Ⅱ,CTSI,and CRP24 in predicting severe AP were 0.69(95%CI:0.62-0.76),0.74(95%CI:0.66-0.80),0.78(95%CI:0.70-0.84),0.69(95%CI:0.61-0.76),and0.68(95%CI:0.57-0.78),respectively.APACHE-Ⅱdemonstrated the highest accuracy for prediction of severe AP,however,no statistically significant pairwise differences were observed between APACHE-Ⅱand the other scoring systems,including CRP24.CONCLUSION:Various scoring systems showed similar predictive accuracy for severity of AP.Unique models are needed in order to achieve further improvement of prognostic accuracy.     

Early onset of organ failure is the best predictor of mortality in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: APACHE II is a multifactorial scoring system for predicting severity in acute pancreatitis (AP). Organ failure (OF) has been correlated with mortality in AP. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the usefulness of APACHE II as an early predictor of severity in AP, its correlation with OF, and the relevance of an early establishment of OF during the course of AP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From January 1999 to November 2001, 447 consecutive cases of AP were studied. APACHE II scores and Atlanta criteria were used for defining severity and OF. RESULTS: Twenty-five percent of patients had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). APACHE II at 24 h after admission showed a sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of 52, 77, 46, and 84%, respectively, for predicting severity. Mortality for SAP was 20.5%. Seventy percent of patients who developed OF did so within the first 24 hours of admission, and their mortality was 52%. Mortality was statistically significant (p< 0.01) if OF was established within the first 24 hours after admission. CONCLUSIONS: APACHE II is not reliable for predicting outcome within the first 24 hours after admission and should therefore be used together with other methods. OF mostly develops within the first days after admission, if ever. The time of onset of OF is the most accurate and reliable method for predicting death risk in AP.     

Early Prediction of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis Using Infrared Spectroscopy of Serum

Background: One of the main problems in the management of acute pancreatitis (AP) is the scarcity of accurate predictors of disease severity. Methods: In a prospective design, we compared APACHE II score, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, and infrared (IR) spectral absorption of serum (wavelength 940 nm) in 167 consecutive patients with AP, 34 with predicted severe and 133 with mild form. Results: The IR spectral absorption levels on admission and at 24 h after admission were significantly (p< 0.05) lower in patients with severe AP. On admission, the sensitivity was 74, 56, and 44%; the specificity was 82, 83, and 81%; the positive predictive value was 51, 45, and 37%, and the negative predictive value was 92, 88, and 85%, for IR spectroscopy, APACHE II, and CRP, respectively. At 24 h, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value was 82, 74, 44, and 94%; 65, 72, 37, and 89%; 68, 73, 39, and 90%, for IR spectroscopy, CRP, and APACHE II, respectively. Conclusions: IR spectroscopy seems to be useful for early detection of severe AP and, in turn, for identifying patients requiring treatment in the intensive care unit and who can benefit from novel therapies.     

BISAP联合凝血指标对急性胰腺炎严重程度评估的意义

目的:研究BISAP(bedside index for severity in AP)评分联合凝血指标对急性胰腺炎(acute pancreatitis,AP)严重程度评估的意义.方法:回顾2008-2012年中国医科大学附属盛京医院收治的166例AP患者的临床资料.对所有患者进行入院24h的BISAP、APACHE-Ⅱ评分,48h的Ranson’s及发病72h内CTSI评分,入院24h内抽取静脉血测定部分凝血活酶活化时间、凝血酶原时间、D-二聚体(D-dimer)、纤维蛋白原及血小板水平.分析凝血指标及BISAP评分对AP严重程度判断的意义,并通过ROC曲线分析二者联合对AP严重程度评估的意义.结果:多因素Logistic回归分析发现,D-dimer对AP严重程度评估具有独立预测意义;随着BISAP评分增加,SAP的比率增加;BISAP评分系统评估AP严重程度以2为临界点时Youden指数最大(0.541),ROC曲线下面积为0.836(0.776-0.896),并不逊于传统评分系统;BISAP评分系统联合D-dimer能更好地评估AP患者的严重程度.结论:BISAP是临床判断AP轻重程度的简单有效的指标,将BISAP与D-dimer联合应用使得对AP严重程度的评估更为准确.