Trends in Post-Acute Care in US Nursing Homes: 2001-2017

ObjectiveTo describe recent trends in post-acute care provision within nursing homes, focusing specifically on nursing homes’ degree of specialization in post-acute care.DesignRetrospective cohort study.Setting and ParticipantsAll US nursing homes between 2001 and 2017 and all fee-for-service Medicare admissions to nursing homes for post-acute care during that time.MethodsWe measured post-acute care specialization as annual Medicare admissions per bed for each nursing home and examined changes in the distribution of specialization across nursing homes over the study period. We described the characteristics of nursing homes and the patients they serve based on degree of specialization.ResultsThe average number of Medicare admissions per bed increased from 1.2 in 2001 to 1.6 in 2017, a relative increase of 41%. This upward trend in the number of Medicare admissions per bed was largest among new nursing homes (those established after 2001), increasing 68% from 2001 to 2017. In contrast, nursing homes that eventually closed during the study period experienced no meaningful growth in the number of admissions per bed. Over time, the number of Medicare admissions per bed increased among highly specialized nursing homes. The number of Medicare admissions per bed grew by 66% at the 95th percentile and by 25% at the 99th percentile. Nursing homes delivering the most post-acute care were more likely to be for-profit or part of a chain, had higher staffing levels, and were less likely to admit patients who were Black, Hispanic, or dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid.Conclusions and ImplicationsOver the last 2 decades, post-acute care has become increasingly concentrated in a subset of nursing homes, which tend to be for-profit, part of a chain, and less likely to serve racial and ethnic minorities and persons on Medicaid. Although these nursing homes may benefit financially from higher Medicare payment, it may come at the expense of equitable access and patient care.     

National Early Warning Scores Following Emergency Hospital Transfer: Implications for Care Home Residents

ObjectiveCare home residents have high rates of hospital admission. The UK National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) standardizes the secondary care response to acute illness. However, the ability of NEWS2 to predict adverse health outcomes specifically for care home residents is unknown. This study explored the relationship between NEWS2 on admission to hospital and resident outcome 7 days later.DesignRepeated cross-sectional study.Setting and ParticipantsData on UK care home residents admitted to 160 hospitals in two 24-hour periods (2019 and 2020).MethodChi-squared and Kruskal-Wallis tests, and multinomial regression were used to explore the association between low (score ≤2), intermediate (3–4), high (5–6), and critically high (≥7) NEWS2 on admission and each of the following: discharge on day of admission, admission and discharge within 7 days, prolonged hospital admission (>7 days), and death.ResultsFrom 665 resident admissions across 160 hospital sites, NEWS2 was low for 54%, intermediate for 18%, high for 13%, and critically high for 16%. The 7-day outcome was 10% same-day discharge, 47% admitted and subsequently discharged, 34% remained inpatients, and 8% died. There is a significant association between NEWS2 and these outcomes (P < .001). Compared with those with low NEWS2, residents with high and critically high NEWS2 had 3.6 and 9.5 times increased risk of prolonged hospitalization [relative risk ratio (RRR) 3.56; 95% CI 1.02–12.37; RRR 9.47; CI 2.20–40.67], respectively. The risk of death was approximately 14 times higher for residents with high NEWS2 (RRR 13.62; CI 3.17–58.49) and 54 times higher (RRR 53.50; CI 11.03–259.54) for critically high NEWS2.Conclusion and ImplicationsHigher NEWS2 measurements on admission are associated with an increased risk of hospitalization up to 7 days duration, prolonged admission, and mortality for care home residents. NEWS2 may have a role as an adjunct to acute care decision making for hospitalized residents.     

The Association of Long-Term Opioid Use With Health Care and Home Care Service Use Among Aged Home Care Clients

ObjectivesTo compare health care and home care service utilization, mortality, and long-term care admissions between long-term opioid users and nonusers among aged home care clients.DesignA retrospective cohort study based on the Resident Assessment Instrument–Home Care (RAI-HC) assessments and electronic medical records.Setting and ParticipantsThe study sample included all regular home care clients aged ≥65 years (n = 2475), of whom 220 were long-term opioid users, in one city in Finland (population base 222,000 inhabitants).MethodsHealth care utilization, mortality, and long-term care admissions over a 1-year follow-up were recorded from electronic medical records, and home care service use from the RAI-HC. Negative binomial and multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for several socioeconomic and health characteristics, were used to analyze the associations between opioid use and health and home care service use.ResultsCompared with nonusers, long-term opioid users had more outpatient consultations (incidence rate ratio 1.26; 95% CI 1.08−1.48), home visits (1.23; 1.01−1.49), phone contacts (1.38; 1.13−1.68), and consultations without a patient attending a practice (1.22; 1.04−1.43) after adjustments. A greater proportion of long-term opioid users than nonusers had at least 1 hospitalization (49% vs 41%) but the number of inpatient days did not differ after adjustments. The home care nurses’ median work hours per week were 4.3 (Q₁-Q₃ 1.5−7.7) among opioid users and 2.8 (1.0−6.1) among nonusers. Mortality and long-term care admissions were not associated with opioid use.Conclusions and ImplicationsLong-term opioid use in home care clients is associated with increased health care utilization regardless of the severity of pain and other sociodemographic and health characteristics. This may indicate the inability of health care organizations to produce alternative treatment strategies for pain management when opioids do not meet patients’ needs. The exact reasons for opioid users’ greater health care utilization should be examined in future.     

Reduced Waiting Times by Preference-Based Allocation of Patients to Nursing Homes

ObjectivesThe long waiting times for nursing homes can be reduced by applying advanced waiting-line management. In this article, we implement a preference-based allocation model for older adults to nursing homes, evaluate the performance in a simulation setting for 2 case studies, and discuss the implementation in practice.DesignSimulation study.Setting and ParticipantsOlder adults requiring somatic nursing home care, from an urban region (Rotterdam) and a rural region (Twente) in the Netherlands.MethodsData about nursing homes and capacities for the 2 case studies were identified. A set of preference profiles was defined with aims regarding waiting time preferences and flexibility. Guidelines for implementation of the model in practice were obtained by addressing the tasks of all stakeholders. Thereafter, the simulation was run to compare the current practice with the allocation model based on specified outcome measures about waiting times and preferences.ResultsWe found that the allocation model decreased the waiting times in both case studies. Compared with the current practice policy, the allocation model reduced the waiting times until placement by at least a factor of 2 (from 166 to 80 days in Rotterdam and 178 to 82 days in Twente). Moreover, more of the older adults ended up in their preferred nursing home and the aims of the distinct preference profiles were satisfied.Conclusions and ImplicationsThe results show that the allocation model outperforms commonly used waiting-line policies for nursing homes, while meeting individual preferences to a larger extent. Moreover, the model is easy to implement and of a generic nature and can, therefore, be extended to other settings as well (eg, to allocate older adults to home care or daycare). Finally, this research shows the potential of mathematical models in the care domain for older adults to face the increasing need for cost-effective solutions.     

Home First! Identification of Hospitalized Patients for Home-Based Models of Care

ObjectivesTo determine the proportion of hospitalized inpatients suitable for an acute and subacute home-based inpatient bed substitutive service, to examine the ability of treating teams to identify suitable patients for this service, and to examine potential barriers toward inpatients receiving home-based care.DesignProspective point prevalence study over 2 days in April 2019; analysis of responses to survey questionnaires regarding the suitability for home-based care among inpatients with multiday admissions to acute and subacute wards in the Royal Melbourne Hospital (RMH), an Australian metropolitan tertiary referral center.Setting and ParticipantsWard treating teams, clinicians affiliated with the home-based service called RMH@Home, and inpatients who were subsequently identified as being suitable for home-based care.MeasurementsPoint prevalence and characteristics of inpatients suitable for a home-based bed substitutive service; identified by either treating teams or RMH@Home clinicians; and barriers to the provision of home-based care among ward inpatients.ResultsSurvey responses were received for 620 of 635 inpatients [median age 69 years (interquartile range 53–81), 53% male], of which 69 (11.1%) were identified as being suitable for home-based inpatient bed substitution care. Treating team clinicians identified 26 patients, clinicians affiliated with RMH@Home identified a further 43 suitable patients. The most commonly reported barrier (38.1%) toward receiving home-based care was functional disability impeding ability to live at home.Conclusions and ImplicationsA substantial proportion of hospitalized older patients could use home-based inpatient bed substitutive services. Clinicians experienced in home-based care are more skilled than ward-based clinicians in identifying suitable patients for this care model.     

Cada semana cuenta: uso de dispositivos sanitarios y costes relacionados de una cohorte comunitaria de personas con enfermedades crónicas avanzadas

ObjectiveTo describe the use of health resources of people with advanced chronicity, quantifying and characterizing its cost to suggest improvements in health care models.DesignObservational, analytical and prospective study during 3 years of a cohort of people with advanced chronicity.LocationThree primary care teams (EAP) of Osona, Cataluña.Participants224 people identified as advanced patients through a systematic population strategy.Main measurementsAge, sex, type of home, end-of-life trajectory; use, type and cost of resources in primary care, emergencies, palliative teams or hospitalization (in acute or intermediate care).ResultsPatients made an average of 1.1 admissions per year (average stay = 6 days), 74% in intermediate care hospitals. They lived in the community 93.4% of time, carrying out 1 weekly contact with the EAP (45.1% home care). The average daily cost was 19.4 euros, the main chapters were intermediate care hospitalizations (36.5%), EAP activity (29.4%) and admissions in acute hospitals (28.6%). Factors determining a potential lower cost are frailty/dementia as trajectory (p < 0.001), living in a nursing-home facility (p < 0.001) and over-aging (p < 0.001). There are certain differences in the behavior of the EAP related to the global cost and to community resources (p < 0.05).ConclusionsConsumption in intermediate hospitalization and primary care is more relevant than stays in acute care centers. Nursing-homes and home-care strategies are important to attend effectively and efficiently, especially when primary care teams get ready for it.     

Challenge to Long Term Care for the Elderly: Cold Weather Impacts Institutional Population More than Community-Dwelling Population

ObjectivesTo examine whether cold weather affects the institutional population more than the community-dwelling population in terms of morbidity requiring hospital admission.MethodsResidence-based hospital discharge data were used to compile excess winter hospitalization (EWH) index for the older population (aged 65 years and above) living in institutions (residential care home for the elderly [RCHE] population) and the community-dwelling elderly population in Hong Kong. To separate the influence of influenza on the cold-related hospital admissions, episodes because of influenza were excluded from this study.ResultsIn 2009, the EWH index for the RCHE population was 22.93% (95% CI: 20.80%–25.09%), which was much higher than that for the community-dwelling population (14.09%, 95% CI: 13.11%–15.08%). The EWH index was higher among RCHE population compared with community-dwelling population across different age groups and sex (paired t-test one-tailed P = .014).ConclusionThe institutional elderly population was more vulnerable to the risk of excess hospitalization in winter. There may be room for improvement in the living environment of institutions, in particular the ambient temperature and personal care, to reduce hospital admissions. Given the expanding institutional population, the limited hospital beds, and long waiting queue for accident and emergency services, prevention of cold-related hospitalization would help to reduce the medical care burden.     

Reducing Avoidable Facility Transfers (RAFT): Outcomes of a Team Model to Minimize Unwarranted Emergency Care at Skilled Nursing Facilities

BackgroundAcute health care interventions for residents of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) are often unwarranted, unwanted, and/or harmful. We describe a provider-focused care model to reduce unwarranted or unwanted acute health care utilization.ObjectiveAssess the capability of the Reducing Avoidable Facility Transfers (RAFT) model to reduce unwanted and unwarranted acute health care utilization among residents in 3 rural SNFs between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017.DesignProspective cohort, pre/post study.SettingThree rural SNFs in collaboration with a geriatric practice in a tertiary academic medical center.ParticipantsPost-acute care (PAC) and long-term care (LTC) residents of 3 rural SNFs.InterventionRAFT includes the following components: (1) a small team of providers who manage longitudinal care and after hours call; (2) elicitation of advance care plans and preferences regarding acute care; (3) standardized communication process engaging the provider at the identification of an acute care event; (4) a biweekly case review of all emergency department (ED) transfers.MeasuresED and hospital utilization.ResultsRAFT demonstrated a 35% reduction in monthly ED transfers and a 30.5% reduction in monthly hospitalizations. These reductions were greatest for LTC residents.Conclusions/ImplicationsThe RAFT approach substantially reduced unwarranted ED and hospital utilization in this study. Results support replication and evaluation in a larger, more diverse setting and population.     

One-Year Medical Utilization and Mortality in Home Health and Nursing Home Care Recipients from Northern Taiwan

ObjectivesHome health care (HHC) and nursing home care (NHC) are mainstays of long-term service in the aged population. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the factors associated with 1-year medical utilization and mortality in HHC and NHC recipients in Northern Taiwan.DesignThis study employed a prospective cohort design.Setting and ParticipantsWe enrolled 815 HHC and NHC participants who started receiving medical care services from the National Taiwan University Hospital, Beihu Branch between January 2015 and December 2017.MethodsMultivariate Poisson regression modeling was used to quantify the relationship between care model (HHC vs NHC) and medical utilization. Cox proportional-hazards modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios and factors associated with mortality.ResultsCompared with NHC recipients, HHC recipients had higher 1-year utilization of emergency department services [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.04, 95% CI 1.16-3.59] and hospital admissions (IRR 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.93), as well as longer total hospital length of stay (LOS) (IRR 1.61, 95% CI 1.52-1.71) and LOS per hospital admission (IRR 1.31, 95% CI 1.22-1.41). Living at home or in a nursing home did not affect the 1-year mortality.Conclusions and ImplicationsCompared with NHC recipients, HHC recipients had a higher number of emergency department services and hospital admissions, as well as longer hospital LOS. Policies should be developed to reduce emergency department and hospitalization utilization in HHC recipients.     

Evaluating Complex Health and Social Care Program Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: A Case Study of “Better Together in Amsterdam North”

ObjectivesMulti-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been recommended to support policy making in healthcare. However, practical applications of MCDA are sparse. One potential use for MCDA is for the evaluation of programs for complex and vulnerable patients. These complex patients benefit from integrated care programs that span healthcare and social care and aim to improve more than just health outcomes. MCDA can evaluate programs that aim to improve broader outcomes because it allows the evaluation of multiple outcomes alongside each other. In this study, we evaluate an innovative integrated care program in the Netherlands using MCDA.MethodsWe used an innovative MCDA framework with broad outcomes of health, well-being, and cost to evaluate the Better Together in Amsterdam North (BSiN) program using preferences of patients, partners, providers, payers, and policy makers in the Netherlands. BSiN provides case management support for a period of 6 months. Seven outcomes that previous research has deemed important to complex patients were measured, including physical functioning and social relationships and participation.ResultsWe find that the program improved the overall MCDA score marginally, and, thus, after 6 and after 12 months, BSiN was preferred to usual care by all stakeholders. BSiN was preferred to usual care, mostly owing to improvements in psychological well-being and social relationships and participation.ConclusionsThe integrated healthcare and social care program BSiN in the Netherlands was preferred to usual care according to an MCDA evaluation. MCDA seems a useful method to evaluate complex programs with benefits beyond health.     

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Health Care Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

BackgroundPrior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe.ObjectiveOur goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions.MethodsWe developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground.ResultsForecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs.ConclusionsReal-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.     

Web-Based Delirium Prevention Application for Long-Term Care Facilities

ObjectiveA web-based application was developed for medical staff to easily access and use a comprehensive delirium prevention management program—comprising risk prediction, assessment, and intervention—even in long-term care facilities with insufficient systems.DesignA randomized control trial.Setting and ParticipantsA long-term care facility with 250 beds in Korea. Participants were 130 facility residents aged 18 or older who understood the purpose of this study and for whom a legal representative provided participation consent. Participants were randomly assigned to the intervention and control groups (n = 65 per group).MethodsThe participants’ risk of delirium episodes was predicted using the web-based application Web_DeliPREVENT_4LCF. Delirium was assessed using the built-in Short Confusion Assessment Method (S-CAM). Among the intervention group, nonpharmacological, multicomponent delirium prevention interventions guided by the application were applied to participants who were predicted to be at risk for delirium or tested positive for delirium. The intervention was provided for 30 days.ResultsThe intervention group had a 0.30 times lower incidence of delirium [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.12–0.79; P = .015] and 0.08 times lower 1-month hospitalization mortality (95% CI 0.01–0.79; P = .031) than the control group. There were no differences between the 2 groups in delirium severity, mortality, and 3-month hospitalization mortality, long-term care facility discharge, and length of stay.Conclusions and ImplicationsThe Web_DeliPREVENT_4LCF was effective in reducing delirium episodes and 1-month in-hospital mortality. Therefore, even in Korean long-term care facilities, which lack manpower and electronic medical record systems compared with general hospitals, the health care professional can easily access and use the app for early detection and preventive intervention for residents’ delirium.RegistrationKCT0005804.     

Introducing Goals of Patient Care in Residential Aged Care Facilities to Decrease Hospitalization: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

ObjectivesThe “Goals of Patient Care” (GOPC) process uses shared decision making to incorporate residents' prior advance care planning (ACP) or preferences into medical treatment orders, guiding health care decisions at a time of clinical deterioration should they be unable to voice their opinions. The objective was to determine whether GOPC medical treatment orders were more effective than ACP alone in preventing emergency department (ED) visits (no hospitalization), ED visits (with hospitalization), and deaths outside the residential aged care facility (RACF).DesignThe study was a prospective cluster randomized controlled trial, with the intervention being the completion of GOPC process by a geriatrician, following a shared decision-making process, incorporating ACP documents or residents' preferences.Setting and participantsThe study took place in 6 RACFs in Northern Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Eligible participants included all permanent residents in participating RACFs for whom written informed consent could be obtained.MeasuresThe primary outcome was the effect on ED visits and hospitalizations at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included a difference in hospitalization rates at 3 and 12 months, total hospital bed-days, and in-RACF and in-hospital mortality rates.ResultsMore than 75% of residents participated, 181 randomized to Intervention and 145 to Control. The intervention did not result in a statistically significant change at 6 months; however, at 12 months, it reached statistical significance with 40% reduction in ED visits and hospitalizations compared with Control, with an incident rate ratio 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41-0.99, P = .044]. Mortality rates show increased likelihood of dying in the RACF, with statistical significance at 6 months at a relative risk ratio of 2.19 (95% CI 1.16-4.14, P = .016).Conclusions and implicationsIn the RACF population, GOPC medical treatment orders were more effective than ACP alone for decreasing hospitalization and likelihood of dying outside the RACF. GOPC should be considered by both RACF staff and health services to decrease hospitalization and in-hospital mortality.     

Provision of Home-Based Primary Care to Individuals With Intellectual and/or Developmental Disability Is Associated With a Lower Hospitalization Rate Than a Traditional Primary Care Model

ObjectivesThe objective of this study was to determine if providing home-based primary care (HBPC) to individuals with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities (IDD) was associated with a lower hospitalization rate than a control group receiving traditional primary care.Design and InterventionIndividuals with IDD living in supported residential settings in Ohio were offered HBPC. Individuals electing HBPC made up the intervention group. Those who did not opt for HBPC continued to receive traditional primary care services and made up the control group. Hospitalizations were tracked in both groups.Setting and ParticipantsThe 757 study participants had IDD diagnoses and received residential support services throughout the study period.MethodsAnnualized hospitalization rate was determined in both groups and was compared using generalized estimating equations while controlling for patients’ age and hospitalization rate in the year prior to the study.ResultsThe results showed that group membership had a significant effect on the hospitalization rate (Wald χ² = 20.71, P < .01). Being in the control group was associated with a 2.12-fold increase in annual hospitalization rate for a given patient. The overall population hospitalization rate was 329 hospitalizations per 1000 per year in the HBPC-receiving individuals and 619 hospitalizations per 1000 per year in the control group.Conclusions and ImplicationsWe found that individuals with IDD receiving HBPC were hospitalized at a lower rate than a control group receiving traditional primary care. Expanding access to HBPC may be a worthwhile priority for organizations that support individuals with IDD.     

Coordinated-Transitional Care (C-TraC) for Veterans from Subacute Rehabilitation to Home

ObjectivesTo adapt a successful acute care transitional model to meet the needs of veterans transitioning from post-acute care to home.DesignQuality improvement intervention.Setting and ParticipantsVeterans discharged from a subacute care unit in the VA Boston Healthcare System's skilled nursing facility.MethodsWe used the Replicating Effective Programs framework and Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles to adapt the Coordinated-Transitional Care (C-TraC) program to the context of transitions from a VA subacute care unit to home. The major adaptation of this registered nurse–driven, telephone-based intervention was combining the roles of discharge coordinator and transitional care case manager. We report the details of the implementation, its feasibility, and results of process measures, and describe its preliminary impact.ResultsBetween October 2021 and April 2022, all 35 veterans who met eligibility criteria in the VA Boston Community Living Center (CLC) participated; none were lost to follow-up. The nurse case manager delivered core components of the calls with high fidelity—review of red flags, detailed medication reconciliation, follow-up with primary care physician, and discharge services were discussed and documented in 97.9%, 95.9%, 86.8%, and 95.9%, respectively. CLC C-TraC interventions included care coordination, patient and caregiver education, connecting patients to resources, and addressing medication discrepancies. Nine medication discrepancies were discovered in 8 patients (22.9%; average of 1.1 discrepancies per patient). Compared with a historical cohort of 84 veterans, more CLC C-TraC patients received a post-discharge call within 7 days (82.9% vs 61.9%; P = .03). There was no difference between rates of attendance to appointments and acute care admissions post-discharge.Conclusions and ImplicationsWe successfully adapted the C-TraC transitional care protocol to the VA subacute care setting. CLC C-TraC resulted in increased post-discharge follow-up and intensive case management. Evaluation of a larger cohort to determine its impact on clinical outcomes such as readmissions is warranted.     

Advance Care Planning in Dutch Nursing Homes During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

ObjectivesTo explore how physicians in Dutch nursing homes practiced advance care planning (ACP) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to explore whether and how ACP changed during the first wave of the pandemic.DesignQualitative analysis of an online, mainly open-ended questionnaire on ACP among physicians working in nursing homes in the Netherlands during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Setting and ParticipantsPhysicians in Dutch nursing homes.MethodsRespondents were asked to describe a recent case in which they had a discussion on anticipatory medical care decisions and to indicate whether ACP was influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic in that specific case and in general. Answers were independently coded and a codebook was compiled in which the codes were ordered by themes that emerged from the data.ResultsA total of 129 questionnaires were filled out. Saturation was reached after analyzing 60 questionnaires. Four main themes evolved after coding the questionnaires: reasons for ACP discussion, discussing ACP, topics discussed in ACP, and decision making in ACP. COVID-19–specific changes in ACP indicated by respondents included (1) COVID-19 infection as a reason for initiating ACP, (2) a higher frequency of ACP discussions, (3) less face-to-face contact with surrogate decision makers, and (4) intensive care unit admission as an additional topic in anticipatory medical decision making.Conclusions and ImplicationsACP in Dutch nursing homes has changed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Maintaining frequent and informal contact with surrogate decision makers fosters mutual understanding and aids the decision-making process in ACP.     

Development of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Risk of Hospitalization With Pressure Injury After Entering Residential Aged Care

ObjectivesAlthough largely preventable, pressure injury is a major concern in individuals in permanent residential aged care (PRAC). Our study aimed to identify predictors and develop a prognostic model for risk of hospitalization with pressure injury (PI) using integrated Australian aged and health care data.DesignNational retrospective cohort study.Setting and ParticipantsIndividuals ≥65 years old (N = 206,540) who entered 1797 PRAC facilities between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016.MethodsPI, ascertained from hospitalization records, within 365 days of PRAC entry was the outcome of interest. Individual, medication, facility, system, and health care–related factors were examined as predictors. Prognostic models were developed using elastic nets penalized regression and Fine and Gray models. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) assessed model discrimination out-of-sample.ResultsWithin 365 days of PRAC entry, 4.3% (n = 8802) of individuals had a hospitalization with PI. The strongest predictors for PI risk include history of PIs [sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 2.41; 95% CI 1.77–3.29]; numbers of prior hospitalizations (having ≥5 hospitalizations, sHR 1.95; 95% CI 1.74–2.19); history of traumatic amputation of toe, ankle, foot and leg (sHR 1.72; 95% CI 1.44–2.05); and history of skin disease (sHR 1.54; 95% CI 1.45–1.65). Lower care needs at PRAC entry with respect to mobility, complex health care, and medication assistance were associated with lower risk of PI. The risk prediction model had an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72–0.75).Conclusions and ImplicationsOur prognostic model for risk of hospitalization with PI performed moderately well and can be used by health and aged care providers to implement risk-based prevention plans at PRAC entry.     

A Multidisciplinary,Community-Based Program to Reduce Unplanned Hospital Admissions

ObjectivesTo evaluate the effect of Hospital Admission Risk Program (HARP) on unplanned hospitalization, bed days, and mortality of enrolled individuals and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HARP.DesignA retrospective longitudinal analysis of hospital administrative data.InterventionIndividuals at risk of hospitalization were provided with multidisciplinary, community-based care support managed by care coordinators including integrated care planning, education, monitoring, service linkages, and general practitioner liaison over 6-9 months.Setting and ParticipantsIndividuals who were enrolled into 1 of 8 HARP chronic disease management programs between July 1, 2017, and June 30, 2018, at the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Australia.MethodsHospital admissions between 18 months before and 18 months after HARP enrollment were analyzed. Total hospital costs were compared between 18 months before and 12 months after HARP enrollment.ResultsA total of 1553 individuals with a median age of 71 years (interquartile range 60-81), 63.4% males, were admitted to HARP. Both unplanned hospitalizations and bed days were reduced during the HARP intervention compared to within 3 months before enrollment in each of the HARP management programs. After the HARP intervention, cardiac coach, cardiac heart failure, chronic respiratory, diabetes comanagement, and medication management programs had higher hospitalizations and bed days than individuals’ baseline of at least 3 months before HARP enrollment. Individuals in cardiac heart failure and chronic respiratory management programs had a higher mortality rate than other HARP chronic disease management programs. Individuals in cardiac coach, diabetes comanagement, and medication management programs had lower hospital costs during the HARP intervention compared to within 3 months before HARP enrollment.Conclusions and ImplicationsHARP reduced unplanned hospitalization and bed days but did not return individuals’ hospital use to baseline before the intervention. The variations in mortality between HARP chronic disease management programs implies that condition-specific goals between programs is preferable.