Height Loss in Old Age and Fracture Risk Among Men in Late Life: A Prospective Cohort Study

To assess the association of height loss in old age with subsequent risk of hip and any clinical fracture in men late in life while accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 3491 community-dwelling men (mean age 79.2 years). Height loss between baseline and follow-up (mean 7.0 years between examinations) was categorized as <1 cm (referent group), ≥1 to <2 cm, ≥2 to <3 cm, and ≥3 cm. Men were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports) and ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates). Competing risk methods were used to estimate absolute probabilities of fracture outcomes by height loss category and calculate adjusted risks of fracture outcomes by height loss. During an average of 7.8 years, 158 (4.5%) men experienced a hip fracture and 1414 (40.5%) died before experiencing this event. The absolute 10-year probability of fracture events accounting for the competing risk of death increased with greater height loss. For example, the hip fracture probability was 2.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9–3.8%) among men with height loss <1 cm increasing to 11.6% (95% CI 8.0–16.0%) among men with height loss ≥3 cm. After adjustment for demographics, fall history, multimorbidity, baseline height, weight change, and femoral neck bone mineral density and considering competing mortality risk, men with height loss ≥3 cm versus <1 cm had a nearly twofold (subdistribution hazard ratio [HR] = 1.94, 95% CI 1.06–3.55) higher risk of hip fracture and a 1.4-fold (subdistribution HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.05–1.91) increased risk of any clinical fracture. Height loss ≥3 cm in men during old age was associated with higher subsequent risk of clinical fractures, especially hip fractures, even after accounting for the competing risk of death and traditional skeletal and non-skeletal risk factors. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR)     

Association Between Recurrent Fracture Risk and Implementation of Fracture Liaison Services in Four Swedish Hospitals: A Cohort Study

Structured secondary preventions programs, called fracture liaison services (FLSs), increase the rate of evaluation with bone densitometry and use of osteoporosis medication after fracture. However, the evidence regarding the effect on the risk of recurrent fracture is insufficient. The aim of this study was to investigate if implementation of FLS was associated with reduced risk of recurrent fractures. In this retrospective cohort study, electronic health records during 2012 to 2017 were used to identify a total of 21,083 patients from four hospitals in Western Sweden, two with FLS (n = 15,449) and two without (n = 5634). All patients aged 50 years or older (mean age 73.9 [SD 12.4] years, 76% women) with a major osteoporotic index fracture (hip, clinical spine, humerus, radius, and pelvis) were included. The primary outcome was recurrent major osteoporotic fracture. All patients with an index fracture during the FLS period (n = 13,946) were compared with all patients in the period before FLS implementation (n = 7137) in an intention-to-treat analysis. Time periods corresponding to the FLS hospitals were used for the non-FLS hospitals. In the hospitals with FLSs, there were 1247 recurrent fractures during a median follow-up time of 2.2 years (range 0–6 years). In an unadjusted Cox model, the risk of recurrent fracture was 18% lower in the FLS period compared with the control period (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73–0.92, p = .001), corresponding to a 3-year number needed to screen of 61, and did not change after adjustment for clinical risk factors. In the hospitals without FLSs, no change in recurrent fracture rate was observed. Treatment decisions were made according to the Swedish treatment guidelines. In conclusion, implementation of FLS was associated with a reduced risk of recurrent fracture, indicating that FLSs should be included routinely at hospitals treating fracture patients. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Progressively increasing fracture risk with advancing age after initial incident fragility fracture: The Tromsø Study

The risk of subsequent fracture is increased after initial fractures; however, proper understanding of its magnitude is lacking. This population‐based study examines the subsequent fracture risk in women and men by age and type of initial incident fracture. All incident nonvertebral fractures between 1994 and 2009 were registered in 27,158 participants in the Tromsø Study, Norway. The analysis included 3108 subjects with an initial incident fracture after the age of 49 years. Subsequent fracture (n = 664) risk was expressed as rate ratios (RR) and absolute proportions irrespective of death. The rates of both initial and subsequent fractures increased with age, the latter with the steepest curve. Compared with initial incident fracture rate of 30.8 per 1000 in women and 12.9 per 1000 in men, the overall age‐adjusted RR of subsequent fracture was 1.3 (95% CI, 1.2–1.5) in women, and 2.0 (95% CI, 1.6–2.4) in men. Although the RRs decreased with age, the absolute proportions of those with initial fracture who suffered a subsequent fracture increased with age; from 9% to 30% in women and from 10% to 26% in men, between the age groups 50–59 to 80+ years. The type of subsequent fracture varied by age from mostly minor fractures in the youngest to hip or other major fractures in the oldest age groups, irrespective of type and severity of initial fracture. In women and men, 45% and 38% of the subsequent hip or other major fractures, respectively, were preceded by initial minor fractures. The risk of subsequent fracture is high in all age groups. At older age, severe subsequent fracture types follow both clinically severe and minor initial incident fractures. Any fragility fracture in the elderly reflects the need for specific osteoporosis management to reduce further fracture risk. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Compound risk of high mortality following osteoporotic fracture and refracture in elderly women and men

After fracture there is increased risk of refracture and premature mortality. These outcomes, particularly premature mortality following refracture, have not previously been studied together to understand overall mortality risk. This study examined the long‐term cumulative incidence of subsequent fracture and total mortality with mortality calculated as a compound risk and separated according to initial and refracture. Community‐dwelling participants aged 60+ years from Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study with incident fractures, followed prospectively for further fractures and deaths from 1989 to 2010. Subsequent fracture and mortality ascertained using cumulative incidence competing risk models allowing four possible outcomes: death without refracture; death following refracture; refracture but alive, and event‐free. There were 952 women and 343 men with incident fracture. Within 5 years following initial fracture, 24% women and 20% men refractured; and 26% women and 37% men died without refracture. Of those who refractured, a further 50% of women and 75% of men died, so that total 5‐year mortality was 39% in women and 51% in men. Excess mortality was 24% in women and 27% in men. Although mortality following refracture occurred predominantly in the first 5 years post–initial fracture, total mortality (post‐initial and refracture) was elevated for 10 years. Most of the 5‐year to 10‐year excess mortality was associated with refracture. The long‐term (>10 years) refracture rate was reduced, particularly in the elderly as a result of their high mortality rate. The 30% alive beyond 10 years postfracture were at low risk of further adverse outcomes. Refractures contribute substantially to overall mortality associated with fracture. The majority of the mortality and refractures occurred in the first 5 years following the initial fracture. However, excess mortality was observed for up to 10 years postfracture, predominantly related to that after refracture. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Prediction of Incident Major Osteoporotic and Hip Fractures by Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) and Prevalent Radiographic Vertebral Fracture in Older Men

Trabecular bone score (TBS) has been shown to predict major osteoporotic (clinical vertebral, hip, humerus, and wrist) and hip fractures in postmenopausal women and older men, but the association of TBS with these incident fractures in men independent of prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture is unknown. TBS was estimated on anteroposterior (AP) spine dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans obtained at the baseline visit for 5979 men aged ≥65 years enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study and its association with incident major osteoporotic and hip fractures estimated with proportional hazards models. Model discrimination was tested with Harrell's C‐statistic and with a categorical net reclassification improvement index, using 10‐year risk cutpoints of 20% for major osteoporotic and 3% for hip fractures. For each standard deviation decrease in TBS, there were hazard ratios of 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17 to 1.39) for major osteoporotic fracture, and 1.20 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.39) for hip fracture, adjusted for FRAX with bone mineral density (BMD) 10‐year fracture risks and prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture. In the same model, those with prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture compared with those without prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture had hazard ratios of 1.92 (95% CI 1.49 to 2.48) for major osteoporotic fracture and 1.86 (95% CI 1.26 to 2.74) for hip fracture. There were improvements of 3.3%, 5.2%, and 6.2%, respectively, of classification of major osteoporotic fracture cases when TBS, prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture status, or both were added to FRAX with BMD and age, with minimal loss of correct classification of non‐cases. Neither TBS nor prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture improved discrimination of hip fracture cases or non‐cases. In conclusion, TBS and prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture are associated with incident major osteoporotic fractures in older men independent of each other and FRAX 10‐year fracture risks, and these data support their use in conjunction with FRAX for fracture risk assessment in older men. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

The Association of Cold Ambient Temperature With Fracture Risk and Mortality: National Data From Norway—A Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies (NOREPOS) Study

Norway is an elongated country with large variations in climate and duration of winter season. It is also a high-risk country for osteoporotic fractures, in particular hip fractures, which cause high mortality. Although most hip fractures occur indoors, there is a higher incidence of both forearm and hip fractures during wintertime, compared with summertime. In a nationwide longitudinal cohort study, we investigated whether cold ambient (outdoor) temperatures could be an underlying cause of this high incidence and mortality. Hospitalized/outpatient forearm fractures (International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision [ICD-10] code S52) and hospitalized hip fractures (ICD-10 codes S72.0–S72.2) from 2008 to 2018 were retrieved from the Norwegian Patient Registry. Average monthly ambient temperatures (degrees Celsius, °C) from the years 2008 to 2018 were provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and linked to the residential area of each inhabitant. Poisson models were fitted to estimate the association (incidence rate ratios [IRRs], 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) between temperature and monthly incidence of total number of forearm and hip fractures. Flexible parametric survival models (hazard ratios [HR], 95% CI) were used to estimate the association between temperature and post–hip fracture mortality, taking the population mortality into account. Monthly temperature ranged from −20.2°C to 22.0°C, with a median of −2.0°C in winter and 14.4°C in summer. At low temperatures (<0°C) compared to ≥0°C, there was a 53% higher risk of forearm fracture (95% CI, 51%–55%) and 21% higher risk of hip fracture (95% CI, 19%–22%), adjusting for age, gender, calendar year, urbanization, residential region, elevation, and coastal proximity. When taking the population mortality into account, the post–hip fracture mortality in both men (HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.02–1.13) and women (HR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04–1.14) was still higher at cold temperatures. There was a higher risk of forearm and hip fractures, and an excess post–hip fracture mortality at cold ambient temperatures. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).     

The Effect of Latitude on the Risk and Seasonal Variation in Hip Fracture in Sweden

Although the optimal requirement of vitamin D for skeletal health in the general community is controversial, vitamin D deficiency impairs bone mineralization and increases bone turnover via secondary hyperparathyroidism, thus accelerating bone loss and increasing fracture risk. Support for a role of vitamin D deficiency in the epidemiology of hip fracture is found in the seasonal variation of hip fracture incidence that is reported in several studies. If the association were causal, then the incidence and amplitude of the seasonal variation in hip fracture risk should vary by latitude. We addressed this hypothesis by examining the incidence of hip fracture in men and women aged 50 years or more from Sweden (latitudes 55 to 69°) between 1987 and 2009. In order to reduce double counting, only one fracture in a period of a year was counted per individual. Men contributed 104,888 fractures in 33,313,065 person years and women 264,362 fractures in 38,387,660 person years. The effects of season and latitude were examined by Poisson regression. As expected, hip fracture rates were higher in women than in men. After adjustment for age, season and population density, hip fracture incidence increased by 3.0% (95% CI: 2.7–3.2%) per degree increase in latitude for men and by 1.9% (95% CI: 1.8–2.1%) for women. There was a marked seasonal variation of hip fracture with the highest risk in February and lower by 37.5% in men and by 23.5% women during the summer. There were significant interactions of amplitude of the seasonal variation with latitude (p < 0.001 for both men and women), indicating that seasonal variation during the year was more pronounced in the north of Sweden than in the south. The associations found with latitude and season is consistent with a role of vitamin D in hip fracture causation. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

The Ability of a Single BMD and Fracture History Assessment to Predict Fracture Over 25 Years in Postmenopausal Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures

The ability of bone mineral density (BMD) and other risk factors to predict fracture risk is well‐established for as long as 5 to 10 years. However, their value to predict risk over a longer term has not been directly studied. We investigated whether a single assessment of femoral neck BMD and fracture history can predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. We used data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) that assessed BMD and risk factors in 7959 women age ≥67 (mean = 73.4) in 1988–1990. Follow‐up for fractures continued for 25 years for hip fracture, and for 20 years for any nonvertebral fracture. Using age‐adjusted proportional hazards models, we analyzed the relationships between a single baseline assessment of femoral neck BMD, fracture history and age, and 20–25‐year fracture incidence. The 25‐year cumulative incidence of hip fracture was 17.9%; 20‐year incidence of any nonvertebral fracture was 46.2%. The 25‐year hip fracture incidence was highest in those ≥80 years old (22.6%) compared to 13.9% in women aged <70 years. A single femoral neck BMD measurement strongly predicted long‐term hip fracture risk to 25 years: 29.6% risk in the lowest BMD quartile versus 7.6% with the highest relative hazard (RH) = 4.9 (95% CI, 4.1 to 6.0). Femoral neck BMD predicted hip fracture with little degradation over time from RH/SD = 2.6 (2.2 to 3.0) for 0 to 5 years to RH/SD = 1.8 (1.4 to 2.4) for 20 to 25 years. Lifetime hip fracture risk was similar (～30%) regardless of age from 67 to >80 years. History of hip fracture predicted hip fractures only slightly better than history of nonvertebral fracture (RH = 1.6 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.2] versus RH = 1.4 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.5], respectively). Fracture history remained strongly predictive up to 25 years. We conclude that a single BMD and fracture history assessment can predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. Long‐term risk of hip fracture remains extremely high in the oldest age groups, supporting risk assessment and consideration of treatment even in the oldest, highest‐risk women.© 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Contemporary Risk of Hip Fracture in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes: A National Registry Study From Scotland

The purpose of this study was to compare contemporary risk of hip fracture in type 1 and type 2 diabetes with the nondiabetic population. Using a national diabetes database, we identified those with type 1 and type 2 diabetes who were aged 20 to 84 years and alive anytime from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2007. All hospitalized events for hip fracture in 2005 to 2007 for diabetes patients were linked and compared with general population counts. Age‐ and calendar‐year‐adjusted incidence rate ratios were calculated by diabetes type and sex. One hundred five hip fractures occurred in 21,033 people (59,585 person‐years) with type 1 diabetes; 1421 in 180,841 people (462,120 person‐years) with type 2 diabetes; and 11,733 hip fractures over 10,980,599 person‐years in the nondiabetic population (3.66 million people). Those with type 1 diabetes had substantially elevated risks of hip fracture compared with the general population incidence risk ratio (IRR) of 3.28 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.52–4.26) in men and 3.54 (CI 2.75–4.57) in women. The IRR was greater at younger ages, but absolute risk difference was greatest at older ages. In type 2 diabetes, there was no elevation in risk among men (IRR 0.97 [CI 0.92–1.02]) and the increase in risk in women was small (IRR 1.05 [CI 1.01–1.10]). There remains a substantial elevation relative risk of hip fracture in people with type 1 diabetes, but the relative risk is much lower than in earlier studies. In contrast, there is currently little elevation in overall hip fracture risk with type 2 diabetes, but this may mask elevations in risk in particular subgroups of type 2 diabetes patients with different body mass indexes, diabetes duration, or drug exposure. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Incidence of Fractures Before and After Dialysis Initiation

Fractures are common in dialysis patients, but little is known about the trajectory of incidence rates of different types of fractures before and after dialysis initiation. To address this, we investigated the incidence of major fractures before and after dialysis initiation. We performed a retrospective statistical analysis using the Swedish Renal Registry of 9041 incident dialysis patients (median age 67 years, 67% men) starting dialysis 2005 through 2015 to identify major fractures (hip, spine, humerus, and forearm) occurring during the dialysis transition period from 1 year before until 1 year after dialysis initiation. Using flexible parametric hazard models and the Fine-Gray model, we estimated adjusted fracture incidence rates and predictors of major fractures. We identified 361 cases with primary diagnosis of major fracture, of which 196 (54%) were hip fractures. The crude incidence rate of major fractures before dialysis initiation was 17 per 1000 patient-years (n = 157) and after dialysis initiation it was 24 per 1000 patient-years (n = 204). The adjusted incidence rate of major fractures began to increase 6 months before dialysis initiation, and then stabilized at a higher rate after 1 year. The adjusted incidence rate of hip fractures started to increase sharply 3 months before dialysis initiation, peaked at initiation, and declined thereafter. In contrast, the adjusted incidence rate of non-hip fractures was stable during the transition period and gradually increased over time. Higher age, female sex, and history of previous major fractures were associated with increased fracture incidence both before and after dialysis initiation. We conclude that the incidence of major fractures, especially hip fractures, start to rise 6 months before initiation of dialysis therapy, indicating that heightened surveillance with implementation of preventive measures to avoid fractures is warranted during the transition period to dialysis. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).     

Risk Factors for Fracture in Middle‐Age and Older‐Age Men of African Descent

Although fracture rates are lower in individuals of African descent compared to individuals of European ancestry, morbidity and mortality following a fracture may be greater in individuals of African ancestry. However, fracture risk and associated clinical risk factors have not been well‐defined among African ancestry populations, especially among men of African ancestry. We used data collected from the Tobago Bone Health Study to examine potential clinical risk factors for incident fractures, including demographic information, anthropometric measurements, medical history, lifestyle factors, bone mineral density (BMD), and hip structural geometry. Among 1933 Afro‐Caribbean men aged ≥40 years at study entry (mean age: 57.2 ± 11.0 years), 65 reported at least one new fracture during 10 years of subsequent follow‐up. Younger age, mixed Afro‐Caribbean ancestry, prior fracture history, BMD, and hip structural geometry were statistically significant risk factors for incident fractures. A 1‐SD change in several skeletal parameters (hip BMD, cross‐sectional area, outer diameter, cortical thickness, and buckling ratio) were each associated with a 35% to 56% increase in incident fracture risk after adjusting for age. Men with a prior fracture history were three times more likely to experience a new fracture during follow‐up, and the association remained strong after adjusting for age, mixed Afro‐Caribbean ancestry, and skeletal parameters (hazard ratios ranged from 2.72 to 2.82). Our findings suggest that except for age, risk factors for fracture in men of African ancestry are similar to established risk factors in white populations. Prior fracture history is a powerful and independent risk factor for incident fractures among men of African ancestry and could easily be incorporated into clinical risk evaluation. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Prediction of fracture risk in men: a cohort study

FRAX is a tool that identifies individuals with high fracture risk who will benefit from pharmacological treatment of osteoporosis. However, a majority of fractures among elderly occur in people without osteoporosis and most occur after a fall. Our aim was to accurately identify men with a high future risk of fracture, independent of cause. In the population‐based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) and using survival analysis we studied different models' prognostic values (R²) for any fracture and hip fracture within 10 years from age 50 (n = 2322), 60 (n = 1852), 71 (n = 1221), and 82 (n = 526) years. During the total follow‐up period from age 50 years, 897 fractures occurred in 585 individuals. Of these, 281 were hip fractures occurring in 189 individuals. The rates of any fracture were 5.7/1000 person‐years at risk from age 50 years and 25.9/1000 person‐years at risk from age 82 years. Corresponding hip fractures rates were 2.9 and 11.7/1000 person‐years at risk. The FRAX model included all variables in FRAX except bone mineral density. The full model combining FRAX variables, comorbidity, medications, and behavioral factors explained 25% to 45% of all fractures and 80% to 92% of hip fractures, depending on age. The corresponding prognostic values of the FRAX model were 7% to 17% for all fractures and 41% to 60% for hip fractures. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) comparing the full model with the FRAX model ranged between 40% and 53% for any fracture and between 40% and 87% for hip fracture. Within the highest quintile of predicted fracture risk with the full model, one‐third of the men will have a fracture within 10 years after age 71 years and two‐thirds after age 82 years. We conclude that the addition of comorbidity, medication, and behavioral factors to the clinical components of FRAX can substantially improve the ability to identify men at high risk of fracture, especially hip fracture. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Prediction of Osteoporotic Fractures in Elderly Individuals: A Derivation and Internal Validation Study Using Healthcare Administrative Data

In Canada and other countries, osteoporosis is monitored as part of chronic disease population surveillance programs. Although fractures are the principal manifestation of osteoporosis, very few algorithms are available to identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fractures in current surveillance systems. The objective of this study was to derive and validate predictive models to accurately identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fracture using information available in healthcare administrative data. More than 270,000 men and women aged ≥66 years were randomly selected from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System. Selected individuals were followed between fiscal years 2006–2007 and 2015–2016. Models were constructed for prediction of hip/femur and major osteoporotic fractures for follow-up periods of 5 and 10 years. A total of 62 potential predictors measurable in healthcare administrative databases were identified. Predictor selection was performed using a manual backward algorithm. The predictive performance of the final models was assessed using measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. Between 20 and 25 predictors were retained in the final prediction models (eg, age, sex, social deprivation index, most of the major and minor risk factors for osteoporosis, diabetes, Parkinson's disease, cognitive impairment, anemia, anxio-depressive disorders). Discrimination of the final models was higher for the prediction of hip/femur fracture than major osteoporotic fracture and higher for prediction for a 5-year than a 10-year period (hip/femur fracture for 5 years: c-index = 0.77; major osteoporotic fracture for 5 years: c-index = 0.71; hip/femur fracture for 10 years: c-index = 0.73; major osteoporotic fracture for 10 years: c-index = 0.68). The predicted probabilities globally agreed with the observed probabilities. In conclusion, the derived models had adequate predictive performance in internal validation. As a final step, these models should be validated in an external cohort and used to develop indicators for surveillance of osteoporosis. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).     

Older men with low serum IGF‐1 have an increased risk of incident fractures: The MrOS Sweden study

Osteoporosis‐related fractures constitute a major health concern not only in women but also in men. Insulin‐like growth factor 1 (IGF‐1) is a key determinant of bone mass, but the association between serum IGF‐1 and incident fractures in men remains unclear. To determine the predictive value of serum IGF‐1 for fracture risk in men, older men (n = 2902, mean age of 75 years) participating in the prospective, population‐based Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Sweden study were followed for a mean of 3.3 years. Serum IGF‐1 was measured at baseline by radioimmunoassay. Fractures occurring after the baseline visit were validated. In age‐adjusted hazards regression analyses, serum IGF‐1 associated inversely with risk of all fractures [hazard ratio (HR) per SD decrease = 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07–1.41], hip fractures (HR per SD decrease = 1.45, 95% CI 1.07–1.97), and clinical vertebral fractures (HR per SD decrease = 1.40, 95% CI 1.10–1‐78). The predictive role of serum IGF‐1 for fracture risk was unaffected by adjustment for height, weight, prevalent fractures, falls, and major prevalent diseases. Further adjustment for bone mineral density (BMD) resulted in an attenuated but still significant association between serum IGF‐1 and fracture risk. Serum IGF‐1 below but not above the median was inversely related to fracture incidence. The population‐attributable risk proportion was 7.5% for all fractures and 22.9% for hip fractures. Taken together, older men with low serum IGF‐1 have an increased fracture risk, especially for the two most important fracture types, hip and vertebral fractures. The association between serum IGF‐1 and fracture risk is partly mediated via BMD. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Incidence and demography of femur fractures with and without atypical features

The case definition, community incidence, and characteristics of atypical femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are poorly understood. This retrospective study utilized electronic medical records and radiograph review among women ≥50 years of age and men ≥65 years of age from January 1996 to June 2009 at Kaiser Permanente Northwest to describe the incidence rates and characteristics of subgroups of femur fractures. Fractures were categorized based on the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) as atypical fracture major features (AFMs) (low force, shaft location, transverse or short oblique, noncomminuted) and AFMs with additional minor radiograph features (AFMms) (beaking, cortical thickening, or stress fracture). There were 5034 fractures in the study. The incidence rates of FSFs (without atypical features) and AFMs appeared flat (cumulative incidence: 18.2 per 100,000 person‐years, 95% CI = 16.0–20.7; 5.9 per 100,000 person‐years, 95% CI = 4.6–7.4; respectively) with 1,271,575 person‐years observed. The proportion of AFMs that were AFMms increased over time. Thirty percent of AFMs had any dispensing of a bisphosphonate prior to the fracture, compared to 15.8% of the non‐atypical FSFs. Years of oral glucocorticosteroid dispensing appeared highest in AFM and AFMm fractures. Those with AFMs only were older and had a lower frequency of bisphosphonate dispensing compared to those with AFMms. We conclude that rates of FSFs, with and without atypia, were low and stable over 13.5 years. Patients with only AFMs appear to be different from those with AFMms; it may be that only the latter group is atypical. There appear to be multiple associated risk factors for AFMm fractures. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Hip fracture and risk of acute myocardial infarction: A nationwide study

Osteoporotic fractures are associated with increased mortality risk. However, little data are available on the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after hip fracture. Therefore, we investigated whether hip fracture increased the risk of AMI in a large, nationwide cohort study. We obtained data from 8758 patients diagnosed with hip fracture from 2000 to 2009 and from 4 matched controls for each patient from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID 2000), Taiwan. Controls were matched for age, sex, comorbid disorders, and enrollment date. All subjects were followed up from the date of enrollment until AMI, death, or the end of data collection (2009). Cox's regression model adjusted for age, sex, comorbid disorders, and medication was used to assess independent factors determining the risk of development of AMI. As expected, despite the matching, the hip fracture patients had more risk factors for AMI at baseline. A total of 8758 subjects with hip fractures and 35,032 controls were identified. Among these patients, 1183 (257 hip fracture patients and 926 controls) developed AMI during the median 3.2‐year (interquartile range 1.4 to 5.8 years) follow‐up period. Patients with hip fractures had a higher incidence of AMI occurrence when compared with controls (8.7/1000 person‐years versus 6.82/1000 person‐years). Multivariate analysis adjusted for baseline covariates indicated that hip fracture was associated with a greater risk for AMI development (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12–1.48; p < 0.001). We conclude that hip fracture is independently associated with a higher risk of subsequent AMI. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

A Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Fragility Fractures and Mortality in the Elderly

Existing fracture risk assessment tools are not designed to predict fracture-associated consequences, possibly contributing to the current undermanagement of fragility fractures worldwide. We aimed to develop a risk assessment tool for predicting the conceptual risk of fragility fractures and its consequences. The study involved 8965 people aged ≥60 years from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Incident fracture was identified from X-ray reports and questionnaires, and death was ascertained though contact with a family member or obituary review. We used a multistate model to quantify the effects of the predictors on the transition risks to an initial and subsequent incident fracture and mortality, accounting for their complex interrelationships, confounding effects, and death as a competing risk. There were 2364 initial fractures, 755 subsequent fractures, and 3300 deaths during a median follow-up of 13 years (interquartile range [IQR] 7–15). The prediction model included sex, age, bone mineral density, history of falls within 12 previous months, prior fracture after the age of 50 years, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary diseases, hypertension, and cancer. The model accurately predicted fragility fractures up to 11 years of follow-up and post-fracture mortality up to 9 years, ranging from 7 years after hip fractures to 15 years after non-hip fractures. For example, a 70-year-old woman with a T-score of −1.5 and without other risk factors would have 10% chance of sustaining a fracture and an 8% risk of dying in 5 years. However, after an initial fracture, her risk of sustaining another fracture or dying doubles to 33%, ranging from 26% after a distal to 42% post hip fracture. A robust statistical technique was used to develop a prediction model for individualization of progression to fracture and its consequences, facilitating informed decision making about risk and thus treatment for individuals with different risk profiles. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

High hip fracture risk in men with severe aortic calcification: MrOS study

A significant link between cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis is established in postmenopausal women, but data for men are scarce. We tested the hypothesis that greater severity of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) was associated with an increased risk of nonspine fracture in 5994 men aged ≥65 years. AAC was assessed on 5400 baseline lateral thoracolumbar radiographs using a validated visual semiquantitative score. Total hip bone mineral density (BMD) was measured using dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry. Incident nonspine fractures were centrally adjudicated. After adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), total hip BMD, fall history, prior fracture, smoking status, comorbidities, race, and clinical center, the risk of nonspine fracture (n = 805) was increased among men with higher AAC (hazard ratio [HR] quartile 4 [Q4] [AAC score ≥9] versus quartile 1 [Q1] [0–1], 1.36; 96% confidence interval [CI], 1.10–1.68). This association was due to an increased risk of hip fracture (n = 178) among men with higher AAC (HR Q4 versus Q1, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.41–3.87). By contrast, the association between AAC and the risk of nonspine, nonhip fracture was weaker and not significant (HR Q4 versus Q1, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.96–1.55). The findings regarding higher AAC and increased risk of fracture were not altered in additional analyses accounting for degree of trauma, estimated glomerular filtration rate, presence of lumbar vertebral fractures (which may bias AAC assessment), preexisting cardiovascular disease, ankle brachial index, or competing risk of death. Thus, in this large cohort of elderly men, greater AAC was independently associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, but not with other nonspine fractures. These findings suggest that AAC assessment may be a useful method for identification of older men at high risk of hip fracture. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.