Physical Activity and Risk Factors for Hip Fractures in Thai Women

Hip fractures are among the most important causes of ill health and death among elderly people. Several potentially modifiable risk factors have been reported. Most claimed physical activity as a promising, inexpensive preventive measure for hip fracture. However, knowledge about risk factors for hip fracture in Asian populations is very limited. We therefore conducted a case–control study to assess the relationships between physical activity and risk of hip fractures in Thai women. From 14 hospitals in Thailand, 229 cases with a radiologically confirmed first hip fracture were enrolled. Two hundred and twenty-four controls were randomly recruited from the same neighborhood and were matched to the cases by age within a 5 year range. Information on physical activity as well as other potential confounders was obtained through personal interviews. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that past physical activity was protective in both very active and active women (OR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.40–1.12 for moderately active women and OR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.10–0.38 for very active women; p value for trend <0.01). Recent physical activity reduced the risk to about two-thirds (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.19–0.60 and OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.18–0.69 for moderately and very active women respectively). In addition, breastfeeding was identified to be a protective factor (OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.80–0.94). In contrast, the following risk factors were identified: current use of antihistamine (OR = 13.96, 95% CI = 1.38–141.13) or traditional medicine (OR = 7.66, 95% CI = 2.71–21.63), underlying cerebrovascular diseases (OR = 6.53, 95% CI = 2.10–20.34), history of fracture (OR = 4.04, 95% CI = 1.26–12.99), parental Chinese racial background (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.49–4.23), alcohol consumption (OR = 2.30, 95% CI = 1.04–5.09). Received: 14 April 2000 / Accepted: 17 October 2000     

Socioeconomic Status, Marital Status and Hip Fracture Risk: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

Socioeconomic status and social support have been identified as important determinants of several diseases and overall mortality, but these factors have not been adequately examined in relation to hip fracture risk. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship of socioeconomic status and marital status to hip fracture risk. We used data from a population-based case–control study in postmenopausal women aged 50–81 years during 1993–1995 who resided in six counties in Sweden. The analysis was based on 1327 incident cases of hip fracture and 3262 randomly selected controls. Socioeconomic and marital status were obtained by record linkage with census data in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990. Information on other possible risk factors for hip fracture was collected by a mailed questionnaire. Women who were gainfully employed in 1990 had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.96] compared with those not gainfully employed; those in the highest tertile of household income had an OR of 0.74 (95% CI 0.60–0.90) compared with those in the lowest tertile of income. Women who lived in a one-family house had an OR of 0.85 (95% CI 0.72–0.99) compared with those living in an apartment. Divorced, widowed or unmarried women had a higher risk of hip fracture than married or cohabiting women; the OR was 1.40 (95% CI 1.06–1.85). Married women who were both gainfully employed and were living in a one-family house had a substantially decreased risk of hip fracture compared with unemployed women living without a partner in an apartment (OR 0.39; 95% CI 0.22–0.71). Occupational affiliation among women ever employed, and educational level, were not associated with hip fracture risk. We conclude that employment, household income, type of housing and marital status seem to be risk indicators of hip fracture risk independent of known osteoporotic risk factors. Received: 6 October 1999 / Accepted: 29 March 2000     

Characteristics of Falls and Risk of Hip Fracture in Elderly Men

The steep rise in hip fracture incidence rates with age is not fully explained by an increase in the frequency of falls or by reduction in bone mineral density, suggesting that circumstances of falls may also affect the risk of hip fracture. Previous studies conducted mainly among women have identified the importance of the orientation of a fall in the etiology of hip fracture. In this case–control study among men of 45 years and older, we evaluated how the circumstances of falls affect the risk of hip fracture. We compared 214 cases with hip fracture due to a fall with 86 controls who had fallen within the past year but did not sustain a hip fracture. As expected, in multivariable age-adjusted analyses men who reported hitting the hip/thigh in a fall had a markedly elevated risk of hip fracture (OR = 97.8; 95% CI = 31.7–302). Hitting the knee in a fall was associated with reduced risk (OR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.09–0.67). Other factors that were associated with reduced risk of hip fracture among men who fell were more hours of physical activity in the past year (OR = 0.84; 95% CI = 0.73–0.97, for each additional 4 h per week), a greater body mass index (OR = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.40–0.90, for each additional 4 kg/m²), and a history of a fracture when age 45 years or older (OR = 0.26; 95% CI = 0.10–0.69). Reported lower limb dysfunction was associated with increased risk of hip fracture (OR = 6.41; 95% CI = 2.09–19.6) among fallers. The increased risk associated with hitting the hip/thigh in a fall and the reduced risk associated with high body mass index suggest that preventive efforts for older men at high risk might include protective hip pads to reduce the force on the hip in a fall. Exercise and strength training programs may also reduce the risk of hip fracture among men who fall. Received: 12 May 1997 / Accepted: 14 October 1997     

Differences in Risk Factor Patterns Between Cervical and Trochanteric Hip Fractures

The two types of hip fracture – cervical and trochanteric femoral fractures – are generally considered together in etiologic studies. However, women with a trochanteric fracture may be more osteoporotic than those with cervical hip fractures, and have higher post-fracture mortality. To explore differences in risk factor patterns between the two types of hip fracture we used data from a large population-based case–control study in Swedish women, 50–81 years of age. Data were collected by questionnaire, to which more than 80% of subjects responded. Of the cases included, 811 had had a cervical fracture and 483 a trochanteric fracture during the study period; these cases were compared with 3312 randomly selected controls. Height and hormonal factors appeared to affect the risk of the two types of hip fracture differently. For every 5 cm of current height, women with a cervical fracture had an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.23 (95% CI 1.15–1.32) compared with an OR of 1.06 (95% CI 0.97–1.15) for women with trochanteric fractures. Later menopausal age was protective for trochanteric fractures (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91–0.99 per 2 years) but no such association was found for cervical fractures. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had an OR of 1.48 (95% CI 1.12–1.95) for trochanteric fractures and 1.22 (95% CI 0.98–1.52) for cervical fractures. Current hormone replacement therapy was similarly protective for both fracture types, but former use substantially reduced risk only for trochanteric fractures: OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.33–0.92) compared with 1.00 (95% CI 0.71–1.39) for cervical fractures. These risk factor patterns suggest etiologic differences between the fracture types which have to be considered when planning preventive interventions. Received: 22 March 1999 / Accepted: 28 May 1999     

Risk Factors for Perimenopausal Fractures: A Prospective Study

This prospective study was aimed at determining the risk factors for the development of fractures in perimenopausal women. The study group (n= 3068) was comprised of a stratified population sample of women aged between 47 and 56 years. During the follow-up period of 3.6 years, 257 (8.4%) of the women sustained a total of 295 fractures. After adjustment for covariates, the relative risk (RR) of sustaining a fracture was found to be 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–1.6] for a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in the spinal and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Women with a previous fracture history were found to have an increased risk of fracture [RR 1.7 (95% CI 1.3–2.2)] and those reporting three or more chronic illnesses exhibited a RR of 1.4 (95% CI 1.0–1.9). Women not using hormone replacement therapy (HRT) had a RR of 1.5 (95% CI 1.1–2.2) for all fracture types. When osteoporotic fractures (vertebral, hip, proximal humerus and wrist fractures; n= 98) were used as an endpoint, the independent risk factors were found to be a low BMD (RR for a 1 SD decrease in both spinal and femoral neck BMD was 1.6, 95% CI 1.3–2.0), a previous fracture history (RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3–2.9) and nonuse of HRT (RR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3–4.0). The independent risk factors for all other fractures (n = 158) were a low BMD (RR for a 1 SD decrease in the spinal BMD was 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.6 and in the femoral neck BMD was 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.5), a previous fracture history (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.2), smoking (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–2.7) and having had three or more chronic illnesses (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.2). Weight, height, age, menopausal status, maternal hip fracture, use of alcohol, coffee consumption or dietary calcium intake were not independently associated with the development of any particular type of fracture. We conclude that the independent risk factors for perimenopausal fractures are a low bone density, previous fracture history, nonuse of HRT, having had three or more chronic illnesses and smoking, the gradient of risk being similar for spinal and femoral neck BMD measurements in the perimenopausal population. The risk factors are slightly different for perimenopausal osteoporotic than for other types of fractures. Received: 6 April 1999 / Accepted: 18 August 1999     

Fall Characterictics, Functional Mobility and Bone Mineral Density as Risk Factors of Hip Fracture in the Community-Dwelling Ambulatory Elderly

Hip fracture is the most serious consequence of osteoporosis, frequently occurring in the elderly; however, no research has been performed to identify the fall characteristics, functional mobility and bone mineral density (BMD) concurrently as risk factors. We investigated the risk factors of hip fractures using a multifactorial approach for a further preventive strategy. This age- and sex-matched case-control study was conducted in a community-based general hospital. A total of 252 consecutive community-dwelling ambulatory elderly, aged between 65 and 85 years, were studied: 127 patients (faller with hip fracture) and 125 controls (faller without hip fracture). Body mass index (BMI), predisposing medical conditions, fall characteristics, functional mobility and BMD of the hip were evaluated by direct interview and clinical examination. In the final model of multivariate regression analysis, risk factors for hip fracture were direct hip impact (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 4.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.7–8.8), previous stroke (adjusted OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3–6.3), sideways fall (adjusted OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.6–3.9), functional mobility (a decrease of 1 SD; adjusted OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1–3.5), BMI (a decrease of 1 SD; adjusted OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1–2.8) and femoral neck BMD (a decrease of 1 SD; adjusted OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0–2.8). The effect of risk factors remained the same in different analysis sets, and adding or removing femoral neck BMD did not change other risk factors, though BMD was significantly correlated with functional mobility and BMI. Importantly, both sideways fall and direct hip impact are independent predictors of hip fracture. From these results, we suggest a preventive strategy of hip fracture in the elderly: besides the maintenance of BMD, keeping an appropriate body weight and maintaining a physically active lifestyle might be crucial. Received: 11 January 2001 / Accepted: 6 July 2001     

Unbalanced Diet to Lower Serum Cholesterol Level is a Risk Factor for Postmenopausal Osteoporosis and Distal Forearm Fracture

The purpose of this study was to assess whether dietary changes aimed at reducing serum cholesterol can increase the risk of osteoporosis (OP) and fracture. The study group consisted of 311 postmenopausal women with high serum cholesterol levels and following a diet low in dairy products (calcium intake estimated at less than 300 mg/day) for 27.3 ± 29.1 months. This sample was compared with a case–control group of 622 healthy postmenopausal women paired for age and age at menopause and with a calcium intake estimated at more than 1 g/day. Bone mineral density was measured at the lumbar spine by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Prevalence of OP was significantly higher in women with a low dairy calcium intake (42.1% vs 22.3%; p<0.0001), as was the number of Colles” fractures occurring after menopause (4.5% vs 1.6%; p = 0.008). Multiple logistic regression analyses demonstrated that a diet low in dairy calcium was a risk factor for OP (OR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.84–3.45) and Colles” fracture (OR = 2.72, 95% CI 1.18–6.26). In the low dairy calcium group, diet duration significantly influenced the risk of OP (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.01–1.25 for 1 year of diet). No differences in further risk factors for coronary heart disease were found between the groups, but the proportion of women physically active was lower in the women with high serum cholesterol levels. A diet that severely limits calcium intake from dairy products in an attempt to correct raised serum cholesterol levels is a risk factor for postmenopausal OP and Colles” fracture. Dietary intervention methods to lower serum cholesterol in postmenopausal women should maintain an adequate calcium intake by providing calcium from low-fat dairy products or calcium supplements. Received: 16 May 2000 / Accepted: 18 November 2000     

Quantitative Ultrasound and Bone Densitometry to Evaluate the Risk of Nonspine Fractures: A Prospective Study

The ability of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) to estimate the risk of osteoporotic fractures was evaluated in a prospective study over a mean time of 5.47 years in 254 postmenopausal women (mean age 58.06 ± 7.67 years). Baseline measurements of ultrasound transmission velocity (UTV) and bone mineral density (BMD) were taken at the distal radius (DR). UTV was also measured at the patella (P). Fifty nonspine fractures due to minor trauma were detected during annual check-ups with an incidence of 3.59/year. Fractures occurred in older women with a lower BMD and QUS. Using Cox regression analysis the relative risk (RR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in the unadjusted QUS and BMD measurements was: BMD-DR = 3.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57–8.09; UTV-DR = 5.35, 95% CI 2.07–13.83; UTV-P = 4.49, 95% CI 2.08–9.68. The relationship between BMD and QUS variables and fracture risk persisted after adjusting for potential confounders apart from previous fractures, giving the following RR: BMD-DR = 2.99, 95% CI 1.06–8.41; UTV-DR = 3.69, 95% CI 1.18–11.49; UTV-P = 3.89, 95% CI 1.53–9.90. Correcting also for previous fractures, only UTV-P remained an effective predictor of fracture risk even after QUS measurement correction for BMD. Wrist fractures were best related to BMD-DR (RR 7.33, 95% CI 1.43–37.50) and UTV-DR (RR 10.94, 95% CI 1.10–108.45), while hip and ankle fractures were significantly associated only with UTV-P (hip: RR 32.14, 95% CI 1.83–562.80; ankle: RR 17.60, 95% CI 1.78–173.79). The combined use of BMD and QUS is a better predictor of fracture risk than either technique used separately. Comparison of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves did not show differences in the ability of BMD and QUS to correctly distinguish fractures. In conclusion, QUS predicts fracture risk in osteoporotic women at least as well as BMD. UTV-DR and BMD-DR are good predictors of wrist fractures, while UTV-P is strongly related to hip and ankle fractures. QUS and BMD combined improve the diagnostic ability of each technique individually. Received: 27 April 1999 / Accepted: 3 December 1999     

Impact of Hip and Vertebral Fractures on Quality-Adjusted Life Years

The objective of the study was to estimate the impact of hip and vertebral fractures on quality of life in postmenopausal women using a preference-based health measure that is appropriate for economic evaluations and to investigate correlates of health outcome. Interviews to assess health-related quality of life, which also documented other health conditions and characteristics, were undertaken in women age 50 years and older without osteoporotic fractures compared with women with hip and/or vertebral fracture(s). Health status was characterized by self-reported physical limitations and the mental and physical component summary scores of the SF-36. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), which reflect each individual’s assessment of her overall health utility, were estimated with time tradeoff values. Regression methods were used to examine QALY correlates (e.g. time since fracture) for each fracture group and to estimate differences in QALYs between fracture and non-fracture subjects after accounting for other patient characteristics. Among 382 women ages 50–96 years, fracture subjects were significantly older, less likely to use hormone replacement therapy and more likely to report physical limitations than non-fracture subjects. On the QALY scale, where 1 represents perfect health and 0 represents death, mean QALY values were 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) among 114 women with one or more vertebral fractures and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.52, 0.74) among 67 with hip fracture compared with 0.91 (95% CI: 0.88, 0.94) among 201 women without fracture. No significant correlates of QALYs were identified among women with vertebral fracture alone. Among hip fracture subjects, time since hip fracture and presence of a vertebral fracture were significant correlates of QALYs. In multiple regression analyses, estimated QALY differences (fracture minus non-fracture subjects) ranged from –0.05 to –0.55 and were equivalent to losses of 20–58 days, 23–65 days and 115–202 days per year for vertebral fracture (p= 0.001), hip fracture (p= 0.009) and hip plus vertebral fracture (p<0.001) subjects, respectively, depending on age. Thus to adequately assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment, the negative impact of vertebral fractures on QALYs, even among women who have survived a hip fracture, must be considered. Received: 2 February 2001 / Accepted: 23 July 2001     

Survival after Hip Fracture: Short- and Long-Term Excess Mortality According to Age and Gender

The purpose of this study was to analyze the excess mortality after hip fracture and to reveal whether, and eventually when, the excess mortality vanished in different groups of age and gender. A population-based, prospective, matched-pair, cohort study among persons 50 years of age and older was conducted involving 1338 female and 487 male hip fracture patients with 11 086 and 8141 controls respectively. Occurrence of hip fracture and mortality were recorded from 1986 until 1995. We studied the excess mortality of the hip fracture patients versus controls by using Kaplan–Meier curves and extended Cox regression with hip fracture (yes/no) as time-dependent covariate. The male hip fracture patients had higher mortality than the women the first year after the injury, irrespective of age, both in absolute terms (31% and 17% respectively) and relative to their age-matched controls. The relative risk (RR) of dying within 1 year for hip fracture patients versus controls was 3.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1–5.2) for women and 4.2 (95% CI 2.8–6.4) for men below 75 years of age. The corresponding figures for persons 85 years and older were 1.6 (95% CI 1.2–2.0) for women and 3.1 (95% CI 2.2–4.2) for men. All groups of age and gender, except women 85 years and older, had a large and significant excess mortality lasting for many years after the hip fracture – at least 5–6 years for women below 75 years of age (RR = 3.2, 95% CI 1.9–5.6). The excess mortality after hip fracture for women 85 years and older had vanished after 3 months (RR = 1.0, 95% CI 0.8–1.1). When referring to the excess mortality after hip fracture it is therefore necessary to specify sex, age and time since injury. Received: 15 September 1998 / Accepted: 23 December 1998     

Proximal Femur Geometry To Detect and Distinguish Femoral Neck Fractures from Trochanteric Fractures in Postmenopausal Women

Some proximal femur geometry (PFG) parameters, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), have been reported to discriminate subjects with hip fracture. Relatively few studies have tested their ability to discriminate femoral neck fractures from those of the trochanter. To this end we performed a cross-sectional study in a population of 547 menopausal women over 69 years of age with femoral neck fractures (n= 88), trochanteric fractures (n= 93) or controls (n= 366). Hip axis length (HAL), neck–shaft angle (NSA), femoral neck diameter (FND) and femoral shaft diameter (FSD) were measured by DXA, as well as the bone mineral density (BMD) of the nonfractured hip at the femoral neck, trochanter and Ward’s triangle. In fractured subjects, BMD was lower at each measurement site. HAL was longer and NSA wider in those with femoral neck fractures. With logistic regression the age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in BMD was significantly associated at each measurement site with femoral neck fracture (femoral neck BMD: OR 1.9, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.4–2.5; trochanter BMD: OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2–2.0; Ward’s triangle BMD: OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3–2.2) and trochanteric fracture (femoral neck BMD: OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9–3.6; trochanter BMD: OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.2–4.1; Ward’s triangle BMD: OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4–2.3). Age-adjusted OR for 1 SD increases in NSA (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.7–2.8) and HAL (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.6) was significantly associated with the fracture risk only for femoral neck fracture. In the best predictive model the strongest predictors were site-matched BMD for both fracture types and NSA for neck fracture. Trochanteric BMD had the greatest area (0.78, standard error (SE) 0.02) under the receiver operating characteristic curve in trochanteric fractures, whereas for NSA (0.72, SE 0.03) this area was greatest in femoral neck fractures. These results confirm the association of BMD with proximal femur fracture and support the evidence that PFG plays a significant role only in neck fracture prediction, since NSA is the best predictive parameter among those tested. Received: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 1 August 2001     

Forearm Fractures as Predictors of Subsequent Osteoporotic Fractures

To assess the ability of distal forearm fractures to predict future fractures, we conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study among the 1288 residents (243 men, 1045 women) of Rochester, Minnesota age 35 years or older who experienced their first distal forearm fracture in 1975–94. During 9664 person-years of follow-up, 548 patients experienced 1109 subsequent fractures, excluding 195 that occurred on the same day as the index forearm fracture. The cumulative incidence of any subsequent fracture was 55% by 10 years and 80% by 20 years following the initial distal forearm fracture. Compared to expected fracture rates in the community, the risk of a hip fracture following the index forearm fracture was increased 1.4-fold in women (95% CI, 1.1–1.8) and 2.7-fold in men (95% CI, 0.98–5.8). In women, the risk of hip fracture differed by age, as we had found in a previous study. Women over age 70 had a 1.6-fold increase (95% CI, 1.2–2.0) in subsequent hip fracture risk whereas women who sustained their first forearm fracture before age 70 years did not have significantly increased risk. By contrast, vertebral fractures were significantly increased at all ages, with a 5.2-fold increase (95% CI, 4.5–5.9) in risk among women and a 10.7-fold increase (95% CI, 6.7–16.3) among men following a first distal forearm fracture. The increased risk in men suggests that a sentinel forearm fracture should not be ignored. Among the women, we also found a missed opportunity for intervention as hormone replacement therapy was underutilized. Received: 8 May 1998 / Accepted: 16 October 1998     

Femoral Neck and Intertrochanteric Fractures Have Different Risk Factors: A Prospective Study

The aim of this study was to determine whether both types of hip fracture, femoral neck and intertrochanteric, have similar risk factors. A prospective cohort study was carried out on community-dwelling elderly women in four areas of the United States: Baltimore, MD; Pittsburgh, PA; Minneapolis, MN and Portland, OR. The participants were 9704 Caucasian women, 65 years and older, of whom 279 had fractured their femoral neck and 222 had fractured their trochanteric region of the proximal femur. The predictors used were the bone mass of the calcaneus and proximal femur, anthropometry, history of fracture (family and personal), medication use, functional status, physical activity and visual function. The main outcome measures were femoral neck and intertrochanteric fractures occurring during an average of 8 years of follow-up. In multivariate proportional hazards models, several risk factors increased the risk of both types of hip fracture; including femoral neck bone density and increased functional difficulty. In hazard regression models that directly compared risk factors for the two types of hip fracture, calcaneal bone mineral density (BMD) predicted femoral neck fractures more strongly than intertrochanteric fractures (OR = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.02–1.31). Steroid use and impaired functional status also predicted femoral neck fractures instead of intertrochanteric fractures. Poor health status (OR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.55–1.00) predicted intertrochanteric fractures more strongly than femoral neck fractures. We conclude that femoral neck fractures are largely predicted by BMD and poor functional ability while aging and poor health status predispose to intertrochanteric fractures. Received: 8 February 2000 / Accepted: 10 June 2000     

DXA of the Hip and Heel Ultrasound but not Densitometry of the Fingers Can Discriminate Female Hip Fracture Patients from Controls: A Comparison Between Four Different Methods

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) of the proximal femur and in more recent years quantitative ultrasound (QUS) of the heel are the most established methods for assessing hip fracture risk. Measurement of the fingers offers a new approach. We performed DXA of the proximal femur, QUS of the heel and fingers, and radiographic absorptiometry (RA) of the fingers in 87 non-institutionalized women, 65–85 years of age, with a first hip fracture and compared them with 195 randomly selected age-matched controls. Bone mineral density (BMD) of the femoral neck and heel Stiffness Index were significantly lower among cases than among controls (by 15% and 17%, respectively; p<0.0001), whereas no significant differences were found for finger measurements. When applying the WHO criterion of osteoporosis, 62–98% of the patients were classified as osteoporotic, compared with 19–85% of the controls, depending on method and site. The risks of hip fracture, estimated as odds ratios for every 1 SD reduction in femoral neck BMD, heel Stiffness Index, finger QUS and finger RA, were: 3.6 (95% CI 2.4–5.5), 3.4 (95% CI 2.2–5.0), 1.0 (95% CI 0.7–1.3) and 1.2 (95% CI 0.8–1.6), respectively. Compared with women with normal BMD of the femoral neck, those classified as osteopenic had an odds ratio of hip fracture of 14 (95% CI 2-110), whereas those classified as osteoporotic had an odds ratio of 63 (95% CI 8–501). We conclude that hip DXA and heel QUS have similar capacities to discriminate the risk of a first hip fracture, whereas QUS and RA of the phalanges seem inferior techniques for differentiating female hip fracture patients from controls. Received: 10 March 2000 / Accepted: 21 September 2000     

Femoral Bone Mineral Density, Neck-Shaft Angle and Mean Femoral Neck Width as Predictors of Hip Fracture in Men and Women

The effect of femoral bone mineral density (BMD) and several parameters of femoral neck geometry (hip axis length, neck–shaft angle and mean femoral neck width) on hip fracture risk in a Spanish population was assessed in a cross-sectional study. All parameters were determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. There were 411 patients (116 men, 295 women; aged 60–90 years) with hip fractures in whom measurements were taken in the contralateral hip. Controls were 545 persons (235 men, 310 women; aged 60–90 years) who participated in a previous study on BMD in a healthy Spanish population. Femoral neck BMD was significantly lower, and neck–shaft angle and mean femoral neck width significantly higher, in fracture cases than in controls. The logistic regression analysis adjusted by age, height and weight showed that a decrease of 1 standard deviation (SD) in femoral neck BMD was associated with an odds ratio of hip fracture of 4.52 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.93 to 6.96] in men and 4.45 (95% CI 3.11 to 6.36) in women; an increase of 1 SD in neck–shaft angle of 2.45 (95% CI 1.73 to 3.45) in men and 3.48 (95% CI 2.61 to 4.65) in women; and an increase of 1 SD in mean femoral neck width of 2.15 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.98) in men and 2.40 (95% CI 1.79 to 3.22) in women. The use of a combination of femoral BMD and geometric parameters of the femoral neck except for hip axis length may improve hip fracture risk prediction allowing a better therapeutic strategy for hip fracture prevention. Received: 16 September 1999 / Accepted: 22 February 2000     

Weight Loss from Maximum Body Weight among Middle-Aged and Older White Women and the Risk of Hip Fracture: The NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study

Although weight loss increases bone loss and hip fracture risk in older women, little is known about the relation between weight loss in middle-aged women and subsequent hip fracture risk. The objective of this study was to determine the association between weight loss from reported maximum body weight in middle-aged and older women and the risk of hip fracture. Data were from a nationally representative sample of 2180 community-dwelling white women aged 50–74 years from the Epidemiologic Follow-up Study of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHEFS). In this prospective cohort study, incident hip fracture was ascertained during 22 years of follow-up. The adjusted relative risks associated with weight loss of 10% or more from maximum body weight were elevated for both middle-aged (RR 2.54; 95% CI 1.10–5.86) and older women (RR 2.04; 95% CI 1.37–3.04). For both ages combined, women in the lowest tertile of body mass index at maximum who lost 10% or more of weight had the highest risk of hip fracture (RR 2.37; 95% CI 1.32–4.27). Weight loss from maximum reported body weight in women aged 50–64 years and 65–74 years increased their risk of hip fracture, especially among those who were relatively thin. Weight loss of 10% or more from maximum weight among both middle-aged and older women is an important indicator of hip fracture risk. Received: 13 August 1999 / Accepted: 26 April 2000     

A Population-Based Study of Fracture Incidence in Southern Tasmania: Lifetime Fracture Risk and Evidence for Geographic Variations within the Same Country

Symptomatic fractures are a significant problem in terms of both morbidity and financial cost. Marked variation in both total and site-specific fracture incidence has been documented internationally but there is limited within-country data. This prospective population-based study documented the incidence of all symptomatic fractures occurring from July 1, 1997 to June 30, 1999 in adults ≥50 years of age resident in Southern Tasmania (total population ≥50 years: 64 688). Fractures were ascertained by reviewing reports from all the radiology providers within the area. There were 701 fractures in men and 1309 fractures in women. The corresponding fracture incidence in men and women was 1248 and 1916 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. Residual lifetime fracture risk in a person aged 50 years was 27% for men and 44% for women with fractures other than hip fractures constituting the majority of symptomatic fracture events. These fracture risk estimates remained remarkably constant with increasing age. In comparison to Geelong, there were significantly lower hip fracture rates (males: RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.45–0.76; females: RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.53–0.71) but significantly higher distal forearm fractures (males: RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.10–3.78; females: RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.11–1.55) and total fractures in men (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.17–1.46) but not women (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.98–1.13). In contrast, Southern Tasmania had lower age-standardized rates of all fractures compared with Dubbo (RR 0.28–0.79). In conclusion, this study provides compelling evidence that fracture incidence varies between different geographic sites within the same country, which has important implications for health planning. In addition, the combination of high residual fracture risk and short life expectancy in elderly subjects suggests fracture prevention will be most cost-effective in later life. Received: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 16 August 2000     

Prevalent Vertebral Deformity Predicts Incident Hip though not distal Forearm Fracture: Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study

The presence of a vertebral deformity increases the risk of subsequent spinal deformities. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether the presence of vertebral deformity predicts incident hip and other limb fractures. Six thousand three hundred and forty-four men and 6788 women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers and followed prospectively for a median of 3 years. All subjects had radiographs performed at baseline and the presence of vertebral deformity was assessed using established morphometric methods. Incident limb fractures which occurred during the follow- up period were ascertained by annual postal questionnaire and confirmed by radiographs, review of medical records and personal interview. During a total of 40 348 person-years of follow-up, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture. Amongst the women, after adjustment for age, prevalent vertebral deformity was a strong predictor of incident hip fracture, (rate ratio (RR) = 4.5; 95% CI 2.1–9.4) and a weak predictor of ‘other’ limb fractures (RR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1–2.4), though not distal forearm fracture (RR = 1.0; 95% CI 0.6–1.6). The predictive risk increased with increasing number of prevalent deformities, particularly for subsequent hip fracture: for two or more deformities, RR = 7.2 (95% CI 3.0–17.3). Amongst men, vertebral deformity was not associated with an increased risk of incident limb fracture though there was a nonsignificant trend toward an increased risk of hip fracture with increasing number of deformities. In summary, prevalent radiographic vertebral deformities in women are a strong predictor of hip fracture, and to a lesser extent humerus and ‘other’ limb fractures; however, they do not predict distal forearm fractures. Received: 23 February 2000 / Accepted: 11 August 2000     

Association Between Colles’ Fracture and Low Bone Mass: Age-Based Differences in Postmenopausal Women

Colles’ fracture (CF) in postmenopausal women has been linked to low bone mass at the lumbar spine and hip. However, the diverse methodological approaches of previous studies make the results difficult to compare and thus the implications of CF in osteoporosis daily clinical practice are not clear. We explored the association between CF and low bone mineral density (BMD) in an incident case-control study in 58 postmenopausal Spanish women aged 45–80 years with recent CF and in 83 population-based controls of the same age range. The BMD of ultradistal distal forearm, lumbar spine and hip was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and WHO criteria were used to define osteoporosis and osteopenia. BMD was significantly lower in cases for all three areas (p<0.001). Osteoporosis was more prevalent in cases than controls in the wrist (60% vs. 35%, p<0.001), lumbar spine (47% vs. 20%, p<0.005) and hip (19% vs. 6%, p<0.005). After adjusting for age, menopausal status and body mass index, osteoporosis and osteopenia remained significantly associated with CF only in women aged 65 years or less (ultradistal forearm OR 5.7 (95% CI 1.2–27.2), lumbar spine OR 3.9 (95% CI 1.1–14.3)). We conclude that CF in postmenopausal women aged 65 or less may be used as a sentinel finding to identify patients with generalized osteoporosis. Additionally, 70% of all CF patients regardless of their age had low bone mass (T-score<−1SD) in any studied site. Received: 3 December 2001 / Accepted: 22 May 2002     

Hip Fracture Incidence Rates in Singapore 1991–1998

In this population-based study, we determined the incidence rates of hip fracture among Singapore residents aged 50 years and above. Information was obtained from a centralized database system which captured admissions with the primary diagnosis of a closed hip fracture (ICD-9 codes 820, 820.0, 820.2 and 820.8, n= 12 927) from all health care establishments in the country from 1991 to 1998 inclusive. After removing duplicates, hospital transfers, readmissions and non-acute care admissions, the total number of hip fractures was 9406. Based on the national population census 1990 (n= 464 100) and yearly population estimates, the age-adjusted hip fracture rates for 1991–1998 (per 100 000) were 152 in men and 402 in women. This was 1.5 and over 5 times higher than corresponding rates in the 1960s. From 1991 to 1998, these hip fracture rates tended to increase by 0.7% annually in men and by 1.2% annually in women. Among the three major racial groups, in men, the Chinese had significantly higher age-adjusted hip fracture rates (per 100 000): 168 (95% confidence interval (CI) 158–178) compared with 128 (95% CI 105–152) for Indians and 71 (95% CI 54–88) for Malays. A similar pattern occurred in women: 410 (95% CI 395–425), for Chinese compared with 361 (95% CI 290–432) for Indians and 264 (95% CI 225–303) for Malays. Since the 1960s, the main increases in hip fracture rates have been seen in the Chinese and Malays, with the rates in Indians appearing to decrease. Hip fracture incidence rates in Singapore have risen rapidly over the past 30–40 years, particularly in women, and are now among the highest in Asia. Significant racial differences in hip fracture rates occur within the same community. Time trends in hip fracture rates differed between races. Received: 9 March 2000 / Accepted: 5 September 2000