Insulin resistance as an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease

Insulin resistance is closely associated with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular mortality in the general population. Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are known to have insulin resistance, advanced atherosclerosis, and a high cardiovascular mortality rate. We evaluated whether insulin resistance is a predictor of cardiovascular death in a cohort of ESRD. A prospective observational cohort study was performed in 183 nondiabetic patients with ESRD treated with maintenance hemodialysis. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the homeostasis model assessment method (HOMA-IR) using fasting glucose and insulin levels at baseline, and the cohort was followed for a mean period of 67 mo. Forty-nine deaths were recorded, including 22 cardiovascular deaths. Cumulative incidence of cardiovascular death by Kaplan-Meier estimation was significantly different between subjects in the top tertile of HOMA-IR (1.40 to 4.59) and those in the lower tertiles of HOMA-IR (0.28 to 1.39), and the hazard ratio (HR) was 2.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12 to 6.01; P = 0.026) in the univariate Cox proportional hazards model. In multivariate Cox models, the positive association between HOMA-IR and cardiovascular mortality remained significant (HR, 4.60; 95% CI, 1.83 to 11.55; P = 0.001) and independent of age, C-reactive protein, and presence of preexisting vascular complications. Further analyses showed that the effect of HOMA-IR on cardiovascular mortality was independent of body mass index, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. In contrast, HOMA-IR did not show such a significant association with noncardiovascular mortality. These results indicate that insulin resistance is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.     

Pulmonary hypertension as an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality and events in hemodialysis patients

Background

Hemodialysis patients are at an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. Pulmonary hypertension (PH) has been recently reported as a new entity and unrecognized threat in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, whether PH predicts CV mortality and events in this population remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to determine the value of PH in predicting CV mortality and events in a prospective cohort of MHD patients.

Methods

We studied 278 MHD patients (98 with and 180 without PH) in Guangdong General Hospital Blood Purification Center, Guangzhou, China. All patients had been followed up for 2 years, and in survival analysis, we considered time to death or first cardiovascular event. The endpoints were all-cause mortality, CV mortality and CV events. PH was defined as systolic pulmonary artery pressure (SPAP) ≥ 35 mmHg as determined by Doppler echocardiographic evaluation.

Results

Of the 278 MHD patients, 53 (19.1 %) died as a result of all causes, 28 (10.1 %) died from CV events (52.8 % of causes of death), and 87 (31.3 %) had new-onset CV events. The survival curve showed that all-cause and CV mortality and new-onset CV events were higher in PH group than the non-PH group. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality, CV mortality and CV events was 1.85 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.03–3.34], 2.36 (95 % CI 1.05–5.31) and 2.27 (95 % CI 1.44–3.58), respectively.

Conclusions

Our study showed that PH was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality and CV mortality and events in MHD patients. We suggest to evaluate SPAP in MHD patients in order to stratify risk of death and CV events.     

Acquired hypernatraemia is an independent predictor of mortality in critically ill patients

This study reports the incidence and associated mortality of acquired hypernatraemia (Na > 150 mmol.l⁻¹) in a general medical/surgical intensive care unit. Patients admitted over a 5-year period with normal sodium values were eligible for inclusion; exclusions were made for burn/neurosurgical diagnoses and for hypertonic saline therapy. From 3475 admissions (3317 patients), 266 (7.7%) episodes of hypernatraemia were observed. Hospital mortality was 33.5% in the hypernatraemic group and 7.7% in the normonatraemic group (p < 0.001). Acquired hypernatraemia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.37–2.82, p < 0.001). Intermediate sodium levels (145–150 mmol.l⁻¹) were associated with increased mortality (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.02–1.98). Uncorrected sodium at discharge (p = 0.001) and peak sodium (p = 0.001) were better predictors of mortality than time to onset (p = 0.71) and duration of hypernatraemia (p = 1.0). Hypernatraemia avoidance is justified, but determinants of hypernatraemia and benefits of targeted treatment strategies require further elucidation.     

Is malnutrition an independent predictor of mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients?

BACKGROUND: It has been established that malnutrition (MN) is a strong predictor of mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. However, MN is often the consequence of co-morbid diseases (CMD), and the confounding effect of CMD on mortality in malnourished PD patients has not been clearly defined. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that MN without CMD may not be associated with significant mortality. This study was, therefore, designed to dissociate the influence of CMD on mortality in PD patients from that of MN. METHODS: A total of 153 consecutive PD patients (88 males, mean age 53.3 +/- 12.3 years) were included in this study. All underwent initial assessment of nutrition, CMD survey and peritoneal equilibration test at a mean of 7 days (range 3-24 days) after beginning PD. Nutritional status was assessed by subjective global assessment (SGA) and other methods. CMD surveyed included diabetes, cardiovascular disease, liver disease and respiratory disease, and co-morbidity was graded by Davies index. Based on the nutritional status as assessed by SGA and presence of CMD, patients were divided into four groups; MN with (n = 50) or without (n = 14) CMD, and normal nutrition (NN) with (n = 53) or without (n = 36) CMD. RESULTS: Of 153 patients, 64 (41.8%) were malnourished and 103 (67.3%) had one or more CMD. Of the 103 patients with CMD, 48.5% had MN, and 78% of the 64 patients with MN had CMD. Patients with MN and CMD were older and had lower initial serum albumin (sAlb), serum creatinine, fat-free oedema-free body mass, percentage lean body mass and SGA score and higher initial dialysate/plasma creatinine concentration ratio at 4 h dwell (D4/P4 Cr) and co-morbidity score. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, 2-year patient survival was significantly lower in patients with MN and CMD than in the other groups (63.1, 90.9, 87.5 and 96.4% for subgroups with both MN and CMD, MN without CMD, NN with CMD and NN without CMD, respectively, P = 0.001). On Cox proportional hazards analysis, age, co-morbidity score and D4/P4 Cr, but not SGA score or sAlb concentration, were found to be independent risk factors for mortality. After adjustment for age, gender, sAlb, residual renal function and D4/P4 Cr, patients with both MN and CMD had a risk of mortality that was 3.3 times that of patients with MN but without CMD (risk ratio 9.01 vs 2.72). Patients with MN without CMD had a risk ratio of 2.72 compared with NN without CMD, but this difference was not statistically significant. In patients with NN and CMD, the risk ratio for mortality was five times that of patients with NN without CMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that there is a high prevalence of MN and CMD at the start of PD and that the combined presence of CMD and MN is associated with high mortality. MN alone is associated with a statistically insignificant increase in mortality. This underlines the importance of CMD as a cause of poor clinical outcome in malnourished PD patients. However, in the present study, a relatively limited number of patients with MN but without CMD were analysed and a type two error therefore cannot be excluded.     

International normalised ratio as an independent predictor of mortality in limb necrotising fasciitis with sepsis

IntroductionNecrotising fasciitis with sepsis is a life threatening disease. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between international normalised ratio (INR) and mortality in sepsis patients with necrotising fasciitis.MethodsA retrospective review was undertaken of 106 patients suffering from necrotising fasciitis with sepsis between November 2007 and December 2016. Data on comorbidities, clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, causative microbiological organisms, APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) score and outcomes were extracted. Logistic regression was carried out to examine the factors affecting mortality.ResultsForty patients (37.7%) died. There was no significant difference in the white blood count (WBC) for the survivor and non-survivor groups. Non-survivors had a lower mean oxygenation index (OI) (288.7mmHg vs 329.4mmHg, p=0.032) and platelet count (PC) (139.5 vs 214.8 x 10⁹/l, p=0.028), and a higher mean INR (1.9 vs 1.3, p=0.000), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) (54.6 vs 44.2 seconds, p=0.005) and serum creatinine (2.3mg/dl vs 1.4mg/dl, p=0.007). Mortality in patients with INR >1.5 was significantly higher than in those with INR <1.5 when all risk factors (WBC, PC, OI, INR, APTT, creatinine) were considered (odds ratio: 4.414, 95% confidence interval: 1.263–15.428, p=0.020). Even after adjusting for age, sex, bacteraemia, diabetes and hepatic disorders, the data still exhibited elevated mortality for patients with INR >1.5 (odds ratio: 5.600, 95% confidence interval: 1.415–22.166, p=0.014).ConclusionsINR is a significant independent predictor of mortality in sepsis patients diagnosed with necrotising fasciitis.     

Is body temperature an independent predictor of mortality in hip fracture patients?

IntroductionAdmission body temperature is a critical parameter in all trauma patients. Low admission temperature is strongly associated with adverse outcomes. We have previously shown, in a prospective study that low admission body temperature is common and associated with high mortality in hip fracture patients (Uzoigwe et al., 2014). However, no previous studies have evaluated whether admission temperature is an independent predictor of mortality in hip fracture patients after adjustment for the 7 recognised independent prognostic indicators (Maxwell et al., 2008).MethodsWe retrospectively collated data on all patients presenting to our institution between June 2011 and February 2013 with a hip fracture. This included patients involved in the original prospective study (Uzoigwe et al., 2014). Admission tympanic temperature, measured on initial presentation at triage, was recorded. The prognosticators of age, gender, source of admission, abbreviated mental test score, haemoglobin, co-morbid disease and the presence or absence of malignancy were also recorded. Using multiple logistic regression, adjustment was made for these potentially confounding prognostic indicators of 30-day mortality, to determine if admission low body temperature were independently linked to mortality.Results1066 patients were included. 781 patients, involved in the original prospective study (Uzoigwe et al., 2014), presented in the relevant time frame and were included in the retrospective study. The mean age was 81. There were 273 (26%) men and 793 (74%) women. 407 (38%) had low body temperature (<36.5 °C). Adjustment was made for age, gender, source of admission, abbreviated mental test score, haemoglobin, co-morbid disease and the presence or absence of malignancy. Those with low body temperature had an adjusted odds ratio of 30-day mortality that was 2.1 times that of the euthermic (36.5–37.5 °C).ConclusionsLow body temperature is strongly and independently associated with 30-day mortality in hip fracture patients.     

Addition of vasopressin to norepinephrine as independent predictor of mortality in patients with refractory septic shock: an observational study

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of 28-day mortality among patients with refractory septic shock treated with norepinephrine with or without vasopressin. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: A 1,200-bed academic medical center. PATIENTS: One hundred thirty-seven patients with septic shock treated with norepinephrine with or without vasopressin. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The 28-day mortality rate was 37.2% (n = 51). By multivariate analysis, significant predictors of death were norepinephrine plus vasopressin administration (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 13.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.47, 30.08; p = 0.001), lack of goal-directed fluid administration during initial resuscitation (AOR 15.82; 95% CI 6.16, 40.61; p = 0.003), inappropriate initial antimicrobial therapy (AOR 8.95; 95% CI 2.93, 27.33; p = 0.05), and higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (AOR 1.14; 95% CI 1.07, 1.21; p = 0.033). Patients who received norepinephrine plus vasopressin (n = 68) had a significantly higher mortality rate than patients managed with norepinephrine alone (n = 69) 28 days after the initiation of vasopressors (54.4% vs. 20.3%; p < 0.001). This finding was confirmed in patients matched optimally across treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found an association between the use of norepinephrine plus vasopressin and 28-day mortality in refractory septic shock. In view of its known mechanism of action, vasopressin contributed to this excess mortality. Further recommendations regarding the use of vasopressin await the results of large randomized trials evaluating its efficacy and safety for septic shock.     

Incidental renal artery stenosis is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with peripheral vascular disease

In patients with peripheral vascular disease (PVD), mortality is high and renal artery stenosis (RAS) is a frequent incidental finding. RAS carries a high risk for mortality, but whether incidentally discovered RAS is a risk factor for mortality is unknown. The prognostic impact of incidental RAS for mortality was studied in 550 consecutive patients who underwent intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography for PVD in a single center between 1997 and 2000. In 491 patients (336 men, 155 women; mean follow-up 3.8 +/- 1.9 yr), the renal arteries were visualized and follow-up data were available. RAS (diameter reduction > 50%) was present in 26% of the patients. Mortality in the RAS group was 59 versus 28% in the non-RAS group (odds ratio 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.5 to 5.7; P < 0.0001). Diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, history of PVD, stroke, and hypertension were more frequent in the RAS group; age was higher and GFR was lower in the RAS group. Therefore, RAS was associated with elevated mortality and increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Cox regression analysis showed that RAS was an independent predictor for mortality (P = 0.005), along with age, diabetes, smoking, previous myocardial infarction, history of PVD, and stroke. In patients who were evaluated for PVD by digital subtraction angiography, mortality was high. Incidental RAS was a frequent finding and an independent predictor for mortality. Whether RAS is a marker for or, alternatively, a mediator of the poor prognosis and whether prognosis can be improved by specific intervention should be the subject of future prospective studies.     

Interleukin-6 is an independent predictor of mortality in patients starting dialysis treatment.

BACKGROUND: The mortality rate is high among end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, and recent evidence suggests that this may be linked to inflammation. The activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and its soluble receptor (sIL-6R) are markedly up-regulated in ESRD patients, and plasma IL-6 levels predict outcome in haemodialysis (HD) patients. However, it has not been established whether elevated plasma IL-6 also predicts outcome in ESRD patients treated by peritoneal dialysis (PD), and how it relates to the data on HD patients. The predictive power of sIL-6R levels on outcome is also unknown in this patient population. METHODS: To determine whether or not plasma IL-6 and sIL-6R predict patient survival, we studied 173 ESRD patients (62% males, 53+/-1 years of age) near the initiation of dialysis treatment (99 PD, 74 HD patients). The patients were followed for a mean period of 3.1+/-0.1 years (range 0.1-7.1 years) and were stratified at the start of dialysis treatment according to age, gender, presence of cardiovascular disease, malnutrition (determined by subjective global assessment), diabetes mellitus, and IL-6 and sIL-6R plasma levels. RESULTS: A significantly different (P<0.0001) mortality rate was observed in different groups when patients were divided into quartiles according to IL-6 levels. Furthermore, the same differences were observed, less notably however, for sIL-6R (P<0.05). When patients were stratified according to IL-6 quartiles and analysed separately according to the different initial treatment groups, a similar profile of survival was observed for PD (P<0.01) and HD (P<0.05) patients. In a Cox proportional hazard model adjusting for the impact of age, malnutrition, diabetes mellitus and male gender, log IL-6 values were independently associated with poor outcome (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrates that the strong predictive value of elevated IL-6 levels for poor outcome in ESRD patients is similar in both HD and PD patients starting treatment.     

Infant spirometry as a predictor of lung function at early childhood in cystic fibrosis patients

BackgroundInfant pulmonary function testing using the raised volume rapid thoracoabdominal compression (RVRTC) technique requires sedation and is time consuming. Many cystic fibrosis (CF) centers do not have access to equipment and the utility of routine testing remains to be determined. We aimed to assess whether RVRTC tests performed during infancy predict spirometry at early school age.MethodsThe RVRTC-based forced expiratory flow measures in infants were compared to the first adequately performed spirometry at school age. All tests were carried out during routine clinic visits and expressed as age related z-scores; only test occasions where patients were considered stable were included in the analysis.Results47 patients had useable infant RVRTC as well as matching school age spirometry data. There was weak correlation between infant FEV_0.5 and early school age FEV₁ (R = 0.29, p = 0.05). Four infants had significantly low zFEV_0.5 (zFEV_0.5 < -1.96), of which one of those remained under that limit at childhood. Changes in spirometry between infancy and early childhood were negatively correlated to baseline FEV_0.5 (R = 0.61 p<0.001) reflecting that the change was driven by where individuals started off with. There was no difference in clinical characteristics between those improving, those with stable or deteriorating in lung function.ConclusionInfant RVRTC measures were not predictive of pulmonary function in early school age, likely due to the high proportion of measures of forced expiratory flows within the normal range at both time points.     

Self harm is an independent predictor of mortality in trauma and burns patients admitted to ICU

BackgroundPatients with mental illness or depression may sustain self-inflicted injuries that require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). It is unknown whether the intent of injury leads to a greater likelihood of dying over and above the severity of the initial injury.Given the economic and societal burden of injury of self-harm, we designed this study to compare hospital outcomes of intentionally injured patients presenting to a tertiary ICU compared to unintentional injuries.MethodsThe regional trauma database was interrogated to produce two datasets that included all adult trauma patients admitted to the Alfred Intensive Care Unit between 01/07/2002 and 30/06/2007. The first included patients that sustained intentional injuries, the second comprised un-intentional injuries and acted as a control group. Logistic regression was used to model factors associated with mortality.ResultsIntentionally injured patients made up 4.17% of the total burns, blunt and penetrating trauma admissions to the Alfred ICU over the five-year study period. There was a trend towards higher mortality overall and in all subgroups of patients with intentional injuries when compared to those with un-intentional mechanisms of injury. After adjusting for injury severity and age, a mechanism of injury involving intentional injury was independently associated with a doubling of the odds of death.ConclusionsOur study is the first paper in the literature to describe an increased the risk of death within a group of patients admitted to a trauma and burns ICU following deliberate self-harm.