Correlation between Glasgow coma score components and survival in patients with traumatic brain injury

Background

The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score is used in the initial evaluation of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI); however, the determination of an accurate score is not possible in all clinical situations. Our aim is to determine if the individual components of the GCS score, or combinations of them, are useful in predicting mortality in patients with TBI.

Methods

The components of the GCS score and the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were analyzed from 27,625 cases of TBI in Taiwan.

Results

The relationship between the survival rate and certain eye (E), motor (M) and verbal (V) score combinations for GCS scores of 6, 11, 12 and 13 were statistically significant. The areas under ROC curve of E + V, M + V and M alone were 0.904, 0.903 and 0.900, respectively, representing the 3 most precise combinations for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve for the complete GCS score (E + M + V) was 0.885. Patients with lower E, M and V score respectively, and lower complete GCS scores had higher hazard of death than those with the highest scores.

Conclusion

The results of this study indicate that the 3 fundamental elements comprising the Glasgow coma scale, E, M, and V individually, and in certain combinations are predictive of the survival of TBI patients. This observation is clinically useful when evaluating TBI patients in whom a complete GCS score cannot be obtained.     

Predicting inpatient mortality for pediatric trauma patients with blunt injuries: a better alternative

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify significant independent predictors of inpatient mortality rates for pediatric victims of blunt trauma and to develop a formula for predicting the probability of inpatient mortality for these patients. METHODS: Emergency department and inpatient data from 2,923 pediatric victims of blunt injury in the New York State Trauma Registry in 1994 and 1995 were used to explore the relationship between patient risk factors and mortality rate. A stepwise logistic regression model with P<.05 was developed using survival status asthe dependent variable. Independent variables included are elements of the Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS), additional elements from the Revised Trauma Score (RTS), the motor response and eye opening components of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), age-specific systolic blood pressure, the AVPU score, and 2 measures of anatomic injury severity (the Injury Severity Score [ISS] and the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision-based Injury Severity Score [ICISS]). RESULTS: The only significant independent predictors of severity that emerged were the ICISS, no motor response (best motor response = 1) from the GCS, and the unresponsive component from the AVPU score. The statistical model exhibited an excellent fit (C statistic = .964). The specificity associated with the prediction of inpatient mortality rate based on the presence of 1 or more of these risk factors was .926, and the sensitivity was .944. CONCLUSION: The best independent predictors of inpatient mortality rate for pediatric trauma patients with blunt injuries include variables not specifically contained in the PTS or the RTS: ICISS, no motor response (best motor response = 1) from the GCS, and the unresponsive component of the AVPU score.     

Usefulness of the abbreviated injury score and the injury severity score in comparison to the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND: Assessment of injury severity is important in the management of patients with brain trauma. We aimed to analyze the usefulness of the head abbreviated injury score (AIS), the injury severity score (ISS), and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) as measures of injury severity and predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI). METHODS: Data were prospectively collected from 410 patients with TBI. AIS, ISS, and GCS were recorded at admission. Subjects' outcomes after TBI were measured using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) at 12 months postinjury. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: Outcome information was obtained from 270 patients (66%). ISS was the best predictor of GOS-E (rs = -0.341, p < 0.001), followed by GCS score (rs = 0.227, p < 0.001), and head AIS (rs = -0.222, p < 0.001). When considered in combination, GCS score and ISS modestly improved the correlation with GOS-E (R = 0.335, p < 0.001). The combination of GCS score and head AIS had a similar effect (R = 0.275, p < 0.001). Correlations were stronger from patients 8). CONCLUSIONS: GCS score, AIS, and ISS are weakly correlated with 12-month outcome. However, anatomic measures modestly outperform GCS as predictors of GOS-E. The combination of GCS and AIS/ISS correlate with outcome better than do any of the three measures alone. Results support the addition of anatomic measures such as AIS and ISS in clinical studies of TBI. Additionally, most of the variance in outcome is not accounted for by currently available measures of injury severity.     

Comparing logistic models based on modified GCS motor component with other prognostic tools in prediction of mortality: results of study in 7226 trauma patients

A simple reproducible and sensitive prognostic trauma tool is still needed. In this article we have introduced modified GCS motor response (MGMR) and evaluated the performance of logistic models based on this variable. The records of 8452 trauma patients admitted to major hospitals of Tehran from 1999 to 2000 were analysed. 7226 records with known outcome were included in our study. Logistic models based on outcome (death versus survival) as a dependent variable and Injury Severity Score (ISS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), GCS motor component (GMR) and MGMR (following command [=2], movement but not following [=1] command and without movement [=0]) were compared based on their accuracy and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The accuracy of the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS), RTS, GCS, GMR and MGMR models were almost the same. Considering both the area under the ROC curve and accuracy, the age included MGMR model was also comparable with other age included models (RTS+age, GCS+age, GMR+age). We concluded that although in some situations we need more sophisticated models, should our results be reproducible in other populations, MGMR (with or without age added) model may be of considerable practical value.     

Manual vital signs reliably predict need for life-saving interventions in trauma patients

OBJECTIVE: Various types of diagnostic and monitoring techniques are available in the prehospital environment. It is unclear how increasing complexity of diagnostic equipment improves the ability to predict the need for a life-saving intervention (LSI). In this study, we determined whether the addition of diagnostic equipment improved the predictive power of vital signs and scores obtained only by physical examination. METHODS: Institutional review board approval was obtained for an analysis of 793 prehospital trauma patient records collected during helicopter transport by Emergency Medical Services personnel. Exclusion of severe head injuries and patients with incomplete data resulted in 381 patients available for analysis. Data sets were classified on the basis of the instrumentation requirements for capturing the given measurements and were defined by three groups: Group 1, vital signs obtained with no equipment (radial, femoral, and carotid pulse character; capillary refill; motor and verbal components of the Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS]); Group 2, Group 1 plus eye component of the GCS and pulse oximetry (Spo(2)); and Group 3, Group 2 plus fully automated noninvasive blood pressure measurements, heart rate, end-tidal carbon dioxide, and respiratory rate. LSIs performed during transport and in the hospital were recorded. Data were analyzed using a multivariate logistic regression model to determine which vital signs were the best predictors of LSI. RESULTS: Radial pulse character and GCS verbal and motor components had the best predictive power for the need of a prehospital LSI in Group 1 (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve, 0.97). Radial pulse character together with the eye component of the GCS and the motor component of the GCS provided the best prediction of a need for a prehospital LSI for Group 2 (ROC curve, 0.97). Addition of all supplementary vital signs measured by an automated monitor (Group 3) resulted in an ROC curve of 0.97. Given an abnormal radial pulse character (weak or absent) and abnormal GCS verbal and motor components, the probability of needing an LSI was greater than 88%. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients, predicting the need for an LSI could have been achieved from GCS motor and verbal components and radial pulse character without automated monitors. These data show that simple and rapidly acquired manual measurements could be used to effectively triage non-head-injured trauma casualties. Similar results were obtained from manual measurements compared with those recorded from automated medical instrumentation that may be unavailable or difficult to use in the field.     

Assessment of the severity of hand injuries using "hand injury severity score", and its correlation with the functional outcome

INTRODUCTION: Objective assessment of hand injuries is a complex subject. However, an objective assessment, leading to a score, can help in predicting outcome and can be used as a research tool. Campbell and Kay have devised one such score known as "hand injury severity score" or HISS [J. Hand. Surg. [Br.] 21 (3) (1996) 295]. A study on this score has been carried out in our institute. The idea was to see if the hand injury severity score, correlates with the functional outcome as measured by disability arm shoulder and hand score (DASH), after a period of minimum 2 years. METHOD: All the hand injury patients admitted in the hospital were assessed at the time of admission, and objective information was documented on a hand injury documentation form. The form captured all the data required to calculate "hand injury severity score" . A sample of 70 patients admitted during the first 6 months of 1999 was taken and their scores were calculated. The sample was selected such, that it had a reasonable representation of hand injuries of all severities. After obtaining a due approval from ethics committee, all these 70 patients were sent a DASH questionnaire. A total of 23 patients replied. Spearman's rank correlation test was used to analyse the correlation between the severity of hand injury as assessed using HISS, and functional outcome as measured using DASH. Correlations between the outcome and skeletal component score, outcome and motor component scores, and outcome and Integument component scores, were assessed separately. RESULTS: The study shows a statistically significant association ( r = 0.7182, P = 0.000165) between the severities of injury and the functional outcome. The functional outcome also shows a statistically significant association with the severity of injury to skeletal component (r = 0.5151, P = 0.014083) and motor component (r = 0.6797, P = 0.000507). However, the severity of injury to integument component, as measured by HISS, does not show any association with the outcome (r = 0.3571, P = 0.102736). This study supports the overall structure of the HISS. However an improvement in the integument component scoring is required to improve overall accuracy.     

Cerebral hypoxia in severely brain-injured patients is associated with admission Glasgow Coma Scale score, computed tomographic severity, cerebral perfusion pressure, and survival

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship of cerebral hypoxia with admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, brain computed tomographic (CT) severity, cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), and survival in patients with severe brain injury. METHODS: CPP and noninvasive transcranial oximetry (Stco2) were recorded hourly for 6 days in patients with a GCS score < or = 8 (3,722 observations). CT score was derived from midline shift (0/1) plus abnormal cisterns (0/1) plus subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) (0/1) (range, 0-3). RESULTS: Brain CT results were as follows: shift, 10 (56%); abnormal cisterns, 14 (78%); SAH, 9 (50%); epidural hematoma, 2 (11%); subdural hematoma, 11 (61%); and contusion, 17 (94%). The incidences of Stco2 < 60 were: GCS score 3-4, 26.5%; GCS score 5-7, 12.4%; and GCS score 8, 2.8% (p < 0.0001); CT score 2/3, 26.4%; and CT score 0/1, 10.0% (p < 0.0001); nonsurvivors 36.1%; and survivors 16.3% (p < 0.0001). For incidence of CPP < 70, the results were as follows: Stco2 < 60%, 33% of observations; Stco2 > or = 60%, 10% of observations (odds ratio, 4.3; p < 0.01). Despite CPP > or = 70, Stco2 < 60 incidence was 16% of observations. CONCLUSION: Cerebral hypoxia is common, even with CPP > or = 70, and is associated with GCS score, CT scan severity, and mortality. Cerebral hypoxia is related to cerebral hypoperfusion. Additional studies may prove that Stco2 monitoring will enhance the treatment of severe brain injury.     

Waiting for the patient to "sober up": Effect of alcohol intoxication on glasgow coma scale score of brain injured patients

BACKGROUND: Between 35% to 50% of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients are under the influence of alcohol. Alcohol intoxication may limit the ability of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) to accurately assess severity of TBI. We hypothesized that alcohol intoxication significantly depresses GCS scores of TBI patients. METHODS: A 10-year, retrospective analysis of a Level I trauma center registry was undertaken. The study population consisted of all blunt injured TBI patients tested for blood alcohol concentration (BAC, n = 1,075). Patients were divided into two groups; intoxicated (mean BAC 202 +/- 77 mg/dL, n = 504) and nonintoxicated (BAC = 0, n = 571). TBI was classified using ICD-9 codes as concussion alone (ICD-9 850, n = 90) and intracranial injury (ICI, ICD-9 851-854, n = 985). Severity was further classified using the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS). Mean GCS score was compared between the two groups. Patients who were either intubated or hypotensive upon arrival were analyzed separately to rule out confounding effects on GCS score. Severely intoxicated patients (BAC >250 mg/dL, [mean +/- SD] 309 +/- 54 SD, n = 118) were similarly compared. Finally, multivariate linear regression analysis was undertaken to determine whether BAC level was an independent predictor of GCS score while controlling for confounding factors. RESULTS: Intoxicated and nonintoxicated TBI patients were clinically similar. Alcohol intoxication had little effect on GCS score, with less than a single point difference in all types of TBI, except the most severely injured (AIS 5 injuries, GCS score difference 1.4 points). These results were not altered by endotracheal intubation, systemic hypotension, or severe intoxication. Similarly, BAC was not a significant independent predictor of GCS score in a multivariate model. CONCLUSION: Alcohol intoxication does not result in clinically significant changes in GCS score for patients with blunt TBI. Hence, alterations in GCS score after TBI should not be attributed to alcohol intoxication, as doing so might result in inappropriate delays in monitoring and therapeutic interventions.     

Early prediction of outcome in very severe closed head injury

BACKGROUND: People with severe head injury and admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score < or =5 have a poor outcome and greatly strain limited resources. AIM: To identify patients with the best chances of survival, using routine clinical measures. METHODS: People attending the trauma intensive care unit, who had isolated blunt head injury and GCS< or =5 and who had survived > or =4h, were included in the study, resuscitated and clinically assessed. The GCS score was followed serially after admission. Bivariate analysis of various parameters with outcome was performed using the chi-square test. Serial GCS scores were compared with admission GCS by paired t-testing. RESULTS: Of the 102 patients who were studied prospectively, 78 (76.5%) died and 24 (23.5%) survived. Age, gender, pre-hospital delay and admission GCS scores were comparable between the two groups. Adequate spontaneous respiration, brisk pupillary light reactivity on admission and increase in GCS by at least 2 at 24h after admission significantly affected the outcome (p<0.05). In the presence of all these factors, the survival rate increased from 6.1% to 57.1% (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: People with GCS score < or =5 still have a reasonable chance of survival, so all patients should be aggressively managed initially. Better survival was observed among those with adequate spontaneous respiration, good pupillary reaction and improvement in GCS of at least 2 at 24h. These clinical parameters can help to predict survival and thus make best use of limited resources.     

Outcome prediction within twelve hours after severe traumatic brain injury by quantitative cerebral blood flow

We measured quantitative cortical mantle cerebral blood flow (CBF) by stable xenon computed tomography (CT) within the first 12?h after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) to determine whether neurologic outcome can be predicted by CBF stratification early after injury. Stable xenon CT was used for quantitative measurement of CBF (mL/100?g/min) in 22 cortical mantle regions stratified as follows: low (0-8), intermediate (9-30), normal (31-70), and hyperemic (>70) in 120 patients suffering severe (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score ≤8) TBI. For each of these CBF strata, percentages of total cortical mantle volume were calculated. Outcomes were assessed by Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score at discharge (DC), and 1, 3, and 6 months after discharge. Quantitative cortical mantle CBF differentiated GOS 1 and GOS 2 (dead or vegetative state) from GOS 3-5 (severely disabled to good recovery; p<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for percent total normal plus hyperemic flow volume (TNHV) predicting GOS 3-5 outcome at 6 months for CBF measured <6 and <12?h after injury showed ROC area under the curve (AUC) cut-scores of 0.92 and 0.77, respectively. In multivariate analysis, percent TNHV is an independent predictor of GOS 3-5, with an odds ratio of 1.460 per 10 percentage point increase, as is initial GCS score (OR=1.090). The binary version of the Marshall CT score was an independent predictor of 6-month outcome, whereas age was not. These results suggest that quantitative cerebral cortical CBF measured within the first 6 and 12?h after TBI predicts 6-month outcome, which may be useful in guiding patient care and identifying patients for randomized clinical trials. A larger multicenter randomized clinical trial is indicated.     

Outcome measures for clinical trials involving traumatically brain-injured patients: report of a conference.

A conference was held in Houston, Texas, on October 8-9, 1991, to develop recommendations for outcome measures for clinical trials in traumatic brain injury. Participants, all experts in this area, discussed and agreed on treatments for patients with severe brain injury (Glasgow Coma Score [GCS] < or = 8) and moderate brain injury (GCS, 9-12). A parallel trial design was recommended rather than a factorial, sequential, or crossover design. It was agreed that stratifying randomization based on motor score alone or on a combination of motor score and age would result in increased power. Acute stage measurements, such as cerebral blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid biochemistry, and evoked potentials, were recommended only when they satisfied a specific hypothesis. Functional outcome measures were recommended as the primary outcome measure for severe brain injury (GCS, 3-8). Either the Glasgow Outcome Scale or Disability Rating Scale, measured at 6 months after injury, were recommended as the primary outcome measure for severe brain injury (GCS, < or = 8). For patients with moderately severe brain injury (GCS, 9-12), the Disability Rating Scale at 3 months after injury was recommended as the primary outcome measure. The Neurobehavioral Rating Scale appears to be a satisfactory instrument for measuring behavioral changes. Specific neuropsychological measures were recommended as supplementary outcome measures for both severe and moderate brain injury, consistent with a 1.5-hour period available for testing.     

Impact of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score on prognosis after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma on cirrhosis.

The objective of this study was to predict postoperative liver failure and morbidity after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with cirrhosis. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is currently accepted as a disease severity index of cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation; however, its impact on prognosis after resection of HCC on cirrhosis has never been investigated. One hundred fifty-four cirrhotic patients resected in a tertiary care setting for HCC were retrospectively analyzed. For each patient, the MELD score was calculated and related to postoperative liver failure and complications (morbidity). Hospital stay and 1-year survival was also investigated. MELD accuracy in predicting postoperative liver failure and morbidity of cirrhotic patients was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Eleven patients (7.1%) experienced postoperative liver failure leading to death or transplantation. ROC analysis identified cirrhotic patients with a MELD score equal to or above 11 at high risk for postoperative liver failure (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87-0.96; sensitivity = 82%; specificity = 89%). Forty-six patients (29.9%) developed at least 1 postoperative complication: ROC analysis identified patients with a MELD score equal to or above 9 at major risk for postoperative complications (AUC = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.78-0.89; sensitivity = 87%; specificity = 63%). Cirrhotic patients with MELD score below 9 had no postoperative liver failure and low morbidity (8.1%). In conclusion, the MELD score can accurately predict postoperative liver failure and morbidity of cirrhotic patients referred for resection of HCC and should be used to select the best candidates for hepatectomy.     

Surgical mortality score: risk management tool for auditing surgical performance

Existing methods of risk adjustment in surgical audit are complex and costly. The present study aimed to develop a simple risk stratification score for mortality and a robust audit tool using the existing resources of the hospital Patient Administration System (PAS) database. This was an observational study for all patients undergoing surgical procedures over a two-year period, at a London university hospital. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictive factors of in-hospital mortality, the study outcome. Odds ratios were used as weights in the derivation of a simple risk-stratification model—the Surgical Mortality Score (SMS). Observed-to-expected mortality risk ratios were calculated for application of the SMS model in surgical audit. There were 11,089 eligible cases, under five surgical specialties (maxillofacial, orthopedic, renal transplant/dialysis, general, and neurosurgery). Incomplete data were 3.7% of the total, with no evidence of systematic underreporting. The SMS model was well calibrated [Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic: development set (3.432, p = 0.33), validation set (6.359, p = 0.10) with a high discriminant ability (ROC areas: development set [0.837, S.E.=0.013] validation set [0.816, S.E. = 0.016]). Subgroup analyses confirmed that the model can be used by the individual specialties for both elective and emergency cases. The SMS is an accurate risk- stratification model derived from existing database resources. It is simple to apply as a risk-management, screening tool to detect aberrations from expected surgical outcomes and to assist in surgical audit.     

The predictive value of field versus arrival Glasgow Coma Scale score and TRISS calculations in moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND: Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores are widely used to quantify level of consciousness in the prehospital environment. The predictive value of field versus arrival GCS is not well defined but has tremendous implications with regard to triage and therapeutic decisions as well as the use of various predictive scoring systems, such as Trauma Score and Injury Severity Score (TRISS). This study explores the predictive value of field GCS (fGCS) and arrival GCS (aGCS) as well as TRISS calculations using field (fTRISS) and arrival (aTRISS) data in patients with moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). METHODS: Major trauma victims with head Abbreviated Injury Scores of 3 or greater were identified from our county trauma registry over a 16-year period. The predictive ability of fGCS with regard to aGCS was explored using univariate statistics and linear regression modeling. The difference between aGCS and fGCS was also modeled against mortality and the composite endpoint using logistic regression, adjusting for fGCS. The predictive value of preadmission GCS (pGCS), defined as either fGCS or aGCS in nonintubated patients without a documented fGCS, with regard to mortality and a composite endpoint representing the need for neurosurgical care (death, craniotomy, invasive intracranial pressure monitoring, or intensive care unit care >48 hours) was determined using receiver-operator curve (ROC) analysis. Finally, fTRISS and aTRISS predicted survival values were compared with each other and to observed survival. RESULTS: A total of 12,882 patients were included. Mean values for fGCS and aGCS were similar (11.4 and 11.5, respectively, p = 0.336), and a strong correlation (r = 0.67, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, p < 0.0001) was observed between them. The difference between fGCS and aGCS was also predictive of outcome after adjusting for fGCS. Good predictive ability was observed for pGCS with regard to both mortality and neurosurgical intervention. Both fTRISS and aTRISS predicted survival values were nearly identical to observed survival. Observed and fTRISS predicted survival were nearly identical in patients undergoing prehospital intubation CONCLUSIONS: Values for fGCS are highly predictive of aGCS, and both are associated with outcome from TBI. A change in GCS from the field to arrival is highly predictive of outcome. The use of field data for TRISS calculations appears to be a valid methodological approach, even in severely injured TBI patients undergoing prehospital intubation.     

Decompressive craniectomy for elderly patients with traumatic brain injury: it's probably not worth the while

Decompressive craniectomy (DC) has been regarded as an ultima ratio measure in the treatment of refractory intracranial hypertension after brain injury. Most discussion about its benefits is based on studies performed in patients who are <65 years of age. The aim of this study was to identify patients aged ≥66 years who underwent DC after traumatic brain injury (TBI), in order to assess patient outcome and to correlate the values of potential predictors of survival on prognosis. From January 2002 to December 2009, 44 patients aged ≥66 underwent DC (follow-up, 12-102 months). Potential predictors of outcome were analyzed, including age, post-resuscitation Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, presence of mass lesion, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and timing of surgical decompression. Mortality was 48% at discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU), 57% at hospital discharge, and 77% at 1-year follow-up and at last follow-up. A bad outcome Glasgow Outcome Scale Dead-Vegetative State-Severely Disabled (GOS D-VS-SD) was observed in 36/44 patients both at hospital discharge and at 1-year follow-up. Mean SAPS II was 45.2 for patients who survived and 57.3 for patients who had died (p=0.0022). Patients who survived had a higher mean post-resuscitation GCS score (p=0.02). Logistical regression analysis indicated post-resuscitation GCS score as the only independent predictive factor for outcome. None of the 22 patients with a post-resuscitation GCS score of 3-5 had a good outcome, 2/10 (20%) patients with a post-resuscitation GCS score of 6-8 and 6/12 patients (50%) with a post-resuscitation GCS score ≥9 had a good outcome.     

The new injury severity score is a better predictor of extended hospitalization and intensive care unit admission than the injury severity score in patients with multiple orthopaedic injuries

OBJECTIVE: To compare the scoring efficacy of the injury severity score (ISS) and the new injury severity score (NISS) in predicting extended hospital length of stay (LOS) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission and to determine the effect of multiple orthopaedic injuries (MOI) on the discrepancies between the ISS and NISS and their impact on extended LOS and ICU admission. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Level 1 university trauma center. PATIENTS: All consecutive trauma admissions during the 2-year period ending on December 31, 2000, with age older than 14 years and survival greater than 24 hours were entered into the study. MAIN OUTCOMES: Extended (>or=10 days) hospital LOS and ICU admission. RESULTS: Of 3,100 patients, 7.5% had a higher NISS than ISS, spent more days in the hospital (22 versus 8; P < 0.001) and in the ICU (3.4 versus 0.1; P < 0.001), and had a higher mortality rate (8% versus 1.2%; P < 0.001) than patients with identical NISS and ISS. The NISS was found to be more predictive of longer (>or=10 days) LOS (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] NISS = 0.794, ISS = 0.782; P < 0.0001) and ICU admission (ROC NISS = 0.944, ISS = 0.918; P < 0.0001). The multivariate predictive model including NISS showed a better goodness of fit compared with the same model that included ISS. Patients with discrepant scores (NISS > ISS) spent a longer time in the hospital and in the ICU in addition to having an increased frequency of ICU admission. In 61% of the cases, MOI were responsible for the discrepant (NISS > ISS) scores. CONCLUSIONS: MOI have a significant effect on trauma outcomes such as LOS and ICU admission. The recognition of this high-risk group is not possible using the traditional ISS alone from retrospective or prospective databases. Considering its easier calculation and better predictive power, it is suggested that the NISS should replace the traditional ISS in trauma outcome research.     

A useful new coma scale in acute stroke patients: FOUR score

Assessment of the severity of unconsciousness in patients with impaired consciousness, prediction of mortality and prognosis are currently the most studied subjects in intensive care. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score in intensive care unit patients with stroke and the associations of FOUR score with the clinical outcome and with other coma scales (Glasgow [GCS] and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II). One hundred acute stroke patients (44 male, 56 female), who were followed in a neurology intensive care unit, were included in this prospective study. The mean age of the patients was 70.49 ± 12.42 years. Lesion types were determined as haemorrhagic in 30 and ischaemic in 70 patients. FOUR scores on the day of admission and the first, third and 10th days of patients who died within 15 days were lower when compared to scores of patients who survived (P=0.005, P=0.000, P=0.000 and P=0.000 respectively). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed significant trending with both FOUR score and GCS for prognosis; the area under curve ranged from 0.675 (95% confidence interval 0.565 to 0.786) when measurements had been made on day 3 to 0.922 (95% confidence interval 0.867 to 0.977) and 0.981 (95% confidence interval 0.947 to 1.015) for day 10. We suggest that FOUR score is a useful scale for evaluation of acute stroke patients in the intensive care unit as a homogeneous group, with respect to the outcome estimation.     

Galon免疫评分联合围手术期NRS对结直肠癌患者术后预后的预测价值研究

目的探究Galon免疫评分联合围术期营养风险筛查量表(NRS 2002)对结直肠癌患者术后预后的预测价值。 方法回顾性分析2014年10月至2016年10月接受结直肠癌根治术的97例原发性结直肠癌患者资料。采用统计软件SPSS 21.0进行数据分析,利用Kplan－Meier法及Cox回归模型分析围手术期NRS评分及原发灶Galon免疫评分与结直肠癌患者术后预后的关系及与临床病理特征间的相关性。采用ROC曲线检验联合评分预测模型对结直肠癌患者术后总生存的预测价值,并行Kplan－Meier分析预后,P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。 结果97例入组患者术后1、2、3年累计总生存率分别为95.9%、89.7%、70.1%。围术期NRS评分0分组患者3年总生存率>1分组>2分组(Log－rank χ²＝19.337,P＝0.000)。原发灶Galon免疫评分0分组患者3年总生存率<1分组<2分组<3分组<4分组(Log－rank χ²＝30.511, P＝0.000)。围术期NRS评分联合Galon免疫评分预测结直肠癌术后预后的诊断价值高于单个评分,其AUC值为0.785,灵敏度为65.93%,特异度为84.12%,约登指数为0.501。低危组患者术后3年总生存率优于高危组(Log－rank χ²＝12.517, P＝0.000)。 结论围手术期营养评分联合肿瘤免疫评分对结直肠癌患者预后具有较高预测价值,可在临床中推广应用。     

Glasgow Coma Score and Tumor Necrosis Factor α as Predictive Criteria for Initial Poor Graft Function

Initial poor graft function (IPGF) is a major factor influencing the clinical outcome after liver transplantation (LT), but there is no reliable method to assess and predict graft dysfunction. To help clinicians determine prognosis in the early postoperative period, individual parameters and complex scoring systems have been suggested, but most of them are inaccurate because of the multifactorial nature of transplantation courses. Therefore, the aim of our study was to retrospectively evaluate predictive criteria for retransplantation. Forty-two patients were enrolled in this study: 18 who experienced primary non-function (PNF) and 24 with delayed graft function (DGF). All of the patients were treated with the Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS). They were into 3 subgroups: patients who survived without LT (n = 20; 47.7%); patients who underwent LT (n = 16; 37%), and patients who died before transplantation (n = 6; 14%). Stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with the intent to find the risk factors for LT or death after MARS treatment (second analysis). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed on significant variables in the logistic regression model with the intent to individually predict variables for LT or death. After a stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis enrolling all of the previously reported features only 2 variables, tumor necrosis factor (TFN)-α and Glasgow coma score (GCS) score, were statistically significant. TNF-α was an unique independent risk factor for retransplantation or death after MARS treatment (odds ratio [OR] 1.235; P = .013). Conversely, GCS score was protective against retransplantation or death (OR 0.150; P = .003). Starting from these assumptions, a predictive model was created using these 2 variables. On ROC analysis, the combined score showed an area under the curve greater than that of the 2 variables considered separately. Validating these results with a larger number of patients, we considered these 2 factors as subjective parameters to determine outcomes and the difference between PNF and DGF.     

Impact of pretransplant MELD score on posttransplant outcome in orthotopic liver transplantation for patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

This study was performed to evaluate the usefulness of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score to predict short-term postoperative survival and 3-month morbidity among patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from all patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation in our unit from December 1999 to November 2005, on the admission day MELD and CTP scores were calculated for each patient according to the original formula. We evaluated the accuracy of MELD and CTP to predict postoperative short-term survival and 3-month morbidity using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Kaplan-Meier analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Seven of 42 patients died within 3-months follow-up. The MELD scores for nonsurvivors (32.97 +/- 7.11) were significantly higher than those for survivors (24.90 +/- 4.96; P < .05), CTP scores were significantly higher, too (12.57 +/- 0.98, 11.51 +/- 1.17; P < .05). ROC analysis identified the MELD best cut-off point to be 25.67 to predict postoperative morbidity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.841; sensitivity = 85.7%; specificity = 60.0%), and the CTP best cut-off point was 11.5 (AUC = 0.747; sensitivity = 85.7%; specificity = 54.3%). MELD score was superior to CTP score to predict postoperative short-term survival and 3-month morbidity among patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation. CONCLUSION: MELD score was an objective predictive system and more efficient than CTP score to evaluate the risk of 3-month morbidity and short-term prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation.