Mortality in rheumatoid arthritis: have we made an impact in 4 decades?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends in survival among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) over the past 4 decades. METHODS: Three population based prevalence cohorts of all Rochester, Minnesota, residents age > or =35 years with RA (1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria) on January 1, 1965, January 1, 1975, and January 1, 1985; and an incidence cohort of all new cases of RA occurring in the same population between January 1, 1955 and January 1, 1985, were followed longitudinally through their entire medical records (including all inpatient and outpatient care by any provider) until death or migration from the county. Mortality was described using the Kaplan-Meier method and the influence of age, sex, rheumatoid factor (RF) positivity, and comorbidity (using the Charlson Comorbidity Index) on mortality was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Mortality was statistically significantly worse than expected for each of the cohorts (overall p<0.0001). A trend toward increased mortality in the 1975 and 1985 prevalence cohorts compared to the 1965 prevalence cohort was present, even after adjusting for significant predictors of mortality (age, RF positivity, and comorbidity). Survival for the general population of Rochester residents of similar age and sex improved in 1975 compared to 1965, and in 1985 compared to 1975. CONCLUSION: The excess mortality associated with RA has not changed in 4 decades. Moreover, people with RA have not enjoyed the same improvements in survival experienced by their non-RA peers. More attention should be paid to mortality as an outcome measure in RA.     

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates: a nationwide population study in Taiwan

There are few nationwide population studies on the epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Here, we present the epidemiologic features and mortality rates of RA in Taiwan. The catastrophic illness registry of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database and the National Death Registry of Taiwan were used to estimate the incidence and prevalence of RA and its associated mortality rates. All-cause and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated and compared to the corresponding ratios of the general population in 2002. The study comprised 15,967 incident RA cases (3,562 men; 12,405 women) occurring from 2002 through 2007. The annual incidence of RA was 15.8 cases (men, 10.1; women, 41.0) per 100,000 population. The period prevalence was 97.5 cases (men, 37.4; women, 159.5) per 100,000 population. During 67,010 person-years of follow-up, 985 deaths (372 men; 613 women) were identified, and this corresponded to a crude mortality rate of 14.7 deaths (men, 25.0; women, 11.8) per 1,000 person-years. Compared to female patients, male patients had a higher risk for mortality (log-rank test, p < 0.001). RA patients had an SMR of 1.25 (95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.18–1.33) for all-cause mortality. Compared to the general population, RA patients of both genders in this cohort had a significantly higher risk of mortality from infection (SMR, 2.49) and gastrointestinal diseases (SMR, 1.76). RA incidence and prevalence were higher in women than in men. Mortality was higher in men than in women. Compared to the general population, RA patients had a higher risk of death, particularly from infection and gastrointestinal diseases.     

Contribution of congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease to excess mortality in rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE: Although mortality among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is higher than in the general population, the relative contribution of comorbid diseases to this mortality difference is not known. This study was undertaken to evaluate the contribution of congestive heart failure (CHF) and ischemic heart disease (IHD), including myocardial infarction, to the excess mortality in patients with RA, compared with that in individuals without RA. METHODS: We assembled a population-based inception cohort of individuals living in Rochester, Minnesota, in whom RA (defined according to the criteria of the American College of Rheumatology [formerly, the American Rheumatism Association]) first developed between 1955 and 1995, and an age- and sex-matched non-RA cohort. All subjects were followed up until either death, migration from the county, or until 2001. Detailed information from the complete medical records was collected. Statistical analyses included the person-years method, cumulative incidence, and Cox regression modeling. Attributable risk analysis techniques were used to estimate the number of RA deaths that would be prevented if the incidence of CHF was the same in patients with RA and non-RA subjects. RESULTS: The study population included 603 patients with RA and 603 subjects without RA. During followup, there was an excess of 123 deaths among patients with RA (345 RA deaths occurred, although only 222 such deaths were expected). The mortality rates among patients with RA and non-RA subjects were 39.0 and 29.2 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. There was a significantly higher cumulative incidence of CHF (but not IHD) in patients with RA compared with non-RA subjects (37.1% versus 27.7% at 30 years of followup, respectively; P < 0.001). The risk of death associated with either CHF or IHD was not significantly different between patients with RA and non-RA subjects. If the risk of developing CHF was the same in patients with RA and individuals without RA, the overall mortality rate difference between RA and non-RA hypothetically would be reduced from 9.8 to 8.0 excess deaths per 1,000 person-years; that is, 16 (13%) of the 123 excess deaths could be prevented. CONCLUSION: CHF, rather than IHD, appears to be an important contributor to the excess overall mortality among patients with RA. CHF contributes to this excess mortality primarily through the increased incidence of CHF in RA, rather than increased mortality associated with CHF in patients with RA compared with non-RA subjects. Eliminating the excess risk of CHF in patients with RA could significantly improve their survival.     

The natural history of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The natural history of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the community remains unknown. We sought to determine survival and liver-related morbidity among community-based NAFLD patients. METHODS: Four hundred twenty patients diagnosed with NAFLD in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1980 and 2000 were identified using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Medical records were reviewed to confirm diagnosis and determine outcomes up to 2003. Overall survival was compared with the general Minnesota population of the same age and sex. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age at diagnosis was 49 (15) years; 231 (49%) were male. Mean follow-up was 7.6 (4.0) years (range, 0.1-23.5) culminating in 3192 person-years follow-up. Overall, 53 of 420 (12.6%) patients died. Survival was lower than the expected survival for the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.003-1.76; P = .03). Higher mortality was associated with age (hazard ratio per decade, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.7), impaired fasting glucose (hazard ratio, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.3-5.2), and cirrhosis (hazard ratio, 3.1, 95% CI, 1.2-7.8). Liver disease was the third leading cause of death (as compared with the thirteenth leading cause of death in the general Minnesota population), occurring in 7 (1.7%) subjects. Twenty-one (5%) patients were diagnosed with cirrhosis, and 13 (3.1%) developed liver-related complications, including 1 requiring transplantation and 2 developing hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality among community-diagnosed NAFLD patients is higher than the general population and is associated with older age, impaired fasting glucose, and cirrhosis. Liver-related death is a leading cause of mortality, although the absolute risk is low.     

Paradoxical effect of body mass index on survival in rheumatoid arthritis: role of comorbidity and systemic inflammation

BACKGROUND: Despite high cardiovascular mortality in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), few studies of body mass index (BMI) and obesity as risk factors for death in RA have been published. METHODS: We estimated the effect of BMI on survival in a cohort of 779 patients with RA adjusting for comorbidity, RA disease severity, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and other potential confounders. RESULTS: The cohort accrued 123 deaths in 3460 person-years (3.6 deaths per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-4.2). The BMI was inversely associated with mortality. Patients with BMIs of 30 or higher had the lowest mortality, 1.7 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.1-2.5). Mortality was higher in each lower BMI category, reaching its highest rate among patients with BMIs lower than 20 with 15.0 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI, 9.9-23.0). The survival advantage of high BMI was independent of RA onset age, RA duration, sex, ethnic group, socioeconomic status, smoking status, and use of methotrexate but was lost on adjusting for comorbidity and RA severity. We observed an interaction between BMI and ESR, where the BMI protective influence occurred only if the ESR was low. The BMI x ESR interaction was independent of all covariates, including comorbidity and RA severity. CONCLUSIONS: Body mass has a paradoxical effect on mortality in RA. Patients with high BMI have lower mortality than thinner patients. This effect is mediated in part by comorbidity. The effect of body mass on survival seems to be modified by the level of systemic inflammation.     

Trends in incidence and mortality in rheumatoid arthritis in Rochester, Minnesota, over a forty-year period

OBJECTIVE: To determine time trends in the epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a population-based cohort. METHODS: An inception cohort of residents of Rochester, Minnesota > or = 18 years of age who first fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology 1987 criteria between January 1, 1955 and December 31, 1994 (applied retrospectively, as appropriate) was assembled and followed up until January 1, 2000. Incidence rates were estimated and were age- and sex-adjusted to the 1990 white population of the US. A birth cohort analysis was performed, and survival rates over time were examined. RESULTS: The incidence cohort comprised 609 patients, 445 (73.1%) of whom were female and 164 (26.9%) were male, with a mean age at incidence of 58.0 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of RA among Rochester, Minnesota, residents > or = 18 years of age was 44.6/100,000 population (95% confidence interval 41.0-48.2). While the incidence rate fell progressively over the 4 decades of study, from 61.2/100,000 in 1955-1964, to 32.7/100,000 in 1985-1994, there were indications of cyclical trends over time. Birth cohort analysis showed diminishing incidence rates through successive cohorts following a peak in the 1880-1890 cohorts. Incidence rates increased with age until age 85, but peaked earlier in women than in men. The survival rate in RA patients was significantly lower than the expected rate in the general population (P < 0.001), and no improvement was noted over time. CONCLUSION: The secular trends demonstrated in this study population, including the progressive decline in the incidence of RA over the last 40 years, suggest that an environmental factor may play a role in the etiology of RA.     

Mortality trends in rheumatoid arthritis: the role of rheumatoid factor

OBJECTIVE: We previously demonstrated a widening in the mortality gap between subjects with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and the general population. We examined the contribution of rheumatoid factor (RF) positivity on overall mortality trends and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: A population-based RA incidence cohort (1955-1995, and aged >or= 18 yrs) was followed longitudinally until death or January 1, 2006. The underlying cause of death as coded from national mortality statistics and grouped according to ICD-9/10 chapters was used to define cause-specific mortality. Expected cause-specific mortality rates were estimated by applying the age-, sex-, and calendar-year-specific mortality rates from the general population to the RA cohort. Poisson regression was used to model the observed overall and cause-specific mortality rates according to RF status, accounting for age, sex, disease duration, and calendar year. RESULTS: A cohort of 603 subjects (73% female; mean age 58 yrs) with RA was followed for a mean of 16 years, during which 398 died. Estimated survival at 30 years after RA incidence was 26.0% in RF+ RA subjects compared to 36.0% expected (p < 0.001), while in RF- RA subjects, estimated survival was 29.1% compared to 28.3% expected (p = 0.9). The difference between the observed and the expected mortality in the RF+ RA subjects increased over time, resulting in a widening of the mortality gap, while among RF- RA subjects, observed mortality was very similar to the expected mortality over the entire time period. Among RF+ RA subjects, cause-specific mortality was higher than expected for cardiovascular [relative risk (RR) 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22, 1.83] and respiratory diseases [RR 3.49; 95% CI 2.51, 4.72]. Among RF- RA subjects, no significant differences were found between observed and expected cause-specific mortality. CONCLUSION: The widening in the mortality gap between RA subjects and the general population is confined to RF+ RA subjects and largely driven by cardiovascular and respiratory deaths.     

Rates and causes of child mortality in an area of high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE: To determine child mortality rates in a rural area of South Africa with high HIV prevalence. METHODS: A community-based survey was conducted between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2002 on deaths in children under the age of 15 years. Children were followed up through four monthly home visits. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy. Rates were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Mortality ratios were 59.6 deaths per 1000 live births for infants and 97.1 for children under 5 years of age. Infant and under-5 mortality rates were, respectively, 67.5 and 21.1 deaths per 1000 person-years. HIV/AIDS was attributed to 41% of deaths in the under-5 age group, with a mortality rate of 8.6 per 1000 person-years. Lower respiratory infections caused an estimated 24.9 deaths per 1000 person-years in children under 1 year of age. CONCLUSIONS: In rural South Africa, infant and child mortality levels are high, with HIV/AIDS estimated as the single largest cause of death. Interventions to reduce child mortality are required urgently.     

Rheumatoid arthritis in women. Incidence rates in group health cooperative, Seattle, Washington, 1987-1989.

As part of a prospective case-control study of newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in women, we identified all cases of probable, definite, or classic RA diagnosed in 1987-1989 in 18-64-year-old women who were members of a health maintenance organization based in the Seattle, Washington area. Using both the 1958 and the 1987 American Rheumatism Association criteria for the diagnosis of RA and enrollment data from the health maintenance organization, we calculated the incidence by age and diagnostic class. Rates of RA incidence in women increased steadily with age. The incidence of probable, definite, or classic RA ranged from 13.1 per 100,000 person-years at risk for 18-29-year-old women to 82.1 per 100,000 person-years for 60-64-year-old women. The overall incidence rate, age-adjusted to the 1980 US female population, was 27.9/100,000 person-years. The overall incidence rate for definite/classic RA, age-adjusted to the 1980 US female population, was 23.9 per 100,000 person-years. When compared with adjusted rates of incidence of definite RA in Rochester, Minnesota, in 1950-1974, the incidence rates we found were 44.7% lower. Methodologic differences, changes in diagnostic criteria, and a declining incidence of RA among women over time may all be partial explanations for these results. The possible effects of reproductive factors, including oral contraceptives use, are discussed.     

Early Mortality Rates After Commencement of Maintenance Hemodialysis: A Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis

Mortality rates are reported to be high soon after the commencement of maintenance HD for ESRD. Our aim was to estimate early mortality rates (deaths within 180 days of starting therapy), through a systematic review of literature, in this patient population. Medline and EMBASE were searched for publications between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2017. Observational studies reporting deaths involving adults commencing HD were included. The Quality in Prognosis Studies tool was used to assess risk of bias in studies. Crude mortality rates (expressed in 100 person‐years) and age‐standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated. Meta‐analyses of these rates were conducted for studies with lowest risk of bias (i.e. highest quality). In total, 32 studies were included (combined population: 1 083 264) representing 283 277 person‐years of observation; median follow‐up: 90 days. Mortality rates ranged between 12.8 and 55.6 per 100 person‐years. Cardiovascular causes accounted for the majority of early deaths. Meta‐analysis of high‐quality studies showed an overall crude mortality rate of 32.6 per 100 person‐years (95% CI 32.4–32.8). This equates to 16.3% mortality in first 180 days of starting HD. Six high‐quality studies contained sufficient data for calculation of SMR. Meta‐analysis of SMRs showed that patients starting HD therapy sustain 8.8 times higher mortality rates compared to the general population. We have combined the results of high‐quality studies to produce new estimates of early mortality rates after commencement of HD therapy. This information can help relay more reliable prognostic information to this patient population.     

Incidence, clinical spectrum, and outcomes of primary sclerosing cholangitis in a United States community

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The epidemiology of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) in the United States is unknown. We report the incidence, clinical spectrum, and outcomes of PSC in Olmsted County, Minnesota. METHODS: Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, a medical records linkage system in Olmsted County, Minnesota, we identified county residents with PSC, and the diagnosis was confirmed according to clinical, biochemical, radiographic, and histologic criteria. RESULTS: Twenty-two patients met diagnostic criteria for PSC in 1976-2000. The age-adjusted (to 2000 U.S. whites) incidence of PSC in men was 1.25 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.70 to 2.06) compared with 0.54 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.22 to 1.12) in women. The prevalence of PSC in 2000 was 20.9 per 100,000 men (95% CI, 9.5 to 32.4) and only 6.3 per 100,000 women (95% CI, 0.1 to 12.5). Seventy-three percent of cases had inflammatory bowel disease, the majority with ulcerative colitis. Survival among PSC patients was significantly less than expected for the Minnesota white population of similar age and gender (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These data represent the first population-based estimates of the incidence and prevalence of PSC in the United States. The incidence and prevalence of PSC were approximately one third of those previously described for primary biliary cirrhosis in the same population. Our data suggest that the prevalence of PSC in the United States, with its attendant medical burdens, is significantly greater than previously estimated.     

Age- and sex-associated trends in bloodstream infection: a population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing concerns about antimicrobial resistance and emerging pathogens among blood culture isolates, contemporary population-based data on the age- and sex-specific incidence of bloodstream infections (BSIs) are limited. METHODS: Retrospective, population-based, cohort study of all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with a BSI between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The medical record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project and microbiology records were used to identify incident cases. RESULTS: A total of 1051 unique patients with positive blood culture results were identified; 401 (38.2%) were classified as contaminated. Of 650 patients with cultures deemed clinically relevant, the mean +/- SD age was 63.1 +/- 23.1 years, and 52.5% were male. The most common organisms identified were Escherichia coli (in 163 patients with BSIs [25.1%]) and Staphylococcus aureus (in 108 patients with BSIs [16.6%]). Nosocomial BSIs were more common in males than females (23.8% vs 13.9%; P = .002). The age-adjusted incidence rate of BSI was 156 per 100 000 person-years for females and 237 per 100 000 person-years for males (P<.001), with an age- and sex-adjusted rate of 189 per 100 000 person-years. Rates of BSI due to gram-positive cocci were 64 per 100 000 person-years for females and 133 per 100 000 person-years for males (P<.001); gram-negative bacillus BSI rates (85/100 000 person-years for females and 79/100 000 person-years for males) were not significantly different between sexes (P = .79). The rate of S aureus BSI was 23 per 100 000 person-years for females and 46 per 100 000 person-years for males (P = .005). CONCLUSIONS: There are significant differences in the age and sex distribution of organisms among patients with BSIs. The incidence of BSI increases sharply with increasing age and is significantly higher in males, mainly because of nosocomial organisms, including S aureus.     

Increased mortality in adults with a history of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: To assess mortality in a population-based cohort of adults with a history of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (JRA). METHODS: The Rochester Epidemiology Project database was used to identify all cases of JRA diagnosed among Rochester, Minnesota residents under the age of 16 between January 1, 1960 and December 31, 1993. Fifty-seven patients in this cohort are now adults (ages 18-53 years, mean age 34.3 years), and this subgroup was contacted for a long-term followup study. The average length of followup from the time of diagnosis was 25.6 years. RESULTS: Four deaths occurred in this cohort of 57 adults with a history of JRA. All 4 deceased patients had other autoimmune illnesses and died of complications of these diseases. The observed frequency of 4 deaths was significantly greater (P < 0.0026 by one-sample log-rank test) than the 1 death that would be expected among Minnesota whites of similar age and sex, and corresponds to a mortality rate of 0.27 deaths per 100 years of patient followup compared with an expected mortality rate of 0.068 deaths per 100 years of followup in the general population. CONCLUSION: The results indicate a significant, unexpected increase in mortality in this population-based cohort of adults with a history of JRA in comparison with the rate in the general population. The deaths in this group were all associated with other autoimmune disorders, suggesting that special emphasis should be given to the diagnosis and treatment of other autoimmune diseases, including immunodeficiencies, in JRA patients. The frequency of deaths in this cohort suggests that JRA patients are at substantial risk for mortality, and highlights the need for longitudinal followup and care into adulthood.     

Long-term outcome in symptomatic carotid sinus hypersensitivity.

Between 1982 and 1988, we observed 312 patients who were affected by syncope or presyncope and whose spontaneous symptoms could be reproduced by means of carotid sinus massage (CSH); no other definite cause of syncope could be identified. The clinical outcome during a 2- to 8-year follow-up period (mean 44 +/- 24 months) was assessed in 262 of them (mean age, 71 +/- 11 years; 183 men) and was compared with that of a group of 55 patients who were affected by unexplained syncope (control patients) who were matched 4:1 for age and sex with CSH patients. CSH patients had an overall mortality rate of 7.3 per 100 person-years (cardiovascular, 66%; sudden death, 9%); overall predicted cumulative survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 7 years were 92%, 80%, 66% and 53%. Survival was similar in control patients; mortality rate was 5.8 per 100 person-years (cardiovascular, 82%; sudden death, 18%); cumulative survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 7 years were 85%, 80%, 73%, and 69%. Standardized mortality rate of the general population with similar age and sex distribution, as calculated by means of Italian Istituto Centrale di Statistica death-rate data (1987 edition) was 8 per 100 person-years. Of 13 clinical variables, age, sex, abnormal electrocardiogram, and heart failure (but not CSH type or related arrhythmias) were independently linked to mortality in CSH patients (Cox model). In the vasodepressor form of CSH, patients were younger than those with other forms of CSH and the percentage of women was higher.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Excess mortality emerges after 10 years in an inception cohort of early rheumatoid arthritis

Objective

To investigate mortality rates, causes of death, time trends in mortality, prognostic factors for mortality, and the relationship between disease activity and mortality over a 23‐year period in an inception cohort of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients.

Methods

A prospective inception cohort of RA patients diagnosed between January 1985 and October 2007 was followed for up to 23 years after diagnosis. Excess mortality was analyzed by comparing the observed mortality in the RA cohort with the expected mortality based on the general population of The Netherlands, matched for age, sex, and calendar year. Period analysis was used to examine time trends in survival across calendar time. Prognostic factors for mortality and the influence of the time‐varying Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) on mortality were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Causes of death were analyzed.

Results

Of the 1,049 patients in the cohort, 207 patients died. Differences in observed and expected mortality emerged after 10 years of followup. No improvement in survival was noted over calendar time. Significant baseline predictors of survival were sex, age, rheumatoid factor, disability, and comorbidity. Higher levels of DAS28 over time, adjusted for age, were associated with lower survival rates, more so in men (hazard ratio [HR] 1.58, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.35–1.85) than in women (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.04–1.42).

Conclusion

Excess mortality in RA emerged after 10 years of disease duration. Absolute survival rates have not improved in the last 23 years and a trend toward a widening mortality gap between RA patients and the general population was visible. Higher disease activity levels contribute to premature death in RA patients.     

Trends in incidence and mortality in rheumatoid arthritis in Rochester,Minnesota, over a forty‐year period

Objective

To determine time trends in the epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a population‐based cohort.

Methods

An inception cohort of residents of Rochester, Minnesota ≥18 years of age who first fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology 1987 criteria between January 1, 1955 and December 31, 1994 (applied retrospectively, as appropriate) was assembled and followed up until January 1, 2000. Incidence rates were estimated and were age‐ and sex‐adjusted to the 1990 white population of the US. A birth cohort analysis was performed, and survival rates over time were examined.

Results

The incidence cohort comprised 609 patients, 445 (73.1%) of whom were female and 164 (26.9%) were male, with a mean age at incidence of 58.0 years. The overall age‐ and sex‐adjusted annual incidence of RA among Rochester, Minnesota, residents ≥18 years of age was 44.6/100,000 population (95% confidence interval 41.0–48.2). While the incidence rate fell progressively over the 4 decades of study, from 61.2/100,000 in 1955–1964, to 32.7/100,000 in 1985–1994, there were indications of cyclical trends over time. Birth cohort analysis showed diminishing incidence rates through successive cohorts following a peak in the 1880–1890 cohorts. Incidence rates increased with age until age 85, but peaked earlier in women than in men. The survival rate in RA patients was significantly lower than the expected rate in the general population (P < 0.001), and no improvement was noted over time.

Conclusion

The secular trends demonstrated in this study population, including the progressive decline in the incidence of RA over the last 40 years, suggest that an environmental factor may play a role in the etiology of RA.

     

Rising incidence and persistently high mortality of hospitalized pneumonia: a 10-year population-based study in Denmark

BACKGROUND: Little is known about temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of pneumonia in the general population. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study in three Danish counties (population 1.4 million) to examine changes in the incidence and 30- and 90-day mortality associated with hospitalized pneumonia between 1994 and 2004. All adults hospitalized with a first-time diagnosis of pneumonia (n = 41 793) were identified in hospital discharge registries and followed for mortality through the Danish Civil Registry System. We determined age-standardized incidence rates and adjusted mortality rates associated with calendar year, gender, age and comorbidity. RESULTS: Between 1994 and 2003, the incidence of hospitalized pneumonia amongst adults increased from 288 per 100 000 person-years to 442 per 100 000 person-years, equivalent to an age-standardized incidence rate ratio of 1.50. The cumulative mortality within 30 and 90 days of admission was 15.2% and 21.9%, respectively, ranging from a 90-day mortality of 2.5% in patients aged 15-39 years to 34.7% in those aged 80 and over. Advanced age was the most important poor prognostic factor, followed by a high comorbidity score and male gender. The adjusted mortality rate ratios amongst patients with hospitalized pneumonia in 1999-2004, when compared with 1994-1998, were 0.89 (95% CI 0.85-0.94) after 30 days and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88-0.95) after 90 days. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of hospitalized pneumonia in Denmark has increased considerably during the last 10 years and, combined with persistently high mortality rates, is of clinical and public health concern.     

Mortality, survival and prevalence: traumatic spinal cord injury in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1935-1981

Mortality, prevalence, and survival from traumatic spinal cord injury were examined in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1935 through 1981. One hundred and fifty-four incident cases and 30 additional cases who were Olmsted County residents on at least one of four prevalence dates were identified. The average annual age-adjusted mortality for spinal cord injury, including deaths attributable to spinal cord injury occurring at any time after injury was 28.5 per million population. The rates in males were consistently greater than females, peaking to 61.0 in the period 1965-74. Thirty-eight percent of cases did not survive long enough to be hospitalized. Survival was 58% in the first week post-injury. However, for those who survived the first day and the first year, the 10-year survival was 77 and 87%, respectively. Early fatality in males was associated with single marital status (p = 0.0033) and concomitant head trauma (p = 0.0122), and in females with pedestrian or bicyclist status at injury (p less than 0.0001). Long-term survival was dependent on age (p less than 0.0001) and functional disability (p = 0.04). Point prevalence of spinal cord injured patients increased from 197 per million population in 1950 to 473 in 1980. This increase in prevalence was due at least in part to increasing incidence over time. An improvement in survival over the time period of the study could not be detected.     

Low mortality in HIV-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a comparison with the general population

OBJECTIVES: To assess the mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) compared to the mortality of the general population, focusing on the influence of the CD4 cell count at the time of starting HAART. METHODS: Patients in the HIV Cohort Study in Western Denmark starting HAART before 1 January 2002 were identified. For each patient, 100 population controls matched on age and gender were extracted from the Danish Civil Registration System. Mortality rates were compared between the two cohorts overall, and in four groups defined by baseline CD4 cell counts. RESULTS: A total of 647 HIV-infected patients and 64 700 population controls were included, accounting for 53 and 815 deaths during follow-up. In the HIV group, mortality rates were 70.0 per 1000 person-years at risk in the lowest CD4 cell group (< 50 x 10 cells/l), and 3.2 in the highest (> or = 200 x 10 cells/l). Compared with population controls, mortality rate ratios declined with increasing CD4 cell counts, being 15.3 [95% confidence interval (CI), 9.8-23.8], 8.6 (95% CI, 4.3-16.8), 5.9 (95% CI, 3.0-11.4), and 3.6 (95% CI, 2.0-6.5) in the groups with CD4 cell count < 50, 50-99, 100-199, and > or = 200 x 10 cells/l. CONCLUSION: In comparison with the general population, HIV-infected patients starting HAART with a CD4 cell count above 200 x 10 cells/l had low mortality rates that were comparable with the rates found in other chronic medical diseases. The mortality rates increased considerably when treatment was started at lower baseline CD4 cell counts.     

Esophageal stricture: incidence, treatment patterns, and recurrence rate

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the incidence, natural history, and recurrence rate of esophageal stricture diagnosed in primary care. METHODS: From the U.K. General Practice Research Database, we identified patients with a stricture diagnosis recorded between 1994 and 2000. Diagnoses were confirmed by general practitioner-completed questionnaires. Patients with stricture were compared to an age- and sex-matched sample of controls from the original source population. We estimated the incidence of stricture, potential risk factors, and comorbidities, and relative risk (RR) for subsequent stricture recurrence and mortality. RESULTS: The incidence of esophageal stricture was 1.1 per 10,000 person-years and increased markedly with age. Incidence of stricture decreased from 1994 to 2000, concomitant with a substantial increase in proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use. The majority of stricture cases (68%) were peptic. Prior dysphagia, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), hiatus hernia, peptic ulcer disease, and heavy alcohol use were associated with an increased risk of stricture. The rate of stricture recurrence was 11.1 per 100 person-years. Risk of recurrence associated with long-term PPI use adjusting for other factors was 0.6 (95% CI 0.3-1.1). Mortality in patients with peptic stricture was similar to that in the control population. CONCLUSIONS: Esophageal stricture is a rare event, and most cases in primary care are peptic strictures. Prior GERD, hiatus hernia, and peptic ulcer are associated with an increased risk of peptic stricture. Incidence of stricture decreased from 1994 to 2000.