Waterlow score for risk assessment in surgical patients: a systematic review

IntroductionThe Waterlow score (WS) is used routinely in clinical practice to assess risk of pressure sore development. Recent studies have also suggested its use in preoperative risk stratification. The primary aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the current evidence on the WS in predicting morbidity and mortality in surgical patients.MethodsA systematic review was carried out in accordance with PRISMA and SWiM guidelines. A search strategy was conducted on the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. Quality was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa scale.FindingsOverall, 72 papers were identified, of which 7 met inclusion criteria for full text review, and 4 were included for analysis. All studies were cohort in nature and published between 2013 and 2016, encompassing a total of 505 surgical patients. The studies included general, vascular, transplant and orthopaedic surgery. A high WS was demonstrated to have statistically significant association with increased morbidity and mortality as well as need for intensive care unit admission and length of stay. Furthermore, this was a more accurate predictor compared with the P-POSSUM and ASA scoring systems used currently in routine practice.ConclusionsThe WS is a promising tool for risk stratification of surgical patients. It is already collected routinely by nursing staff throughout hospitals in the UK and would therefore be easy to implement. However, further large prospective studies are required in order to validate these findings prior to its establishment for this role in everyday surgical practice.     

肾移植长期受者贫血的特征及相关因素分析

目的 分析肾移植长期受者贫血的特征及其影响因素。 方法 以肾移植长期受者258例为研究对象,总结贫血的性质和发生率,分析贫血与红细胞生成素（EPO）、肾小管功能、肾功能、排斥反应、免疫抑制药物及心脑血管并发症的关系。 结果 258例均为首次肾移植受者,贫血的总发生率为41.1％。受者大部分为正细胞正色素性贫血,少部分为小细胞低色素性贫血,极少部分为溶血性贫血。贫血受者中,大部分为EPO缺乏,少部分为EPO抵抗。受者的血红蛋白（Hb）与估算肾小球滤过率（eGFR）、肌酐清除率（Ccr）呈正相关（r = 0.348, P ＜ 0.01;r = 0.351,P ＜ 0.01）;与N-乙酰氨基葡萄糖苷酶（NAG）呈负相关（r = -0.327,P ＜ 0.01）。在Scr正常的情况下,贫血组肾小管病变比非贫血组严重。贫血受者急、慢性排斥反应的发生率显著高于非贫血受者（P ＜ 0.01)。环孢素+硫唑嘌呤+泼尼松方案（CsA+Aza+Pred ）贫血的发生率为69.0％;环孢素+霉酚酸酯+泼尼松方案（CsA+MMF+Pred）贫血的发生率为35.8％;他可莫司+霉酚酸酯+泼尼松方案（FK506+MMF+Pred)贫血的发生率为34.8％;西罗莫司（雷帕霉素）+霉酚酸酯+泼尼松方案 （SRL+MMF+Pred）贫血的发生率为41.7％。骨髓抑制是硫唑嘌呤最常见的不良反应。Hb与硫唑嘌呤的使用时间呈负相关（r = -0.354,P ＜ 0.01);Hb与霉酚酸酯的剂量（2~3 g/d）及使用时间呈负相关（r = -0.285,P ＜ 0.05;r = -0.372,P ＜ 0.01）;Hb与雷帕霉素的剂量（2~5 mg/d）及使用时间呈负相关（r = -0.278,P ＜ 0.05; r = -0.359,P ＜ 0.01）。贫血受者心脑血管病变发生率显著高于非贫血受者（P ＜ 0.01）。 结论 肾移植长期受者贫血的发生率相当高。贫血不仅与肾功能、肾小管间质病变相关,而且也与EPO、排斥反应、免疫抑制药物相关。贫血是肾移植受者出现心脑血管并发症的高危因素。     

Limitations in the inter-observer reliability of EuroSCORE: what should change in EuroSCORE II?

Objectives: To carry out an in-depth single-centre analysis of the inter-observer reliability of the EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) to propose changes for the EuroSCORE II. Methods: Data for the EuroSCORE additive and logistic models were prospectively collected by surgeons (computer-assisted calculation) (SurgAE and SurgLE) and perfusionists (on A4 data collection forms; PerfAE) for 1719 consecutive adult heart operations. The performance of the EuroSCORE was first analysed, then inter-observer discrepancies in the score were assessed globally and for any of its 17 risk factors. Results: Hospital mortality was 4.3% (SurgAE and SurgLE: 5.3 and 7.3, respectively). The predictive ability and the calibration of the score were acceptable (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve: 0.75 for SurgAE and 0.753 for SurgLE, p = 0.98, Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). Overall inter-observer concordance was satisfactory (Kappa coefficient: 0.71) but SurgAE and PerfAE were different in 26.3% of cases (SurgAE > PerfAE in 18.6%, and PerfAE > SurgAE in 7.7%). Five of the 17 risk factors accounted for most of the variability: left-ventricular ejection fraction, extracardiac arteriopathy, surgery other than isolated coronary artery bypass graft, recent myocardial infarction and pulmonary hypertension (with discrepancies respectively noticed in 7.6%, 5.3%, 5%, 3.9% and 3% of cases). Encoding mismatches for EuroSCORE items have been either assigned to human errors related to interpretation or conflicting information in the charts. Both situations may reflect structural weaknesses of the EuroSCORE. Conclusions: The EuroSCORE is a widely used score, but its predictive power and reliability are declining due to changes in cardiac surgery case mix and outcomes in recent years. The present work highlights the fact that the encoding system in the EuroSCORE still gives room for interpretation. Along with other possible modifications described elsewhere, it is suggested that reliability and predicting ability of the score might be increased by changes in some definitions of risk factors and by the use of numeric values instead of intervals of values.     

Social and emotional factors as predictors of poor outcomes following cardiac surgery

 Open in a separate windowOBJECTIVESExisting risk prediction models in cardiac surgery stratify individuals based on their predicted risk, including only medical and physiological factors. However, the complex nature of risk assessment and the lack of parameters representing non-medical aspects of patients’ lives point towards the need for a broader paradigm in cardiac surgery. Objectives were to evaluate the predictive value of emotional and social factors on 4 outcomes; death within 90 days, prolonged stay in intensive care (≥72 h), prolonged hospital admission (≥10 days) and readmission within 90 days following cardiac surgery, as a supplement to traditional risk assessment by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE).METHODSThe study included adults undergoing cardiac surgery in Denmark 2014–2017 including information on register-based socio-economic factors, and, in a nested subsample, self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depression. Logistic regression analyses were conducted, adjusted for EuroSCORE, of variables reflecting social and emotional factors.RESULTSAmongst 7874 included patients, lower educational level (odds ratio 1.33; 95% confidence interval 1.17–1.51) and living alone (1.25; 1.14–1.38) were associated with prolonged hospital admission after adjustment for EuroSCORE. Lower educational level was also associated with prolonged intensive care unit stay (1.27; 1.00–1.63). Having a high income was associated with decreased odds of prolonged hospital admission (0.78; 0.70–0.87). No associations or predictive value for symptoms of anxiety or depression were found on any outcomes.CONCLUSIONSSocial disparity is predictive of poor outcomes following cardiac surgery. Symptoms of anxiety and depression are frequent especially amongst patients with a high-risk profile according to EuroSCORE.Subj collection105, 123     

Carcinoid of the Rectum Risk Stratification (CaRRs): A Strategy for Preoperative Outcome Assessment

Background Predicting rectal carcinoid behavior based exclusively on tumor size is imprecise. We sought to identify factors associated with outcome and incorporate them into a pre-operative risk stratification scheme. Methods Seventy rectal carcinoid patients evaluated at our institution were identified. Demographic, clinical, and histopathologic data were collected and correlated with recurrence and survival. Results The mean age of our cohort was 53.6 years. Fifty-seven percent of patients were female. The mean tumor size was 1.3 cm (range: 0.1–5 cm). Twenty-five percent of patients had deeply invasive tumors (into the muscularis propria or deeper); an equal percentage had tumors with lymphovascular invasion (LVI) or an elevated mitotic rate (≥2/50 HPF). Eleven patients (17%) had distant metastases at presentation. Sixty-one patients were followed for a median of 22 months (2–308 months), during which seven patients developed recurrence and seven died of disease (2/7 who developed recurrence). Poor outcome was associated with large tumor size, deep invasion, presence of LVI, and elevated mitotic rate. These factors were incorporated into a carcinoid of the rectum risk stratification (CaRRS) score. CaRRS predicted recurrence-free and disease-specific survival better than any single factor alone. Conclusions Poor prognostic features of rectal carcinoids include: large size, deep invasion, LVI, and elevated mitotic rate. The CaRRS score incorporates these features and accurately predicts outcome. Because the CaRRS score is based upon values available on pre-operative biopsy, it can identify patients with very favorable prognosis as well as those with poor prognosis that may benefit from additional staging or surveillance.     

Carcinoid of the Rectum Risk Stratification (CaRRS): A Strategy for Preoperative Outcome Assessment

Background Predicting rectal carcinoid behavior exclusively on the basis of tumor size is imprecise. We sought to identify factors associated with outcome and incorporate them into a preoperative risk stratification scheme. Methods Seventy patients with rectal carcinoid evaluated at our institution were identified. Demographic, clinical, and histopathologic data were collected and correlated with recurrence and survival. Results The mean age of our cohort was 53.6 years. Fifty-seven percent of patients were women. The mean tumor size was 1.3 cm (range, .1–5 cm). Twenty-five percent of patients had deeply invasive tumors (into the muscularis propria or deeper); an equal percentage had tumors with lymphovascular invasion (LVI) or an increased mitotic rate (two or more mitoses per 50 high-power fields). Eleven patients (17%) had distant metastases at presentation. Sixty-one patients were followed for a median of 22 months (range, 2–308 months), during which seven patients developed recurrence and seven died of disease (including two of seven whose disease recurred). Poor outcome was associated with large tumor size, deep invasion, presence of LVI, and increased mitotic rate. These factors were incorporated into a Carcinoid of the Rectum Risk Stratification (CaRRS) score. CaRRS predicted recurrence-free and disease-specific survival better than any single factor alone. Conclusions Poor prognostic features of rectal carcinoids include large size, deep invasion, LVI, and increased mitotic rate. The CaRRS score incorporates these features and accurately predicts outcome. Because the CaRRS score is based on values available by preoperative biopsy, it can identify patients with favorable prognosis and those with poor prognosis who may benefit from additional staging or surveillance.     

Identification of risk factors associated with the development of skin tears in hospitalised older persons: a case–control study

To identify the risk factors associated with the development of skin tears in older persons four hundred and fifty three patients (151 cases and 302 controls) were enrolled in a case–control study in a 500‐bed metropolitan tertiary hospital in Western Australia between December 2008 and June 2009. Case eligibility was defined by a skin tear on admission, which had occurred in the last 5 days; or, a skin tear developed during hospitalisation. For each case, two controls who did not have a skin tear and had been admitted within 1 day of the case, were also enrolled. Data collected from the nursing staff and inpatient medical records included characteristics known, or hypothesised, to be associated with increased vulnerability to skin tears. Data analysis included a series of multivariate stepwise regressions to identify a number of different potential explanatory models. The most parsimonious model for predicting skin tear development comprised six variables: ecchymosis (bruising); senile purpura; haematoma; evidence of a previously healed skin tear; oedema; and inability to reposition oneself independently. The ability of these six characteristics to predict who among older patients could subsequently develop a skin tear now needs to be determined by a prospective study.     

Living with a `women's disease': risk appraisal and management among men with osteoporosis

Background

There is clear evidence that men suffer from osteoporosis (OP) in increasing numbers, but that men commonly remain underdiagnosed, undertreated and experience poorer outcomes than do women. The widespread sociocultural association of OP with postmenopausal women reflects their greater risk for developing the disorder, but the sexing of OP as a women's disease disadvantages at-risk men.

Methods

This paper reports on qualitative data gathered from 23 community-residing men who have an OP diagnosis.

Results

Interviews with men reveal that the sexing of OP as a female disease may affect men's risk appraisal. Men clearly associate OP risk factors with women and accordingly may feel protected from the disorder. Subsequent to diagnosis, men's OP-related risk management strategies reveal that men's gender identity constrains their ability to enact risk-reducing behavior.

Conclusions

Men may internalize the association of OP with women and incorporate it into a sense of perceived invulnerability to the condition, which, in turn, contributes to delayed diagnosis and treatment. Limited male-specific treatment and support options as well as social expectations of male gender performance play roles in men's health behavior.     

非体外循环冠状动脉旁路移植术后早期死亡风险预测——SinoSCORE与EuroSCORE评分的对比

目的 比较中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术评分系统(SinoSCORE)和欧洲心脏外科手术风险评分系统(EuroSCORE)对中国人群非体外循环冠状动脉旁路移植(OPCAB)术后早期死亡风险的预测价值.方法 OPCAB病人资料来自中国心血管外科注册登记研究2004-2005年数据库,观察终点为术后院内死亡.分别用SinoSCORE和logistic EuroSCORE两种模型计算病人预计病死率,并与实际病死率比较.校准度采用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验,利用 ROC曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型的区分度.结果 4920例病人中73例发生院内死亡,实际病死率1.48%,SinoSCORE模型和EuroSCORE模型预测的病死率分别为2.73%、4.13%.SinoSCORE模型Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验P=0.636,AUC=0.794;EuroSCORE模型Hosmer-Lemeshowrny拟合优度检验P=0.01,AUC=0.756.SinoSCORE和logistic EuroSCORE两种模型的区分度均较好,但SinoSCORE的校准度明显优于后者,即两种模型均能预测术后死亡,但SinoSCORE对术后病死率的预测更加准确.结论 SinoSCORE模型比EuroSCORE模型更适用于中国非体外循环冠状动脉旁路移植病人术后早期死亡预测.     

Assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction may invalidate the reliability of EuroSCORE

Objective: To evaluate the impact of different echocardiographic methods for assessment of left ventricular dysfunction on the predictive value of EuroSCORE and thus its reliability in daily practice and benchmarking. Methods: Twenty-five recordings obtained by transthoracic echocardiography, optimal for study using four different echocardiographic methods, were examined and placed into relevant EuroSCORE classes. The four methods were eyeballing, Wall Motion Index, Simpson 2D volumetric method and Motion mode. Results: Bland and Altman plots showed that the three specific methods were not fully interchangeable. Using eyeballing as the key reference, only 44% of patients were placed in the same EuroSCORE class with all four methods. The quantitative echocardiographic methods in general overestimate the ejection fraction compared to eyeballing. Conclusion: The left ventricular dysfunction factor in the EuroSCORE risk assessment system needs a more precise definition.     

Timing and methods of frailty assessments in geriatric trauma patients: A systematic review

IntroductionThe trauma population is aging and better prognostic measures for geriatric trauma patients are required. Frailty rather than age appears to be associated with poor outcomes. This systematic review aimed to identify the optimum frailty assessment instrument and timing of assessment in patients aged over 65 years admitted to hospital after traumatic injury. The secondary aim was to evaluate outcomes associated with frailty in elderly trauma populations.MethodsThis systematic review was registered with the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42018090620). A MEDLINE and EMBASE literature search was conducted from inception to June 2019 combining the concepts of injury, geriatric, frailty, assessment and prognosis. Included studies were in patients 65 years or older hospitalised after injury and exposed to an instrument meeting consensus definition for frailty assessment. Study quality was assessed using criteria for review of prognostic studies combined with a GRADE approach.ResultsTwenty-eight papers met inclusion criteria. Twenty-eight frailty or component instruments were reported, and assessments of pre-injury frailty were made up to 1-year post injury. Pre-injury frailty prevalence varied from 13% (13/100) to 94% (17/18), with in-hospital mortality rates from 2% (5/250) to 33% (6/18). Eleven studies found an association between frailty and mortality. Eleven studies reported an association between frailty and a composite outcome of mortality and adverse discharge destination. Generalisability and assessment of strength of associations was limited by single centre studies with inconsistent findings and overlapping cohorts.ConclusionsAssociations between frailty and adverse outcomes including mortality in geriatric trauma patients were demonstrated despite a range of frailty instruments, administering clinicians, time of assessment and data sources. Although evidence gaps remain, incorporating frailty assessment into trauma systems is likely to identify geriatric patients at risk of adverse outcomes. Consistency in frailty instruments and long-term geriatric specific outcome measures will improve research relevance.Level of evidence: Level III prognostic.     

Disparity in the risk stratification of major surgery

This case report illustrates the dilemma of risk prediction. In the objective documentation of peri-operative risk, cardiopulmonary testing offers a holistic assessment. At present, availability is limited and, as such, it is important to be mindful of the limitations of other more traditional forms of risk assessment.     

基于Group Lasso的Logistic回归模型构建绝经后骨质疏松性骨折初发风险评估工具

目的构建符合北京、上海两地40~65岁女性人口学特征的危险因素和中医症状相结合的骨质疏松性骨折早期风险预测工具。方法本研究采用注册登记式研究的方法,对2009年3月-8月在北京市东城区及上海市徐汇区收集的1129例40~65岁女性骨质疏松症高危人群的危险因素及中医症状信息,进行连续3年的登记观察。采用SMOTE过抽样算法平衡数据,基于Group Lasso的Logistic回归模型筛选与骨质疏松症骨折有关的危险因素及中医症状,建立骨质疏松性骨折风险评估工具。结果基于R 3.3.3软件的Grplasso包,在不同λ水平上,我们进行对绝经后骨质疏松性骨折的危险因素与中医证候要素的学习。最终结合数理与医理,认为λ=0.0235时遴选出的变量最佳。具体组变量包括:骨密度(bone mineral density,BMD)、年龄、食物类、身高、月经情况、孕产次数和肝肾阴虚。进而基于Logistic回归模型得出骨质疏松性骨折预测工具:P=-1.88+0.437*BMD+0.289*年龄+0.023*大米面条-0.007*奶制品-0.096*豆制品-0.128*肉类-0.084*鱼类-0.007*新鲜蔬菜-0.018*蛋类+0.047*海藻类+0.048*身高-0.035*是否变矮-0.081*初潮年龄+0.171*是否绝经+0.121*绝经年限+0.039*怀孕次数+0.192*生产次数-0.056*子宫卵巢是否切除+0.05*手足烦热-0.094*盗汗+0.008*腿软+0.15*目眩-0.048*视物模糊-0.045*目睛干涩-0.089*恶热+0.08*脱发+0.034*齿摇-0.101*口苦+0.004*易怒+0.054*午后潮热-0.056*失眠+0.019*多梦易惊-0.02*胸胁苦满+0.137*下肢转筋。对该预测模型预测概率绘制受试者工作特征曲线,结果显示曲线下面积为0.8775(95%CI=0.8412~0.9138)。结论初步建立了基于北京、上海人口学特征40~65岁女性骨质疏松性骨折早期风险预测工具。     

Hussman病情和体质状况评估方法预测围术期并发症

目的探讨Hussman病情和体质状况评估方法预测围术期并发症的作用。方法2015年5月至2016年5月各科手术患者2 494例,男1 462例,女1 032例,采用Hussman病情和体质状况评估方法进行风险评估,观察并记录围术期并发症的发生情况。结果 2 494例患者围术期发生并发症336例(13.47%),其中心血管并发症是主要并发症,占80.7%。风险等级1、2、3、4、5级患者分别有1 540例(61.75%)、660例(26.46%)、202例(8.10%)、80例(3.21%)和12例(0.48%),发生并发症分别有112例(7.28%)、82例(12.42%)、82例(40.59%)、50例(62.50%)和10例(83.33%),敏感度分别为33.33%、24.40%、24.40%、14.88%和2.78%,特异度分别为33.76%、73.26%、94.44%、98.61%和99.91%,准确度分别为33.76%、66.64%、85.01%、87.33%和86.85%。结论 Hussman病情和体质状况评估方法能较好地预测围术期并发症。     

麻醉风险评估和分级管理的软件开发和应用

目的开发麻醉风险评估和分级管理平台的软件,促进麻醉风险的评估和分级管理。方法系统软件采用VFP9．0关系型数据库语言和Visual Studio 2015编程,其中麻醉患者风险评估方法参照Hussman、Aust和“Lemon”等方法。结果开发了Windows环境下运行的麻醉风险评估和分级管理系统,包括患者信息库、风险评估、风险分级管理、过程考核、查询统计以及知识库6个模块。实现对手术患者风险识别和评估、分级管理、智能信息档案以及过程考核等过程进行管理。结论此系统有利于麻醉患者风险评估和分级管理,操作简单容易。     

Risk evaluation and patient assessment in sedation

Risk assessment gives a good clinical guide to the understanding of our patients' medical problems. The dentist can cope with problems related to patients belonging to risks group 1 and 2, but not to groups 3 or 4. The results of studies on risks, morbidity, and mortality in anaesthesia teach us that the human factor and technical error provoke complications, morbidity and mortality, seemingly unnecessarily. Case history and a simple physical examination, primarily concentrated on respiration and circulation, are of greatest importance. Main risks during conscious sedation are regurgitation and aspiration of fluid and smaller objects, such as a broken dentist's drill or a cardiac complication. Most feared is the risk of of a reinfarcation. The aim of sedation is to reduce anxiety and restlessness. Of greatest importance is thorough patient information and a good doctor–patient contact.