Predictive Value of POSSUM and ACPGBI Scoring in Mortality and Morbidity of Colorectal Resection: A Case–Control Study

Background  

Preoperative risk prediction to assess mortality and morbidity may be helpful to surgical decision making. The aim of this study was to compare mortality and morbidity of colorectal resections performed in a tertiary referral center with mortality and morbidity as predicted with physiological and operative score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). The second aim of this study was to analyze the accuracy of different POSSUM scores in surgery performed for malignancy, inflammatory bowel diseases, and diverticulitis. POSSUM scoring was also evaluated in colorectal resection in acute vs. elective setting. In procedures performed for malignancy, the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) score was assessed in the same way for comparison.     

Assessing Surgical Quality: Comparison of General and Procedure-Specific Morbidity Estimation Models for the Risk Adjustment of Pancreaticoduodenectomy Outcomes

Introduction

The use of outcomes to evaluate surgical quality implies the need for detailed risk adjustment. The physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a generally applicable risk adjustment model suitable for pancreatic surgery. A pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD)-specific intraoperative pancreatic risk assessment (IPRA) estimates the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and associated morbidity based on factors that are not incorporated into POSSUM.

Objective

The aim of the study was to compare the risk estimations of POSSUM and IPRA in patients undergoing PD.

Methods

An observational single-center cohort study was conducted including 195 patients undergoing PD in 2008–2010. POSSUM and IPRA data were recorded prospectively. Incidence and severity of postoperative morbidity was recorded according to established definitions. The cohort was grouped by POSSUM and IPRA risk groups. The estimated and observed outcomes and morbidity profiles of POSSUM and IPRA were scrutinized.

Results

POSSUM-estimated risk (62 %) corresponded with observed total morbidity (65 %). Severe morbidity was 17 % and in-hospital-mortality 3.1 %. Individual and grouped POSSUM risk estimates did not reveal associations with incidence (p = 0.637) or severity (p = 0.321) of total morbidity or POPF. The IPRA model identified patients with high POPF risk (p < 0.001), but was even associated with incidence (p < 0.001) and severity (p < 0.001) of total morbidity.

Conclusion

The risk factors defined by a PD-specific model were significantly stronger predictive indicators for the incidence and severity of postoperative morbidity than the factors incorporated in POSSUM. If available, reliable procedure-specific risk factors should be utilized in the risk adjustment of surgical outcomes. For pancreatic surgery, generally applicable tools such as POSSUM still have to prove their relevance.     

POSSUM scoring for patients with fractured neck of femur

Background. POSSUM scoring is validated as an audit tool ingeneral and orthopaedic surgery. It is also used for preoperativetriage to assess perioperative risk. However its ability topredict mortality in specific surgical subgroups, such as patientswith fractured neck of the femur, has not been studied. Thisstudy assessed the predictive capability of POSSUM for 30-daymortality after surgery for fractured neck of femur. Methods. A cohort study was conducted in Queen's Medical Centre,Nottingham over a period of nearly 2 yr. Complete data from1164 patients were analysed to compare the mortality predictedby POSSUM and the observed mortality. POSSUM risk of death wascalculated using the original POSSUM equation, with modificationsto the operative score appropriate for orthopaedic surgery. Results. POSSUM predicted 181 (15.6%) deaths and the observedmortality was 119 (10.2%). The area under the receiver operatingcharacteristic curve was 0.62, indicating poor performance bythe POSSUM equation. Conclusion. POSSUM overpredicts mortality in hip fracture patients.It should be used with caution whether as an audit tool or forpreoperative triage. An abstract of part of the study was presented at the AnaestheticResearch Society meeting, Aberdeen, April 2004 and publishedin British Journal of Anaesthesia 2004; 93: 161.     

Evaluation of the POSSUM scoring system for comparative audit in pancreatic surgery

BACKGROUND: Wide variations exist in the reported morbidity and mortality rates for major pancreatic resections. The Physiological and Operative Scoring System for enUmeration of Morbidity and mortality (POSSUM) was developed for comparative audit in general surgical patients. It has also been found to be reliable for audit in colorectal, thoracic and vascular surgery with minor modifications. AIMS: To evaluate POSSUM and its modification for mortality, P-POSSUM, in pancreatic surgery. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 50 patients undergoing partial pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (46 tumours, 4 chronic pancreatitis) using the POSSUM and P-POSSUM as predictors of morbidity and mortality. These were then compared with the observed values. RESULTS: The POSSUM-predicted mortality was 26%. The P-POSSUM predicted a mortality risk of 6%. The observed mortality was 4%. Using POSSUM for morbidity, the predicted value was 76%. The observed morbidity was 46%. The risk scores for patients with and without morbidity were similar (66.4 +/- 11.0 vs. 68.8 +/- 12.9, p = 0.49). CONCLUSIONS: While P-POSSUM appeared satisfactory for predicting mortality risk, POSSUM overestimated morbidity and mortality for PD in a specialist centre. Modifications are needed prior to its application for comparative audit in pancreatic surgery.     

POSSUM and P-POSSUM as Predictors of Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Undergoing Hepato-biliary-pancreatic Surgery: A Meta-analysis

Background

Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) models are used extensively to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in general surgery. The aim was to undertake the first meta-analysis of the predictive value of these models in patients undergoing hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery.

Methods

Eligible articles were identified by searches of electronic databases from 1991 to 2012. All data were specific to hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery. Predictive value of morbidity and mortality were assessed by calculating weighted observed to expected (O/E) ratios. Subanalysis was also performed.

Results

Sixteen studies were included in final review. The morbidity analysis included nine studies on POSSUM with a weighted O/E ratio of 0.78 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.68–0.88]. The mortality analysis included seven studies on POSSUM and nine studies on P-POSSUM (Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality). Weighted O/E ratios for mortality were 0.35 (95 % CI 0.17–0.54) for POSSUM and 0.95 (95 % CI 0.65–1.25) for P-POSSUM. POSSUM had more accuracy to predict morbidity after pancreatic surgery (O/E ratio 0.82; 95 % CI 0.72–0.92) than after hepatobiliary surgery (O/E ratio 0.66; 95 % CI 0.57–0.74), in large sample size studies (O/E ratio 0.90; 95 % CI 0.85–0.96) than in small sample size studies (O/E ratio 0.69; 95 % CI 0.59–0.79).

Conclusions

POSSUM overpredicted postoperative morbidity after hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery. Predictive value of POSSUM to morbidity was affected by the type of surgery and the sample size of studies. Compared with POSSUM, P-POSSUM was more accurate for predicting postoperative mortality. Modifications to POSSUM and P-POSSUM are needed for audit in hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery.     

POSSUM scoring system as an instrument of audit in lung resection surgery. Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity

BACKGROUND: The physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a scoring system that was validated in general surgery with the aim of being used as an instrument to evaluate surgical outcome. We applied POSSUM to a population of lung resection candidates to assess its capability to predict postoperative complications. METHODS: Two hundred fifty lung resection candidates were prospectively evaluated from 1993 through 1996. The POSSUM value was entered along with other variables (sex, smoking history, type of resection, pulmonary function tests, arterial carbon dioxide, serum albumin level, total lymphocyte count, neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and diabetes) in a multivariate analysis to identify independent predictors of postoperative morbidity. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis showed POSSUM was predictive of postoperative complications, showing no significant difference between predicted and observed morbidity (chi2 test, p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We think POSSUM can be appropriately used as a tool of surgical audit in lung resection operations.     

Validation of risk assessment scoring systems for an audit of elective surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in elderly patients: an audit

The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.     

Comparison of POSSUM scoring and the Hardman Index in selection of patients for repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND: The aim was to assess to what extent the POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity) and Hardman scoring systems were predictive of outcome after surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA). METHODS: From January 1990 to December 2001, 232 patients presented with RAAA. Forty-one were treated conservatively and all died; the remainder had emergency surgery. The case notes of all but three of these patients were reviewed retrospectively. POSSUM and Hardman scores were calculated and related to mortality. RESULTS: The mortality rate after emergency repair was 54 per cent (104 of 191). The physiology-only POSSUM score specific for RAAA and the Hardman Index score were both significantly associated with increased mortality after operation (P < 0.001). Most non-operated patients were in the highest risk bands. CONCLUSION: Both POSSUM and Hardman scoring systems predicted outcome after emergency surgery for RAAA. The Hardman Index was simpler to calculate, but POSSUM identified a higher number of patients at risk. Risk scoring may help identify patients with RAAA for whom surgery is futile.     

Assessment of the surgical risk of 1,000 consecutive episodes using the POSSUM system. Comparison between elective and emergency gastrointestinal surgery

IntroductionThe aim of the present study was to assess the predictive capacity of the POSSUM system in a Spanish university hospital, and to determine its behaviour in elective gastrointestinal surgery and compare it with emergency gastrointestinal surgery (operation < 24 hours).Patients and methodA total of 1,000 surgical episodes corresponding to 909 patients who required hospital admission, operated on under general or loco-regional anaesthesia, either in the elective (n= 547 episodes) or the emergency setting (n= 453), were included in the study.ResultsThe overall morbidity was 31.9% (32.8% in elective surgery; 30.7% in emergency surgery). The discriminatory capacity of the POSSUM scale, evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, was higher for the Portsmouth variant of mortality (Area Under the Curve [AUC] = 0,92) than for morbidity (AUC= 0,74). The goodness of fit between the expected values using the POSSUM scale and those observed was reduced for morbidity (Hosmer-Lemeshow [H-L] = 164.1; p< 0.05). The POSSUM scale predicted a higher number of deaths than those observed, although the Portsmouth variant was better at predicting mortality. The goodness of fit for morbidity was better for elective gastrointestinal surgery (H-L= 27.7) than emergency gastrointestinal surgery (H-L= 177.3). The logistic regression analysis identified (besides the estimated risk using the POSSUM scale itself), surgical complexity, surgery type (elective, emergency), and age of patient, as significant predictive factors of morbidity and mortality.ConclusionsIn a Spanish university hospital, the POSSUM system adequately predicts morbidity risk in elective gastrointestinal surgery, and over-estimates morbidity risk in emergency gastrointestinal surgery.     

Risk evaluation in cutaneous melanoma patients undergoing lymph node dissection: impact of POSSUM

INTRODUCTIONWhen lymphatic metastasis occurs, surgery is the primary treatment modality in melanoma patients. Depending on the tumour stage, patients receive a completion lymph node dissection (CLND) when a positive sentinel node is detected. Patients with clinically evident disease of the regional lymph nodes are recommended to undergo a therapeutic lymph node dissection (TLND). The aim of this study was to assess the morbidity of CLND and TLND and to evaluate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) for preoperative risk adjustment of postoperative morbidity.METHODSThe hospital files of 143 patients who underwent CLND and TLND for malignant melanoma were analysed. The POSSUM score was used to predict morbidity rates after surgery for the total patient group as well as separated for CLND and TLND patients.RESULTSThe overall complication rate was 28.0% and the mortality rate was 0%. The morbidity rate predicted by POSSUM was 32.9%, the mortality 8.3%. Morbidity in patients undergoing CLND was significantly higher with regard to overall wound complications compared with patients with TLND. In these subgroups, POSSUM failed to predict the rates precisely.CONCLUSIONSThe POSSUM score predicted the morbidity of the total patient group accurately but failed to predict the rates in the TLND and CLND subgroups. Patients receiving CLND showed the highest morbidity rates. Preoperative sentinel lymph node biopsy therefore has more influence on postoperative morbidity than the physiological parameters represented in the POSSUM physiological score.     

Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden — A prospective observational study

Background

Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth‐POSSUM (P‐POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group.

Methods

This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out‐of‐hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC).

Results

The 30‐day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by POSSUM, occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for POSSUM, P‐POSSUM and NHFS scores for 30‐day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast, POSSUM predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the ROC curves for the scoring systems was 0.60‐0.67.

Conclusion

The POSSUM score and NHFS show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.     

POSSUM评分预测胃肠道肿瘤患者术后并发症发生率和死亡率的价值

目的探讨POSSUM评分系统评估胃肠道肿瘤患者手术后并发症发生率和死亡率的临床价值。方法对171例胃肠道肿瘤患者分别在术后立即进行生理学和手术侵袭度评分,预测术后发生并发症和死亡的危险性,同时观察术后并发症发生率和死亡率的实际值,并与预测值进行比较。结果POSSUM评分预测并发症发生例数为75例,与实际并发症发生的96例比较,差异无显著性意义(P=0.3529)。POSSUM评分预测死亡例数为22例,与实际死亡的17例比较,差异也无显著性意义(P=0.3326)。结论POSSUM评分能较好地评估胃肠道肿瘤手术的预后。     

Outcome of elective primary surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon: a risk analysis based on the POSSUM scoring system

BACKGROUND: The outcome of surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon remains largely unclear. A comparison of studies is hardly possible because risk factors for diverticular disease severity and patient-related risk factors are lacking. The purpose of this study was to define morbidity and mortality of primary surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon and to identify the risk factors that predict a higher morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Patients who underwent elective surgery for complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon (n = 149) were identified in a prospective computerized morbidity and mortality registration. In all patients, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) was calculated, as were the morbidity and mortality rates. Factors predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality were identified. To audit mortality figures, a POSSUM based scoring system is introduced. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 4.7% and morbidity rate was 53.7%. Significantly higher morbidity rates were correlated with a higher physiological POSSUM score (P = 0.010). Non-survivors were older (P = 0.029) and also had a higher physiological POSSUM score (P < 0.001) and operation severity POSSUM score (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The morbidity and mortality rates of surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon are considerable. To a large extent, mortality and morbidity are driven by patient- and disease-related factors, as expressed by elevated physiological severity and operative severity scores and failures of peri-operative management in most deceased patients.     

Should elective surgery for chronic pancreatitis be performed in high-risk patients?

As morbidity and mortality rates for pancreatic surgery have improved over the past decades, patients with major medical comorbidities have been considered for operative treatment. The influence of poor health status on operative morbidity in patients with chronic pancreatitis is evaluated in this study. The records of 313 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 78), distal pancreatectomy (n = 83), or lateral pancreaticojejunostomy (n = 152) for chronic pancreatitis were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Patients' risk for adverse outcome resulting from overall health status was audited using age, comorbidities, and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) physiological score. Univariate analysis showed that patient's age did not contribute to change in morbidity (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01, P = 0.59). The presence of cardiac disease but not other comorbidities increased adverse outcome affected the need for intensive care unit stay and length of hospital stay (morbidity: 29% vs. 51%, OR = 2.6, P = 0.003). POSSUM physiological score was associated with an increase in morbidity and mortality (morbidity: OR = 1.16, P = 0.001; mortality: OR = 1.49, P = 0.001), in particular intraabdominal abscesses. Multivariate analysis showed that the only variable independently correlating with perioperative complications was POSSUM physiological score. Single comorbidities do not independently influence outcome after operations for chronic pancreatitis. A combination of several comorbidities is associated with an increase in postoperative infectious morbidity and mortality. High-risk patients should not be excluded from operative treatment, but need to be closely selected on a case-by-case basis.     

Pancreatectomy with synchronous vascular resection--an argument in favour

BackgroundThe first case-series of pancreatectomy with synchronous en-bloc vascular resection with the aim to improve pancreatic cancer survival was published in 1977. Advances in surgical techniques, intensive care management and teaching centers with high volume cases have dramatically reduced mortality and morbidity of major pancreatic resections. This has led to a progressively wider use of venous and/or arterial resections during pancreatic surgery in selected patients to achieve negative resection margins.MethodsWe review the current literature and discuss our experience in pancreatectomies with en-bloc vascular resections.ResultsSurvival of patients with pancreatic cancer who undergo an R0 resection with venous reconstruction is comparable to those who have a standard pancreaticoduodenectomy with no added mortality or morbidity. Conversely, arterial resection is associated with a higher morbidity, mortality and overall poorer survival, perhaps reflecting more advanced disease.ConclusionsSince the need for vascular resection may not be always apparent on pre-operative imaging, surgeons who perform major pancreatic surgery should be familiar with vascular resection and reconstruction techniques in order to offer to these patients the best chance to prolong survival.     

Effect of surgical work volume on postoperative complication: superiority of specialized center in gastric cancer treatment

Purpose  We investigated the risk factors for early postoperative complications after gastric cancer surgery. Materials and methods  The data from a total of 273 patients with gastric cancer were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis. We applied physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of morbidity and mortality (POSSUM) to compare risk-adjusted surgical outcomes among different surgical units. Results  Among the preoperative variables, patient gender, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, surgical unit, and intraoperative blood loss were independent risk factors for a higher rate of postoperative complications. There were significant differences in complication rates among different surgical units (P = 0.001). The observed-to-expected morbidity ratio (O-to-E ratio) ranged from 0.81 to 1.63. Units with low surgical work volume had higher complication rates. Postoperative length of stay was significantly shorter (P = 0.000) and the rate of moderate and severe complications was significantly lower (P = 0.001) in specialized unit. Conclusions  POSSUM is a valid system for risk-adjusted evaluation of surgical outcomes. We conclude that surgical experience and work volume greatly influence the outcome, with overall surgical outcome in specialized centers superior to that in other units. Hence, gastric cancer surgery should be performed in specialized centers. Risk factors identified in this study need further confirmation by a prospective study involving a larger cohort.     

Robotic-assisted versus open total pancreatectomy: a propensity score-matched study

BackgroundTotal pancreatectomy (TP) is a complex surgical procedure with significant postoperative morbidity. Despite the narrowed range of indications for TP, the introduction of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the increasing complexity of surgical resections performed in high-volume centers has increased the number of annually performed TPs, especially regarding malignant disease. The introduction of robotic-assisted pancreatic surgery has provided a novel and minimally invasive approach for TP, yet the feasibility of this technique is still unknown. This study assessed the safety and efficacy of robotic-assisted total pancreatectomy (RTP) compared to conventional open total pancreatectomy (OTP).MethodsAll patients who underwent TP between March 2015 and July 2019 in a high-volume institution for pancreatic surgery were included in this retrospective study. Clinical data and perioperative outcomes were derived from the prospectively maintained institutional database. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) method was utilized to compare the RTP and OTP cohorts to minimize bias.ResultsA standardized surgical protocol was utilized for RTP following a learning curve of RPD and RDP. The median operative time for patients who underwent RTP was significantly decreased compared to those who underwent OTP [300 (IQR, 250–360) vs. 360 min (IQR, 300–525), P=0.031]. Additionally, en bloc resection and spleen-preserving rates were also higher in the RTP cohort. Major 30-day morbidity (Clavien-Dindo > IIIa) and 90-day mortality were similar between the two cohorts. After a median follow-up time of 15 (IQR, 8–24) months, both the RTP and OTP cohorts had a comparable quality of life regarding exocrine and endocrine insufficiency.ConclusionsRTP appears to be safe and feasible when utilized in high-volume centers for the indicated management of benign and highly selected malignant pancreatic disease. However, further prospective randomized studies are needed to assess the feasibility of this approach.     

The concept of damage control: extending the paradigm to emergency general surgery

OBJECTIVE: A damage control (DC) approach was developed to improve survival in severely injured trauma patients. The role of DC in acute surgery (AS) patients who are critically ill, as a result of sepsis or overwhelming haemorrhage continues to evolve. The goal of this study was to assess morbidity and mortality of AS patients who underwent DC, and to compare observed and predicted morbidity and mortality as calculated from APACHE II and physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) scores. METHODS: Consecutive acute surgery patients who underwent DC from 2002 to 2004 were included. Retrospectively collected data included patient demographics, physiological parameters, surgical indications and procedures, mortality, morbidity, as well as volumes of crystalloid and colloid (plasma and red blood cell) resuscitation. Observed mortality and complications were compared to those calculated from APACHE II and POSSUM scores. Data were analysed using the Mann-Whitney test for median values, chi-square and Fisher's exact tests for proportions. RESULTS: Sixteen patients (mean age 53 years, seven men, nine women) underwent DC. The most common indications for DC included abdominal sepsis (6/15), intraoperative bleeding (5/15), and bowel ischaemia (3/15). The mean intraoperative blood loss during the index procedure was 2060mL. There were 2.4 average procedures per patient. At the end of DC II (36.5h), mean infusion of crystalloid was 17L, packed red blood cells was 3.6L, and plasma was 3L. Eight of 16 patients required vasopressor administration during resuscitation. At 28 days, there were five unexpected survivors as predicted by POSSUM and three by APACHE II (observed mortality seven, predicted mortality by the two methods: 12 (P=0.074), and 10 (P=0.24), respectively). Five patients died prior to definitive abdominal closure. Split thickness skin grafting (4/16) and primary fascial closure (4/16) constituted the most common methods of abdominal closure. Surgical morbidity predicted by POSSUM (98%) and actual morbidity (100%) were similar. CONCLUSION: Although the morbidity and mortality of AS patients undergoing DC is high, the application of DC principles in this group may reduce mortality compared to that predicted by POSSUM or APACHE II. In order to adequately demonstrate this contention, large, multi-institutional studies of DC in AS patients need to be performed. The POSSUM score appears to accurately estimate the high morbidity in general surgery DC patients, and supports the importance of team management of these complex patients by acute care surgery specialists.     

Evaluation of POSSUM in patients with oesophageal cancer undergoing resection

BACKGROUND: The Physiogical and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) has been used to produce a numerical estimate of expected mortality and morbidity after a variety of general surgical procedures. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of POSSUM to predict mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing oesophagectomy. METHODS: POSSUM predictor equations for morbidity and mortality were applied retrospectively to 204 patients who had undergone oesophagectomy for cancer. Observed morbidity and mortality rates were compared with rates predicted by POSSUM using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Evaluation of the discriminative capability of POSSUM predictor equations was performed using receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The observed and predicted mortality rates were 12.7 and 19.1 per cent respectively, and the respective morbidity rates were 53.4 and 62.3 per cent. However, the POSSUM model showed a poor fit with the data both for the observed 30-day mortality (chi2 = 16.26, P = 0.002) and morbidity (chi2 = 63.14, P < 0.001) using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. ROC curve analysis revealed that POSSUM had poor predictive accuracy both for mortality (area under curve 0.62) and morbidity (area under curve 0.55). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that POSSUM does not accurately predict mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing oesophagectomy and must be modified.     

Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Colorectal Surgery

Well-known and suitable instruments for surgical audit are the POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems. But these scores have not been well validated across the countries. The objective of the present study was to assess the predictive value of scores for colorectal surgery in France. Patients operated on for colorectal malignant or diverticular diseases, whether electively or on emergency basis, within a 4-month period were included in a prospective multicenter study conducted by the French Association for Surgery (Association Française de Chirurgie, AFC). The main outcome measure was postoperative in-hospital mortality. Independent factors leading to death were assessed by multivariate logistic regression analysis (AFC-index). The ratio of expected versus observed deaths was calculated, and the predictive value of the POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores were analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A total of 1426 patients were included. The in-hospital death rate was 3.4%. Four independent preoperative factors (AFC-index) have been found: emergency surgery, loss of more than 10% of weight, neurological disease history, and age > 70 years. POSSUM had a poor predictive value; it overestimated postoperative death in all cases. P-POSSUM had a good predictive value, except for elective surgery, where it overestimated postoperative death twofold. The predictive value of the AFC-index was also good. It had the same sensitivity and specificity as the P-POSSUM. POSSUM has not been validated in France in the field of colorectal surgery. P-POSSUM was as predictive as the AFC-index which is a simpler instrument based on four clinical parameters (without any mathematical formulas).