The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: results from the California tobacco policy simulation model

Tobacco control policies are examined utilizing a simulation model for California, the state with the longest running comprehensive program. We assess the impact of the California Tobacco Control Program (CTCP) and surrounding price changes on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Modeling begins in 1988 and progresses chronologically to 2004, and considers four types of policies (taxes, mass media, clean air laws, and youth access policies) independently and as a package. The model is validated against existing smoking prevalence estimates. The difference in trends between predicted smoking rates from the model and other commonly used estimates of smoking prevalence for the overall period were generally small. The model also predicted some important changes in trend, which occurred with changes in policy. The California SimSmoke model estimates that tobacco control policies reduced smoking rates in California by an additional 25% relative to the level that they would have been if policies were kept at their 1988 level. By 2004, the model attributes 59% of the reduction to price increases, 28% of the overall effect to media policies, 11% to clean air laws, and only a small percent to youth access policies. The model estimates that over 5000 lives will be saved in the year 2010 alone as a result of the CTCP and industry-initiated price increases, and that over 50,000 lives were saved over the period 1988-2010. Tobacco control policies implemented as comprehensive tobacco control strategies have significantly impacted smoking rates. Further tax increases should lead to additional lives saved, and additional policies may result in further impacts on smoking rates, and consequently on smoking-attributable health outcomes in the population.     

The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model

A simulation model is developed for Vietnam to project smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality. The model examines independently and as a package the effects of five types of tobacco control policies: tax increases, clean air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, and youth access policies. Predictions suggest that the largest reductions in smoking rates will result from implementing a comprehensive tobacco control policy package. Significant inroads may be achieved through tax increases. A media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates. Tobacco control policies have the potential to make large dents in smoking rates, which in turn could lead to many lives saved. In the absence of these measures, deaths from smoking will increase. The model also helps to identify information gaps pertinent both to modeling and policy-making.     

Tobacco Policies in Louisiana: Recommendations for Future Tobacco Control Investment from SimSmoke,a Policy Simulation Model

Despite the presence of tobacco control policies, Louisiana continues to experience a high smoking burden and elevated smoking-attributable deaths. The SimSmoke model provides projections of these health outcomes in the face of existing and expanded (simulated) tobacco control polices. The SimSmoke model utilizes population data, smoking rates, and various tobacco control policy measures from Louisiana to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The model begins in 1993 and estimates are projected through 2054. The model is validated against existing Louisiana smoking prevalence data. The most powerful individual policy measure for reducing smoking prevalence is cigarette excise tax. However, a comprehensive cessation treatment policy is predicted to save the most lives. A combination of tobacco control policies provides the greatest reduction in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The existing Louisiana excise tax ranks as one of the lowest in the country and the legislature is against further increases. Alternative policy measures aimed at lowering prevalence and attributable deaths are: cessation treatments, comprehensive smoke-free policies, and limiting youth access. These three policies have a substantial effect on smoking prevalence and attributable deaths and are likely to encounter more favor in the Louisiana legislature than increasing the state excise tax.     

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths caused by smoking in Arizona: results from the Arizona tobacco policy simulation model.

Arizona was one of the first few states to implement a comprehensive tobacco control program. The effect of that program is examined using a computer-simulation model (SimSmoke) developed for the purposes of evaluation, planning, and justifying policies. This approach assesses the impact to date of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and generates predictions about the effects of tobacco control policies on past and future smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality. SimSmoke estimates indicate that tobacco control policies reduced smoking rates in Arizona by about 20 percent over the period 1993-2002. A previous CDC study obtains similar effects, but does not net out the effects of individual policies. SimSmoke attributes much of the reduction, about 61 percent, to price increases and attributes 38 percent of the overall effect to media policies, leaving only a small percentage of the smoking reductions attributed to quitlines, youth access policies, and the weak clean air laws. Tobacco control policies implemented as comprehensive strategies have significantly affected smoking rates in Arizona, which leads to large reductions in deaths attributable to smoking. It will be important to maintain these efforts over time to reduce or keep smoking prevalence down and to minimize smoking-attributable deaths.     

Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: While Italy has implemented some tobacco control policies over the last few decades, which resulted in a decreased smoking prevalence, there is still considerable scope to strengthen tobacco control policies consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) policy guidelines. The present study aims to evaluate the effect of past and project the effect of future tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality in Italy. METHODS: To assess, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies, we used the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy. The model uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Italy. RESULTS: Significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tobacco price increases, high intensity media campaigns, comprehensive cessation treatment program, strong health warnings, stricter smoke-free air regulations and advertising bans, and youth access laws. With a comprehensive approach, the smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 12 % soon after the policies are in place, increasing to a 30 % reduction in the next twenty years and a 34 % reduction by 30 years in 2040. Without effective tobacco control policies, a total of almost 300 thousand lives will be prematurely lost due to smoking by the year 2040. CONCLUSION: Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model helps identify information gaps in surveillance and evaluation schemes that will promote the effectiveness of future tobacco control policy in Italy.     

Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico

We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.     

A computer simulation model of mass media interventions directed at tobacco use

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to develop a simulation model to examine the effects of tobacco control mass media interventions on smoking rates and smoking-attributable deaths. METHODS: The model projects the number of smokers and smoking-related deaths. Based on empirical and theoretical research, the effects of media interventions, varying in magnitude and duration, directed at all smokers and directed specifically at youth under age 18 are modeled. RESULTS: The model predicts that sustained media interventions of sufficient magnitude and duration directed at all smokers have the potential to substantially reduce the number of smokers and premature deaths, with the effects growing over time. For the same expenditures, youth interventions would appear to have smaller and more delayed effects. CONCLUSIONS: Media interventions, particularly those targeted at the general population and of sufficient scale and duration, have the ability to substantially reduce smoking rates and save lives, but their effects are likely to depend on how they are implemented.     

State-level tobacco control policies and youth smoking cessation measures

ObjectiveResearch on the effects of state-level tobacco control policies targeted at youth has been mixed, with little on the effects of these policies and youth smoking cessation. This study explored the association between state-level tobacco control policies and youth smoking cessation behaviors from 1991 to 2006.MethodsThe study design was a population-based, nested survey of students within states. Study participants were 8th, 10th, and 12th graders who reported smoking “regularly in the past” or “regularly now” from the Monitoring the Future study. Main cessation outcome measures were: any quit attempt; want to quit; non-continuation of smoking; and discontinuation of smoking.ResultsResults showed that cigarette price was positively associated with a majority of cessation-related measures among high school smokers. Strength of sales to minors’ laws was also associated with adolescent non-continuation of smoking among 10th and 12th graders.ConclusionsFindings suggest that increasing cigarette price can encourage cessation-related behaviors among high school smokers. Evidence-based policy, such as tax increases on tobacco products, should be included as an important part of comprehensive tobacco control policy, which can have a positive effect on decreasing smoking prevalence and increasing smoking cessation among youth.     

The impact of tobacco use and secondhand smoke on hospitality workers

Tobacco use has a substantial impact on hospitality industry employees because of the disproportionate prevalence of smoking among these workers and because of the high levels of secondhand smoke to which they are exposed. The severity of this impact is evidenced by the high mortality rates observed among hospitality industry workers from diseases related to tobacco smoke exposure. Several states and localities have begun to enact laws to protect these workers from secondhand smoke exposure. Such policies seem to be effective in reducing exposure and improving health among these workers without causing any adverse impact on business. Occupational clinicians can play a significant role in protecting the health of hospitality workers by supporting laws to create smoke-free workplaces, including bars and restaurants, and promoting smoking cessation in these worksites.     

Smoke free environments in Latin America: on the road to real change?

Latin American countries are experiencing an increasing burden of tobacco-related diseases. Smoke free policies are cost-effective interventions to control both exposure of non-smokers to the toxic chemicals in secondhand tobacco smoke and to reduce the prevalence of smoking and its consequent morbidity and mortality. The World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control has created momentum in Latin America to implement meaningful tobacco control policies. As of August 2007, Uruguay, two provinces and three cities in Argentina, and one state in Venezuela, had passed, regulated, and enforced 100% smoke free legislation. The tobacco industry, working through local subsidiaries, has been the strongest obstacle in achieving this goal and has prevented progress elsewhere in the region. During the 1990s, transnational tobacco companies Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco developed voluntary initiatives (“Courtesy of Choice” and “Environmental Tobacco Smoke Consultancy” programs) to prevent effective smoke free policies. Another important barrier in the region has often been a weak and fragmented local civil society. Opportunities in the region that should be taken into account are a high public support for smoke free environments and increasing capacity building available from international collaboration on tobacco control. Policymakers and tobacco control advocates should prioritize the implementation of smoke free policies in Latin America to protect non-smokers, reduce smoking prevalence with its economic and disease burden in the region.     

Smoking attributable hospital treatment, treatment costs and smoking attributable mortality in the Czech Republic in 2002

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this work is to quantify the number of hospitalizations caused by smoking, estimate the costs of hospital treatment and to estimate contribution of smoking to mortality in the Czech Republic (CR) in 2002. METHODS: The estimate of the proportion by which smoking contributed to hospitalizations and to mortality in the CR was computed using the method of smoking-attributable fractions (SAF). The SAF was computed from relative risks established in the American study Cancer Prevention Study II and from estimates of the prevalence of smoking in the CR from a nationwide study conducted in 2002. RESULTS: In 2002, based on data provided by the General Health Insurance Company, there were 145,336 hospitalizations, and the total cost of hospital treatment was estimated as 4.727,612 (in thousands) CZK. The total number of deaths caused by smoking was 20,550 (95% CI: 18,851-22,262), 14,525 in men and 6,025 in women. Deaths caused by smoking represented 19% of the total nationwide mortality for 2002. Earlier estimates were published by Peto and Lopez for 1995 (22,300 deaths caused by smoking) and 2000 (17,746 deaths). The estimate arrived by authors using the SAF method for 2002 corresponds quite well with that by Peto and Lopez for 2000. CONCLUSIONS: The high morbidity and mortality rate related to smoking is directly connected to high prevalence of smoking in the Czech Republic. An effective tobacco control policy, including restrictive measures on availability of tobacco products combined with preventive programmes and smoking cessation programmes, could contribute to the reduction of smoking and save lives and treatment costs caused by smoking.     

烟草流行监测方法进展

烟草使用是全球过早死亡和疾病的主要可预防因素。烟草流行监测在控烟工作中具有重要作用, WHO《烟草控制框架公约》和MPOWER控烟策略均将烟草监测作为控烟的重要内容之一。本文综述了国内外烟草流行监测的方法, 主要有面对面调查、电话访问调查、网络问卷调查、数据共享、模型估计、戒烟服务以及多种方法联合等, 并对监测方法进行优缺点分析。梳理不同国家和地区烟草流行监测方法, 为我国烟草流行监测提供参考。     

Prevention of smoking-related deaths in the United States

BACKGROUND: Tobacco is the leading cause of death in the United States. The majority of people who smoke begin before age 18. OBJECTIVE: Determine the number of smoking-attributable deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in adults that might be saved through interventions to reduce smoking prevalence among children and adolescents. METHODS: Calculation of the smoking-attributable mortality and years of potential life lost by age 85 among the cohort of people aged 18 in 2000. RESULTS: By age 85, there would be 127,670 smoking-attributable deaths among women and 284,502 deaths among men, for a total 412,172 smoking-attributable deaths in the United States among the cohort of 3,964,704 people aged 18 years alive in 2000. Through large-scale multimedia campaigns and a $1 increase in the price per pack of cigarettes, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 26% and would result in an annual savings of 108,466 lives and 1.6 million YPLL. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to decrease smoking prevalence among children and adolescents can have large effects on adult mortality.     

Attitudes toward anti-tobacco policy among California youth: associations with smoking status, psychosocial variables and advocacy actions

To prevent smoking and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, California has implemented anti-tobacco policies, including laws restricting youth access to tobacco, and smoking bans in workplaces, schools, restaurants and bars. Although studies have examined adults' attitudes toward anti-tobacco policies, little is known about adolescents' awareness of and support for these policies. This study examined attitudes toward anti-tobacco policies in a sample of 6887 10th grade California adolescents. Awareness of anti-tobacco policies was highest among current smokers and lowest among susceptible never-smokers. Support for anti-tobacco policies was highest among non-susceptible never-smokers and lowest among current smokers. Policy awareness and support were significantly associated with psychosocial tobacco-related variables (e.g. perceived consequences of smoking, friends' smoking, perceived access to cigarettes, prevalence estimates of smoking among peers, cigarette offers and cigarette refusal self-efficacy). Policy awareness and support were associated with the probability of performing advocacy actions against tobacco use. Although these results cannot prove a causal association, they suggest that adolescents' attitudes toward anti-tobacco policies may play a role in their decisions about smoking. Tobacco control and education programs should include information about existing anti-tobacco policies, and should educate youth about the importance and benefits of anti-tobacco policies.     

The Status and Future Challenges of Tobacco Control Policy in Korea

Tobacco use is the most important preventable risk factor for premature death. The World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the first international public health treaty, came into force in 2005. This paper reviews the present status of tobacco control policies in Korea according to the WHO FCTC recommendations. In Korea, cigarette use is high among adult males (48.2% in 2010), and cigarette prices are the lowest among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries with no tax increases since 2004. Smoke-free policies have shown incremental progress since 1995, but smoking is still permitted in many indoor public places. More than 30% of non-smoking adults and adolescents are exposed to second-hand smoke. Public education on the harmful effects of tobacco is currently insufficient and the current policies have not been adequately evaluated. There is no comprehensive ban on tobacco advertising, promotion, or sponsorship in Korea. Cigarette packages have text health warnings on only 30% of the main packaging area, and misleading terms such as "mild" and "light" are permitted. There are nationwide smoking cessation clinics and a Quitline service, but cessation services are not covered by public insurance schemes and there are no national treatment guidelines. The sale of tobacco to minors is prohibited by law, but is poorly enforced. The socioeconomic inequality of smoking prevalence has widened, although the government considers inequality reduction to be a national goal. The tobacco control policies in Korea have faltered recently and priority should be given to the development of comprehensive tobacco control policies.     

Smoking health professional student: an attitudinal challenge for health promotion?

Tobacco is a major preventable cause of premature morbidity and mortality. Health professionals are uniquely positioned to provide targeted interventions and should be empowered to provide cessation counselling that influence patient smoking. A cross-sectional national survey was administered to all third year students in four disciplines at the University of Malta. The Global Health Professional Student Survey (GHPSS) questionnaire was distributed to collect standardised demographic, smoking prevalence, behavioural, and attitudinal data. 81.9% completed the questionnaire (n = 173/211). A positive significant association between tobacco smoke exposure at home and current smoking status was identified. Non-smokers regarded anti-tobacco policies more favourably than smokers, being more likely to agree with banning of tobacco sales to adolescents (OR 3.6; 95% CI: 2.5-5.3; p ≤ 0.001); and with a smoking ban in all public places (OR 8.9; 95% CI: 6.1-13.1; p ≤ 0.001). Non-smokers favoured a role for health professionals in promoting smoking cessation (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 3.1-8.5; p ≤ 0.001). Knowledge of antidepressants as tools for smoking cessation was also associated with a perceived role for skilled health professionals in cessation counselling (OR 4.9; 95% CI: 1.8-13.3; p = 0.002). Smoking negatively influences beliefs and attitudes of students toward tobacco control. There is a need to adopt a standard undergraduate curriculum containing comprehensive tobacco prevention and cessation training to improve their effectiveness as role models.     

SimSmoke Model Evaluation of the Effect of Tobacco Control Policies in Korea: The Unknown Success Story

Objectives. We evaluated the effect of strict tobacco control policies, implemented beginning in 1995 in the Republic of Korea, on smoking prevalence and deaths.Methods. SimSmoke is a simulation model of the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. It uses standard attribution methods to estimate lives saved as a result of new policies. After validating the model against smoking prevalence, we used it to determine the Korean policies'' effect on smoking prevalence.Results. The model predicted smoking prevalence accurately between 1995 and 2006. We estimated that 70% of the 24% relative reduction in smoking rates over that period was attributable to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases and a strong media campaign, and that the policies will prolong 104 812 male lives by the year 2027.Conclusions. Our results document Korea''s success in reducing smoking prevalence and prolonging lives, which may serve as an example for other Asian nations. Further improvements may be possible with higher taxes and more comprehensive smoke-free laws, cessation policies, advertising restrictions, and health warnings.Many Asian nations have smoking prevalence rates among males of at least 50%, leading to a large share of the world''s 5 million deaths attributable to smoking each year.¹ Worldwide, annual tobacco-related mortality is expected to increase to 10 million by 2030,¹ with an increasing share of those deaths in Asia, unless effective tobacco control measures are implemented.Most Asian nations have signed the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, developed through the World Health Organization. This pact advocates high cigarette taxes, smoke-free indoor air laws, cessation treatment coverage, advertising bans, health warnings, and a well-organized media campaign. Thailand has implemented many of the suggested policies and has shown remarkable success in reducing male and female smoking rates.² Success in other Asian nations has not been documented.As recently as 1995, 67% of males smoked in the Republic of Korea.³ Taxes were increased gradually in the late 1990s, and some of the funds were allocated to tobacco control. The framework was ratified by Korea in May 2005. By the end of 2006, Korea had substantially increased the tax rate on cigarettes, implemented a strong antismoking campaign, strengthened clean air laws and health warnings, and made cessation treatments more accessible.³ No previous study evaluated the effect of these policies.When more than 1 policy is implemented, it is difficult for empirical studies to distinguish each policy''s effects.⁴ Simulation models combine information from diverse sources to examine the effects of different policies over time.^4,5 To determine these effects in Korea, we adopted the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model,^4,6–8 which simultaneously considers a broader array of public policies than do other smoking models.^9–14 The model has accurately explained trends in smoking rates for the United States as a whole and for several states,^7,15–17 as well as for other nations.²We used Korean data to develop a SimSmoke model for that country. We used the model to estimate the effect of individual and combined tobacco control policies implemented between 1995 and 2006 on male smoking prevalence and deaths.     

Adapting smoking cessation programming to the Bulgarian context

Tobacco control efforts are among Bulgaria's leading health priorities, although enforcement of policies translated from other regions is challenging due to the high national smoking prevalence, especially among health professionals and school personnel. This article reviews the sociocultural and economic background relevant to health policy change and smoking cessation initiatives. Recommendations are made for effective Bulgarian tobacco control.     

Prevalence of Tobacco Use Among Junior High and Senior High School Students in Taiwan

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is a major preventable cause of death in the world. This article describes and compares tobacco use prevalence for students attending junior high schools and senior high schools in Taiwan. METHODS: This report uses data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) completed among 4689 junior high school students and 4426 senior high school students in Taiwan in 2004‐2005. The GYTS uses a 2‐stage sampling design to produce nationally representative data for junior and senior high students in general and vocational schools. RESULTS: Higher smoking prevalence was observed among senior high (10.1% general schools and 15.9% vocational schools) than junior high (5.5%) school students. Smoking prevalence of girls in junior high (3.2%) and senior high schools (4.6% general and 11.1% vocational) was almost as high or higher than adult females’ (4.3%) smoking rates. The pattern of smoking intensity across school years and type of school shows that the percentage of smokers who were experimenters (47.1%) was higher in junior high school and the percentage of smokers who were regular/established smokers (over 50%) was higher in senior high school. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking prevalence described in this report shows that there are challenges facing the tobacco prevention and control program in Taiwan. The findings suggest that schools should increase their smoking initiation prevention efforts and make available cessation programs and counseling to help students quit smoking. If effective youth tobacco control programs are not developed and implemented in Taiwan, future morbidity and mortality attributed to tobacco will surely increase, especially among women.