终末期肝病的预后模型评分与失代偿期肝硬化预后关系研究

目的探讨终末期肝病的预后模型评分与失代偿期肝硬化预后的关系。方法回顾性分析145例失代偿期肝硬化患者的临床资料,根据终末期肝病的预后模型评分与病死率评估患者预后。结果随终末期肝病的预后模型评分增加病死率逐渐增高;死亡组终末期肝病的预后模型评分高于生存组(P<0.05)。结论终末期肝病的预后模型对指导失代偿期肝硬化患者治疗和预后判断有重要意义。     

终末期肝病模型评分对肝硬化失代偿患者近期预后分析

肝硬化是我国常见病和多发病,失代偿期患者的5年病死率为70%～86%[1]。数十年来,临床一直采用Child-Pugh分级方法判断失代偿期患者的预后及评价其肝功能储备。2001年Kamath等[2]提出了新的评价体系,即终末期肝病模型(model for end-stage liver disease,MELD)。近年许多文献对这一新体系进行了评价[3～7]。本文采用MELD评分和Child-Pugh分级,回顾性评估31例肝硬化失代偿死亡者和55例存活者,并比较2个评价体系与其预后的关系。资料与方法一、研究对象1999年12月至2006年3月在本院住院的肝硬化失代偿患者86例,其中死亡者31例,存活者55例…     

Child-Pugh分级对失代偿期肝硬化预后的评估

目的：研究Child-Pugh分级对失代偿期肝硬化预后的预测价值。方法：对34例死于失代偿期肝硬化患者进行回顾性分析,应用Child-Pugh分级对初次入院资料进行评分及分级,并计算初次入院至死亡的时间。结果：Child-Pugh分级A级生存时间56.2±24.7月、B级33.1±10.5月、C级12.6±9.6月;以上消化道出血为主要表现的患者,生存时间相对非出血者低（P〈0.05）。结论：Child-Pugh分级可做为预测失代偿期肝硬化患者的生存时间的重要的客观指标。而是否伴有上消化道出血对生存时间有较大的影响;上腹部增强CT对失代偿期肝硬化患者有无肝肾分流等侧支循环的评估有助于出血风险的判断。     

终末期肝病模型评分对105例肝硬化失代偿期患者预后分析

长期以来,Child—Pugh分级是临床上判断肝病病情最常用的方法,终末期肝病模型（model of end stage liver dis—ease,MELD）是近年来新创立的判断中晚期肝病病情的方法,目前MELD评测系统在国内应用尚不广泛,本研究参考国内外资料应用MELD评分并与Child—Pugh分级对比回顾性分析了105例失代偿期肝硬化患者的生存状况,旨在了解其与肝硬化患者近期（3个月）预后的关系,现报告如下。     

终末期肝病模型在肝硬化失代偿期患者中的评价作用

目的：分析终末期肝病模型（MELD）评分系统在肝硬化失代偿期对短期和中期预后判断的作用。方法：92例各种病因的肝硬化失代偿患者，分别计算每例患者的MELD评分，同时计算其Child-Turcotte-Pugh（CTP）评分，并随访3个月及1年的生存率。并以受试者工作曲线（ROC）下面积衡量MELD、CTP评分预测患者预后的能力。结果：92例患者随访3个月内有11例患者死亡，死亡组MELD（22.9&#177;5.40）、CTP（11.4&#177;2.67）与生存组比较差异均有统计学意义（P〈0.05）；随访1年内有21例患者死亡，死亡组MELD（19.6&#177;8.69）、CTP（10.9&#177;2.84）与生存组比较差异有统计学意义（P〈0.01）；MELD、CTP评分对3个月预后评估的ROC曲线面积分别为0.782，0.721；对1年预后评估的ROC曲线下面积为0.747，0.705。结论：MELD评分能很好地预测肝硬化患者的短期和中期预后，其评估价值至少不亚于CTP评分，但其客观性要强于CTP评分，值得临床推广应用。     

终末期肝病模型和急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分系统Ⅱ对慢加急性肝衰竭的预测价值

目的研究应用终末期肝病模型（model fo rend-stage liver disease,MELD）评分和急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分系统Ⅱ（acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ,APACHEⅡ）评分对慢加急性肝衰竭（acute-on-chronic liver failure,ACLF）的预测价值。方法对2003年6月至2006年6月天津医科大学消化科住院诊断ACLF患者104例进行回顾性总结分析。结果死亡组的APACHEII评分和MELD评分均高于生存组（P〈0．05）。多因素logistic回归分析显示功能不全器官数、APACHEⅡ／评分、严重脓毒症或脓毒性休克、MELD评分与ACLF死亡密切相关。用受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic,ROC）曲线分析显示,MELD和APACHEⅡ评分系统曲线下面积（area under curve,AUC）分别为0．947和0．876。结论高MELD分值和APACHEⅡ评分与ACLF患者病死率独立相关,对ACLF患者的预后有独立预测能力。MELD评分系统在预测我国慢加急性肝衰竭患者预后方面有更好的临床价值。     

饮食护理对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后的影响

目的了解饮食护理对肝硬化失代偿期的影响和效果。方法将100例住院十天左右肝硬化失代偿期患者随机分为治疗组和对照组各50例,均行常规护理,另对治疗组实行饮食护理,然后对两组患者的预后进行评估。结果治疗组肝硬化失代偿期患者的预后明显好于对照组。结论饮食干预对肝硬化失代偿期的治疗有重要意义,而且对患者的预后也有重要作用。     

终末期肝病血清钠评分联合血清内毒素和胆固醇对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后的判断价值

目的探讨终末期肝病血清钠（MELD-Na）评分联合血清内毒素、胆固醇对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后的判断价值。方法回顾性分析失代偿期肝硬化住院患者156例的临床资料,分别根据随访6、12、24个月的生存、死亡情况分组,通过测定相关指标计算存活组与死亡组患者MELD-Na分值,测定血清内毒素、胆固醇浓度,分析MELD-Na分值联合血清内毒素、胆固醇浓度与肝硬化失代偿期患者预后相关性。结果随访6个月,19例死亡;随访12个月,59例死亡;随访24个月,77例死亡。6、12、24个月存活组与死亡组患者MELD—Na分值、血清内毒素、血清胆固醇浓度之间的差异均有统计学意义（t值分别为-9．68、-9．22、11．40,-4．65、-19．60、16．20,-20．0、-18．7、17．3,P均〈0．05）。MELD．Na分值预测失代偿期肝硬化患者死亡的最佳临界值为32分,MELD．Na分值增高患者死亡风险也增加;血清内毒素预测患者死亡的最佳临界值为≥12ng／L,血清胆固醇预测患者死亡的最佳临界值为≤1．70mmol／L,血清胆固醇降低、内毒素浓度增高可增加患者死亡风险。结论MELD．Na评分联合血清内毒素、胆固醇浓度对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后有较高的判断价值。     

Aetiology of cirrhosis of the liver has an impact on survival predicted by the Model of End-stage Liver Disease score

Background Originally, aetiology of liver disease has been incorporated into the computation of the Model of End‐stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Clinical observations prompted us to hypothesize that patients with viral and alcoholic cirrhosis may differ in predicted survival rates. Until now, no large representative studies evaluated the impact of aetiology on long‐term survival predicted by the Child–Pugh and MELD scores. Materials and methods Four hundred and ninety‐three patients who underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt implantation in Vienna, Austria, and Palermo, Italy, were included in this retrospective study. The main analyses were a logistic regression model and a Cox proportional hazards regression model calculating the interaction of the aetiology with the scores. Results Both groups had similar survival rates (median 1377 and 1721 days for viral and alcoholic cirrhosis, respectively; P = 0.58), but patients with viral cirrhosis had significantly lower MELD scores (P = 0.002). In the Cox analysis, aetiology had a significant impact on the prediction of overall survival by MELD score. For 3‐month survival, MELD score was adequately predictive for both groups. For 1‐year survival, aetiology had a significant impact on survival, indicating that patients with identical scores but different aetiologies differed in survival rates. When stratifying patients into high‐ and low‐risk patients (MELD < 16 vs. MELD ≥ 16), aetiology of cirrhosis had no impact on the predictive value for low‐risk patients; high‐risk‐patients (MELD ≥ 16) with viral cirrhosis had significantly lower survival rates than patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and identical scores. With regard to Child–Pugh Score, no significant differences between the two patient groups and in the prediction of 3‐month and 1‐year survival could be observed. Conclusions Our study suggests that aetiology of cirrhosis has an impact on 1‐year survival predicted by the MELD score. This becomes more apparent in patients with advanced stage of liver disease (MELD ≥ 16). Since MELD score is used for ranking patients for liver transplantation and waiting times are regularly longer than 3 months, our observations suggest that with increasing time on the waiting list and severity of disease, patients with viral cirrhosis may have a disadvantage in the current allocation policy.     

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score predicts mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients

Purpose

Cirrhosis is a common condition that complicates the management of patients who require critical care. There is interest in identifying scoring systems that may be used to predict outcome because of the poor odds for recovery despite high-intensity care. We sought to evaluate how Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), an organ-specific scoring system, compares with other severity of illness scoring systems in predicting short- and long-term mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients.

Materials and methods

This was a retrospective cohort study involving seven intensive care units (ICUs) in a tertiary care, academic medical center. Adult patients with cirrhosis who were admitted to an ICU between 2001 and 2008 were evaluated. Severity of illness scores (MELD and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA]) were calculated on admission and at 24 and 48 hours. The primary end points were 28-day and 1-year all-cause mortality.

Results

Of 19 742 ICU hospitalizations, 848 had cirrhosis. Relevant data were available for 521 patients (73%). Of these cases, 353 patients (69.5%) were admitted to medical ICU (MICU), and the other 155 (30.5%), to surgical unit. Alcohol abuse and hepatitis C were the most common reasons for cirrhosis. Patients who died within 28 days were more likely to receive mechanical ventilation, pressors, and renal replacement therapy. Among 353 medical admissions, both MELD and SOFA were found to be significantly associated with both 28-day and 1-year mortality. Among the 155 surgical admissions, both scores were found to be not significant for 28-day mortality but were significant for 1 year.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that the prognostic ability of a variety of scoring systems strongly depends on the patient population. In the MICU population, each model (MELD + SOFA, MELD, and SOFA) demonstrates excellent discrimination for 28-day and 1-year mortality. However, these scoring systems did not predict 28-day mortality in the surgical ICU group but were significant for 1-year mortality. This suggests that patients admitted to a surgical ICU will behave similarly to their MICU cohort if they survive the perioperative period.     

Multivariate analysis of clinical and biological data in cirrhotic patients: application to prognosis

One hundred and thirty-one patients underwent clinical and biological investigation with the following determinations performed on the same day; presence or absence of ascites, icterus and/or encephalopathy, coagulation study, biochemical determinations including albumin, transferrin and immunoglobulins immunoassays. The principal component analysis of biological data showed two sets of highly representative and inversely correlated data; one included coagulation tests, albumin and transferrin, and the other included immunoglobulin A/transferrin ratio, immunoglobulin A and total bilirubin. Clinical and biological data were computed using discriminant analysis between dead and survivors. Six parameters were then selected (total bilirubin, encephalopathy, factor V, AST, antithrombin III and transferrin) giving a correct prognosis in 81.6% (31/38) of cases in a test sample. Neither ascites nor immunoglobulins were useful for the estimation of the prognosis.     

慢性肝衰竭患者终末期肝病模型预后判断的分析

目的探讨终末期肝病模型（MELD）在慢性肝衰竭患者预后判断的意义。方法对152例慢性肝衰竭患者的临床资料进行回顾性分析，计算入院时岫分值及药物治疗2周后MEID分值与入院时MEID分值的差值,SMELD，同时了解患者3个月病死率。结果9例患者在3个月内死亡，MELD分值在衄≤9、9〈MELD≤19、19〈MELD≤29、MELD≥30各组中，患者三个月病死率分别为8．3％、16．7％、23．6％、73．5％。各组与MELDs〉30组相比较，差异显著有统计学意义，（X^2=71．54、20．69、24．51，P值〈0．01）。MELDs〉18与MELD〈18两组患者3个月病死率分别为37．7％与15．8％，两组差异有统计学意义（X^2=6．27，P值〈0．05）。△MELD〉0组3个月病死率（52．5％）明显高于△SMELD≤0组（18．7％），具有统计学意义（X^2=19．07，P值〈0．01）。结论MELD能较为准确地预测慢性肝衰竭患者的短期预后，△SMELD也可准确地预测慢性肝衰竭患者的短期预后。     

终末期肝病模型评分/血钠比值对肝硬化食管静脉曲张和预后的预测

目的探讨终末期肝病模型评分与血钠比值(MESO指数)预测肝硬化食管静脉曲张程度及预后的价值。方法对具有完整病例资料和随访结果的失代偿期肝硬化93例患者进行终末期肝病模型评分、血钠浓度测定,计算MESO指数,分析MESO指数与食管静脉曲张程度及短期预后的关系。结果无食管静脉曲张组MESO指数为0.41±0.22,轻度组0.64±0.20,中度组0.96±0.32,重度组1.38±0.50,各组间MESO指数差异有统计学意义。MESO指数与食管静脉曲张严重程度呈显著正相关(r=0.642,P<0.01)。MESO指数≥0.8组中重度食管静脉曲张发生率85.4%,破裂出血率25%,显著高于MESO指数<0.8组,预测中重度食管静脉曲张的敏感度85.4%,特异度84.5%。MESO指数>1.6时病死率明显增加。结论MESO指数越高,食管静脉曲张程度越重,破裂出血及死亡风险越大,MESO指数可预测肝硬化食管静脉曲张程度及预后。     

低糖血症与急性失代偿性肝硬化患者 病死率增加的相关性研究

目的 探讨低糖血症与急性失代偿性肝硬化患者病死率增加的相关性.方法 回顾性分析2011年12月至2014年12月就诊于河北医科大学第二医院肝胆外科的120例失代偿性肝硬化患者的临床资料,将患者分为低糖血症组(血糖<5.0 mmol/L,21例)、正常血糖组(血糖5.1~10.0 mmol/L,84例)、高糖血症组(血糖>10.1 mmol/L,15例),比较3组患者肝癌、代偿失调症状、已知糖代谢紊乱发生率及住院情况、肝功能指标和血气分析指标的差异,对患者的年龄、肝癌、腹水、肝肾综合征、脑病、出血、黄疸、糖代谢紊乱等资料进行单因素分析,将有统计学差异的危险因素进行多因素logistic回归分析,筛选出患者病死率增加的危险因素.结果 低糖血症组患者肝肾综合征发生率〔42.9%(9/21)比22.6%(19/84)、33.3%(5/15)〕、黄疸发生率〔38.1%(8/21)比20.2%(17/84)、13.3%(2/15)〕、重症加强治疗病房(ICU)入住率〔14.3%(3/21)比10.7%(9/84)、13.3%(2/15)〕、住院病死率〔23.8%(5/21)比10.7%(9/84)、20.0%(3/15)〕均显著高于正常血糖组和高糖血症组(P<0.05或P<0.01);低糖血症组患者天冬氨酸转氨酶〔AST(U/L):628.412±78.625比170.167±87.035、156.716±98.047〕、总胆红素〔TBil(μmol/L):154.122±34.201比86.712±48.905、74.313±39.883〕、血肌酐〔SCr (μmol/L):160.243±56.341比107.211±59.692、121.342±84.059〕及国际标准化比值(INR:1.951±0.987比1.439±0.919、1.423±0.653)水平均显著高于正常血糖组和高血糖组,3组比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05或P<0.01);碳酸氢根〔HCO3-(mmol/L):18.154±10.937比23.135±11.119、19.081±12.022〕和剩余碱〔BE (mmol/L):-7.578±2.042比-1.648±0.887、-5.402±2.005〕均低于正常血糖组和高糖血症组,3组比较差异有统计学意义(均P<0.01);3组pH值水平比较差异亦有统计学意义(7.352±2.878比7.461±2.036、7.219±2.017, P<0.01),3组丙氨酸转氨酶(ALT)、血氨、动脉血氧分压(PaO2)、动脉血二氧化碳分压(PaCO2)、乳酸(Lac)比较差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05).单因素分析显示:高龄、肝癌、肝肾综合征、出血、黄疸、糖代谢紊乱低糖血症是急性失代偿性肝硬化患者的死亡危险因素(P<0.05或P<0.01);多因素logistic回归分析显示:高龄〔优势比(OR)值=2.101,95%可信区间(95%CI)=1.297~3.403,P=0.000〕、肝肾综合征(OR值=3.032,95%CI=1.462~6.286,P=0.000)、低糖血症(OR值=3.267,95%CI=2.135~4.999,P=0.031)是导致患者死亡的危险因素.结论 低糖血症与急性失代偿性肝硬化患者病死率增加有一定的相关性.     

慢性重型乙型肝炎的终末期肝病模型短期预后分析

目的 评估终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分系统对慢性重型乙型肝炎患者短期(3个月)预后的预测能力及临床应用价值,并求出作为判断患者3个月内生存与否的MELD最佳临界值.方法 将139例慢性重型乙型肝炎患者临床资料按有无肝硬化进行分组,根据MELD评分公式对每位患者进行评分,观察3个月内的病死率,并绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC).结果 ①所观察患者的MELD评分均在20分以上,其中慢性重型肝炎组(72例)的MELD评分为(31.34±7.00)分,肝硬化重型肝炎组(67例)的MELD评分为(31.97±6.82)分,两组MELD评分比较差异无显著性(P＞0.05).②139例慢性重型乙型肝炎患者3个月内的总病死率为58.3%(81/139例).MELD评分20～30、30～40和≥40分患者的病死率分别为35.6%(26/73例)、76.6%(36/47例)和100.0%(19/19例),分值越高病死率越高,但MELD评分同一分值段的慢性重型肝炎组与肝硬化重型肝炎组间病死率比较差异均无显著性(P均＞0.05).应用该模型预测患者3个月内死亡与否的MELD最佳临界值为31,ROC下面积为0.809,敏感性为64.2%,特异性为91.4%.结论 患者发病时有无肝硬化的基础可能对慢性重型乙型肝炎患者的短期预后影响不大;MELD评分能够作为反映慢性重型乙型肝炎患者病情严重程度的指标,MELD能够较准确地预测我国慢性重型乙型肝炎患者短期临床预后.     

肝硬化病人自我护理能力与健康行为的相关性分析

[目的]探讨肝硬化病人的自我护理能力与健康行为情况及其相互关系,用以指导临床护理实践。[方法]应用自我护理能力测定量表(ESCA)、健康行为量表(HPL)对80例肝硬化病人进行调查和评定。[结果]肝硬化病人自我护理能力和健康行为自评得分为102.75分±19.74分和124.25分±21.86分,均处于中等水平,自我护理能力与健康行为呈正相关(r=0.821,P<0.001)。[结论]在设计和实施护理干预措施时应重视肝硬化病人的压力调解、人际关系、躯体活动和心理健康,改善病人的健康行为,加强自我护理技能的培养,以提高自我护理能力。