Trends in hospitalization for heart failure in Scotland 1980-1990

Heart failure is a growing public health problem in industrializedcountries with ageing populations. Scotland has a relativelystable population of approximately 5 million and a well describedsystem for recording details of hospitalizations (Scottish HospitalIn-Patients Statistics-SHIPS). We have examined SHIPS data forhospitalizations for heart failure in Scotland 1980–1990.Discharges for heart failure as the primary diagnosis increasedby almost 60%, from 1.30 to 2.12/1000 population in this period(as either primary or secondary diagnosis the rate increasedfrom 2.51 to 4.24/1000). Seventy-eight percent of dischargeswere in persons aged 65 years and 48% of discharges were male.Heart failure (primary diagnosis) accounted for almost 4% ofall general (internal) medicine discharges. In-patient casefatality was 18% in 1990. Mean duration of in-patient stay onInternal Medicine wards was approximately 11 days. The number of hospitalizations for heart failure is now almostidentical to those for myocardial infarction. These trends mirrorthose recently reported from the United States. Heart failureis an increasingly common and costly cause of hospitalizationin Scotland. Approaches which can reduce this burden on thehospital service require urgent attention.     

Geographic variation in hospitalizations and mortality related to congestive heart failure in Spain, 1980-1993

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Geographical differences in hospitalizations and mortality for heart failure serve to estimate the potential for reducing the associated hospital and demographic burden on the population. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to analyze the geographic variation in heart failure hospitalizations and mortality in Spain during the period of 1980-1993, and to examine their potential determinants. METHODS: Data on the primary diagnosis of heart failure were taken from the National Hospital Morbidity Survey and National Vital Statistics. Information on determinants of heart failure were obtained from large-scale nationally representative surveys conducted by the National Statistics Office. RESULTS: The period of 1980-1993 witnessed a decrease in geographical differences in heart failure hospitalizations and mortality. Theoretically, however, heart failure hospitalizations and mortality among persons aged > or = 45 years could still be further reduced by 60% and 30% respectively. In the period of 1989-1993 heart failure hospitalizations were correlated (p < 0.05) with ischaemic heart disease hospitalizations and the number of beds/1,000 inhabitants. Heart failure mortality showed a statistically significant correlation (p < 0.05) with ischaemic heart disease mortality, illiteracy and unemployed status. CONCLUSIONS: There is a great potential for a reduction in the hospital and demographic burden of heart failure in Spain. Control of ischaemic heart disease and a reduction in the geographical differences in socio-economic status would probably contribute to lessening the healthcare burden of heart failure in Spain.     

Weight and mortality following heart failure hospitalization among diabetic patients

Background

Type 2 diabetes is an important risk factor for heart failure and is common among patients with heart failure. The impact of weight on prognosis after hospitalization for acute heart failure among patients with diabetes is unknown. The objective of this study was to examine all-cause mortality in relation to weight status among patients with type 2 diabetes hospitalized for decompensated heart failure.

Methods

The Worcester Heart Failure Study included adults admitted with acute heart failure to all metropolitan Worcester medical centers in 1995 and 2000. The weight status of 1644 patients with diabetes (history of type 2 diabetes in medical record or admission serum glucose ≥200 mg/dL) was categorized using body mass index calculated from height and weight at admission. Survival status was ascertained at 1 and 5 years after hospital admission.

Results

Sixty-five percent of patients were overweight or obese and 3% were underweight. Underweight patients had 50% higher odds of all-cause mortality within 5 years of hospitalization for acute heart failure than normal weight patients. Class I and II obesity were associated with 20% and 40% lower odds of dying. Overweight and Class III obesity were not associated with mortality. Results were similar for mortality within 1 year of hospitalization for acute heart failure.

Conclusions

The mechanisms underlying the association between weight status and mortality are not fully understood. Additional research is needed to explore the effects of body composition, recent weight changes, and prognosis after hospitalization for heart failure among patients with diabetes.     

Prognostic value of brain natriuretic peptide vs history of heart failure hospitalization in a large real-world population

BackgroundIn heart failure (HF) patients, both natriuretic peptides (NP) and previous HF hospitalization (pHFH) have been used to predict prognosis.HypothesisIn a large real‐world population, both NP levels and pHFH have independent and interdependent predictive value for clinical outcomes of HFH and all‐cause mortality.MethodsLinked electronic health records and insurance claims data from Decision Resource Group were used to identify HF patients that had a BNP or NT‐proBNP result between January 2012 and December 2016. NT‐proBNP was converted into BNP equivalents by dividing by 4. Index event was defined as most recent NP on or after 1 January 2012. Patients with incomplete records or age < 18 years were excluded. During one‐year follow up, HFH and mortality rates stratified by index BNP levels and pHFH are reported.ResultsOf 64 355 patients (74 ± 12 years old, 49% female) with available values, median BNP was 259 [IQR 101‐642] pg/ml. The risk of both HFH and mortality was higher with increasing BNP levels. At each level of BNP, mortality was only slightly higher in patients with pHFH vs those without pHFH (RR 1.2 [95%CI 1.2,1.3], P < .001); however, at each BNP, HFH was markedly increased in patients with pHFH vs those without pHFH (RR 2.0 [95%CI 1.9,2.1], P < .001).ConclusionIn this large real‐world heart failure population, higher BNP levels were associated with increased risk for both HFH and mortality. At any given level of BNP, pHFH added greater prognostic value for prediction of future HFH than for mortality.     

Importance of heart failure as a cause of death. Changing contribution to overall mortality and coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland 1979-1992

Aims As heart failure is a syndrome arising from another condition,such as coronary heart disease, it is rarely officially codedas the underlying cause of death regardless of the cause recordedby the physician at the time of certification. We sought toassess the true contribution of heart failure to overall mortalityand coronary heart disease mortality and to examine how thiscontribution has changed over time. Methods and Results We carried out a retrospective analysis of all death certificatesin Scotland between 1979 and 1992 for which heart failure wascoded as the under-lying or a contributory cause of death. Froma total of 833622 deaths in Scotland between 1979 and 1992,heart failure was coded as the underlying cause in only 1·5%(13695), but as a contributory cause in a further 14·3%(126073). In 1979, 28·5% of male and 40·4% offemale deaths attributed to coronary heart disease (coded asthe underlying cause of death) also had a coding for heart failure.In 1992 these percentages had risen significantly to 34·1%and 44·8%, respectively (bothP<0·001). Mortalityrates for heart failure as the underlying or contributory causeof death, standardized by age and sex, fell significantly overthe period studied in all ages and in both sexes: by 31% inmen and 41% in women <65 years and 15·8% in men and5·1% in women 65 years, respectively (P<0·01for all changes). Conclusions Death from heart failure is substantially underestimated byofficial statistics. Furthermore, one third or more of deathscurrently attributed to coronary heart disease may be relatedto heart failure and this proportion appears to be increasing.While the absolute numbers of deaths caused by heart failureremains constant, this study is the first to show that standardizedmortality rates are declining.     

Effect of intravenous iron replacement on recurrent heart failure hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality in patients with heart failure and iron deficiency: A Bayesian meta-analysis

Aims

Iron deficiency is common in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and is associated with a poor prognosis. Whether intravenous iron replacement improves recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality of these patients is uncertain although several trials were conducted. Moreover, none of the trials were powered to assess the effect of intravenous iron in clinically important subgroups. Therefore, we conducted a Bayesian analysis to derive precise estimates of the effect of intravenous iron replacement on recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality in iron-deficient HFrEF patients using consistent subgroup definitions across trials.

Methods and results

Individual participant data were used from the FAIR-HF (n = 459), CONFIRM-HF (n = 304) and AFFIRM-AHF (n = 1108) trials. These data were re-analysed following as closely as possible the approach taken in the analyses of IRONMAN (n = 1137), for which study level data were used. Definitions of outcomes and subgroups from the FAIR-HF, CONFIRM-HF and AFFIRM-AHF were matched with those used in IRONMAN. The primary endpoint was recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality. The analysis of recurrent events was based on rate ratios (RR) derived from the Lin-Wei-Yang-Ying model, and the data were pooled using Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis. Compared with placebo, intravenous iron significantly reduced the rates of recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.73, 95% credible interval [CI] 0.48–0.99; between-trial heterogeneity tau = 0.16). The pooled treatment effects did not provide evidence for any differential effects for subgroups based on sex (ratio of rate ratios [RRR] 1.49 [95% CI 0.95–2.37], age <69.4 vs. ≥69.4 years) (RRR 0.68 [0.40–1.15]), ischaemic versus non-ischaemic aetiology of HF (RRR 0.73 [0.42–1.33]), transferrin saturation <20% vs. ≥20% (RRR 0.75 [0.40–1.34]), estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤60 versus >60 ml/min/1.73 m² (RRR 0.97 [0.56–1.68]), haemoglobin <11.8 versus ≥11.8 (RRR 0.95 [0.53–1.60]), ferritin <35 versus ≥35 μg/L (RRR 1.26 [0.72–2.48]) and New York Heart Association class II versus III/IV (RRR 0.91 [0.54–1.56]).

Conclusions

Treatment of iron-deficient HFrEF patients with intravenous iron – namely with ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose – results in significant reduction in recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality. Results were nominally consistent across the subgroups studied, but for several of these subgroups uncertainty remains present.     

Trends in heart failure mortality in England and Wales since 1950

BACKGROUND: This study aims to analyse trends in heart failure mortality for England and Wales from 1950 to 2003. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted using death certificate and population data from the Office for National Statistics. RESULTS: Unadjusted heart failure deaths rose by a factor of more than four between 1950 and 1974 and then fell by a quarter by 2003. When standardised for changes in the age, sex and size of the population, there was a tripling in mortality rate from 1950 to the mid-1970s and since then, a sustained decline in mortality rate of 50% by 2003. The unadjusted female heart failure death rate has been between 1.5-2 times that of males since the early 1970s, but this is much less marked when the differences in the age distribution and sizes of the male and female populations are taken into account. Heart failure mortality trends are similar to those of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the peak is about 10 years earlier, and the male/female ratios are reversed. There is a continuing rise in deaths from both heart failure and CHD in the very elderly (>85 years). CONCLUSION: Unlike hospital trends, deaths from heart failure in the community in England and Wales show a decline since the early 1970s, in spite of an ageing population. This may reflect genuine changes in heart failure incidence, or parallel changes in CHD.     

Risk stratification after hospitalization for decompensated heart failure

BACKGROUND: Decompensated heart failure (HF) is among the most common indications for hospitalization in the United States, but little is known about features on admission that predict adverse events. We used data from the Outcomes of a Prospective Trial of Intravenous Milrinone for Exacerbations of Chronic Heart Failure (OPTIME-CHF) study to develop a model that would predict outcomes in patients with decompensated HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: OPTIME-CHF randomized 949 patients hospitalized with decompensated HF for 48 to 72 hours of infusion of either milrinone or placebo. We used multivariable modeling to evaluate variables on admission that would be predictive of 60-day mortality or the composite of death or rehospitalization at 60 days. Variables at presentation that predicted death at 60 days were increased age, lower systolic blood pressure, New York Heart Association class IV symptoms, elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and decreased sodium. Predictors of the composite of death or rehospitalization within 60 days were the number of HF hospitalizations in the preceding 12 months, elevated BUN, lower systolic blood pressure, decreased hemoglobin, and a history of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The discriminatory power of the model was substantial for the mortality model (c-index .77) but less for the composite endpoint (c-index .69). CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification of patients with decompensated HF may be accomplished using easily assessed clinical variables. Further research into the validity of this model in independent samples will potentially aid in the development of risk stratification strategies.     

心力衰竭患者住院病死率15年趋势分析

目的调查15年间心力衰竭住院患者在院30 d病死率的变化趋势和住院日情况。方法选择1993年1月1日至2007年12月31日15年间的心力衰竭住院患者7319例(男4543例,女2776例),统计心力衰竭住院患者在院病死率及住院日,采用Kaplan-Meier生存曲线统计不同时段的生存时间。结果 15年间心力衰竭住院患者年龄呈增长趋势(P=0.000),平均住院日呈下降趋势(P=0.000)。在院30 d病死率从1993—1997年的7.0%,到1998—2002年的4.5%,再到2003—2007年的5.1%(P=0.002)。不同性别在不同时段的在院病死率差异无统计学意义。以心肌梗死、瓣膜性心脏病为病因的心力衰竭患者在院病死率下降极为显著(P<0.01)。Kaplan-Meier生存曲线显示,时段与病死率相关(2003—2007年比1993—1997年,HR 0.59,95%CI 0.46～0.76,P<0.001)。结论调整年龄后心力衰竭住院患者在研究时段30 d在院病死率呈显著下降趋势,平均住院日呈下降趋势,住院患者年龄呈显著增高趋势。     

心率振荡对慢性心力衰竭患者住院病死率的影响

目的:探讨心率振荡(HRT)对慢性心力衰竭(CHF)患者住院病死率的影响。方法:选择101例CHF住院患者,根据24h动态心电图计算患者的振荡初始(TO)和振荡斜率(TS),并记录与预后相关的指标,包括:年龄、性别、吸烟、高血压、糖尿病、血脂异常、血尿酸异常、左心室射血分数(LVEF)。以住院期间预后为终点事件,分析各项指标与患者死亡的相关性。结果:HRT、糖尿病、LVEF与CHF患者的死亡显著相关(P<0.05或P<0.01)。结论:HRT是CHF患者住院病死率的良好预测指标。     

Trends in hospitalization for heart failure in Scotland, 1990-1996. An epidemic that has reached its peak?

AIMS: Studies in the 1980s and early 1990s showed striking increases in hospitalization rates for heart failure. This report describes contemporary trends in hospitalization for heart failure. METHODS: Scotland (population of 5.1 million) has a well described system for recording details of all hospitalizations. All hospital discharges (and deaths) can be linked to each patient. We examined the period 1990-1996 (158 989 hospitalizations with a principal or secondary diagnosis of heart failure). RESULTS: Compared to 1990, the number of hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of heart failure increased in men (by 16%) and women (by 12%), although the highest numbers were recorded in 1993 in women (21%) and in 1994 in men (24%). Similar trends were seen for the number of patients hospitalized overall and those having a 'first ever' hospitalization. Hospitalizations with a secondary diagnosis of heart failure increased much more strikingly (by 110% and 60% in men and women, respectively). Re-hospitalization became more common, increasing by 53% and representing 23% of all hospitalizations in 1996. Median length of stay fell (from 9 to 8 days in men and 13 to 10 days in women with a principal diagnosis of heart failure), resulting in 100 877 fewer inpatient days. Heart failure (principal diagnosis) still, however, accounted for 4.2% of all inpatient medicine/geriatric bed-days in 1996. Although inpatient case fatality fell slightly, the total number of deaths due to heart failure (principal diagnosis) increased slightly. CONCLUSIONS: Heart failure continues to be a common cause of hospitalization. The previously reported 'epidemic' of increasing rates of hospitalization for heart failure in Scotland and elsewhere between 1980 and 1990, however, seems to have peaked (in about 1993/4).     

Substantial between-hospital variation in outcome following first emergency admission for heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Following hospitalization with a range of cardiovascular disorders, substantial variation has been noted in clinical outcome, both between and within countries. OBJECTIVES: To examine the variation, between hospitals, in the clinical outcomes of death and readmission following hospitalization with heart failure in Scotland. Setting All 29 acute hospitals in Scotland with more than 200 beds. PATIENTS: All 31 452 patients discharged from these hospitals between January 1990 and December 1995 with a first-ever, primary, diagnosis at discharge/death of heart failure. ANALYSIS: An analysis of the Scottish database of discharge summaries linking index admissions with subsequent admissions and deaths. Death rates and readmission rates were adjusted for baseline age, co-morbidity and socio-economic status and were calculated at different time periods (inpatient, 30 days, 1 year). Rates were calculated separately for large teaching hospitals (n=6, category A), large general hospitals with specialist units (n=8, category B) and medium sized general hospitals with limited specialist units (n=15 category C). RESULTS: A total of 31 452 patients were discharged between 1990-1995 - 10 219 (33%), 9735 (31%) and 11 498 (37%) to category A, B and C hospitals, respectively. The national, average, inpatient case fatality rate was 15.3%, ranging, in individual hospitals, from the lowest rate of 8.5% to the highest rate of 23.4%. The average 1 year case fatality rate was 42.4%, ranging between 35.3% and 50.8%. A similar two- to threefold variation was found in hospital readmission rates - thus the average 30 day readmission rate was 5.3% (lowest 3.3%, highest 7.3%). This variation, in both case-fatality and readmission rates, was apparent within all three groups of hospitals and persisted after adjustment for the baseline factors outlined above. CONCLUSIONS: A patient admitted to one Scottish hospital with heart failure may be two to three times more likely to die or be readmitted, both in the short and longer term, compared to a patient admitted to another hospital. Although we may not have accounted for some sources of variation, it is both surprising and disturbing that large, statistically significant, differences in adjusted death and readmission rates can apparently exist for such an important condition in a relatively small country with generally homogenous health care provision. Further, detailed investigation of this apparent variation is required.