The Use of Simulation Models for the Surveillance, Justification and Understanding of Tobacco Control Policies

Debates over national tobacco legislation and the use of state settlement funds demonstrate a need for information on the effects of tobacco control policies. Computer simulation models that are based on empirical evidence and that account for the variety of influences on tobacco use can be useful tools for informing policy makers. They can identify the effects of different policies, convey the importance of policy approaches to tobacco control, and help policy planners and researchers to better understand policies. This paper examines the role of simulation models in public policy, and discusses several recent models and limitations of those models.     

Political economy of tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries: lessons from Thailand and Zimbabwe. Global Analysis Project Team

Crucial to the success of the proposed Framework Convention on Tobacco Control will be an understanding of the political and economic context for tobacco control policies, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Policy studies in Thailand and Zimbabwe employed the analytical perspective of political economy and a research strategy that used political mapping, a technique for characterizing and evaluating the political environment surrounding a policy issue, and stakeholder analysis, which seeks to identify key actors and to determine their capacity to shape policy outcomes. These policy studies clearly revealed how tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries is also being shaped by developments in the global and regional political economy. Hence efforts to strengthen national control policies need to be set within the context of globalization and the international context. Besides the transnational tobacco companies, international tobacco groups and foreign governments, international agencies and nongovernmental organizations are also playing influential roles. It cannot be assumed, therefore, that the tobacco control strategies being implemented in industrialized countries will be just as effective and appropriate when implemented in developing countries. There is an urgent need to expand the number of such tobacco policy studies, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Comprehensive guidelines for tobacco policy analysis and research are required to support this process, as is a broader international strategy to coordinate further tobacco policy research studies at country, regional and global levels.     

Promoting the effective translation of the framework convention on tobacco control: a case study of challenges and opportunities for strategic communications in Mexico

The World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO-FCTC) promotes the implementation of best-practices tobacco control policies at a global scale. This article describes features of the sociocultural and political-economic context of Mexico that pose challenges and opportunities to the effective translation of WHO-FCTC policies there. It also considers how strategic communication efforts may advance these policies by framing their arguments in ways that resonate with prevalent values, understandings, and concerns. A focus on a smoke-free policy illustrates barriers to policy compliance, including how similar issues have been overcome among Latino populations in California. Overall, this article aims to lay the foundation for comparative research from policy uptake to impact so that the scientific evidence base on tobacco control policies includes examination of how context moderates this process.     

Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: While Italy has implemented some tobacco control policies over the last few decades, which resulted in a decreased smoking prevalence, there is still considerable scope to strengthen tobacco control policies consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) policy guidelines. The present study aims to evaluate the effect of past and project the effect of future tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality in Italy. METHODS: To assess, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies, we used the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy. The model uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Italy. RESULTS: Significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tobacco price increases, high intensity media campaigns, comprehensive cessation treatment program, strong health warnings, stricter smoke-free air regulations and advertising bans, and youth access laws. With a comprehensive approach, the smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 12 % soon after the policies are in place, increasing to a 30 % reduction in the next twenty years and a 34 % reduction by 30 years in 2040. Without effective tobacco control policies, a total of almost 300 thousand lives will be prematurely lost due to smoking by the year 2040. CONCLUSION: Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model helps identify information gaps in surveillance and evaluation schemes that will promote the effectiveness of future tobacco control policy in Italy.     

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model.

OBJECTIVES: To compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001. METHODS: A simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified using data for Argentina on population, fertility and mortality, smoking prevalence, and tobacco control policies in effect between 2001 and 2004. We used the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation model (ATPSM) to consider the effect on smoking prevalence of changes in taxes and prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs, and youth access policies on smoking initiation and cessation rates. Smoking prevalence and relative risks of smoking were used to estimate smoking-attributable mortality. The ATPSM was used to project smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths during the period 2001-2034. RESULTS: The largest reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality were predicted for a comprehensive tobacco control policy package, but relative reductions of as much as 30% were also predicted for large tax increases. Adding a media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans, and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates by up to 45% by the year 2034, and would save almost 16 000 lives per year. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control policies can substantially reduce smoking rates, which can save many lives. Without such policies, deaths from smoking, and associated medical costs, will increase. The ATPSM is expected to provide guidance in filling the most important information gaps pertinent to both modeling and policy-making in Argentina, e.g., the lack of data on initiation and cessation rates, and the need for studies on the impact of policies. Similar models might be developed for other Latin American countries.     

The effects of tobacco control policies on smoking rates: a tobacco control scorecard.

This article reviews studies of the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking rates with the aim of providing guidance on the importance of different policies. Based on past studies, we estimate the magnitude of effects of major tobacco control policies, how their effects depend on the manner in which the policies are implemented, the relationship between the different policies, and the barriers to implementation. The most successful campaigns have implemented a combination of tobacco control policies. Of those policies, substantial evidence indicates that higher taxes and clean air laws can have a large impact on smoking rates. Evidence also indicates that media campaigns when implemented with other policies are important. Research on greater access to treatment and telephone support hotlines indicates a strong potential to increase quit rates and may be important in affecting heavier smokers. Direct evidence on the effects of advertising bans and health warnings is mixed, but these policies appear to be important in some of the countries that have had success in reducing smoking rates. School education programs and limits on retail sales are not likely to have much impact if implemented alone, but may be more important when combined with other policies.     

What are the effects of tobacco policies on vulnerable populations? A better practices review

BACKGROUND: While comprehensive tobacco policies have reduced the prevalence of smoking in Canada, some groups remain vulnerable to tobacco use and display high rates of smoking. This article reviews three types of tobacco policies--tax and price, smoking location restrictions and sales restrictions--and examines the consequences for Aboriginal people, youth and low-income people. METHODS: A better practices review model was used to assess the strength of studies published between 1990 and 2004 that examined the effects of these tobacco policies on the three vulnerable populations of interest. A total of 72 studies were assessed and 42 judged medium or high strength. A gender-based and diversity analysis was applied to assess the differential impacts on females and males and/or diverse characteristics within these populations. Intended and unintended consequences were examined. FINDINGS: Few studies assessed the potential or differential effects of tobacco policies on the three selected populations. In these, it was difficult to disentangle the effects of each policy in a comprehensive tobacco control environment, and there is need for improved indicators and greater attention to sex and gender analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Research is required to measure the intended and unintended impacts of tobacco policies on populations vulnerable to tobacco use. There are problems in assessing these studies that could be resolved with more precise indicator development. An equity-based framework for assessing the effects of tobacco policies is needed that is conceptually linked to health determinants and inequities. The article concludes with a set of recommendations for research, evaluation, policy and ethics arising from this review.     

Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico

We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.     

Kentucky legislators' views on tobacco policy.

CONTEXT: Kentucky leads the nation in adult and teen smoking prevalence. Even though Kentucky is one of the most tobacco-dependent states, tobacco policy is subject to change in light of possible national tobacco legislation. OBJECTIVE: To describe the degree of agreement among Kentucky legislators regarding tobacco control and tobacco farming policy, and to discover whether use of the policy Delphi method produces a shift toward consensus on tobacco policy. DESIGN: A two-round policy Delphi study was conducted using in-person interviews. SETTING: Legislators' offices in Frankfort, Kentucky. PARTICIPANTS: Volunteer sample of 116 Kentucky legislators (84% response rate). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Degree of agreement on tobacco control and tobacco farming policies. RESULTS: Lawmakers were highly supportive of policies to lessen the state's dependence on tobacco, and were favorable toward stronger tobacco control policies. There were discrepancies, however, between what policies legislators thought were desirable and what policies were realistic. Tobacco interests were identified as possible explanations for this disparity. Tobacco allotment ownership was associated with less support for tobacco control and tobacco farming policies. A shift toward consensus on tobacco policy was achieved in the second round for 45% of the interview items common to both rounds. CONCLUSIONS: Kentucky legislators were highly supportive of reducing the state's dependence on tobacco and more supportive of tobacco control policies than expected. The policy Delphi method has the potential for shifting opinions about tobacco policies among state legislators. The findings of this study identify opportunities for public health policy change in one of the most tobacco-dependent states in the United States.     

Tobacco Policies in Louisiana: Recommendations for Future Tobacco Control Investment from SimSmoke,a Policy Simulation Model

Despite the presence of tobacco control policies, Louisiana continues to experience a high smoking burden and elevated smoking-attributable deaths. The SimSmoke model provides projections of these health outcomes in the face of existing and expanded (simulated) tobacco control polices. The SimSmoke model utilizes population data, smoking rates, and various tobacco control policy measures from Louisiana to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The model begins in 1993 and estimates are projected through 2054. The model is validated against existing Louisiana smoking prevalence data. The most powerful individual policy measure for reducing smoking prevalence is cigarette excise tax. However, a comprehensive cessation treatment policy is predicted to save the most lives. A combination of tobacco control policies provides the greatest reduction in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The existing Louisiana excise tax ranks as one of the lowest in the country and the legislature is against further increases. Alternative policy measures aimed at lowering prevalence and attributable deaths are: cessation treatments, comprehensive smoke-free policies, and limiting youth access. These three policies have a substantial effect on smoking prevalence and attributable deaths and are likely to encounter more favor in the Louisiana legislature than increasing the state excise tax.     

The Colorado Tobacco-Free Schools and Communities Project

ABSTRACT: This article defends the appropriateness of tobacco-free school policies as an effective tool toward ensuring young people develop into healthy and intellectually strong adults, and demonstrates how such a policy can be introduced into a school district. Health education efforts to eliminate tobacco use are widely considered more effective when carried out in concert with school policies and adult role models offering the consistent message that tobacco use is unhealthy and unacceptable. Studies indicate students who attend schools with strict smoking policies are less likely to begin smoking than students who attend schools without such policies. Through research, support, and guidance, the Colorado Tobacco-Free Schools and Communities Project successfully has assisted almost half the 176 school districts in Colorado to adopt such policies.     

我国地方控烟政策:基于政策文本的内容分析

目的 挖掘我国地方性控烟政策的特征，为完善控烟政策和“健康中国”控烟行动提供参考。方法 统计拥有地方立法权的53个城市的控烟政策，并对2005年后立法或修法的24个地方控烟政策进行内容分析。结果 控烟政策的法律效力低；政策规划设计尚需优化；实施层经济型、信息型政策工具运用相对不足。结论 我国地方性控烟政策需提高政策的法律效力；规划层利益主体充分参与，优化控烟政策设计；实施层加强对未成年人的保护，发挥多种政策工具作用；在控烟范围上，逐步建立明确、严谨、统一的标准。     

Retailer density reduction approaches to tobacco control: A review

Tobacco retailer density is consistently associated with poor tobacco-use outcomes. The aim of this review was to synthesize the international evidence on density reduction policies. Searches in multiple databases resulted in 31 studies covering various policy approaches evaluated for their impact on retailer density. Findings indicate that bans on tobacco sales in pharmacies reduced retailer density, but perhaps not equitably. Prohibiting sale of tobacco near schools produced greater density reductions in higher-risk neighborhoods. Policies in combination were most effective. Future studies should measure the impact of these policies on tobacco use. Density-reduction policies offer a promising approach to tobacco control.     

The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model

A simulation model is developed for Vietnam to project smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality. The model examines independently and as a package the effects of five types of tobacco control policies: tax increases, clean air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, and youth access policies. Predictions suggest that the largest reductions in smoking rates will result from implementing a comprehensive tobacco control policy package. Significant inroads may be achieved through tax increases. A media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates. Tobacco control policies have the potential to make large dents in smoking rates, which in turn could lead to many lives saved. In the absence of these measures, deaths from smoking will increase. The model also helps to identify information gaps pertinent both to modeling and policy-making.     

Development of a computational modeling laboratory for examining tobacco control policies: Tobacco Town

A key focus of recent policy efforts to curb tobacco product usage has been the role of place—specifically the density of retail and advertising and the resulting spatial pattern of access and exposure for consumers. Policies can alter the environment by reducing density or shifting distribution of tobacco retail and thus limiting access and exposure. Since little empirical evidence exists for the potential impact of these policies across potentially heterogeneous places, we develop and apply an original spatial computational model to simulate place-based retail tobacco control policies. The model is well-grounded in theory and available empirical evidence. We apply the model in four representative settings to demonstrate the utility of this approach as a policy laboratory, to develop general insights on the relationship between retailer density, retail interventions, and tobacco costs incurred by consumers, and to provide a framework to guide future modeling and empirical studies. Our results suggest that the potential impact on costs of reducing tobacco retailer density are highly dependent on context. Projected impacts are also influenced by assumptions made about agent (smoker) purchasing decision-making processes. In the absence of evidence in this area, we tested and compared three alternative decision rules; these interact with environmental properties to produce different results. Agent properties, namely income and cigarettes per day, also shape purchasing patterns before and after policy interventions. We conclude that agent-based modeling in general, and Tobacco Town specifically, hold much potential as a platform for testing and comparing the impact of various retail-based tobacco policies across different communities. Initial modeling efforts uncover important gaps in both data and theory and can provide guidance for new empirical studies in tobacco control.     

Tobacco policies and vulnerable girls and women: toward a framework for gender sensitive policy development

This article assesses the effects of comprehensive tobacco control policies on diverse subpopulations of girls and women who are at increased vulnerability to tobacco use because of disadvantage. The authors report on a recent assessment of experimental literature examining tobacco taxation; smoking location restrictions in public and private spaces; and sales restrictions. A comprehensive search was undertaken to identify relevant studies and evaluation reports. Gender based and diversity analyses were performed to identify pertinent sex differences and gender influences that would affect the application and impact of the policy. Finally, the results were contextualised within the wider literature on women's tobacco use and women's health. The authors consider not only the intended policy effects, but also explicitly examine the gendered and/or unintended consequences of these policies on other aspects of girls and women's health and wellbeing. A framework for developing gender sensitive tobacco programmes and policies for low income girls and women is provided.     

Evaluating the Strength of School Tobacco Policies: The Development of a Practical Rating System

BACKGROUND: School tobacco control policies vary widely in their strength, extensiveness, and enforcement. Currently, no standardized method exists to assess the comprehensiveness of school tobacco policies. The purpose of this study was to develop a new practical rating system for school tobacco policies, assess its reliability, and present preliminary validation data.
METHODS: This study presents the systematic development of a rating system to assess the strength of school tobacco policies. Based on the empirical literature and the expertise of an advisory panel consisting of educational leaders and tobacco control advocates and practitioners, a "gold standard" school tobacco policy was developed and guided the content of the 40-point rating system. The 4 domains of the School Tobacco Policy Index were: Tobacco-free environment (14 points), Enforcement (12 points), Prevention and treatment services (6 points), and Policy organization (8 points).
RESULTS: The Index was pilot-tested using 95 Missouri public school district tobacco policies and proved to be highly reliable among coders. The evaluated policies varied greatly between school districts, with the lowest total policy score of φ and the highest score of 21. School district policy scores were significantly related to a number of county-level tobacco policy characteristics, including support for a tobacco excise tax increase.
CONCLUSIONS: The Index is a user-friendly, practical tool for tobacco control professionals and educators, providing them with the ability to easily evaluate their own school policies. Their evaluation efforts will be useful in strengthening existing policies and developing new comprehensive policies to protect the health of students, staff, administrators, and visitors.     

Analyzing Exposure, Use, and Policies Related to Tobacco Use on Campus for the Development of Comprehensive Tobacco Policies at Canadian Post-secondary Institutions

Canadians in their early twenties represent the highest prevalence of reported tobacco use among all age groups. With the majority of Canadian young adults accessing post-secondary education, post-secondary institutions can facilitate targeting of health promotion efforts to curb tobacco use among young adults. Effective targeting requires clear comprehensive campus tobacco policies. However, the development and implementation of comprehensive campus tobacco policies has been lacking among Canadian post-secondary institutions. As the first step towards the development of a comprehensive campus tobacco policy at the University of Guelph, an on-line survey of students, faculty and staff was conducted in November 2012. The objectives of this survey were two-fold: (1) Determine the current level of exposure to second-hand smoke on campus, the type and frequency of tobacco use, opinions on seven different tobacco policy options, and the level of awareness of current tobacco policies and programs and; (2) Determine if any associations between opinions on tobacco policy options and exposure to second-hand smoke and tobacco use existed. The results of this survey demonstrate that tobacco use is associated with opinions on tobacco policy options and that the level of awareness of tobacco policies and programs is relatively low and is not associated with tobacco use. This study represents one of the first studies to examine the association between tobacco use and support of policy options and awareness of tobacco policies and programs. As other post-secondary institutions develop comprehensive tobacco policies, these findings will serve as a comparison for other similar institutions.     

Applying an equity lens to tobacco-control policies and their uptake in six Western-European countries

We identified policies that may be effective in reducing smoking among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, and examined trends in their level of application between 1985 and 2000 in six western-European countries (Sweden, Finland, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain). We located studies from literature searches in major databases, and acquired policy data from international data banks and questionnaires distributed to tobacco policy organisations/researchers. Advertising bans, smoking bans in workplaces, removing barriers to smoking cessation therapies, and increasing the cost of cigarettes have the potential to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in smoking. Between 1985 and 2000, tobacco control policies in most countries have become more targeted to decrease the smoking behaviour of low-socioeconomic groups. Despite this, many national tobacco-control strategies in western-European countries still fall short of a comprehensive policy approach to addressing smoking inequalities.