Comparing mortality and time until death for medicare HMO and FFS beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE: To compare adjusted mortality rates of TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees and disenrollees with rates of beneficiaries enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service sector (FFS), and to compare the time until death for decedents in these three groups. DATA SOURCE: Data are from the 124 counties with the largest TEFRA-risk HMO enrollment using 1993-1994 Medicare Denominator files for beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS and TEFRA-risk HMO sectors. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective study that tracks the mortality rates and time until death of a random sample of 1,240,120 Medicare beneficiaries in the FFS sector and 1,526,502 enrollees in HMOs between April 1, 1993 and April 1, 1994. A total of 58,201 beneficiaries switched from an HMO to the FFS sector and were analyzed separately. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: HMO enrollees have lower relative odds of mortality than a comparable group of FFS beneficiaries. Conversely, HMO disenrollees have higher relative odds of mortality than comparable FFS beneficiaries. Among decedents in the three groups, HMO enrollees lived longer than FFS beneficiaries, who in turn lived longer than HMO disenrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees appear to be, on average, healthier than beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS sector, who appear to be in turn healthier than HMO disenrollees. These health status differences persist, even after controlling for beneficiary demographics and county-level variables that might confound the relationship between mortality and the insurance sector.     

Medicare Advantage Chronic Special Needs Plan boosted primary care, reduced hospital use among diabetes patients

The Affordable Care Act of 2010 authorized the continued availability of Medicare Advantage Chronic Condition Special Needs Plans (C-SNPs). This case study examines the model of care used by the largest such plan, Care Improvement Plus, and compares utilization rates among its diabetes patients with those of other beneficiaries enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare in the same five states. This special-needs plan emphasizes direct contacts with patients to help identify gaps in care and promote primary and preventive health care. The comparative analysis indicates that people with diabetes in the special-needs plan-particularly nonwhite beneficiaries-had lower rates of hospitalization and readmission than their peers in fee-for-service Medicare. For example, risk-adjusted hospital days per enrollee among special-needs plan participants were 19 percent lower than for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees (27 percent lower for nonwhite enrollees). Risk-adjusted physician office visits were 7 percent higher among C-SNP enrollees than among comparable fee-for-service enrollees (26 percent higher for nonwhite enrollees). Although this study does not include a cost analysis, we believe that savings from reduced hospitalizations are likely to more than offset the additional costs of enhanced primary care programs. Our study suggests that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services may be able to adapt methods used by the C-SNP program to improve care and outcomes for beneficiaries with a broad range of chronic diseases.     

The effect of HMOs on the inpatient utilization of medicare beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of joining HMOs (health maintenance organizations) on the inpatient utilization of Medicare beneficiaries. DATA SOURCES: We linked enrollment data on Medicare beneficiaries to patient discharge data from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) for 1991-1995. DESIGN AND SAMPLE: A quasi-experimental design comparing inpatient utilization before and after switching from fee-for-service (FFS) to Medicare HMOs; with comparison groups of continuous FFS and HMO beneficiaries to adjust for aging and secular trends. The sample consisted of 124,111 Medicare beneficiaries who switched from FFS to HMOs in 1992 and 1993, and random samples of 108,966 continuous FFS beneficiaries and 18,276 continuous HMO enrollees yielding 1,227,105 person-year observations over five years. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURE: Total inpatient days per thousand per year. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: When beneficiaries joined a group/staff HMO, their total days per year were 18 percent lower (95 percent confidence interval, 15-22 percent) than if the beneficiaries had remained in FFS. Total days per year were reduced less for beneficiaries joining an IPA (independent practice association) HMO (11 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 4-19 percent). Medicare group/staff and IPA-model HMO enrollees had roughly 60 percent of the inpatient days per thousand beneficiaries in 1995 as did FFS beneficiaries (976 and 928 versus 1,679 days per thousand, respectively). In the group/staff model HMOs, our analysis suggests that managed care practices accounted for 214 days of this difference, and the remaining 489 days (70 percent) were due to favorable selection. In IPA HMOs, managed care practices appear to account for only 115 days, with 636 days (85 percent) due to selection. CONCLUSIONS: Through the mid-nineties, Medicare HMOs in California were able to reduce inpatient utilization beyond that attributable to the high level of favorable selection, but the reduction varied by type of HMO.     

Medicare beneficiaries rate their medical care: new data from the MCBS (Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey)

The Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) contains a wealth of information about the people whose care is financed by the program. This article examines their satisfaction with medical care received and explores the relationship of these attitudes with the characteristics of subgroups of the enrolled population. Satisfaction with medical care among Medicare beneficiaries is found to be generally high (80-90 percent). Disabled Medicare beneficiaries are less satisfied than the aged, and health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees less satisfied than fee-for-service (FFS) patients. Others with lower-than-average satisfaction are people with poorer health status, those covered by Medicaid, and those without supplementary insurance.     

Patient selection in the ESRD managed care demonstration

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Service's (CMS') end stage renal disease (ESRD) managed care demonstration offered an opportunity to assess patient selection among a chronically ill and inherently costly population. Patient selection refers to the phenomenon whereby those Medicare beneficiaries who choose to enroll or stay in health maintenance organizations (HMOs) are, on average, younger, healthier, and less costly to treat than beneficiaries who remain in the traditional Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) sector. The results presented in this article show that enrollees into the demonstration were generally younger and healthier than a representative group of comparison patients from the same geographic areas.     

An Analysis of Unobserved Selection in an Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Group Model

The study assesses unobserved selection bias in an inpatient diagnostic cost group (DCG) model similar to Medicare's Principal Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Group (PIP-DCG) risk adjustment model using a unique data set that contains hospital discharge records for both FFS and HMO Medicare beneficiaries in California from 1994 to 1996. We use a simultaneous equations model that jointly estimates HMO enrollment and subsequent hospital use to test the existence of unobserved selection and estimate the true HMO effect. It is found that the inpatient DCG model does not adequately adjust for biased selection into Medicare HMOs. New HMO enrollees are healthier than FFS beneficiaries even after adjustment for the included PIP-DCG risk factors. A model developed over an FFS sample ignoring unobserved selection overestimates hospital use of new HMO enrollees by 28 percent compared to their use if they had remained in FFS. Models that better captures selection bias are needed to reduce overestimation of Medicare HMO enrollees' resource use.     

How the elderly fare in HMOs: outcomes from the Medicare competition demonstrations.

Because of concern about the effects of prepaid care on outcomes for elderly enrollees in health maintenance organizations (HMOs), a prospective study of access to care and functional outcomes was performed. HMOs with Medicare risk contracts in January 1985 (N = 17) were selected from ten communities and were matched for comparison with ten similar communities where no Medicare HMOs were in operation. Random samples of HMO enrollees (N = 2,098) and fee-for-service (FFS) nonenrollees (N = 1,059) were assessed at baseline and at follow-up one year later (HMO = 1,873, FFS = 916) to observe access to care and functional outcomes. At baseline, nonenrollees had more bed days and poorer functional status than HMO enrollees. While fewer HMO enrollees experienced declines in functional status between baseline and follow-up (e.g., patient's ability to function declined in one or more activities of daily living: HMOs at 5.3 percent versus FFS at 8.5 percent, p < .01), after controlling for other factors with logistic regression, enrollment status was not significantly associated with functional decline. Self-rated health, history of hospitalization, age of 80 or older and baseline functional status were predictive of decline in function. After controlling for baseline differences, HMO disenrollees also experienced similar functional declines at follow-up compared to continuously enrolled beneficiaries. These findings suggest that Medicare beneficiaries who belong to HMOs experience comparable rates of functional decline to those experienced by beneficiaries in the FFS sector with similar initial levels of function and health status. Together with results showing no significant difference in medical visits according to various symptoms, we conclude that access and quality of care delivered by HMOs is comparable to that provided in FFS settings.     

Spurring enrollment in Medicare savings programs through a substitute for the asset test focused on investment income

Fewer than one-third of eligible Medicare beneficiaries enroll in Medicare savings programs, which pay premiums and, in some cases, eliminate out-of-pocket cost sharing for poor and near-poor enrollees. Many beneficiaries don't participate in savings programs because they must complete a cumbersome application process, including a burdensome asset test. We demonstrate that a streamlined alternative to the asset test-allowing seniors to qualify for Medicare savings programs by providing evidence of limited assets or showing a lack of investment income-would permit 78 percent of currently eligible seniors to bypass the asset test entirely. This simplified approach would increase the number of beneficiaries who qualify for Medicare savings programs from the current 3.6 million seniors to 4.6 million. Such an alternative would keep benefits targeted to people with low assets, eliminate costly administrative expenses and obstacles to enrollment associated with the asset test, and avoid the much larger influx of seniors that would occur if the asset test were eliminated entirely.     

Alternative geographic adjustments in Medicare payment to health maintenance organizations

The payment received by a health maintenance organization (HMO) for its Medicare enrollees is proportionate to the average cost of Medicare beneficiaries in that county. However, HMO market share in an area appears to decrease costs in the fee-for-service sector, so that HMOs are paid less. For this and other reasons, alternative payment formulas may be desirable and several are developed in this article. The conceptually simplest location factor would be an input price index. An alternative strategy would also recognize systematic variation in utilization. Utilization rate is regressed on variables such as county population density and physicians per 1,000 persons. The predicted utilization rate times an input price index could serve as a location factor. The value of alternative location factors are presented for specific counties.     

Medicare beneficiaries less likely to experience cost- and access-related problems than adults with private coverage

The experiences of people covered by Medicare and those with private employer insurance can help inform policy debates over the federal budget deficit, Medicare's affordability, and the expansion of private health insurance under the Affordable Care Act. This article provides evidence that people with employer-sponsored coverage were more likely than Medicare beneficiaries to forgo needed care, experience access problems due to cost, encounter medical bill problems, and be less satisfied with their coverage. Within the subset of beneficiaries who are age sixty-five or older, those enrolled in the private Medicare Advantage program were less likely than those in traditional Medicare to have premiums and out-of-pocket costs exceed 10?percent of their income. But they were also more likely than those in traditional Medicare to rate their insurance poorly and to report cost-related access problems. These results suggest that policy options to shift Medicare beneficiaries into private insurance would need to be attentive to potentially negative insurance experiences, problems obtaining needed care, and difficulties paying medical bills.     

PMD6 Chronic Care Costs of New Medicare HMO Enrollees: Implications for Disease Management

Cost-effective care for chronic conditions is a growing concern of health plans enrolling increasing numbers of the elderly and disabled under Medicare risk contracts. This study provides evidence of the prevalence, patterns of care, and costs of chronic illnesses among new Medicare HMO enrollees. The results provide a foundation for estimates of the cost-effectiveness of drug therapy and care management programs that serve this group.
METHODS: We used national Medicare claims data to examine chronic care services and associated costs for a sample of 19,084 beneficiaries who enrolled in an HMO in 1995. We constructed three measures of cost: the total Medicare-covered cost, the cost of medical claims with the chronic condition coded as a diagnosis, and the regression-estimated effect of the chronic condition on cost.
RESULTS: 58% of the new Medicare HMO enrollees in our sample were treated for at least one of the selected chronic conditions in the six months before enrollment. One-third of the new enrollees had multiple conditions represented by diagnoses in more than one of eighteen chronic-condition groups. Persons with chronic conditions accounted for 93% of pre-enrollment Medicare costs among new HMO enrollees. Per 1,000 enrollees, pre-enrollment Medicare costs were greatest for those with hypertensive disease, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and diabetes.
CONCLUSIONS: The concentration of utilization and costs in those with chronic conditions suggests that appropriate drug therapy and care management for those with chronic conditions should be a top priority for HMOs with Medicare risk contracts. These estimates of prevalence suggest a need for HMOs to screen new Medicare HMO enrollees for chronic conditions immediately upon enrollment to ensure continuity of care.     

An outlier pool for Medicare HMO payments

Medicare pays "at-risk" health maintenance organizations a prospective capitation amount that is established by the adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) formula for estimating the amount enrollees would have cost had they remained in the fee-for-service sector. Because the AAPCC accounts for a very small percentage of the variation in beneficiary costs, considerable research has been devoted to improving the formula. A way to improve the explained variance is to remove the most expensive beneficiaries from the AAPCC payment system and pay for them separately. This article examines one approach to a payment system that combines the AAPCC with an outlier payment mechanism.     

Effects of supplemental coverage on use of services by Medicare enrollees

This article estimates the extent to which private insurance supplements affect use of services by Medicare enrollees. Three types of supplements to Medicare's coverage are examined--Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs), medigap (MGP) plans, and employment-based indemnity (EBI) plans. While each kind of supplement reduces cost sharing on Medicare-covered services, only HMOs do so without increasing enrollees' overall use of services. Use of services by HMO enrollees is about 4 percent lower than use by similar Medicare enrollees with no insurance supplement. By contrast, use of services by enrollees with MGP coverage is 28 percent higher, and use of services by enrollees with EBI plans is 17 percent higher.     

Ownership and average premiums for Medicare supplementary insurance policies

This article describes private supplementary health insurance holdings and average premiums paid by Medicare enrollees. Data were collected as part of the 1992 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). Data show the number of persons with insurance and average premiums paid by type of insurance held--individually purchased policies, employer-sponsored policies, or both. Distributions are shown for a variety of demographic, socioeconomic, and health status variables. Primary findings include: Seventy-eight percent of Medicare beneficiaries have private supplementary insurance; 25 percent of those with private insurance hold more than one policy. The average premium paid for private insurance in 1992 was $914.     

Health care use and expenditures of Medicare HMO disenrollees

We examine the impact of the first wave of Medicare health maintenance organization HMO withdrawals. With data from CMS and United Health Group, we estimate use and expenditure changes between 1998 and 1999 for HMO enrollees who were involuntarily dropped from their plan and returned to fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare using a difference-in-difference model. Compared to those who voluntarily left an HMO, involuntarily disenrolled beneficiaries had higher out-of-pocket expenditures, an 80 percent decrease in physician visits, 38 percent higher emergency room (ER) use and a higher probability of dying. The results suggest beneficiaries face significant costs and reduced health outcomes from unstable Medicare managed care markets.     

Health plan enrollment and mortality in the Medicare program

Prior studies have found that Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees have lower mortality (over a fixed observation period) than beneficiaries in traditional fee‐for‐service (FFS) Medicare. We use Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) data to compare 2‐year predicted mortality for Medicare enrollees in the HMO and FFS sectors using a sample selection model to control for observed beneficiaries characteristics and unobserved confounders. The difference in raw, unadjusted mortality probabilities was 0.5% (HMO lower). Correcting for numerous observed confounders resulted in a difference of ?0.6% (HMO higher). Further adjustment for unobserved confounders resulted in an estimated difference of 3.7 and 4.2% (HMO lower), depending on the specification of geographic‐fixed effects. The latter result (4.2%) was statistically significant and consistent with prior studies that did not adjust for unobserved confounding. Our findings suggest there may be unobserved confounders associated with adverse selection in the HMO sector, which had a large effect on our mortality estimates among HMO enrollees. An important topic for further research is to identify such confounders and explore their relationship to mortality. The methods presented in this paper represent a promising approach to comparing outcomes between the HMO and FFS sectors, but further research is warranted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in Medicare health maintenance organization enrollment: 1986-93

This study examines Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollment under the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) of 1982 (Public Law 97-248) from 1986 to 1993. It shows that there was moderate growth in the number of Medicare beneficiaries participating in the TEFRA risk program, reaching 1 in 20 beneficiaries in 1993. Medicare HMO enrollment is heavily concentrated in a few large plans, resulting in heavy concentrations geographically. California and Florida accounted for over one-third of Medicare HMO enrollees. One-half of the States have no Medicare HMO enrollment and one-fifth of the States have fewer than 15,000 Medicare HMO enrollees.     

Medicare spending for injured elders: are there opportunities for savings?

Claims for injury care provided to aged fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries cost Medicare more than $8 billion in 1999, almost 6 percent of Medicare claims spending for elders. More than one-fifth of aged FFS beneficiaries had an injury that resulted in a claim. Fractures, which were experienced by one in seventeen aged beneficiaries, were responsible far 67 percent of total injury claims expenses. Medicare could realize substantial savings if these injuries could be prevented; the program should consider underwriting effective prevention activities.