COVID-19 Recommendations for Assisted Living: Implications for the Future

ObjectivesAssisted living (AL) emerged over 2 decades ago as a preferred residential care option for older adults who require supportive care; however, as resident acuity increased, concern has been expressed whether AL sufficiently addresses health care needs. COVID-19 amplified those concerns, and an examination of recommendations to manage COVID-19 may shed light on the future of AL. This review summarizes recommendations from 6 key organizations related to preparation for and response to COVID-19 in AL in relation to resident health and quality of life; compares recommendations for AL with those for nursing homes (NHs); and assesses implications for the future of AL.DesignNonsystematic review involving search of gray literature.Setting and ParticipantsRecommendations from key governmental bodies and professional societies regarding COVID-19 in AL, long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in general, and NHs.MeasuresWe collected, categorized, and summarized these recommendations as they pertained to quality of life and health care.ResultsMany recommendations for AL and NHs were similar, but differences provided insight into ways the pandemic was recognized and challenged AL communities in particular: recommending more flexible visitation and group activities for AL, providing screening by AL staff or an outside provider, and suggesting that AL staff access resources to facilitate advance care planning discussions. Recommendations were that AL integrate health care into offered services, including working with consulting clinicians who know both the residents and the LTC community.Conclusions and ImplicationsLong-term care providers and policy makers have recognized the need to modify current long-term care options. Because COVID-19 recommendations suggest AL communities would benefit from the services and expertise of social workers, licensed nurses, and physicians, it may accelerate the integration and closer coordination of psychosocial and medical care into AL. Future research should investigate different models of integrated, interdisciplinary health care in AL.     

Forecasting COVID-19 Hospital Census: A Multivariate Time-Series Model Based on Local Infection Incidence

BackgroundCOVID-19 has been one of the most serious global health crises in world history. During the pandemic, health care systems require accurate forecasts for key resources to guide preparation for patient surges. Forecasting the COVID-19 hospital census is among the most important planning decisions to ensure adequate staffing, number of beds, intensive care units, and vital equipment.ObjectiveThe goal of this study was to explore the potential utility of local COVID-19 infection incidence data in developing a forecasting model for the COVID-19 hospital census.MethodsThe study data comprised aggregated daily COVID-19 hospital census data across 11 Atrium Health hospitals plus a virtual hospital in the greater Charlotte metropolitan area of North Carolina, as well as the total daily infection incidence across the same region during the May 15 to December 5, 2020, period. Cross-correlations between hospital census and local infection incidence lagging up to 21 days were computed. A multivariate time-series framework, called the vector error correction model (VECM), was used to simultaneously incorporate both time series and account for their possible long-run relationship. Hypothesis tests and model diagnostics were performed to test for the long-run relationship and examine model goodness of fit. The 7-days-ahead forecast performance was measured by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), with time-series cross-validation. The forecast performance was also compared with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the same cross-validation time frame. Based on different scenarios of the pandemic, the fitted model was leveraged to produce 60-days-ahead forecasts.ResultsThe cross-correlations were uniformly high, falling between 0.7 and 0.8. There was sufficient evidence that the two time series have a stable long-run relationship at the .01 significance level. The model had very good fit to the data. The out-of-sample MAPE had a median of 5.9% and a 95th percentile of 13.4%. In comparison, the MAPE of the ARIMA had a median of 6.6% and a 95th percentile of 14.3%. Scenario-based 60-days-ahead forecasts exhibited concave trajectories with peaks lagging 2 to 3 weeks later than the peak infection incidence. In the worst-case scenario, the COVID-19 hospital census can reach a peak over 3 times greater than the peak observed during the second wave.ConclusionsWhen used in the VECM framework, the local COVID-19 infection incidence can be an effective leading indicator to predict the COVID-19 hospital census. The VECM model had a very good 7-days-ahead forecast performance and outperformed the traditional ARIMA model. Leveraging the relationship between the two time series, the model can produce realistic 60-days-ahead scenario-based projections, which can inform health care systems about the peak timing and volume of the hospital census for long-term planning purposes.     

Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories

ObjectivesTo assist with planning hospital resources, including critical care (CC) beds, for managing patients with COVID-19.MethodsAn individual simulation was implemented in Microsoft Excel using a discretely integrated condition event simulation. Expected daily cases presented to the emergency department were modeled in terms of transitions to and from ward and CC and to discharge or death. The duration of stay in each location was selected from trajectory-specific distributions. Daily ward and CC bed occupancy and the number of discharges according to care needs were forecast for the period of interest. Face validity was ascertained by local experts and, for the case study, by comparing forecasts with actual data.ResultsTo illustrate the use of the model, a case study was developed for Guy’s and St Thomas’ Trust. They provided inputs for January 2020 to early April 2020, and local observed case numbers were fit to provide estimates of emergency department arrivals. A peak demand of 467 ward and 135 CC beds was forecast, with diminishing numbers through July. The model tended to predict higher occupancy in Level 1 than what was eventually observed, but the timing of peaks was quite close, especially for CC, where the model predicted at least 120 beds would be occupied from April 9, 2020, to April 17, 2020, compared with April 7, 2020, to April 19, 2020, in reality. The care needs on discharge varied greatly from day to day.ConclusionsThe DICE simulation of hospital trajectories of patients with COVID-19 provides forecasts of resources needed with only a few local inputs. This should help planners understand their expected resource needs.     

Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan

ObjectivesThe lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.MethodsWe constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.ResultsOver the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.ConclusionsRepublic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.     

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Remote Pulse-Oximetry Monitoring of Patients With COVID-19

ObjectivesSince 2020, COVID-19 has infected tens of millions and caused hundreds of thousands of fatalities in the United States. Infection waves lead to increased emergency department utilization and critical care admission for patients with respiratory distress. Although many individuals develop symptoms necessitating a ventilator, some patients with COVID-19 can remain at home to mitigate hospital overcrowding. Remote pulse-oximetry (pulse-ox) monitoring of moderately ill patients with COVID-19 can be used to monitor symptom escalation and trigger hospital visits, as needed.MethodsWe analyzed the cost-utility of remote pulse-ox monitoring using a Markov model with a 3-week time horizon and daily cycles from a US health sector perspective. Costs (US dollar 2020) and outcomes were derived from the University Hospitals’ real-world evidence and published literature. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were used to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 000 per QALY. We assessed model uncertainty using univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsModel results demonstrated that remote monitoring dominates current standard care, by reducing costs ($11 472 saved) and improving outcomes (0.013 QALYs gained). There were 87% fewer hospitalizations and 77% fewer deaths among patients with access to remote pulse-ox monitoring. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was not sensitive to uncertainty ranges in the model.ConclusionsPatient with COVID-19 remote pulse-ox monitoring increases the specificity of those requiring follow-up care for escalating symptoms. We recommend remote monitoring adoption across health systems to economically manage COVID-19 volume surges, maintain patients’ comfort, reduce community infection spread, and carefully monitor needs of multiple individuals from one location by trained experts.     

Impact of COVID-19: Nursing challenges to meeting the care needs of people with developmental disabilities

BackgroundPeople with developmental disabilities (DD) are a population at high-risk for poor outcomes related to COVID-19. COVID-19-specific risks, including greater comorbidities and congregate living situations in persons with DD compound existing health disparities. With their expertise in care of persons with DD and understanding of basic principles of infection control, DD nurses are well-prepared to advocate for the needs of people with DD during the COVID-19 pandemic.ObjectiveTo assess the challenges faced by nurses caring for persons with DD during the COVID-19 pandemic and how the challenges impact people with DD.MethodsWe surveyed 556 DD nurses, from April 6–20, 2020. The 35-item mixed-method survey asked nurses to rate the degree of challenges faced in meeting the care needs of people with DD. We analyzed responses based on presence of COVID-19 in the care setting and geographically. One open-ended question elicited challenges not included in the survey, which we analyzed using manifest content analysis.ResultsStartlingly, nurses reported being excluded from COVID-19 planning, and an absence of public health guidelines specific to persons with DD, despite their high-risk status. Obtaining PPE and sanitizers and meeting social-behavioral care needs were the most highly ranked challenges. COVID-19 impacted nurses’ ability to maintain adequate staffing and perform essential aspects of care. No significant geographic differences were noted.ConclusionsDD nurses must be involved in public health planning and policy development to ensure that basic care needs of persons with DD are met, and the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 in this vulnerable population is reduced.     

Access to Healthcare in a time of COVID-19: Sex Workers in Crisis in Nairobi,Kenya

ABSTRACT

This paper uses empirical data collected from 117 female sex workers living in informal settlements in Nairobi and 15 healthcare providers to highlight specific effects of COVID-19 and related restrictions on healthcare access for the sex workers. We highlight the existing gender and health inequalities that have now been reinforced by the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we focus on the most concerning healthcare needs for the sex workers including HIV prevention, care and treatment and sexual and reproductive healthcare. Our study findings reveal that the various restrictions imposed by the government to help curb the spread of COVID-19 to a large extent made it difficult for the sex workers to access their healthcare needs. The paper discusses the challenges of healthcare service delivery reflecting on some innovative and pioneering responses from health care providers to address the emergency situation.     

A country-level analysis comparing hospital capacity and utilisation during the first COVID-19 wave across Europe

BackgroundThe exponential increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic created an extraordinary overload and demand on hospitals, especially intensive care units (ICUs), across Europe. European countries have implemented different measures to address the surge ICU capacity, but little is known about the extent. The aim of this paper is to compare the rates of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in acute and ICU care and the levels of national surge capacity for intensive care beds across 16 European countries and Lombardy region during the first wave of the pandemic (28 February to 31 July).MethodsFor this country level analysis, we used data on SARS-CoV-2 cases, current and/or cumulative hospitalised COVID-19 patients and current and/or cumulative COVID-19 patients in ICU care. To analyse whether capacities were exceeded, we also retrieved information on the numbers of hospital beds, and on (surge) capacity of ICU beds during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic from the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM). Treatment days and mean length of hospital stay were calculated to assess hospital utilisation.ResultsHospital and ICU capacity varied widely across countries. Our results show that utilisation of acute care bed capacity by patients with COVID-19 did not exceed 38.3% in any studied country. However, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Lombardy would not have been able to treat all patients with COVID-19 requiring intensive care during the first wave without an ICU surge capacity. Indicators of hospital utilisation were not consistently related to the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The mean number of hospital days associated with one SARS-CoV-2 case ranged from 1.3 (Norway) to 11.8 (France).ConclusionIn many countries, the increase in ICU capacity was important to accommodate the high demand for intensive care during the first COVID-19 wave.     

Experiences of individuals self-directing Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services during COVID-19

BackgroundIn response to COVID-19, many state Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services (HCBS) programs increased flexibilities and options for self-direction.ObjectiveOur study sought to investigate the experiences of individuals self-directing during COVID-19. In particular we explored the following areas: 1) How have individuals maintained access to HCBS and workers?; 2) how have individuals maintained safety against COVID-19?; and 3) how have individuals maintained their health and well-being?MethodsWe partnered with community-based and national disability organizations for recruitment. We used a semi-structured interview guide to conduct remote interviews with 36 individuals from eleven states. The sample was diverse with regard to age, race/ethnicity, gender, and disability type.ResultsThree main themes emerged related to maintaining access to HCBS and direct care workers: 1) Benefits of authority to hire and fire; 2) benefits of ability to hire family members; and 3) fluctuations in needs and availability of workers. Two themes emerged related to maintaining safety against COVID-19: 1) Strategies for staying safe with workers; and 2) barriers in public health and service system response. Three themes emerged related to maintaining health and well-being: 1) Barriers to basic needs; 2) delaying needed care; and 3) use of telehealth and technology.ConclusionsThis study was among the first to examine the experiences of individuals self-directing their HCBS during COVID-19. The flexibility of the model provided many benefits, which have implications for future policy and practice. Findings also highlight barriers in maintaining health and well-being during COVID-19, illustrating the importance of planning for future public health emergencies.     

COVID-19 Assessment and Testing in Rural Communities During the Pandemic: Cross-sectional Analysis

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the need for urgent improvements in access to health care for rural, remote, and underserviced communities. The Renfrew County Virtual Triage and Assessment Centre (VTAC) was designed to provide access to COVID-19 testing and assessment with a family physician. The goal was to protect emergency departments and 911 paramedics while ensuring that nobody was left at home, suffering in silence. Residents were encouraged to call their own family physician for any urgent health needs. If they did not have a family physician or could not access their usual primary care provider, then they could call VTAC. This study reports on the output of a service model offering access to assessment and COVID-19 testing through a blend of virtual and in-person care options by a multidisciplinary team.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to assess the ability of VTAC to provide access to COVID-19 assessment and testing across rural, remote, and underserviced communities.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the data derived from the cases handled by VTAC between March 27, 2020 (launch day), and September 30, 2020.ResultsResidents from all 19 census subdivisions and municipalities of Renfrew County accessed VTAC. A total of 10,086 family physician assessments were completed (average 64 per day). Of these, 8535 (84.6%) assessments were to unique patient users. Thirty physicians provided care. Using digital equipment setup in the patients’ home, 31 patients were monitored remotely. VTAC community paramedics completed 14,378 COVID-19 tests and 3875 home visits.ConclusionsRenfrew County’s experience suggests that there is tremendous synergy between family physicians and community paramedics in providing access to COVID-19 assessment and COVID-19 testing. The blended model of virtual and in-person care is well suited to provide improved access to other aspects of health care post pandemic, particularly for patients without a family physician.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情下医务人员核心应急能力的调查

 目的 了解重庆地区医务人员应对新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的核心应急能力,分析影响COVID-19应急能力的相关因素。方法 采用方便抽样法,参考医务人员传染病突发事件核心应急能力指标体系设计调查问卷,调查分析重庆地区医务人员的COVID-19核心应急能力。结果 共收集725名医务人员的有效调查问卷,COVID-19核心应急能力总分为（128.14±25.38）分,多元线性回归分析显示,医务人员的年龄、职称、岗位类别、医院级别、科室及是否参加过COVID-19相关知识培训是影响医务人员核心应急能力的主要因素。结论 重庆地区医务人员的COVID-19核心应急能力处于中等水平,管理者应针对不同年龄、职称、岗位类别、科室进行培训,加强应急演练,提高医务人员对传染病突发事件的核心应急能力。     

International experiences of the active period of COVID-19 - Mental health care

AimTo summarise commonalities and variations in the mental health response to COVID-19 across different sites and countries, with a view to better understanding key steps not only in crisis management, but for future systemic reform of mental health care.MethodWe conducted a Rapid Synthesis and Translation Process of lessons learned from an international panel of experts, collecting on the ground experiences of the pandemic as it evolved in real time. Digital conferencing and individual interviews were used to rapidly acquire knowledge on the COVID-19 outbreak across 16 locations in Australia, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, the UK, and the USA.ResultsCOVID-19 has had massive impacts on mental health care internationally. Most systems were under-resourced and under-prepared, struggling to manage both existing and new clients. There were significant differences between sites, depending on the explosivity the pandemic and the readiness of the mental health system. Integrated, community mental health systems exhibited greater adaptability in contrast to services which depended on face-to-face and hospital-based care. COVID-19 has demonstrated the need for a new approach to rapid response to crisis in mental health. New decision support system tools are necessary to ensure local decision-makers can effectively respond to the enormous practical challenges posed in these circumstances.ConclusionsThe process we have undertaken has generated clear lessons for mental health policymakers worldwide, beyond pandemic planning and response to guide next steps in systemic mental health reform. Key here is achieving some balance between national leadership and local context adaptation of evidence.     

Access to food and health care during the COVID-19 pandemic by disability status in the United States

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has impacted people's access to food and health care. People with disabilities may be disproportionately affected by these outcomes due to structural and social barriers.Objective/HypothesisTo examine the relative prevalence of food insufficiency and unmet health care needs among the U.S. residents by vision, hearing, cognition, and mobility disability.MethodsWe used data from the Household Pulse Survey wave conducted from April 14 to April 26, 2021, when questions about functional disability were first included. Participants were asked about difficulty seeing, hearing, remembering or concentrating, and walking or climbing stairs. The outcomes of interest were food insufficiency, delaying needed medical care and not getting needed medical care. Poisson regression models with robust variance adjusted for potential confounders were used to examine the prevalence ratio of each of these outcomes by disability status in separate models for each type of disability.ResultsDuring April 14–26, 2021, 39.5% adults in the U.S. reported cognitive disability, 30.8% reported vision disability, 23.2% reported mobility disability, and 14.9% reported hearing disability. Adults with any type of disability were more likely than those without to experience food insufficiency (range of prevalence rate ratios [PRR]: 1.67–1.96), and delay (range of PRR: 1.48–1.87) or not get (range of PRR: 1.60–2.07) needed medical care.ConclusionsThese disparities suggest there is an urgent need to address the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with disabilities. The prioritization of disability data collection is key in achieving that goal.     

A Longitudinal,Clinical, and Spatial Epidemiologic Analysis of a Large COVID-19 Long-Term Care Home Outbreak

ObjectivesCOVID-19 has had devastating effects on long-term care homes across much of the world, and especially within Canada, with more than 50% of the mortality from COVID-19 in 2020 in these homes. Understanding the way in which the virus spreads within these homes is critical to preventing further outbreaks.DesignRetrospective chart review.Settings and ParticipantsLong-term care home residents and staff in Ontario, Canada.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal study of a large long-term care home COVID-19 outbreak in Ontario, Canada, using electronic medical records, public health records, staff assignments, and resident room locations to spatially map the outbreak through the facility.ResultsBy analyzing the outbreak longitudinally, we were able to draw 3 important conclusions: (1) 84.5% had typical COVID-19 symptoms and only 15.5% of residents had asymptomatic infection; (2) there was a high attack rate of 85.8%, which appeared to be explained by a high degree of interconnectedness within the home exacerbated by staffing shortages; and (3) clustering of infections within multibedded rooms was common.Conclusion and ImplicationsLow rates of asymptomatic infection suggest that symptom-based screening in residents remains very important for detecting outbreaks, a high degree of interconnectedness explains the high attack rate, and there is a need for improved guidance for homes with multibedded rooms on optimizing resident room movement to mitigate spread of COVID-19 in long-term care homes.     

Implementation of Telemedicine in a Tertiary Hospital–Based Ambulatory Practice in Detroit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Observational Study

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has forced the health care delivery structure to change rapidly. The pandemic has further widened the disparities in health care and exposed vulnerable populations. Health care services caring for such populations must not only continue to operate but create innovative methods of care delivery without compromising safety. We present our experience of incorporating telemedicine in our university hospital–based outpatient clinic in one of the worst-hit areas in the world.ObjectiveOur goal is to assess the adoption of a telemedicine service in the first month of its implementation in outpatient practice during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also want to assess the need for transitioning to telemedicine, the benefits and challenges in doing so, and ongoing solutions during the initial phase of the implementation of telemedicine services for our patients.MethodsWe conducted a prospective review of clinic operations data from the first month of a telemedicine rollout in the outpatient adult ambulatory clinic from April 1, 2020, to April 30, 2020. A telemedicine visit was defined as synchronous audio-video communication between the provider and patient for clinical care longer than 5 minutes or if the video visit converted to a telephone visit after 5 minutes due to technical problems. We recorded the number of telemedicine visits scheduled, visits completed, and the time for each visit. We also noted the most frequent billing codes used based on the time spent in the patient care and the number of clinical tasks (eg, activity suggested through diagnosis or procedural code) that were addressed remotely by the physicians.ResultsDuring the study period, we had 110 telemedicine visits scheduled, of which 94 (85.4%) visits were completed. The average duration of the video visit was 35 minutes, with the most prolonged visit lasting 120 minutes. Of 94 patients, 24 (25.54%) patients were recently discharged from the hospital, and 70 (74.46%) patients were seen for urgent care needs. There was a 50% increase from the baseline in the number of clinical tasks that were addressed by the physicians during the pandemic.ConclusionsThere was a high acceptance of telemedicine services by the patients, which was evident by a high show rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in Detroit. With limited staffing, restricted outpatient work hours, a shortage of providers, and increased outpatient needs, telemedicine was successfully implemented in our practice.     

Spillover Effects of COVID-19 on Essential Chronic Care and Ways to Foster Health System Resilience to Support Vulnerable Non-COVID Patients: A Multistakeholder Study

ObjectivesLittle empirical research exists on how key stakeholders involved in the provision of care for chronic conditions and policy planning perceive the indirect or “spillover” effects of the COVID-19 on non-COVID patients. This study aims to explore stakeholder experiences and perspectives of the impact of COVID-19 on the provision of care for chronic conditions, evolving modalities of care, and stakeholder suggestions for improving health system resilience to prepare for future pandemics.DesignQualitative study design.Setting and ParticipantsThis study was conducted during and after the COVID-19 lockdown period in Singapore. We recruited a purposive sample of 51 stakeholders involved in care of non-COVID patients and/or policy planning for chronic disease management. They included health care professionals (micro-level), hospital management officers (meso-level), and government officials (macro-level).MethodsIn-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted. All interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analyzed.ResultsOptimal provision of care for chronic diseases may be compromised through the following processes: lack of “direct” communication between colleagues on clinical cases resulting in rescheduling of patient visits; uncertainty in diagnostic decisions due to protocol revision and lab closure; and limited preparedness to handle non-COVID patients’ emotional reactions. Although various digital innovations enhanced access to care, a digital divide exists due to uneven digital literacy and perceived data security risks, thereby hampering wider implementation. To build health system resilience, stakeholders suggested the need to integrate digital care into the information technology ecosystem, develop strategic public-private partnerships for chronic disease management, and give equal attention to the provision of holistic psychosocial and community support for vulnerable non-COVID patients.Conclusions and ImplicationsFindings highlight that strategies to deliver quality chronic care for non-COVID patients in times of public health crisis should include innovative care practices and institutional reconfiguration within the broader health system context.     

Downstream health impacts of employment losses during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives The Canadian workforce has experienced significant employment losses during the COVID-19 pandemic, in part as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow COVID-19 transmission. Health consequences are likely to result from these job losses, but without historical precedent for the current economic shutdown they are challenging to plan for. Our study aimed to use population risk models to quantify potential downstream health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform public health planning to minimize future health burden.MethodsThe impact of COVID-19 job losses on future premature mortality and high-resource health care utilization (HRU) was estimated using an economic model of Canadian COVID-19 lockdowns and validated population risk models. Five-year excess premature mortality and HRU were estimated by age and sex to describe employment-related health consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns in the Canadian population.ResultsWith federal income supplementation like the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit, we estimate that each month of economic lockdown will result in 5.6 new high-resource health care system users (HRUs), and 4.1 excess premature deaths, per 100,000, over the next 5 years. These effects were concentrated in ages 45–64, and among males 18–34. Without income supplementation, the health consequences were approximately twice as great in terms of both HRUs and premature deaths.ConclusionEmployment losses associated with COVID-19 countermeasures may have downstream implications for health. Public health responses should consider financially vulnerable populations at high risk of downstream health outcomes.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.17269/s41997-021-00588-3.