Risk factors for recurrence after acute colonic diverticulitis: a systematic review

Purpose

Several factors may influence the risk of recurrence after an episode of acute colonic diverticulitis. Until now, a comprehensive systematic overview and evaluation of relevant risk factors have not been presented. This review aimed at assembling and evaluating current evidence on risk factors for recurrence after conservatively treated acute colonic diverticulitis.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched for studies evaluating risk factors for recurrence after acute diverticulitis treated non-surgically defined as antibiotic treatment, percutaneous abscess drainage, or by observation. Randomized clinical trials and observational studies were included. Analyzed outcome variables were extracted and grouped. No meta-analysis was performed due to low inter-study comparability. Variables were rated according to their likelihood of causing recurrence (no/low, medium, high).

Results

Of 1153 screened records, 35 studies were included, enrolling 396,676 patients with acute diverticulitis. A total of 50,555 patients experienced recurrences. Primary diverticulitis with abscess formation and young age increased the risk of recurrence. Readmission risk was higher within the first year after remission. In addition, the risk of subsequent diverticulitis more than doubled after two earlier episodes of diverticulitis and the risk increased further for every episode.

Conclusions

The best treatment strategy for recurrent diverticulitis is undetermined. However, the risk of a new recurrence seemed to increase after each recurrence making elective resection a viable option at some point after multiple recurrences depending on patient risk factors and preferences.

     

The risk of colorectal cancer after an attack of uncomplicated diverticulitis

Abstract

Objective. According to clinical guidelines, a colonoscopy is recommended after an attack of diverticulitis in order to exclude colorectal cancer (CRC). This is based on studies prior to the use of computerized tomography (CT) for confirmation of the diagnosis. We aimed to investigate the findings of a subsequent colonoscopy after an attack of uncomplicated diverticulitis. Material and methods. The study cohort consisted of all patients with the diagnosis of uncomplicated diverticulitis, who underwent a subsequent colonoscopy 6–8 weeks later during a 6-years period in the National University Hospital of Iceland. The diagnosis of diverticulitis was based on clinical symptoms verified with a CT of the abdomen. Relevant clinical information was obtained from medical records and from the Icelandic Cancer Registry. Results. A total of 282 patients had uncomplicated diverticulitis and 199 patients underwent endoscopy. Two patients had CRC (0.7%), diagnosed with diverticulitis but did not recover clinically. All other patients recovered clinically. Colonic polyps were found in 33 of 195 (17%) cases. In 19/33 (58%) cases the histology demonstrated hyperplastic polyps, and in 13/33 (39%) adenoma with mild dysplasia. Only 1/33 (3%) of the colonic polyps were >1 cm in size. Conclusions. Among patients experiencing an attack of uncomplicated diverticulitis the frequency of CRC was equal to what might be expected compared to the average risk in the population. In these patients a routine colonoscopy in the absence of other clinical signs of CRC seems hardly necessary, if the clinical course is uneventful and the patient recovers.     

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent pancreatitis after first attack of acute pancreatitis

Objective: To study the outcome of acute pancreatitis and risk factors for recurrent and chronic pancreatitis in a population based cohort of patients with first-time acute pancreatitis.

Methods: All patients with first-time acute pancreatitis from 2006–2015 in Iceland were retrospectively evaluated. Medical records were scrutinized and relevant data extracted.

Results: 1102 cases of first-time acute pancreatitis were identified: mean age 56yr, 46% female, 41% biliary, 21% alcohol, 26% idiopathic, 13% other causes, mean follow-up 4yr. 21% had ≥1 recurrent acute pancreatitis which was independently related to alcoholic (vs. biliary hazard ratio (HR) 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51–3.46), male gender (HR 1.48, 95%CI 1.08–2.04), and smoking (HR 1.62, 95%CI 1.15–2.28). 3.7% developed chronic pancreatitis. Independent predictors were recurrent acute pancreatitis (HR 8.79, 95%CI 3.94–19.62), alcoholic (vs. biliary HR 9.16, 95%CI 2.71–30.9), local complications (HR 4.77, 95%CI 1.93–11.79), and organ-failure (HR 2.86, 95%CI 1.10–7.42).

Conclusions: Recurrent acute pancreatitis occurred in one-fifth of patients. Development of chronic pancreatitis was infrequent. Both recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis were related to alcoholic acute pancreatitis, while recurrent acute pancreatitis was associated with smoking and male gender, and chronic pancreatitis to recurrent acute pancreatitis, organ-failure, and local complications.     

Image-guided conservative management of right colonic diverticulitis

AIM: To study the clinical outcomes of medical therapy in patients with right colonic diverticulitis. METHODS: The records of 189 patients with right colonic diverticulitis which was finally diagnosed by computed tomography, ultrasonography, or operative findings were retrospectively reviewed. RESULTS: Of the 189 patients hospitalized for right colonic diverticulitis, the stages of diverticulitis by a modified Hinchey classification were 26 patients (13.8%) in stage 0, 139 patients (73.5%) in stage Ⅰ a, 23 patients (12.2%) in stage Ⅰb, and 1 patient (0.5%) in stage Ⅲ. Medical therapy was undertaken in 185 of 189 patients (97.9%). One hundred and eighty three of 185 patients were successfully treated with bowel rest and antibiotics. Two patients in stage Ⅰb required a resection or surgical drainage because of an inadequate response to conservative treatment. Recurrent diverticulitis developed in 15 of 183 patients (8.2%) who responded to medicaltherapy. All 15 patients who suffered a second attack had uncomplicated diverticulitis, and were successfully treated with medical therapy. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that right colonic diverticulitis is essentially benign and image-guided conservative treatment is primarily required.     

Increased faecal calprotectin predicts recurrence of colonic diverticulitis

Background and aims

Colonic diverticulitis shows a high recurrence rate, but the role of faecal markers in predicting recurrence is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of faecal calprotectin (FC) in predicting recurrence of diverticulitis.

Patients/methods

A prospective cohort study was performed on 54 patients suffering from acute uncomplicated diverticulitis (AUD) diagnosed by computerized tomography (CT). After remission, patients underwent to clinical follow-up every 2 months. After remission and during the follow-up, FC was analysed. Recurrence of diverticulitis was defined as return to our observation due to left lower-quadrant pain with or without other symptoms (e.g. fever), associated with leucocytosis and/or increased C-reactive protein (CRP). Presence of diverticulitis was confirmed by means of CT.

Results/findings

The mean follow-up was 20 months (range 12–24 months). Forty-eight patients were available for the final evaluation, and six patients were lost to follow-up. During follow-up, increased FC was detected in 17 (35.4 %) patients and diverticulitis recurred in eight patients (16.7 %). Diverticulitis recurred in eight (16.7 %) patients: seven (87.5 %) patients showed increased FC during the follow-up, and only one (12.5 %) patient with recurrent diverticulitis did not show increased FC. Diverticulitis recurrence was strictly related to the presence of abnormal FC test during follow-up.

Conclusions

In the present prospective study, increased FC was found to be predictive of diverticulitis recurrence.     

Predictive factors for progression to chronicity or recurrence after the first attack of acute urticaria in preschool-age children

Introduction and objectivesPreschool-aged group is frequently affected by urticaria, and infections are the most frequently documented factors that cause acute urticaria in children. This prospective study was designed to investigate the underlying factors of acute urticaria in under five-year-old children and to describe predictive factors for progression to chronicity or recurrence after the first attack.Patients and methodsChildren younger than five years of age with acute urticaria were recruited between July 2015 and July 2016. Patients (n = 83) were grouped into those below and above two years of age. In order to assess the risk factors for progression to chronicity or recurrence, logistic regression analysis was performed.ResultsUpper respiratory tract infection was the most common detectable reason for acute urticaria (49.4%). Herpes Simplex Virus type 1 was significantly isolated in the cases with the manifestation of an acute single-episode urticaria (p = 0.042). Angioedema and food allergy were predominantly observed under two years old (p = 0.001, p = 0.006 respectively). A positive relationship was determined between the duration of urticaria and chronicity (r = 0.301, p = 0.006). The absence of atopic dermatitis (OR: 6.95, 95% CI: 1.35–35.67, p = 0.020), negative Herpes virus serology (OR: 4.25, 95% CI: 0.83–21.56, p = 0.040), and unknown etiology (OR: 3.30, 95% CI: 1.12–9.71, p = 0.030) were the independent risk factors for recurrent urticaria.ConclusionsPreschool-aged children with acute urticaria should be evaluated for infections at the time of admission. Patients with unknown etiology, negative Herpes virus serology, absence of atopic dermatitis, and long lasting urticaria should be followed up for chronicity and recurrence.     

Risk of recurrence and long-term outcomes after colonic diverticular bleeding

Purpose

Diverticular disease is one of the most common causes of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to evaluate the natural history, follow-up, and risk factors associated with re-bleeding (recurrence) in patients with colonic diverticular bleeding.

Methods

We reviewed patients with proven colonic diverticular hemorrhage from September 1993 to June 2012 at our institution. Recurrence was the main outcome measure.

Results

We identified 78 out of 95 patients with proven diverticular bleed who were treated non-operatively and were followed up for a median of 57.1 months. Thirty-seven (47 %) of these patients with a median age of 67 years developed recurrent diverticular bleed after a median time of 8.1 months. The bleeding originated from the left colon in 78 (83 %) out of 95 patients in the first bleeding episode and 31(84 %) out of 37 patients during the recurrent bleeding episode. Thirty-six patients (97 %) with recurrent diverticular bleed required surgical intervention. Old age at the time of initial bleeding was associated with recurrence (p?=?0.001). Patients with diverticulitis (p?<?0.0001), peripheral vascular (p?=?0.01), and chronic renal diseases (p?=?0.047) were found to have an increased risk for recurrent colonic diverticular bleed. We only had one perioperative mortality due to postoperative sepsis. All other mortalities were not directly associated with surgery.

Conclusion

Patients with a history of colonic diverticular bleed are prone to recur shortly thereafter. Certain risk factors including increased age, documented diverticulitis, history of peripheral vascular disease, and chronic renal failure may predispose to recurrence.     

Risk factors for hepatitis C recurrence after liver transplantation

Summary.  Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related end-stage liver disease is the main indication for liver transplantation performed in Europe and the United States. Recurrence of hepatitis C in the graft is universal and may lead to chronic hepatitis in most patients and to cirrhosis in 20–30% of patients within 5–10 years of transplantation. The natural history of HCV recurrence is highly variable but leads to a lower survival rate than other recurrent liver diseases. The immunosuppressed status and several other factors have been linked with the pattern and severity of recurrence. What remains controversial are those factors associated with fibrosis progression and how these could be modified to improve outcome of recurrent hepatitis C. No single factor but a combination of several factors is associated with fibrosis progression on the graft. The major factors associated with accelerated disease recurrence include: high viral load pre- (>10⁶ IU / mL) and / or early post-transplantation (>10⁷ IU / mL at 4 months), donor older than 40–50 years, prolonged ischaemic time, cytomegalovirus coinfection, over immunosuppression and / or abrupt changes in immunosuppression, HIV coinfection, infection by genotype 1b. Cautious follow-up of the pathology of the graft is mandatory including routine biopsies and / or noninvasive monitoring of fibrosis.     

Risk factors of recurrent pancreatitis after first acute pancreatitis attack: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background and aims: Few studies have been conducted in Asia on the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP). This study was designed to investigate characteristics of the disease to predict recurrence.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 617 patients that experienced a first AP attack between January 2009 and December 2014. Based on reviews of clinical and follow-up data, we attempted to identify risk factors of recurrence using Cox regression analysis.

Results: During a median follow-up of 3.2?years (range 3–72?months), 100(16.2%) of the 617 study subjects experienced one or more episodes of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP). Of these 100 patients, 75(75%) experienced one relapse, 12(12%) two relapses, and 13(13%) three or more relapses. The etiologies of RAP were an alcohol (48%), gallstone (31%), idiopathic (14%), and others (7%). Univariate analysis showed that an age of <60?years, male gender, smoking, an alcohol-associated etiology, and a local complication at index admission were significant risk factors of RAP. Cox regression analysis showed that an age of <60?years (HR = 1.602, 95% CI: 1.029–2.493), male gender (HR = 1.927, 95% CI: 1.127–3.295), and the presence of a local complication (HR = 3.334, 95% CI: 2.211–5.026) were significant risk factors of RAP development.

Conclusion: A local complication at index admission was found to be the strongest risk factor of RAP, and a male gender and an age of <60?years were significantly associated with RAP. Special attention and close follow-up should be afforded to patients with a local complication at index admission or male patients <60?years old.     

肝细胞癌冷冻消融术后早期复发的危险因素

目的:探讨肝细胞癌(hepatocellular carcinoma,HCC)患者冷冻消融术后影响早期复发的相关危险因素.方法:回顾分析90例直径≤5.0 cm的HCC行冷冻消融治疗后复发的患者的临床资料,分析影响冷冻消融术后早期复发的危险因素.结果:本组患者随访8-47(平均随访时间21.9±10.1)mo,共有57...     

Risk factors for recurrence after bowel resection for Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND Complications of Crohn's disease such as intestinal obstruction, fistula or perforation often need surgical treatment. Nearly 70%-80% patients with Crohn's disease would receive surgical treatment during the lifetime. However, surgical treatment is incurable for Crohn's disease. The challenge of recurrence postoperatively troubles both doctors and patients. Over 50% patients would suffer recurrence postoperatively. Some certain risk factors are associated with recurrence of Crohn's disease.AIM To evaluate the risk factors for endoscopic recurrence and clinical recurrence after bowel resection in Crohn's disease.METHODS Patients diagnosed Crohn's disease and received intestinal resection between April 2007 and December 2013 were included in this study. Data on the general demographic information, preoperative clinical characteristics, surgical information, postoperative clinical characteristics were collected. Continuous data are expressed as median(inter quartile range), and categorical data as frequencies and percentages. Kaplan-Meier method was applied to estimate the impact of the clinical variables above on the cumulative rate of postoperative endoscopic recurrence and clinical recurrence, then log-rank test was applied to test the homogeneity of those clinical variables. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors of postoperative endoscopic recurrence and clinical recurrence.RESULTS A total of 64 patients were included in this study. The median follow-up time for the patients was 17(9.25-25.75) mo. In this period, 41 patients(64.1%) had endoscopic recurrence or clinical recurrence. Endoscopic recurrence occurred in34(59.6%) patients while clinical recurrence occurred in 28(43.8%) patients, with the interval between the operation and recurrence of 13.0(8.0-24.5) months and 17.0(8.0-27.8) mo, respectively. In univariate analysis, diagnosis at younger age(P 0.001), disease behavior of penetrating(P = 0.044) and preoperative use of anti-tumor necrosis factor(TNF)(P = 0.020) were significantly correlated with endoscopic recurrence, while complication with perianal lesions(P = 0.032) and preoperative use of immunomodulatory(P = 0.031) were significantly correlated with clinical recurrence. As to multivariate analysis, diagnostic age(P = 0.004),disease behavior(P = 0.041) and preoperative use of anti-TNF(P = 0.010) were independent prognostic factors for endoscopic recurrence, while complication with perianal lesions(P = 0.023) was an independent prognostic factor for clinical recurrence.CONCLUSION Diagnostic age, disease behavior, preoperative use of anti-TNF and complication with perianal lesions were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease.     

The diagnostic criteria for right colonic diverticulitis: prospective evaluation of 100 patients

Background and aims  In this study, we evaluate prospective diagnostic criteria and propose a clinical scoring system for the evaluation of patients suspected to have right colonic diverticulitis (RCD) prospectively. Patients and methods  One hundred adult patients, who were clinically suspected to have appendicitis or RCD, and in whom we were not able to preoperatively rule out appendicitis, were examined prospectively. Patients were scored upon clinical presentation based on major diagnostic criteria included (1) no migration pain to the right lower quadrant; (2) a leukocyte count <10,000/mm³; (3) lateralized abdominal pain, and (4) a history of right colonic diverticulum (two points each). Minor diagnostic criteria (one point each) included (1) a history of right lower quadrant abdominal pain; (2) no symptoms of nausea or vomiting; (3) symptoms of constipation or diarrhea, and (4) abdominal pain for at least seven days. For patients in whom the diagnostic score exceeded two points, a contrast enhanced computed tomography (CT) scan of the abdomen was performed. Results  Thirteen patients had a final diagnosis of RCD. These diagnostic criteria demonstrated a sensitivity of 85%, a specificity of 68%, a positive predictive value of 28%, a negative predictive value of 97%, and a diagnostic accuracy of 70%. Among the 38 patients examined with CT, diagnoses for acute diverticulitis included nine true positives, 26 true negatives, two false positives, and one false negative. Conclusion  Performing CT scans after application of these diagnostic criteria gave a superior preoperative diagnostic rate for patients with RCD.     

Risk factors for clinical anastomotic leakage after right hemicolectomy

Purpose

Anastomotic leakage (AL) after right hemicolectomy is a devastating complication, and risk factors for AL in this setting are rarely investigated exclusively. Recent reports suggest that anastomotic type may influence the rate of AL in ileocolic anastomoses. We investigated risk factors and short-term outcomes in patients subjected to right hemicolectomy.

Methods

Data from all patients undergoing right hemicolectomy at our institution between 2009 and 2013 were collected in a database. Risk factors for clinical AL, 30-day mortality, hospital and intensive care unit stay were investigated. Stepwise logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding.

Results

22/445 (4.9 %) patients had AL. Median time to AL was 6 days (range 2–11 days). A stapled anastomosis was associated with an increased AL rate compared with the handsewn approach (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.84; 95 % CI 1.14–7.07; P?=?0.025). Other risk factors for AL were tobacco use (aOR 2.70; 95 % CI 1.06–6.86; P?=?0.037) and diabetes (aOR 5.95; 95 % CI 2.23–15.90; P?<?0.001). Anastomotic ischemia was present in 6/13 stapled and 1/9 handsewn leaking anastomoses, P?=?0.081, while generalized peritonitis was observed after 4/13 stapled and 7/9 handsewn leaking anastomoses, P?=?0.030. Thirty-day mortality was 2/22 (9.1 %) in patients with AL and 23/423 (5.4 %) in patients without AL, P?=?0.468, and 13/160 (8.1 %) and 12/285 (4.2 %), P?=?0.085, in stapled and handsewn anastomoses, respectively.

Conclusions

Risk factors for AL after right hemicolectomy were diabetes, tobacco use and stapled compared with handsewn anastomoses.

     

Predictive factors on CT imaging for progression of uncomplicated into complicated acute diverticulitis

Purpose

Since outpatient treatment and omitting antibiotics for uncomplicated acute colonic diverticulitis have been proven to be safe in the majority of patients, selection of patients that may not be suited for this treatment strategy becomes an important topic. The aim of this study is to identify computed tomography (CT) imaging predictors for a complicated disease course of initially uncomplicated acute diverticulitis.

Methods

CT imaging from a randomized controlled trial (DIABOLO study) of an observational vs. antibiotic treatment strategy of first-episode uncomplicated acute diverticulitis patients was re-evaluated. For each patient that developed complicated diverticulitis within 90 days after randomization, two patients with an uncomplicated disease course were randomly selected. Two abdominal radiologists, blinded for outcomes, independently re-evaluated all CTs.

Results

Of the 528 patients in the DIABOLO trial, 16 patients developed complications (abscess > 5 cm, perforation, bowel obstruction) within 90 days after randomization. In the group with a complicated course of initially uncomplicated diverticulitis, more patients with fluid collections (25 vs. 0%; p = 0.009) and a longer inflamed colon segment (86 ± 26 mm vs. 65 ± 21 mm; p = 0.007) were observed compared to an uncomplicated course of disease. Pericolic extraluminal air was no predictive factor.

Conclusion

Fluid collections and to a lesser extent the length of the inflamed colon segment may serve as predictive factors on initial CT for a complicated disease course in patients with uncomplicated acute colonic diverticulitis. These findings may aid in the selection of patients not suitable for outpatient treatment and treatment without antibiotics.

     

Management of uncomplicated acute diverticulitis

PURPOSE: A survey was conducted to document current medical treatment of patients with uncomplicated acute diverticulitis. METHODS: A survey was mailed to 667 fellows of The American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons certified by the American Board of Colon and Rectal Surgery. Queries were based on a clinical scenario of a patient with uncomplicated diverticulitis. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-three surveys (56 percent) were returned completed. The majority (66 percent) chose an abdominal computed tomographic scan as the initial diagnostic test. One-half used a single intravenous antibiotic with second-generation cephalosporins (27 percent) and ampicillin/sulbactam (16 percent) being the most common. Oral antibiotics given at discharge were ciprofloxacin (18 percent), amoxicillin/clavulanate (14 percent), metronidazole (7 percent), and doxycycline (6 percent). Combinations chosen were ciprofloxacin/metronidazole (28 percent) and metronidazole/trimethoprim sulfamethoxazole (6 percent), whereas 21 percent chose a variety of other antibiotics. The majority (74 percent) prescribed oral antibiotics for 7 to 10 days. Dietary recommendations at discharge were low residue (68 percent), regular (21 percent), and high residue (10 percent). Half of those surveyed believed avoidance of seeds and nuts were of no value. Follow-up examinations chosen included sigmoidoscopy and barium enema (29 percent), colonoscopy (25 percent), sigmoidoscopy (17 percent), barium enema (13 percent), and other (16 percent). Sixty-five percent of colon and rectal surgeons claim to handle more than half of their patients with uncomplicated diverticulitis on an outpatient basis. CONCLUSION: Variations in the management of uncomplicated sigmoid diverticulitis are noted among colon and rectal surgeons, especially in terms of antibiotic choice, discharge instructions, and follow-up outpatient studies. The survey results are compared with the conclusions reached in The American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons practice parameters. Documentation of practice pattern variation may serve as an educational tool for physicians to improve their quality and cost of medical care. Consideration should be given to better publicize already existing American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons practice parameters for this common entity.Supported in part by a grant from Smith Kline Beecham.     

Treatment of acute uncomplicated diverticulitis without antibiotics: risk factors for treatment failure

Purpose

Conservative treatment strategy without antibiotics in patients with uncomplicated diverticulitis (UD) has proven to be safe. The aim of the current study is to assess the clinical course of UD patients who were initially treated without antibiotics and to identify risk factors for treatment failure.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was performed including all patients with a CT-proven episode of UD (defined as modified Hinchey 1A). Only non-immunocompromised patients who presented without signs of sepsis were included. Patients that received antibiotics within 24 h after or 2 weeks prior to presentation were excluded from analysis. Patient characteristics, clinical signs, and laboratory parameters were collected. Treatment failure was defined as (re)admittance, mortality, complications (perforation, abscess, colonic obstruction, urinary tract infection, pneumonia) or need for antibiotics, operative intervention, or percutaneous abscess drainage within 30 days after initial presentation. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to quantify which variables are independently related to treatment failure.

Results

Between January 2005 and January 2017, 751 patients presented at the emergency department with a CT-proven UD. Of these, 186 (25%) patients were excluded from analysis because of antibiotic treatment. A total of 565 patients with UD were included. Forty-six (8%) patients experienced treatment failure. In the multivariable analysis, a high CRP level (>?170 mg/L) was a significant predictive factor for treatment failure.

Conclusion

UD patients with a CRP level >?170 mg/L are at higher risk for non-antibiotic treatment failure. Clinical physicians should take this finding in consideration when selecting patients for non-antibiotic treatment.

     

Independent risk factors for cumulative recurrence rate after first spontaneous pneumothorax

From 1975 until 1987, 122 patients without (Group I, mean age 34 yrs) and 20 with pre-existing lung disease (Group II, mean age 66 yrs) were treated for their first spontaneous pneumothorax. Mean follow-up was 5.2 yrs (max. 12.8 yrs). There were 32 chest X-ray verified recurrences, 72% occurring during the first 2 yrs. One, 5 and 10 yr cumulative recurrence freedoms +/- standard error in groups I and II combined were 85 +/- 3%, 75 +/- 4% and 69 +/- 5%, respectively. Using Cox regression analysis in groups I and II combined, pulmonary fibrosis, age greater than or equal to 60 yrs, and height/weight ratio were independent predictors of recurrence. Combinations of these risk factors identified four risk strata with 10 yr recurrence freedoms ranging from 83-0%. Independent predictors in group I alone were pulmonary fibrosis, age greater than or equal to 60 yrs, height/weight ratio, and nonsmoking, resulting in four risk strata with 10 yr recurrence freedoms ranging from 98-31%. Recurrences after first-time treated spontaneous pneumothorax showed a distinct time-related pattern and should accordingly be analysed as a time-related event. In both the total patient-population and in the group without pre-existing lung disease, independent predictors of recurrence were identified, which allowed the patients to be substratified into groups with widely different recurrence rates.     

Risk factors for recurrence after transarterial chemoembolization for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a standard therapy for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with 3 or fewer tumors of up to 3?cm (early-stage HCC); when RFA is unsuccessful or unfeasible, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) has often been performed. However, little information about the outcome of TACE for early-stage HCC has been reported and it is hard to decide whether to perform additional treatment following TACE in these difficult conditions. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for local or intrahepatic distant recurrence after TACE in early-stage HCC.

Methods

Among 1,560 newly diagnosed HCC patients who were admitted to Okayama University Hospital, 43 patients with early-stage HCC who received only TACE in at least one nodule were enrolled in this study. We analyzed the risk factors for local and distant recurrence by the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

The local recurrence rates and intrahepatic distant recurrence rates at 3 months, 6?months, and 1?year were 18.6, 33.4, and 61.8%, and 2.8, 2.8, and 10.2%, respectively. Among 12 parameters examined as possible risk factors for recurrence, heterogeneous Lipiodol uptake (risk ratio 3.38; 95% confidence interval 1.14–10.60) and high serum des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) (2.58; 1.03–7.14) were significantly correlated with local recurrence, and the presence of multiple tumors (10.64; 1.76–93.75) was significantly correlated with intrahepatic distant recurrence.

Conclusions

Heterogeneous Lipiodol uptake, high serum DCP, and multiple tumors are risk factors for recurrence in patients with early-stage HCC who have undergone palliative TACE.