Brief Report: Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

As research documenting disparate impacts of COVID-19 by race and ethnicity grows, little attention has been given to dynamics in mortality disparities during the pandemic and whether changes in disparities persist. We estimate age-standardized monthly all-cause mortality in the United States from January 2018 through February 2022 for seven racial/ethnic populations. Using joinpoint regression, we quantify trends in race-specific rate ratios relative to non-Hispanic White mortality to examine the magnitude of pandemic-related shifts in mortality disparities. Prepandemic disparities were stable from January 2018 through February 2020. With the start of the pandemic, relative mortality disadvantages increased for American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), and Black individuals, and relative mortality advantages decreased for Asian and Hispanic groups. Rate ratios generally increased during COVID-19 surges, with different patterns in the summer 2021 and winter 2021/2022 surges, when disparities approached prepandemic levels for Asian and Black individuals. However, two populations below age 65 fared worse than White individuals during these surges. For AIAN people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.25 (95% CI = 2.14, 2.37) in October 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.74 (95% CI = 1.62, 1.86), and for NHOPI people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.12 (95% CI = 1.92, 2.33) in August 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.31 (95% CI = 1.13, 1.49). Our results highlight the dynamic nature of racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and raise alarm about the exacerbation of mortality inequities for Indigenous groups due to the pandemic.     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Mortality in Spain: Monitoring Excess Mortality (MoMo) and the Surveillance of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths

Measuring mortality has been a challenge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we compared the results from the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system (MoMo) of excess mortality estimates, using a time series analysis, with those obtained for the confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE). The excess mortality estimated at the beginning of March 2020 was much greater than what has been observed in previous years, and clustered in a very short time. The cumulated excess mortality increased with age. In the first epidemic wave, the excess mortality estimated by MoMo was 1.5 times higher than the confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported to RENAVE, but both estimates were similar in the following pandemic waves. Estimated excess mortality and confirmed COVID-19 mortality rates were geographically distributed in a very heterogeneous way. The greatest increase in mortality that has taken place in Spain in recent years was detected early by MoMo, coinciding with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. MoMo is able to identify risk situations for public health in a timely manner, relying on mortality in general as an indirect indicator of various important public health problems.     

Brief Report: COVID-19 lockdowns show reduced pollution on snow and ice in the Indus River Basin

Melting snow and ice supply water for nearly 2 billion people [J. S. Mankin, D. Viviroli, D. Singh, A. Y. Hoekstra, N. S. Diffenbaugh, Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 114016 (2015)]. The Indus River in South Asia alone supplies water for over 300 million people [S. I. Khan, T. E. Adams, “Introduction of Indus River Basin: Water security and sustainability” in Indus River Basin, pp. 3−16 (2019)]. When light-absorbing particles (LAP) darken the snow/ice surfaces, melt is accelerated, affecting the timing of runoff. In the Indus, dust and black carbon degrade the snow/ice albedos [S. M. Skiles, M. Flanner, J. M. Cook, M. Dumont, T. H. Painter, Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 964−971 (2018)]. During the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020, air quality visibly improved across cities worldwide, for example, Delhi, India, potentially reducing deposition of dark aerosols on snow and ice. Mean values from two remotely sensed approaches show 2020 as having one of the cleanest snow/ice surfaces on record in the past two decades. A 30% LAP reduction in the spring and summer of 2020 affected the timing of 6.6 km³ of melt water. It remains to be seen whether there will be significant reductions in pollution post−COVID-19, but these results offer a glimpse of the link between pollution and the timing of water supply for billions of people. By causing more solar radiation to be reflected, cleaner snow/ice could mitigate climate change effects by delaying melt onset and extending snow cover duration.     

COVID-19 mortality,excess mortality,deaths per million and infection fatality ratio,Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020

BackgroundCOVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution.AimWe examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups.MethodsThe relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death.ResultsIn the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population.DiscussionDuring the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.     

Brief Report: Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (−9.1%), Spain (−8.4%), and Portugal (−6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.     

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe,October to December 2020

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.     

Differential mortality in COVID-19 patients from India and western countries

Background and aimsCOVID-19 disease has been associated with disproportionate mortality amongst world population. We try to elucidate various reasons for lower mortality rate in the Indian subcontinent due to COVID-19 pandemic.MethodWe carried out a comprehensive review of the literature using suitable keywords such as ‘COVID-19’, ‘Pandemics’, ‘disease outbreaks’ and ‘India’ on the search engines of PubMed, SCOPUS, Google Scholar and Research Gate in the month of May 2020 during the current COVID-19 pandemic and assessed mortality data.ResultsThe mortality observed in Indian and south Asian subcontinent is lower than in the west.Multifactorial reasons indicated for this differential mortality due to COVID-19 have been described in the current literature.ConclusionsThe effects of COVID-19 on the health of racial and ethnic minority groups are still emerging with disproportionate burden of illness and death amongst some black and ethnic minority groups. Overall the current COVID-19 related mortality appears to be lower in the health and resource challenged populous Indian subcontinent. Further scientific studies would be helpful to understand this disparity in mortality due to COVID-19 in the world population.     

Brief Report: Incentives can spur COVID-19 vaccination uptake

Recent evidence suggests that vaccination hesitancy is too high in many countries to sustainably contain COVID-19. Using a factorial survey experiment administered to 20,500 online respondents in Germany, we assess the effectiveness of three strategies to increase vaccine uptake, namely, providing freedoms, financial remuneration, and vaccination at local doctors. Our results suggest that all three strategies can increase vaccination uptake on the order of two to three percentage points (PP) overall and five PP among the undecided. The combined effects could be as high as 13 PP for this group. The returns from different strategies vary across age groups, however, with older cohorts more responsive to local access and younger cohorts most responsive to enhanced freedoms for vaccinated citizens.     

Excess mortality from COVID and non-COVID causes in minority populations

The 2020 US mortality totaled 2.8 million after early March, which is 17.3% higher than age-population–weighted mortality over the same time interval in 2017 to 2019, for a total excess death count of 413,592. We use data on weekly death counts by cause, as well as life tables, to quantify excess mortality and life years lost from both COVID-19 and non–COVID-19 causes by race/ethnicity, age, and gender/sex. Excess mortality from non–COVID-19 causes is substantial and much more heavily concentrated among males and minorities, especially Black, non-Hispanic males, than COVID-19 deaths. Thirty-four percent of the excess life years lost for males is from non–COVID-19 causes. While minorities represent 36% of COVID-19 deaths, they represent 70% of non–COVID-19 related excess deaths and 58% of non–COVID-19 excess life years lost. Black, non-Hispanic males represent only 6.9% of the population, but they are responsible for 8.9% of COVID-19 deaths and 28% of 2020 excess deaths from non–COVID-19 causes. For this group, nearly half of the excess life years lost in 2020 are due to non–COVID-19 causes.

Three distinct literatures about the COVID-19 pandemic provide the backdrop for this paper. The first documents that COVID-19 mortality is more heavily concentrated in male and minority populations (1–4). The second shows that the US death count in 2020 has exceeded expected deaths based on the recent historical average (henceforth, “excess” deaths) and that the COVID-19 death count does not entirely explain the gap, meaning deaths from non–COVID-19 causes contribute to above-average mortality in 2020 (5–7). The third literature translates 2020 excess mortality in the US to the life years lost from COVID-19 and non–COVID-19 causes (8–11). In this paper, we merge these three literatures by using data on vital statistics to examine the burden of excess mortality by race/ethnicity, age, and gender/sex. We then use life tables to translate deaths at particular ages into life years lost. As non–COVID-19 excess death rates are high among the young, the fraction of excess deaths that are from COVID-19 is larger than the fraction of life years lost from the virus alone. As non–COVID-19 excess mortality is much more common among males, minorities, and the young, we document that the life years lost from non–COVID-19 excess death is heavily concentrated in minority men.     

Brief Report: Emphasize personal health benefits to boost COVID-19 vaccination rates

The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines is a tremendous scientific response to the current global pandemic. However, vaccines per se do not save lives and restart economies. Their success depends on the number of people getting vaccinated. We used a survey experiment to examine the impact on vaccine intentions of a variety of public health messages identified as particularly promising: three messages that emphasize different benefits from the vaccines (personal health, the health of others, and the recovery of local and national economies) and one message that emphasizes vaccine safety. Because people will likely be exposed to multiple messages in the real world, we also examined the effect of these messages in combination. Based on a nationally quota representative sample of 3,048 adults in the United States, our findings suggest that several forms of public messages can increase vaccine intentions, but messaging that emphasizes personal health benefits had the largest impact.     

Estimates of mortality attributable to COVID-19: a statistical model for monitoring COVID-19 and seasonal influenza,Denmark, spring 2020

BackgroundTimely monitoring of COVID-19 impact on mortality is critical for rapid risk assessment and public health action.AimBuilding upon well-established models to estimate influenza-related mortality, we propose a new statistical Attributable Mortality Model (AttMOMO), which estimates mortality attributable to one or more pathogens simultaneously (e.g. SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza viruses), while adjusting for seasonality and excess temperatures.MethodsData from Nationwide Danish registers from 2014-week(W)W27 to 2020-W22 were used to exemplify utilities of the model, and to estimate COVID-19 and influenza attributable mortality from 2019-W40 to 2020-W20.ResultsSARS-CoV-2 was registered in Denmark from 2020-W09. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Denmark increased steeply, and peaked in 2020-W14. As preventive measures and national lockdown were implemented from 2020-W12, the attributable mortality started declining within a few weeks. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 from 2020-W09 to 2020-W20 was estimated to 16.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.0 to 20.4) per 100,000 person-years. The 2019/20 influenza season was mild with few deaths attributable to influenza, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.1 to 5.4) per 100,000 person-years.ConclusionAttMOMO estimates mortality attributable to several pathogens simultaneously, providing a fuller picture of mortality by COVID-19 during the pandemic in the context of other seasonal diseases and mortality patterns. Using Danish data, we show that the model accurately estimates mortality attributable to COVID-19 and influenza, respectively. We propose using standardised indicators for pathogen circulation in the population, to make estimates comparable between countries and applicable for timely monitoring.     

The effect of glucocorticoids on mortality in severe COVID-19 patients: Evidence from 13 studies involving 6612 cases

Background:Since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there is an urgent need for effective therapies for patients with COVID-19. In this study, we aimed to assess the therapeutic efficacy of glucocorticoids in severe COVID-19.Methods:A systematic literature search was performed across PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (up to June 26, 2021). The literature investigated the outcomes of interest were mortality and invasive mechanical ventilation.Results:The search identified 13 studies with 6612 confirmed severe COVID-19 patients. Our meta-analysis found that using glucocorticoids could significantly decrease COVID-19 mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45–0.79, P < .001), relative to non-use of glucocorticoids. Meanwhile, using glucocorticoids also could significantly decrease the risk of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation for severe COVID-19 patients (HR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.58–0.83, P < .001). Compared with using dexamethasone (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.50–0.92, P = .012), methylprednisolone use had a better therapeutic effect for reducing the mortality of patients (HR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.19–0.64, P = .001).Conclusion:The result of this meta-analysis showed that using glucocorticoids could reduce mortality and risk of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation in severe COVID-19 patients.